World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts

World Agricultural Outlook BoardInteragency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts

May 9, 2014

May 9, 2014

World Wheat Production

Country or Region2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from 2013/14

Million Tons Percent

World 714.0 697.0 -2.4United States 58.0 53.4 -7.8

Foreign 656.0 643.6 -1.9Argentina 10.5 12.5 19.0Canada 37.5 28.5 -24.0Australia 27.0 25.5 -5.6European Union 143.3 144.9 1.1Russia 52.1 52.0 -0.2Ukraine 22.3 20.0 -10.2Kazakhstan 13.9 14.5 4.0China 121.7 123.0 1.1India 93.5 94.0 0.5

TURKEY

IRAQIRAN

SYRIA

MODIS satelliteNASA GSFC

NDVI Anomaly above

average

below

MIDDLE EAST Winter Grains Crop Situation

TURKEY

IRAQIRAN

SYRIA

23 – 30 Apr 2014

May 9, 2014

4

MODIS Aqua Satellite Composite NDVI Percent Anomaly ImageComparison to mean: 04/23 - 04/30 2014

Spain

France

UnitedKingdom Germany

Sweden

Poland

Czech

AustriaRomaniaHungary

BulgariaItaly

Greece

Slovakia

Ireland

Serbia

Croatia

Denmark

4/23 – 4/30 2013

May 9, 2014

May 9, 2014

World Wheat Supply and Use


2014/15 forecast

Change from 2013/14


Beginning stocks 175.3 186.5 6.4Production 714.0 697.0 -2.4Total Supply 889.3 883.6 -0.6

Feed use 133.0 128.1 -3.7Total use 702.8 696.2 -0.9

Trade 162.0 151.8 -6.3Ending Stocks 186.5 187.4 0.5

May 9, 2014

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from 2013/14Percent

Planted area (million acres) 56.2 55.8 -0.6Harvested area (million acres) 45.2 45.9 1.7Yield (bushels per acre) 47.2 42.7 -9.5

Million bushelsBeginning stocks 718 583 -18.8Production 2,130 1,963 -7.8Imports 175 160 -8.6Total supply 3,023 2,706 -10.5

Food use 960 970 1.0Seed 74 76 2.2Feed and residual 220 170 -22.7Domestic use 1,254 1,216 -3.1

Exports 1,185 950 -19.8Total use 2,439 2,166 -11.2

Ending stocks 583 540 -7.3Percent

Stocks to use ratio 23.9 25.0Dollars per bushel

Average market price 6.85 6.65/7.95 6.6

May 9, 2014

World Rice ProductionCountry or

Region2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from 2013/14


World 476.1 480.7 1.0United States 6.1 6.8 11.4

Foreign 470.0 473.9 0.8Brazil 8.6 8.5 -1.2Egypt 4.9 4.9 0.4Bangladesh 34.6 34.8 0.6Cambodia 4.7 4.9 3.7China 142.3 144.0 1.2India 105.0 106.0 1.0Indonesia 37.4 37.7 0.9Japan 7.8 7.7 -1.7Sri Lanka 2.8 2.8 1.8Pakistan 6.6 6.7 1.5Philippines 11.9 12.2 2.6Thailand 20.5 20.5 0.0Vietnam 27.8 27.8 0.0

May 9, 2014

World Rice Supply and UseCountry or

Region2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from 2013/14


Beginning stocks 110.1 111.2 1.0Production 476.1 480.7 1.0Total Supply 586.2 592.0 1.0Total use 475.0 482.2 1.5

Trade 40.8 41.4 1.5Ending Stocks 111.2 109.8 -1.3

May 9, 2014

U.S. Rice Supply and DemandRough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice

2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast


Planted area (million acres) 2.49 2.88 15.6Harvested area (million acres) 2.47 2.85 15.6Yield (pounds per acre) 7,694 7,468 -2.9

Million cwtBeginning stocks 36.4 29.3 -19.5Production 189.9 213.0 12.2Imports 22.0 22.0 0.0Total supply 248.3 264.3 6.4

Domestic use 124.0 128.0 3.2Exports 95.0 102.0 7.4Total use 219.0 230.0 5.0

Ending stocks 29.3 34.3 17.1Percent

Stocks to use ratio 13.4 14.9Dollars per cwt

Average market price 15.80/16.40 15.00/16.00 -3.7

May 9, 2014

World Corn Production

World wheat World wheat


2013/14 forecast

Change from previous month

Change from 2012/13

Previous month Country or Region

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from 2012/13

Million Tons Percent Percent 1 3 1 3 6 2 Million Tons Percent Afghanistan

World 655.6 697.9 #REF! 6.4 #REF! #REF! 655.6 #REF! 697.9 #REF! #REF! World 655.6 697.9 6.4 Albania

United States 61.8 54.4 #REF! -11.9 United States #REF! #REF! 61.8 #REF! 54.4 #REF! #REF! United States 61.8 54.4 -11.9 Algeria

Foreign 593.9 643.5 #REF! 8.4 #REF! #REF! 593.9 #REF! 643.5 #REF! #REF! Foreign 593.9 643.5 8.4 Angola

Argentina 11.0 13.0 #REF! 18.2 Argentina #REF! 11.0 #REF! #REF! 13.0 #REF! #REF! Argentina 11.0 13.0 18.2 Argentina

Canada 27.2 27.5 #REF! 1.1 Canada #REF! #REF! 27.2 #REF! 27.5 #REF! #REF! Canada 27.2 27.5 1.1 Armenia

Australia 22.1 24.5 #REF! 11.0 Australia #REF! #REF! 22.1 #REF! 24.5 #REF! #REF! Australia 22.1 24.5 11.0 Australia

European Union 132.1 138.8 #REF! 5.1 EU-27 #REF! #REF! 132.1 #REF! 138.8 #REF! #REF! European Union 132.1 138.8 5.1 Azerbaijan

Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 #REF! 48.5 Russia #REF! #REF! 37.7 #REF! 56.0 #REF! #REF! Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 48.5 Bahrain

Ukraine 15.8 22.0 #REF! 39.6 Ukraine #REF! #REF! 15.8 #REF! 22.0 #REF! #REF! Ukraine 15.8 22.0 39.6 Bangladesh

Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 #REF! 52.4 Kazakhstan #REF! #REF! 9.8 #REF! 15.0 #REF! #REF! Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 52.4 Barbados

China 120.6 121.0 #REF! 0.3 China #REF! 120.6 #REF! #REF! 121.0 #REF! #REF! China 120.6 121.0 0.3 Belarus

India 94.9 92.0 #REF! -3.0 India #REF! #REF! 94.9 #REF! 92.0 #REF! #REF! India 94.9 92.0 -3.0 Bhutan

Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cameroon Canada Chad Chile China Colombia Congo (Brazzaville) Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Eritrea Ethiopia EU-25 EU-27 Fiji Gabon Georgia Ghana Guatemala Guinea Guyana Haiti Honduras Hong Kong India Indonesia Iran Iraq Israel Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Macedonia Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Nepal New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Norway Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Romania Russia Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Serbia and Montenegro Sierra Leone Singapore Somalia South Africa Sri Lanka Sudan Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine United Arab Emirates United States Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast Previous month


2014/15 forecast

Change from 2013/14



Foreign 625.3 625.1 0.0Argentina 24.0 26.0 8.3Brazil 75.0 74.0 -1.3Mexico 21.9 22.5 2.7Canada 14.2 12.5 -12.0European Union 64.6 64.6 0.1FSU-12 47.0 42.7 -9.2Ukraine 30.9 26.0 -15.9Russia 11.6 12.5 7.4

South Africa 14.0 13.5 -3.6China 217.7 220.0 1.0India 23.0 22.0 -4.3

Source: State Statistical Committee

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Ukraine: Estimated Corn Area and Abandonment

Area Harv Abandoned

KHa

Abandonment is forecast at nearly 7 percent, twice the 5-year average.

May 9, 2014

Apr 24 May 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 June 40.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Ukraine Corn Planting Progress

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ion

hect

ares

Source: MinAg

Corn planting was 79% complete by May

8.

May 9, 2014

Sources: GTIS (seed imports); USDA (yield)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Ukraine: Seed-Corn Imports and Corn Yield

Through Jan After Jan Yield

Seed

impo

rts

(1,0

00 to

ns)

Yiel

d (T

ons

per h

ecta

re)

• GTIS data are available only through January.• Louis-Dreyfus analyst reports that corn-hybrid seed

imports were up 50 percent at the end of February.• An estimated 25 to 50 percent of total corn area is

planted with hybrid seed.

May 9, 2014

Ja

n 0

7

Ja

n 0

8

Ja

n 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Ja

n 1

3

Ja

n 1

40

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Ukraine Currency Exchange Rate: UAH to USDU

AH

/US

D

According to chief APK-Inform analyst, the decrease and fluctuation of the value of the UAH in 2009 had an unfavorable impact on spring-crop yields in Ukraine.

May 9, 2014

A 40-percent drop in the value of the UAH has increased prices for fuel, fertilizer, and chemicals. Producers will compensate by:

• using cheaper materials;• purchasing untreated seed and treating it

themselves;• focusing on fields with higher yield potential;• consolidating field operations.

Weather remains the top yield determinant.

May 9, 2014

May 9, 2014

World Corn Supply and Use


2014/15 forecast

Change from 2013/14


Beginning stocks 138.2 168.4 21.9Production 979.0 979.1 0.0Total Supply 1,117.2 1,147.5 2.7

Feed use 574.7 592.3 3.1Total use 948.8 965.8 1.8


May 9, 2014

U.S. Corn Supply and Demand



2013/14 forecast


Change from 2012/13


2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from 2012/13















2012/13 estimate


2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast


Planted area (million acres) 95.4 91.7 -3.9Harvested area (million acres) 87.7 84.3 -3.8Yield (bushels per acre) 158.8 165.3 4.1

Million bushelsBeginning stocks 821 1,146 39.6Production 13,925 13,935 0.1Imports 35 30 -14.3Total supply 14,781 15,111 2.2

Feed and residual 5,300 5,250 -0.9Food, seed, and industrial 6,435 6,435 0.0Ethanol 5,050 5,050 0.0Domestic use 11,735 11,685 -0.4

Exports 1,900 1,700 -10.5Total use 13,635 13,385 -1.8

Ending stocks 1,146 1,726 50.6Percent


Average market price 4.50/4.80 3.85/4.55 -9.7

18

Corn Yield• Yield = F (mid-May planting, July temperatures and precipitation, and June

precipitation if extremely dry)• 8-State Corn Belt area (IL, IN, IA, MN, MO, NE, SD, OH)• States normally account for about 75 percent of productionSource: Westcott and Jewison, Weather Effects on Expected Corn and Soybean Yields, USDA-ERS,

Feed Outlook No. (FDS-13G-01), July 2013.

• July temperature and precipitation assumed at the 1988-2013 means

• 8-state planting progress as of mid-May• Ag Outlook Forum trend of 165.3 assumed normal mid-May planting

progress• May 15, 2014, unknown until the May 19th Crop Progress report• May 4th progress at 29.1 percent for 8-state region, well ahead of last year at

this time, but behind normal.

May 9, 2014

Corn Planting Progress

4/6

4/9

4/12

4/15

4/18

4/21

4/24

4/27

4/30 5/

35/

65/

95/

125/

155/

185/

215/

245/

275/

300

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

29.1

1990-2013 Avg. 20122013 2014

Comparable weeks based on NASS reporting week

Percent

47.1

60.3

17.7

64.8

Source: NASS, Quick Stats 2.0

5/15

May 9, 2014

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

Actual Yield

Weather-Adjusted Trend

May WASDE Projection

bu/acre

2014 Ag Outlook Forum: 165.32014 May WASDE: 165.3

Corn Weather-Adjusted Trend Yield vs. Actual and Projected

May 9, 2014

May 9, 2014

World Soybean Production



2013/14 forecast


Change from 2012/13


2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from 2012/13















2012/13 estimate


Country or Region

2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from 2013/14



Foreign 194.3 200.9 3.4Argentina 54.0 54.0 0.0Brazil 87.5 91.0 4.0Paraguay 8.1 8.2 1.2Ukraine 2.8 3.2 15.4India 11.0 12.0 9.1China 12.2 12.0 -1.6

May 9, 2014

U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand



2013/14 forecast


Change from 2012/13


2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from 2012/13















2012/13 estimate


2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast


Planted area (million acres) 76.5 81.5 6.5Harvested area (million acres) 75.9 80.5 6.1Yield (bushels per acre) 43.3 45.2 4.3

Million bushelsBeginning stocks 141 130 -7.7Production 3,289 3,635 10.5Imports 90 15 -83.3Total supply 3,519 3,780 7.4

Crush 1,695 1,715 1.2Seed and residual 95 110 16.1Domestic use 1,790 1,825 2.0

Exports 1,600 1,625 1.6Total use 3,390 3,450 1.8

Ending stocks 130 330 154.2Percent


Average market price 13.10 9.75/11.75 -17.9

Soybean Weather-Adjusted Trend Yield vs. Actual and Projected

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

25

30

35

40

45

50

Actual YieldWeather-Adjusted TrendMay WASDE Projection

bu/acre

2014 Ag Outlook Forum: 45.22014 May WASDE: 45.2

May 9, 2014

World Cotton Production



2013/14 forecast


Change from 2012/13


2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from 2012/13















2012/13 estimate



2014/15 forecast

Change from 2013/14

Million Bales Percent

World 117.1 115.5 -1.4United States 12.9 14.5 12.3

Foreign 104.2 101.0 -3.1Argentina 1.2 1.2 0.4Brazil 7.5 8.3 10.7Turkey 2.3 2.9 26.1Syria 0.6 0.3 -50.0Australia 4.1 3.1 -24.4China 32.0 29.5 -7.8India 29.5 28.5 -3.4Pakistan 9.5 9.5 0.0Uzbekistan 4.2 4.2 1.2African Franc Zone 4.3 4.1 -4.0

May 9, 2014

Percent of Normal Rainfall

2011/12 = 150%2012/13 = 97%2013/14 = 73%

NSW/QLD Border RegionCumulative Precipitation

May 1 – April 30

May 9, 2014

May 9, 2014

El NinoEpisodes

(remember, this is defined by sea-surface temps!)

El NinoOnset

(when did the sea-surface temp

anomalies appear?)

NegativeSOI

(how did the atmosphere respond?)

Growingseasonrainfall

DrylandArea

(1,000 ha)

2002/03 May(normal onset)

Jun – Oct(quickly – prior to

planting)Below normal 5

2004/05 Jul(normal onset)

Dec – Apr(more slowly – during growing

season)

Near to above normal

33

2006/07 Sep(late onset)

Jul – Oct(quickly – prior to

planting)Below normal 23

2009/10 Jul(normal onset)

Dec – Jan(more slowly – during growing

season)

Near to above normal

15

How does El Nino Impact Australian Cotton?

Much too early to determine El Nino’s impact on production……but the perceived threat may drive acreage.

May 9, 2014

May 9, 2014

World Cotton Supply and Use


2014/15 forecast

Change from 2013/14

Million Bales Percent

Beginning stocks 90.0 97.9 8.7Production 117.1 115.5 -1.4Total Supply 207.2 213.4 3.0Total Use 109.4 111.8 2.2


Addendum:China Ending Stocks 59.6 60.5 1.6

May 9, 2014

U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand



2013/14 forecast


Change from 2012/13


2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from 2012/13















2012/13 estimate


2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast


Planted area (million acres) 10.41 11.10 6.7Harvested area (million acres) 7.54 8.45 12.0Yield (pounds per acre) 821 824 0.4

Million balesBeginning stocks 3.90 2.80 -28.2Imports 0.01 0.01 0.0Production 12.91 14.50 12.3Total supply 16.82 17.31 2.9

Mill use 3.60 3.70 2.8Exports 10.40 9.70 -6.7

Total use 14.00 13.40 -4.3Unaccounted 0.02 0.01 0.0

Ending stocks 2.80 3.90 39.3Percent

Stocks/use 20.0 29.1Cents per pound

Average market price 77.5 63.0/83.0 -5.8

Three-Year Running Annual Precipitation Totals, Lubbock, TX

Driest 3-Year Periods1. 2011-132. 1952-543. 1951-534. 1954-565. 1953-55

Wettest 3-Year Periods1. 1967-692. 1985-873. 2006-084. 2008-105. 2007-09

May 9, 2014

2011-13 1916-18 1933-35 1952-540

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Lubbock Texas3-Year Rainfall totals (inches)

36-Month Totals

3-Year Average: 55.5”

May 9, 2014

Cotton Abandonment RatesMay 2014 WASDE

SE Delta SW Far West US0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2011 2012-2013 Avg. May Estimate

perc

ent

aban

done

d

May 9, 2014

U.S. Cotton Yield/Harvested Acre 2006-2013 and May 2014 Projection

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

Crop year

lbs.

/har

vest

ed a

cre

Projected yield = 824 lbs.

May 9, 2014

May 9, 2014

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from 2013/14

Thousand MT, raw value Percent

Beginning stocks 1,460 947 -35.1Production 6,350 6,500 2.4Imports 226 226 0.0Total Supply 8,036 7,673 -4.5

Domestic use 4,690 4,690 0.0Exports 2,399 2,036 -15.1Total Use 7,089 6,726 -5.1

Ending stocks 947 947 0.0

May 9, 2014

U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from 2013/14

1,000 short tons, raw value PercentBeginning Stocks 2,158 1,596 -26.1Production 8,480 8,495 0.2Beets 4,800 4,750 -1.0Cane 3,680 3,745 1.8

Imports 3,334 3,093 -7.2TRQ 1,369 1,262 -7.8Re-export 110 400 263.6Mexico 1,845 1,421 -23.0High-tier 10 10 0.0Total Supply 13,972 13,184 -5.6

Exports 325 250 -23.1Domestic deliveries 12,051 11,835 -1.8

Total use 12,376 12,085 -2.4Ending stocks 1,596 1,099 -31.2

Percent

Stocks/use ratio 12.9 9.1

May 9, 2014

U.S. Meat Production and Prices2014

estimate2015

forecastChange from

2014Production Billion pounds PercentBeef 24.56 24.32 -1.0Pork 22.66 23.31 2.9Broilers 38.43 39.28 2.2Turkey 5.70 5.93 4.0Total meat 92.13 93.62 1.6

Prices Dollars/cwtSteers 146.09 150.75 3.2Hogs 77.92 72.75 -6.6

Cents/lbBroilers 103.4 103.8 0.4Turkey 105.7 106.5 0.8

May 9, 2014

U.S. Meat TradeMillion Pounds



2013/14 forecast


Change from 2012/13


2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from 2012/13















2012/13 estimate


2014 estimate

2015 forecast

Change from 2014

Exports Percent

Beef 2,508 2,425 -3.3

Pork 4,850 5,035 3.8

Broilers 7,531 7,625 1.2

Turkey 713 750 5.1

Mature Chickens 103 125 21.2

Total meat 15,714 15,969 1.6

ImportsBeef 2,396 2,445 2.0

May 9, 2014

U.S. Milk Supply and Demand



2013/14 forecast


Change from 2012/13


2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from 2012/13















2012/13 estimate


2014 estimate

2015 forecast

Change from 2014

Billion pounds PercentProduction 206.1 212.1 2.9Imports 3.4 3.4 -1.0Commercial use 195.5 200.7 2.6Exports 13.3 12.7 -4.4

Class prices Dollars/cwtClass III 20.70 17.40 -15.9Class IV 21.45 19.10 -11.0All milk 22.85 20.20 -11.6

1/ Prices are mid-point of published forecasts; milk of average fat test.

May 9, 2014

U.S. Dairy Product Prices



2013/14 forecast


Change from 2012/13


2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from 2012/13















2012/13 estimate


2014 estimate

2015 forecast

Change from 2014

Product prices Dollars/pound Percent

Cheese 2.01 1.72 -14.5

Butter 1.83 1.68 -8.2

Nonfat dry milk 1.84 1.64 -10.9

Dry whey 0.64 0.57 -11.1

Class prices Dollars/cwt

Class III 20.70 17.40 -15.9

Class IV 21.45 19.10 -11.0

All milk 22.85 20.20 -11.6

May 9, 2014

U.S. Production Summary



2013/14 forecast


Change from 2012/13


2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from 2012/13















2012/13 estimate


2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast


Crops and ProductsWheat (Million bu) 2,130 1,963 -7.8Rice (Million cwt) 189.9 213.0 12.2Corn (Million bu) 13,925 13,935 0.1Sorghum (Million bu) 389 360 -7.5Barley (Million bu) 215 196 -8.9Oats (Million bu) 66 71 7.8Soybeans (Million bu) 3,289 3,635 10.5Soybean oil (Million lbs) 19,745 19,810 0.3Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 40,010 40,735 1.8Cotton (Million bales) 12.91 14.50 12.3Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 8,480 8,495 0.2

Milk (Billion lbs) 206.1 212.1 2.9

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 24.56 24.32 -1.0Pork 22.66 23.31 2.9Broilers 38.43 39.28 2.2Turkey 5.70 5.93 4.0Total Meat 92.13 93.62 1.6

May 9, 2014

Domestic Demand Summary



2013/14 forecast


Change from 2012/13


2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from 2012/13















2012/13 estimate


2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast


Crops and ProductsWheat (Million bu) 1,254 1,216 -3.1Rice (Million cwt) 124.0 128.0 3.2Corn (Million bu) 11,735 11,685 -0.4Sorghum (Million bu) 205 195 -4.9Barley (Million bu) 215 214 -0.5Oats (Million bu) 165 157 -4.8Soybeans (Million bu) 1,790 1,825 2.0Soybean oil (Million lbs) 18,450 18,100 -1.9Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 29,200 29,700 1.7Cotton (Million bales) 3.60 3.70 2.8Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 12,051 11,835 -1.8

Milk (Billion lbs) 195.5 200.7 2.6

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 24.58 24.41 -0.7Pork 18.82 19.12 1.6Broilers 30.64 31.33 2.2Turkey 5.00 5.13 2.7Total meat 79.89 80.82 1.2

May 9, 2014

U.S. Export Summary



2013/14 forecast


Change from 2012/13


2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from 2012/13















2012/13 estimate


2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast


Crops and productsWheat (Million bu) 1,185 950 -19.8Rice (Million cwt) 95.0 102.0 7.4Corn (Million bu) 1,900 1,700 -10.5Sorghum (Million bu) 180 160 -11.1Barley (Million bu) 12 10 -16.7Soybeans (Million bu) 1,600 1,625 1.6Soybean oil (Million lbs) 1,650 1,700 3.0Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 11,100 11,200 0.9Cotton (Million bales) 10.40 9.70 -6.7

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 2,508 2,425 -3.3Pork 4,850 5,035 3.8Broilers 7,531 7,625 1.2Turkey 713 750 5.1Mature Chickens 103 125 21.2Total meat 15,714 15,969 1.6

May 9, 2014

Price Summary2013/14 estimate

2014/15 forecast

Change from 2013/14

PercentCrops and productsWheat ($/bu) 6.85 7.30 6.6Rice ($/cwt) 16.10 15.50 -3.7Corn ($/bu) 4.65 4.20 -9.7Soybeans ($/bu) 13.10 10.75 -17.9Soybean oil (¢/lb) 40.00 39.00 -2.5Soybean meal ($/s.t.) 485.00 375.00 -22.7Cotton (¢/lb) 77.50 73.00 -5.8

LivestockSteers ($/cwt) 146.1 150.8 3.2Hogs ($/cwt) 77.9 72.8 -6.6Broilers (¢/lb) 103.4 103.8 0.4Turkeys (¢/lb) 105.7 106.5 0.8

Dairy productsCheese 2.01 1.72 -14.5Butter 1.83 1.68 -8.2Nonfat dry milk 1.84 1.64 -10.9Dry whey 0.64 0.57 -11.1

Milk classesClass III ($/cwt) 20.70 17.40 -15.9Class IV ($/cwt) 21.45 19.10 -11.0All milk ($/cwt) 22.85 20.20 -11.6

Date post:	26-Jan-2016
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World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts

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