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Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working...

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Working capital management •Working capital cycle •Cash conversion cycle •The dynamics of working capital •Working capital policies •Overtrading •Cash management •Inventory management
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Page 1: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Working capital management

•Working capital cycle

•Cash conversion cycle

•The dynamics of working capital

•Working capital policies

•Overtrading

•Cash management

•Inventory management

Page 2: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

A typical working capital cycle and other cash flows

Page 3: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

The cash-conversion cycle as part of the working capital cycle

Page 4: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Summary of cash-conversion cycle

Page 5: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Calculation of cash-conversion cycle Average value of raw materials stock

= –––––––––––––––––––––––––– = X days Average usage of raw materials per day

Average level of creditors

Credit period = ––––––––––––––––––––––––– = X days Purchases on credit per day

Average value of work in progress

Work-in-progress = ––––––––––––––––––––––––– = X days Average cost of goods sold per dayperiod

Average value of finished goods in stock

= –––––––––––––––––––––––––––– = X days Average cost of goods sold per dayinventory period

Average value of debtors

= ––––––––––––––––––––––– = X days Average value of sales per day period

Less

Add

Add

Add

Raw materials stock period

Finished goods

Debtor-conversion

Page 6: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Figures invented in order to calculate a cash-conversion cycle

Page 7: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Cash-conversion cycle

Page 8: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Working capital tension

Page 9: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

The dynamics of working capital

Page 10: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Working capital changes when sales rise by 50 per cent

Page 11: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Working capital changes when sales rise by 50 per cent (continued)

Page 12: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Working capital changes when sales rise by 50 per cent (continued)

Page 13: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Policies for working capital

Page 14: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

£000

Turnover 2,000

Cost of goods sold 1,800 –––––– Profit

200 ––––––

Overtrading

•Overtrading occurs when a business has insufficient finance for working capital to sustain its level of trading

•A business is said to be overtrading when it tries to engage in more business than its working capital will allow

•Bits and Rams Ltd which in 2004 had a turnover of £2m and a profit of £200,000:

Page 15: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Cash flow for Bits and Rams Ltd in 2005

Page 16: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Why is cash important?

•There are three categories of motives ascribed to the holding of cash:– 1 Transaction motive

– 2 Precautionary motive

– 3 Speculative motive

•Operating cash is money held for operating purposes which is earning below-market interest

rates because the firm needs quick access to it on a regular basis

•Money held in cheque accounts is considered cash

Page 17: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

The cash trade-off

Page 18: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Baumol’s cash model•Assumes in a steady state environment where it uses

cash at a constant rate which is entirely predictable

•Cypressa pays out £100,000 per week and receives an inflow of £80,000 – additional cash need £20,000

•Beginning cash balance of £80,000

Page 19: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Finding the optimum cash balance

Page 20: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Establishing the position of Q*

Q = maximum cash balance

Q/2 = average cash balance

C = transaction costs for selling securities or arranging a loan

A = total amount of new cash needed for the period under consideration

K = the holding cost of cash opportunity cost

The total cost line consists of the following:

Average amount Opportunity Number of Cost of each

tied up cost transactions transactionx + x

2CA –––––K

Q A2

+Q

x K x C

Q* =

Page 21: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Cypressa

•Interest rate forgone, K, is 7 per cent

•Annual need for cash is (£20,000 × 52) = £1,040,000

•Number of times replenishment will take place each year:

A/Q* = £1,040,000 / £121,890

–––––––––––––––––– = £121,890 0.07

2 × £500 × £1,040,000Q* =

Page 22: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Some considerations for cash management

•Create a policy framework

– Establish a set of policies

– Simpler and quicker decisions to be taken at lower levels in the organisation

– Retain some flexibility for exceptional circumstances

•Plan cash flows

– Management need to know when cash is likely to be in surplus and when it is necessary to borrow

– Volume and length of time of surpluses or deficits need to be known in advance to obtain the best terms and select the most appropriate instruments

Page 23: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Cash Budget

•The cash budget is an estimate of cash inflows and outflows at fixed intervals over a future period

Page 24: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Cash Budget (continued)

Page 25: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Cedrus plc cash budget

Page 26: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Control cash flows

•Firms have numerous bank accounts so that some banking transactions can take place near to the point of business

•Problem: some bank accounts have high inflows others, high outflows

•Firms need a co-ordinating system

•Also an efficient mechanism is needed to funnel money to the centre

•Cash flow synchronisation

•Delays in the cheque-clearing system

•The float is the difference between the cash balance shown on the firm’s cheque book and the bank account

•Most banks offer an automated pooling of balances from many bank accounts into one master account

Page 27: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Inventory management

Page 28: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Stock levels over time in a predictable environment

Page 29: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Optimum inventory cost

Page 30: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Economic order quantity, EOQ

•If C is the cost of placing each order, A is the annual usage of the inventory items, and H is the cost of holding one unit of stock for

one year then:The annual ordering costs = Number of orders of per year x cost of each order

Qor

The costs of holding stock = Average stock level (in units) x Cost of holding each unit per year

2or

= Q/2 x H

HQ

= A/Q x CAC

The total cost is:

QAC +

2HQ

2AC–––H

EOQ =

Page 31: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Worked example Wicker plc

Wicker plc uses 20,000 units per year of a particular item of stock. It costs £28 for each order and the cost of

holding each of the units is £1.20. What is the economic order quantity?

2 x 20,000 x 28 ––––––––––––––1.20

EOQ = = 966 units

Cost an annual total of:

= (20,000 × 28)/966 + (1.20 × 966)/2 = £1,159.31

ACQ + 2

HQ

Page 32: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Inventory level pattern when there is a delay between order and

delivery

Page 33: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Inventory level pattern when there is uncertainty over the lead time

Page 34: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

The credit trade-off

Page 35: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

The cost of capital

•The cost of debt capital, both before and after tax considerations

•The difficulties in estimating the equity cost of capital and the key elements that require informed judgement

•The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for a company

•Evidence concerning how UK companies actually calculate the WACC

•The outstanding difficulties in this area of finance

Page 36: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Cost of capital

The cost of capital is the rate of return that a company has to offer finance providers to induce them to buy and hold a

financial security. This rate is determined by the returns offered on alternative securities with the same risk

•A word of warning– Behind any final number generated lies an enormous amount of

subjective assessment

– Good decision making comes from knowing the limitations of the input variables to the decision

– Knowing where informed judgement has been employed in the cost of capital calculation is required to make value-enhancing decisions and thus assist the art of management

– Precision is less important than knowledge of what is a reasonable range

Page 37: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

The required rate of return

•The capital provided to large firms comes in many forms

•The rate of return offered on government bonds and Treasury bills is the bedrock rate that is used to benchmark other interest rates. It is called the risk-free rate of return, given the symbol rf

•The cost of debt capital for a corporation kD, is:

kD = rf + RP

•If the current risk free rate is 6 per cent, then kD = 7 per cent for a company paying 100 basis point over the Treasury rate

•If the firm already has a high level of debt it may need to offer, say, 300 basis points above the risk-free rate

kD = rf + RP = 6 + 3 = 9%

Page 38: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Range of risk and returns •If the form of finance provided is equity capital then the investor is accepting a fairly high probability of receiving no return

•On the other hand, if the firm performs well very high returns can be expected.

Page 39: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Two sides of the same coin

Page 40: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

The weighted average cost of capital (WACC)

•A corporation is to be established by obtaining one-half of its £1,000 million of capital from lenders, who require an 8 per cent rate of

return for an investment of this risk class, and one-half from shareholders, who require a 12 per cent rate of return

Cost of debt kD = 8%

Cost of equity kE = 12%

Weight of debt VD/(VD + VE) £500 million / £1 billion WD = 0.5

Weight of equity VE/(VD + VE) £500 million / £1 billion WE = 0.5

VD = Market value of debt, VE = Market value of equity

Weighted average cost of capital, WACC = kE WE + kD WD

WACC = (12 × 0.5) + (8 × 0.5) = 10%

Page 41: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Illustration of WACC

•A firm invested £100,000 in a project that produced a net cash flow per year of £10,000 to infinity

•Debt holders require £4,000 per annum (8 per cent)

•Leaves £6,000 for equity holders – an annual return of 12 per cent on the £50,000 they provided

•An overall return of 10 per cent (the WACC) provides an 8 per cent return on the capital supplied by lenders and 12 per cent on the capital supplied by shareholders

•A return of £11,000 (i.e. 11 per cent) is generated

•Debt holders receive £4,000

•Equity holders get a 14 per cent return: £7,000 on their £50,000

Page 42: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Lowering the WACC and increasing shareholder returns

•If the company is expected to produce £100 million cash flow per year (to infinity), and its WACC is 10 per cent, its total

corporate value (‘enterprise’ value that is, the value of the debt and equity) is:

£100 million / 0.10 = £1,000 million

•Firm set up with 70 per cent debt

WACC = kEWE + kDWD

WACC = (12 × 0.3) + (8 × 0.7) = 9.2%

Firm value = £100 million /0.092 = £1,086.96 million

Page 43: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Lowering the WACC?

•If a rise in kE exactly offset the benefit from the increase in the debt proportion; leaving the WACC constant

WACC = kE WE + kD WD

WACC = (14.67 × 0.3) + (8 × 0.7) = 10%

•Modigliani and Miller left out at least two important factors:

– Tax

– Financial distress

Page 44: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

The benefit of tax

Page 45: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Lowering the WACC due to the tax shield

kDBT = Cost of debt before tax benefit = 8%

kDAT = Cost of debt after tax benefit = 8 (1 – T) = 8 (1 – 0.30) = 5.6%

•If we assume a 50 : 50 capital structure the WACC is:

WACC = kE WE + kDAT WD

WACC = (12 × 0.5) + (5.6 × 0.5) = 8.8%

•Investment project cash flows discounted at this lower rate will have a higher present value than if discounted at 10 per cent

•This extra value flows to shareholders

Page 46: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Financial distress constrains gearing

Page 47: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

WACC with tax and financial distress

•The required return on equity rises from 12 per cent to 13 per cent when the proportion of the debt in the capital structure rises to 65 per cent

•The effective rate of return payable on debt is 5.6 per cent after the tax shield benefit

•The WACC falls and the value available for shareholders rises

WACC = kE WE + kDAT WD

WACC = (13 × 0.35) + (5.6 × 0.65) = 8.19%

•Assume that 65 per cent gearing is the optimum debt/equity ratio

•If we go to 80 per cent debt we find this reduces shareholder wealth

WACC = kE WE + kDAT WD

WACC = (30 × 0. 2) + (7 × 0.8) = 11.6%

Page 48: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Worked example: Poise plc

VE

V

1.4

2.0

kDBT = 10%

kE = 20%

V = £2m

VE = £1.4m

VD = £0.6m

WE = ––– = ––– = 0.7

WD = ––– = ––– = 0.3VD

V

0.6

2.0

Page 49: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Poise: WACC calculation

kDAT = kDBT (1 – T)

kDAT = 10 (1 – 0.30) = 7%

WACC = kE WE + kDAT WD = 20% × 0.7 + 7% × 0.3 = 16.1%

•An investment of £1m at Time 0 produces after tax annual cash flows before interest payments of £161,000 as a perpetuity a 16.1 per cent rate of return

•The net cost of satisfying the debt holders after the tax shield benefit is £21,000

•Shareholders receive £140,000 per year, a 20 per cent return on the £700,000 they supplied

•If the project produces £100,000 the debt holders receive £21,000, leaving only £79,000 for the shareholders a mere 11.3 per cent return

Page 50: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

The cost of equity capital

•Ordinary shareholders are not explicitly offered payments. However, there is an implicit rate of return

Rate of return on shares = Risk-free rate + Risk premium

kE = rf + RP

•Risk-free rate gives a return sufficient to compensate for both impatience to consume and inflation

•To estimate the relevant risk premium on a firm’s equity we generally take two steps

•Stage one is to estimate the average extra return demanded by investors above the risk-free return to induce them to buy a portfolio of

average-risk level shares (rm – rf )

•Second stage is to adjust the risk premium for a typical (average-risk-level) share to suit the risk level for the particular company’s shares

under consideration, (rm – rf) is multiplied by a systematic risk factor

Page 51: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

The capital-asset pricing model (CAPM)

•The risk premium has generally been adjusted by a beta based on the extent to which a share had moved when a market index moved

kE = rf + (rm – rf )

•Beta is less than perfect

Page 52: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

The Gordon growth model method for estimating the cost of equity

capital•A company’s shares, priced at P, produce earnings of E per share and pay a dividend of d per share

•The company has a policy of retaining a fraction, b, of its earnings each year

•Under certain restrictive conditions, it can be shown that earnings, dividends and reinvestment will all grow continuously, at a rate of

g = br, where r is the rate of return on the reinvestment of earnings

P = ––––––d1

kE – gkE = ––– + g

d1

P

•We can derive g in other ways

•Problem obtaining a trustworthy estimate of the future growth rate

Page 53: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Retained earnings and debt

•The cost of retained earnings

•The cost of debt capital

The cost of debt is generally determined by the following factors:

– The prevailing interest rates

– The risk of default

– The benefit derived from interest being tax deductible

Page 54: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Traded debt

•UK bonds are normally issued with a nominal value of £100

PD = –––––– + –––––––

i = annual nominal interest (coupon payment)

Rn = amount payable upon redemption

kD = cost of debt capital (pre-tax benefit)

PD = current market price of bond

n

t = 1 (1 + kD)t

i

(1 + kD)n

Rn

Page 55: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Cost of traded debt example - Elm plc

•Elm plc issued £100m of bonds six years ago carrying an annual coupon rate of 8 per cent

•Due to be redeemed in four years for the nominal value of £100 each

•The next coupon is payable in one year and the current market price of a bond is £93

Year 0 1 2 3 4 Cash flow +£93 –£8 –£8 –£8 –£108

93 = –––––– + –––––––– + –––––––– + ––––––––1 + kD (1 + kD)2 (1 + kD)3 (1 + kD)4

8 8 8 108

Page 56: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Elm plc

With kD at 11 per cent the discounted cash flow on the right hand side = 90.69.

With kD at 10 per cent the discounted cash flow on the right hand side = 93.66.

kD = 10% + –––––––––––––– ( 11 – 10) = 10.22%93.66 – 93.00

93.66 – 90.69

VD = £100m × ––––– = £93m£93

£100• It would be wrong to use the coupon rate of 8 per cent on the

bond for the cost of debtkDAT = kDAT (1 – T) kDAT = 10.22 (1 – 0.30) = 7.15%

Page 57: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Cost of finance

•Financial Times, www.ic-community.co.uk/bonds, www.bondsonline.com

•Untraded debt

•Floating-rate debt

•The cost of preference share capital

•Hybrid securities

Pp = ––– kp

d1 kp = ––– Pp

d1

Page 58: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

WACC

•Calculating the weights

– Book (accounting) values for debt, equity and hybrid securities should not be used in calculating the weighted average cost of capital. Market values should be used

– Market capitalisation figure are available in Monday editions of the Financial Times for quoted companies – also websites

•The WACC with three or more types of finance

WACC = kEWE + kDATWD + kpWp

WE = ––––––––––––– WD = ––––––––––––– WP = –––––––––––––

VE VD VP

VE + VD + VP VE + VD + VP VE + VD + VP

Page 59: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

•Classic error: managers are sometimes tempted to use the cost of the latest capital raised to discount projects, SBUs, etc

•What about short-term debt?

– Should be included

– However, to the extent that this debt is temporary or offset by cash and marketable securities it may be excluded

•Finance and operating leases

WACC

Page 60: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Rates of return for projects of different systematic risk levels

Page 61: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Empirical evidence of corporate practice

Source: Arnold and Hatzopoulos (2000).

Page 62: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Method of calculating the weighted average cost of capital (percentage of respondents that use the WACC)

Source: Arnold and Hatzopoulos (2000).

Page 63: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

If the weighted average cost of capital is used, then how are the weights defined? (percentage of respondents)

Source: Arnold and Hatzopoulos (2000).

Page 64: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Gregory and Rutterford interviews•14 companies made use of the CAPM to estimate the equity cost of

capital, five used the dividend yield plus growth method

•Four used the historic real rate of return on equity and five used more than one method

•12 out of 14 using the CAPM used the yield on UK government bonds as the risk-free rate

•The remainder used a real (excluding inflation) rate of interest. None used the Treasury bill rate

•Two out of the 13 firms which estimated an equity risk premium chose a figure from a mid-1990s Barclays Capital Equity Gilt

Study

•11 firms chose a number in a narrow range of 4.5 per cent to 6 per cent

Page 65: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Gregory and Rutterford interviews

•All 11 firms that explicitly consider the cost of debt allow for the corporate tax rate to reduce the effective cost

•All the companies used the cost of long-term debt

•The majority chose to base the cost of debt on the cost of government debt and either take this as the cost of debt or add a credit risk premium

•Three companies took the yield on their own outstanding bonds and the remainder chose a long-term bond yield

•Ten out of 15 firms that calculated the WACC used a long-run target debt/equity ratio, five used the actual debt/equity ratio and one used both

•Ten companies chose to estimate a nominal WACC

•Five used a real WACC and three used both a nominal and a real WACC

•Corporations seem to make a distinction between the WACC and the hurdle rate

Page 66: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Implementation issuesHow large is the equity risk premium?

•The equity risk premium is a subjective estimate.

•In using historic data we are making at least two implicit assumptions:

– There has been no systematic change in the risk aversion of investors over time.

– The index being used as a benchmark has had an average riskiness that has not altered in a systematic way over time.

•Differing views

– Some City analysts

– Plump for 2 per cent

– Barclays Capital around 4 per cent, Competition Commission 3.5 and 5 per cent, Ofgem 2.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent.

Page 67: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

How reliable is CAPM’s beta?

•The use of historic betas for future analysis

Implementation issues

Source: Thomson Financial Datastream.

• The breakdown in the relationship between beta and return

Page 68: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Fundamental beta

1 The type of business that the company (SBU or project) is engaged in

2 Degree of operating gearing

3 Degree of financial gearing

Page 69: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Some thoughts on the cost of capital

•Progress

•Outstanding issues

– The current risk-free rate is the bedrock

– Return should be increased to allow for the risk of a share with average systematic risk

– Risk premium increased or decreased depending on the company’s systematic risk level

•Major difficulty calculating the systematic risk level

Page 70: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Capital structure: An introduction to the debate

•Different types of gearing

•The effect of gearing

•Differentiate business and financial risk

•The underlying assumptions, rationale and conclusions of Modigliani and Miller’s models in a world without tax

Page 71: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

The balance between debt and ordinary share captial

•Bristol Water announced plans to hand out £50m of cash to shareholders in 2003

– ‘Bristol Water was overcapitalised and it was time to do something for the shareholders’

•In 2001 BT had accumulated debt of over £30bn

– Sir Peter Bonfield recognised that he had allowed the debt to rise too high. ‘We identified the need to introduce new equity capital into the business to support the reduction in the unsustainable level of group debt’

– Raised £5.9bn through a rights issue

•Next implemented a share buy-back plan for up to 19 per cent of its shares in 2002, following the return of £435m to shareholders through buy-backs

in the 2000–2 period

– David Jones, chairman, said the share buy-backs represented the best way to enhance earnings per share

Page 72: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

At low gearing levels the risk of financial distress is low, but the cost of capital is high;

this reverses at high gearing levels

Note: *This assumption is considered in the text.

Page 73: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

What do we mean by ‘gearing’?

•Operating gearing refers to the extent to which the firm’s total costs are fixed

•Financial gearing concerns the proportion of debt in the capital structure

•Gearing and leverage are used interchangeably

•Balance sheet (book) figures

•Market values of debt and equity

•Capital gearing focuses on the extent to which a firm’s total capital is in the form of debt

•Income gearing is concerned with the proportion of the annual income stream (that is, the pre-interest profits) which is devoted to the prior claims of debtholders

Page 74: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Capital gearing

Capital gearing (1) =Long-term debt

Shareholders’ funds

Capital gearing (2) =Long-term debt + Shareholders’ funds

Long-term debt

Capital gearing (3) =All borrowing + Shareholders’ funds

All borrowing

Capital gearing (4) =Long-term debt

Total market capitalisation

Page 75: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Income gearing

•It may be erroneous to focus exclusively on assets when trying to judge a company’s ability to repay debts

Interest cover = ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––Profit before interest and taxInterest charges

The inverse of interest cover measures the proportion of profits paid out in interest – this is called income gearing

Page 76: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

The effect of gearing

•If operating profits are high, the geared firm’s shareholders will experience a more than

proportional boost in their returns compared to the ungeared firm’s shareholders

•Harby plc is shortly to be established

•Capital structures:

– 1 All equity – 10 million shares sold at a nominal value of £1

– 2 £3m debt (carrying 10 per cent interest) and £7m equity

– 3 £5m debt (carrying 10 per cent interest) and £5m equity

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Probabilities of performance levels

* Taxes are to be ignored.

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The effect of gearing

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Changes in shareholder returns for ungeared and geared

capital structures

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Expected returns and standard deviations of return to shareholders

in Harby plc

Page 81: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Expected returns and standard deviations of return to shareholders

in Harby plc (continued)

Page 82: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Expected returns and standard deviations of return to shareholders

in Harby plc (continued)

Page 83: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Business risk and financial risk

•Business risk is the variability of the firm’s operating income, that is, the income before interest

•Financial risk is the additional variability in returns to shareholders that arises because the financial structure contains debt

Page 84: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

The value of the firm and the cost of capital

V = –––––––C1

WACCValue of the firm, V = VE + VD

WACC = kE WE + kD WD

Assume the cost of equity capital is 20 per cent, the cost ofdebt capital is 10 per cent, and the equity and debt weightsare both 50 per cent

WACC = (20% × 0.5) + (10% × 0.5) = 15%

• The firm is expected to generate a perpetual annual cash flow of £1m

V = –––––––– = ––––– = £6.667mC1 £1m

WACC 0.15

Page 85: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Does the cost of capital (WACC) decrease with higher debt levels?

•Let us assume that the debt ratio is increased to 70 per cent through the substitution of debt for equity

•Scenario 1 The cost of equity capital remains at 20 per cent

WACC = kE WE + kD WD

WACC = (20% × 0.3) + (10% × 0.7) = 13%

V = –––––––– = ––––– = £7.69mC1 £1m

0.13WACC

• Scenario 2 The cost of equity capital rises due to the increased financial risk to exactly offset the effect of the lower cost of debt

WACC = kE WE + kD WD

WACC = (26.67% × 0.3) + (10% × 0.7) = 15%

Page 86: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Change the WACC

•Scenario 3 The cost of equity capital rises, but this does not completely offset all the benefits of the lower cost of debt

capitalWACC = kE WE + kD WD

WACC = (22% × 0.3) + (10% × 0.7) = 13.6%

C1 £1mV = ––––––– = –––––– = £7.35mWACC 0.136

• Scenario 4 The cost of equity rises to more than offset the effect of the lower cost of debt

WACC = (40% × 0.3) + (10% × 0.7) = 19%

V = ––––––– = –––––– = £5.26mWACC 0.19

£1mC1

Page 87: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Modigliani and Miller’s argument in a world with no taxes

Proposition 1

•The total market value of any company is independent of its capital structure

•The total market value of the firm is the net present value of the income stream. For a firm with a constant perpetual income

stream:

V = –––––––C1

WACC

The WACC is constant because the cost of equity capital rises to exactly offset the effect of cheaper debt

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MM: The assumptions

1 There is no taxation

2 There are perfect capital markets, with perfect information available to all economic agents and no transaction costs

3 There are no costs of financial distress and liquidation

4 Firms can be classified into distinct risk classes

5 Individuals can borrow as cheaply as corporations

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Pivot plc

•It needs £1m capital to buy machines, plant and buildings

•Required return is 15 per cent

•Expected annual cash flow is a constant £150,000 in perpetuity

•Structure 1 All-equity (1,000,000 shares selling at £1 each)

•Structure 2 £500,000 of debt capital giving a return of 10 per cent per annum. Plus £500,000 of equity capital (500,000

shares at £1 each)

•Structure 3 £700,000 of debt capital giving a return of 10 per cent per annum. Plus £300,000 of equity capital (300,000

shares at £1 each)

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Pivot plc: capital structure and returns to shareholders

Page 91: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Pivot plc: capital structure and returns to shareholders

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The cost of debt, equity and WACC under the MM no-tax model

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If WACC is constant and cash flows do not change, then the total

value of the firm is constant

V = VE + VD = £1m

V = –––––––– = –––––––––– = £1m C1 £150,000

WACC 0.15

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MM’s propositions

•Proposition 2

– The expected rate of return on equity increases proportionately with the gearing ratio

•Proposition 3

– The cut-off rate of return for new projects is equal to the weighted average cost of capital – which is constant regardless of gearing

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Cost of equity capital for a geared firm that becomes an all-equity

financed firm in a world with no taxesWhat would the cost of equity capital be if the firm described

below is transformed into being all equity financed rather than geared?

Perpetual future cash flow of £2.5m

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– = 0.40Market value of debt

Market value of debt + Market value of equity

kD = 9% regardless of gearing ratio. At a gearing level of 40%, kE = 22%.WACC = kE WE + kD WD

WACC = (22 × 0.6) + (9 × 0.4) = 16.8%

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Capital structure: further considerations

•Capital structure in a world with tax

•Financial distress

•Agency costs

•Borrowing capacity

•Managerial preferences

•Pecking order

•Financial slack

•Signalling

•Control

•Industry group gearing

•Motivation, reinvestment risk, operating and strategic efficiency

Page 97: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

The capital structure decision in a world with tax

•The introduction of taxation brings an additional advantage to using debt capital: it reduces the tax bill

•In a 30 per cent corporate tax environment a profitable firm’s cost of debt falls from a pre-tax 10 per cent to only 7 per cent after the tax benefit:

•10% (1 – T) = 10% (1 – 0.30) = 7%

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Financial distress

Financial distress: where obligations to creditors are not met or are met with difficulty.

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Costs of financial distress

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The cost of capital and the value of the firm with taxes and financial distress,

as gearing increases “Trade-off model”

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Some factors influencing the risk of financial distress costs

1 The sensitivity of the company’s revenues to the general level of economic activity

2 The proportion of fixed to variable costs

3 The liquidity and marketability of the firm’s assets

4 The cash-generative ability of the business

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The characteristics of the underlying business influences the risk of iquidation/distress, and therefore WACC, and the optimal gearing level

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Agency costs

•Agency costs are the direct and indirect costs of attempting to ensure that agents act in the best interest of principals as

well as the loss resulting from failure to get them to act this way

•Agency costs for lenders

•Information asymmetry

•Lenders will require a premium on the debt interest to compensate for the additional cost of monitoring

•Restrictions (covenants) built into a lending agreement

•Psychological element related to agency costs; managers do not like restrictions placed on their freedom of action

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A few more factors

•Borrowing capacity

•Managerial preferences

•Financial slack

•Signalling

•Control

•Industry group gearing

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Pecking order•Firms prefer to finance with internally generated funds

•If still more funds are needed, the debt market is called on first

•Only as a last resort will companies raise equity finance

•Myers (1984): ‘In this story, there is no well-defined target debt–equity mix, because there are two kinds of equity, internal and external,

one at the top of the pecking order and one at the bottom’

•Supposedly stock markets perceive an equity issue as a sign of problems – an act of desperation

•Adverse selection problem

•Line of least resistance

•Shares are more expensive to issue than debt capital, which is more expensive than applying previously generated profits

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Some further thoughts on debt finance

•Motivation

•Reinvestment risk

•Operating and strategic efficiency

Page 107: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

The WACC is U-shaped and value can be altered by changing

the gearing level

Page 108: Working capital management Working capital cycle Cash conversion cycle The dynamics of working capital Working capital policies Overtrading Cash management.

Lecture review•The risk of financial distress

•Short-term financing

•Borrowing capacity

•Gearing decisions

•MM models

•Financial slack, signalling, control, industry group gearing

•High gearing motivates managers to perform

•Reinvestment risk

•Operating and strategic efficiency


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