Document of aFIL CO P YD The World Bank F 0'aU"' FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 2906-TA STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT TANZANIA COCONUT PILOT PROJECT August 14, 1980 Eastern Africa Region Southern Agriculture Division This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
Transcript
Document of aFIL CO P YDThe World Bank F 0'aU"'
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Report No. 2906-TA
STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT
TANZANIA
COCONUT PILOT PROJECT
August 14, 1980
Eastern Africa RegionSouthern Agriculture Division
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance oftheir official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.
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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
Current Units = Tanzania Shillings (Tsh)US$0.12 = Tsh 1.00US$1.00 = Tsh 8.30
US$1.00 = SDR 0.755068
WEIGHTS AND MEASURES
Metric British/US Equivalents
1 meter (m) = 3.28 feet1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres1 kilometer (km) 2 = 0.62 mile1 square kilometer (km ) = 0.39 square mile (sq mi)1 kilogram (kg) = 2.2 pounds (lb)1 liter = 0.26 US gallon (gal)
= 0.22 British gallon (imp gal)1 metric ton = 2,205 pounds (lb)
ABBREVIATIONS
FRG - Federal Republic of GermanyGAPEX - General Agricultural Products Export CorporationGOT - Government of Tanzania
GTZ - German Agency for Technical CooperationIRHO - Institut De Recherches Pour Les Huiles Et
OleagineuxMARI - Mlingano Agricultural Research InstituteMDB Marketing Development BureauNAFCO - National Agricultural and Food CorporationPPMB - Project Preparation and Monitoring Bureau of the
Ministry of AgricultureTIRDEP - Tanga Integrated Regional Development ProjectTRDB - Tanzania Rural Development Bank
FISCAL YEAR
Government - July 1 - June 30
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLYTANZANIA
COCONUT PILOT PROJECT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page No.
I. BACKGROUND ........ .............................. 1
A. Project Background ............ .. 1............ B. The Agricultural Sector ............... IC. Agricultural and Rural Development Strategy.. 2D. Agricultural Services ....................... 2E. Agricultural Marketing and Pricing ......... 4F. Previous Bank Group Assistance .............. 5
II. COCONUT SUB-SECTOR ...... ......................... 5
A. General ............................... 5B. Coconut Production .................. 6C. Diseases and Pests .................. 7D. Research and Extension .. .................... 8E. Marketing and Processing ............... 9F. Future Prospects ............ .. .............. 10
III. PROJECT CONCEPT AND SCOPE .......... .. ........... 10
A. Project Rationale ...... ...................... 10B. The Federal Republic of Germany Project ...... 12C. The Project Area ...... ...................... 13
IV. THE PROJECT .............................. 14
A. General Description . . 14B. Detailed Features ............ .. ............. 15C. Project Costs ................... 22D. Financing .................. ................. 24
V. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION .......................... 25
A. Management ................. ................. 25B. Procurement ................. ................ 25C. Disbursement .............. .. ................ 26D. Accounts and Audit ........... .. ............. 27E. Reporting, Monitoring and Evaluation ........ 27
VI. PROJECT BENEFITS ................. ................ 28
VII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......... 29
This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission consistingof A. Sidhu, J. Wijnand, A. Malik and A. Klempin (all IDA) which visitedTanzania in October, 1979.
|This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance |lof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.|
ANNEXES
Supporting Charts, Tables and Maps
Chart C-1 Schedule of ImplementationChart C-2 Organizational Chart
Table T-1 Export of Coconut ProductsTable T-2 Illustrative Hectare BudgetTable T-3 Ecological DataTable T-4 Estimated Schedule of DisbursementsTable T-5 Summary of Project costsTable T-5a Varietal TrialsTable T-5b Improved Maintenance and Rehabilitation
Trials - Chambezi
Table T-5c Improved Maintenance and RehabilitationTrials - Zegereni
Table T-5d Improved Maintenance and RehabilitationTrials - Zanzibar
1.01 The Project was identified by an IDA mission in May, 1978 andprepared by the Government of Tanzania (GOT) with assistance from FAO/CP inMay, 1979. It was appraised by an IDA mission comprising of A. Sidhu, J.Wijnand, A. Malik and A. Klempin (all IDA) in October, 1979. The overallobjective of the Project is to develop a strong base from which future pro-grams for rehabilitating the ailing coconut industry in Tanzania could beundertaken. Specifically the Project would assist in the formulation of atechnical package for improved production of coconuts and train local staffto carry out projects related to the rehabilitation and development of thecoconut industry.
B. The Agricultural Sector
1.02 Tanzania's population (about 17 million in 1979)is increasing at arate of about 3% per annum. Per capita GNP for 1978 is estimated at US$230.Real growth of GDP averaged about 5% per annum over the period 1976 - 78.Roughly' 50% of GDP is derived from agriculture and related activities,about half of this contribution coming from subsistence production. More than90% of the population is engaged in agriculture. About 70% of Tanzania'sforeign exchange earnings from merchandise exports are accounted for byunprocessed agricultural commodities, and a further 7% by processed farmproducts. The major export commodities are coffee, cotton, cashewnuts, tea,and tobacco.
1.03 Large-scale agriculture is confined to a small number of privateestates and state farms producing sisal, coffee, tea, wheat, rice and live-stock. The largely traditionally managed livestock herd, estimated at10 million head, is grazed extensively over the 40% of the country freefrom tsetse fly.
1.04 The recent performance of the agricultural sector has been sluggish.Over the period 1967-77, the average annual rate of growth of agriculturalproduction was about 2.7%. From the late 1960's onward food production hasfailed to keep pace with population growth and as a result, Tanzania hasbecome increasingly dependent on rice and wheat imports. The effects of thisslow growth were exacerbated in 1973 and 1974 by poor harvests as a result ofa severe drought which necessitated large importations of food grains. Since1975, however, overall agricultural production has recovered, increasing inreal terms at an average annual rate of 7%. At the same time there has been ashift from cash crops toward food crop production. Despite food crop produc-tion increases, rising demand for food crops has resulted in Tanzania continu-ing to depend on imports of rice and wheat.
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C. Agricultural and Rural Development Strategy
1.05 The Government has undertaken a program to support the developmentof the agricultural sector, in conjunction with efforts to achieve balancedregional growth and more equitable income distribution. Within these objec-tives, the Government is paying particular attention to achieving self-sufficiency in food production and to supporting export crops. Greateremphasis is now being placed on the production rather than the social aspectsof rural development projects. In 1972, Government administration was decen-tralized to the regional and district levels in order to plan developmentprograms more closely related to the needs of the new villages. Since Independ-ence, but particularly since 1970, the Government, in order to facilitate theprovision of infrastructure and services to the rural population, and toencourage self reliance and a community approach to rural development, adopteda strategy whose key element has been the grouping of dispersed farm familiesinto villages.
1.06 There are at present about 7,700 registered villages, allocated foradministrative purposes into 1,828 rural wards, containing over three-quartersof Tanzania's rural population. The village is intended to be the country'sprimary social, economic and political unit. Basic social services, includinghealth facilities, schools and water supply systems, are to be provided.Economic services, including provision of credit, supply of inputs, organizationof extension services and marketing of produce, are to be coordinated at thevillage level. Economic infrastructure, such as storage godowns, processingequipment and small-scale industries, are to be village-owned investments.
D. Agricultural Services
Research
1.07 Agricultural research in Tanzania is undertaken by a number ofgovernment agencies but the Ministry of Agriculture (Kilimo) is responsiblefor overall guidance of the national research effort, and operates a networkof crop and livestock research stations. Tanzania's research system, whichhas deteriorated over the years, has several weaknesses. Kilimo has notbeen able to exercise effective control and, as a result, priorities have notalways been firmly established, the regional emphasis has been unclear, andresearch resources have not been allocated in accordance with developmentprioritles. There is a need for sharper focus on improving knowledge onTanzania's agro-economic zones, and on improving the farming systems in thesezones through a greater emphasis on field testing. The links between researchand extension are weak because of poor coordination between the Regions, whoare responsible for extension, and Kilimo who is in charge of research andtraining.
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1.08 The Tanzanian research system already receives support under theTabora Rural Development Project (Cr. 803-TA). Tanzania is also increasingits links with various international agricultural research institutes sup-ported through the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research(CGIAR).
Extension
1.09 Responsibility for agricultural extension in Tanzania is dividedbetween Kilimo (which trains extension staff), the twenty regional adminis-trations (which are responsible for the day-to-day management of about halfof the country's extension staff) and some crop parastatals (which employthe remaining extension staff). In early 1978, a total of 100 graduates,3,000 field officers with formal diploma or certificate-level training, and3,500 field assistants with little formal training, were involved in extensionwork. Extension efforts have been relatively ineffective. As a resultof the weak research base, relatively few proven technical packages areavailable. Many field staff are inadequately trained and supervised, andreceive limited logistical support. The situation was made worse in 1978 bythe decision of Government to appoint salaried Village Managers to eachregistered village. Many of the better trained extension staff were trans-ferred to become Village Managers. The relationship between Village Managers,extension agents and Village Management Technicians 1/ remains unclear, andKilimo and the Prime Minister's Office (which has overall responsibility forregional administration) hold differing views on how extension should beorganized in the future. IDA has made proposals to Government on the reorgan-ization of the extension service, using the principles of the 'training andvisit' system adapted to Tanzania conditions, and the extension services inMwanza and Shinyanga regions are being reorganized along these lines as partof the IDA-supported Rural Development Project for these regions (Cr. 803-Ta).Kilimo is currently drawing up a comprehensive plan for the overall developmentof agricultural extension. Progress on the improvement of extension serviceshas continued to be slow.
Credit
1.10 The major agencies involved in the provision of credit to the agri-cultural sector are the National Bank of Commerce (NBC) and the TanzaniaRural Development Bank (TRDB). NBC is the main source of short-term credit toparastatals for produce marketing, and in addition provides about two-thirdsof the total production credit, mainly to large estates. TRDB provides long,medium and short-term agricultural credit, administers special funds on behalfof Government, and has been supported by the Bank Group as the major creditchannel for funds disbursed for direct use by farmers. A project to strengthenTRDB has recently been approved by IDA.
1/ For a description of the Village Management Technician Program, seethe staff Appraisal Report for the Fifth Education Project (Cr. 607-TA).
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Rural Transport Services
1.11 An adequate road transport system is needed to ensure the efficientmovement of crops to market centers and railheads, and to support timelydelivery of agricultural inputs to the farmers. Despite Government's effortsto upgrade the road network, only about 10 percent of the 33,400 km of roadsprovide reliable, all weather service. The remainder, particularly ruralroads, are, in general, little more than earth tracks impassable in the rainyseasons. In addition, the trucking fleet available for use by parastatals(either through ownership or hire) has been limited, thus making crop movementeven more difficult. Crop marketing has suffered from high transport costs,and deterioration of crops in villages with inadequate storage facilities.Poor transport facilities cause delays in payment to villages and oftendictate that villages receive sums large enough to handle crops over extendedperiods, leading to inadequate supervision and accounting of funds advancedfor purchases. Current Government action to address these problems isdirected mainly at the public sector, and includes the provision of stafftraining and equipment under several IDA-assisted projects, and the recentcreation of betterment and maintenance units' which are upgrading selectedsecondary roads in several regions. Assistance to the public trucking industryis being provided through the IDA-supported Trucking Industry Rehabilitationand Improvement Project (Cr. 743-TA). This has not proved sufficient toovercome transport bottlenecks in the critical areas of crop procurement andthe Government, under IDA assisted projects, has provided parastatals withadditional transport facilities.
E. Agricultural Marketing and Pricing
Marketing
1.12 In May 1976, the Primary Cooperative Societies and Unions, whichpreviously played an important role in agricultural marketing' were dissolvedand these functions transferred to other district, regional and nationalorganizations, of which the most prominent are the various parastatal bodies.At present, there are separate parastatal organizations for coffee, tea,sugar, livestock and dairy products, foodgrains, cashewnuts, tobacco, cotton,sisal and pyrethrum. In addition to providing marketing and processingservices, most parastatals have development responsibilities as well and theirgenerally ambitious expectations have placed severe strains on manpowerresources. Parastatal marketing is normally characterized by lack of competi-tion, high cost, poor services and slow payments to farmers. The Governmentis aware of these problems. Its Standing Committee on Parastatal Organization(SCOPO) is reviewing the structure and managerial performance of parastatels.There have been transfers of staff from over-manned parastatals. The Bankgroup is assisting in the reviews through its analysis of parastatals involvedin recent and proposed IDA credits; i.e. the Tea Adthority, the Cashew Authority,the Tobacco Authority, the Pyrethrum Board (proposed to be renamed the Pyrethrum
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Authority in future) and the National Milling Corporation. It also intends tostart a broader review of Tanzania's agricultural parastatals as a principalfocus of its sector work in FY80 and FY81.
Pricing
1.13 The control of producer, wholesale and retail prices of major cropsis an important tool of the Government's development policy. Producer pricesof all principal export crops, except sisal and coffee, are controlled as aremajor food crops except vegetables, fruits, fish and eggs. MOA is responsiblefor formulating pricing recommendations. Its Marketing Development Bureau(which receives assistance from UNDP and IDA) carries out annual reviews ofproducer prices for major crops, taking into account production costs and theneed for incentives to producers. MOA's recommendations are reviewed by theAgricultural Products Price Coordinating Committee, which consists of repre-sentatives from the major ministries and parastatals and then by the EconomicCommittee of the Cabinet, which makes the final decision on prices.
F. Previous Bank Group Assistance
1.14 Previous Bank Group assistance to the agricultural sector in Tanzaniahas included IDA credits totalling US$250.8 million and IBRD loans for US$37million for nineteen agricultural and three rural development projects. Agri-cultural projects include one each for sugar, maize, fisheries, forestry, cot-ton, and two each for agricultural credit,tea and cashewnuts, and three eachfor livestock and tobacco. Rural development Projects have been financed byIDA in the Kigoma and Tabora regions, and lately in Mwanza/Shinyanga region.Project Performance Audit Reports for two projects (the Flue-Cured TobaccoProject and the Smallholder Tea Development Project) have recently been pre-pared. In both cases, the economic rate of return is satisfactory. However,implementation experience highlighted the weaknesses of the parastatalsinvolved and the consequent need for considerable investment in institution-building. Lack of experienced staff with the necessary expertise both at themanagerial and technical level has hampered implementation. Targets to beachieved have tended to be overly ambitious within the time framework alloted.These lessons have been taken into account in the design of the Project bymaking it a Pilot Project to develop technical and management expertise forsubsequent full-scale projects.
II . THE COCONUT SUB-SECTOR
A. General
2.01 Coconut is an important crop in the entire coastal belt of Tanzaniaincluding the islands of Zanzibar, Pemba and Mafia. It is predominantly asmallholder crop and provides domestic subsistence requirements for fresh nuts
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and oil which are important items in the diet of the coastal people. Surplusnuts are processed into copra 1/ and sold to processing mills and the productis used in various vegetable oil industries in Tanzania.
2.02 To the smallholder, apart from its food value, coconuts are a sourceof cash income. It is the only cash crop, apart from cashewnut, which isplanted on an extensive scale along the coast. To the country it representsa source of raw material for local industries and, until about 1974, was alsoa source of substantial foreign exchange earnings from export of copra andcoconut oil (Table T-1).
2.03 In recent times, with improvements in transportation, the consump-tion pattern of fresh nuts has changed markedly and the fresh nut markethas extended to areas further inland beyond the traditional 30-50 km widthof the coastal coconut belt, resulting in an increased fresh nut consumption.Due to the increased demand for fresh nuts the market price of nuts has risenfrom Tsh. 0.5 to about Tsh. 2.0 per nut over the last five years while theprice of copra, as fixed by Government, is Tsh 2.50 per kg. The farmerreceives about Tsh 0.6-0.7 per nut at his farm. It takes about 6 nuts toproduce 1 kg of copra which means that there is no incentive to produce copra.At the same time, neglect of palms, poor management, old age of palms, andpest and disease problems have led to a reduction in nut production over theyears. Consequently, progressively lower quantities of copra have becomeavailable for export. Available statistics indicate a drop in copra exportsfrom 16,000 tons in 1969/70 to no exports in 1978/79 (Table T-1). Similarly,coconut oil exports have declined, and ceased from a high of 8,900 tons in1969/70. Eleven oil mills with a total crushing capacity of 20,000 tons,previously fully utilized, are now running at only about 20% capacity. Palmoil and other vegetable oil is being imported for local use to make up forreduced availability of coconut oil. Thus, the coconut industry is playing amarkedly declining role as a foreign exchange earner as well as a supplier ofdomestic needs.
B. Coconut Production
2.04 Reliable statistics on total area under coconuts are not available.Current Ministry of Agriculture estimates, however, indicate 90,000 hectaresof coconuts on the mainland, of which about 41,000 hectares are located in theTanga region in the north, 23,000 ha in the Coast region and the rest mainlyin the Mtwara and Lindi regions in the south. Zanzibar and Pemba are esti-mated to have 26,000 ha while Mafia Island has 8,500 ha of coconuts. Thus,according to available information coconut cultivation is spread over 90,000ha on the mainland and approximately 35,000 on the islands, making a totalof 125,000 ha for the Republic of Tanzania. About 95% of the total area issmallholder coconuts. Estimates indicate roughly 75% of the palms are 50years or more in age.
1/ Dried coconut meat before expression of oil.
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2.05 The main variety of coconuts cultivated is what is generallyknown as the East African Tall, and it comes into bearing in 6-7 years fromplanting but under adverse conditions this period can extend to 10-12 years.This variety continues to bear to about 70-80 years of age although there areindications that proper maintenance and adequate fertilizer application canextend this period. No reliable data on yields and production of smallholdingsis available but current overall yields are estimated to be about 20/nuts/palmper year. In the Lindi region, despite a 5-6 month long dry season' there isvisual evidence of vigorous palm growth and yields of 40-60 nuts/palm from8-10 year old palms under minimum maintenance conditions in some groves closeto villages in the coastal and valley bottom areas. There are some indicationsfrom experimental data collected in Tanga some years ago, that mean yields of80 nuts/palm are possible with improved management even with palms over 50years old.
2.06 The general level of management of the coconut smallholdings isextremely poor. Palm densities vary, ranging from 300 palms per hectare to70-80 palms per hectare with an average of 90 palms per hectare of which onlyabout 70 palms are bearing. 1/ Maintenance is generally restricted to annualburning of undergrowth, an operation which often damages and retards thegrowth of the palms. Intercropping with food crops like cassava and maize, isusually carried out in the early years of the growth of the palms in at leastpart of the holding but fertilizer is rarely used for the coconuts or theinter-crops. Farmers have shown some interest in infilling or new plantingsbut the seedlings supplied to them through Government programs have beenunselected ones.
2.07 The management of the few estates or plantations, except for theMafia Plantation, is also now of a very low level. As in the case of thesmallholdings it is a low input - low output system. The larger estates,previously owned and managed by European settlers, are now. State owned. Theformer German-owned Opel Estate in Bagamoyo, Coast Region, is now owned andmanaged by NAFCO. It covers approximately 1,600 ha and average yields areestimated at about 20-25 nuts per palm with a palm density of 60-70 palm/ha.Mafia Coconut Ltd. was incorporated in 1969 for the purpose of developing theprivate estates on Mafia Island. Mafia plantation which covers an area of2,800 ha is relatively better managed but due to financial constraints nofertilizer has been applied over the last several years resulting in a declinein production. Present yields are estimated at about 30-35 nuts/palm peryear. Results from application of fertilizer to large blocks of 60-80 yearold palms indicate the possibility of increasing nut production from 20 to 40nuts per palm over a 3-4 year period. The plantations on Zanzibar, which arenow Government owned, cover approximately 1,100 ha. The palms are old andyields are estimated at about 25 nuts/palm.
C. Diseases and Pests
2.08 In recent years an estimated 20-25% of palms particularly in theTanga, Pangani and Bagamoyo areas have been affected by 'disease'. Theincidence of disease was first reported in 1968 but no clear cut answer
1/ Normal recommended density for pure stands of Talls is 143 palms/ha.
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as to its nature has been given as yet. Steiner and Marshall, in 1976,carried out a survey in Tanga Region and described the symptoms of the'disease' which afflicted palms 8-40 years old. Laboratory examinationof tissue and root samples did not isolate specific fungi nor were abnormalnumbers of nematodes detected in the root samples, Further, electron micro-scopic examination of tissue samples did not show virus or mycoplasma 1/-likeorganisms, but in all samples Rickettsia 2/-like organisms were identified.Contrary to an earlier report, Steiner and Marshall also were of the opinionthat Bole rot was not present in the Tanga region. They also did not findany palms with symptoms resembling Lethal Yellowing or Kaincope diseases.
2.09 Some coconut specialists have expressed the opinion that since onlypalms growing under unfavorable conditions or suffering from old age or neglecttend to exhibit 'disease' symptoms, and since the 'disease' appears to haveappeared on the scene only in the last 5-10 years, the observed 'disease' maybe physiological rather than pathological or that the unfavorable growing con-ditions predispose the palms to disease. The presence of the problem, none-theless, is a matter of concern (paras 3.03-3.07).
2.10 The two main pests of coconut in Tanzania are the rhinoceros beetle(Oryctes Monoceros, Oliv.) and a coreid bug (Pseudotheraptus wavi, Brown).The rhino-beetle is seen to cause great damage to palms of all ages in all theareas except the islands where the incidence is low. The insect breeds indecaying organic material, such as dead coconut trunks, cattle manure, etc.and the practice of farm hygiene involving proper disposal of dead palm trunksand other organic debris is known to help reduce beetle infestation, but noserious attempts have been made in Tanzania to encourage these practices.Biological control of the beetle (0. rhinoceros) using the virus Baculovirusoryctes has been tried in W. Samoa, Fiji and Tonga with considerable success.Laboratory tests have shown 0. monocerus also to be susceptible to the virus.The coreid bug which causes premature nut fall is a serious pest mainly inZanzibar. Attempts in the past at developing economic control measures forthis insect have not been successful. There is need to develop controlmeasures in Tanzania, particularly for the rhino-beetle and to educatefarmers in these methods in order to reduce the damage to palms.
D. Research and Extension
2.11 Up to 1970, coconut research was carried out by the Ministry ofAgriculture mainly at the Chambezi Experimental Station in the Coast Region.However, no information or results from trials during this period have beenavailable or have been put into practice. Since 1970, research on coconut has
l/ Minute organisms of genus Mycoplasma that are intermediate betweenviruses and bacteria.
2/ Any of a family (Ricketsiaceae) of micro organisms that cause variousdiseases.
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been shifted to Mlingano Agriculture Research Institute (MARI) in the Tangaregion. The current research program is extremely limited and reflects thelow priority accorded, hitherto, to coconuts. Some agronomic trials are alsobeing carried out at Chambezi, but supervised from MARI. Two Tanzanianofficials are assigned duties on coconut research. Both officers, however,would benefit from further training and experience in coconut research.
2.12 The lack of emphasis on the part of the Ministry of Agricultureon coconuts in the past, is also reflected in the standard of extensionservice provided on this crop. While the Regional Authorities are responsiblefor extension services in the regions, the Ministry is responsible for provid-ing guidance and training to regional staff on the technical aspects. Therehas been no properly planned extension advice or program for improved coconutproduction. The meagre Regional attempts at coconut extension have mainlybeen limited to the establishment of nurseries for raising seedlings fordistribution to farmers. There are no reliable sources of good seed nuts, thestandard of nurseries is poor, except for those in Zanzibar, and the seedlingsdistributed have been unselected ones.
E. Marketing and Processing
2.13 The marketing and pricing of fresh coconuts is not subject to statecontrol but the marketing of copra is. Up to 1976 the Cooperatives acted asbuying agents for copra for supply to the oil mills for processing or to theGeneral Agricultural Products Export Corporation (GAPEX) for exporting.Since 1976, however, village councils, i.e. primary cooperatives, have actedas buying agents for copra within a village. On district and regional levelsthe copra is delivered to GAPEX or the National Milling Corporation (NMC). Ona national level only GAPEX conducts sales for exports of copra.
2.14 Copra price is fixed each year by Government as is the case withother scheduled crops. Producer prices were raised sharply in 1974/75 afterworld market prices for copra had increased from US$353/ton in 1973 (CIFEuropean Ports, in current terms) to US$662/ton in 1974. When world marketprices began falling below the 1974 level in 1975 - where they remained until1979, Government retained the producer price at Tsh 2.30/kg, which has beenabove the export parity price. Only in 1979, when world market prices re-covered at about the 1974 level (US$673/ton), did the producer price fallslightly below the export parity price, and consequently the Governmentincreased the price to Tsh 2.50/kg in 1980 to restore export parity.
2.15 Unlike the copra price, the producer price for fresh nuts is notfixed by Government but determined by the market. Prices show wide seasonalvariations, with highest prices realized from September to December whendemand is greatest. As in the case of copra, prices for fresh nuts alsoincreased sharply in 1974/75, and have continued to increase from year to yearwhile the copra price was held constant. The average fresh nut producer price
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for 1980 was about Tsh 0.70/nut while the price per nut in terms of copra wasabout Tsh 0.40 only. Though at this lower price level copra production isstill a profitable enterprise for the coastal farmer as compared to othercrop alternatives (Table T-2), it is obvious that his clear priority is tomaximize profits by sales of fresh nuts and this, ultimately, has contributedto the reduced supply of copra. For a large rehabilitation program in thefuture (para 6.03) Government would need to address the coconut/copra producerprice relationship in the context of an overall production strategy ofvarious coconut products (para 3.08).
F. Future Prospects
2.16 Current estimated production of nuts is about 175 million. Coprapurchase statistics for 1978/79 show an aggregate for the whole country ofabout 1,000 tons only, which is equivalent to about 6 million nuts. Thebalance of 169 million nuts can, therefore, be assumed to have been consumedfresh. Assuming that the fresh nut market continues to expand inland dueto improving transportation facilities, and on the basis of present estimatedper capita consumption of about 40 nuts annually in the coconut growing areasand adjacent regions, and with the population of these areas projected todouble by year 2000, consumption is estimated to absorb an additional 250million nuts by that year.
2.17 Tanzania's population is estimated to almost double by year 2000(to a total of 32 million). Based on a per capita consumption of 2.5 kgedible oils, total demand for the country is estimated at 80,000 tons. Ifonly one-third would be extracted from copra, it converts to about 56,000 tonscopra, equivalent to about 300 million nuts. These requirements for domesticconsumption of fresh nuts and oil alone would exceed the production potentialof a large scale second phase coconut rehabilitation project (para 6.03).
III. PROJECT CONCEPT AND SCOPE
A. Project Rationale
3.01 The continuing decline in copra production, that has turned Tanzaniainto a vegetable oil importing instead of an exporting country, an increasingdemand for fresh nuts and the desire of the Government to initiate moredevelopment programs to benefit people in the coastal regions of the country,has finally focussed attention on the coconut crop.
3.02 The extensive area under coconuts, strung out as it is along theentire coast line and islands of Tanzania, the mature age of a large proportionof the palms, many of which were planted prior to World War I, the considerableproduction of copra in previous years, and current evidence of yield potentials
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of 50-80 nuts/palms, all tend to indicate a generally satisfactory environmentfor the growth of this crop. The decline in production has largely beenbrought about by political and social changes affecting ownership of holdingsleading in many cases to neglect of the holdings, poor husbandry practices,old age of the palms, diseases and a lack, hitherto, of a concentrated Govern-ment effort to improve the coconut situation. The spontaneous replantingcarried out by some smallholders although on a very limited scale, but withminimum of assistance or direction by Government, tends to indicate intereston the part of smallholders in improving production.
3.03 A program or plan for the rehabilitation of the coconut industryobviously needs to incorporate a coordinated approach covering institutional,agronomic, marketing and processing aspects. A strong base from which acoconut development program can be launched needs to be built. However,before such a program can be formulated and subsequently implemented, it isessential to remove recognized constraints that would hinder such an under-taking. The main constraints are the following:
(a) lack of reliable information which could assist in theformulation of a technical package incorporating recom-mendations on variety and husbandry practices suited tolocal conditions.
(b) lack of socio-economic data pertaining to the farmersand their farms in the coconut growing areas.
(c) lack of adequate number of trained and experienced staffto undertake a coconut rehabilitation program.
(d) the absence of a local source of selected and improvedplanting material.
(e) inadequate information on the disease of unknown etiologyaffecting palms in certain areas.
3.04 The constraints listed above are all of significant importance andneed to be addressed, but the choice of a variety of coconut that would formthe core of a technical package and, therefore, of the entire rehabilitationprogram needs particular consideration. The East African Tall under Tanzanianconditions comes into bearing in about the 6-7th year and has a yield poten-tial of 60-80 nuts/palm under good smallholder management. Assuming a conver-sion factor of 6 nuts to 1 kg of copra and a planting density of 143 palm/ha,an estimated potential production of about 1.4-1.9 tons of copra per ha can beexpected. The use of this variety with improved husbandry practices would byitself be a significant improvement over existing conditions. However,research and field data from other coconut growing countries shows the poten-tial of selected hybrid varieties, e.g. PB121 from Ivory Coast, 1/ with
1/ PB121 is a cross between Malaysian Yellow Dwarf and West African Tall.
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early bearing characteristics (4-5th year) and yields of up to 180 nuts perpalm per year or 6 tons of copra from 15 year old palms under optimum manage-ment. Thus, before undertaking extensive rehabilitation of existing, unproduc-tive coconut areas, it is important that these hybrids (and other varieties)be tested under Tanzanian conditions for if found successful their introduc-tion into the rehabilitation program could have a significant impact on thecoconut industry.
3.05 The nature of the constraints listed above, the limited knowledge ofthe suitability of available improved technology for coconut cultivation inTanzania'and the limited institutional capacity to undertake a coconut reha-bilitation and development program dictates the need for a 'pilot' phasedesigned to resolve these constraints and pave the way for the formulation andimplementation of a coconut development project.
B. The Federal Republic of Germany Project
3.06 The Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) is providing about US$4.0million under its Technical Cooperative Program to finance a pilot phase ofa National Coconut Development Project. The FRG has been involved in anintegrated regional development project for the Tanga region (TIRDEP) whichincludes some work on coconuts. However, with the Government of Tanzania'sdecision to place greater emphasis on the coconut sub-sector, the FRG wasrequested to extend its assistance so as to include coconut areas outside ofthe Tanga region as well. After careful consideration the FRG decidedthat a pilot phase to tackle some of the constraints listed earlier (para 3.03)was advisable.
3.07 Under an agreement concluded between GOT and FRG in April 1979, fiveexpatriate specialists (plant pathologist, entomologist, plant breeder,agronomist/extension specialist and an economist/team leader) are being pro-vided initially for a 3-year period. They would focus attention on thefollowing:
(a) Diseases and Pests
(i) studies of the diseases affecting coconuts in Tanzaniawith a view to identifying the causal agents and deve-loping control measures.
(ii) ascertaining the extent of spread of diseases and mapp-ing disease free areas for possible subsequent development.
(iii) development of control measures for the Rhino beetle andcoreid bug including biological control measures.
The disease and pest studies are expected to be based etthe Mlingano Agricultural Research Institute (MARI). FRGfunds will be used to employ two expatriate specialistsand to strengthen laboratory facilities at the Instituteto cope with the proposed disease and pest studies.
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(b) Plant Breeding
A breeding program was originally planned to study East AfricanTalls, and existing Malaysian Dwarfs and their combinations onMafia Island with a view to developing improved varieties and theestablishment of a seed multiplication unit. However, earlierestimates of the number of Dwarf palms available on Mafia Islandfor the breeding program, have proven to be over-estimates. Asan interim measure, therefore, under arrangements with IRHO, pollenof the East African Tall will be flown to the Port Bouet Stationin the Ivory Coast, and the resulting hybrid seed nuts broughtback to Tanzania for testing. At the same time a 50 ha block ofDwarfs 1/ would be established in Tanzania for the breeding programand eventual use as a seed multiplication unit. The breedingprogram will be carried out on Mafia Island whereby Mafia CoconutLimited provides the field management but the program is tech-nically supervised by the expatriate Plant Breeder who would bebased on the plantation.
(c) Extension and Training
The Extension specialist recruited under the Project wouldassist in drawing up a training program and in traininglocal extension staff in the regions on all aspects of coconuthusbandry and provide extension aids and set up demonstrationplots. In addition the FRG project will provide for trainingoverseas of up to six Tanzanian staff in the fields of plantprotection, plant breeding, agricultural extension and agricul-tural planning. These staff are expected to take over and con-tinue the work initiated by expatriate staff in these fields.
3.08 The FRG project would also assist the GOT in the preparation of aCoconut Master Plan which is expected to provide a strategy and guidelinesfor the rehabilitation of the Tanzania Coconut Industry. Institutionalrequirements, marketing and price policies for coconuts and copra, farmsurveys and related studies would be carried out to assist in the preparationof the Plan.
3.09 The Project is being implemented by the German Agency for TechnicalCooperation (GTZ) on behalf of the FRG.
C. The Project Area
3.10 The Project would cover all the coastal coconut growing areas inthe Tanga, Dar es Salaam, Coast, Mtwara and Lindi regions of mainland Tanzaniaand the island of Zanzibar.
1/ Malaysian, Cameroon, Guinea Equatorial, Sri Lanka Dwarfs.
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3.11 The topography of the coconut growing areas is generally flat roundulating with some areas subject to waterlogging. The soils vary fromsand through silty-sand to silty-clay-sand or are laterized residual soilsof generally considerable depth. There are some areas with shallow soilover reef limestones used often for sisal cultivation. In Zanzibar, coconutsare mainly grown in the western part of the island where the soils are richerand deeper than in the eastern or southern parts.
3.12 Rainfall varies from region to region (Table T-3). In the Tangaregion the mean annual rainfall is about 1,300 mm; dropping to 1,000 mm inthe Bagamoyo area of the Coast region and to only 800-900 mm further southin the Lindi region. On the islands of Zanzibar and Pemba the rainfallis around 1,400 mm while Mafia island receives a substantially higher rainfallaveraging 1,800 mm. The rainfall distribution pattern also varies, with theTanga region in the north showing a bimodal pattern with a short dry season inJanuary and February and a much longer dry season from June through October.In the Mtwara and Lindi regions in the south, the distribution pattern isunimodal with a considerably longer dry season (6-7 months) from May throughNovember. During the dry season some rainfall occurs but the longer the dryseason, the greater the possibility of periods as much as 90 days withouteffective rainfall (less than 3 mm). The stress due to moisture deficiency,increasas with the length of the dry season and, therefore, is liable to begreatest in the south. It is probable that in the Mtwara/Lindi area, inparticular, coconuts flourish largely because the sites selected by farmersfor growing coconuts are invariably along the Coast and in river valleyswhere there is a high and perennial water table.
IV. THE PROJECT
A. General Description
4.01 The proposed Pilot Project would, over a five-year period, con-tribute towards the development of a strong base from which future programsfor rehabilitating the coconut industry in Tanzania could be undertaken. Itwould serve as a preparatory phase and provide guidance for the planning andimplementation of future large scale coconut projects. Specifically, theProject would assist in the formulation of a technical package for improvedproduction of coconuts in Tanzania as well as train local staff to carry outprojects related to the rehabilitation of the coconut industry. At all stagesthe Project was viewed as a part of the overall attempt by GOT to tackle theconstraints limiting coconut production and its attempts to rehabilitate thecoconut industry and, therefore, close attention was also paid to the FRGproject to ensure that the two projects are complementary to one another. TheFRG project covers disease and pest control studies, development of a breedingprogram and establishment of a seed multiplication unit, training of staff,and the formulation of a Coconut Master Plan.
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4.02 The Project would comprise the following components:
(a) varietal trials on three sites on mainland Tanzania andon one site on Zanzibar, covering a total of about 200 ha;
(b) improved maintenance and rehabilitation trials on a totalof about 1,000 ha on the Chambezi Experimental Station andZegereni State Farm on the mainland and on the GovernmentPlantations in Zanzibar;
(c) a 100 ha seed garden for the production of hybrid seed nuts;
(d) soil and hydrological surveys to assist in the selectionof varietal trial sites, the seed garden site, and the pre-paration of a coconut land suitability map to guide futuredevelopments;
(e) the services of an internationally-recruited coconut agro-nomist and a coconut plantation manager to carry out thevarietal and rehabilitation trials;
(f) training of Tanzanian staff in coconut husbandry, rehabi-litation methods and techniques;
(g) short-term consultants and overseas laboratory services;
(h) the preparation of a feasibility study for the next phaseof the coconut development program;
(i) contracting a consultant organization to manage andimplement the Project.
B. Detailed Features
Varietal Trials
4.03 This component would consist of a set of trials located at aselected site in each of the regions of Tanga, Coast, and Mtwara-Lindi onthe mainland and Zanzibar. This would provide coverage of the major rainfalldistribution patterns of the coconut belt, as well as the high diseaseincidence areas. An area of about 50 ha would be carefully selected in eachof the four areas taking into consideration soil suitability, and accesibility.Consultants would be engaged to assist in the selection of these sites (para4.18). In addition, the Project would also provide for tractors, equipment,vehicles, spares, seednuts, a small office, store cum garage and operational
costs for carrying out the trials at each site.
4.04 The set of trials would consist of (i) a comparative study of theperformance of a number of varieties, i.e. a varietal trial, (ii) an evalua-tion of the hybrid PB121; and (iii) a determination of the nutrient require-ments of PB121. The objective of the varietal trial would be to select the
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most promising variety of coconut for each of the regions. The basic designof the trial at each of the sites would be the same and would include a numberof imported hybrids including PB121, and Tall varieties, e.g. W. African,Rennel, Tahiti as well as the local E.A. Tall variety. It is anticipated thatabout 30 varieties would be included in the trial but the final number andvarieties to be included would be dependent on availability of seed nuts.Data would be collected on growth, precocity, production and disease and pestresistance.
4.05 The development of the hybrid- PB121, by IRHO in the Ivory Coastis a fairly recent phenomenon. The oldest plantings are about 15 years old.While it has the potential for high production (para 3.04) and has so farperformed well in several countries, it would be essential to test it underTanzanian conditions in order to determine the effect of local environmentalfactors on its production potential. While the varietal trials would includeand compare PB121 and other promising varieties, an early evaluation ofthis hybrid by itself, in view of its performance elsewhere, when plantedand managed according to a high and a low input system, i.e. estate andsmallholder management conditions, would be advantageous in giving indicationsas to its suitability for planting under similar conditions. A 5 ha block ofPB121 would be established of each of the three sites on the mainland and oneon Zanzibar and the growth and production of the palms evaluated under a goodmanagement system. In addition seedlings of PB121 would also be distributed toselected farmers to determine the performance of this hybrid under smallholderconditions. A total of about 10 farmers adjacent to each of the varietaltrial sites would be selected and given 20 seedlings each. The farmers wouldalso receive extension advice and fertilizer for the palms. A total of about40 farmers would therefore be involved in these trials.
4.06 A trial to determine the nutrient requirements of PB121 would alsobe established at the sites proposed for the performance or evaluation trial.Information from this trial would provide guidance for drawing up fertilizerrecommendations. To assist in monitoring the nutrient levels and determiningthe nutrient needs of the palms, provision would be made for foliar analysisservices (para 4.26).
4.07 The importation of nuts for the trials would be from countries whichare known to be free from diseases. This would exclude in particular thesupply of nuts from the west-coast of India (Kerala Wilt), certain W. Africancountries (Kaincope disease), certain areas of the Philippines (Cadang-cadang),and Jamaica (Lethal yellow). lmportation and quarantine regulations would betaken into account when importing seed nuts. Tanzanian Plant Quarantineofficials would visit the country supplying seed nuts to satisfy themselvesthat the plantations supplying the seed nuts are disease free.
4.08 Nurseries to raise seedlings to be used in the trials would beestablished at each of the four sites. The seednuts would be germinatedin germination beds to facilitate selection of seedlings and transferred toa polybag nursery. Ten-month old selected .seedlings would be used for fieldplanting which would be carried out at the beginning of the wet season.
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4.09 Nurseries at the three mainland sites would also be used to raise alimited number of seedlings for distribution to farmers largely for infilling.This, however would only be done in the 3rd year after the needs of thevarietal trials have been satisfied. Seedlings of the East African Tall,raised and selected according to good nursery management and selection criteria,would be distributed through the Regional Agricultural Development Office,primarily to farmers who would be covered by the extension training componentof the FRG project to ensure that improved husbandry practices are followed.This would enable the concept of selected seedlings and improved husbandrypractices to be introduced to farmers. Feedback to the Extension agronomistwould serve a useful purpose in the design of future programs. Approximately33,000 seedlings per year (approximately 230 ha) would be distributed fromeach of the three nurseries. The nursery in Zanzibar would not raise seedlingsfor distribution to farmers as the present density of palms is generally toohigh, and therefore, unlike the mainland regions, do not require infilling.
Improved Maintenance and Rehabilitation Trials
4.10 The objective of these trials which are essentially large scaleobservations, would be to test known improved methods and techniques ofmaintenance and rehabilitation of coconuts with a view to adopting or adapt-ing them for local conditions. Results from these trials would enable thedevelopment of a general technical package for use in a rehabilitationprogram. Large blocks of existing coconuts located in Chambezi ExperimentalStation, Zegereni State Farm on the mainland, and Government plantations inZanzibar would be used for this purpose. Provision would be made for thenecessary machinery and equipment, fertilizer and other maintenance costsrequired to carry out these trials. In Zanzibar, Kilimo would make availableto the Project eight tractors from its existing fleet of tractors. Assurancesto this effect were obtained during negotiations.
4.11 Both the Chambezi Station and the Zegereni Farm are located inthe Coast region. The Chambezi Station belongs to the Ministry of Agricul-ture and covers approximately 400 ha of which a block of about 100 ha ofmature palms (30-50 years old) would be used for the proposed trials. TheZegereni Farm is managed by the Regional Agricultural Development Officeand is approximately 4,000 ha in area, of which only about 200 ha are pre-sently under coconuts. An area of about 80 ha of newly planted and 6-10 yearold palms would be set aside for trial purposes. In Zanzibar, eight Govern-ment plantations which cover approximately 950 ha, with palms about 50-80years old, would be utilized to carry out the management and rehabilitationtrials.
4.12 The proposed trials would include (i) a comparison of fertilizerrates, time of application and methods of placement on young and mature palms,(ii) comparison of covers; methods and techniques of establishment and mainte-nance of covers, (iii) weed control methods, (iv) methods and techniques ofreplanting and thinning of dense stands (including disposal of discardedpalm trunks), determination of optimum palm densities; (v) intercropping;(vi) comparison of nursery methods and techniques; (vii) comparison of disease
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and pest control methods. These large scale trials would also provide costand production data which would facilitate the development of recommendationsboth for smallholders and estates. Each of the trial sites would also serveas a training ground for local staff, both on managerial as well as crophusbandry aspects.
Seed Garden
4.13 To develop and implement a sizeable coconut rehabilitation programin the coming years as is envisaged in Tanzania, steps need to be taken toestablish a local source of improved high yielding planting material. Itwould be extremely expensive and impractical to base a large scale rehabilita-tion program on wholly imported material. The final decision as to the variety/ies of coconut that would be recommended for large scale dissemination woulddepend on the results of the variety trials proposed under this project. Butperformance data in a number of coconut growing countries tend to indicate astrbng possibility that a hybrid like the PB121, which has the Malaysian Dwarfas one of the parents, could also be one of the main varieties suited forTanzania. Since the palms of the Dwarf variety take 3-4 years to startflowering and therefore, available for production of hybrid seed nuts, earlyplanting of the dwarfs would be highly desirable.
4.14 A 100 ha seed garden 1/ would be established on Mafia Island whereclimatic conditions are amongst the most favorable. Of the 100 ha, 80 hawould be planted with Malaysian yellow and red Dwarfs,Cameroon red, GuineaEquatorial green.and Sri Lanka green Dwarfs, (50:10:12:5:3 ha.), using importedseed nuts. These mother palms would be planted in a homogenous block isolated(500 m) from other coconut palms. The male parents (20 ha) would be of theE. African, W. African, Rennel and Tahiti Tall varieties and once the parenthas been selected, hybrids would be produced using assisted pollination. TheTalls will only come into flower and produce pollen in gradually increasingquantities from about the 6th year. Additional pollen requirements could,initially, be imported, so as not to delay production of hybrids if required.
4.15 It is estimated that 1 ha of Dwarf mother palms would produceenough hybrid seed nuts to plant about 12 ha in year 5 but increasing to 48 haat maturity, i.e. 10 years of age. 80 ha would, therefore, enable 3,800 ha ofhybrids to be planted each year if so required, from the 10th year of estab-lishing the seed garden. However, if only the Malaysian Yellow Dwarfs were tobe finally used then the 50 ha under this variety would allow about 2,400 haof hybrids to be planted each year. 2/
1/ To supplement the 50 ha unit proposed under the FRG project (para.3.07(b)).
2/ Combined with the 30 ha of Malaysian Yellow under the FRG project thetotal area plantable would be 3,800 ha.
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Hybrid Seed Nut Production and AreaPlantable from 80 ha. Mother Palms
No. of Seed NutsDwarfs Seed Nuts Per Total After Plantable RatioPollinated Harvested Palm Produced Selection 2/ Area 3/ Dwarfs:Hyb.(Yr) 1/ (Yr) ( 000) ( 000) (Ha) (Ha)
1/ Yr. 0 is year of planting. Density 180 palms/ha (Dwarfs).
2/ Assumes 10% rejection of nuts.
3/ Assumes 267 nuts required per ha field planted. Planting density(Hybrids) 160 palms/ha plus 5% for infillings. Culling % - 30% inbeds, 10% in polybags.
4.16 The Project would provide for importation of seed nuts of Dwarfvarieties and their establishment and maintenance in the seed garden. Themanagement, and supervision of the garden would be done by the Plant Breederengaged under the FRG project to initiate a breeding program and a seedmultiplication unit (para. 3.07b). GOT would ensure that the land requiredfor the establishment of the seed garden would be available and this would bea condition of disbursement against the seed garden component.
Soil Survey
4.17 A detailed soils map of the total coconut growing areas is presentlynot available. Ad hoc hydrological studies have recently been carried out inrelation to specific Water Master Plan studies in the Tanga, Coast, Mtwara andLindi Regions. A comprehensive knowledge of the potential of the coconutareas is essential to guide both the proposed pilot project as well as futureprojects. The Project would provide funds for engaging consultants to under-take a soil and hydrological survey of the coconut areas with a view to (a)selecting four sites of about 50 ha each, suitable for the varietal trials anda site for the proposed 100 ha seed garden, and (b) preparing a land suitabil-ity map for coconuts which would form the basis for selection of areas forfuture coconut rehabilitation projects.
4.18 Within the four regions earmarked for the varietal trials, i.e.Tanga, Coast, Mtwara/Lindi, Zanzibar, the Ministry of Agriculture would, with
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the assistance of the consultants, select potential areas for the varietaltrial sites. The consultants would then, through field surveys, determineexact locations of the sites. The selection of the sites would be based onthe following main criteria:
(i) the site would be as closely representative as possiblein terms of soils and topography, of the main coconutgrowing areas in the region in which it is located.
(ii) the site would be accessible during all times of the yearand not subject to waterlogging or flooding for prolongedperiods of time. It does not necessarily have to be sitedon a main road but would as far as practicable, be locatednear a town for ease of stationing staff.
(iii) the site would be such that a fairly homogenous, contiguous,and relatively flat 50 ha. of land with soil suitable forcultivation of coconuts would be available.
4.19 In order to save time, selection of the trial sites would be doneprior to Project start-up. Retroactive financing for engaging the consultantsis provided (para 4.33). The selection of the trial sites, in consultationwith IDA, is a condition of Project effectiveness.
4.20 The preparation of the land suitability map for coconuts would bedone over a longer period but in time for the information to be availablefor the preparation of the Coconut Master Plan (para. 3.08). Informationon soils, hydrology, climate, present land use, agronomic requirements ofthe coconut palm, local experience etc. would contribute towards the prepa-ration of the map which would indicate area potential, and suitability forcoconuts.
Technical Assistance
4.21 An experienced Coconut agronomist and a Plantation Manager wouldbe recruited internationally for the full Project period. The Agronomistwould have overall responsibility for planning and implementing the Varietaltrials as well as assist the Plantation Manager in the planning of the Main-tenance and Rehabilitation trials and interpretation of results. The Planta-tion Manager would be responsible for the implementation of the Maintenanceand Rehabilitation trials. Both the Agronomist and the Plantation Managerwould also be responsible for on-the-job training, of Tanzanian agronomistsand Assistant plantation managers assigned to the Project.
4.22 The Coconut agronomist would have four Tanzanian agricultural staff(minimum Diploma level) who would assist in the implementation of the trialprogram. The local staff would be stationed in the vicinity of the trialsites and provide the day-to-day supervision of the trials.
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4.23 The Plantation Manager would be assisted by four local staff(minimum Diploma level) in Zanzibar and the existing station managers atthe Chembezi Station and the Zegereni State Farm.
4.24 Assurances were obtained that the expatriate staff to beappointed would have qualifications, experience, and terms and conditionsof employment satisfactory to IDA. The appointment of the Coconut Agronomistto the Project is a condition of Project effectiveness. The appointment ofthe Plantation Manager is a condition of disbursement for the Improvedmaintenance and Rehabilitation Trials Component of the Project.
Training
4.25 The Project would provide for the practical training of Tanzanianstaff in coconut husbandry, replanting and rehabilitation methods and planta-tion management. This would include aspects related to seednut and seedlingselection, nursery methods and techniques, field preparation and planting,fertilizers, weeding, pest and disease control, collection and compilation ofdata. In addition to the on-the-job training (para 4.21) the Project wouldalso provide for training in coconut growing countries, e.g. Ivory Coast,Sri Lanka, Malaysia, with a view to creating a core of local staff with someexperience and knowledge of coconut rehabilitation programs.
Short-Term Consultants and Laboratory Services
4.26 It is envisaged that additional expertise would be needed from timeto time to provide guidance or second opinions on specific aspects particu-larly technical aspects, e.g. soil fertility, plant nutrition, plant diseases.Six man-months of short-term consultancies would, therefore, be financed underthe Project. Assurances were obtained that the consultants to be employedwould have terms of reference, qualifications, experience, and terms andconditions of employment satisfactory to IDA. Also, to strengthen the cap-ability of the Project staff to effectively carry out the various studies andtrials and to assist them in monitoring and evaluating crop responses, provi-sion would be made for obtaining overseas laboratory services, e.g., forfoliar analysis, to supplement laboratory facilities and services availablewithin the country.
Feasibility Study for Phase II
4.27 Funds would be provided to enable the GOT to engage consultants toassist in the preparation of a feasibility study for the next phase of theCoconut Program as identified in the proposed Coconut Master Plan (3.08).Assurances were obtained at negotiations that the consultants to be employedwould have terms of reference, qualifications, experience, and terms andconditions of employment satisfactory to IDA.
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Project Management and Implementation Consultants
4.28 In view of the shortage of local staff with the necessary technicalexpertise and experience to undertake the Pilot Project on a full time basis,expatriate technical assistance would be needed to assist GOT in the manage-ment and implementation of the Project. Also to ensure maximum cooperationand coordination of activities of the two complementary projects, i.e. FRGand IDA funded projects, it would be advantageous that the two projects bemanaged and implemented by the same management team. GOT has formallyrequested GTZ, which is implementing the FRG Project, to undertake the execu-tion of proposed Pilot Project. GTZ has indicated strong interest in thisproposal. Completion in a form satisfactory to IDA, of an agreement betweenGOT and GTZ for the management and implementation of the Project, is acondition of Project effectiveness.
C. Project Costs
4.29 The total costs of the Project would be Tsh 70.9 million (US$8.5million), of which Tsh 53.1 million (US$6.4 million) (75 percent) representsthe foreign exchange costs. The Project costs do not include any local taxesand duties. 1/ The phasing of Project costs are summarized in Table T-5 andcosts for each of the components are given in Table T-5a through T-5k. Projectcosts are summarized below:
1/ The Project would be exempted from identifiable taxes and duties.
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Foreign BaseLocal Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Exchange Cost
4.30 Project costs have been estimated on the basis of prices prevailingin March, 1980. Physical contingencies of 10 percent have been included onall costs except manpower. Price contingencies on imported vehicles andequipment, fertilizer and internationally recruited staff and consultantshave been included at annual rates of 10.5% in 1980/81, 9% in 1981/82, 8%in 1982/83 and 7% thereafter. For local equipment, staff costs and otherexpenditures price contingencies have been included at annual rates of 11%in 1980/81, 10% in 1981/82 and 9% thereafter. For civil works, higher pricecontingencies have been included at annual rate of 12% in 1980/81, reflectingthe pressure on construction industry capacity. Price contingencies total30% of project base line costs.
4.31 Included in the costs is provision for two internationally recruitedstaff (para 4.21) who would provide a total of 120 man-months of service tothe Project at an estimated total cost of Tsh 8.0 million (US$964,000). Theaverage cost per man-month (salary, travel, subsistence) is estimated atTsh 67,000 (US$8,000).
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4.32 In addition, Project costs also provide for a total of 12 man-monthsof short-term consultancies (paras 4.26, 4.27) at an estimated total cost ofTsh 1.2 million (US$145,000). The average cost per man-month (salary, fee,travel, subsistence) is estimated at Tsh 100,000 (US$12,000).
4.33 Provision has been made for consultants to be engaged to assist theGOT identify and select suitable sites for the varietal trials and the seedgarden (para 4.17). To get the Project to an early start, it is importantthat these sites be selected early. Retroactive financing of Tsh 1,245,000(US$150,000) is therefore provided to enable this task to be completedbefore Project start-up. Further, an advance of US$288,000 was granted inMay, 1980 to GOT through the Project Preparation Facility (PPF) for (a) pro-curement of seednuts for the seed garden, (b) appointment of the coconut-agronomist, (c) procurement of a vehicle for the agronomist, and (d) trainingof local agronomists in coconut husbandry.
4.34 An estimated Project management fee for the Agency (GTZ) has 41so beenprovi,ded for in the Project costs. The fee is based on the following: 9% ofactual costs for procurement of equipment, machinery and imported seednuts(i,n calculating the fee for the seednuts only the cost of the seednuts, excludingfreight charges, would be taken into account), and 15% of the amounts payabletp expatriate staff and consultants. GTZ Headquarters costs and office costsin the field have also been provided for.
D. Financing
4.35 The financing of Project costs would be as follows:
US$ million %
IDA 6.8 80
Government of Tanzania 1.7 20
8.5 100
4.36 The proposed IDA credit of SDR 5.2 million (US$6.8 million) wouldbe on standard terms to the Government of Tanzania and would cover all theforeign exchange costs of the Project (US$6.4 million) and 19% of localcosts, or about 80% of total Project costs. Government of Tanzania wouldfinance the remaining US$1.7 million.
4.37 Credit funds to cover capital expenditures (Tsh 13.6 million includ-ing contingencies) would be channeled by IDA to GTZ (agency responsible forimplementation of the Pilot Project (para 5.01) against suppliers invoices andbills for services performed. GTZ's operating costs and fee (Tsh 6.7 millionincluding contingencies) would be reimbursed from IDA credit funds every sixmonths. Costs of engaging expatriate staff, consultants and use of overseas
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laboratory services (Tsh 17.5 million) would be channeled by IDA to GTZ everymonth against bills for services rendered. The remainder of the credit fundsand GOT contributions (Tsh 32.8 million) would be channeled by IDA and GOT toGTZ against quarterly statements of expenditure. These terms and conditionsof this financing plan were agreed at negotiations.
V. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION
A. Management
5.01 The Ministry of Agriculture (Kilimo) would be responsible for theProject. To assist Kilimo in implementation of the Project, and in view ofof the fact that there is need for close cooperation and coordination of thetwo Projects, i.e. FRG and IDA funded projects, GTZ would be contracted toimplement the Project. GTZ would be responsible for management, execution,recruitment, procurement and reporting as related to the Project. The GTZProject Team Leader would also assume the overall role of Project Managerand would report directly to the Director, Crop Production, Kilimo (Chart C-1).
5.02 The Project Manager would be assisted in the detailed planning andexecution of the plans by the internationally recruited Coconut Agronomistand Plantation Manager (para 4.21). He would, as part of his activities alsodraw up a training program for the local staff and ensure its implementation.Separate Project accounts would be maintained and audited accounts submittedto IDA (para 5.08).
5.03 The implementation of the Project is scheduled as shown in Chart C-2.
B. Procurement
5.04 Procurement under the project would be in accordance with Bank/IDAguidelines, specifically:
(a) orders for new vehicles and spare parts and tractors, attach-ments and spare parts (US$0.7 million) would be bulked as faras practicable and orders of US$100,000 and above would beprocured through international competitive bidding (ICB) fromsuppliers who maintain (or agree to maintain) in Tanzania ade-quate after-sales service and inventory of spare parts;
(b) orders for vehicles, tractors, and equipment below US$100,000would be procured in accordance with existing local competitivebidding procedures which are satisfactory; however, these orderswould not exceed US$100,000 in aggregate;
(c) orders for farm tools (US$14,000), office equipment (US$27,000),pump sets and barbed wire fencing (US$25,000) would be bulked tothe maximum extent possible, and would be procured on the basisof local competitive bidding procedures which are satisfactory;
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(d) contracts for the construction of office, store and garageat each of the varietal trial sites (US$128,000) would betoo small and scattered to attract international interest.Procurement would, therefore, be by contracts awardedfollowing local competitive bidding procedures;
(e) different varieties of coconuts for the varietal trialsand seed garden (US$0.7 million including air freight)can only be procured either from Ivory Coast or from 2-3countries in Asia. Procurement would, therefore, be onthe basis of the availability of varieties required,price and freight cost; seed nuts of the local variety(US$0.3 million) would be procured from individualfarmers using local procedures which are satisfactory.
(f) Fertilizer (US$0.9 million) would be procured using localprocedures which are satisfactory.
5.05 Draft tender documents for all contracts expected to cost in excessof US$100,000 would be submitted to IDA for approval before bid invitationsare issued, and bid analysis and recommendations for award would be submittedto IDA for comment before contracts would be awarded. In the evaluation ofbids for (a) above, bonafide domestic manufacturers would be accorded apreference of 15 percent or the existing rate of duty, whichever is lower.Assurances were obtained during negotiations that the procurement proceduresoutlined above would be followed.
C. Disbursement
5.06 Disbursement of funds from the Credit would be on the followingbasis:
(a) 100% of foreign and 85% of local costs of vehicles, tractorsand attachment and spare parts [SDR 0.5 million (US$0.7 mil-lion)].
(b) 100% of foreign costs of imported seed nuts required forthe varietal trials and seed garden [SDR 0.5 million(US$0.7 million)].
(c) 95% of the costs of construction of office, store andgarage at each of the varietal trial sites, office equip-ment, pump sets and wells, barbed wire and miscellaneoustools ISDR 0.2 million (US$0.2 million)].
(d) 100% of the costs of technical assistance, consultants'services and training [SDR 2.2 million (US$2.9 million)].
(e) 100% of foreign and 85% of local costs of fertilizers
[SDR 0.7 million (US$0.9 million)].
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(f) 100% of the costs of locally procured seed nuts for thenurseries [SDR 0.2 million (US$0.3 million)].
(g) an unallocated amount of SDR 0.9 million (US$1.2 million)representing contingencies on items (a) to (f), and trans-ferrable to them as required.
5.07 All disbursements under (a), (b), (c) (d) and (e) would be fullydocumented. Disbursement against (f) would be on the basis of statementsof expenditure signed by the Project Manager. Funds remaining in the Creditat Project completion would be cancelled, unless otherwise agreed by IDA.A schedule showing the estimated pattern of disbursements under the Projectis at Table T-4.
D. Accounts and Audit
5.08 Separate accounts relating to expenditures under the Project wouldbe kept by GTZ. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that theseaccounts would be audited by independent auditors acceptable to IDA, and thatsuch audited accounts would be submitted to GOT and IDA within six months ofthe end of each financial year. The auditors would specifically review andcomment on the procedures used for control of disbursement against statementsof expenditure.
E. Reporting, Monitoring and Evaluation
5.09 Detailed quarterly reports of physical implementation and the useof funds together with technical progress and evaluation reports (para 5.10)would be submitted by the Project Manager to Kilimo and to IDA. Particularattention would be paid in these reports to:
(a) the progress of the coconut trials component, in terms of theestablishment of the trials, nurseries, and seed garden, pro-curement of imported and local coconuts, construction ofoffices, stores and garages, procurement of tractors andvehicles, etc.;
(b) the progress of the survey component, in terms of engagementof consultants and preparation of reports and maps;
(c) the progress in allocating staff to various components ofthe project;
(d) training local staff.
5.10 During the course of implementation the Project Manager, wouldcoordinate the compilation of the technical progress and evaluation reportsof the Coconut Agronomist, the Plantation Manager and the Plant Breeder (FRGfunded but responsible for the seed garden component). These reports wouldbe incorporated in the Quarterly Progress reports.
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5.11 An integral part of improving the management and implementationpractices of the Project would be the monitoring and evaluation activities.PPMB would monitor and evaluate all Project activities and at the end ofeach year submit to Kilimo and IDA a report of its findings. PPMB wouldalso assist in the preparation of the feasibility study (para. 4.27) for thenext phase of the Coconut Program.
5.12 Within six months of the completion of disbursements, Kilimo, togetherwith GTZ, would prepare and submit to IDA a Project Completion Report, analyzingthe implementation of the Project and its impact in relation to its objectives.Assurances to this effect were obtained during negotiations.
VI. PROJECT BENEFITS
6.01 The proposed Project would constitute the preparation stage in a longterm development program of major importance to the population in the coastalregions of mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar in particular, and to the country asa whole in general. The principal objective is to provide a sound basis forthe rational development of the coconut industry. The individual componentsof the Project are expected to result in (a) the development of an integratedtechnical package which could subsequently be applied to the extensive coconutareas and arrest and reverse the decline in coconut production; (b) the devel-opment of information related to suitability of areas for coconut cultivationwhich would be invaluable in planning for subsequent rehabilitation and devel-opment phases; and (c) the development of a core of Tanzanian personnel withexperience and expertise in coconut husbandry and rehabilitation techniques.The Project also provides, within the scope of these activities, opportunityto test and develop approaches to farmer participation.
6.02 The full impact of the proposed Project would only be felt when theresearch results are applied on an extensive basis in subsequent phases. Thebenefits of the Project cannot, therefore, be quantified since the activitiesincluded are essentially technology development activities. There is somerisk of delays in implementation since seed nuts for the varietal trials haveto be obtained from other coconut growing countries and this involves coordi-nation of seed nut production and shipment of the nuts. The prospects forsuccessful implementation of the Project components are favorable, particu-larly since the management and implementation of the Project would be con-tracted out to the German Technical Cooperation Agency (GTZ).
6.03 The development of a technical package needed to rehabilitateTanzania-s coconut industry and its impact on supply from future developmentphases could be expected some time after 1985 when improved techniquesapplied to the existing 125,000 ha of coconuts would result in estimatedproduction increases of about 90-100 million nuts annually. Increased pro-duction from new plantings could only be expected after year 1990. Assumingthat during a first 5-year phase of a production project 5,000 ha would beplanted with hybrids, they are estimated to produce about 88 million nutsannually.
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VII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS
7.01 During negotiations, assurances were obtained that:
(a) GOT would ensure that eight tractors are allocated to theProject in Zanzibar (para 4.10);
(b) the expatriate staff to be appointed shall have qualifications,experience, and terms and conditions of employment satisfactoryto IDA (para 4.24);
(c) Consultants employed under the Project would have qualifica-tions, experience and terms of reference and conditions ofemployment satisfactory to IDA (paras 4.26,4.27);
(d) the financing of Project costs, procurement, and reportingprocedures, would be followed as outlined (paras 4.35-4.37;5.04-5.05; 5.09-5.11);
(e) within six months of the completion of disbursements Kilimotogether with GTZ, would prepare and submit to IDA a ProjectCompletion Report (para 5.12);
(f) separate accounts relating to Project expenditures would bekept by GTZ, on behalf of Kilimo, audited by independentauditors acceptable to IDA and submitted to IDA within sixmonths of the end of each financial year (para 5.08).
7.02 Conditions of Credit Effectiveness:
(a) selection, in consultation with IDA, of sites for the varietaltrials and the seed garden (para 4.19);
(b) appointment of the internationally recruited CoconutAgronomist.
(c) appointment of management consultants for the implementationof the project (para 4.28).
7.03 Conditions of Disbursement:
(a) It would be a condition of disbursement against the fundsfor the seed garden that land suitable for the purposeis made available (para 4.16);
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(b) it would be a condition of disbursement against the fundsfor the improved maintenance and rehabilitation trialscomponent, that the Plantation Manager had been appointed(para 4.24).
7.04 The above assurances having been obtained, the proposed Pilot Proj-ect would constitute a suitable basis for an IDA Credit of SDR 5.2 million(US$6.8 million) on standard terms to the Government of Tanzania.
Net Returns per man-day 3/ (Tsh) 35 62 119 19 23 71
1/ Traditional: Nuts - 20 nuts/palm/yr; 70 bearing palms/ha.Copra - 167 g. per nut.
Improved: Nuts - 60 nuts/palm/yr; 143 palms/ha.Copra - 167 g. per nut.
Hybrid: Nuts - 110 nuts/palm/yr; 160 palms/ha.Copra - 224 g. per nut.
2/ Establishment costs (excluding farmers own labor) incurred in years 1-6 for E.A. Tall (Tsh 4,500) andyears 1-4 for hybrid (Tsh 4,900) have been amortised assuming 8% interest for the Deriod 10-SO Vears
when the palms are in full production.3/ MDB estimates for returns per man-day for cashew, cassava and maize are Tsh 8.0, Tsh 6.0 and Tsh 8.0,
respectively.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~aI
Table T-3
TANZANIA
COCONUT PILOT PROJECT
Ecological Data
Tanga (airfield). Average on 27 years.
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Year
Average rainfall in m/m 27.8 32.9 98.1 238.9 270.8 74.6 67.2 69.5 84.3 101.7' 138.0 71.9 1,275.7
Mean maxi. to (Co) 31.9 32.8 32.8 3°.8 29.5 29.0 28.2 28.2 28.8 29.7 30.8 31.7 30.3
Mean mini, to (CO) 23.6 23.7 23.8 23.3 2202 20.8 20.1 19.8 20.2 21.3 22.6 23.3 22.1
Bagamoyo Average on 66 years.
Average rainfall in m/r 82.4 67.9 107.4 239.9 185.4 41.8 32.5 29.5 27.4 45.3 77.7 108.0 1,045.2Mean maxi. to (CO) 32.1 32.2 32.1 31.5 30.6 30.3 29.6 29.2 29.3 3o.6 31.6 31.9 30,9Mean mini. to (C
GRAND TOTAL A + B 3,254 166 72 99 114 28 _.3 -&L 3,l
Table T-5fTANZANIA
COCONUT PILOT PROJECT
Soil Survey
(Tsh' 000)
Foreign ForeignYear 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Exchange Exchange1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total % Total
Consultants Fee for Selection of Varietal Trial Sites 1,245 1,245 100 1,945
Consultants Fee for Coconut Land Suitability Map Preparation 1.120 1.135 2.255 100 2.?2Total 1.245 1.120 1.135 3,500 100 3.500
Table T-5g
TANZANIA
COCONUT PILOT PROJECT
Technical Assistance(Tsh' 000)
Foreign ForeignUnit Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Exchange ExchangeCost Grade 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total % Total
