Workshop Proceedings Jakarta Flood Risk Management 2012

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Managing the Risks of DisasteRs in east asia anD the Pacific

Flood Risk Managementand Urban ResilienceWorkshop

May 2-3, 2012Jakarta, Indonesia

WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS


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2012 The World Bank

The International Bank or Reconstruction and Development

The World Bank Group 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433, USA

June 2012

Disclaimer: This report is a product o the sta o the World Bank with external contributions. The fndings, interpretations, and conclu-sions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views o the World Bank, its Board o Executive Directors, or the governmentsthey represent, or those o the National Disaster Emergency Agency o the Republic o Korea.

The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy o the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and otherinormation shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgments on the part o the World Bank concerning the legal status o anyterritory or the endorsement or acceptance o such boundaries.

Design: [email protected]

Cover photos: Anna Burzykowska. Map: Yannick Douet, Altamira Inormation.Back Cover photos: Let/Rinsan Tobing; Anna Burzykowska. Map: Yannick Douet, Altamira Inormation.


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Contents

Acronyms and Abbreviations ..................................................................................................................... 2

Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................. 3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................... 4

OPENING AND WELCOME REMARKS.................................................................................................... 7

Stean G. Koeberle, Country Director or Indonesia, World Bank ....................................................... 7

Bang Ki-Sung, Deputy Administrator, National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA),Republic o Korea.............................................................................................................................. 8

Fauzi Bowo, Governor o DKI Jakarta ................................................................................................ 9

PRESENTATION SUMMARIES

Session I: Overview o Cities and Flooding: A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Managementor the 21st Century ................................................................................................................................ 11

Session II: Show cases rom Countries/Cities .............................................................................................. 12

Panel Session 1: Understanding Flood Hazard and Its Impact ............................................................. 12

Panel Session 2: The Components o Integrated Flood Risk Management .......................................... 18

Session III: The International Development Partner View ............................................................................ 24

Special Session: Flood Preparedness Mapping Presentation ........................................................................ 29

Session IV: Implementing Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management ......................................................... 32

Session V: Challenges, Opportunities and Risks ......................................................................................... 34

Session VI: Follow-up and the Way Forward .............................................................................................. 37

Special Session: Field Trip .......................................................................................................................... 39

ANNEX 1: Workshop Agenda ................................................................................................................ 41

List o Figures

Figure 1 Cities and Flooding ..................................................................................................................... 11

Figure 2 Thailand Flood Risk and Drought Risk Areas ............................................................................. 13

Figure 3 Case Study Structural Countermeasures................................................................................... 15

Figure 4 Ho Chi Minh City Strategy Analysis .......................................................................................... 19

Figure 5 Jakarta Sea Wall Rehabilitation Plan ......................................................................................... 21

Figure 6 Japan Comprehensive Flood Management Reserve Water in the City .................................... 22

Figure 7 Decision-Support System in the Republic o Korea ...................................................................... 25

Figure 8 A Comparison o the Deterministic Approach and the Probabilistic Approach ............................. 27

Figure 9 Case study: Ho Chi Minh City Urban Risk Management ........................................................... 28

List o Boxes

Box 1 Guiding Principles or an Integrated Urban Risk Management ......................................................... 12

Box 2 Lessons rom GEJE 2011 ................................................................................................................. 26


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Flood Risk Management and Urban Resilience Workshop

2

Acronyms and Abbreviations

AIFDR Australia-Indonesia Facility or Disaster Risk Reduction

ARC American Red Cross

ARWS Automated Rainall Warning System

BMG Badan Meteorologi dan Geofsika (Indonesian Meteorology and Geophysics Body)

BNPB Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana Indonesia (Indonesia National Agency or DisasterManagement)

CCA Climate change adaptation

CoP Community o Practice

CSR Corporate social responsibility

DKI Daerah Khusus Ibukota (Special Capital Region)

DRM Disaster risk management

DRR Disaster risk reduction

EAP East Asia and PacifcEO Earth observation

ENSO El Nio-Southern Oscillation

GFDRR Global Facility or Disaster Reduction and Recovery

GEJE Great East Japan Earthquake

GIS Geographic Inormation System

HAII Hydro and Agro Inormatics Institute

IDM Iterative decision making

InaSAFE Indonesia Scenario Assessment or Emergencies

InSAR Intererometric Synthetic Aperture Radar

JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency

JUFMP Jakarta Urgent Flood Mitigation ProgramLGU Local Government Unit

MENA Middle East and North Arica

MoPAS Ministry o Public Administration and Security

MoU Memorandum o Understanding

NEMA National Emergency Management Agency

NDMC National Disaster Management Committee

NDMI National Disaster Management Institute

NDMO National Disaster Management Ofce

NGO Nongovernmental organization

NGPES National Growth and Poverty Eradication Strategy

PPP Public Private Partnership

P.R. China Peoples Republic o China

PT Perseroan Terbatas/ Limited Liability Company

SCFC Steering Center o Flood Control

Sqkm Square kilometer

UNOCHA United Nations Ofce or the Coordination o Humanitarian Aairs


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The organization o the workshop in Jakarta was led by the Disaster Risk Management (DRM) team in the East

Asia and Pacifc (EAP) region o the World Bank, supported by GFDRR and unded by the Republic o Korea. The

team is grateul or the organizational support o the World Bank Disaster Risk Management team in Jakarta.

This report summarizes the presentations and discussions which took place as part o the Flood Risk Manage-

ment and Urban Resilience Workshop in Jakarta, Indonesia in May 2012. The report was compiled by Eiko

Wataya and Irene Wijaya.

The graphic design o this publication was carried out by Miki Fernandez, Ultradesigns.

Acknowledgements

Photo

byThinkstock.com


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

oto by Thinkstock.com. September 2, 2010 - Tropical Storm Kompasu over Korea and China.

The Flood Risk Management and Urban Resilience Workshop, heldon May 2-3, 2012 at the Shangri-La Hotel, Jakarta, Indonesia, broughttogether over 50 policy makers rom national and local levels rom

seven East Asian countries (Indonesia, Laos PDR, the Philippines, Viet-nam, Thailand, China and the Republic o Korea), as well as experts,donors and partner organizations. The workshop was held to increasetechnical knowledge, share good practice rom around the region, andoster a community o committed leaders dealing with ood risks.


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May 2-3, 2012 / Jakarta, Indonesia / WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS

The Flood Risk Management and Urban Resil-

ience Workshop, held on May 2-3, 2012

at the Shangri-La Hotel, Jakarta, Indonesia,

brought together over 50 policy makers rom

national and local levels rom seven East Asian coun-

tries (Indonesia, Laos PDR, the Philippines, Vietnam,

Thailand, China and the Republic o Korea), as well as

experts, donors and partner organizations. The work-

shop was held to increase technical knowledge, share

good practice rom around the region, and oster a

community o committed leaders dealing with flood

risks.

The workshop is part o a comprehensive program

known as the Joint program implementation o

subregional projects in Asia an initiative sup-

ported by the Republic o Korea and the World Bank/

Global Facility or Disaster Reduction and Recovery

(GFDRR). The program is implemented in 15 coun-

tries and includes three subregional projects ocusing

on the issues o Glacier Lake Outburst Flood(GLOF)

in the Himalayan region, Typhoons in the Pacifc, and

Flooding and Resilience in East Asia. The organization

o the workshop in Jakarta was led by the Disaster

Risk Management (DRM) team in the East Asia and

Pacifc (EAP) region o the World Bank, supported by

GFDRR, and unded by the Republic o Korea. This

flagship program supports knowledge sharing, tech-

nology transer, capacity development, and learning

specifc to strengthening flood risk management and

urban resilience.

The workshop, which was held as part o a series o

launch events, is the frst step towards implement-

ing the recommendations presented in the recently

published World Bank report Cities and Flooding: A

Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management

or the 21st Century.1 Echoing the key messages o

the report, this two-day training event strengthened

the knowledge o participants on the issues acing

1 World Bank Guidebook Cities and Flooding can down-loaded rom the ollowing website: www.gdrr.org/urbanflooding.

their cities and dwellers, and inormed them o the

measures currently being implemented by various

countries in the region.2 The event highlighted the

ollowing global best practices and lessons learned in

the feld o urban flood risk management:

Accurate identication and communication o

disaster risks to stakeholders, particularly policy

makers, is crucial. Sophisticated technologies and

detailed data are available to identiy disaster risks.

Nevertheless, due to rapid urbanization, complexi-

ties o the urban environment and climate change,risks can never be ully ascertained. The development

o multiple risk scenarios based on available data is

an important step in understanding the probability

and consequences o risks. Accurate communica-

tion o risk inormation to key stakeholders is a vital

step in allowing policy makers to make inormed

decisions on structural and non-structural flood risk

management measures. It also allows the public to

understand the risks that it is acing and decide on

appropriate actions or behaviors. Graphical inorma-

tion o risks, which can be created based on dierent

scenarios, is considered as a preerable decision-sup-

port tool or policy makers and disaster managers.

The use o open-source data and applications would

contribute to the sustainability o an integrated flood

risk management system.

Lack o coordination among stakeholders is one

o the most common challenges in food risk

management. A lack o coordination oten exists

between government levels, sectoral agencies, gov-

ernments and NGOs, and the private sector and

developers. Increased coordination may lead to stan-

dardized data ormats, procedures, and tools or risk

analysis, harmonized policies and regulations, and

identifcation o joint or complementary programs,

which can subsequently enhance the eectiveness

and sustainability o chosen flood risk manage-

ment measures. Coordination among government

2 All the presentations can downloaded rom the ollow-ing website: http://www.gdrr.org/gdrr/node/1185.


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6

agencies can be improved by mainstreaming flood

risk management into the sustainable development

agenda. This can provide each agency with a com-

mon, yet specifc, higher-level goal that directly or

indirectly addresses flood risks.

Appropriate incentives are necessary to addressthe political and social context o food risk man-

agement. The adoption o a flood risk management

agenda is shaped by the specifc political context. Pol-

iticians, the private sector, and developers respond to

incentives. Appropriate incentives must be identifed

and used to promote the adoption and implemen-

tation o flood risk management among stakehold-

ers, such as politicians and policy makers, the public

and private sectors and developers. A social develop-

ment approach, incorporating incentives as well as

law enorcement, is required to influence the behav-ior o populations living in high-risk areas, especially

the poor and socially disadvantaged.

Robustness is a key consideration in striking a

balance between structural and non-structural

measures. Rapid and unplanned urbanization, cli-

mate change, and the complexity o urban systems

are generating uncertainties linked to current and

uture risks. Structural (hard-engineered) measures

ace certain limitations as they are costly and can only

eectively address hazard up to a certain level. Struc-

tural measures may ail in the ace o unprecedented

hazard, which is always a probability. Non-struc-

tural (non-engineered) measures are more cost-efcient and can be highly eective in reducing the

consequence o hazards. A combination o structural

and non-structural measures is thereore required to

build a robust flood risk management system that

can accommodate residual risk, uncertainties, and

extremities.

A number o ollow-up actions were identied

to implement an integrated food risk manage-

ment approach in the countries participating at

the workshop. A virtual system will be put in place

as an initial orm o a community o practice (CoP)or urban flood risk management to encourage ur-

ther peer-to-peer knowledge exchange and oster

regional cooperation. This report summarizing the

proceedings o the workshop serves as a knowledge

resource or participants, as well as those members

o the public that are interested in flood risk manage-

ment and urban resilience.

PhotosbyRinsanTobing

Workshop participants.


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Jakarta is oten conronted with requent flood-

ing, and has taken bold steps to address the

issue, notably by ocusing on the social aspects o

communities at risk. The World Bank is privileged

to provide support and assistance to the city o

Jakarta as part o its flood mitigation eorts.

The theme o this workshop flood risk man-agement and urban resilience is very pertinent

considering the requency o the occurrence and

the impact o flooding in recent years in many

o the rapidly growing cities in developing coun-

tries. With a higher degree o economic inte-

gration and connectivity in the East Asia and

Pacifc (EAP) region, major flooding in one city

will unortunately have signifcant economic and

social impacts in other cities, regions, and coun-

tries.

The World Bank sees rapid urbanization as bothan opportunity and a challenge. Urbanization

creates opportunities or increasing economic

growth and poverty reduction. At the same time,

with the imminent threat o climate change and

increased vulnerability to disasters, urbanization

also potentially exposes a greater number o peo-

ple to the risk o serious catastrophic events.

The single solution model o flood control using

structural mitigation measures is very expensive

and oten creates new problems, both upstream

and downstream. With one o the highest eco-

nomic growth rates in the world, the region has a

unique opportunity to consider flood mitigation

as a sound investment that not only has a direct

economic value but also contributes to prevent-ing losses.

City representatives, national governments, and

private sectors participating in the workshop

were invited to exchange their views and experi-

ences in addressing urban flooding problems and

building resilience. There is much innovation in

the region that can be shared in this orum, with

opportunities to scale up and replicate successul

experiences in other cities as well, while at the

same time avoiding the mistakes o the past.

This initiative is one o the many South-South

knowledge exchange opportunities that are

being encouraged in the East Asia region, espe-

cially across low- and middle-income coun-

tries acing similar problems. The World Bank

is very happy and privileged to acilitate these

exchanges.

OPENING AND WELCOME REMARKS

Stean G. Koeberle,Country Director orIndonesia, WorldBank

PhotobyRinsanTobing


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8

Flood risk in the Asia Region, especially in the

South East Asia, is signifcant. The region is highly

prone to various typhoons and storms. Urban

flooding has in recent years become acute due

to extreme weather events. Flooding hinders

growth in individual countries, the region, and

the world.

In this context, this workshop is a very important

event as the experience o participants will pro-

vide good guidance or flood risk management

and disaster resilience in South East Asia.

In 2010, the Republic o Korea hosted the 4th

Asian Ministerial Conerence on Disaster Risk

Reduction (AMCDRR) in Incheon, with the sup-

port o GFDRR. NEMA and the World Bank have

signed a MoU on the implementation o the

Incheon Agreement and Action Plan, which was

adopted by all Asian ministers during this minis-

terial conerence.

This workshop is part o a comprehensive pro-

gram that supports three subregional projects in

Asia ocused on flood risk management. These

projects are being implemented in 15 countries

and regions and include the Glacier Lake Outburst

Flood (GLOF) project in the Himalayan region,

typhoons in the Pacifc region, and the East Asia

Program on Flooding. This unique regional-level

program supports knowledge sharing, technol-

ogy transer, capacity development, and learning

on flood risk management and disaster resil-

ience. This unique program or the Republic o

Korea and GFDRR has been expanded to other

parts o the region.

Bang Ki-Sung,Deputy Administrator,National EmergencyManagement Agency(NEMA), Republic oKorea

OPENING AND WELCOME REMARKS

PhotobyRinsanTobing


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The publication o Cities and Flooding: a Guide

o Urban Flood Risk Management or the 21st

Century, which provides guidance on the prob-

lem o flooding in the urban environment, is long

overdue.

One o the greatest challenges aced in Jakarta

today is climate change.

When Jakarta suered massive floods in 2007,

it paralyzed the city or fve days and orced

more than 400,000 people to leave their homes,

resulting in an estimated loss o US$635 mil-

lion; the people who suered the most were the

urban poor. At the time, the city administration

o Jakarta was still struggling with land acquisi-

tion to complete the construction o the Eastern

Flood Canal. The construction o this canal in the

East o Jakarta was not only ocused on build-

ing inrastructure, but also about reviving river-

ine communities which had been devastated by

annual floods. The completion o the East Flood

Canal in 2010 has successully reduced flooding

by 30 percent in Jakarta and improved the lives

o 2.5 million people.

Flood risk management implemented by cities

and local government is crucial. Cities and local

governments have the opportunity to design

solutions that are adaptable to the needs o their

local communities and are consistent with local

policies and priorities. There is increasing rec-

ognition that cities and urban regions are key

engines in the economic growth o countries and

regions, and that flood reduction plays an inte-

gral part in this.

Jakarta has been orced to be innovative in com-

ing up with solutions. For example, to be sae

rom the threat o climate change and flood-

ing, Jakarta must fnd an area o 50 sqkm to

accommodate excess water that causes floods.

At the same time Jakarta is experiencing sub-

stantial land subsidence due to the extraction o

ground water. Parts o Jakarta have subsided 2

meters, and there is no urther room or the city

to expand. Jakarta is thereore planning to con-

struct a giant sea wall in the bay o Jakarta.

An integrated approach is being taken with

regard to climate change and the environment;

this approach takes into account human and

welare dimensions. Eradicating poverty and

addressing welare issues must go hand in hand

with managing floods.

Jakartas experience shows that the success

o flood risk management lies in community

involvement. Policy makers and urban develop-

ment experts must listen to the communities and

empower them so that they can be part o the

solution.

Fauzi Bowo,Governor o DKIJakarta

PhotobyRinsanTobing


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PRESENTATION SUMMARIES

10


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1

Session I: Overview o Cities andFlooding: A Guide to IntegratedUrban Flood Risk Managementor the 21st Century

Abhas K. Jha, Lead Urban Specialist and

Program Leader, Disaster Risk Management or

the World Bank East Asia and Pacifc Region

Flooding is the most common o all natural disasters.

Flooding is an Asian phenomenon, as 90 percent

o people aected by floods live in Asia. Rapid and

unplanned urbanization in the region is a signifcantcontributing actor to flood disaster, as it puts more

people and assets in harms way. With the currently

staggering growth o urban areas in many countries,

urban flooding is going to be a growing challenge

or development and poverty reduction in the com-

ing decades.

The Cities and Flooding guidebook proposes an inte-grated approach to urban flood risk management.

The guidebook targets practitioners and people

on the ground dealing with issues related to urban

flooding. It oers operational guidance and includes

over 50 case studies, how-to sections, and 12 guid-

ing principles that illustrate the state-o-the-art on

integrated urban flood risk management.

Among the 12 principles, listed in Box 1, there areimportant points to highlight. Principle 6 statesthat it is impossible to entirely eliminate the risk

o flooding. This is particularly important as it sig-nals a shit away rom the myth that we can buildour way to saety. Preparedness or an unexpectedhazard level is always necessary. Inrastructure andsystems should be designed in such a manner as toallow them to ail graceully should an unexpectedhazard occur. Principle 11 states that continu-ous communication to raise awareness and rein-orce preparedness is necessary. Peoples memoryo disasters is short, so communication tools areneeded to keep these memories alive and ensurethat people behave in an appropriate manner. Risk

inormation, in the orm o flood hazard maps andflood orecasting, is also a very worthy investmentto increase disaster preparedness.

Decision making should be based on robustness,and a proper balance should be achieved betweenstructural and non-structural measures. Exampleso non-structural measures include the Whenflooded turn around dont drown campaign inthe United States, the German Flood Control Act2005, the LiFE project and the Pacifc CatastropheRisk Assessment and Financing Initiative. An example

o mixed measures is the Integrated Flood Risk Man-agement initiative in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

The way orward and challenges on the implementa-

tion o an integrated flood risk management relies on

the identifcation o appropriate instruments, invest-

ments, and incentives.

Cities and Flooding

A Guide to Integrated UrbanFlood Risk Management for

the 21st Century

A Summary for Policy Makers

Abhas K Jha | Robin BlochJessica Lamond

THE WORLD BANK

:

Figure 1 Cities and Flooding


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Session II: Show cases romCountries/Cities

Panel Session 1: Understanding FloodHazard and Its Impact

Moderator: Victor Rembeth

Speakers:

Dr. Royol Chitradon, Hydro and Agro

Inormatics Institute (HAII), Thailand

Khamhou Phanthavong, Ministry o Agriculture

and Forestry, Lao PDR

Catalina E, Cabral Ph.D., Department o Public

Works and Highways, the Philippines

Yumei Deng, Ministry o Water Resources, P.R.

China

Dr. Ole Nielsen, Australia-Indonesia Facility or

Disaster Reduction, Jakarta.

Key Points

Rapid urbanization is the root o many actors

contributing to urban flood risk.

Multi-hazard and bottom-up participatory

approaches are crucial or the implementation

o efcient and eective measures. Communi-

ties need to be empowered to actively contribute

to the design and implementation o flood man-

agement measures.

A social perspective should be integrated into

flood risk management measures. Law enorce-

ment alone may not be eective in changing

human behavior.

Proper tools and appropriate technologies are

crucial in understanding flood hazards and their

impacts.

Inormation on flood risk and potential impacts

must be made openly available or decision mak-

ing purposes, preerably using open-source data

and applications to improve sustainability.

BOX 1. Guiding Principles or anIntegrated Urban Risk Management

1. Every flood risk scenario is dierent: thereis no flood management blueprint.

2. Designs or flood management must beable to cope with a changing and uncer-tain uture.

3. Rapid urbanization requires the integra-tion o flood risk management into regu-lar urban planning and governance.

4. An integrated strategy requires the use oboth structural and non-structural mea-sures and good metrics or getting thebalance right.

5. Heavily engineered structural measurescan transer risk upstream and down-

stream. It is impossible to entirely elimi-nate the risk rom flooding.

6. Many flood management measures havemultiple co-benefts over and above theirflood management role.

7. It is important to consider the wider socialand ecological consequences o floodmanagement spending.

8. Clarity o responsibility or constructingand running flood risk programs is critical.

9. Implementing flood risk managementmeasures requires multi-stakeholdercooperation.

10. Continuous communication to raiseawareness and reinorce preparedness isnecessary.

11. Plan to recover quickly ater flooding anduse the recovery to build capacity.

Source: Cities and Flooding: A Guide to Integrated Urban

Flood Risk Management or the 21st Century.


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1

Climate Change Technology Needs and

Community Water Management in

Northeastern Thailand

Dr. Royol Chitradon, Hydro and AgroInormatics Institute (HAII), Ministry o Science

and Technology, Thailand

Thailand has experienced an increasing trend o rain-

all intensity and variability that causes some areas to

suer both droughts and floods, sometimes in the

same year (see Figure 2). Extreme events, such as

the ENSO cycle, have occurred more requently. This

signifcantly aects the agricultural sector in Thai-

land. Only 17 percent o Thailands agricultural land

is irrigated, while the rest is rain-ed. It is thereore

important or Thailand to properly manage its water

resources.

Thailand needs to simultaneously manage both

droughts and floods in order to avoid redundant

investments and ensure water security or all user

groups, both at the macro-level or irrigated agri-

cultural areas, industrial sector and urban/municipal

areas, and at the micro level or rain-ed agricul-

tural areas. Thailand has worked with other coun-

tries, including China and multilateral organizations,

to reach a better understanding o water cycles and

improve seasonal projections. To address challenges

in inrastructure development, orest conservation

and management o catchment areas, Thailand is

currently adopting a bottom-up approach at the

micro level by identiying best practices and strength-

ening them with the help o low-cost open source

GIS mapping and micro irrigation systems.

The bottom-up community-level approach adopted

in water management in northeastern Thailand can

Figure 2 Thailand - Flood Risk and Drought Risk Areas

Source: PowerPoint presentation, Dr. Royol Chitradon, Department o Disaster Prevention and Mitigation.

Low flooding risk area

Medium flooding risk area

High flooding risk area

Dam and Reservior

Main river

Regional boundary

Low drought risk area

Medium drought risk area

High drought risk area

No risk area

Dam and Reservior

Main river

Regional boundary

Flood risk area Drought risk area


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be considered as best practice. Northeastern Thailand

covers an area o 166,370 sqkm and is crossed by the

Kong, Chi and Moon rivers; the region experiences

floods and droughts as a result o increasing rainall

and seasonal variability. The construction o large res-

ervoirs is not easible or topographical reasons. Sim-

ple community-based traditional micro inrastructure

was considered the most cost-eective solution.

In the Ban Limthong Community Water Management

in Burirum province, measures such as dredging, ren-

ovating waterways, building network o people and

utilizing technology to plan production processes,

have successully tripled the income o villages and

reduced the requency o floods and droughts. This

community water management practice has been

replicated in other areas. Through networking and

cooperation, the number o villages (rais) applying

community water resource management is expected

to increase rom 3,000-4,000 rais to about 60,000

rais over a period o 5 to 6 years.

The above concept orms part o the Monkey Cheek

initiative launched by the King o Thailand; this ini-

tiative promotes a multi-hazard community-level

approach in local water retention systems.

Status o Lao PDRs Flood Risk

Management and Case Studies

Khamhou Phanthavong, Ministry o Agriculture

and Forestry, Lao PDR

Lao PDR regularly experiences floods and droughts.

River basin floods in areas located along the Mekong

River and its tributaries, as well as flash floods in

mountainous regions, are common. It is estimated

that the south and central regions, where about two

thirds o the countrys population live, experience an

average o 1.5 serious floods or droughts every year.

As a developing country with a per capita income oUS$753, Lao PDR struggles to provide the human-

itarian response and recovery eorts required or

most sectors to reach the pre-disaster level. Given

the signifcant changes in the regional mean temper-

ature and rainall, Lao PDR will ace even bigger chal-

lenges in natural resource management, especially in

water and orest resources that are major drivers o

its economy.

Disaster risk management (DRM) has been integrated

into Lao PDRs development plans, namely the Lao

National Growth and Poverty Eradication Strategy

(NGPES-2004) and the Lao PDRs Sixth National Socio-

Economic Development Plan (2006-2010). DRM will

also be integrated into the Seventh National Socio-

Economic Development Plan and the Country Part-

nership Strategy which is currently being prepared.

The latter document will include environment, cli-

mate change and disaster management as its priority.

Institutional structures have also been put in place.

The National Disaster Management Committee

(NDMC), an inter-ministerial committee was estab-

lished in 1999 to develop policies and coordinate

disaster risk reduction activities throughout the coun-

try. A National Disaster Management Ofce (NDMO),

under the Ministry o Labor and Social Welare, was

established in 2000 to serve as the secretariat o

NDMC.

Lao PDR is committed to implementing its disaster

risk reduction eorts. It acknowledges the support o

its development DRM partners, and will continue to

urther develop and scale up its disaster preparedness

programs to strengthen national and local capacity to

manage and cope with uture natural disasters.

Structural Measures or Flood Managementin the Philippines

Catalina E. Cabral Ph.D., Department o Public

Works and Highways, the Philippines

The Philippines is ranked third among the highest

risk countries in Asia or floods. Despite the gov-

ernments commitment to flood risk management,

challenges still exist in the areas o inrastructure con-

struction and maintenance, watershed/river basin

management, land use planning, strengthening o

institutional and local capacities or flood mitiga-tion, orecasting technology, governance and law

enorcement, mapping or decision making support

purposes, public and private sector awareness, and

understanding the impacts o climate change.

National flood risk management strategies have been

integrated into the Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction

and Management Act o 2010, Climate Change Act


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1

o 2009 and the Philippine Development Plan 2011-

2016. A National Disaster Risk Reduction and Man-

agement Council was created as an eort to move

away rom a top-down approach towards a bottom-

up participatory approach or disaster risk reduction,

ollowing the shit rom disaster response to a more

integrated approach o social and human devel-

opment, and a stronger ocus on the vulnerability

aspect o disasters. The Climate Change Commis-

sion is working closely with the National Disaster Risk

Reduction and Management Council, both o which

are chaired by the President, in the areas o gover-

nance, capacity development, knowledge manage-

ment, and risk and vulnerability reduction. There is

also a stronger push towards empowering local gov-

ernments and civil societies in DRM.

A case study ocusing on the 1991 flash floods in the

city o Ormoc, Leyte underlines the ollowing impor-

tant lessons: (i) Construction o comprehensive inra-

structure can eectively mitigate flood disaster and

protect communities, but may not always be easible

due to the high cost o the investment; (ii) Aid rom

international organizations is critical, particularly or

technology transer; and (iii) Dense population set-

tings in high-risk areas contribute to high casualties.

A social development approach, with strong political

will and support rom local government, is required

to address this issue.

Figure 3 Case Study Structural Countermeasures

Source: PowerPoint presentation, Catalina Cabral, Department o Public Works and Highways.

Mlb sl Dm

Blby sl Dm

al sl Dm

Structural Countermeasures


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16

Status o Chinas Flood Risk Managementand Case Studies

Yumei Deng, the Ofce o State Flood Control

and Drought Relie Headquarters, P.R. China

China experiences requent flood disasters due to its

topography, climate, and distribution o assets and

population. Since 1949, an average o 3,700 peo-

ple died, and 2.5 million homes are damaged due

to floods. China experiences various types o floods,

including rainstorm floods, flash floods, typhoons,

storm tide floods and urban floods. The latter is a par-

ticularly pressing problem due to the rapid economic

development o cities and the massive urbanization

that has taken place over the past three decades. The

amount o loss due to urban floods has been consis-

tently increasing over the past ew years.

The Government o China has adopted a strategic

approach to flood control and disaster mitigation. Pol-

icies were developed in 2003 to simultaneously tackle

floods and droughts and move away rom flood con-

trol towards flood management. Among the struc-

tural measures taken are amendment o plans or

flood control and disaster mitigation, improvement

o engineering systems, expansion o flood ways to

increase flow and storage, construction o dikes, res-

ervoirs and flood diversion area. These measures are

complemented by non-structural measures, such asscientifc management systems, social security sys-

tems, technological supporting systems, as well as

regulation, policy and legal systems. Flood control

institutional structures at the state, provincial, city,

and county level have also been established. These

institutional structures report to the State Flood Con-

trol and Drought Relie Headquarters, which consists

o 21 central government sector representatives.

China has a set o flood management-related laws

and regulations. It has also initiated the development

o a National Inormation System or Flood Control andDrought Relie. Hydrological monitoring, flood orecast-

ing and warning system, flood dispatch, 3-D digital sys-

tem or flood management, flood loss assessment and

flood hazard maps, are among the eatures being devel-

oped or the inormation system. Other eorts include

the development o urban flood control schemes, land-

use planning and adjustments, management o flood

impact assessment, and the selection o 35 regions in

China or pilot practice on flood hazard mapping and

flood risk management practices. An exercise aimed at

identiying drivers o urban floods, challenges and the

set o actions or integrating flood risk management

has also been carried out.

Impact Assessment Tools

Dr. Ole Nielsen, Australia-Indonesia Facility or

Disaster Reduction, Jakarta

The Indonesia Scenario Assessment or Emergencies

(InaSAFE) system was developed through the collab-

oration o the Indonesian Agency or Disaster Man-

agement (BNPB), the World Bank GFDRR Labs/EAP

DRM teams and the Australia Indonesia Facility or

Disaster Reduction (AIFDR) o AusAID. InaSAFE is agraphical inormation system that overlays data on

hazard levels with data on people and assets to pro-

duce a reliable estimate o disaster impact. InaSAFE

was developed to obtain the best available science

and data to support disaster management decision

making. The system can generate realistic disaster

scenarios or use in contingency planning and pro-

vide evidence-based quantitative impact assessments.

InaSAFE requires input in the orm o hazard data (e.g.

earthquake ground shaking and inundation maps)

which are commonly available through science agen-cies, and people/asset exposure data (e.g. population

density, important buildings and inrastructure, etc.)

that can be taken rom the bureau o statistics, local

data, or public sources. Challenges related to these

data requirements include the availability o hazard

and exposure data, and standardization o ormats,

metadata and distribution methods. These challenges

can, to a certain extent, be solved by using open-

source data and application such as OpenStreetMap.

The use o ree, open-source data and application will

increase sustainability in the long run.

Summary o Discussions

The discussion ocused on the kinds o inorma-

tion required or decision makers to strike a balance

between structural and non-structural measures.

An evaluation o past experiences is required

to strike a balance between structural and


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1

non-structural measures. In the case o the

2011 floods in Thailand, it was difcult to assess

whether the main cause was structural or non-

structural. According to Dr. Chitradon, the frst

step is to have good mapping system and developa strategy to integrate hazard and social data.

Dr. Cabral stated that the Government o the Phil-

ippines needs an asset management system to

account or and monitor the flood control struc-

tures that have been built on its many rivers. The

system will make it possible or the government

to understand the amount o investment and

the requency and cost o damages and consider

alternative designs or approaches, as necessary.

A database o waterways is also important or

identiying the institutions responsible or eachwaterway and the tributaries. This should be a col-

laborative eort between national and local gov-

ernments. The national government also needs a

good database that should be shared with local

governments. Some local governments already

have this database but it needs to be updated.

Dr. Nielsen added that when dealing with disas-

ter managers, access to basic risk inormation is

important or determining non-structural mea-

sures and the overall risk management system.

According to Mr. Bhanja, there are matters to be

considered when determining structural and non-

structural measures. Structural measures require

big investments, while non-structural measures

must involve the community. In any disaster sce-

nario, the communitys capacity and involvement

in the decision-making process is important.

Community-level initiatives, particularly local

coping mechanisms, should be integrated into

local and national policies. Good community-led

initiatives have been seen, or example, during

Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar. Similarly, nationaland subnational initiatives must percolate to

community level.

Some o the causes o flood, such as climate vari-

ability and climate change, are dealt with in the

course o interventions and measures managed by

dierent agencies and jurisdictions. Mr. Gunawan

stressed the importance o linking the causes,

impacts, and intervention into a single platorm.

It is important to have a technology that allows

agencies who own relevant data to easily share it

with other agencies without the need to be too

proactive, as well as make data publicly available,without the public having to ask or it.

The American Red Cross (ARC), in collabora-

tion with the Indonesian Red Cross, is launch-

ing a flood mitigation program in the greater

Jakarta area. The program ocuses on non-struc-

tural measures and working with communities

along the Ciliwung river basin. One component

o the program is solid waste management. Mr.

Tom Alsea o ARC would like to hear any experi-

ences related to non-structural measures or solid

waste management.

According to Dr. Chitradon, prevention and mit-

igation is more conflict-prone than adaptation.

Adaptation is also better or promoting coordina-

tion. Dr. Chitradon shared the experience during

the floods in northeastern Thailand, and western

and eastern districts o Bangkok. In the western

district o Bangkok, the collaboration between

local administrations, international organiza-

tions, the army, and the private sector ocused

on measures that were geared less on prevention

and more on adaptation. Compared to the ullprevention eorts carried out in eastern districts

o Bangkok, previous eorts were more success-

ul in avoiding conflict.

Dr. Chitradon added that jurisdiction and law

enorcement were difcult to implement during

a natural disaster. It was thereore important to

build up and strengthen disaster management at

all levels o government, including at the local

level, ministry level, and central government

level.

Dr. Cabral gave an example o a law enorcement

problem in Metro Manila that deals with litter-

ing and indiscriminate dumping by people living

along the waterways, which contributes to flood-

ing. In one local government unit (LGU), there is

a law that bans the use o plastics. During the

flood, this LGU did not experience flooding. Ban-

ning plastics is not easy as plastic manuacturers


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18

will oppose the initiative. The cooperation o

local and national government, local NGOs and

the private sector is needed to help enorce solid

waste management, segregation o waste and

reduction o indiscriminate dumping. A database

on important buildings and actories impacted by

flooding will help acilitate such cooperation.

Dr. Nielsen, based on his discussions with the

Indonesian National Agency or Disaster Man-

agement (BNPB), added that the determination

o a threshold is necessary in order to identiy

which public buildings or institutions, such as

hospitals and schools, will be closed or impacted

under certain scenarios.

Mr. Santiago suggested that levels o risk percep-

tion, specifcally the risk acceptance or aversion

o the aected communities, as well as the public

in general, should be taken into account as this

aects the perception o success in implement-

ing structural or non-structural measures. Mr.

Santiago proposed the possible launch o a pub-

lic inormation and awareness raising campaign

ocusing on the aected communities, particu-

larly the poor and vulnerable, in order to inorm

and change their risk perception.

Panel Session 2: The Components oIntegrated Flood Risk Management

Moderator: Victor Rembeth

Speakers:

Dr. Ho Long Phi, Steering Center o Flood Control

Program Director, Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam

Dr. Cheong Tae Sung, National Disaster

Management Institute (NDMI), Ministry o

Public Administration and Security (MoPAS),Rep. o Korea

Dudi Gardesi, Department o Public Works, DKI

Jakarta

Takaya Tanaka, Japan International

Cooperation Agency (JICA)

Jenny Enrika and Agus Nuryadi, Pembangunan

Jaya Group.

Key points

A combination o structural and non-structuralmeasures is required to ensure the highest level

o protection against flood risk.

Measures need to be flexible and robust in order

to adapt to uncertainties.

Uncertainties, presented in the orm o multiple

scenarios and probability percentages, should be

clearly communicated to disaster managers to

ensure inormed decision making.

Multi-stakeholder coordination will be moreeective when guided by specifc shared goals

and objectives, and supported through standard-

ized data and systems, a clear division o roles

and responsibility and good leadership.

Flood risk management should be mainstreamed

into sustainable development policies and prac-

tices.

The private sector and developers should be

included in the dialogue on flood risk management.

Multi-level and multi-sector coordination amonggovernment agencies promotes an integrated

approach to flood risk management. To promote

coordination, a basin-oriented or community-ori-

ented approach can be used.

Policy makers play an important role in deter-

mining flood risk management investment.

Practitioners should provide policy makers with

decision-support tools and supply sufcient

incentive to promote commitment on longer-

term flood prevention, mitigation, and prepared-

ness measures.

Technological innovations, such as those devel-

oped in the Republic o Korea and Japan, can

greatly enhance flood prevention and mitigation

eorts.


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Evaluating Alternative Flood RiskManagement Options

Dr. Ho Long Phi, Steering Center o Flood

Control Program Director, Ho Chi Minh City,

Vietnam

Ho Chi Minh City lies in a lowland area and aces

increasing risk rom upstream floods, increasing rain-

all, increasing tidal eect, sea- and water-level rise,

and land subsidence. Urbanization urther aggra-

vates inappropriate land use, which in turn heightens

flood risk. The risk uncertainties make it difcult to

determine appropriate structural measures.

The city has an integrated urban flood management

strategy designed to deal with uncertainties. The

strategy has three components: protection, adapta-

tion, and resilience. The main component is protec-

tion, which ocuses on technical, structural measures,

such as construction o dikes, sewers, and water

retention inrastructure, in order to ensure peoples

saety at 80-95 percent protection levels. The protec-

tion level o these structures decreases with time due

to the uncertainty o uture risks. Adaptation aims to

maintain the current protection level over time, while

resilience, which addresses risk rather than hazard,

aims to increase the protection level to 100 percent

and reduce the damage under extremity. Adaptationand resilience are mostly non-structural measures,

implemented through a multi-stakeholder approach.

The three components o this strategy have to be

supplemented with a decision-support system.

The integrated flood management strategy does

not entirely rely on a predict and act approach,

which is conventionally used or the design o struc-

tural protection measure. Greater attention is given

to adaptation and resilience measures as they are

more appropriate or dealing with uncertainties and

extremities o uture risks. When designing struc-

tural measures, it is important not to encourage

over-confdence as this reduces adaptability and

preparedness. The potential risks, which are oten

perceived as small in terms o probability, can be

very dangerous i not considered in the design o

structural measures.

Figure 4 Ho Chi Minh City Strategy Analysis

Source: PowerPoint presentation, Dr. Ho Long Phi.


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20

An iterative decision-making (IDM) process is used

to decide on the selection o the protection strategy,

which can be a combination o measures. The process

involves identifcation o candidate protection strate-

gies (see Figure 4), development o multiple scenarios

or each strategy to analyze vulnerability and calcu-

late potential damages, and analysis o candidate

protection strategies based on protection, adaptation

and resilience criteria as well as social and economic

risk analysis. Social and economic risk analysis is car-

ried out through an overlay o vulnerability maps,

hazard maps and exposure maps to identiy the vul-

nerability and indirect cost index. The fnal strategy is

then selected based on robustness rather than opti-

mality, criterion or probability.

In conclusion: (i) the eventual purpose o flood man-

agement is to reduce risk not hazard; (ii) integrated

strategy should consider uncertainty and extremity;

(iii) economic-avored and social-avored strategies

should be justifed by a multi-stakeholder process;

and (iv) to deal with complexity, choice should come

beore prediction.

Flood Risk Management Policies andSystems or CCA and DRR

Tae Sung Cheong Ph.D., Climate Change

Research, National Disaster ManagementInstitute (NDMI), Ministry o Public

Administration and Security (MoPAS), Republic

o Korea

The Republic o Korea has recently developed its

2050 climate change projection which indicates a

signifcant potential increase in disaster risk and vul-

nerability due to rising temperatures, increasing pre-

cipitation, seasonal changes and sea-level rise. There

will be higher probability or extreme weather events,

such as heat waves and downpours, which may

cause droughts and floods, as well as increase therisk o more requent, large-scale natural disasters.

Over the years, there have been ewer atalities ol-

lowing natural disasters in the Republic o Korea, but

higher amounts o fnancial losses due to changes in

the social structure. Most damage has been caused

by floods and landslides in river basins and urban

areas ollowing torrential rain, drought caused by

water shortage due to a decreasing number o rainy

days and increasing water needs, coastal floods due

to sea-level rise and erosion o sandy beaches.

In 2011, the Prime Ministers ofce was tasked with

setting up a task orce consisting o relevant minis-tries, local governments, and experts to address the

issue o climate change and improve existing institu-

tions such as resetting disaster prevention standards.

A number o policies to be developed will include a

new guideline or disaster risk reduction (DRR) and

climate change adaptation (CCA), a new design code

or public acility and social inrastructures, enhance-

ment o guidelines on sewer systems, and strength-

ening erosion control to reduce debris. The Republic

o Korea is also developing its flood risk manage-

ment system, such as an Automated Rainall Warn-ing System (ARWS) and a warning and dissemination

system, which will allow wire/wireless warning dis-

semination by the Disaster Inormation Management

Center. A flash flood orecasting system, landslide

orecasting and monitoring system and a typhoon

disaster management system are also being devel-

oped. These policies and systems will identiy local-

ized risk and estimate GIS-based damage inormation

or the purpose o decision making on DRR and CCA.

Mr. Jha commented that laws should ensure the

availability o permeable spaces. In the case o cit-ies in India, green spaces are oten built on top o

concrete. It is thereore important to ocus on per-

meable ground, not just greening. Rain water har-

vesting is seen as a good solution or ground water

discharge. In the city o Delhi, or instance, all

houses are required to have rain water harvesting,

yet enorcement o this regulation is still weak. In

other Indian cities, e.g. Chennai, this eort has been

more successul. In Toronto, 60 percent o commer-

cial building areas are required to be green, which is

something that the Republic o Korea is also trying to

enorce. This eort is easier to implement in new cit-ies, while in older cities such as Seoul, many houses

and actories were built in high-risk areas during the

countrys rapid development in the 1960s. Accord-

ing to Mr. Cheong, the government is trying to con-

vert existing areas into green areas, improve sewer

systems, and develop underground storage acilities

similar to those built in Japan.


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2

Flood management in Jakarta: Case romJakarta Urgent Flood Mitigation Program(JUFMP)

Dudi Gardesi, Ministry o Public Works, DKI Jakarta

Jakarta, the capital city o Indonesia, is a low-lying

delta area traversed by 13 rivers. Forty percent o

Jakarta is aected by high tide. The city generally

experiences medium-to-heavy intensity rainall in the

rainy season. With massive urban development tak-

ing place, Jakarta aces signifcant flood risk. Land

subsidence, clogged river and sewerage, slum orma-

tion in high risk areas, and sea-level rise are just a ew

o the actors that are contributing to the flood risk.

Jakarta has initiated a number o structural and non-

structural flood control measures. The measures

include the creation o new water catchment areas,

sea walls (see Figure 5) and a polder system; some

o these measures are collaborations between the

Ministry and the provincial government through the

support o development partners. An example is the

construction o eight sea walls built by the provin-

cial government on a piece o land that was acquired

by the provincial government. The compensation or

land varies depending on land ownership. When the

land is owned by the State, compensation is given

only or the relocation o inhabitants, whereas when

the land is privately-owned, compensation is based

on the price o the land and the price it would cost to

build on the land.

Figure 5 Jakarta Sea Wall Rehabilitation Plan

Source: PowerPoint presentation, Dudi Gardesi.


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22

Comprehensive Flood Management in anUrban River A Successul Experience inJapan

Takaya Tanaka, Japan International


The Tsurumi river basin is aected by the East Asian mon-

soon and has experienced rapid urbanization between

the 1960s and the 1980s. Peak run-o discharge has

more than doubled within that same period, resulting

in requent floods a similar challenge to the one aced

in the Ciliwung river basin in Jakarta. Urbanization and

settlement in Tsurumi is predicted to increase by 14 per-

cent between 2008 and 2030, along with a 50 percent

increase o run-o discharge.

One contributing actor to urban flooding is the lack o

space or water, particularly in densely populated areas.

A comprehensive flood management system which

essentially aims to increase space or water has been

put in place in the Tsurumi river basin (see Figure 6).

The system consists o three types o measures covering

the river basin, the river itsel and drainage systems. The

three measures incorporate a range o structural mea-

sures, such as landfll control, preservation o green area,

river improvement, permeable pavement, multipurpose

retarding basin, reservoir, park storage, undergroundreservoir, and construction o gates and pumps.

As part o the river basin measures, the government

works with the private sector to build flood control res-

ervoirs. All private developers are required by national

law to construct a 500-cubic meter pond per hectare

o land. The government also uses new technology

or ground material that allows water storage under-

ground. The river measure includes the construction o

the 84-hectare Tsurumi multi-purpose retarding basin

that accommodates 3.9 million cubic meter o water.

The drainage measure includes the construction opumping stations and drainage rainwater storage pipes.

As a result o this comprehensive set o flood preven-

tion measures, the number o houses inundated during

floods has consistently decreased over the years, rom

more than 7,500 in 1966 to close to none in 2004.

Figure 6 Japan Comprehensive Flood Management Reserve Water in the City

Source: PowerPoint presentation, Takaya Tanaka.


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2

Flood Risk Management at PT.Pembangunan Jaya Ancol, Tbk.

Jenny Enrika, Pembangunan Jaya Group

Agus Nuryadi, Pembangunan Jaya Group

PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol, Tbk, is a private com-

pany that operates a 552-hectare seaside property and

recreation/resort area in Ancol, north Jakarta. PT Pem-

bangunan Jaya Ancol adopts a strategic management

ramework that places no burden on the citys systems.

It discharges no water into the city drainage system

and produces its own drinking water rom sea water

through a reverse osmosis system and without extract-

ing any water rom the land. It constructed its own

sea walls, dikes, canals, polders and a pumping system

using hydro meteorological data rom the Indonesian

Meteorology and Geophysics Body (BMG).

PT Pembangunan Jaya collaborates with the Jakarta

city government in the maintenance o water gates

and pumps systems in the Ancol area to support the

citys drainage. It also allocates a portion o its land

or the citys waste disposal. Seventy percent o its

land is designated as a green area, with paving blocks

used throughout to increase water absorption.


The discussion ocused on the challenges in integrat-ing flood risk management.

Resettlement o populations at risk is a challenge.

Dr. Santiago explained that in Metro Manila, 75,000

amilies, who are either aected by floods or are

implicated in causing them, are to be relocated. A

und o 15 million pesos has been already allocated

or this purpose. The options or resettlement are on-

site resettlement, in-city resettlement or resettlement

along the limits or outside o Metro Manila. Each

option has its own risks and benefts. A rule now

requires the preparation o hazard maps or resettle-ment to areas outside o Metro Manila, as spaces out-

side o Metro Manila may not be necessarily better

or resettlement purposes, although costs are lower.

Another option would be constructing medium-rise

buildings or resettlement within Metro Manila. This

option is more costly and the area is still exposed to

existing hazards. Local governments in Metro Manila

are coming up with programs to generate unds at the

city level to relocate populations to the city boundary

areas, or in areas in adjoining provinces. There are

still issues with communications, as in some areas,

communities are reluctant to relocate. Recent talks

with inormal sector groups have shown that com-

munities are taking a more positive stance and that

attitudes on relocation-related issues have improved.

The challenge is to cover the relatively high cost o

resettlement in Metro Manila. Another challenge is

to fnd sufcient space to devote to these initiatives.

An AusAID-supported project is currently addressing

this issue. The project employs a multi-tier approach

to developing relocation units, which are not uni-

orm. Several models are available, depending on the

willingness o those being relocated to pay and the

size o their respective amilies. The national housing

agency and several city governments have expressedan interest in replicating this initiative.

According to Mr. Tanaka, another challenge is the

wall between agencies, e.g. between sectoral agen-

cies and the planning agency, which exists in Japan as

well as Indonesia. Mr. Cheong agreed that this issue

needed to be resolved. A consensus has to be reached

between the national government, local governments,

and the private sector. Focusing on basin-oriented and

community-oriented measures may help to promote

such a consensus. Hardware/structural measures are

easier to agree on as they rely mainly on budget, sothe ocus can be placed on consolidating sotware/

non-structural measures, such as capacity-building,

early warning and decision-making systems. Inorma-

tion and knowledge sharing should take place within a

common DRM objective. Mr. Tanaka agreed that there

should a common goal between the various agencies;

this common goal should be a concrete numerical goal

and not merely a conceptual goal.

Mr. Jha added that developers are oten neglected in

the dialogue between stakeholders, and this should

be corrected as they are a key partner in this process.A high degree o inormality exists in this sector. In

Istanbul, or instance, 50 percent o housing is inor-

mal. An inormal developer community exists, so it is

important to get them involved in flood risk manage-

ment. Mr. Jha also included political aspects as part

o the uncertainty in flood risk management. Policy

makers are mostly concerned with current pressing

issues, and not with uture potential impacts. This


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24

is particularly true in developing countries, such as

Indonesia, India, and Brazil, where policy makers ace

a trade-o between providing or current needs,

such as sanitation and drinking water and preparing

or uture risk that may or may not happen. Practi-

tioners should thereore provide policy makers with

tools to link these trade-os, but in the fnal account,

decisions are taken on political grounds and not on

technical grounds.

Dr. Nielsen added that when developing models and

maps, there needs to be clear understanding that

they represent a probability, and not a certainty. Dr.

Nielsen is considering assigning a rating to the input

data, or instance by giving stars. The more stars,

the higher the certainty and the level o trust put on

the data or decision making purposes. The level o

uncertainty has to be clearly communicated beore

any decision is made.

Ms. Enrika said that PT. Pembangunan Jayas strategy

has had little impact on Jakartas flood risk manage-

ment as a whole. Jakartas problem is that it is lacks

a green area. She proposed that countries jointly

decide on a common policy, or example on a green

area requirement or all cities.

Session III: The International

Development Partner View Pannel Session

Speakers:


Research, National Disaster Management

Institute (NDMI), Ministry o Public

Administration and Security (MoPAS), Rep. o

Korea

Dr. Hitoshi Baba, Japan International


Yannick Douet, Altamira Inormation.

Key Points

Decisions must be made based on good quality

inormation. It is thereore useul to have GIS-

based decision-support systems based on mul-

tiple scenarios.

Flood management strategy should be contextual

and should consider the local natural and social

context and continually adapt to the changing

local context through the process o continuous

learning (the Kaizen principle).

Accurate calculation o risk and accurate com-

munication o risk to all stakeholders is critical or

prevention, mitigation, and preparedness.

A sae-side early warning, redundant designs,

multi-player and multi-disciplinary approach are

important to address uncertainty.

A shit rom a deterministic approach towards a

probabilistic approach is crucial to ensure robustness.

Satellite data and technology is now available to

support more accurate prediction o hazard and

risk analysis.

Korean Technology on Flood ForecastingModel and Faster Decision-making Process


Research, National Disaster Management

Institute (NDMI), Ministry o Public

Administration and Security (MoPAS), Republic

o Korea

The decision-support system or DRM in the Republic

o Korea consists o three components: (i) an inor-

mation-based DRM system; (ii) a model-based DRM

system; and (iii) a decision-support system.

For the collection and sharing o inormation or the

inormation-based DRM system, a standard ormat

needs to be introduced, such as GIS-based inor-

mation. Data is collected rom related agencies and

merged to perorm analysis or decision making.

The modeling-based DRM system is basically a numeri-

cal model. The modeling based system can be easily

calibrated according to the input data and validated in

dierent locations. In the case o the Bo Chung Chun

basin, the rainall-runo modeling is used to compare

discharge at dierent bridges in the basin area.

The decision-support system produces animations o

simulation results, which can provide an automatic


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2

estimation o damage, both in terms o casualties

and damage to properties (see Figure 7). The system

can be used or early warning, emergency response,

and early recovery.

There are two dierent scales or mapping in the

Republic o Korea: a national decision-support sys-

tem or general use, and more detailed systems at the

subnational level. Both maps are initially established

by the national government. Technology is trans-

erred to the local government level through training,

education, and inormation sharing.

Figure 7 Decision-Support System in the Republic o Korea

Source: PowerPoint presentation, Tae Sung Cheong.

Lessons Learned rom GEJE 2011

Dr. Hitoshi Baba, Japan InternationalCooperation Agency (JICA)

The lessons learned rom disaster experiences need

to be identifed in order to contribute to the fve

actions o the Hyogo Framework o Action. JICA has

launched a study on the eective countermeasures

against mega-disasters to obtain lessons rom vari-

ous catastrophic events, particularly the Great East

Japan Earthquake (GEJE) o 2011, and to extract new

and additional perspectives or eective DRM that is

equally applicable to the international community.

Box 2 provides a list o these lessons.

A number o lessons learned in the GEJE 2011 were

underlined. Points b2 and h1 relate to the need to

apply progressive adaptation against changing condi-

tions (the Kaizen principle). Changes related to ele-

ments such as local natural and social conditions,

as well as population, generation, liestyles, risk


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26

a1: Probabilistic risk analysis with scientifcknowledge

b1: Continuous revision and upgrading o disaster

management standard

b2: Risk analysis under changing local natural and

social condition

c1: Comprehensive geological, archaeological,

and historical research

c2: Sae-side early warning o the largest possible

hazard

c3: Realistic explanation o warning and disaster

inormation

c4: Redundant inormation delivery incooperation with various practitioners

d1: Multiple structural measures supported by

subunctional structures

d2: Redundant combination o structural and

non-structural measures to minimize hazard

d3: Risk communication to raise awareness o

disaster management measures, limitations,

and probable risks

e1: Construction o evacuation sites and escape

routes integrated with city planning

e2: Multi-combination o evacuation routes andacilities

e3: Land use planning with the lowest risks as

residential areas incorporated with building

regulations

e4: Evacuation system developed with disaster

preparedness including management o

buildings and acilities

1: Sel Rescue First principle

2: Disaster education, including capacity

development o individuals

g1: Hazard map or understanding hazard

instance and or evacuation drills, but not as

deterministic hazard assumptions

g2: Continuous and regular risk communication

to raise awareness o the possibility o

hazards exceeding the hazard maps

h1: Adaptation to changing communitys

conditions, such as population, generation,

liestyles, risk awareness, and capacity o sel-

support activities

h2: Risk communication between aging

population and new generation

h3: Risk communication between mature

residents and newcomers

i1: Local disaster management plans continually

revised on the basis o multiple damage

scenarios

i2: Community disaster management capabilities

enhancement through probabilistic hazard

identifcation, disaster education, evacuation

drills, and construction o evacuation sites,

buildings and evacuation routes

j1: Joint eorts o multiple local governments

j2: Central level agency to carry out

reconstruction projects

k1: Handing down lessons learned on disaster

experiences and knowledge over generations

k2: Inducement o appropriate land use and

restrictions, regulations on building structures

in combination with city development plans

BOX 2 Lessons rom GEJE 2011

Source: PowerPoint presentation, Dr. Hitoshi Baba, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).

awareness and capacity or sel-support, must be con-

sidered in the assessment o risk and identifcation o

counter measures. Points c2, c3, d3, g1, g2 relate to

risk literacy. Sae-side early warning systems to warn

o the largest possible hazard was recommended, as

well as updated and more accurate communication o

risk and estimation o risk. For example, there should

be an appropriate level o understanding among all

those aected o what a hazard map really means.

Points c4, d1, d2, e1, e2, i2 highlight the need to

have redundant prevention/mitigation measures and

disaster management operations. Redundancy does

not mean costly overlapping measures. Based on the

study, redundant designs, multi-player, and a multi-

disciplinary approach works eectively in the context

o uncertain and extreme events. JICA uses the three


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2

principles o Kaizen, risk literacy and redundancy in

its approach towards securing fnance and main-

streaming disaster risk management.

A shit is needed rom a deterministic to a prob-

ability approach (see Figure 8). The deterministic

approach uses a target protection level or a planned

and designed hazard to determine protection and

mitigation measures. This can be dangerous in the

ace o uncertainty. The probability approach uses

multiple scenarios based on probabilistic hazard pro-

jection to determine the hazard level. Through the

probability approach, damages and losses based on

multiple scenarios can be minimized through a seam-

less combination o structural and non-structural

measures and redundant measures.

Figure 8 A Comparison o the Deterministic Approach and the Probabilistic Approach

Source: PowerPoint presentation, Dr. Hitoshi Baba, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).

Ground Displacement Monitoring UsingRadar Satellite Images

Yannick Douet, Altamira Inormation.

Altamira Inormation is an earth observation company

that provides ground deormation measurements

with millimeter precision and mapping solutions

using satellite images. Altamira uses Intereromet-

ric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) methodology

to measure vertical changes in land surace. Satellite

data are collected at intervals and analyzed to pro-

duce graphical inormation that can be used or a

range o purposes within various sectors, including

inrastructures, mining, oil, and gas. The methodol-

ogy oers high-quality measurement, large coverage,

retrospective analysis, and up-to-date inormation in

a cost efcient way.

This technology can provide site inormation and

eatures, as well as historical inormation on ground

deormation and subsidence, which is a key input or

identiying and predicting disaster risk and vulner-

ability. It has been used, or example, or analyzing

impact o earthquake on land subsidence in Yogya-

karta, the impact o urban development in Ho Chi

Minh City (see Figure 9), the impact o groundwater

extraction in Semarang, coastal zone vulnerability inAlexandria, Egypt, and or measuring settlement o

the southern dike port o Barcelona.

To measure difcult areas, such as buildings or

grounds covered with dense vegetation or snow, new

points o reerence and corner reflectors will need to

be added to the calculation.


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28


According to Mr. Santiago, the use o a probabi-

listic approach may pose additional challenge to

communicating risk and eliciting response rom

those aected, when compared to the determin-

istic approach. Dr. Baba explained that risks are

sometimes misunderstood and that, at times,

authorities do not properly explain the possibil-

ity o higher risk or extreme events that exceed

our assumptions or previous calculation o risk

depending on a single scenario. This is why mul-

tiple scenarios are necessary. For instance, when

producing a hazard map, the possibility o dier-

ent scenarios must be communicated, as well as

the act that these maps do not yet capture the

maximum probable risk.

Dr. Nielsen stated that disaster managers do not

need to know the maximum possible risk but

maximum credible risk. He inquired about best

ways to identiy plausible maximum risk levels.

Dr. Baba responded that the design o structural

measures should be based on maximum prob-

ability, and should take into account the esti-

mation on when the bigger hazard may occur.

This is the practice o most scenario strategy and

probabilistic approach o risk management.

When asked about the cost o the ground deor-

mation measurement technology, Mr. Douet

explained that the cost will depend on the degree

o complexity and the kind o the study to be

undertaken. Dr. Nielsen added that to improve

sustainability, donors should ensure that pur-

chased datasets or technology should be made

publicly available so that benefciary countries are

not burdened with subsequent licensing costs.

Dr. Baba recommended that countries should

enter into collaboration with research institutes

in Asia or in their respective countries to obtain

access to basic datasets at minimal cost.

As a result o climate change, it is no longer pos-

sible to use past trends to predict the uture, as

in the case o 50-year or 100-year predictions.

These kinds o prediction are not good or risk

communication, as it does not help people to

ully understand probability and risks. Mr. Jha

underlined the importance o shiting towards

a probabilistic approach and move away rom a

deterministic approach in which structural mea-

sures are designed to respond to a specifc haz-

ard level, which may or may not be correct.

Figure 9 Case study: Ho Chi Minh City - Urban Risk Management

Source: Yannick Douet, Altamira Inormation.

Binh Tanh District. Deormations up to 20mm/year

triggered by rapid urban development


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2

Special Session: Flood PreparednessMapping Presentation



32/48


30

Remarks by Franz R. Drees-Gross, SectorManager, World Bank, Jakarta

Practitioners o urban flood risk management

and urban resilience work at the intersection

o two megatrends in East Asia: a historically

unprecedented urbanization trend and challeng-

ing natural resource management issues. Urban-

ization has meant that larger numbers o people

are placed in harms way, and more assets are

at risk. This, combined with the natural phe-

nomena, such as the sinking o Jakarta and sev-

eral other cities in Asia, adds to the recurrence

o flooding events. This is a huge challenge or

urban resilience and flood risk management.

There were good discussions on using risk inor-

mation data and sotware and placing them in

the public domain or decision makers and plan-

ners, as well as extending the discussion beyond

flood risk management into the realm o urban

design and planning and inrastructure invest-

ments.

This workshop is not a one-o event. Through the

support o the Government o Korea and the gov-

ernment o DKI Jakarta, a community o practi-tioners rom dierent countries can be ormed to

share knowledge and experience. By continuing

this inormation sharing ater the workshop, the

flood risk management agenda can gain visibility

and buy-in rom political decision makers, not just

here in Jakarta but also in other Asian cities.

Remarks by Bang Ki-Sung, DeputyAdministrator, National EmergencyManagement Agency (NEMA), Republic.

O Korea

The Republic o Korea is acing changing disaster

risks due to climate change. Located in the East

Asia Pacifc region, 70 percent o the Republic o

Koreas surace is mountainous terrain. In sum-

mer, the country is oten hit by typhoons coming

rom the Pacifc region, causing signifcant dam-

ages due to winds and concentrated rainalls.



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As part o disaster risk reduction and prevention,

NEMA implemented hardware measures and sot-

ware measures. The hardware measures include,

the disaster prone area enhancement project, the

steep slope plane national project to reduce land-

slide and risk or flood disaster, and small stream

management projects. Relevant policies and disas-

ter risk management systems have been presented

by Dr. Tae Sung Cheong. Sotware measures

include the development o disaster risk manage-

ment regulations on: (i) an assessment o disas-

ter risk or every development plan in the Republic

o Korea; (ii) a comprehensive integrated flo

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Workshop Proceedings Jakarta Flood Risk Management 2012

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