Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PAD2429 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT ON A PROPOSED GRANT FROM THE GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR EDUCATION IN THE AMOUNT OF US$30 MILLION TO THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA FOR THE ETHIOPIA EDUCATION RESULTS BASED FINANCING PROJECT June 30, 2017 Education Global Practice Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
Transcript
Document of
The World Bank
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PAD2429
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION
PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT
ON A
PROPOSED GRANT FROM THE GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR EDUCATION
IN THE AMOUNT OF US$30 MILLION
TO THE
FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA
FOR THE
ETHIOPIA EDUCATION RESULTS BASED FINANCING PROJECT
June 30, 2017
Education Global Practice
Africa Region
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.
Pub
lic D
iscl
osur
e A
utho
rized
Pub
lic D
iscl
osur
e A
utho
rized
Pub
lic D
iscl
osur
e A
utho
rized
Pub
lic D
iscl
osur
e A
utho
rized
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
Exchange Rate Effective May 30, 2017
Currency Unit = Ethiopian Birr (ETB)
ETB 23.09 = US$1
US$0.044 = ETB 1
FISCAL YEAR July 8 – July 7
BoFED Bureau of Finance and Economic Development
BP Bank Policy
CPF Country Partnership Framework
CSA Central Statistical Agency
CTE College of Teacher Education
DLI Disbursement-linked Indicator
DLR Disbursement-linked Result
ECE Early Childhood Education
ECERS Early Childhood Education Environment Rating Scale
EEP Eligible Expenditure Program
EMIS Education Management Information Systems
EFY Ethiopian Fiscal Year
ESAA Education Statistics Annual Abstract
ESDP V Education Sector Development Program V
ESPES Enhancing Shared Prosperity through Equitable Services
ETWG Education Technical Working Group
FM Financial Management
FY Fiscal Year
GCO GEQIP Coordination Office
GEID General Education Inspection Directorate
GEQIP General Education Quality Improvement Project
GoE Government of Ethiopia
GPE Global Partnership for Education
GPI Gender Parity Index
IBEX Integrated Budget and Expenditure
IDA International Development Association
IFR Interim Financial Report
IPF Investment Project Financing
OP Operational Policy
PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability
PFM Public Finance Management
SIP School Improvement Program
MoE Ministry of Education
MoFEC Ministry of Finance and Economic Cooperation
NGO Nongovernmental Organization
NPP National Procurement Procedures
NPV Net Present Value
OFAG Office of the Federal Auditor General
PAD Project Appraisal Document
PBS Protection of Basic Services
PDO Project Development Objective
POM Project Operations Manual
PPSD Project Procurement Strategy for Development
REB Regional Education Bureau
SNNPR Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples Region
Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop
Country Director: Carolyn Turk
Senior Global Practice Director: Jaime Saavedra Chanduvi
Practice Manager: Sajitha Bashir
Task Team Leader(s): Anna Olefir, Girma Woldetsadik
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 1 of 63
BASIC INFORMATION
Is this a regionally tagged project? Country(ies) Financing Instrument
No Investment Project Financing
[ ] Situations of Urgent Need of Assistance or Capacity Constraints
[ ] Financial Intermediaries
[ ] Series of Projects
Approval Date Closing Date Environmental Assessment Category
30-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2019 C - Not Required
Bank/IFC Collaboration
No
Proposed Development Objective(s) The Project Development Objective is to contribute to improvement of learning conditions in primary schools in targeted regions including in pre-primary classes. Components Component Name Cost (US$, millions)
Component 1: Improving Learning Conditions in Primary Schools in Targeted Regions 10.00
Component 2: Strengthening Equity and Inclusion in Education 10.00
Component 3: Improving Internal Efficiency of Primary Schools in SNNP Region 10.00
Organizations Borrower :
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
Implementing Agency : Ministry of Education
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Total Project Cost: Total Financing: Financing Gap:
30.00 30.00 0.00
Of Which Bank Financing (IBRD/IDA):
0.00
Financing (in US$, millions) FIN_SUMM_OLD
Financing Source Amount
Education for All Supervising Entity 30.00
Total 30.00
Expected Disbursements (in US$, millions)
Fiscal Year 2017 2018 2019
Annual 0.00 16.00 14.00
Cumulative 0.00 16.00 30.00
INSTITUTIONAL DATA
Practice Area (Lead)
Education
Contributing Practice Areas
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 3 of 63
Gender Tag Does the project plan to undertake any of the following? a. Analysis to identify Project-relevant gaps between males and females, especially in light of country gaps identified through SCD and CPF Yes b. Specific action(s) to address the gender gaps identified in (a) and/or to improve women or men's empowerment Yes c. Include Indicators in results framework to monitor outcomes from actions identified in (b) Yes
SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT)
Risk Category Rating
1. Political and Governance Substantial
2. Macroeconomic Moderate
3. Sector Strategies and Policies Moderate
4. Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial
5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability Moderate
6. Fiduciary Substantial
7. Environment and Social Moderate
8. Stakeholders Moderate
9. Other
10. Overall Moderate
COMPLIANCE
Policy
Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects?
[ ] Yes [✔] No
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 4 of 63
Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies?
[ ] Yes [✔] No
Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No
Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 ✔
Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 ✔
Forests OP/BP 4.36 ✔
Pest Management OP 4.09 ✔
Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 ✔
Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 ✔
Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 ✔
Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 ✔
Projects on International Waterways OP/BP 7.50 ✔
Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 ✔
Legal Covenants
Sections and Description The Recipient shall ensure that a financial management system is maintained in accordance with the provisions of
Section 2.07 of the Standard Conditions (Schedule 2, Section II, B, 1 of the Grant Agreement).
Sections and Description The Recipient shall prepare and furnish to the World Bank not later than seventy-five (75) days after the end of
each fiscal quarter, interim unaudited financial reports for the Project covering the fiscal quarter, in form and
substance satisfactory to the World Bank (Schedule 2, Section II, B, 2 of the Grant Agreement).
Sections and Description The Recipient shall have its Financial Statements audited in accordance with the provisions of Section 2.07(b) of
the Standard Conditions. Each audit of the Financial Statements shall cover the period of one (1) fiscal year of the
Recipient. The audited Financial Statements for each such period shall be furnished to the World Bank not later
than nine (9) months after the end of such period (Schedule 2, Section II, B, 3 of the Grant Agreement).
Sections and Description The Recipient shall, not later than two (2) months after the Effective Date, adopt a project operations manual (the
“Project Operations Manual” or “POM”), in form and substance satisfactory to the World Bank (Schedule 2,
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 5 of 63
Section I, A, 1 of the Grant Agreement).
Sections and Description The Recipient, not later than two (2) months after the Effective Date, shall submit a written commitment of the
Recipient of not reducing the recurrent budget allocation of the MoE until the Project is completed (Schedule 2,
Section V of the Grant Agreement).
Conditions
Type Description Effectiveness This Agreement shall not become effective until evidence satisfactory to the World
Bank has been furnished to the World Bank that the conditions specified below, namely the execution and delivery of this Agreement on behalf of the Recipient have been duly authorized or ratified by all necessary governmental actions (Article 5, 5.01 of the Grant Agreement).
Type Description Effectiveness As part of the evidence to be furnished pursuant to Section 5.01, there shall be
furnished to the World Bank an opinion or opinions satisfactory to the World Bank of counsel acceptable to the World Bank or, if the World Bank so requests, a certificate satisfactory to the World Bank of a competent official of the Recipient, showing the following matters, namely, on behalf of the Recipient, that this Agreement has been duly authorized or ratified by, and executed and delivered on its behalf and is legally binding upon it in accordance with its terms (Article 5, 5.02 of the Grant Agreement).
Type Description Effectiveness Except as the Recipient and the World Bank shall otherwise agree, this Agreement
shall enter into effect on the date upon which the World Bank dispatches to the Recipient notice of its acceptance of the evidence required pursuant to Section 5.01 (“Effective Date”). If, before the Effective Date, any event has occurred which would have entitled the World Bank to suspend the right of the Recipient to make withdrawals from the Grant Account if this Agreement had been effective, the World Bank may postpone the dispatch of the notice referred to in this Section until such event (or events) has (or have) ceased to exist (and Article 5, 5.03 of the Grant Agreement).
Type Description Disbursement No withdrawal shall be made for payments made prior to the date of the Grant
Agreement; except that withdrawals up to an aggregate amount not to exceed US$ 6,000,000, equivalent may be made for payments made up to July 8, 2016 for EEPs (Schedule 2, Section IV, B,1 (a) of the Grant Agreement).
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 6 of 63
Type Description Disbursement No withdrawal shall be made under Category (1), in any EFY commencing in EFY
2010, unless and until the Recipient has furnished to the World Bank: (i) evidence, in form and substance satisfactory to the World Bank, that the respective DLIs and DLRs specified in the table in Schedule 3 have been met and verified in accordance with Section II.C of Schedule 2 to the Agreement; and (ii) documentation under the EEP Sector Budget Lines in the Annex to Schedule 2 to this Agreement (Schedule 2, Section IV, B, 1 (b) of the Grant Agreement).
Type Description Disbursement Withdrawals shall be made in one (1) up to ten (10) payments and in amounts not
exceeding the total of the ceilings per each respective DLI and DLR provided in Schedule 3, subject to submission to the World Bank of evidence satisfactory to the World Bank and as defined in the POM that such DLIs and DLRs have been achieved (Schedule 2, Section IV, B, 2 (a) of the Grant Agreement).
Type Description Disbursement If, at any time, the World Bank determines that any portion of the amounts
disbursed by the Recipient under Category (1) was made: (a) for expenditures which are not eligible under the EEP; or (b) not in compliance with the provisions of Section IV.B.2 (a), the Recipient shall promptly refund any such amount to the World Bank as the World Bank shall specify by notice to the Recipient (Schedule 2, Section IV, B, 2(b) of the Grant Agreement).
PROJECT TEAM
Bank Staff
Name Role Specialization Unit
Anna Olefir Team Leader(ADM Responsible)
Education Specialist GED01
Girma Woldetsadik Team Leader Senior Education Specialist GED01
ANNEX 3: IMPLEMENTATION, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT AND PROCUREMENT ARRANGEMENTS ................................................................................................................. 47
ANNEX 4. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ................................................................. 58
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 10 of 63
I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT
A. Country Context
1. Ethiopia is a large, landlocked, and diverse country with more than 90 ethnic and linguistic groups and a population of over 99 million (World Bank 2015). With an annual growth rate of 2.5 percent, Ethiopia’s population is expected to reach 130 million by 2025. The country has experienced rapid economic growth over the past decade. According to official data, real gross domestic product growth averaged 10.9 percent annually (8 percent per capita) in 2004–2014. The recent El Niño drought slowed growth in 2015/16, but even in this year, gross domestic product growth was estimated at 8.5 percent, a rate that still places Ethiopia among the fastest-growing economies in the world. Nonetheless, Ethiopia remains the 13th poorest country in the world. More than 80 percent of the population lives in rural areas, although urbanization is increasing as workers move from agriculture toward manufacturing and services jobs.
2. The country has achieved impressive progress in economic, social, and human development areas and it is important to sustain that. Ethiopia is among the countries that have made the greatest progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals: primary school enrollments have quadrupled, child mortality has been cut by half, and the number of people with access to clean water has more than doubled. The central objective of Ethiopian national strategies is to progress to a lower middle income economy by 2025. Strong and robust economic growth and development will necessarily have to rely on the country's human capital. The Government recognizes the importance of education and is implementing the Education Sector Development Program V (ESDP V) 2016–2020, aimed to ensure improved quality education equitably across all levels and provide schooling that is aligned with the needs of the Ethiopian economy in line with the country’s middle income status aspirations.
B. Sectoral and Institutional Context
3. The Government of Ethiopia (GoE) has demonstrated its commitment to investing in education. Over the past decade, the share of education budget in the total government budget has remained steady at 20 percent. Public spending on education, in Ethiopia, increased by 70 percent in real terms between 2003/04 and 2011/12. This increase is largely a result of the expansion of the system, with school enrollment (up to grade 12) rising from 10 million to 19 million during this period. Recurrent spending, largely composed of teacher salaries, doubled during this period. A massive increase in capital spending was sustained as construction of the third generation of universities got under way. The system continues to expand, with the total number of learners reaching 25 million in the 2015/16 school year.
4. Since 2009, the GoE has worked to establish the elements critical to improving students' learning outcomes and completion rates. Funded by multiple donors, a national flagship program to improve quality (the General Education Quality Improvement Project [GEQIP]) has supported this effort. The GEQIP II focuses on improvements in general education, from preprimary to secondary level and finances activities in six areas: (a) curriculum implementation and textbook and learning material provision; (b) teacher and school leader development; (c) school improvement program (SIP); (d) strengthening system management and capacity building; (e) improving education quality through
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 11 of 63
information and communication technology; and (f) program planning and coordination, monitoring, and evaluation. The focus of this program was to increase the supply and deployment of qualified teachers; provide teacher training, textbooks, and learning materials; and disburse school grants. As a result, student-input ratios and the quality of inputs have improved markedly, creating grounds for the next generation of education reforms in the country.
5. Equally significantly, learning outcomes at the primary level have modestly improved (Figures 1 and 2). The assessment results in terms of proficiency levels are positive. The number of students achieving basic proficiency or higher in all subjects between 2011 and 2015 has substantially increased for grades 4 to 8. These achievements are commendable, especially given the huge increases in enrollments. Ethiopia has avoided the deteriorating education quality that often accompanies a rapid expansion of access. The progress has not been uniform. In some critical areas, problems have persisted for years, although in some cases they have diminished over time.
Figure 1. Grade 8 Comparison of 2011 and 2015 Proficiency Level
Source: Striving for Excellence: Analysis of Ethiopia National Learning Assessments 2011 and 2015 (World Bank, 2016)
Figure 2. Number of children achieving basic or higher in all subjects (thousands)
Source: Striving for Excellence: Analysis of Ethiopia National Learning Assessments 2011 and 2015 (World Bank, 2016)
children enrolled and achieving basic in allsubjects
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 12 of 63
6. Efficiency (high dropout rates from the primary grades, especially grade 1). On efficiency, although Ethiopia has made significant progress in primary school enrollment rates, the internal efficiency of the education system is still plagued by high dropout rates, causing primary school completion rates and secondary school enrollment rates to fall well below their peers. The problem remains particularly acute in grade 1, with only 78 percent of students progressing to grade 2. The national average dropout rate for grade 1, in 2014/15, was 21.4 percent, with large regional variation. Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples Region (SNNPR) is the region with the highest grade 1 dropout rate nationally. Grade 1 dropout rates for 2011/12, 20012/13, and 2014/15 were 32.2 percent, 28.6 percent, and 25.2 percent, respectively, which are substantially higher than the national average for the same years. SNNPR is the third most populous region in Ethiopia which means that in absolute terms, the number of grade 1 dropouts contributes substantially to the national results.
7. One promising approach to generating greater demand for education among the poor is increased
communication and outreach to poor, rural households. Evidence from within Ethiopia indicates that providing households with information that helps raise their aspirations can influence their decision to send children to school. In 2010/11, researchers from the International Food Policy Research Institute and the University of Oxford measured aspirations in Doba woreda, a very remote and historically food-insecure woreda where the majority of residents are subsistence farmers. To ascertain whether increasing information would affect aspirations, selected individuals were randomly invited to watch documentaries about people from similar communities who had succeeded in agriculture or small business, without help from the Government or nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Immediately after the screening of the documentaries, among other effects, aspirations on the educational attainment of children increased and were even higher six months later. The changes in aspirations had a significant impact on household investment behavior, with the number of children enrolled in school increasing by 15 percent among those who had watched the documentary.
8. Low-quality schools (Level 1 in inspection standards). Ethiopia has developed a system of measuring school performance through inspection. Ethiopia’s school inspection system includes annual school self-assessment and external inspection every three years. The inspection framework is robust and consists of 7 standards on school inputs, 14 standards on processes, and 5 standards on outcomes. Based on the aggregate percentage score in these 26 standards, schools are classified into 4 levels of performance, with Level 3 and Level 4 meeting the national standard (while Level 1 and 2 are below standard). In two 2013/14 academic years, about 22,205 primary and secondary schools were inspected. 1 In the Afar region, 385 primary schools were inspected over these two academic years. As can be seen in Figure 3, among the 10 regions for which the data are available, Afar has by far the highest percentage of Level 1 schools. Out of the 385 primary schools that were inspected in the region in 2013/14 and 2014/15, 179 schools (46.5 percent) are at Level 1. Relative to other regions, schools in Afar are struggling to meet basic standards and therefore require a targeted and sustained intervention to address the input-, process-, and output-related challenges they face. A commitment to provide special support to these schools is crucial to improve learning conditions for some of the most disadvantaged schools and students in the country, as well as to develop models of school
1 Out of the total 22,205 inspected schools, detailed data in the 26 standards are available for 18,372 schools (55 percent of the
total number). For the Afar region, detailed data are available for only 190 schools (33 percent of schools in the region). Based on the experience to date, the best-performing schools near the education bureaus are inspected first, so the situation in the region is likely to be more dire.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 13 of 63
improvement for nationwide scale-up.
Figure 3. Percentage of Level 1 Schools by Region
Source: Data from the 2006–2007 Ethiopian Calendar inspections (no data were available for Somali).
9. Low quality of preprimary program. Early childhood development is critical for effective learning
and achieving better outcomes. Well-conceived, good-quality early childhood education (ECE) enhances children’s readiness for schooling and has a positive and permanent influence on later schooling achievements and completion rates. In the last three years, the number of children enrolled in O-classes has doubled and continues to grow. The O-class one-year school readiness program is aimed at 6-year-olds and delivered in primary school compounds. To further supplement its effort toward increasing the capacity of O-class teachers and effectively improve the quality of O-classes, the Government has included school grants coverage for 6-year-old children enrolled in O-classes starting from the 2016/17 school year. At the same time, the key challenge is that almost all teachers in these classes have little or no training in child development and appropriate pedagogical approaches. This negatively affects the effectiveness of early childhood programs in the country.
10. Equity. In ESDP V, the first priority of the education and training system in Ethiopia focuses on equity. It aims at “providing equal opportunities and participation for all, with special attention to disadvantaged groups.” The equity goal translates into specific goals, including with respect to students with special needs and gender. The school-age population (ages 4 to 18) in Ethiopia is more than 33.5 million, with an estimated 5 million children with special educational needs. In the 2014/15 Education Statistics Annual Abstract (ESAA) published by the EMIS, only 83,086 children (41 percent girls and 59 percent boys) with identified special educational needs were recorded as enrolled in grades 1 to 12. With regard to primary education, only a very limited number of special needs students had access to education (primary gross enrollment rate is 4 percent). ESDP V underlines the importance of provision of inclusive education in mainstream schools, including in preprimary O-classes (which is a one-year school readiness program aimed at 6-year-olds and delivered in primary school compounds).
11. The Government has significantly improved the gender parity index (GPI) in general education. In primary education, the GPI has been maintained at 0.93 for the last five years. In secondary education,
2.4
46.5
12.4
23.1
41.1
14.3
26.8
13.9 16.6
6.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Tigray Afar Amhara Oromiya BenishangulGumuz
SNNP Gambella Harari Addis Ababa Dire Dawa
Per
cen
tage
Gra
de
1
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 14 of 63
the GPI improved significantly from less than 0.5 to almost 0.9 over the same period. In ESDP V the gender focus translates into GPI key performance indicators at the student, teacher, and school leadership levels. Although the gender gap has been significantly reduced at the student level and has been narrowed at the teacher level, at the school management level, only 9.4 percent of primary school principals in the country were women in the 2015/16 academic year. Increasing the proportion of women in school leadership positions is a critical priority for the more equitable representation of women as school leaders and serves to change pervasive preconceptions held by students, education professionals, and community members at large on differing competencies of men and women as senior management leaders. ESDP V targets to improve the gender balance in school leadership by increasing the share of school principals who are women to 20 percent by 2020. To achieve this, Ethiopia mobilizes efforts from the Regional Education Bureaus (REBs) in selection and recruitment, universities in training future school leaders, and the MoE in developing attractive career progression and raising awareness.
C. Higher Level Objectives to which the Project Contributes
12. The proposed grant from the Global Partnership for Education (GPE) will support the implementation of ESDP V. It is aligned with the World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Ethiopia FY18–FY22 (World Bank report 115135) and GPE goals calling for inclusive and equitable quality education for all. The proposed project directly supports the CPF Focus Area 2 “Building resilience and inclusiveness”, the objective of “Improved basic education learning outcomes”. The project also contributes to all three pillars of the World Bank’s Education 2020 strategy: ‘investing smartly’ in education, ‘investing early’, and ‘investing for all’. The proposed grant builds on the achievements and lessons of Ethiopia’s GEQIP I and II, financed by the International Development Association; the development partners (including U.K. Department for International Development, Finland, Italy, Norway, the Netherlands, United Nations Children's Fund, and United States Agency for International Development); and the GPE under a pooled funding arrangement.
13. The proposed project, through the results-based approach, will incentivize the GoE to deliver transformational education outcomes in some of the most educationally disadvantaged regions of the country. Through these intensive interventions, strategies to address serious problems in the education system will be identified, implemented, and monitored. Effectively, these interventions will serve as pilots, which will then be used to develop models that will be scaled up nationally to address these issues. The Government’s and regions’ willingness to pilot these interventions in the most disadvantaged regions can be extremely beneficial for the GEQIP II success in the remaining time. It will also provide a unique opportunity for the GoE to test and transition to a results-based financing model for the proposed Ethiopia Education for Growth and Transformation Program for Results, currently under preparation.
II. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES
A. PDO
14. The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to contribute to improvement of learning conditions in
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 15 of 63
primary schools in targeted regions, including in pre-primary classes.
B. Project Beneficiaries
15. The project’s direct beneficiaries include present and future students of Ethiopia, including those with special needs, who will benefit from improved learning conditions in primary schools in targeted regions, including in O-classes. The project will also benefit O-class teachers by increasing their capacity to deliver the newly developed O-class curriculum package. The newly appointed women school principals will benefit from participation in the professional development program that focuses on school leadership and management. The project will also strengthen the capacity of the MoE and REBs to plan and implement the relevant interventions.
C. PDO-Level Results Indicators
16. The following PDO-level results indicators, which reflect the priority areas of learning outcomes, equity, and efficiency in line with the ESDP V targets, have been identified by the Government and have been agreed at national consultative workshops and follow-up meetings with participation of the development partners and will be monitored under the project:
Share of low-performing primary schools in the Afar region, with highest share of these school decreased from 46.5 to 25.7 percent
At least 90 percent of O-class teachers in the Benishangul-Gumuz region (> 447) trained on newly developed accelerated ECE curriculum package with the end target of 90 percent
At least 90 percent of O-class teachers in the Benishangul-Gumuz region (> 160) trained on newly developed accelerated ECE curriculum package with the end target of 90 percent
Additionally appointed trained female primary school principals2, from 3,150 principals to 6,210
Utilization and report by each region on supplementary school for children with special needs, reaching to utilization of 4 percent supplementary school grant
Grade 1 dropout rate in SNNPR3 decreased from 25.20 percent to 13 percent
III. PROJECT DESCRIPTION
A. Project Components
17. The proposed grant is an Investment Project Financing (IPF) with a results-based financing modality under which disbursements will be linked to the achievement of pre-agreed results in the three pillars/dimensions of (a) learning outcomes; (b) equity; and (c) efficiency in line with ESDP V and requirements of the GPE new funding model. The proposed project (using the results-based financing approach) and the sister operation GEQIP II (under the traditional disbursement method) complement each other to strengthen the results for the overall sector while maintaining clearly distinguishable results attributable to each project.
Component 1: Improving Learning Conditions in Primary Schools in Targeted Regions (US$10 million or
2 To reach 6,210 women primary school principals in the country.
3 The region with the highest grade 1 dropout rate
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 16 of 63
33.3 percent of total Grant amount - to be disbursed against the achievement of DLIs)
18. The objective of this component is to contribute to improving the learning conditions in primary schools in targeted regions, including in the preprimary O-classes. Support under this component will be provided for (a) reducing the proportion of low-performing primary schools (Level 1 in inspection standards) in the region with highest share of these school (Afar region) and (b) improving the learning environment of preprimary O-classes in two emerging regions (Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions) by increasing the capacity of O-class teachers to deliver an ECE curriculum package. The MoE will undertake the following activities to achieve these results: (a) upgrade 80 low-performing primary schools in the Afar region from Level 1 in inspection standards to Level 2 during the first year of the project; (b) develop a new ECE curriculum package for preprimary O-classes; and (c) train at least 609 preprimary teachers and implement the newly developed ECE curriculum in the O-class settings in the Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions.
19. The proposed project will support a comprehensive intervention model to turn around 80 low-performing primary schools in the Afar region over a two-year period. Afar was selected given that it has one of the highest shares of low-performing primary schools in the country according to the 2013 and 2014 inspection data. To achieve this target, School Improvement Plans for Level 1 schools will be collected and analyzed to identify and implement actions to turn around their performance on standards that were identified as inadequate in the inspection results of 2015/16. This includes improving performance on inputs, process, and output standards, such as lesson planning, assessment and feedback to students, monitoring of the school improvement plan implementation, support for female and special need students, and so on (Annex 2). A critical aim of this component is to pilot this comprehensive approach in one of the most educationally disadvantaged regions of the country to derive lessons for scale up at the national level. A set of Disbursement-linked Indicators (DLIs), against which disbursements will be made, has been established in line with the results areas that will support achievement of the development objectives of the project (Table 1.2 of Annex 1a). Achievement of results will be supported by DLI 1 that is upgrade of 40 schools in Year 1 and 40 schools in Year 2.
20. The proposed grant will also support the development of the new ECE curriculum package for preprimary O-classes, training of preprimary teachers in the Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions on the new curriculum, and its implementation in the targeted O-class settings. The selection of the Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions has been made in light of their strong engagement and efforts, to date, in the design and implementation of formal and non-formal early childhood care and education services and has been endorsed by the Education Technical Working Group (ETWG) and the GPE Board. Piloting this activity in two emerging regions will provide important lessons to other emerging regions and to the nation as a whole. Achievement of results on O-classes will be supported by DLI 2 (Table 1.2 of Annex 1a). Component 2: Strengthening Equity and Inclusion in Education (US$10 million or 33.3 percent of total Grant amount - to be disbursed against the achievement of DLIs)
21. The objective of this component is to strengthen equity and inclusion in primary schools of the country. Support under this component will be provided for (a) enhancement of the gender balance in school leadership by increasing the number of trained female primary school principals and (b) development of
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 17 of 63
inclusive learning environments by increasing the school grant allocation to the regions to support children with special needs. The MoE will undertake the following activities to achieve these results: (a) train and appoint an additional 3,060 women primary school principals in the country; (b) distribute, to the regions, additional school grant allocations to specifically support education of children with special needs; and (c) report on utilization of the special needs school grants.
22. The proposed grant will focus on increasing the number of women school principals as a means of demonstrating an equitable education profession and a gender inclusive system. This is considered a transformational target in light of the societal barriers which women face in the education profession in Ethiopia and will directly support the commitments to improve gender balance articulated in the ESDP V and Growth and Transformation Plan 2. Increasing the number of women principals is expected to provide girls with role models to motivate them to excel in their studies and aspire to hold leadership positions. It is also expected to make schools more sensitive to gender-specific needs and provide girls with additional support. Capable women teachers currently in schools will be promoted to hold leadership positions, once they are provided with effective short-term leadership training. Federal and regional governments are committed to supporting and achieving this goal. The efforts toward greater gender balance in school leadership will be promoted through prioritization of women applicants for school leadership training and their deployment/placement for new openings of school principal positions. Achievement of results related to the enhancement of the gender balance will be supported by DLI 3 (Table 1.2 of Annex 1a).
23. The proposed grant will also aim to create and support a more inclusive learning environment by providing critically needed financial support for special needs education at the school level. This intervention will provide an increased amount of special needs school grant, that is, an additional top-up 4 percent of the overall school grant allocation to each region in the 2017/18 academic year. Increasing this top-up to 4 percent in 2017/18 is expected to provide regions with additional funding, allowing them to meaningfully support special needs students with a view to stimulate a positive trend in the enrollment and retention of children with special needs and in the attitudinal change among students and parents, teachers, and school leaders, which will be measured during the course of the project.4 Achievement of these results will be supported by DLI 4 (Table 1.2 of Annex 1a). Component 3: Improving Internal Efficiency of Primary Schools in SNNPR (US$10 million or 33.3
percent of total Grant amount - to be disbursed against the achievement of DLIs)
24. The objective of this component is to contribute to internal efficiency of primary education in SNNPR. Support under this component will be provided for reduction in the grade 1 dropout rate in SNNPRs to 13 percent in line with the ESDP V national target. The MoE will undertake the following activities to help improve attendance: (a) sensitize communities on the importance of student participation/attendance in early years of schooling; (b) support improvement of education quality through teacher training, and (c) strengthen the links between the SIP and the inspectorate system, thereby reinforcing a focus on improved school attendance/completion.5 School inspectorate results will be analyzed and used, with a particular focus at the woreda and school level, to implement specific
4 A case study of the Global Initiative on Out of School Children outlined that major barriers to education of children with
special needs include “the negative attitude of the community, parents, administrators, and teachers; lack of facilities and appropriate support systems; poverty; and lack of awareness and skills on how to intervene and provide support.” 5 Provision of textbooks and other learning materials (complementary activities) will be ensured through GEQIP II
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 18 of 63
actions required across the different school community contexts in SNNPR. The final intervention model and the processes of implementation and monitoring are expected to be useful and informative to the Government and other regions in their effort to reduce the dropout rate in early primary grades. Achievement of results under this component will be supported by DLI 5 (Table 1.2 of Annex 1a).
B. Project Cost and Financing
25. The proposed project is an IPF to be implemented over two years following a results-based approach with disbursements linked to achievement of measurable results. Disbursements will be made against eligible expenditures, which, for the purposes of this project, represent a set of defined expenditures for goods, consulting and non-consulting services, Training and Operating Costs (including salaries and school grants) made by the MoE.
C. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design
26. The project design has benefitted from the lessons learned in the last decade of World Bank operational work, including on GEQIP I and II, as well as advisory services and analytics in Ethiopia. The project design is also informed by the track record of similar interventions financed by the World Bank in other countries of the world. The experience with results-based approaches worldwide suggests that dialogue and strong implementation support will be critical to ensure the successful achievement of the outputs and outcomes supported by the project. These parallel, but complementary activities, allow for sustained dialogue and the provision of global knowledge and international best practices that can facilitate the implementation of activities supported under the project. The World Bank and the development partners will continue to provide technical support both to the MoE and to the REBs for the attainment of the agreed DLIs. Also, results-based operations require strong monitoring and evaluation arrangements and very precise protocols which determine the achievement of DLIs, agreed and endorsed up front to ensure transparency in their measurement and avoid diverging interpretations during their measurement. Also, the availability of quality data for verification is critical. Technical aspects of the verification exercise to ensure that have been discussed and agreed by the ETWG will constitute an integral part of the Project Operations Manual (POM).
IV. IMPLEMENTATION
A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements
27. Project implementation will be mainstreamed in the MoE using existing structures and activities under the project will be part of the everyday work of its staff. The MoE works closely with the Ministry of
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 19 of 63
Finance and Economic Cooperation (MoFEC), which is responsible for project financial coordination. At the federal level, the MoE has established task forces to supervise the work for the attainment of DLIs (Annex 2). Task Force 1, led by the SIP Directorate, is in charge of activities required to achieve DLIs 1, 4, and 5. Task Force 2, led by the Teacher Development Directorate together with the Curriculum Directorate, is in charge of the efforts under DLIs 2 and 3.
28. In each of Ethiopia’s nine regions and two city administrations, the project will be implemented by the REBs, the Regional Bureaus of Finance and Economic Development (BoFEDs), and Colleges of Teacher Education (CTEs). At the woreda level, it will be implemented by woreda education offices, Woreda offices of finance and economic cooperation, and schools. Some regions also have zonal education offices and zonal offices of finance and economic development with oversight of woreda-level implementation on behalf of the regional administrations. All these offices are responsible for implementing specific project activities to achieve the agreed DLI targets. The MoE will develop and adopt the POM, satisfactory to the World Bank, setting forth all procedures and arrangements governing the implementation of the project.
B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation
29. The project will monitor the results at the intermediate and PDO levels. The result targets will be cascaded from the MoE to the REB, zone, woreda, and school level. The GEQIP II Coordination Office (GCO), including the two Task Forces and the concerned Directorates, jointly with REBs, will be responsible for monitoring of activities and results in the targeted regions and submission of reports on the five indicators to the Planning and Resource Mobilization Directorate for upward submission to the leadership of the MoE. The GCO will facilitate and coordinate subsequent meetings with the stakeholders to review the progress on DLI targets. The GCO and the Directorates’ focal persons are responsible for ensuring effective communication and information sharing among all directorates, REBs, and other stakeholders involved in project implementation.
30. At the regional level, REBs will also monitor project activities. The REBs and city administrations will be responsible for periodic field visits and follow-up on the implementation of the DLIs in their respective woredas and schools. The REBs are also responsible for consolidating the results of the field visits and reporting to the MoE. The REBs and city administrations will also facilitate and support monitoring visits organized by the MoE. Quarterly, semiannual, and annual consolidated indicators performance reports will be prepared in line with the existing reporting system. Each region is responsible for producing its own quarterly, semiannual, and annual regional indicators performance report. Field visit reports will cover data from the REBs and schools based on the checklists to be specifically prepared for these indicators.
31. The attainment of DLIs will be verified by the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) and/or other independent verification entity, as agreed by the ETWG. Each DLI has set targets at specific time lines and achievement levels linked to it, spread over a two-year period of the project (Annex 2). Two verification cycles per year are envisaged in light of different completion and reporting timelines for DLI 5 related to reduction of dropouts in SNNPR. The independent verification entity will prepare the report with detailed description of verification activities undertaken to check the accuracy of results reported by the implementing agency; verified results for all DLIs along with recommended disbursement levels for each
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 20 of 63
DLI; highlights of major discrepancies between the reported and verified results along with explanations for such discrepancies; and critical analysis for why achievement against specific DLIs may be above or below targets, major barriers and constraints which impede progress, and recommendations and plausible solutions for the attainment of the agreed DLI targets. The independent verification entity will present its findings to the MoE, development partners, and the World Bank at the ETWG meetings.
32. In addition, joint review and implementation support missions by the World Bank and development partners will take place twice a year, aimed at reviewing the progress and achievement of the agreed results. The reports on the attainment of the DLIs and independent third-party verification reports will be reviewed and agreed by the ETWG before authorization of disbursements for the achieved targets.
C. Sustainability
33. The project will use government systems to ensure sustainability of the activities beyond the project lifetime. The Government plans a nationwide rollout of the program for upgrading the low-performing schools and the revised O-class program following the pilots in the Afar, Benishangul-Gumuz, and Gambella regions. In addition, assessments of impact of different interventions such as school grants to support education of children with special needs (DLI 4) will improve Ethiopia’s capacity to develop sector policies using sound evidence. For DLI 3, capacity building for school management is envisaged to benefit schools beyond utilization of school grants. The Government also plans to roll out the experience of SNNPR in reduction of grade 1 dropout rates nationwide to improve internal efficiency of the sector. Sustainability will also be supported by the Government’s ownership of the project and increased internal efficiency of the system because of project interventions.
V. KEY RISKS
A. Overall Risk Rating and Explanation of Key Risks
34. The overall risk is rated Moderate, as summarized in the Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool, with three risks at substantial level: (a) political and governance situation; (b) technical design of project; and (c) fiduciary risk. Regarding political and governance challenges associated with the recent social and political developments which led to temporary disruptions in education service delivery in some parts of the country, further deterioration could affect the effectiveness of the proposed project. Second, the risk in relation to the technical design of the project is rated Substantial because of the following: (a) results-based financing modality of the project in line with the GPE funding model; (b) ambitious but feasible DLI/stretch indicators targets; and (c) political economy issues around appointment of women principals and the fact that schools with vacant positions of principals are potentially among the most difficult assignments in the country. The risks identified in procurement capacity at the MoE remain high, while the overall Financial Management (FM) residual risk rating of the project is Moderate.
35. To mitigate the risks, consultations with the stakeholders from the central and regional governments in the design stage have been conducted to ensure deep understanding and ownership of the project. Ethiopia will be delivering the DLIs and associated targets of the new funding model over a two-year period. This period has been recommended by the federal Government of Ethiopia, REBs, and
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 21 of 63
development partners in recognition of the need for significant efforts which will be required to achieve the ambitious ESDP V midterm results set for mid-2018. Also, the ETWG has been fully engaged in the selection of the proposed DLIs, which aim for transformative impact at the federal and local levels, with a particular focus on the regions which have the farthest to go in meeting key educational targets. The GEQIP II activities and the proposed actions in support of achievement of the stretch indicators are closely aligned and complement each other to ensure achievement of the overall national ESDP V 2015/16–2019/20 targets. Also, there is clear commitment to and leadership of the MoE and REBs to deliver transformational education outcomes in some of the most educationally disadvantaged regions of the country, which is an important factor for the implementation efforts to succeed.
36. In addition, the risks will be mitigated through the following activities. First, the project proposes to target gender, disability, and geographic sources of inequity, which can play a major role in making sure that all groups share the benefits of growth and helping resolve some of the societal issues. In addition, school principals will be supported through a professional development program that focuses on school leadership and management. Particular attention will be given to the transparency of the selection and school principals’ nomination process. Second, the risks will also be mitigated through capacity-building activities, jointly with the development partners, and strengthening implementation, EMIS, and monitoring and evaluation systems at different levels of administration. Furthermore, the contracts for the procurement items are of low value and measures are put in place to mitigate the risks associated with the procurement (Annex 3).
VI. APPRAISAL SUMMARY
A. Economic and Financial Analysis
37. The proposed project will have a development impact in several areas of the preprimary and primary education cycles. The proposed project will allow the creation of a better learning environment for students in the most educationally disadvantaged regions. The principal benefits expected from the project stem from the fact that individuals are expected to be more employable and productive by developing relevant skills which are required to participate productively in life. In Ethiopia, completing primary school is associated with 58 percent higher earnings among wage earners in the private sector (Labor Force Survey 2013). Student learning, in turn, leads not only to higher earnings for individuals throughout their lifetime but also to faster economic growth for nations. This is particularly important in the context of Ethiopia, as education, including low primary completion rates, hinder economic growth of the country (World Bank Systematic Country Diagnostic for Ethiopia 2016). The cost-benefit analysis indicates that the proposed project would yield a benefit-to-cost ratio of 3.1, where quantifiable benefits are derived from higher earnings enjoyed by students because of tackling dropouts. Sensitivity analyses of the results were performed on key parameters and confirmed that the project yields positive net benefits and proves to be a good investment for Ethiopia.
B. Technical
38. The results-based approach for the proposed project is based on international experience in many client countries. This approach is increasingly used by the World Bank in the education sector in response to
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 22 of 63
the growing demand from countries, following the successful adoption of a related approach in the health sector. The project design was informed by the recent Ethiopia Systematic Country Diagnostic, analytical work undertaken by the World Bank, including the Striving for Excellence study and Education Sector Financing review. The proposed project aims to address some of the key challenges faced by the sector. Its design has benefited from extensive consultations with senior government officials, development partners, representatives of NGOs, and the GPE, as well as experience and lessons learned from GEQIP I and II.
39. In addition, the project scope and design also factored in complementary activities under the ongoing sister operation GEQIP-II. A strong emphasis on monitoring and evaluation is built into the project to ensure sound results monitoring and useful feedback on progress with implementation of project activities. The project design envisages assessment of the impact of different interventions such as of the school grant supporting education of children with special needs and the delivery of the newly developed ECE curriculum package in selected regions. The proposed project also focuses on cost-effective interventions that are commensurate with the capacity of the implementing institutions.
C. Financial Management
40. FM assessment was conducted in accordance with the Financial Management Practices Manual for World Bank-financed investment operations issued on February 4, 2015, and the supporting guidelines. In conducting the assessment, the World Bank team reviewed the experiences of GEQIP I and II. Furthermore, the overall financial management system of the MoE was taken into account.
41. The program will build on the strengths of the country’s public finance management (PFM) system such as the budget process, classification system, and compliance with financial regulations. Significant ongoing work is directed at improving the country’s PFM systems through the Government’s Expenditure Management and Control subprogram. The program also benefits from the country’s internal control system, which provides sufficiently for the separation of responsibilities, powers, and duties, and it benefits from the effort being made to improve the internal audit function.
42. The Eligible Expenditure Program (EEP) for the project will be recurrent costs at the MoE. The Government will be reimbursed upon presentation of the EEP and achievement of the results. Moreover, it was agreed with the Government that the reimbursed resource will be directed to the education sector for implementing the activities already disclosed in the Project Appraisal Document (PAD) as well as activities that will be detailed on an annual work plan to be prepared by the MoE. Accordingly, the project will follow the Government’s Channel One fund flow mechanism, whereby resources will flow from the MoFEC to the MoE and regions for implementation of agreed-upon activities and for reimbursement of results.
43. The MoE reports its financial report to the MoFEC on a monthly basis. Summary of the recurrent costs are produced from the IFMIS. This report will be used for the justification of the EEPs. Furthermore, as is being done currently in GEQIP II, the MoFEC will produce quarterly financial report for the implementation of the activities outlined on the PAD as well as to be planned on the annual work plan. The Office of the Auditor General (OFAG) audits the MoE on a yearly basis. This audit will be used as justification for the EEP. In addition to this, the activities implemented through the receipt of this
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 23 of 63
funding will be audited together with the ongoing GEQIP II operation with separate financial report.
44. The conclusion of the FM assessment is that the FM arrangements meet the International Development Association (IDA) requirements according to Operational Policy (OP)/Bank Policy (BP) 10.00. The preliminary action plan has been developed to mitigate the risks identified in the project.
D. Procurement
45. The Recipient has prepared the Project Procurement Strategy for Development (PPSD) which helped to identify procurement arrangements to support the achievement of the development objectives as well as mitigation measures to minimize potential risks during project implementation. Procurement activities under this Grant include procurable recurrent expenditures of small contract values. To achieve the DLIs, the MoE will procure these items by approaching national markets through National Procurement Procedures (NPP) in accordance with Section 5 paragraph 5.4 of the Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers (July 1, 2016). All procurement will follow procedures as provided for under Ethiopian Federal Government and Procurement and Property Administration Proclamation No. 649/2009 and Federal Public Procurement Directive issued by the MoFEC dated June 10, 2010 subject to the requirements of the Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers (July 1, 2016).
E. Social (including Safeguards)
46. The proposed project will be implemented in pastoral and agropastoral areas of Ethiopia, including the National Regional State of Afar, Gambella, Benishangul-Gumuz, and SNPPR. The social assessment undertaken during preparation of the sister operation GEQIP II, which finances complementary activities in the same areas as the proposed grant, assessed the potential impact of GEQIP II on the more vulnerable and disadvantaged groups and the emerging regions in Ethiopia and identified strategies for mitigating the risks. Conclusions and recommendations of the social assessment will be adhered to and implemented under the proposed grant. This includes, among others, supporting provision of preprimary education in local languages in pastoral and agropastoral areas of Ethiopia and building teachers’ capacity accordingly, supporting equitable access to education for girls through appointment of women school principals and providing support to children with special needs. The proposed grant does not introduce new social risks, and foreseen impacts are likely to be positive. The institutional capacity on social safeguards implementation and reporting mechanism will be strengthened. A dedicated safeguards focal person for the project will be hired in partnership with the ongoing GEQIP II. The latter is currently conducting the Social Management Plan Implementation Performance Assessment. Actions identified and proposed by the performance assessment will be also supported by the proposed grant to address any social risks. The proposed grant will provide technical support in this area.
F. Environment (including Safeguards)
47. The proposed project is not expected to trigger environmental safeguard policies as no physical works, civil works, rehabilitation, or land acquisition activities are envisaged.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results Based Financing Project (P163608)
Page 24 of 63
G. Other Safeguard Policies (if applicable)
48. Not applicable.
H. World Bank Grievance Redress
49. Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a World Bank (WB) supported project may submit complaints to existing project-level grievance redress mechanisms or the WB’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly reviewed in order to address project-related concerns. Project affected communities and individuals may submit their complaint to the WB’s independent Inspection Panel which determines whether harm occurred, or could occur, as a result of WB non-compliance with its policies and procedures. Complaints may be submitted at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the World Bank's attention, and Bank Management has been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank’s corporate Grievance Redress Service (GRS), please visit http://www.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/products-and-services/grievance-redress-service. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank Inspection Panel, please visit
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 25 of 63
VII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING
Results Framework COUNTRY : Ethiopia
ETHIOPIA EDUCATION RESULTS BASED FINANCING PROJECT Project Development Objectives
The Project Development Objective is to contribute to improvement of learning conditions in primary schools in targeted regions including in pre-primary classes. Project Development Objective Indicators
Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure
Baseline End Target Frequency Data Source/Methodology Responsibility for Data Collection
Name: Share of low performing primary schools in Afar region
Inspection and re-inspection reports from the GEID, report of the independent verification entity (sample-based verification)
MoE (Planning and Resource Mobilization Directorate, SIP Directorate, GEQIP-II GSO) and Afar REB, independent verification entity
Description: Low performing primary schools are Level 1 as measured by inspection standards. All level 1 schools will be re-inspected. End-target: 25.7% of inspected primary schools in the Afar region should be at Level 1 (out of 385 schools inspected in 2013/14 and 2014/15) corresponding to 99 schools.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 26 of 63
Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure
Baseline End Target Frequency Data Source/Methodology Responsibility for Data Collection
Name: At least 90 percent of O-class teachers in Benishangul-Gumuz region (> 447) trained on newly developed accelerated ECE curriculum package
Percentage 0.00 90.00 Annual monitoring report
Report of the MoE on post-training assessment and availability of classroom materials, report of the independent verification entity
MoE (Planning and Resource Mobilization Directorate, SIP Directorate, GSO) and Benishangul-Gumuz REB, independent verification entity
Description: Baseline: 0% of the O-class teachers in Benishangul-Gumuz (497) have received training on a newly developed O-class curriculum package. End target: train more than 90% of O-class teachers in Benishangul-Gumuz equal to at least 448 teachers.
Name: At least 90 percent of O-class teachers in Gambella (> 160) trained on newly developed accelerated ECE curriculum package
Training schedules and materials, list of trained facilitatirs, results of post-training assessment, report on availability of the ECE curriculum package materials, report of the independent verification entity
MoE (Planning and Resource Mobilization Directorate, SIP Directorate, GEQIP-II GSO) and Gambella REB, independent verification entity
Description: Baseline: 0% of the O-class teachers in Gambella (178) have received a 30-day training on a newly developed O-class curriculum package. End target: train more than 90% of O-class teachers in Gambella which is equal to at least 161 teachers.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 27 of 63
Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure
Baseline End Target Frequency Data Source/Methodology Responsibility for Data Collection
Name: Additionally appointed trained female primary school principals
Number 3150.00 6210.00 Semi-annual monitoring reports
Training schedules and list of trained principles with the results on the post-training assessment; new school principal appointment letters and/or personnel records by regions, MoE report on situation with the gender balance in school leadership, report of the independent verification entity
MoE (Planning and Resource Mobilization Directorate, Teacher Development Directorate, Curriculum Directorate, GSO) and REBs, independent verification entity
Description: The appointment letters or personnel records of new female primary school principals (who completed the professional development program that focuses on school leadership and management) will be compiled and reported by regions.
Name: Utilization and report by each region on suplementary school grant support for children with special needs
Text 1% supplementary school grant (no report on utilization)
detailed report on utilization of 4% supplementary school grant
Semi-annual monitoring reports
Report on the utilization of the School Grant for special needs by regions and by categories of students with special needs receiving the support; independent verification entity's report.
MoE (Planning and Resource Mobilization Directorate, SIP Directorate, GEQIP-II GSO) and REBs, independent verification entity
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 28 of 63
Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure
Baseline End Target Frequency Data Source/Methodology Responsibility for Data Collection
Description: Each region received an additional 1% on top of their actual school grant allocation to specifically support special needs in 2015/16 (2% in 2016/17). The MoE is to provide descriptive/qualitative data on changes observed in terms of attitudes and awareness, support provided to students with special needs and their educational attainment.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 29 of 63
Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure
Baseline End Target Frequency Data Source/Methodology Responsibility for Data Collection
the year (once a year for each level 1 school).
and Afar REB
Description: Re-Inspection reports will confirm the number of schools that have been upgraded from Level 1 to Level 2 classification (179 primary schools in Afar region will be subject to re-inspection which were at level 1 in 2013/14 and 2014/15 inspection results).
Name: New O-class curriculum package developed
Yes/No N Y Semi-annual monitoring reports
O-class curriculum materials, teacher training program and list of classroom supplies
Teacher Development Directorate, Curriculum Directorate
Description: O-class curriculum package includes student curriculum materials, teacher training program and list of classroom supplies
Name: Female primary school principals trained
Number 0.00 3060.00 Semi-annual monitoring reports
Training materials, schedules and list of principles who completed the training and their results on the post-training assessment
MoE (Planning and Resource Mobilization Directorate, Teacher Development Directorate, Curriculum Directorate, GSO)
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 30 of 63
Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure
Baseline End Target Frequency Data Source/Methodology Responsibility for Data Collection
Description: Training on school leadership and management
Name: Special needs school grant guidelines updated
Yes/No N Y Semi-annual monitoring reports
SG guidelines
SIP Directorate
Description: School grant guidelines cover the support for children with special needs
Name: Mechanism in place to closely monitor and mitigate dropouts
Text No timely mechanism since EMIS data is lagged by one school year
Dropout rates are determined using data disaggregated at the level of schools and used in policy making
Semi-annual monitoring reports
Survey of randomly selected representative sample of schools in SNNPR
EMIS Directorate
Description: Dropout will be calculated by comparing the results of the Oct/Nov 2016 school census questionnaire with that of the Oct/Nov 2017 school census questionnaires from the sample of randomly selected schools. This will also be done for the year 2017/18.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 31 of 63
Target Values Project Development Objective Indicators FY
Indicator Name Baseline YR1 End Target
Share of low performing primary schools in Afar region 46.50 37.10 25.70
At least 90 percent of O-class teachers in Benishangul-Gumuz region (> 447) trained on newly developed accelerated ECE curriculum package
0.00 90.00 90.00
At least 90 percent of O-class teachers in Gambella (> 160) trained on newly developed accelerated ECE curriculum package
0.00 0.00 90.00
Additionally appointed trained female primary school principals 3150.00 4170.00 6210.00
Utilization and report by each region on suplementary school grant support for children with special needs
1% supplementary school grant (no report on utilization)
detailed report on utilization of 2% supplementary school grant
detailed report on utilization of 4% supplementary school grant
Grade 1 dropout rates in SNNP region 25.20 17.00 13.00
Intermediate Results Indicators FY
Indicator Name Baseline YR1 End Target
Level 1 schools in Afar re-inspected N Y Y
New O-class curriculum package developed N Y Y
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 32 of 63
Indicator Name Baseline YR1 End Target
Female primary school principals trained 0.00 1020.00 3060.00
Special needs school grant guidelines updated N Y Y
Mechanism in place to closely monitor and mitigate dropouts No timely mechanism since EMIS data is lagged by one school year
Dropout rates are determined using data disaggregated at the level of schools and used in policy making
Dropout rates are determined using data disaggregated at the level of schools and used in policy making
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 33 of 63
Annex 1a: Disbursement Linked Indicators
50. A set of DLIs, which has been established in line with the results areas and against which disbursements
will be made, together with the disbursement calculation rules, are presented in Tables 1.1 and 1.2.
Table 1.1. Disbursement Linked Indicators (stretch indicators) under the GPE Grant
Stretch Indicators Baseline Target
Learning Outcomes Year 1 Year 2
1. Reducing the proportion of low performing primary schools (Level 1 in inspection standards) in Afar region
Baseline: 46.5% of primary schools in the Afar region inspected in 2013/14 and 2014/15 are at Level 1 (179 out of 385 schools inspected)
25.7% of inspected primary schools in the Afar region are at Level 1 (99 out of the 385 schools inspected in 2013/14 and 2014/15)
Target for Year 1: Upgrade 40 primary schools from Level 1 to Level 2 so that Level 1 schools are reduced to 37.1%
Target for Year 2: Upgrade an additional 40 primary schools from Level 1 to Level 2 to reach the cumulative number of 80 schools upgraded to Level 2 over the 2 year period to reach 25.7% of Level 1 school in the region.
Allocation amount US$2,500,000 US$2,500,000
Disbursement rule: Disbursement will be made after the Ministry of Education verifies and confirms the re-inspection results of Afar region in terms of number of schools upgraded. Disbursement will be pro-rated based on the results achieved.
Indicator verification process: All Level 1 schools in Afar inspected in 2013/14 and 2014/15 will be re-inspected at the end of the 2016/17 school year and those still on Level 1 will be re-inspected again in the 2017/18 school year. Re-inspection reports will confirm the number of schools that have been upgraded from Level 1 to Level 2 classification. The school inspection reports will be complemented with qualitative data and independent verification; verifying the authenticity of the results in school visits, observations, and interviews in randomly selected schools from the sample of upgraded schools.
2. Improving the learning environment of O-classes (pre-primary class) in two emerging regions by increasing the capacity of O-class facilitators to deliver an early childhood education curriculum package
Baseline: 0% of the O-class teachers in Benishangul-Gumuz (497) and Gambella (178) have received a 30-day training on a newly developed O-class curriculum package
Train > 90% of O-class teachers in Benishangul-Gumuz (> 447) and Gambella (> 160) on the newly developed accelerated ECE curriculum package
Target for Year 1: (I) >90% of O-class teachers in the Benishangul-Gumuz region completed training package (II) O-class national minimum teaching and
Target for Year 2: (I) >90% of O-class teachers in the Gambella region completed training package (II) >90% of the O-classes have
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 34 of 63
Stretch Indicators Baseline Target
learning material package defined and supplied for Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella
implemented the newly developed O-class curriculum package
Allocation amount US$4,000,000 US$1,000,000
Disbursement rule: Disbursement will be made upon: the MoE’s report on the development of the new O-class curriculum package (student curriculum materials, teacher training program and classroom supplies), delivery of the training programme (Benishangul-Gumuz region for 2016/17 and in Gambella for 2017/18) and a final analysis of the implementation of the O-class curriculum package in the targeted O-class settings. Disbursement will be pro-rated based on the results achieved.
Indicator verification process: The list of teachers who completed this training will be used for verification upon third party verification of results. Moreover, the MoE and the third-party verifier will report on the supply and utilization of the curriculum materials in each academic year. An adapted Early Childhood Education Environment Rating Scale (ECERS) will be considered for measuring improvements in the O-class learning environments.
Equity
3. Addressing the gender balance in school leadership by increasing the number of trained female primary school principals
Baseline: 3,150 females out of 33,358 principals (9.4%) in 2015/2016
Increasing the number of trained female school principals on a national level
Target for Year 1: Appoint an additional 1,020 trained female primary school principals to reach 4,170 females
Target for Year 2: Appoint an additional 2,040 trained female primary school principals to reach 6,210 females
Allocation amount US$1,500,000 US$3,500,000
Disbursement rule. Disbursement will be made upon the MoE reports of new primary school principals’ appointments that are female. Disbursement will be prorated based on the results achieved.
Indicator verification process: The new primary school principals’ appointment letters or personnel records will be compiled and reported by region. The reports will be complemented by independent verification on the appointment, training and deployment of the school principals.
4. Encouraging more inclusive learning environments by increasing the School Grant allocation to support special needs
Baseline: Each region received an additional 1% on top of their actual school grant allocation to specifically support special needs (2015/16)
Increasing the school grant allocation for special needs and its utilization for inclusive learning environments
Target for Year 1: Each region receives and uses an additional 2% on top of their actual school grant allocation to specifically
Target for Year 1: Each region receives and uses an additional 2% on top of their actual school grant allocation to
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 35 of 63
Stretch Indicators Baseline Target
support special needs specifically support special needs
Allocation amount US$1,500,000 US$1,500,000
Disbursement rule: Disbursement will be made upon the MoE report of school grant allocation and utilization for special needs in the 2016/17 and 2017/18 school years.
Indicator verification process: Reports on the utilization of the school grants for special needs by regions and by categories of students with special needs receiving the support will be undertaken by the end of the 2016/17 and 2017/18 school years and an independent verification will be carried out to confirm the achievements. The report will list beneficiary schools, beneficiary students by type of needs, and provide descriptive/qualitative data on changes observed in attitudes and awareness, support provided to students with special needs, and their educational attainment.
Efficiency
5. Reducing grade 1 dropout rates in the region with highest grade 1 dropout rate
Baseline: 25.2% dropout in grade 1 in SNNPR (226,141 out of 897,385 grade 1 students have dropped out) (Source: SNNPR Education Bureau’s ESDP V, 2015/16, page 215)
Reduce the grade 1 dropout rate in SNNPR to 13%
Target for Year 1: Reduction of dropout by 8.2 percentage points, that is, reducing the grade 1 dropout rate to 17% at the end of Ethiopian Fiscal Year 2009 (2016/17)
Target for Year 2: Reduction of the cumulative dropout rate by 12.2 percentage points so that the rate at the end of the academic year will be 13%.
Allocation amount US$5,000,000 $5,000,000
Disbursement rule. Disbursement will be made upon a sample survey report on grade 1 dropout rate in SNNPR. Disbursement is prorated based on the results achieved.
Indicator verification process. Because EMIS data is lagged by one school year (2016/17 abstract will only report 2015/2016 statistics), a separate grade 1 dropout monitoring mechanism will be used for the targeted region, including a survey of randomly selected representative sample of schools in SNNPR. A third-party firm will verify the achievement of targets for this indicator in cooperation with the EMIS Directorate. Dropout rates will be calculated by comparing the results of the October/November 2016 school census questionnaire with that of the October/November 2017 school census questionnaires from the sample of randomly selected schools. This will also be done for 2017/18.
Note: a. Year 1 and Year 2 correspond to the 2016/17 and 2017/18 school years. The Government has already jump-started implementation of the 2016/17 targets. As agreed with the ETWG and the GPE, the proposed grant will provide flexibility in the timing of the achievement of the stretch indicators, so that the residual targets could be transferred to Year 2 if these are not achieved in Year 1 of project implementation. This flexibility aims to ensure the successful achievement of the cumulative targets within the agreed implementation period.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 36 of 63
Table 1.2. Disbursement Calculation Rules DLI Disbursement-Linked Result (DLR) Withdrawal
Ceiling (expressed
in US$)
Disbursement Calculation Rule
DLI 1. Reducing the proportion of low performing primary schools (Level 1 in inspection standards) in Afar region
DLR 1.1: 40 primary schools upgraded from Level 1 to Level 2 so that the share of Level 1 schools is reduced to 37.1%
2,500,000
Disbursement will be pro-rated based on the number of upgraded schools (62,500 per school)
DLR 1.2: 40 primary schools upgraded additionally from Level 1 to Level 2 to reach the cumulative number of 80 schools upgraded to Level 2 over the 2-year period to reach 25.7% of Level 1 school in the region
2,500,000
DLI 2. Improving the learning environment of O-classes (pre-primary class) in two emerging regions by increasing the capacity of O-class facilitators to deliver an early childhood education curriculum package
DLR 2.1: More than 90% of O-class teachers (at least 448) in the Benishangul-Gumuz region completed training package; O-class national minimum teaching and learning material package defined and made available for the Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions
4,000,000
Disbursement will be pro-rated based on the number of trained teachers (8,929 per teacher trained)
DLR 2.2: More than 90% of O-class teachers (at least 161) in the Gambella region complete the training package; more than 90% of the O-classes have implemented the newly developed O-class curriculum package
1,000,000
Disbursement will be pro-rated based on the number of trained teachers (6,212 per teacher trained)
DLI 3. Addressing the gender balance in school leadership by increasing the number of trained female primary school principals
DLR 3.1: 1,020 trained female primary school principals additionally appointed to reach 4,170 female principals target
1,500,000
Disbursement will be pro-rated based on the number of additionally appointed female primary school principals (1,471 per female principal)
DLR 3.2: 2,040 trained female primary school principals additionally appointed to reach 6,210 female principals target
3,500,000
Disbursement will be pro-rated based on the number of additionally appointed female primary school principals (1,716 per female principal)
DLI 4. Encouraging more inclusive learning environments by increasing the School Grant allocation to support special needs
DLR 4.1: 2% top-up to regional school grant allocation received and utilized by each region to specifically support special needs
1,500,000
Disbursement will be made as a lump sum once the result is achieved
DLR 4.2: 4% top-up to regional school grant allocation received and utilized by each region to specifically support special needs
3,500,000
Disbursement will be made as a lump sum once the result is achieved
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 37 of 63
DLI 5. Reducing Grade 1 dropout rates in the SNNP region
DLR 5.1: Grade 1 dropout rate reduced from 25.2% to 17% at the end of 2016/17 (8.2 percentage points reduction)
5,000,000
Disbursement will be pro-rated based on the result achieved (609,757 per 1 percentage point reduction in dropouts)
DLR 5.2: Grade 1 dropout rate reduced from 17% to 13% at the end of 2017/18 (4 percentage points reduction)
5,000,000
Disbursement will be pro-rated based on the result achieved (1,250,000 per 1 percentage point reduction in dropouts)
Note: Year 1 and Year 2 correspond to the 2016/17 and 2017/18 school years. The Government has already jump-started implementation of the 2016/17 targets. As agreed with the ETWG and the GPE, the proposed grant will provide flexibility in the timing of the achievement of the stretch indicators, so that the residual targets could be transferred to Year 2 if these are not achieved in Year 1 of project implementation. This flexibility aims to ensure the successful achievement of the cumulative targets within the agreed implementation period.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 38 of 63
Annex 1b: Reporting and Verification of the Attainment of DLIs
51. The proposed results-based financing mechanism (DLI approach) requires that the GPE funding would reimburse the eligible expenditures based on the achievement of the agreed results. The DLIs are independent of each other for reimbursement purposes. The agreed results have been designed cautiously to ensure feasibility within the available time frame while still demonstrating real improvement. The attainment of DLIs will be verified by the CSA and/or other independent verification firm, as agreed by the ETWG. The MoE reports on the four DLIs for learning outcomes and equity shall be made available by June 15 of the relevant school year. The independent verification study report on the fifth DLI for efficiency shall be made available no later than October 31, 2017 (for Year 1) and October 31, 2018 (for Year 2). Whenever relevant, verification protocols would include unannounced visits by the independent firm to a random subsample of schools for direct data collection (Table 1.3). Disbursements would be made in proportion to the level of achievement of the DLIs.
Table 1.3. DLI Reporting and Verification Protocol
DLI
Detailed Definition and List of Documents to be Submitted as Part of the Withdrawal Process
Documents and Information Available
upon Request for Verification
Learning Outcomes
1. Reducing the proportion of low-performing primary schools (Level 1 in inspection standards) in Afar region
This DLI will be met when 25.7% of inspected primary schools in the Afar region are at Level 1 (99 out of the 385 schools inspected in 2013/14 and 2014/15) Data Sources: The MoE reports
List of Level 1 schools in the Afar region at baseline
Report from the General Education Inspection Directorate (GEID) on status of Level 1 baseline schools by school quality standards and areas for improvement
List of schools upgraded from Level I
Report of results of re-inspection of schools from the GEID by school quality standards, including detailed analysis of achievements
Independent verification
Verification of the MoE report data accuracy through desk reviews and field visits, observations, and interviews in randomly selected schools from a chosen sample of upgraded schools; verifying the authenticity of the results
Lists of schools
Inspection and re-inspection reports from the GEID (with details of status of compliance to each of the school quality standards)
Independent firm report
2. Improving the learning environment of O-classes (pre-primary class) in two emerging regions by increasing the capacity of
This DLI will be met when > 90% of O-class teachers in Benishangul-Gumuz (> 447) and Gambella (> 160) are trained on and are delivering the newly developed accelerated ECE curriculum package in their respective schools; improving the learning environment of O-
Training materials
Training schedules
List of teachers who completed the training
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 39 of 63
O-class facilitators to deliver an early childhood education curriculum package
classes in these regions Data Sources: MoE report:
Training materials for the MoE intensive O-class teacher training program on cognitive development, language and communication and socio-emotional development (on the basis of a newly developed 30-day training guide)
Training schedules and list of teachers who completed the training and their results on the post-training assessment will be submitted by the Benishangul- Gumuz REB and the Gambella REB
Supply data of class-room material for the implementation of the newly developed accelerated ECE curriculum package
Independent verification:
Verification of the MoE report data accuracy through desk reviews
The third party verifier will report on the supply and utilization of the curriculum materials in each academic year. For the verification ECERS will be considered for measuring improvements in the O-class learning environments.
Report on supply of the ECE curriculum package meterials
Independent verification results report
Equity
3. Improving the gender balance in school leadership by increasing the number of trained female school principals
This DLI will be met when the number of trained female school principals on a national level increase by 3,060 female primary school principals. Data sources: The MoE report
Training schedules and list of principals who completed the training and their results on the post-training assessment
List of additional 3,060 female primary school principals
New school principal appointment letters and/or personnel records compiled and reported by regions
The MoE report on situation with the gender balance in school leadership
Independent verification. Verification of the MoE report data accuracy through desk reviews and field visits; confirming the appointment, training, and deployment of female school principals
List of female principals who completed the training
List of additional female primary school principals
Appointment records
Independent firm report
4. Encouraging more inclusive learning environments by increasing
This DLI will be met when an additional 2% in 2016/17 and 4% in 2017/18 of school grants are used for the education of children with special needs and a report
List of schools with details of allocation and utilization of
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 40 of 63
the School Grant allocation to support special needs
is prepared on relevant school grant utilization in 2016/17 and 2017/18 school year in all regions, encouraging more inclusive learning environments. Data Sources: The MoE report
Reports on the utilization of the school grant for special needs by regions and by categories of students with special needs receiving the support will be commissioned by the end of the 2016/17 and 2017/18 school years, respectively. The report will list beneficiary schools and beneficiary students by type of needs and provide descriptive/qualitative data on changes observed in attitudes and awareness, support provided to students with special needs, and their educational attainment.
Independent verification
Verification of the MoE report data accuracy through desk reviews and field visits
special needs school grant by regions
Independent firm report
Efficiency
5. Reducing grade 1 dropout rates in the SNNP region
This DLI will be met upon reduction of grade 1 dropout to 13% in SNNPR. Data sources: A survey of sample schools
A separate grade 1 dropout monitoring mechanism will be used for the targeted region, including a survey of randomly selected representative sample of schools in SNNPR.
Dropout rates will be calculated by comparing the results of the October/November 2016 school census questionnaire with that of the October/November 2017 school census questionnaires from the sample of randomly selected schools. This will also be done for the 2017/18 school year.
Independent verification:
A third-party firm will verify the achievement of targets for this indicator in cooperation with the EMIS Directorate.
EMIS baseline data
Independent firm report
Note: a. Supplies are ensured through the sister operation GEQIP II.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 41 of 63
Annex 2: Detailed Project Description
52. The project will support achievement of the development objective of contributing to improvement of learning conditions in primary schools in targeted regions, including in the preprimary classes. The proposed grant is an IPF with a results-based financing modality under which disbursements will be linked to the achievement of pre-agreed results in the three pillars/dimensions of (a) learning outcomes; (b) equity; and (c) efficiency in line with the ESDP V and requirements of the GPE new funding model. Component 1: Improving Learning Conditions in Primary Schools in Targeted Regions (US$10 million or 33.3 percent of total Grant amount - to be disbursed against the achievement of DLIs) Results area 1.1: Reducing the proportion of low-performing primary schools (Level 1 in inspection standards) in Afar region with highest share of these schools
53. Ethiopia has developed a system of measuring school performance through inspection. Ethiopia’s school inspection system includes annual school self-assessment and external inspection every three years. The inspection framework consists of 7 standards on school inputs, 14 standards on processes and 5 standards on outcomes. Based on the aggregate percentage score in these 26 standards, schools are classified into 4 levels of performance, with Level 3 and Level 4 meeting the national standards. Figure 2.1 presents the standards in the input, process, and output domains.
54. Since school Inspections started three years ago in Ethiopia, there have not been many systematic interventions nationally to support schools that are below standard. Any efforts by regions were neither well-coordinated nor properly documented. Furthermore, their impact has not been monitored or evaluated systematically. The project proposes to test a comprehensive intervention model in the Afar region which has one of the highest shares of low-performing primary schools in the country according to the 2006–2007 Ethiopian calendar inspection data.
55. Improving minimum service standards for 80 primary schools from Level 1 to Level 2 in the Afar region also poses a significant stretch (a key requirement of the GPE new funding model), as it requires a concerted effort and investment as well as overcoming persistent challenges hampering education delivery in the region. It is expected that the lessons from Afar will inform the nation as a whole on how to improve substandard schools. Specifically, the findings from this pilot will be used to design an intervention strategy that will be scaled up nationally. In this regard, the main output of this intervention is not just the upgrading of 80 Level 1 schools in Afar; in fact, a very important output is a comprehensive intervention model to support Level 1 schools nationally, which is developed based on evidence and tested in one of the most disadvantaged regions of the country.
56. To achieve this target, School Improvement Plans for Level 1 targeted schools will be collected and analyzed and additional actions implemented to improve their performance on standards that were identified as inadequate in the inspection results of 2015/16. The school inspection standards are to be reviewed and amended by the MoE in 2018. As such, the implementation time frame for this stretch indicator is set at two years so that the schools that will be supported in 2016/17 and 2017/18 are supported and evaluated against the current standards by which they were measured.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 42 of 63
Figure 2.1. School Classification Standards
57. Disbursement will be made after the MoE verifies and confirms the re-inspection results of the Afar
region with regard to the number of upgraded schools. Disbursement will be prorated based on the
results achieved. All of the 179 schools found to be at Level 1 in Afar in the 2013/14 and 2014/15
inspections will be re-inspected by the regional inspection team and the General Inspection Directorate
at the end of the 2016/17 academic year. Those still remaining at Level 1 will be re-inspected again in
the 2017/18 academic year. Re-Inspection reports will confirm the number of schools that have been
upgraded from Level 1 to Level 2 classification. The school inspection reports will be complemented with
qualitative data and independent verification, verifying the authenticity of the results in school visits,
observations, and interviews in randomly selected schools from the sample of upgraded schools.
Inputs Standards (25%)
Standard 1 - Classrooms, education facilities, textbooks, and other recourses
Standard 2 - Financial resources
Standard 3 - Qualified directors, teachers and staff
Standard 4 - Conducive teaching-learning environment
Standard 5 - Education development army
Standard 6 - School’s vision and mission
Standard 7 - Preparation of participatory School Improvement Plan
Process Standards (35%)
Standard 8 - Students’ learning and participation
Standard 9 - Students’ progress in learning
Standard 10 - Students’ attitude toward school
Standard 11 - Teaching and lesson planning and use of resources
Standard 12 - Teachers’ knowledge of subject
Standard 13 - Use of modern teaching methods
Standard 14 - Support for female and special need students
Standard 15 - CPD for teachers, directors and supervisors
Standard 16 - Teamwork by directors, teachers, and students
Standard 17 - Knowledge and effective application of curriculum
Standard 18 - Assessment and feedback to students
Standard 19 - Monitoring of the school plan implementation
Standard 20 - Proper utilization of resources
Standard 21 - Partnership with parents and the community
Output Standards (40%)
Standard 22 - National education goals on access, internal efficiency, and education sector goals
Standard 23 - Classroom and regional and national exam results
Standard 24 - Students’ behavior and values
Standard 25 - Communication and interaction among the school teachers, leaders, and support staff
Standard 26 - Support and participation of parents and local community
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 43 of 63
Results area 1.2. Improving the learning environment of O-classes (pre-primary class) in Benishangul-
Gumuz and Gambella regions by increasing the capacity of O-class teachers to deliver an early
childhood education curriculum package
58. A study on O-class provision in four regions of Ethiopia has found that the age profile of O-class teachers ranges from 20 to 59 years. The majority of teachers have completed grade 10 or grade 12, with varying degrees of experience and little training in ECE. Observations of classroom activities show that frontal teaching dominates the classroom interaction, with limited contact encouraged between students. Low teacher competencies and a lack of classroom learning materials were cited as the biggest barriers to ensuring children’s school readiness. This same study found a high level of commitment from parents in supporting their young children’s development and readiness for school. The Government has recognized the importance of investment in O-class teacher capacity as a key strategic intervention which, coupled with the efforts made through the health sector to reach families, will bring about improved attainment and learning outcomes in later years.
59. The proposed grant will also support the development of the new ECE curriculum package for preprimary O-classes, training of preprimary teachers in the Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions on the new curriculum and its implementation in the targeted O-class settings. The lessons from these pilots will be applied during the envisaged nationwide rollout of the new ECE curriculum. Piloting this activity in the Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions will provide important lessons to other two emerging regions and to the nation as a whole. The selection of the Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions has also been made in light of their strong engagement and efforts, to date, in the design and implementation of formal and non-formal early childhood care and education services. Selection of these regions has been endorsed by the ETWG and the GPE Board.
60. In light of the scope of the challenges in the sector, the proposed project and the sister operation GEQIP II complement each other to strengthen the results for the overall sector while maintaining clearly distinguishable results attributable to each project. Disbursement will be made upon the MoE’s report on the implementation of O-class curriculum package in the targeted O-class settings in the Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. In addition to the training of teachers, a minimum package of locally available preprimary teaching/learning materials will be defined and made available alongside the teacher training program under support of GEQIP II.
61. Disbursement will be made upon the MoE’s report on the development of an in-service O-class teacher training program and the number of O-class teachers having successfully completed the newly developed intensive training program in the Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Specifically, the MoE, with support from the United Nations Children's Fund, NGOs, and World Bank, has developed a detailed curriculum package for O-class teachers, basing this on a successfully piloted Accelerated School Readiness initiative. Successful completion of the training will be determined based on the results of a post-training assessment that will be administered at the end of the intensive training. The use of the adapted ECERS and Measuring Early Learning Environment tools will be considered for outcome verification purposes. Disbursement will be prorated based on the results achieved. The list of teachers who successfully completed the training will also be used for verification.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 44 of 63
Component 2: Strengthening Equity and Inclusion in Education (US$10 million or 33.3 percent of total Grant amount - to be disbursed against the achievement of DLIs) Results area 2.1. Addressing the gender balance in school leadership by increasing the number of trained female primary school principals
62. This results area will focus on increasing female school principals as a means of demonstrating an equitable education profession and a gender inclusive system. This is considered a transformational target in light of the societal barriers which women face in the education profession in Ethiopia and will directly support the commitments to improve gender balance within the civil service as articulated in the national Growth and Transformation Plan 2. Increased participation of women in leadership roles is expected to (a) provide girls with role models to motivate them to excel in their studies as well as aspire to hold leadership positions and (b) make schools more sensitive to gender-specific needs and provide girls with additional support. While there is limited evidence on the direct impact of female school leadership as compared to their male peers, a meta-analysis undertaken in 1992 indicated a significantly higher tendency of female school leaders to implement democratic, participatory management styles as well as a somewhat higher task-oriented style (Eagly Eagly, Makhijani, and Klonsky et.al. 1992)6.
63. There is also evidence that suggests that the presence of women in leadership roles in schools contributes to sensitivity within schools for the wellbeing of adolescent girls. The Government believes that there are capable female teachers currently in schools who could be promoted to hold leadership positions, once they are provided with effective short-term leadership training. Regional governments are also committed to supporting and achieving this goal. The efforts toward greater gender balance in school leadership will be promoted through prioritization of women applicants for school leadership training and their deployment/placement for new openings of school principal positions. To this end, a quota for women trainees has already been allocated to regions for leadership training positions. The appointment of newly recruited and trained women school leaders will be done in newly opened schools and as replacement to principals and deputy principals who leave their positions (for example, due to recruitment to other education offices at woreda, zone, and region level, or turnover).
64. Disbursement will be made upon the MoE reports of new school principal appointments who are women. Disbursement will be prorated based on the results achieved. The new school principal appointment letters or personnel records will be compiled and reported by region and will serve as an evidence of attainment of the DLI. Results area 2.2. Encouraging more inclusive learning environments by increasing the school grant allocation to support children with special needs
65. The proposed intervention will address many of the above constraints by providing an innovative financing mechanism to support special need students. The MoE committed to increase the per capita school grant for special need students from ETB 50 to ETB 100. This commitment has already been met in the 2015/16 academic year and 1 percent top-up to the school grant was disbursed to all regions to create a more inclusive learning environment. Although it was reported by the REBs that the amount
6 Eagly, Alice. H., Mona G. Makhijani,, and Bruce G. Klonsky. 1992. “Gender and the Evaluation of Leaders: A Meta-analysis.”
Psychological Bulletin 111: 3–22.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 45 of 63
allocated is too little to cover costs needed by the schools accommodating children with special needs, this financing proved to be instrumental in raising the awareness for special educational needs and helping regions implement different strategies to strengthen their inclusive education programs.
66. For example, in the Afar region, the funding was used to invite medical experts to assess the level of hearing and visual impairment before making a decision on which hearing or visual aids are needed to be provided to students. Other regions used the available funding to provide learning materials such as books, pens, and pencils to the students with special needs. The additional school grant for special needs students also raised awareness among parents, teachers, and school leaders. The school grant evaluation shows that these stakeholders appreciated the Government’s effort in making school grants available and targeted at students with special needs. Education is one of the most effective ways to break the cycle of discrimination that children with disabilities experience. The GPE promotes inclusive education to ensure that all children can go to school. It is one of the focus areas for the GPE and thus has been included.
67. The proposed intervention will increase the top-up for special needs to 2 percent in the first year and 4 percent in the second year, which will help provide regions with additional funding to meaningfully support special needs students. It is expected that this will also contribute toward a positive trend in students with special needs enrolled in schools. Beyond the increased financial investment, the big stretch of the intervention maybe the attitudinal change it is likely to trigger. The commitment to increase financing for inclusive education through the regular MoE systems presents a move toward a more inclusive education system, a rights-based and social model of disability, instead of viewing the disabled as objects of charity left to ad hoc and pilot interventions by NGOs and well-wishers. They will be seen as rights holders whose right to education has to be met by the regular education system and schools.
68. Regions are encouraged to be innovative in the allocation and utilization of these additional grants. As part of internal verification process, regions will need to provide a report on (a) amounts of funds received by the regions; (b) allocation modality and rationale (how the allocation was made, to which schools and what was the justification for the targeting); (c) summary information on beneficiaries (schools that benefit from the special needs school grant and students with special needs who benefit from the grant with breakdown by gender and types of special needs); and (d) analysis of how the school grant for special needs has been used and what difference this has made (attitudes/awareness, more conducive learning environment, attendance/absenteeism, learning outcomes and student well-being, and so on). Reports on the utilization of the school grants for special needs by regions and by categories of students with special needs receiving the support will be undertaken by the end of each school year within the two-year implementation period. An independent verification will be carried out to confirm the achievements and authenticity of results. Component 3: Improving Internal Efficiency of Primary Schools in SNNPR (US$10 million or 33.3 percent of total Grant amount - to be disbursed against the achievement of DLIs) Results area 3.1. Reducing Grade 1 dropout rates in Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples region with the highest grade 1 dropout rate
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 46 of 63
69. Although Ethiopia has made encouraging progress in reducing dropout rates in the last few years, the dropout rate, especially in grade 1, is still stubbornly high. This is particularly true in SNNPR (with the highest grade 1 dropout rate in 2013/14 at 25.2 percent). SNNPR is also the third most populous region which means that in absolute terms the number of grade 1 dropouts is very large and contributes substantially to the national average.
70. This results area reflects the outcome of a broader set of efforts supported both through the proposed grant and the GEQIP II interventions (and its SIP in particular). For example, the Government’s efforts to cover school grants for children in preprimary classes will contribute to their successful transition and retention in grade 1. This serves as a particularly ambitious and transformational target, considering the complexity of addressing the multiple factors (home, school, and community related) which have an impact on children’s retention through their first year of primary schooling. A number of strategies will be supported through this grant to help improve attendance, including sensitization of communities on the importance of student participation/attendance in early years of schooling, improvement of education quality through teacher training, and the provision of textbooks and other learning materials (in partnership with GEQIP II).
71. The project will also strengthen links between the SIP and the inspectorate system, thereby reinforcing a focus on student learning outcomes through improved school attendance/completion. School inspectorate results will be analyzed and used, with a particular focus at the woreda and school level, to implement specific actions required across the different school community contexts in SNNPR. The final intervention model and the processes of implementation and monitoring are expected to be extremely informative to the Government and other regions in their effort to reduce the dropout rate in early primary grades and beyond.
72. Disbursement will be made upon a sample survey report on grade 1 dropout rate in SNNPR, to be conducted in 2017 and again in 2018. Disbursement is prorated based on the results achieved. A third-party firm will verify the achievement of targets for this indicator in cooperation with the EMIS Department. Because EMIS data is lagged by one school year (the 2016/17 ESAA will only report on 2015/2016 statistics), a separate grade 1 dropout monitoring mechanism will be used for the targeted region. This will involve a survey of randomly selected representative sample schools in SNNPR. The dropout rates will be calculated by comparing the results of the school census questionnaire from October/November 2016 with that of October/November 2017 from the sample of randomly selected schools. This will also be done for the 2017/18 school year.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 47 of 63
Annex 3: Implementation, Financial Management and Procurement Arrangements
73. The project will be implemented over a two-year period by the MoE of Ethiopia. The ministry would
have the overall responsibility for project coordination and monitoring of implementation progress. At the federal level, the MoE has established two task forces to supervise the work for the attainment of DLIs (Figure 3.1). Task Force 1, led by the SIP Directorate, is in charge of activities required to achieve DLIs 1, 4, and 5. The Task Force 2, led by the Teacher Development Directorate together with the Curriculum Directorate, is in charge of the efforts under DLIs 2 and 3. In turn, the REBs and woredas have created task forces for implementation of DLIs as well as to monitor progress.
Figure 3.1. Implementation Arrangements
74. The performance-based nature of the project and its strong reliance on timely and accurate information
exchange will imply regular interaction among the key MoE units, the MoFEC, and the World Bank. To ensure the smooth coordination of project implementation and communication among the major actors, the GCO will act as the main liaison with the World Bank and will be responsible for (a) monitoring the achievement of the DLIs and (b) compiling and delivering the evidences of compliance to the World Bank and the ETWG. Specific implementation arrangements will be reflected in the POM.
Minister of Education
State Minister for General Education
GCO
Task Force 1 led by the SIP Directorate
Task Force 2 led by the Teacher Development
Directorate and Curriculum Directorate
REBs
Zone Education Office
Woreda Education Office
School
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 48 of 63
Financial Management
75. An FM assessment was conducted in accordance with the Financial Management Practices Manual for World Bank-financed investment operations issued on February 4, 2015, and the supporting guidelines. In conducting the assessment, the World Bank team has reviewed the experiences of GEQIP two phases implemented by the MoE. Furthermore, for the recurrent costs at the MoE, the experience with ministry has been taken into account. This project is a result based financing and hence the FM arrangement outlined in the following paragraphs covers the FM arrangements around the EEPs as well as the arrangements agreed with the Government after receiving the financing to ensure proper accountability over resources.
76. The FM assessment considers the degree to which (a) the budgeted expenditures are realistic, prepared with due regard to relevant policies, and executed in an orderly and predictable manner; (b) reasonable records are maintained and financial reports are produced and disseminated for decision making, management, and reporting; (c) adequate funds are available to finance the project; (d) there are reasonable controls over project funds; and (e) independent and competent audit arrangements are in place. The assessment also included the identification of key perceived FM risks that may affect program implementation and proceeded to develop mitigation measures against such risks. Country Context
77. The GoE has been implementing a comprehensive PFM reform with support from donor partners, including the World Bank, for the last 12 years, through the Expenditure Management and Control sub-program of the Government’s Civil Service Reform Program. This is being supported by the closed IDA-financed Public Sector Capacity-building Support Program, the ongoing PBS program, and other donor financing, as well as the Government’s own financing. These programs have focused on strengthening the basics of PFM systems: budget preparation, revenue administration, budget execution, internal controls, cash management, accounting, reporting, and auditing.
78. The 2014 Ethiopia Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) PFM performance measurement framework assessment is under way and draft reports issued for the federal as well as Addis Ababa city administration, Oromia, Amhara, Tigray, Somali, and SNNP regions. The 2010 PEFA PFM performance measurement framework assessment covered the federal government in the form of ministries and agencies as well as five regions. It found that Ethiopia has made significant progress in strengthening PFM at both federal and regional levels, especially in budgeting and accounting reform. The budget is reasonably realistic and is reasonably implemented as intended. Other areas of improvement are increased budgetary documentation submitted to House of Peoples’ Representatives, strengthened reporting on donor projects and programs, improved transparency in intergovernmental fiscal relations through greater timeliness in the provision of information to regional governments on the size of the budget subsidies that they will receive, and improved access by the public to key fiscal information through audit reports. Overall, the performance of external audit has improved due to increased coverage and a lessening of the time needed to audit annual financial statements. Audits conducted by the Office of the Federal Auditor General (OFAG) generally adhere to International Organization for Supreme Audit Institutions auditing standards and focus on significant issues. The Government needs to make available to the public information on the incomes and expenditures of
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 49 of 63
extra-budgetary operations. 79. Weaknesses were noted in internal audit which necessitate increased focus on systems audit and
increasing management response to audit findings. Further strengthening of the internal audit function is a key challenge. The full rollout of the Integrated Budget and Expenditure (IBEX) has helped strengthen the quality of in-year budget execution reports by including information on revenue and expenditures, financial assets, and liabilities, but excluding information on donor-financed projects and programs. Project FM arrangements Budgeting
80. Budget preparation: The project will apply the Government’s budget system, recorded in the Government’s budget manual. It has been decided that the EEP for the project will be recurrent costs in the MoE. The MoE uses the regular budget procedures of the GoE. These procedures reflect the fiscal decentralization structure of the Government and the budgets are processed and approved at all levels. The Government’s chart of account accommodates budgets and expenditures for recurrent costs. The annual budget is included in the annual budget proclamations of the MoFEC.
81. For the funds to be received by the MoE upon achievement of the results, the MoE will prepare an annual plan and share with the World Bank and the MoFEC according to the result areas agreed to be financed in this result-based financing operation and other activities. The annual work plan and budget will be incorporated within the MoE’s overall annual plan and submitted to the MoFEC for inclusion and approval.
82. Budget control and monitoring. Budget control is needed to ensure that the resources are being spent as planned and expenditures are not exceeding budget. With regard to budget monitoring aspects for the EEP, the normal government system requires monthly reporting from lower to higher levels. In addition, the semiannual interim financial reports (IFRs) sent to the donor partners (through the World Bank-financed ESPES) also incorporate budget monitoring reports where actual performances are compared with the budget and explanations will be provided for significant or major variances. On the other hand, the MoE will prepare budget variance analysis on a quarterly basis as part of its IFR, which compares the actual expenditure against the approved annual work plan and budget for the activities it is implementing. Accounting
83. Accounting procedures: The Government’s accounting policies and procedures will be used for accounting for the project. The GoE follows a double entry bookkeeping system and modified cash basis of accounting. This is documented in the Government’s accounting manual. This has been implemented at the federal level and in regions. Accounting centers for project funds would include (a) MoE; (b) MoFEC; (c) universities; (d) BoFEDs; (e) REBs; and (f) CTEs. All these institutions would maintain accounting books and records and prepare financial reports in line with the Government’s accounting system.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 50 of 63
84. Accounting system: The computerized Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS) is now operational at the MoE. All the EEP are recorded using the IFMIS. Reports are generated monthly by the MoE and sent to the MoFEC.
85. For the implementation of the activities on annual basis, the implementers will continue to use IBEX as is the case now in GEQIP II.
86. Accounting staff: The Channel One Programs Coordination Directorate (COPCD) of the MoFEC is managing the GEQIP II and will continue to do so for this project. The data on the EEP will be prepared by the MoE and verified by the MoFEC before it is submitted to the World Bank. The two accountants working on GEQIP II will continue to work on this project. Furthermore, at the MoE and regional BoFEDs, accountants have been recruited for the GEQIP II who will take on the responsibility for this project. Woredas, REBs and CTEs will continue to use their existing staff for the project. Internal Control and Internal Unit Arrangements
87. Internal control arrangements: Internal control comprises the whole system of control, financial or otherwise, established by management to (a) carry out the project activities in an orderly and efficient manner; (b) ensure adherence to policies and procedures; (c) ensure maintenance of complete and accurate accounting records; and (d) safeguard the assets of the project. Regular government systems and procedures would be followed, including those relating to authorization, recording, and custody controls. Through the implementation of GEQIP I and II, the MoE has demonstrated good internal control procedure over program resources.
88. For the EEP, the audit report of the MoE indicated weakness in the area of follow up of advances and payables, cut off issues, underutilization of budget and so on. The MoE is monitoring these findings to find timely solution by preparing action plan and following it up regularly.
Internal Audit Arrangements
89. Internal Audit function: This is an area that is generally considered to be the weakest link in the PFM system of the country. The PEFA as well as the lessons from the past and current operations note that there are still challenges in this area of internal audit, culminating from structural, capacity and number, and other issues. Regarding the review on EEPs, there is an internal audit department within the MoE which makes review of the expenditures on a regular basis. There is a regular follow up and reporting mechanism in place. Funds Flow Arrangements
90. EEP: The Eligible Expenditure Program for the project will be recurrent costs in the MoE. The budget codes to be considered part of the EEP are clearly disclosed in the grant agreement. The Government will be reimbursed upon presentation of the EEP and achievement of the results. Moreover, as agreed with the Government, the reimbursed resource will be directed to the education sector for implementing the activities already disclosed in the PAD and based on the detailed annual work plan to
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 51 of 63
be prepared by the MoE. Accordingly, the project will follow the Government’s channel one fund flow mechanism where by resources will flow from the MoFEC to the MoE and regions for implementation of agreed up on activities and reimbursement of achieved results.
91. Bank accounts: Although payments will be made for the reimbursement of recurrent costs in the MoE, the reimbursed resource will be provided to the MoE to implement activities in the education sector. There will be a Designated Account for this project. The MoFEC will open a Designated Account in U.S. dollar on behalf of the MoE. Funds received from the World Bank can be transferred to a local currency account to make payments in that currency. This account will be opened at the National Bank of Ethiopia. Funds sent to the MoE account will be used for activities identified by the MoE on its annual work plan.
92. There will be at least two signatories required for each approved payment from the account, subject to national procedures/guidelines. The two signatories should come from two categories. The first category should consist of the project’s management and the second, the staff accounting for the project’s funds. The signatories will be communicated to IDA together with the bank account details after the signing of the project but before the project’s effectiveness.
93. Funds flow arrangements. To access funds from the project, the MoE, through the MoFEC, will submit the report of the independent verification entity to the World Bank regarding the achievement of results. The information submitted to the World Bank should be accompanied with a reimbursement withdrawal application. There will be advance (advances) provided to the project. For disbursements, the fund flow arrangement will be as follows:
The MoE will compile the achieved results and certify that it has the required background information in its archives to document the achievements of the results.
The MoE will submit the report of the independent verification entity to the World Bank regarding the achievement of the project results in the form of DLIs as well as evidence of expenditures in the EEP.
Withdrawals will be made in one up to ten tranches and in amounts not exceeding the total of the ceilings per each respective DLI provided in the PAD, subject to submission to IDA of evidence satisfactory to IDA that the following DLIs have been achieved.
Thereafter, the World Bank will disburse the agreed funds for achieved results to the bank account. The disbursement will be made through submission of the withdrawal application with supporting evidence of the EEPs to be reimbursed for the achieved DLIs.
Funds Flow
94. Funds will be disbursed to the Designated Account managed by the MoFEC for this project. The fund will be disbursed in U.S. dollar. Funds from the foreign currency nominated account can be transferred to the account denominated in local currency to make payments related to approve activities in the Project Implementation Plan. The project funds received in the U.S. dollar bank account will be used only for approved activities in the Project Implementation Plan. Figure 3.2 shows the funds flow arrangement.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 52 of 63
Figure 3.2. Funds Flow Diagram
Disbursements Arrangements
95. Disbursement will be based on reimbursement of certified EEPs supported with achieved DLIs and other relevant documentation. If ineligible expenditures are found to have been made from the Designated Account, the Recipient will be obligated to refund the same. IDA will have the right, as reflected in the terms of the Financing Agreement, to suspend disbursement of the funds if significant conditions, including reporting requirements, are not complied with. Additional details regarding disbursement are provided in the disbursement letters. Financial Reporting Arrangements
96. Two financial reports will be prepared for this project, as described in the following paragraphs. The format of the IFR has been agreed with IDA during negotiations. i. For the EEP, the MoFEC will submit the report quarterly after validating the report received from
the MoE. The statement of reimbursable EEPs which should be extracted from the official report of the MoE submitted to the MoFEC and cleared by the country FM Specialist of the World Bank will be submitted within 75 days of the quarter end.
ii. The MoE, in collaboration with the MoFEC, will prepare and share quarterly IFRs to the World Bank within 75 days of the quarter end for the activities planned and implemented in this project. The statement of source and uses of project fund will be produced by the MoFEC as is currently being done for GEQIP II. The content of this report will be the statement of the source and uses of fund,; detailed Statement of Uses of Funds by project activity, as documented in the PAD and based on annual work plan; and bank statements for the Designated Account (both U.S. dollar and local currency) and their reconciliation statements.
Project transactions paid in or local currency (to regions and CTEs)
Designated Account (in local currency) at the MoE and the MoFEC
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 53 of 63
97. The MoFEC should submit a written commitment of the Government to not reduce the normal recurrent budget allocation of the MoE until the project is completed.
98. The MoFEC, as is done for all Channel One projects, will prepare annual accounts within three months after the end of the financial year in accordance with accounting standards acceptable to IDA. Thereafter, it will be responsible for ensuring that the reports are audited and submitted to IDA within six months after the end of the financial year. Detail external audit requirements will be discussed in the next section. External Audit Arrangements
99. The external audit of the EEP will be done by the OFAG. The audits should be carried out in accordance with International Standards on Auditing. Audit Terms of reference has been agreed during negotiation. There will be two sets of audit reports as described below: i. Audit report of the EEP: to ensure that the EEPs are audited, the audit of the MoE conducted by
the Office of Federal Auditor General (OFAG) will be used. This report will be readily available within 9 months of the fiscal year end. This audit report needs to be submitted to the World Bank timely and will be used as a verification means of the EEPs for this project. This will be a covenant in the grant agreement.
ii. Audit report of the Project: This audit will provide assurance that the resources planned to be received under the project are audited as well as the expenditure in relation to the activities on the annual work plan. This audit can be done as part of the GEQIP II audit but with separate disclosure of the financial statements and audit opinion. The audit report can be shared to the World Bank along with GEQIP II audit report.
100. The audit reports will be publicly disclosed by the World Bank in accordance with the World Bank
disclosure policy. FM Action Plan
101. The action plan, in Table 3.1, indicates the actions to be taken for the project to strengthen its FM system and the dates by which they are due to be completed.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 54 of 63
Table 3.1. Action Plan
Action When Who
Budget: Prepare detailed annual work plan and budget for the fund received for the project and proclaim the budget under the name of the MoE
Annual the MoE
Staff: Assign the accountants currently working on GEQIP II at the MoE and the MoFEC to oversee this project. Increase staffing level if work load seems to increase.
Within 1 months after effectiveness
the MoFEC and the MoE
Submit a written commitment of the Recipient of not reducing the recurrent budget allocation of the MoE until the Project is completed (Schedule 2, Section V of the Grant Agreement)
Within 1 months after effectiveness
the MoFEC
Internal audit: internal audit units should include the project in their annual work plan
During Implementation
the MoFEC and the MoE
Annual financial audit report:
Annual audit report for the EEP
Annual audit report for the project by the MoE
Annually (standard covenant)
The MoFEC and the MoE
Financial Covenants
102. The financial covenants are the standard ones, as stated in the Financing Agreement Schedule 2, Section II (B) on FM, Financial Reports, and Audits and Section 4.09 of the General Conditions. Accordingly, for this project, the covenants are the following: i. The Recipient will ensure that a financial management system is maintained in accordance with
the provisions of Section 2.07 of the Standard Conditions. ii. The Recipient will prepare and furnish to the World Bank not later than seventy-five (75) days after
the end of each fiscal quarter, interim unaudited financial reports for the Project covering the fiscal quarter, in form and substance satisfactory to the World Bank.
iii. The Recipient will have its Financial Statements audited in accordance with the provisions of Section 2.07(b) of the Standard Conditions. Each audit of the Financial Statements shall cover the period of one (1) fiscal year of the Recipient. The audited Financial Statements for each such period shall be furnished to the World Bank not later than nine (9) months after the end of such period.
Implementation Support Plan
103. The FM implementation support missions will be carried out twice a year for the project. Implementation support will also include desk reviews such as the review of the IFRs and audit reports. The FM implementation support will be an integrated part of the project’s implementation reviews. Conclusion
104. The conclusion of the assessment is that the FM arrangements in place meet IDA’s minimum requirements under OP/BP 10.00 and therefore are adequate to provide, with reasonable assurance, accurate and timely information on the status of the project required by IDA. The overall FM residual risk rating of the project is Moderate.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 55 of 63
Procurement
105. The Recipient has prepared the PPSD which helped to identify procurement arrangements to support the achievement of the development objectives as well as mitigation measures to minimize potential risks during project implementation. Procurement activities under this Grant include procurable recurrent expenditures of small contract values. To achieve the DLIs, the MoE will procure these items by approaching national markets through NPP in accordance with Section 5 paragraph 5.4 of the Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers (July 1, 2016). All procurement will follow procedures as provided for under Ethiopian Federal Government and Procurement and Property Administration Proclamation No. 649/2009 and Federal Public Procurement Directive issued by the MoFEC dated June 10, 2010 subject to the following requirements as provided for herein below: i. open advertising of the procurement opportunity at the national level;
ii. the procurement is open to eligible firms from any country; iii. the request for bids/request for proposals document shall require that Bidders/Proposers
submitting Bids/Proposals present a signed acceptance at the time of bidding, to be incorporated in any resulting contracts, confirming application of, and compliance with, the World Bank’s Anti-Corruption Guidelines, including without limitation the World Bank’s right to sanction and the World Bank’s inspection and audit rights;
iv. contracts with an appropriate allocation of responsibilities, risks and liabilities; v. publication of contract award information;
vi. rights for the World Bank to review procurement documentation and activities; vii. an effective complaints mechanism; and
viii. maintenance of records of the procurement Process.
106. Other national procurement arrangements (other than national open competitive procurement) that may be applied by the Borrower (such as limited/restricted competitive bidding, request for quotation/shopping, direct contracting), shall be consistent with the World Bank’s Core Procurement Principles and ensure that the World Bank’s Anti-Corruption Guidelines and Sanctions Framework and contractual remedies set out in its Legal Agreement apply. Assessment of the Agency’s Capacity to Implement Procurement
107. The Procurement Unit (Procurement Services and Administration Directorate) under the MoE is responsible for procurement of Goods and services under the proposed Grant. The Directorate is responsible for the procurement of the procurable recurrent expenditures under the Grant.
108. A procurement capacity assessment of the Directorate was carried out for the GEQIP II project. The procurement capacity assessment has revealed risks associated with organization and staffing of the Directorate. In the MoE the procurement capacity problem in terms of lack of qualified and procurement proficient personnel still remains a challenge. Due to the limitations in capacity to handle high value contracts the Directorate is dependent on consultants employed under the GEQIP II project. The MoE was supposed to hire additional contract administration experts and procurement consultants for the project. However, despite repeated notices it was not possible to acquire the experts, mainly due to the salary cap issued by the MoFEC for project staff.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 56 of 63
109. Other areas of risks identified through the procurement capacity assessment also include the following:
i. The MoE procurement services and Administration Directorate has limitations in its capacity to handle procurement under World Bank procurement procedures. Accordingly, both quality and timeliness of procurement and contract management decisions will remain to be at risk in the implementation of procurement activities under the project;
ii. There is lack of experience in procurement plan preparation and using it for monitoring procurement implementation and using it as a management decision tool.
iii. The most important challenge is associated with evaluation of bids. Considerable delays are observed in evaluation of bids, contract award, and contract implementation in general.
iv. There is lack of effective procurement complaints handling and weak procurement oversight. v. The procurement documentation is not satisfactory. The system is weak for easy location of
relevant documents and there is no separate safe and secure place for procurement documentation.
110. In general, the risks identified in procurement capacity at the MoE remain high and the effort made to
improve the procurement capacity at the MoE is limited. Crucial attention has to be given to the capacity constraints in the Procurement and Services Directorate taking into account the substantial number of high value contracts [not specifically for this Grant] to be handled and also its role in capacity building of other implementing agencies.
111. In view of the identified risks and taking note of procurement and contract management delays as a result of implementing GEQIP II the following mitigation measures are proposed: i. Additional procurement and contract administration experts need to be hired. Due to the failure in
repeated attempts so far, likely because of low salary, the issue needs proper attention to come up with plausible solution.
ii. So far the MoE is dependent on Consultants for procurement and contract administration for World Bank financed projects. The MoE needs to build its own capacity to handle the procurement and contract administration.
iii. The MoE has to review its current internal organizational capacity with regard to Procurement and contract administration and has to establish a system that enables efficient and timely handling of procurement and contract implementation with clear articulated business standards for procurement unit and Endorsing Committee.
iv. There is a need to improve safe keeping of records and establish a system that enables easy location of relevant documents and provision for allocating a separate record keeping room and also establish a record security and backup program.
v. The procurement oversight needs to be improved. Independent procurement Audits have to be carried out at least once in a year and the recommendations of the Audits implemented.
Procurement Arrangements and Value for Money
112. The procurement objective of the proposed Grant is to procure best quality procurable recurrent expenditure items to support the MoE to deliver the DLIs stipulated under the Grant. In trying to attain these objectives the overall procurement objective of attaining value for money through integrity and sustainable development shall also be upheld.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 57 of 63
Procurement Risk Analysis
113. Measures are put in place to mitigate the risks associated with the procurement of the procurement items. The contracts for the procurement items are of low value, and the national market for these recurrent expenditures is generally competitive. Regardless of the fact that the MoE has a number of years of experience in procurement of recurrent items and learning materials, and the market is generally competitive, there are risks associated with capacity of the MoE in procurement processing and preparation of technically sound specifications and evaluation criteria. There are also risks associated with the external environment including the market players, which may affect the procurement process under the grant. In view of this the MoE shall put in place risk mitigation measures which are agreed with the World Bank. Procurement risk descriptions and proposed mitigation measures are provided in Table 3.2.
Table 3.2. Procurement Risk and Mitigation Measures
Risk Description A Likelihood
Rating
B Impact Rating
C Duration
Rating
Overall Risk
Rating (A*B*C)
Description of Proposed Mitigation Measures
Delays in procurement processing and internal approvals of contract award recommendations
H* H H H Procurement Directorates should be strengthened and should comply to business standards in procurement processing. Train the Endorsing Committee to build their capacity to make fast deliberations.
Unavailability of qualified procurement and contract management staff
H H H H Attractive compensation and quality training to hire procurement and contract management staff in the MoE.
Lack of experience in World Bank procurement procedures
H H H H Quality training in World Bank’s procurement procedures.
* H - High
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 58 of 63
Annex 4. Economic and Financial Analysis
114. This annex presents the economic and financial analysis of the Project, starting with the summary of the cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses carried out to identify the expected economic gains resulting from the implementation of the project, followed by the analysis of the fiscal trends in the sector with a particular focus on primary education. The annex also presents the rationale for public investment and the World Bank’s involvement in the project. Expected Development Impact
115. The proposed project will have a development impact in several areas of the pre-primary and primary education. The proposed project will allow the creation of a better learning environment for students in the most educationally disadvantaged regions. Improved and inclusive learning environment in primary schools including its pre-primary O-classes as well as strengthened school leadership can lead to monetized benefits through higher quality skills and knowledge of students, given their importance for an individual’s future productivity and earnings. The project will also enhance the capacity of schools and teachers to deliver the new O-class curriculum. The quality of a child’s early learning experience makes a difference for school preparation, participation, completion, and achievement. Participation in ECE can make a difference in preparing children for school. Quality improvements in this area support better learning outcomes, school attendance, pass rates, and promotions while reducing dropouts and repetition rates—the challenges Ethiopia’s education system currently faces. Cost-benefit Analysis
116. The benefit-to-cost ratio calculation follows from an economic model that accounts for the cash flow generated by a person during his or her productive lifetime and comparing those outcomes to project investments. The principal benefits expected from the project stem from the fact that individuals are expected to be more employable and productive by (a) gaining access to primary schooling and developing relevant skills which are required to participate productively in life and (b) improving the competencies imparted though better teaching and schooling practices, including in O-classes. The project is implemented over a two-year period between 2017 and 2019 and consists of five results areas. For the results areas of the project, which are independent of each other, the analysis is conducted to determine whether each of them increases or decreases the project’s total net present value (NPV).7
117. For the results area aimed to reduce dropouts in SNNPR, the analysis is conducted in the following way. First, the number of additional students who will be retained in the education system and progress to grade 2 as a direct result of the investment is projected. Second, the benefits for the students who participate or graduate from primary and secondary education are estimated. Third, these benefits are compared to the project costs and the internal rates of return are estimated. The analysis calculates the cost and benefit streams over a time span of 20 years from 2017 to 2036. The NPV of the potential savings related to the project is calculated based on a discount rate of 7 percent. The benefits are
7 Belli Pedro, Jack R. Anderson, Howard N. Barnum, John A. Dixon, and Jee-Peng Tan. 2001. “Economic Analysis of Investment
Operations - Analytical Tools and Practical Applications.” The World Bank, Washington, DC; Berryman S. 2014. Guidelines for Ensuring and Assessing Efficiency of AFTEE Education Operations.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 59 of 63
derived from the higher expected earnings generated by a more qualified and educated pool of students. To quantify the likely benefits accruing because of reducing dropouts a number of assumptions have to be made (summary of assumptions is presented in Table 4.1).
Table 4.1. Summary of Assumptions for Cost-benefit Analysis (reducing dropouts)
Assumptions Scenarios
Low Case Base High Case
Number of students in SNNPR (baselines) 897,385
Grade 1 dropout rate target 2016/17, % 17.0
Grade 1 dropout rate target 2017/18, % 13.0
Children remaining in schools (Year 1), adjusted for increasing enrollments
73,586
Children remaining in schools (Year 2), adjusted for increasing enrollments
109,481
Additional enrollments G1 per year, % 3.3
Grade 2 dropout rate, % 10.0 7.4 5.4
Grade 3 dropout rate, % 9.0 6.5 4.5
Grade 4 dropout rate, % 12.0 6.9 4.9
Grade 5 dropout rate, % 13.0 7.6 5.6
Grade 6 dropout rate, % 9.0 5.8 3.8
Grade 7 dropout rate, % 8.0 6.8 4.6
Grade 8 dropout rate, % 15.0 8.8 6.8
Grades 9–12 dropout rate for each grade, % 7.0 5.0 4.0
Education recurrent spending in 2014/15, ETB 2,561,735,597
Exchange rate: US$1 = ETB 20.5 (2015) 20.5
Teacher salaries in education recurrent spending, % 80.0
SNNPR student-teacher ratio, grades 1–8 50.0
SNNPR student-teacher ratio, grades 9-12 28.0 Source: Calculations based on World Bank, International Labour Organization, MoE ESAA, and Young Lives data.
118. To quantify likely benefits because of tackling dropouts, first the number of children who will continue
schooling is calculated using the grade 1 dropout targets for SNNPR, adjusted for increasing enrollments. As a result, the number of beneficiaries is projected to increase to 73,586 at the end of the first year and 109,481 at the end of the second year. The cost-benefit analysis is undertaken for three different scenarios. In the base case scenario, it is assumed that following the decline of dropouts in grade 1 to
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 60 of 63
the national average, similar achievements will be observed for other grades, that is, the dropout rates for grade 2–12 will also mirror the national average. Wage gain is obtained from the difference between the average wage of those with some or completed primary or secondary education in relation to those without education, adjusted for annual wage increases representing for low, base, and high case scenarios 2.5 percent, 3.0 percent, and 3.5 percent increase, respectively.
119. Costs. The estimated costs include all project costs of US$30 million and costs of additional teachers required to provide education services to beneficiary students in line with the current student-teacher ratio in primary and secondary schools. The per capita school grants are also included.
120. The project is expected to result in economic return and pay off in terms of future income streams. The analysis indicates an estimated benefit-to-cost ratio of 3.1 and an internal rate of return of about 14.7 percent in the base case scenario. Table 4.2 summarizes the sensitivity analysis showing the extent to which the results depend upon the assumptions. The array of possible sensitivity tests and scenarios that could be performed is significant. For example, the number of enrolling, progressing, and graduating students could expand further than assumed.
Table 4.2. Sensitivity Analysis
Scenario
Sensitivity test results
NPV of Net Benefits (US$, million)
Benefit-to-cost Ratio
Internal Rate of Return, %
Base case 264.1 3.1 14.7
High case 318.6 3.4 15.7
Low case 213.1 2.8 13.7
121. The model employed in the analysis captures only part of the project’s benefits and therefore provides
the lower bound for the impact of the project. The analysis takes into account only quantifiable benefits and therefore, may underestimate overall gains. There are positive externalities associated with higher educational attainment and better cognitive and noncognitive skills (such as lower crime rates, better health outcomes, and higher tax receipts, among other public benefits)8 as well as potential increases in economic growth that are not considered in this analysis. As a result, it is likely that the computed internal rate of return presents a lower bound for the impact of the project.
122. For other results areas, students attending schools with an appropriate learning conditions have shown improvements in learning achievements (Table 4.3). For example, in Ethiopia, children who attend preschool tend to have better cognitive skills later in life than other children.9 Young Lives data indicate that children who attended pre-school perform better in primary school as compared to their peers: 8-year-olds who have attended pre-school scored 43.7 percent higher in vocabulary tests and 51.1 percent
8 Literature on positive externalities as summarized in Davies, J. 2003. “Empirical Evidence on Human Capital Externalities.”
Ontario, Canada: The University of Western Ontario. 9 The federal Government of Ethiopia has extensively promoted the expansion of ECE services under the ESDP V and, in
particular, has sought to introduce, within primary school settings, a preprimary O-class. In the last three years, the number of children enrolled in O-classes has doubled and continues to grow.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 61 of 63
higher in the cognitive test than those who did not attend ECE services10. Better learning outcomes tend to result in higher earnings of people throughout their lifetime, as well as faster economic growth at the national level. However, given the absence of the evidence between the cognitive skills and earnings in Ethiopia, these benefits are not quantified in this analysis. Nevertheless, high returns to relevant investments have been consistently demonstrated across a range of contexts, with a typical rate of return between 2:1 and 8:1 per invested dollar.11
Table 4. 2. Selected Pupil-level Factors Influencing Learning Achievement at the Beginning (T1) and End (T2) of School Year (Grade 4 and 5)
No-one in the household literate -10.27*** -5.56* -13.25*** —
Attended pre-school 4.67** - 8.17*** 3.67***
Ever repeated a grade -36.59*** -4.75** -35.36*** -4.56***
Ever dropped-out -4.68** — -13.11*** -4.31**
Reads books at home 16.64*** 6.20*** 15.70*** 3.59*
Learns in mother tongue — — 16.44*** 5.59*
Pastoralist pupil -25.36*** — -35.44*** -8.32**
Source: Young Lives school survey of grades 4 and 5, 2013/14. Data significant at different levels: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.
123. Financial analysis. Education accounts for about 20 percent of total government spending. These
figures are comparable to other African countries: figures for Rwanda, Kenya, and Tanzania are all
between 17–18 percent, and the Sub-Saharan Africa average is 19 percent. Public spending on
education in Ethiopia increased by 70 percent in real terms between 2004 and 2012. This increase is
largely a result of the expansion of the higher education and school enrollment up to grade 12 rising
from 10 million to 19 million. Recurrent spending, largely composed of teacher salaries, doubled during
this period. A massive increase in capital spending in 2009 was sustained until 2012 as construction of
10
Woldehanna T., Gebremedhin L. 2012. “The Effects of Pre-school Attendance on the Cognitive Development of Urban Children aged 5 and 8 Years Evidence from Ethiopia.” Young Lives, University of Oxford. 11
Naudeau, S, N. Kataoka, A. Valerio, M. J. Neuman, and L. K. Elder. 2011. “Investing in Young Children: An Early Childhood Development Guide for Policy Dialogue and Project Preparation.” World Bank, Washington, DC.; Neuman, Michelle J.; Devercelli, Amanda E. 2013. “What Matters Most for Early Childhood Development: A Framework Paper. Systems Approach for Better Education Results (SABER).” Working Paper Series 5, World Bank, Washington, DC.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 62 of 63
the new universities got under way.12 Primary and secondary levels account for 42 percent of education
spending (with 32 percent and 10 percent shares, respectively). Figure 4.1 presents real growth in
education subsector expenditures.
Figure 4.1. Real Growth in Education Subsector Expenditures (ETB million 2011)
Source: MoFEC BOOST data.
Rationale for Public Sector Provision
124. The key priorities of the current ESDP V are “to provide equal opportunities and participation for all, with special attention to disadvantaged groups” and “to provide all children with access to pre-primary education for school preparedness and access to nearby institutions in which they can complete the full eight years of primary and two years of general secondary education”. Provision of primary education, including pre-primary O-class, is one of the key functions of the public sector in Ethiopia. Therefore, state responsibility for school learning conditions improvements is generally viewed as a reasonable and justified use of public funds, which is part of the social contract in most countries. Given the proposed project’s support of primary schools in targeted regions (including pre-primary O-classes in school compounds), the use of project funds to complement public spending toward achieving the stated priorities in pre-primary and primary education is justified. Value Added of World Bank's Support
125. The World Bank is well-positioned to add value to improving learning conditions in primary schools, including O-classes in Ethiopia through the proposed project. The World Bank has broad country, regional, and global experience in the proposed project’s areas of preprimary and primary education. The World Bank has supported relevant projects across the world and has undertaken detailed reviews and impact evaluations of different interventions. This serves as a rich body of evidence and experience which this project will draw upon to support its implementation. The World Bank’s involvement in
12
World Bank.2015. “Investing in Ethiopia’s Future: Education Sector Financing Review.” Washington, DC.
The World Bank Ethiopia Education Results and Development Project (P163608)
Page 63 of 63
education sector (including under the GEQIP II), as well as other sectors allows for synergies within and across sectors. This results-based financing IPF will be an important milestone on the way to the new Program for Results in the education sector, which is currently under development. The World Bank will continue to closely coordinate project activities with the development partners, to maximize development impact of the project.
