WORKPACKAGE-2“REAL-TIME ESTIMATION OF EARTHQUAKE SOURCE PARAMETERS”

SAFER PROJECT

Coordinator: Aldo Zollo, Università di Napoli Federico II - AMRA scarl

ID Partner Country

1 GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ) Germany

2 AMRA Scarl (AMRA) Italy

3 Universität Karlsruhe (TH) (UNIKARL) Germany

4 Bogazici Universitesi (KOERI) Turkey

6 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) Italy

8 National & Kapodistrian University of Athens (NKUA) Greece

9 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, DR20 (CNRS - DR20) France

10 Centre Sismologique Euro-Mediterranéen (CSEM/EMSC) France

11 Eidgenoessische TechnischeHochschule Zuerich (ETHZ) Switzerland

12 Insitutul National De Cercetare-Dezvoltare Pentru F izica Pamantului-INCDFP Bucaresti (NIEP)

Romania

13 Stiftelsen Norsar (NORSAR) Norway

15 Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMOR) Iceland

17 University of California Berkeley (UC Berkeley) USA

18 National Taiwan University (NTU) Taiwan

21 National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED)

Japan

22 Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI) Netherland

Development, optimization and testing of algorithms for real-time earthquake location and magnitude estimation adopting an evolutionary approach.

General Objective

• Task 2.1 “Real-time methodologies for event detection and location”

• Task 2.2 “Real-time methodologies for magnitude/ moment estimates”

• Task 2.3 “Near real-time processing of seismic arrays for earthquake rapid alert”

• Task 2.4 “Implementation and testing of virtual seismologist expert system”

• Task 2.5 “Application of developed techniques to selected European test sites”

WP2 - Tasks

Methodologies vs time from the eqk origin

timeEarthquake

seconds minutes hours

E-larms

Virt Seism

PRESToTnow

Array

Teleseismic moment magnitude

Fault Mapping

Rapid Spectral Analysis

Earthquake location

Earthquake magnitude

E-larms

Virt Seism

PRESTo

PreSeis

PreSeis

ElarmS VirttSeisTnow

(Horiuchi)

Array PreSeis PRESTo Tele-seismic Faultmapping RSP

UCB UCB KA KA

INGV-MEDNET INGVUCB

ETHINGV KA

Turkey KA CNRS

Iceland IMOUCB

ETHIMO IMO

Romania NIEPUCB

NIEPNORSAR

Greece NKUAUCB

NKUANIED

NKUANORSAR CNRS

Switzerland ETHUCB ETH

ESMDB AMRA CNRS

ISNet ETH AMRA

VEBSN ORFEUSEMSC GFZ CNRS

K-Net / Kik-Net KA AMRA CNRS

Synth. Acceler.(KA, AMRA) KA AMRA

MethodsDataProviders

Matrix Methods/Data/Partners

Eqk detection and location : Summary

Approaches:Real-Time (few seconds):

- Station barycenter (E-larms)- Tnow (Horiuchi)- RTLOC (Satriano et al.)- 3-station triggering (NIEP)

Near-Real time (tens of secs minutes):- Earthquake Information Distribution System (EMSC-ORFEUS)- Relative micro-eqk location for fault mapping (IMO)- Array location (NORSAR)

Italy Greece Europe Iceland

Conclusions:-Accurate eqk location a few secs after the P-waves (<4 stations)- problem: events outside the network- speed depends critically on the robustness of data transmission and distribution

Data sets and regions

Magnitude estimation: SummaryApproaches:Real-Time (few seconds):- P & S initial amplitude(PRESTo, Taiwan)- P-wave dominant period (E-larms, Taiwan)- CAV (Cumulative Absolute velocity) (KARL, Koeri)

Near-Real time (tens of secs minutes):- Spectral amplitudes (GeoAzur, GFZ)

Italy Greece Europe Iceland

Conclusions:-A few secs after the P-waves : ±0.7- After about 10 sec : ± 0.5- Problems: P-peak displacement saturates above M ~ 6.5, dominant period large uncertainty- need of near source data: accelerograms!

Data sets and regions

Bucharest:National seismic networkRegional seismic networkStrong motionArrays

Istanbul:EW + RapidResponse networkOnsite, based on thresholdsStrong motion + broadbandEW online, RR offline

Athens:Accelerometric networkRegional network2 arrays

Naples:Regional networkStrong-motion & Short period

Cairo:Regional strong motion/sismometric networks

SAFER test sites

Data Method(s) Partners

Italy, Naples

Regional Network data (ISNet), synthetic waveforms,DISS (fault) catalogue

E-larms,PRESTo, RSP

AMRA, INGV, UC Berkeley, CNRS

Romania, Bucharest

All available data recorded since 1996.Bukovina Array data

Magnitude P wave vertical acceleration.Array monitoring of Romania seismicity

NIEP, NORSAR,

Turkey, Istanbul

Synthetic set of eqk scenario events

PreSeis -NeuralNetwork, Optimization of seismic network for EEW,

KOERI, UNIKARL

Greece, Athens

Strong and week motion network2 arrays

Tnow , on-site approach ,Array based processing approach

NKUA, NORSAR, NIED

Egypt, Cairo

Microtremor data collected at a dense network. Borehole data.

Site amplification effects. Shake-map implementation

NRIAG, GFZ

WP2 research activities in SAFER test sites

PresentationsPRESTo: the PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem in southern Italy (15 min) Satriano C., Zollo A., Iannaccone G., Elia L., Martino C., Lancieri M. and Festa G. (AMRA, Naples)

Implementing the Virtual Seismologist Expert System (15 min) G. Cua, M.Fischer, T. Heaton, and S.Wiemer (ETH, Switzerland) Moved to the afternoon

Rapid magnitude determination for Vrancea early warning system and the April 25, 2009 Mw= 5.3 event (15min) A.Marmureanu,C.Ionescu,Gh.Marmureanu (NIEP, Romania)

Rapid determination of the energy magnitude Me (10 min) D. Di Giacomo1, S. Parolai1, H. Grosser (GFZ , Germany)