Worl food day presentation 2012 november 13 food security in oman

Food Security in OmanPosition and Prospects

Hemesiri KotagamaDepartment of Natural Resource EconomicsCollege of Agricultural and Marine SciencesSultan Qaboos University

World Food Day 2012 SQU1

CONTENT

Global position on food markets and food security Oman’s position on food security: Economic Measures

– (Salwa Al Jabri & Kotagama, MSc) Oman’s prospects to achieve food security

– Staple: Wheat ( Houcine, Kotagama: SQU Study)

– Fish (Khamis Al Jabri & Kotagama, MSc)

– Role of Government (Press Release)

– Role of Individuals (Esma Al Balushi & Kotagama)


GLOBAL POSITION ON FOOD SECURITY: PAST AND PRESENT EXPECTATION

Definition of food security (UN/ FAO)Food security exists:

– when all people, – at all time, – have physical, social and economic access – to sufficient, safe and nutritious food – which meets their dietary needs and – food preferences – for an active and healthy life.


Glo

bal

Global food availability

Na

tio

na

l

National net food imports

National food production

National foodavailability

Household Incomes

Household food access

Food Security Care HealthOther basic needsand non necessities H

ou

seh

old

In

div

idu

al

Nutritional Security

FOUR LEVELS OF FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS


Social Aspects of Food SecurityEffect of Mothers Nutritional Knowledge and Attitudes on Omani Children’s Dietary IntakeAli Al-Shookri, Layla Al-Shukaily, Fouad Hassan, Sadeq Al-Sheraji, Saif Al-TobiOman Medical Journal (2011) Vol. 26, No. 4: 253-257

AbstractObjectives: The study investigates the dietary intakes of Omani preschoolers and associations with both socio-demographic characteristics and the mother’s nutritional knowledge and attitudes.

Methods: A sample of 154 parents of preschoolers completed a questionnaire including socio-demographic characteristics, a food-frequency questionnaire to assess children’s food intake, nutritional knowledge and attitudes towards healthy eating.

Results: The results showed a lower dietary adequacy of children’s food intake in mothers with low educational levels, high-ranked occupation, and lower levels of both nutritional knowledge and food related health attitudes. The highest food intake and healthy eating attitude scores were found in children of mothers with high education level and mother without a job. The association of the dietary adequacy with socio-demographic background can help the Omani healthcare decision makers to develop better-tailored nutrition interventions which are more suitable for the Omani community.

Conclusion: The results from this study of mothers’ nutritional knowledge and attitudes support the inclusion of knowledge and attitudes in dietary interventions.


One Aspect of Health, Food and Richness: Obesity


Other Aspect of Health, Food and Poverty: Malnourishment


GLOBAL POSITION ON FOOD SECURITY: PRESENT REALITY

Since 2007 – “silent tsunami of hunger

is sweeping the world.” Within 2 years

– Food prices rose by 83%.– Wheat and rice prices

have nearly tripled (300%). 1% increase in food price

reduces the calorie intake by 0.5% among the poor.

Rising food prices have pushed 100 m people below poverty line.


Factors contributing to change in food commodity prices


Demand based reasons.

Economic boom in developing countries (India and China)

37% of world population in India and China Increased income (more than 600 million new middle

class) Leading to increased demand for food and meat

– Corn and wheat diverted to feed from food– Food conversion ratio (700 cal of animal feed produces 100

cal in beef, 7:1)


GLOBAL POSITION ON FOOD SECURITY: Economic Reasons Cont.

• Fuel substitutes food• Threat of climate change and high petroleum prices induces agro-fuel (ethanol) production.

• President Bush signed the “Energy Independence and Security Act” on 19th December 2007, which mandates 36 billion gallons of bio fuel to be produced yearly by 2022.

• By 2020 US and EU demand for grain for ethanol production will be 400 m tons a year.

• China aims at producing 15 billion litres of bio fuel by 2020.

• By 2008 demand for grain for bio fuel is 114 m tons (28% of the projected harvest).

• US estimate is that the impact of bio fuel production as 3% increase in food prices but WB estimate is 75%.

• Corn requirement to fill a tank of a car with 18.5 gallon capacity could feed a human being for 270 days.



Market Speculation for Food– Investments in grain and livestock

futures has more than doubled to about $65 Billion from $ 25 Billion in November 2007.

– More than half the value of corn, soya and wheat of US (the largest exporter) has already been bought.



Supply Based Reasons

Rise in oil prices increasing the cost of production of food and transport.– Modern farming is

energy intensive

Type: PNG


• Price of fertilizer increased much faster than food prices (2007-2008)

Increasing the cost of food production and raising the supply function thus food prices.



Climate Factors Drought in major

grain producing areas– Australia, second

largest exporter of wheat

– Wild fires in Russia



Complacency– Ignoring investments in

agricultural education, research and technological adoption.

Investment in agricultural research in developing countries is only 0.6% of GDP richer countries it is 5% of GDP.

Removing government intervention and allowing the market to provide food

– Structural adjustment/ Privatization


OMAN’S POSITION: PAST AND TREND

Oman up to 1970’s with low population (0.65 m) and subsistence farming has been nearly self-sufficient in food.




OMAN’S REPORT TO WORLD FOOD SUMMIT 2006

Food security 2005 (% domestically produced)– Milk 29%– Red meat 34%– Poultry eggs 53%– Poultry meat 35%– Fish 134%– Dates 108%– Total fruits 70%– Total vegetables 56%


Consumption of energy, protein and fat in Oman ( per person per day) from 2005 to 2007 (Source: Adapted from MNE , 2009)


DOMESTIC PRODUCTION CAPACITY: PAST PERFORMANCE (1995-2007)

Annual growth Rates(%(1995-Annual growth Rates(%(1995-2007)2007)

VegetablesVegetables -3.9-3.9

WheatWheat -1.6-1.6

FruitsFruits 7.47.4

MilkMilk 52.052.0

MeatMeat 12.412.4

PoultryPoultry 25.625.6

FishFish 1.71.7

Vegetable Production (Tons)

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

1995 2000 2005 2006 2007

Fruits

Veg

Animal Production (Tons)

050000

100000

150000200000

1995 2000 2005 2006 2007

Meat

Milk

Poultry

Fish

مساحة (فدان) وانتاجالقمح (طن)

0

2000

4000

1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007

المساحة

الإنتاج


OMANS POSITION: PRESENT

Annual inflation in Oman in the past 18 years was 1% or less.

Inflation this year 10%.Food prices have increased by

– 17-20%.


-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

GENERALINFLATION

FOOD INFLATION

World Market was unreliable as a source of food supplyPrice inflation in Oman was one of the highest in GCCNeed to strengthen the role of Local Production in insuring food security

50

100

150

200

250

2000M1 2001M1 2002M1 2003M1 2004M1 2005M1 2006M1 2007M1 2008M1

LESSONS LEARNED FROM 2007-2008 FOOD CRISIS

World food price indices

Oman food price inflation


0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0

Cerals products

Meat&poultry

Fish

Dairy&eggs

Oil&fats

Fruits&veg

Sugar products

Beverage-non alcoholic

Others

%change

Changes in food prices in the Sultanate during 2006-2008


Analysis of Household Expenditure and Income Survey: Food

The Structure of Household Food Consumption BasketOman 2008

12%

16%

7%10%2%9%9%4%

7%

15%4% 5%

Cereals products

Meat &poultry

Fish

Dairy &eggs

Oil&fats

Fruits

vegetable

Sugar products

beverage

resturant food

food from own production

others

Cereals, meat and “Food away from home” dominate (15%) the household food basket


Percent fulfillment of recommended nutrients from actual food consumption


Nutritionally Adequate Least Cost Diet for Oman:

Mathematical Structure of the Model

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NAPLCD value under different food access scenarios

OR/ Month/ Household

Scenario / Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Purchased food items 153.140 154.539 158.001 159.343 168.654 198.900

Purchase food items and restaurant food (70%) 173.272 174.855 178.772 180.290 190.825 225.048

Purchase food items and produce (30%) 139.440 140.839 144.301 145.643 154.954 185.201

Weighted Average 163.1228 164.6499 168.4304 169.8958 180.064 213.0938


Income distribution in Oman

Year 2000 Year 2008

Income (OR/Month/Household) % Households’ Less than 100 8.20 3.00 100-199 12.30 4.70 200-299 13.30 7.60 300-399 12.40 9.00 400-499 10.40 9.50 500-599 8.80 6.50 600-699 5.90 5.70 700 and more 28.70 54.00 Average Income (OR/ Month/Household) 638.000 913.000 Source: MONE (2001 and 2010)


Lorenz curves on income distribution for years 2000 and 2008


Percent of income spent on food with increasing household income


Measures of food insecurity revealing the impact of price increases on food security

Food Security

Headcount Rate (P0)Food Security

Gap (P1)Squared Food Security Gap (P2)

Income Distribution Income Distribution Income Distribution

2003 2008 change 2003 2008 change 2003 2008 change

2008 Prices

42.8 29.3 -13.5 15.2 6.9 -8.3 8.9 3.4 -5.4

2003 Prices

24.0 9.7 -14.3 10.0 3.7 -6.3 6.2 2.3 -4.0

Note: Changes shown between years 2003 and 2008


The cost of alleviating food insecurity

Data for Estimation

NAPLC 2008 OR/Month/Houshold 213

F0 0.29

F1 0.069

Average food Gap 50.67931034

Population Milion 2300000

Number food insecure 667000

Total food gap 116562413.8

GDP 2008 market prices 23185100000

Food Gap/GDP as % 0.502747082


Growth and redistribution decomposition of food security changes (without changes in food prices: 2003 Prices)

Income Distribution

Change in incidence of Food Security

2003 2008Actual change

Growth Redistribution Interaction

Food Security Headcount Rate (P0)

24.02 9.70

-14.32 -6.31 -6.92 -1.09



OMAN’S PROSPECTS: ROLE OF GOVERNMENT

Given resource scarcity and increased population and income;

– Oman will have to depend on world market for food. Government has a role to reduce the risks of high prices

and export restrictions etc.– Improve efficiency of local production

oman-food-security-strategy-increasing-local-production.html– Adopt food safety net policies to improve access to food for poor.

Food ration, food stamp, increase income, …– Maintain justifiable planned buffer stocks and not ‘panic buy’.

qn_news_story_s.asp.htm– Establish a unit to monitor and guide food imports by private sector

Diversify food import sources.– Cultivating in other countries possessing resources 12495.htm– Encourage investments on agriculture (education, research and

production) in Oman and in foreign nations (Food Diplomacy).


OMAN’S SHORT TERM RESPONSE

Secured 200,000 tonnes of rice, sufficient to feed the population for 2 years. (Observer, 4th May 2008)

State workers salaries were increased by 43%.















OMAN’S PROSPECTS: WHEAT





World Average 2.75 MT/Ha Oman Average 3.16 MT/Ha



Oman has traditionally grown wheat and the climate is conducive for wheat production.

At present Oman is in a position to import its wheat requirement. Although wheat prices have increased recently, the increase in oil prices may compensate increases in wheat price.

Reliance on imported wheat alone may put Oman at risk in the event of wheat embargoes.

Considering the limited supply of suitable land and water for agriculture, major shifts in land and water use away from crops cultivated at present will be required to produce significant amounts of wheat.

Therefore, Oman may aim for and achieve partial wheat sovereignty.



OMAN’S PROSPECTS: FISH

The decreased availability of fish in domestic markets is despite increased population and income in Oman.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Fish landed Total exports Local use

000Ton

29%

-12%

83%



It was hypothesized that the transport function of Omani fish markets is inefficient.– The transport function is favoring export

markets instead of domestic markets.

A “Transport Model” based on linear programming was developed for the analysis.


Sohar

Masirah

MahootJBBA

Dubai

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Observed and Optimal Prices: Kingfish



Oman’s fish market if efficient, yet favouring exports over domestic markets.

The big “trade-off” : Efficiency vs. Equity.

Less fish in domestic markets will impact food balance and security, particularly in the interior areas.



Food Waste in Oman: Responsibility of All


Esma’s study

An average Omani family wastes about a third (1/3) of all food prepared within the household.

Omani household typically throws away 70 Omani riyals (Dh9.5) worth of leftover food every month.

Food waste of 3 families can feed 1 poor family for a month.









Please …


Thank you for not wasting food …


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