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World animal protein requirements and challenges...Animal protein consumption growing 4 0 50 100 150...

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PIX/AMC 2016 Angus Gidley-Baird @angusgb World animal protein requirements and challenges for sustainable milling
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Page 1: World animal protein requirements and challenges...Animal protein consumption growing 4 0 50 100 150 200 250 Beef and Veal (cwe) Pigmeat (cwe) Poultry meat (rtc) Sheepmeat (cwe) Dairy

PIX/AMC 2016 Angus Gidley-Baird

@angusgb

World animal protein requirements and challenges for sustainable milling

Page 2: World animal protein requirements and challenges...Animal protein consumption growing 4 0 50 100 150 200 250 Beef and Veal (cwe) Pigmeat (cwe) Poultry meat (rtc) Sheepmeat (cwe) Dairy
Page 3: World animal protein requirements and challenges...Animal protein consumption growing 4 0 50 100 150 200 250 Beef and Veal (cwe) Pigmeat (cwe) Poultry meat (rtc) Sheepmeat (cwe) Dairy

The changing world

Growing population Growing wealth Growing consumer

Page 4: World animal protein requirements and challenges...Animal protein consumption growing 4 0 50 100 150 200 250 Beef and Veal (cwe) Pigmeat (cwe) Poultry meat (rtc) Sheepmeat (cwe) Dairy

Animal protein consumption growing

4

0

50

100

150

200

250

Beef and Veal(cwe)

Pigmeat (cwe) Poultry meat(rtc)

Sheepmeat(cwe)

Dairy Fish

Mill

ion

tonn

es

2005 2015 2024f

11% 8% 20% 18% 18%

13%

By 2024 we will need an additional 72 million tonnes of animal protein

Source: OECD FAO, Rabobank, 2016

Page 5: World animal protein requirements and challenges...Animal protein consumption growing 4 0 50 100 150 200 250 Beef and Veal (cwe) Pigmeat (cwe) Poultry meat (rtc) Sheepmeat (cwe) Dairy

5

Overview – grain usage for animal feed increasing

Source: JCS Solutions, ABS, Dairy Australia, Australian Egg Corporation, MLA, ALFA, Rabobank 2016

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Beef Dairy Poultry Layer Pork Aquaculture

Page 6: World animal protein requirements and challenges...Animal protein consumption growing 4 0 50 100 150 200 250 Beef and Veal (cwe) Pigmeat (cwe) Poultry meat (rtc) Sheepmeat (cwe) Dairy

Is there a natural limit to chicken consumption?

6

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Per c

apita

con

sum

ptio

n (k

g/pa

)

United States EU-28 Brazil Australia New Zealand MalaysiaSource: OECD FAO, Rabobank, 2016

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Per c

apita

con

sum

ptio

n (k

g/pa

)

United States EU-28 Brazil Australia New Zealand Malaysia

Page 7: World animal protein requirements and challenges...Animal protein consumption growing 4 0 50 100 150 200 250 Beef and Veal (cwe) Pigmeat (cwe) Poultry meat (rtc) Sheepmeat (cwe) Dairy

Growth prospects for chicken meat

7

• Develop new markets

• Capturing a larger share of consumer spending

• Improving margins through productivity gains

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

Australian production Slow growth

Strong growth Forecast

Page 8: World animal protein requirements and challenges...Animal protein consumption growing 4 0 50 100 150 200 250 Beef and Veal (cwe) Pigmeat (cwe) Poultry meat (rtc) Sheepmeat (cwe) Dairy

What do consumers want

8

Sustainable

Barn laid

Cage free

Free range

No preservatives

Organic

Anti-biotic free

No artificial flavours

No artificial colours

Natural Gluten free

Fairtrade

CertifiedSource: Albert Heijn; Rabobank, 2016

Page 9: World animal protein requirements and challenges...Animal protein consumption growing 4 0 50 100 150 200 250 Beef and Veal (cwe) Pigmeat (cwe) Poultry meat (rtc) Sheepmeat (cwe) Dairy

Consumers want to know what’s in their chicken

Source: Perdue; Rabobank, 2016

Page 10: World animal protein requirements and challenges...Animal protein consumption growing 4 0 50 100 150 200 250 Beef and Veal (cwe) Pigmeat (cwe) Poultry meat (rtc) Sheepmeat (cwe) Dairy

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This document has been prepared exclusively for your benefit and does not carry any right of publication or disclosure other than to Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A. (“Rabobank”), registered in Amsterdam. Neither this document nor any of its contents may be distributed, reproduced or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Rabobank. The information in this document reflects prevailing market conditions and our judgement as of this date, all of which may be subject to change. This document is based on public information. The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable, without independent verification. The information and opinions contained in this document are indicative and for discussion purposes only. No rights may be derived from any potential offers, transactions, commercial ideas et cetera contained in this document. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation. This document shall not form the basis of or cannot be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information in this document is not intended and may not be understood as an advice (including without limitation an advice within the meaning of article 1:1 and article 4:23 of the Dutch Financial Supervision Act). This document is governed by Dutch law. The competent court in Amsterdam, The Netherlands has exclusive jurisdiction to settle any dispute which may arise out of or in connection with this document and/or any discussions or negotiations based on it. This report has been published in line with Rabobank’s long-term commitment to international food and agribusiness. It is one of a series of publications undertaken by the global department of Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory. ©2016 - All Rights Reserved.

Thank you

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