Pete O’DellPete.odell@swanisland.net

www.swanisland.net

ContextSuspend belief – forget world’s obstacles

for todayWorld, national, local viewsFuture discussion and vision

FrameworkTrendsEmerging marketsThe “Next Big Thing”

“Where there is no vision, the people perish”

Proverbs 29:18

“Economically, the Internet is just like electricity. First, it’s new and exciting. Then it steadily transforms your economy…Decades later nobody would think to call it the electricity economy. It’s just there.”--Robert E. Litan, Economic Studies, Brookings Institute

“Today, [we] are functionally linked together in a vast organic system…The earth [is] not only becoming covered by myriads of grains of thought, but becoming enclosed in a single thinking envelope.” --Teilhard de Chardin, 1925

“There is nothing permanent except change.” – --Heraclitus (540 – 480 B.C.)

The Dimensional Model of world progress0 dimension – conflict among hunter/gatherer

tribes – stay away!1st dimension – trade along natural routes – river

valleys, spice routes2nd dimension – sailing ships, trains, automobiles 3rd dimension – air travel, air cargo4th dimension – wired, electronic skin around the

world starting with the telegraph & telephoneDecreasing time between each dimensionIs there a 5th dimensionSource: Brave New World – William Knoke

(recommended reading!)

A look in the rear-view mirror….Where were you:

December 31, 1999 (Y2K) September 11, 2001

What’s happened since then?Would you go back if you could?What technology has disappeared in your

lifetime (telegraph, memos, telex)

New 21st Century Threats:

•Global terrorism

• Global climate change

• Global crime syndicates (including cyber crime)

• Global pandemics

• Global financial crises

• Critical infrastructure breakdowns

Source: The Federal Response to Hurricane Katrina: Lessons Learned

Disasters Rising!Disasters Rising!

Scenarios – next 30 years:Upward growth spiral: despite terror,

localized conflicts and business cycles, the world marches forward, gaining momentum (as it has since pre-historic time)

Worldwide stagnation: Innovation and economies flatten after an amazing 25 years (Dark Ages lasted several lifetimes)

Worldwide recession/depression: World goes into an economic tailspin for an extended period (the Great Depression of the 30’s relived)

Doomsday: Armageddon, famine, war, the works (SARS gave us a quick look at this)

The World at a crossroadThe US/world at war with terrorismWorldwide economic slowdown (recovery?)What about China?Subprime mortgage meltdown big concernInternet & telecom bubble a distant memoryCan the world absorb Moore’s law?US the one legitimate super-power, but under

extreme world pressureGlobal have’s and have-not’sProblem spread increasing – disease/famine

(persistent) to ID/IP theft (emerging)

Intertwined worldwide issuesEnergyFood/waterHealth/diseaseGlobal warmingPollutionLanguagesTrade blocksIntellectual property

Terrorism/securityEducationPopulation growthAging populationsReligionPoliticalStandardsParadoxes abound

Over-arching trends

Shrinking world (globalization/communications)Rapid adoption for winners (Internet, cellular, DVD, digital cameras)Getting more from less (oil, silicon, acreage, E-Bay)24 x 7 world - speeding up, information overloadEnglish gaining as worldwide languagePower shifting to the individual - global middle class, very hard to control information, spawning more democratic governmentsContradictions abound – free/controlled, rich/poor, fat/hungry, engaged/disenchanted

The Information Age:Human Capital/Intellectual PropertyFew physical resources needed – clean,

high paying jobsSmall groups can build global productsSmall groups can destroy worldwide

(virus)Bits versus Atoms

EFT versus cement blocksNapster versus Compact Disks

Virtuous upward spirals

Business trendsIncreased productivity & offshore

outsourcingMass customization and localizationMerger of the titans, buy versus build

(HP/Compaq, AT&T/ComCast )Innovation in small companiesIntense drive to streamline and retool

operations - little complacencyRapid product obsolescenceEconomies of scale are a curse and blessingGlobal companies bigger than countries

Technology trendsDigital convergence – data, voice, videoInternet/WWW connected Moore’s law marches on – faster, better,

cheaper – chips, storage, & moreWireless – all shapes and flavors Open source software movementSecurity an increasingly important trendWeb 2.0 – collective intelligence,

collaborative intelligence

Internet trendsGreat for publishing documents to peopleE-Bay, Mapquest, Amazon, YahooNo end in sight for global adoptionWireless access – mobile informationBroadband growing, phone access the normXML (eXtensible Markup Language) Web Services and Web 2.0 have great

promiseStill fragile, frustrating and immature –

groaning under the weight of success

Emerging technology todayPersonal Digital Assistants (PDA) and

SmartphonesRFID and embedded sensorsFuel cells – alternative energyHome networkingKnowledge managementSocial networkingBlogging/Life Recording

The Next Big Thing (NBT)Alters the course of mankind – significant impactDifficult to predict and understand at the onset –

many times fits and starts before taking offGenerational deployment & incremental improvementEarly civilizations: Fire, wheel, metal, agriculture,

writing, numbersAdvancing civilizations: gunpowder, compass,

printing, interchangeable parts, steam engine, bill of rights

Recent: Indoor plumbing, medicine, electricity, automobile, airplane, radio, telephone, television, computing

Collaboration and worldwide knowledge one reason for accelerating pace

Nano-technology – NBT?Really, really smallSimple - eat escaped oil in oceanComplex - eat cholesterol from arteries of

a living beingSensors – watch for individual cancer cellsSelf replication – clone more of the samePhysics: Silicon stronger than steel at the

molecular level

The Hydrogen Economy–NBT?Alternative to imported oilLimitless supplyIdeal for fuel cellsCombustion by-product is waterManufactured by extra electricity passing

through waterMassive infrastructure change requiredFixed buildings versus cars!

Biotechnology – NBT?Non-human

Genetically engineered crops – salt water rice, drought resistant cotton

Cloning and manipulation of animals/petsPotential to solve many of the world’s problemsFraught with regulation and protest

HumanGenome mappingCloning and stem cell research debatesGenetic manipulation – cure cancer, AIDS, othersExtended lifespan through lab based organ creation?“All my kingdom for a moment of time” - Queen

Elizabeth

NBT DiscussionAdditional candidates?

Mind to network link – brain based GoogleUnmanned space explorationUbiquitous wireless computing

Realistic? Barriers? Enablers?Timeframe for implementation?Impact on society?Should there be a NBT X prize?

Parting ThoughtsWhat does all this mean to you?What actions will you take?

Ignore Invest Embrace

How do you manage the risks?What about your great-grandkids?