| Date post: | 18-Jan-2018 |
| Category: |
Documents |
| Upload: | victoria-sutton |
| View: | 216 times |
| Download: | 0 times |
Workforce Forecast to 2024 & Recent Trends
Consensus Economic Forecasting CommissionJanuary 29, 2016
Glenn MillsChief Economist
Center for Workforce ResearchMaine Dept. of Labor
www.maine.gov/labor/[email protected]
207-621-5192
Workforce forecastto 2024
Modest workforce growth in the short term due to continuing cyclical
recovery; advancing age structure dominates later in decade
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
610
630
650
670
690
710
730
Total Labor Force
Labor Force Employed
2014: 656,000 Emp; 696,000 CLF2019: 680,000 Emp; 705,000 CLF2024: 661,000 Emp; 686,000 CLF
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
Total Labor Force
Unemployment RateLabor Force Participation Rate
Labo
r For
ce P
artic
ipati
on &
Empl
oym
ent t
o Po
pula
tion
Rate
s
Unem
ploy
men
t Rat
e
2014: 63.9% LFPR; 60.2% E-Pop2019: 64.1% LFPR; 61.7% E-Pop2024: 62.5% LFPR; 60.2% E-Pop
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
Total Labor Force
Population Not in Labor ForceLabor ForceEmployedLabor Force Participation RateEmployment to Population RatioLa
bor F
orce
Par
ticip
ation
Rat
e &
Empl
oym
ent t
o Po
pula
tion
Ratio
Popu
latio
n In
Lab
or F
orce
&No
t in
Labo
r For
ce (i
n th
ousa
nds)
2014: 656,000 Emp; 1,090,000 Pop2019: 680,000 Emp; 1,101,000 Pop2024: 661,000 Emp; 1,101,000 Pop
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Age 16 to 24 Labor Force
Population Not in Labor ForceLabor ForceEmployedLabor Force Participation RateEmployment to Population RatioLa
bor F
orce
Par
ticip
ation
Rat
e &
Empl
oym
ent t
o Po
pula
tion
Ratio
Popu
latio
n In
Lab
or F
orce
&No
t in
Labo
r For
ce (i
n th
ousa
nds)
2014: 82,000 Emp; 144,000 Pop2019: 91,000 Emp; 145,000 Pop2024: 89,000 Emp; 141,000 Pop
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Age 25 to 34 Labor Force
Population Not in Labor ForceLabor ForceEmployedLabor Force Participation RateEmployment to Population Ratio
Labo
r For
ce P
artic
ipati
on R
ate
&Em
ploy
men
t to
Popu
latio
n Ra
tio
Popu
latio
n In
Lab
or F
orce
&No
t in
Labo
r For
ce (i
n th
ousa
nds)
2014: 112,000 Emp; 148,000 Pop2019: 122,000 Emp; 148,000 Pop2024: 122,000 Emp; 148,000 Pop
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Age 35 to 44 Labor Force
Population Not in Labor ForceLabor ForceEmployedLabor Force Participation RateEmployment to Population Ratio
Labo
r For
ce P
artic
ipati
on R
ate
&Em
ploy
men
t to
Popu
latio
n Ra
tio
Popu
latio
n In
Lab
or F
orce
&No
t in
Labo
r For
ce (i
n th
ousa
nds)
2014: 122,000 Emp; 155,000 Pop2019: 124,000 Emp; 148,000 Pop2024: 126,000 Emp; 150,000 Pop
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Age 45 to 54 Labor Force
Population Not in Labor ForceLabor ForceEmployedLabor Force Participation RateEmployment to Population RatioLa
bor F
orce
Par
ticip
ation
Rat
e &
Empl
oym
ent t
o Po
pula
tion
Ratio
Popu
latio
n In
Lab
or F
orce
&No
t in
Labo
r For
ce (i
n th
ousa
nds)
2014: 146,000 Emp; 190,000 Pop2019: 134,000 Emp; 166,000 Pop2024: 118,000 Emp; 146,000 Pop
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Age 55 to 64 Labor Force
Population Not in Labor ForceLabor ForceEmployedLabor Force Participation RateEmployment to Population RatioLa
bor F
orce
Par
ticip
ation
Rat
e &
Empl
oym
ent t
o Po
pula
tion
Ratio
Popu
latio
n In
Lab
or F
orce
&No
t in
Labo
r For
ce (i
n th
ousa
nds)
2014: 145,000 Emp; 214,000 Pop2019: 146,000 Emp; 215,000 Pop2024: 135,000 Emp; 199,000 Pop
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Age 65+ Labor Force
Population Not in Labor ForceLabor ForceEmployedLabor Force Participation RateEmployment to Population Ratio
Labo
r For
ce P
artic
ipati
on R
ate
&Em
ploy
men
t to
Popu
latio
n Ra
tio
Popu
latio
n In
Lab
or F
orce
&No
t in
Labo
r For
ce (i
n th
ousa
nds)
2014: 49,000 Emp; 238,000 Pop2019: 64,000 Emp; 279,000 Pop2024: 72,000 Emp; 317,000 Pop
Recent trends
Very different indications from the monthly household and payroll
surveys. What should we believe?
The Census Bureau’s recent estimate of the total population for 2015 continues the very flat trend
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1,300,000
1,310,000
1,320,000
1,330,000
1,340,000
1,350,000
Popu
latio
n
The household survey indicates theunemployment rate is the lowest in 14 years…
…The employment to population ratio is trending lower. It is below the U.S. average for the first time in 17 years…
…And the labor force and employment are contracting
Jan-
08 Jun
Nov Apr
Sep Feb
Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
Aug
Jan-
13 Jun
Nov Apr
Sep Feb
Jul
Dec
630,000
650,000
670,000
690,000
710,000
Civilian Labor ForceResident Employment
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
610
630
650
670
690
710
730
Total Labor Force
Labor Force Employed
2014: 656,000 Emp; 696,000 CLF2019: 680,000 Emp; 705,000 CLF2024: 661,000 Emp; 686,000 CLF
Why forecast labor force and employment growth for the next few years when they have been contracting?
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
Resident Employment (Household Survey)Nonfarm Jobs (Payroll Survey)
In the long run, the household and payroll surveys provide similar indications of growth, but can diverge in recoveries
The payroll survey is more volatile from month to month, but is based on a larger sample that provides a more reliable indication
of the direction and rate of change over multiple months
Jan-
08 Jul
Jan-
09 Jul
Jan-
10 Jul
Jan-
11 Jul
Jan-
12 Jul
Jan-
13 Jul
Jan-
14 Jul
Jan-
15 Jul635,000
645,000
655,000
665,000
590,000
600,000
610,000
620,000Resident EmploymentNonfarm Payroll Jobs
Res
iden
t Em
ploy
men
t
Non
farm
Pay
roll
Jobs
Inflation-adjusted total wage growth has accelerated as labor market conditions have tightened, reaching the pre-recession peak in the first two quarters of 2015…
2000
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
560,000
580,000
600,000
620,000
$5.6
$5.8
$6.0
$6.2
Jobs (left scale)Total Wages (right scale)
Wag
e &
Sal
ary
Jobs
Tota
l Wag
es (i
n B
illion
s of
201
4Q2
$)
…And average wages are rising at the fastest ratein more than a decade
2001
2001
2002
2003
2004
2004
2005
2006
2007
2007
2008
2009
2010
2010
2011
2012
2013
2013
2014
2015
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Ove
r Yea
r Cha
nge
in A
vera
ge W
ages
(4-Q
uarte
r Mov
ing
Ave
rage
in 2
014
Q2
$)
Maine is not alone facing the aging challenge
