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Working at a global scale: challenges for a worldwide tropical forest monitoring system Gilberto CâmaraGeneral DirectorNational Institute for Space ResearchBrazil
How are Earth’s tropical forests changing, and what are the consequences for human civilization?
A scientific question linked to public policy
Global Change
Where are changes taking place? How much change is happening? Who is being impacted by the change?
“Despite solid improvements by scientists in monitoring deforestation, the uncertainties are still substantial”. (Science, 27 April 2007)
What are the challenges?
Images – covering all of the world’s tropical forests
Methodology – using remote sensing algorithms to extract information
Software – reproducible methodology Capacity building – training large teams
worldwide Field analysis – understanding local forces Socio-economic analysis – understanding
globalization forces
EO data: benefits to everyoneImages: monitoring the planet
in a consistent manner
CBERS-2 image of Manaus
Monitoring Amazon Deforestation
Near real-time detection of newly deforested areas (DETER) Uses MODIS data (250 m resolution, 2 days revisit) Maps produced weekly Supports law-enforcement
Detailed assessment of deforestation (PRODES) Uses LANDSAT (30 m resolution, 18 days revisit)
and CBERS (20 m resolution, 25 days revisit) Other satellite data is used when needed Detailed maps produced yearly Supports policy-making
NASA’s mission formerly began with “To understand and protect our home planet…”. Those words have now been replaced with “Pioneering the future…”. The aim of better exploring the moon and Mars has attractions, but we agree with the sentiment “The planet that has to matter most to us is the one we live on.”
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
LANDSAT-5 1984
LANDSAT-8 2012
SPOT-4 1998
SPOT-5 2002
CBERS-2 2003
CBERS-2B 2007
CBERS-3 2009
IRS-P6 2003
IRS-P6/2 2008
Land Remote Sensing: 20 to 50 meter resolution
public commercial
India’s ResourceSat and the China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS) might be good sources of useful data to substitute for the loss of Landsat data during this period (pg. 37)
August 2007
USGS/EROS Data Center EOS Polar Ground NetworkInternational Cooperators (Landsat 5 & Landsat 7) IC (Landsat 7 only)LTAP+ Station (University of Puerto Rico) IC (Landsat 5 only) (Ar Riyad, Saudi Arabia)Campaign Station (Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia)
LANDSAT Ground Station Network
CBERS: data where it is most needed
CBERS ground stations will cover most of the Earth’s land mass between 300N and 300S
The Group on Earth Observations, GEO, is leading a worldwide effort to build a Global Earth Observation System of Systems, GEOSS.
TERRA (ASTER & MODIS)
LANDSAT
SPOT
ALOS
RESOURCESAT
IRS
CBERS
A Potential Land Surface Imaging Constellation
SAC-C
Source: Daniel Vidal-Madjar (France)
Number of Cloud Free Landsat 7 Data
79,223 Scenes with 30% or less cloud cover
12,785 unique, daytime path/row combinations(6/29/99 - 3/31/02)
source: USGS
The elements of a capacity building strategy
“Qualified specialists produce relevant results by using good-quality data with adequate tools in stable institutions”
Capacity building = people + data + infrastructure
Até 10%
10 - 20%
20 – 30%
30 – 40%
40 – 50%
50 – 60%
60 – 70%
70 – 80%
80 – 90%
90 – 100%
Total Deforestation up to 1997
Increment – 2000 a 2006
Até 5 %
5 - 10%
10 – 15%
15 – 20%
20 – 24%
24 – 29%
29 – 34%
34 – 39%
39 – 43%
43 – 49%
Large-Scale Agriculture
Agricultural Areas (ha)
1970 1995/1996 %
Legal Amazonia 5,375,16532,932,15
8 513
Brazil33,038,02
799,485,58
0 203
Source: IBGE - Agrarian Census
photo source: Edson Sano (EMBRAPA)
Unidade 1992 2001 %Amazônia Legal 29915799 51689061 72,78% Brasil 154,229,303 176,388,726 14,36%Fonte: PAM - IBGE
Cattle in Amazonia and Brazil
Cattle in Amazonia and Brazil
Unidade 1992 2001 %
Amazônia Legal 29,915,799 51,689,061 72,78%
Brasil154,229,30
3176,388,72
6 14,36%
photo source: Edson Sano (EMBRAPA)
Deforestation classes per area
13%22%27%32%31%68%38%More than 300 ha
10%11%11%12%14%6%12%150 a 300 ha
7%7%7%7%8%3%8%100 a 150 ha
16%14%13%12%13%6%12%50 a 100 ha
19%16%13%11%11%5%11%25 a 50 ha
25%20%16%14%12%6%11%10 a 25 ha
10%9%9%8%6%4%5%Less than 10 ha
2006200520042003200220012000
Tendência de Aumento Tendência de ReduçãoAproxim. Estável
Au
men
toR
edu
çãoE
stável
New Frontiers
Deforestation
Forest
Non-forest
Clouds/no data
INPE 2003/2004:
Dynamic areas (current and future)
Intense Pressure
Future expansion
Trends in deforestation and meat prices
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
1994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006
R$
ou
IG
P
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
K2
des
mat
ado
s
Preço boi (IGP) São Paulo Km2 desmatado na Amazônia
Source: Paulo Barreto (IMAZON)
Trends in deforestation and soya prices
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
R$
ou
IG
P
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
K2
des
mat
ado
s
Soja (Média anual) deflacionado R$/sc 60 kg - MT Km2 desmatado na Amazônia
Source: Paulo Barreto (IMAZON)