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Workshop C2 - Renewable Energy Systems: Adam Hinckley

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GCA / 1 Empowering a More Sustainable Infrastructure”
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Page 1: Workshop C2 - Renewable Energy Systems: Adam Hinckley

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“Empowering a More Sustainable Infrastructure”

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A Focused Approach to Sustainability

GCA Investment Management, LLC(1) invests in the public equity of companies that are solving constraints around energy, food, and water by providing sustainable products and services

The sector’s wide dispersion of returns fortifies the value of active management and superior stock selection guided by a ‘value with a catalyst’ bottom-up approach

SEASONEDINVESTMENT TEAM

Seasoned investment team with more than 30 years of combined relevant sector coverage

FOCUSED ON R.I.S.E.SECTORSFocused on R.I.S.E. sectors: Resources, Industrials, Services, and Energy

Low turnover portfolio management strategy designed to minimize returns ‘leakage’ and risk

“VALUE WITH A CATALYST”

Proud member of:

(1) GCA Investment Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor with the SEC effective 1/8/2015.

$380m AUM

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GCA Sustainable Growth Long Only Fund SnapshotOverview and Strategy

Where We Invest

Advanced Transportation

Agriculture & Consumer Products

Air & Environment

Energy & Industrials

Renewable Energy

Energy Efficiency

Power & Energy Infrastructure

Water

Investment Team Experience

David Smith, CFA, CA – Portfolio Manager> Portfolio Manager of the Gabelli Green Long Short Fund,

LP and the Gabelli RBI Long Only Fund, LP> Principal at Longbow Capital Partners, focused on

energy infrastructure> Senior Research Analyst at Smith Barney/Citigroup,

founded alternative energy and cleantech coverage group

Adam Hinckley, CFA – Senior Analyst> Vice President at Greentech Capital Advisors> Analyst at S.A.C. Capital Advisors with expertise in

technology and cleantech> Senior Research Analyst at CIBC World Markets

> Asset Management division of Greentech Capital Advisors, LLC, the leading specialized investment bank dedicated to the Sustainable Infrastructure sector, with 50 professionals across offices in New York, San Francisco, and Zurich

> Flagship public equity product seeks to maximize risk-adjusted returns by investing in public equities of companies solving constraints around energy, food, and water

> Fundamental strategy that aims to purchase the equity of companies trading at substantial discounts to intrinsic value

> Long-term investors with a low turnover portfolio management strategy to minimize returns “leakage” and risk

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Public Markets Track Record for Renewable Energy

5-Year Weekly Price Performance (Indexed to 9/9/11) (1)

Source: Bloomberg as of September 9, 2016.(1) Price performance of the MSCI World Index (MXWO) and WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index (NEX) indexed to September 9, 2011. Sharpe ratio calculation based

on geometric average of weekly returns annualized, weekly standard deviation of returns annualized, and a risk-free rate of 1.75%.

Investing in public renewable energy companies has proven difficult, with the broad indices drastically underperforming the MSCI World Index (MXWO) over the past 5-years

To add insult to injury, there has been significantly higher volatility associated with renewable energy companies…investors have been subjected to greater risk for lower

return!!!

151

112

50

75

100

125

150

175 MSCI World Index (MXWO) WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index (NEX)

Sharpe Ratio Comparison MXWO NEXAnnualized Return (Geometric) 8.5% 2.4%Annualized Standard Deviation 13.8% 21.5%Sharpe Ratio 0.49 0.03

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-20%

37%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Annual Avg

Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN) Price Change Global MW Installation Growth

Lesson Learned #1: Volume Growth Doesn’t Equate to Positive Investment Returns

Annual Price Change of Solar Stocks vs. MW Installation Growth (1)

Source: Bloomberg, BNEF.(1) 2016 price change of Guggenheim Solar ETF through September 9, 2016. 2016 installation growth based on average of BNEF’s “Conservative” and “Optimistic” forecast

scenarios.

Investors often (incorrectly) think that a large and growing end market is a sufficient condition to realize positive investment returns

Despite annual solar MW installation growth of 37% since the beginning of the decade, equity prices have declined 20% annually

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-

5

10

15

20 First Wind Global Wind Fund (FAN)First Wind Global Wind Fund (FAN)

Lesson Learned #2: Boom/Bust Cycles Will Persist as Long as Governments Subsidize Renewable Energy

Source: Bloomberg as of September 9, 2016.

-

25

50

75

100

125 Guggenhiem Solar ETF (TAN)Guggenhiem Solar ETF (TAN)

Annotated Price Charts of Renewable Energy ETFs

China slows wind project approvals

US PTC expected to expire

US PTC extended; commence construction

implemented

5-year US PTC extension and favorable IRS ruling

Italy lowers incentives

retroactively

Germany lowers FIT rates

Japan and China introduce favorable incentive programs

China curtails installed capacity

and sets lower subsidies

Unfavorable state policy slows US

residential demand

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Lesson Learned #3: Avoid Industries with Constantly Shifting Market Share

PV Cell Market Share Ranking by Year

Source: BNEF, NREL, Greentech Media.

Fragmented industries with many competitors jostling for market share are tough sectors for investors…they are subject to fierce pricing and irrational behavior

The one “foolproof” investment strategy in solar over the years has been to bet against any company that becomes the PV cell market share leader

2008 2010 2012 2014 2015JA Solar 7 2 3 2 1Trina Solar - 5 5 1 2Hanwha - 11 10 9 3First Solar 2 3 2 6 4Motech 5 9 4 7 5Jinko Solar - - 8 5 6Canadian Solar - 13 6 8 7Yingli 7 4 1 3 8Neo Solar Power Corp - 12 9 4 9Tongwei - - - - 10Gintech - 7 7 10 11SunPower 9 14 - 11 12Q-Cells 1 6 - - - Suntech 2 1 - - - Sharp 4 8 - - - Kyocera 6 10 - - - Sanyo 10 - - - -

In 8 years, 5 different companies have held the top market share for PV cell shipments

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Lesson Learned #4: Focus on Where the Puck is Going, Not Where It Is Now

Weekly Crystalline Silicon Global Cell Pricing ($/W) (1)

Source: BNEF.(1) Weekly data as of July 2011. Prior data is monthly.

Technology disruptors too often focus on the incumbent technology’s current price rather than what the price will be when the disruptive technology is commercialized…the rapid rise and fall of thin film solar companies exemplifies this point

By failing to understand the commodity price dynamics of crystalline solar, investors wasted billions of dollars on failed thin film solar investments

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

03-Aug-09 03-Aug-10 03-Aug-11 03-Aug-12 03-Aug-13 03-Aug-14 03-Aug-15 03-Aug-16

Mono Cells Multi Cells 10% Annual Decline 20% Annual Decline

Thin film solar companies operated under the

assumption that pricing would remain at elevated

levels

Sample of Bankrupt/Closed/Distressed Sale Thin Film Solar Companies Since 2009 Abound Solar Flexcell Nanosolar Signet Solar

AQT Global Solar NuvoSun SolibroAscent Solar HelioVolt OderSun SolyndraAvancis Honda Soltec OptiSolar SunfilmCalyxo Masdar PV RSI Uni-SolarEPV Solar MiaSole Schuco Wuerth Solar

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Looking Forward: Load Growth Slows and Shifts to Emerging Markets…

Global Electricity Demand Growth (1)

Source: IEA, BNEF.(1) Historical data from IEA’s “2015 World Key Energy Statistics.” Projections from BNEF’s “New Energy Outlook 2016: Global Overview.”(2) Assumes electric vehicles represent 35% of new sales by 2040.

All energy providers face the harsh reality that demand growth is much less robust than the past

With demand growth (albeit slower than the past) concentrated in emerging markets, new risks are introduced for energy companies and investors

Future demand growth would be even more anemic if not for the adoption of electric vehicles, which will

account for 8% of demand by 2040(2)

1973 – 2013 2015 – 2040

Global Annual Electricity Demand Growth

3.4% 1.7%

Total Electricity Demand Growth by Region, 2015-2040 (TWh)4.2

3.7

1.2 1.10.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1

-0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0 Total demand is expected to increase by 12,338 TWh, or 53%, by 2040; but many developed markets

will actually contract, while emerging markets see the big

increases

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…But Renewable Energy is Still the Clear Beneficiary

Technology Mix of Global Installed Generation Capacity

Source: BNEF’s “New Energy Outlook 2016: Global Overview.”.

Of the ~9,500 GW of gross capacity additions globally by 2040, solar and wind power will account for ~58% of the total

Despite slower overall power demand growth, renewable energy will continue to experience rapid growth rates due to competitive LCOE, retirements of fossil

generation, and lower capacity factors

Coal31%

Gas26%

Nuclear5% Hydro

18%

Wind7% Solar

4%Other

7%

Flexible Capacity

2%

Coal16%

Gas15%

Nuclear4%

Hydro12%

Wind13%

Solar29%

Other3%

Flexible Capacity

8%

2015 2040

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Implications for Future Investment ReturnsWe are long-term bulls on the renewable energy sector and see opportunity to make money, but investing in the space is not for the faint of heart

The solar and wind sectors are now cyclical industries (despite the long-term volume growth forecast), so forget “buy and hold” – positive investment returns will be

dependent on the ability to call troughs and peaks to the cycle1

Future gains will be made in companies solving the grid constraints from the increased intermittent renewable generation assets – energy storage, battery, and utility

software/controls represent the next big investor cycle2

It is unlikely that niche or unproven technologies (niche – geothermal, unproven – tidal, fuel cells) will change the dynamics outlined – there will be few venture investment

opportunities in renewable power generation due to the maturity of the sector3

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Investor Information

Primary Contact for Prospective Investors:

Teela RumfeltInvestor Relations / Operations

P: +1 (212) [email protected]

640 Fifth AvenueNew York, NY 10019

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This presentation and the verbal or written comments of any person presenting it, (the “Presentation”) was developed from publicly available information, without any independent investigation or verification thereof by Greentech Capital Advisors, LLC, taken together with its affiliates, (“GCA”), and GCA makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy and completeness of such information. Any valuations discussed in the Presentation are based solely on public information, are for illustrative purposes only and are inherently uncertain, subject to assumptions made in connection with such information and may not reflect actual values that may be achieved or realized by the company to which this Presentation is being presented (hereinafter referred to as, “you” or “your”). GCA makes no representation with respect to such valuations, and the inclusion of the valuations herein should not be regarded as an indication that GCA considers the valuations to be a reliable prediction of future value. GCA shall not have any liability with respect to such information or valuations.The Presentation is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, legal, tax, regulatory, financial, accounting or investment advice. Prior to entering into any transaction advised by GCA (a “Transaction”), you should determine, without reliance upon GCA, the economic risks and merits (and independently determine that you are able to assume these risks) as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences of any such Transaction. In this regard, by accepting this Presentation, you acknowledge that (a) GCA is not in the business of providing (and you are not relying on GCA for) legal, tax or accounting advice, (b) there may be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with any Transaction, (c) you should receive (and rely on) separate and qualified legal, tax and accounting advice and (d) you should apprise senior management in your organization as to such legal, tax and accounting advice (and any risks associated with any Transaction) and our disclaimers to these matters.The Presentation does not purport to be complete on any topic addressed. The information in the Presentation is provided to you as of the dates indicated and GCA does not intend to update the information after its distribution, even in the event that the information becomes materially inaccurate. Certain information contained in the Presentation includes calculations or figures which have been prepared by GCA and have not been audited or verified by a third party. Use of different methods for preparing, calculating or presenting information may lead to different results and such differences may be material.GCA expressly prohibits any redistribution of the Presentation without the prior written consent of GCA. The Presentation is not intended for distribution, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use is contrary to law, rule or regulation.GCA is engaged in or may be engaged in the future in investment banking, securities trading, brokerage activities and principal investing activities, as well as providing financial advisory services. The Presentation is not an expressed nor an implied agreement by GCA to act in any capacity with respect to you, and any such agreement shall only be as set forth in an executed engagement letter, the terms of which are to be agreed upon by you and GCA. The Presentation in no way restricts GCA or its affiliates from any other engagement, including acting in any capacity in a manner adverse to you.No fiduciary, advisory or agency relationship between GCA, on the one hand, and you and your affiliates, employees, officers, directors, or stockholders on the other hand, has been created in respect of the Presentation, and none of your affiliates, employees, officers, directors, or stockholders may rely on the Presentation.

Disclaimer


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