January 28, 2010
The External Environment for Developing Countries
Overview
This brief was prepared by a team of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG), led by Elliot (Mick) Riordan, comprising
Riordan (G-3, forex, edits), Nadia Spivak (trade), Betty Dow and Shane Streifel (commodities), Eung Ju Kim (finance), Cristina
Savescu (IP) and Sabah Mirza (Annex). The note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by the World Bank Group.
January 2010
Shifts in the tenor of the global economy are apparent, with world trade picking up to high dou-
ble-digit growth at year-end 2009 with OECD economies—under the influence of government stimulus
programs—beginning to import at substantial rates (United States 35%, Japan and Germany 40%,
(saar)). With already-strong demand in developing countries, world import volume is growing at 40%+
(saar), sufficient to spur exports across a wide array of countries. World production is easing to more
sustainable rates in the wake of immediate recovery from recession. Global IP growth dipped to 10% in
November from 13% in the third quarter.
New forecasts from the IMF and World Bank raise growth projections for 2010-2011 from earlier
reports, but paint a picture of only modest GDP gains in the recovery period.
Mixed growth outturns expected across the OECD, with the United States likely to experience a
sharp gain in GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2009 (4.5- to 5.5%, saar) on the back of strong con-
sumer outlays, end to de-stocking and growth in business investment. In contrast, GDP in both Europe
and Japan is anticipated to be subdued, as households continue to refrain from spending.
Capital flows increased from $40 billion to $45 billion in December, carrying flows for 2009 to $348
billion—down 11% from $390 billion in 2008. Banking increased sharply at year-end, but lending fell to
$123 billion in the year from $257 billion in 2008. Bond issuance was robust amid increasing risk appe-
tite, surging from $65 billion in 2008 to $115 billion. And equity placements jumped 60% to $109 billion
in 2009. An element of risk that emerged with more force in January is that of sovereign debt default,
weighing especially upon several countries in the Euro Area, including Greece, Portugal and Spain. The
net amount of credit default swaps outstanding on 54 sovereigns has soared 14.2% since October.
Commodity prices up on demand expectations, crude oil breached $80/bbl in January, on
colder than normal weather in the United States; but metals and several ag commodities have increased
on supply shortfalls combined with expectations of stronger demand ahead.
World trade picks up steam
as stimulus measures boost imports
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09
OECD imports
Developing imports
Source: World Bank, Development Prospects Group.
goods import volumes, OECD and developing countries (ch%, saar)
World production moderates
toward more sustainable rates
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09
Developing excl China
High Income
World
industrial production (percent change, saar)
Source: World Bank, Development Prospects Group.
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January 28, 2010
page 2 External Environment for Developing Countries
Global Indicators
Global Indicators
(Percentage change per annum, unless otherwise specified)
2007 2008 2009e 2010f
GDP volume: World 3.9 1.7 -2.2 2.7
Memo item: World GDP at PPP weights 5.0 2.7 -1.0 3.5
High-income countries 2.6 0.4 -3.3 2.3
Developing countries 8.1 5.6 1.2 5.2
Industrial production: World 4.8 0.6 ... ...
High-income countries 2.6 -1.8 ... ...
Developing countries 9.8 5.9 ... ...
Export volume (GNFS): World 7.2 3.0 -14.4 4.3
High-income countries 6.2 2.1 -15.4 3.4
Developing countries 9.8 5.3 -11.7 6.4
Trade Prices ($): Manufacturing (MUV) 5.5 6.0 -4.9 1.5
Oil ($/bbl) 71.1 97.0 61.8 76.0
Non-oil commodities 17.1 21.0 -21.6 5.3
Nominal interest rates:
$LIBOR (6m percent p.a.) 5.20 3.20 1.15 1.80
€LIBOR (6m percent p.a.) 4.30 4.80 1.50 2.20
Financial flows
FDI ($billion) 520 583 ... ...
Gross Capital flowsa ($billion) 652 389 347 317317317 ...
Equity placement ($bn) 194 68 109 107107107 ...
Bond financing ($bn) 146 65 115 117117117 ...
Lending ($bn) 312 257 123 939393 ...
Source: DECPG, January 2010. Estimates and projections for 2009 and 2010 based on GEP-2010, released January 21, 2010.
Note: a. Gross inflows 2009 based on preliminary year-to-date figures. Figures in bold represent changes this month.
January 28, 2010
page 3 External Environment for Developing Countries
United States
Labor markets and spending. U.S. labor mar-
kets are improving, echoing more optimistic business
attitudes that economic recovery has stronger roots.
Job loss was 85,000 in December compared to a re-
vised net gain of 4,000 jobs in November (first monthly
pickup in 2 years). Job cuts have eased in the fourth
quarter, when an average 69,000 jobs were lost per
month, contrasted with monthly job loss averaging
690,000 in the first quarter of 2009. This has lead to a
pick-up in personal income and non-auto retail spend-
ing to growth of 3.4%-and 7.9% in November and De-
cember respectively (saar). In the wake of the mark-
down to third quarter GDP from 2.8% to 2.2% growth,
analysts now look for fourth quarter output to advance
4.5-to 5.5% (saar), as inventory liquidation ends, and
consumer and business spending picks-up.
Driving force. Manufacturing has been the driving
force for growth in the recovery phase. ISM headline
indices of activity stood at 54.9 for factory output and
49.8 for services in January (where „50‟ marks the line
between growth and decline). However, at year-end
factory orders and manufacturing production displayed
signs of easing. Gains for durables orders dropped
sharply from 16% in the third quarter to 2% in Decem-
ber (saar); and production halved from 12% growth to
6% between October and December. These may be
temporary factors related to the shift from inventory
depletion to accumulation by business, suggesting that
manufacturing will rebound into 2010. Federal Reserve
surveys for January activity in Philadelphia and New
York tend to confirm this view.
Price pressures. Following 6 months in which
headline CPI declined on a year-on-year basis, infla-
tion breached into positive territory once more during
November and December (1.5% for the latter month (y/
y)). Though not an immediate concern for the Federal
Reserve, the upward price pressures are due to in-
creases in energy and materials costs in international
markets, amplified by dollar weakness. Recent in-
creases in PPI and CPI headline indices on an annual-
ized basis (7.5- and 3.5% respectively in December,
saar), point to continued upward pressure in coming
months.
Improvements in labor markets now setting the tone for increased spending
change in employment (‘000, 3mma) [L]; income and retail sales x autos, ch% (saar) [R]
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09
Source: U.S. Departments of Labor and Commerce.
retail x autos [R]
change in employment [L]
Pick-up in energy and commodity
prices lifts CPI to positive territory (y/y)consumer and producer price indices, ch% (saar and 3mma yr/yr)
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1/1/2007 5/1/2007 9/1/2007 1/1/2008 5/1/2008 9/1/2008 1/1/2009 5/1/2009 9/1/2009
Source: U.S. Department of Labor.
CPI saar
CPI yr/yr
PPI saar
Durable goods orders and factory output
momentum fade in late 2009 durable goods orders, mfgr output, ch% (saar) [L]; ISM mfgr headline index (3mma) [R]
35
40
45
50
55
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09
Durable goods orders [L]
Manufacturing
production [L]
ISM Mfgr index [R]
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce,Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
January 28, 2010
page 4 External Environment for Developing Countries
Japan
Household stress. Japan‟s households continue
to refrain from spending, with consumer confidence
slipping to a 6-month low in December, indicating
unease as the immediate effects of the government‟s
stimulus plans have begun to fade. Moreover, politi-
cal scandals among the leadership of the new gov-
ernment, as well as changes in key personnel, such
as the Minister of Finance, leave consumers uncer-
tain as to whether a “second stimulus” will in fact oc-
cur. 18 months of declining wages and near-record
unemployment have combined to leave household
spending in negative growth territory (down 1% in
November (y/y)), with retail volumes off 0.8% as of
December, a sixteenth month of declining sales.
Investment soft. Business and residential invest-
ment have been among the weaker spots in Japan‟s
recovery, with corporate capital outlays declining at
double-digit rates in the third quarter (10.6%, saar)
and residential investment falling 28%, as the reces-
sion decimated the upturn in homebuilding of 2008.
The large revisions to third-quarter GDP from initial
estimates of robust 4.8% advances to growth of 1.3%
was tied to overestimates of corporate willingness to
invest. Machinery orders in November dropped a full
8% from October (m/m), reaching lowest levels since
May 1987. Orders from service establishments
dropped a full 10.6%, while those from all industries
(a leading indicator of business investment in 3 to 6
months) fell to an all-time low. Prospects for invest-
ment are cloudy at best.
Exports up. On a brighter note, exports increased
in year-on-year terms for the first in 15 months in
December, easing concerns that the economy is
headed for a double dip recession. Booming import
demand from China, which overtook the United
States as Japan‟s largest export destination in 2009,
has played a large part in this rebound; but import
demand across OECD countries is now picking up
sharply under the influence of government stimulus
programs. Though soft in November, machinery or-
ders are running at a 30-to 40% pace (saar), export
volumes breached 50% growth in December (saar),
and manufacturing output eased to 20% from peaks
nearer 60% in July (saar), largely due to falling do-
mestic demand.
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3-2008 Q4-2008 Q1-2009 Q2-2009 Q3-2009
Corp GDI RES GDI
fixed investment, business and residential (homebuilding), ch% saar
Japan’s corporate and residential investment(homebuilding) in the doldrums
Source: Japan Cabinet Office (EPA).
Japan exports up sharply at year end
as OECD imports reviveJapan machinery orders, export volumes and industrial production, ch% saar
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09
Machinery orders
Japan export volumes
Manufacturing production
Source: Japan EPA through Thomson/Datastream.
Japan spending under pressure from rising unemployment, falling wages
unemployment rate (%) [L]; real HH expenditures, cash wages, ch% (y/y) [R]
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09
Source: Japan Cabinet Office (EPA).
Cash wages [R]
Unemployment rate [L]
January 28, 2010
page 5 External Environment for Developing Countries
Euro Area
Europeans more optimistic. Euro Area busi-
ness and households have turned more upbeat
about prospects over the last months, though figures
on GDP, retail spending and investment offer only
modest encouragement for recovery. German busi-
ness, in particular has turned more bullish that ex-
ports (which have regained strength) and industrial
activity will spill over to households and investment.
Consumers are also taking heart from an upward
revision to third quarter GDP (to 1.7% from 1.5%
saar), and signs that the U.S. recovery is building
momentum. But confidence indicators have “jumped
the gun” earlier, and against the current background
may be doing so once more.
Spending in the doldrums. The central weak-
ness in the economy is the continued worsening of
labor markets, which has placed a damper on con-
sumer spending. The number of unemployed
breached 15 million in November 2009, carrying the
unemployment rate to 9.9%; this contrasts with 11
million unemployed (7.3% rate) at the start of 2008.
Euro Area real consumption declined in 4 of 6 quar-
ters since early 2008, and retail sales volumes in the
Zone continue to retrench- 2.6% below year-earlier
levels in November. Government stimulus measures
(auto incentives, for example) carried positive effects,
but these have since tailed off. And signs of spillover
from strength in manufacturing to other sectors have
yet to emerge.
A brighter spot. German export orders and ex-
port shipments picked-up sharply toward year-end,
as import demand across most of the OECD has
been stimulated by public expenditures and accom-
modate monetary policies--complementing the surge
in developing country imports already in progress.
Though easing into November, export order growth is
tracking at 25-to 35% (saar), while export volumes
have ratcheted from 20% gains during the third quar-
ter to 50% by November (saar). Manufacturing output
has been restrained to a 15% pace by weak demand
from domestic firms. Similar developments are un-
derway in France, and to a lesser degree in Italy,
suggesting that European recovery will be largely
export-led for several quarters to come.
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
75
88
100
113
Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10
Euro Area sentiment up in the new yearIFO survey (overall and expectations) [left]; Euro Area consumer confidence [right]
IFO- expectations [L]
Source: IFO and European Commission.
Euro Area Consumer Confidence [R]
IFO- overall [L]
Euro Area unemployment worsens quickly placing damper on spending
number of unemployed (millions) [L]; retail sales volume, ch% (3mma, y/y) [R]
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09
Source: Eurostat through Thomson/Datastream.
Euro Area
retail volumes [R]
Number of unemployed [L]
German exports pick-up at end-year on
strong orders for capital equipment German export orders, export volumes and industrial production, ch% saar
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09
Export orders
German export volumes
Manufacturing production
Source: Bundesbank through Thomson/Datastream.
January 28, 2010
page 6 External Environment for Developing Countries
Industrial Production
Global production moderates. World indus-
trial production grew 10% in November (seasonally
adjusted annualized rate (saar)) down from 13% in
the third quarter. The pace of slowing was similar for
high-income and developing countries (excluding
China). For the former, output eased to 8.9% in No-
vember; for the latter it slowed to 9.3%. A general
tailing-off of fiscal stimulus over the course of 2010 is
expected to result in further moderation of output
growth over coming quarters. But, easing from recent
robust rates tied to the rebound from recession is to
be expected, as global economic conditions move in
the direction of “normalization”.
China output grew rapidly at year end.
Strong demand from households, government and
business kept industrial output growth above trend in
the fourth quarter of 2009. Gains in the final quarter
of 2009 registered 15% (saar) down only marginally
from the 17% of the third quarter. A noticeable
strengthening in external demand has also played a
role in supporting production. Looking forward, with
demand for China‟s exports expected to strengthen
in coming months, and both private domestic con-
sumption and investment growth underpinned to
strong gains by continuing stimulus (though recent
moves to tighten rapid credit expansion may place a
modest damper on demand) industrial production
should continue to grow at above trend rates in com-
ing months and quarters.
European output up on capital goods. Mo-
mentum in Euro Area output has also slowed, with
production gaining 3% in November (saar) compared
to 9% growth during the third quarter. Output levels
remain 10% below November 2008. Increases in
demand for intermediate and capital goods (10% and
8.5% respectively) were the main sources of growth
for production in November, with consumer demand
in the doldrums. Retail sales declined 3% in the three
months to November (saar), contrasted with a falloff
of 1.7% in the third quarter. Demand for European
exports is firming, and production for export is likely
to gain substantial momentum, with overall output
still restrained by exceptionally soft domestic de-
mand.
Momentum of industrial production is
moderating
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09
Developing excl China
High Income
World
Source: World Bank calculations based on Thomson Datastream data
Industrial production (percent change, saar)
Chinese output momentum supported by
domestic demand and a pick-up in exports
0
5
10
15
20
25
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09
3m/3m saar (right axis)
Year-on-year (left axis)
Industrial production (percent change, saar)
Source: World Bank calculations based on Thomson Datastream data
Euro zone production rises on stronger
demand for intermediate and capital goods
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09
3m/3m saar
Year-on-year
Industrial production (percent change, saar)
Source: World Bank calculations based on Thomson Datastream data
January 28, 2010
page 7 External Environment for Developing Countries
International Trade
Imbalances stabilizing at low levels. The
global current account balance—the sum of the ab-
solute values of national balances—diminished from
5.9% of GDP in 2008 to 3.9% in 2009, but is pro-
jected to increase somewhat to 4.1% by 2011. In
large part this is due to adjustments recorded in the
United States and China. In June 2009, the U.S.
trade deficit narrowed to its lowest level since late-
2002, an annualized deficit of $490 billion. Since then
it has increased slightly, by about $100 billion, re-
flecting higher oil prices in the second half of the year
and a nascent recovery in domestic demand. Con-
currently, China‟s trade surplus diminished to its low-
est level since early-2006 in August 2009 before ris-
ing unevenly over the next few months.
U.S. and German export orders ease. The
bounce-back of industrial production in high income,
export-oriented economies was driven by a resur-
gence of external demand from developing countries,
particularly China. In recent months, however, the
expected reversal in the inventory draw-down cycle
in developing country importers has led to a de-
crease in export orders for industrial products from
high income countries such as Germany and the
United States. With the weakening in external de-
mand, the pace of expansion in industrial output has
begun to soften in high income countries, and further
growth will depend on a strengthening in domestic
consumer demand.
Developing country exports accelerating.
Trade volume growth (q/q, saar) continued to firm in
developing countries, particularly in East Asia and
the Pacific, and South Asia, and is gaining once
more in Latin America and the Caribbean, South Asia
and Europe and Central Asia, after flagging for a
brief period. The recovery in trade has lagged the
recovery in output, but has rebounded more sharply
as of late. Consequently, world export volumes are
now 0.2% higher than a year earlier (the first positive
reading in 13 months) even though global production
remains 3.9% below prior-year levels.
-1150
-950
-750
-550
-350
-150
50
250
450
Jan-00 Aug-01 Mar-03 Oct-04 May-06 Jan-08 Aug-09
USA total balance
China total balance
Global imbalances have begun to stabilize at lower levels
USA excluding oil
Total goods trade balance, minus all crude oil imports, US$ bn, sa. annualized
China excluding oil
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Haver Analytics.
Foreign demand for high-income
exports weakens in fourth quarter
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10
United States [R]
Germany [L]
Export orders, Germany and the United States (ISM)
Source: Bundesbank and Institute for Supply Management.
Export growth accelerating in
developing countriesvolume of exports, 3m/3m moving average, saar % chg
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09
Developing East Asia & Pacific
Latin America South Asia
Europe & Central Asia
Source: DECPG.
January 28, 2010
page 8 External Environment for Developing Countries
Commodity Prices
Oil prices up on cold January weather.
Prices surged above $80/bbl in early January on
colder weather and slowly improving fundamentals.
However stocks remain high, OECD demand is still
weak and prices are retreating below $80/bbl once
more. For 2009, oil prices averaged $61.80/bbl, a
drop of 36% from the preceding year due to the
slump in demand and ballooning stocks. However
prices revived from troughs of $42/bbl in February to
nearly $75/bbl by December—within the $70-$80/bbl
range that key OPEC producers have targeted as a
price they deem acceptable. An important driver for
higher prices over the year was 4mb/d in OPEC pro-
duction cuts, though compliance has slipped below
60 percent.
Crude oil stocks fall. U.S. crude oil inventories
dropped in the second half of 2009 largely due to
lower imports—but stocks are high by historical stan-
dards. Petroleum product stocks are larger still, par-
ticularly for middle distillate (heating oil and diesel).
Some of this overhang is currently burning off due to
cold weather; but diesel demand remains weak as
the slump in commercial road transport continues. At
end-December, 146 million barrels of oil were stored
at sea, of which crude comprised 51 million. Non-
OECD oil demand has rebounded steadily since
slumping in Q1-09, with demand in Q4-09 up 4.7% y/
y, led by an 8% jump in China. The contraction in
OECD demand eased in the final quarter of 2009, but
consumption remained 3% lower (y/y).
Natural gas and coal prices rebound. Natu-
ral gas prices have come off their lows but are well
below 2008 peaks. Prices for European gas imports
and LNG to Japan are generally linked to oil- with a
lag. But the price rebound has been limited tied to
weak gas demand, new LNG capacity and large
stocks—though cold weather is now biting into inven-
tories. U.S. gas prices, which are based on gas-to-
gas competition, have been extremely weak with a
slump in industrial demand and steady increases in
unconventional shale gas. Coal prices surged in
January due to cold weather and snow in China,
which has driven up demand while disrupting coal
transportation to power plants.
Oil prices rise above $80/bbl
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10
$/bbl mb/d
Oil price [L scale]
OPEC Production [R]
Source: IEA and DECPG.
U.S. crude oil inventories
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
M bbl
5-year high-low ranges
Source: U.S. Department of Energy and DECPG.
Natural gas and coal prices
0
4
8
12
16
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10
US Gas
Europe Gas
LNG Japan
Coal Australia
$/mmbtu
Source: World Gas Intelligence, International Coal Report, and DECPG.
January 28, 2010
page 9 External Environment for Developing Countries
Agricultural prices revive across 2009. Av-
erage agriculture prices fell 22% in 2009, but (like
crude oil) rebounded sharply from lows earlier in the
year. Rubber and sugar prices doubled in the year to
December, with rubber up in step with oil prices,
while sugar now is affected by lower-than-anticipated
production in India and Brazil. Most beverage prices
recorded strong gains on various supply constraints,
but grains prices lagged on abundant harvests. In
December, fats and oils prices increased for a third
month, with palm oil prices up 9% on strong import
demand and lower production in Malaysia. Rice
prices also climbed 9% in the wake of reports that
the Philippines planned to buy 2 million tons of rice
due to crop damage from a typhoon in November.
Metals edge higher despite rising stocks.
Metals prices increased 4.1% in December (m/m)
capping a strong year of recovery as prices gained in
9 of 10 months from February troughs. Lead, copper
and zinc prices all more than doubled over the
course of the year. Advances were due to strong
import demand and restocking in China and substan-
tial producer cuts worldwide. Global inventories re-
main high, but restocking is expected to extend to the
OECD in 2010. In December, the largest gain was for
aluminum, up 12% tied to strong demand in China
and tight spot markets. Zinc increased 9% for similar
reasons, while copper increased 5% on rebounding
Chinese imports in November and December.
Gold prices slip in dollar terms. Gold prices
surged above $1,200/toz during December on contin-
ued strong investment demand and concerns about
inflation. Gold prices were boosted in early Novem-
ber as the IMF sold 200 tons to the Reserve Bank of
India, and later 12 tons to Sri Lanka and Mauritius,
signaling government appetite to hold gold. Prices
have since declined in dollar terms but euro prices
remain near their highs. An important driver has been
the growth in physically backed exchange-traded
funds (ETFs). In 2009 gold ETF holdings increased
by 563 tons or 47%—equivalent to 23% of global
gold mine production. More than three-quarters of
net inflows to ETFs came in Q1-09, as investors
rushed to “safe havens” to preserve capital.
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
Beverages
Raw Materials
Food
Agriculture prices continue to
increase on supply constraints(2000=100)
Source: DECPG.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
Copper
Zinc
Aluminum
Lead
Metals prices rise on expectations
of stonger demand $/ton
Source: LME and DECPG.
Gold prices come off their highs
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
$/toz
Gold in dollars
Gold in euros
Source: LME and DECPG.
January 28, 2010
page 10 External Environment for Developing Countries
International Finance
Bank lending up at year-end. Though capital
flows increased moderately from $40 billion to $45
billion in December, flows for 2009 amounted to $348
billion—down 11% from $390 billion in 2008. Banking
increased sharply at year-end, a reflection of several
mega deals in trade (Brazil and Russia) and project
finance in energy (PNG), but lending fell to $123 bil-
lion in the year from $257 billion in 2008. Bond issu-
ance was robust amid increasing risk appetite, surg-
ing from $65 billion in 2008 to $115 billion. Issuance
was up in Latin America and Asia, but Emerging
Europe fell short of its 2008 levels tied to low issu-
ance from Russian borrowers. The ratio of non-
investment grade- to investment grade bonds de-
creased to 40% from 50% in 2008. And equity place-
ments jumped 60% to $109 billion in 2009 with ex-
ceptionally strong flows to China and Brazil.
EM sovereign bonds heating up. Sovereign
issuance activity got off to a strong start with the Re-
public of Turkey and the Philippines tapping the inter-
national market during the first week of 2010. The
pace accelerated with deals from Poland, Mexico,
and Indonesia bringing total EM sovereign borrowing
to $10.8 billion thus far in January. This represents
record volume of sovereign borrowing this early in a
year, and stands 50% higher than average January
issuance between 1998 and 2008 ($7.1 billion). With
borrowing programs typically front-loaded, January is
traditionally the busiest month of the year for sover-
eign issuers—accounting for some 20% of total issu-
ance in a year. As financing gaps grow, and borrow-
ing costs remain near record lows, more activity is
expected in the near future among sovereigns such
as Vietnam, Russia and Romania.
EM assets resilient this year. Emerging mar-
ket assets have seen modest gains thus far in Janu-
ary, continuing an upward path from last year‟s ro-
bust returns. EM equities climbed about 2.2% and
the EMBIG index, measuring returns on EM debt,
gained a modest 1.2%. Risk premiums investors de-
mand to own EM bonds over U.S. government debt
fell to lowest levels in 16 months in mid-January, as
growing optimism over the global economic recovery
prompted investors to buy riskier assets.
A surge in bank lending at year end
Source: DECPG.
Gross capital flows to emerging markets
$ billion
H1 Q3 Q4 Total H1 Q3 Q4 Dec Total
Total 258 82 50 390 110 99 139 45 348
Bonds 53 9 3 65 36 33 46 7 115
Banks 151 63 43 257 42 34 47 28 123
Equity 54 10 4 68 32 32 45 10 109
Lat. America 61 18 10 90 37 37 57 16 130
Bonds 17 1 2 20 15 18 29 5 61
E. Europe 99 35 23 157 22 21 28 8 71
Bonds 27 7 0.4 35 13 11 9 1 33
Asia 69 18 10 98 45 33 48 19 126
Bonds 7 0 0 7 6 3 7 0 16
Others 28 11 6 45 7 8 6 2 21
2008 2009
EM bond issuance activity
off to a strong start in 2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Avg. 1998-08 2009 2010
sovereign bond issuance, monthly, bn USD
Source: Dealogic and DECPG staff calculations.
EM assets appear fairly strong
at the start of 2010
300
350
400
450
500
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10
MSCI-EM$ index [L]
Source: JPMorgan-Chase and Bloomberg.
MSCI-EM in USD [L]; EMBIG bond index [R]
EMBIG bond index [R]
January 28, 2010
page 11 External Environment for Developing Countries
Currencies
Dollar up in January on improved views
for growth. After declining sharply from April 2009
to year-end against the major currencies, several
developments have combined to yield a moderate
rebound for the U.S. unit over January 2010—a 2.5%
gain vis-a-vis euro and 1.5% versus yen. Expecta-
tions for GDP growth for the fourth quarter have been
marked-up by leading analysts to a 4.5% annualized
pace, sufficient to provide “carryover” into early 2010
(GDP for Q4-09 is to be released Friday, January
29). Long rates have backed up by 30 basis points
since early November, likely in response to the
Fed‟s backing out of the Treasury and GSE markets
market at a point sooner than later. And there is evi-
dence that the so-called “carry trade” in dollars, fund-
ing flows to emerging markets, has come to a close-
at least for the immediate term.
Better growth in absolute and relative
terms. Tracking Consensus Economics LLP projec-
tions for GDP growth in 2010, prepared over con-
secutive months in 2009, shows a clear uptrend in
expectations for the United States from a mean 1.9%
in June 2009 to 2.9% growth as of January 2010. In
contrast, the consensus for the Euro Area, though
volatile over 2009, remained unchanged at 1.3% for
2010, while that for Japan gained a percentage point
to 1.3% (likely to be marked down in February read-
ings given recent political difficulties). The widening
growth gap in favor of the United States could prove
a factor underpinning further gains for the dollar.
End to the “carry trade”? The dollar‟s apparent
use as a currency funding trade into emerging mar-
ket securities may have come to a recent halt. With a
30 basis point backup in U.S. benchmark rates, a
leveling out of returns in the MSCI-All EM equity in-
dex, and recent Treasury TICS data pointing to a 2-
year record high level of net foreign purchases of
U.S. Treasuries (some $118 billion during Novem-
ber), incentives for increasing exposure to EM assets
through dollar borrowing may have peaked. This
would tend to boost the greenback‟s value over com-
ing months and quarters. The key risk for the dollar is
likely centered on the pipeline of trillions of dollars in
Treasury debt coming to market over the next years.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10
Expectations for growth move in U.S. favor
Consensus mean GDP growth: forecast for 2010 sampled during 2009/10
Source: Consensus Economics LLC.
Forecast Date in 2009/10:
Japan
Euro Area
United States
Higher U.S. long rates, apparent let-up in
so-called “carry trade” boost dollar
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10
MSCI-EM$ index [L]
Source: Morgan-Stanley and Thomson/Datastream.
MSCI-EM in USD, Jan-2 2009=100 [L]; U.S. yield on 10-year note [R]
U.S. 10-year note [R]
85.00
87.50
90.00
92.50
95.00
97.50
100.00
102.50
105.001.230
1.270
1.310
1.350
1.390
1.430
1.470
1.510
1.550
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10
Source: Thomson/Datastream.
yen/USD
USD/Euro (inverse)
Dollar recoups 2.5% over 2010 to date on more upbeat growth expectations
USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]
January 28, 2010
page 12 External Environment for Developing Countries
Weights Average 2008 2009 2009 2009
2000 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Oct Nov
World 100.0 2.8 4.8 4.7 0.6 -20.4 -22.1 6.0 12.9 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.9
High-income c ountries 77.2 1.4 3.2 2.6 -1.8 -23.3 -31.2 1.2 12.7 1.0 0.9 -0.1 0.9
Industrial c ountries 72.7 1.4 3.3 2.7 -2.0 -23.0 -31.4 0.1 12.8 1.1 0.9 -0.2 0.9
United Sta te s 25.1 1.3 2.3 1.5 -2.2 -13.0 -19.0 -10.4 6.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.6
Japan 17.3 1.1 4.1 2.9 -3.2 -37.3 -61.6 34.0 32.2 1.6 2.0 0.5 2.5
Euro Are a 22.9 1.2 4.0 3.5 -2.0 -24.5 -31.5 -6.1 11.8 2.0 0.0 -0.4 0.3
United Kindgom 4.1 -0.4 0.0 0.3 -3.1 -17.4 -18.7 -2.3 -3.5 -2.6 1.3 0.0 0.3
Other high income 4.5 2.1 5.3 5.1 1.0 -24.6 -17.1 9.8 15.9 -0.1 2.3 -1.6 ..
Hong Kong (China ) 0.2 .. 2.5 -1.5 -6.6 -12.7 -9.6 -3.6 -7.7 -0.8 -0.9 .. ..
Singapore 0.4 6.3 12.1 6.2 -4.0 -16.5 -23.3 72.7 21.6 -4.1 -9.4 -0.2 -7.5
Ta iwan (China) 1.1 4.7 4.6 8.1 -1.3 -58.8 -31.5 100.4 40.6 -1.4 6.7 1.5 2.9
Developing countries 22.8 -210.3 8.8 9.8 5.9 -14.2 -1.6 15.3 13.4 0.4 1.2 0.9 ..
East Asia and Pacific 8.7 20.8 12.9 15.2 11.0 -9.1 11.2 26.5 14.0 0.8 1.5 1.0 ..
China 6.3 15.2 16.4 18.0 12.7 -7.2 15.0 29.1 15.6 1.0 1.5 0.8 ..
Indonesia 0.9 3.4 -1.7 5.6 3.0 -3.5 10.6 -0.6 -4.8 0.9 -2.3 1.9 1.4
Thaila nd 0.6 8.6 7.3 8.2 5.3 -33.1 -28.9 45.0 17.1 -4.1 10.0 -0.1 -0.4
Ma laysia 0.5 5.8 5.0 1.2 0.9 -25.5 -14.0 5.6 10.5 -0.8 -0.4 5.4 -4.4
Europe and Central Asia 3.2 5.1 7.8 7.2 1.2 -29.0 -16.2 4.8 14.4 -0.5 1.0 1.3 1.6
Russian Federa tion 1.0 5.5 6.5 6.3 2.3 -29.1 -22.3 -5.0 17.9 -1.9 3.7 -4.0 6.0
Turkey 0.5 3.7 7.9 6.9 -0.9 -34.8 -23.3 20.9 16.3 2.9 -6.4 14.1 -7.1
Poland 0.6 6.3 12.3 9.3 2.3 -18.7 -8.3 12.5 4.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 2.2
Czech Republic 0.2 4.8 8.2 10.4 -2.1 -34.9 -24.3 2.2 14.6 7.7 -2.2 1.0 ..
Latin America and Caribbea n 6.2 1.5 4.6 4.4 0.7 -20.2 -16.1 1.9 10.3 -0.2 1.0 0.8 0.9
Brazil 1.8 3.3 2.9 5.9 2.9 -36.0 -23.2 17.6 20.5 1.2 1.7 2.3 -0.2
Me xico 1.7 .. 5.7 2.4 -1.0 -12.7 -17.0 -3.0 7.2 -1.3 0.4 1.0 1.0
Argentina 0.8 2.7 8.6 7.3 0.7 -22.7 -11.5 17.6 6.8 1.1 -0.3 -0.9 2.7
Colombia 0.3 2.7 10.7 10.8 -3.1 -13.6 -4.0 -4.8 3.3 -3.5 3.2 -0.6 ..
Middle Ea st and North Africa 1.9 1.6 -0.6 -0.4 1.6 -2.4 -6.8 6.2 4.5 0.4 -0.2 0.4 ..
Saudi Arabia 1.2 1.0 -4.2 -4.7 6.2 -18.7 -30.7 1.8 5.5 -0.6 -0.8 0.9 ..
Iran 0.4 1.1 -2.7 -2.9 3.6 1.3 -9.9 7.0 -1.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 ..
Egypt 0.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Algeria .. 3.9 0.9 1.1 -0.5 -1.9 -11.1 0.9 12.4 1.1 -0.3 -0.2 ..
South Asia 1.6 6.8 10.6 9.1 4.1 -3.7 1.9 15.5 20.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 2.1
India 1.3 6.7 10.6 9.8 4.4 -2.8 4.2 15.2 21.6 1.3 0.9 -0.9 2.2
Pakistan 0.2 6.7 10.6 5.5 -0.6 -7.7 -20.0 12.1 17.9 1.2 -4.0 9.1 ..
Bangla desh 0.1 .. 10.8 5.6 -28.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sri Lanka 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.2 .. 4.1 6.3 3.6 -13.0 -16.5 -4.7 11.7 -0.1 0.9 0.7 ..
South Africa 0.4 2.5 4.7 4.6 0.9 -26.7 -22.4 -11.3 11.5 -2.6 3.2 0.4 0.7
Nige ria 0.3 .. 0.7 0.2 -24.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Memo:
OECD 75.9 1.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing excl. China 16.6 3.5 5.1 5.4 1.8 -18.6 -11.9 5.9 11.7 -0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0
Developing oil exporters 2.9 0.8 3.7 3.7 1.0 -14.5 -11.9 -1.5 7.4 -0.6 0.7 -0.2 2.0
Dev. non-oil exporters 19.9 -213.7 11.7 13.0 8.3 -14.0 3.3 23.1 15.9 0.8 1.4 1.3 ..
Asian high tech exporters .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; perc ent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in pe rce nt change over previous month a/)
aIn general, se ries refer to industrial production exc luding construction (e .g. ma nufac turing, mining and utilitites). Where this is not ava ilable the
closest proxy is use d, often manufa cturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer.
January 28, 2010
page 13 External Environment for Developing Countries
Weights Average 2009 2009 2009 2009
1995 1999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec
Real GDP a
High-income c ountries 78.6 2.3 2.6 0.3 .. -8.8 0.5 2.6 .. .. .. .. ..
Industrial c ountries 75.4 2.3 2.5 0.3 .. -7.9 0.0 2.0 .. .. .. .. ..
United Sta te s 11.0 2.6 2.1 0.4 .. -6.4 -0.7 2.2 .. .. .. .. ..
Japan 20.6 1.3 2.3 -1.2 .. -11.9 2.7 1.3 .. .. .. .. ..
Euro Are a 27.2 2.0 2.7 0.5 .. -9.3 -0.5 1.7 .. .. .. .. ..
United Kindgom 6.5 2.6 2.6 0.5 .. -9.7 -2.7 -0.6 .. .. .. .. ..
Other high income 3.2 4.3 6.1 1.8 .. -30.4 17.2 24.5 .. .. .. .. ..
Hong Kong (China ) 0.7 .. 6.4 2.4 .. -38.1 7.4 34.0 .. .. .. .. ..
Singapore 0.4 5.6 7.8 1.2 .. -12.2 21.7 14.2 .. .. .. .. ..
Ta iwan (China) 1.4 3.8 6.0 0.7 .. -39.6 29.2 32.7 .. .. .. .. ..
Real merchandise impor ts b
High-income c ountries 100.0 .. 10.4 2.2 .. -36.4 1.4 38.9 -84.7 8.9 -0.3 -21.2 ..
Industrial c ountries 88.3 .. 10.4 1.8 .. -35.5 -1.1 40.1 -85.5 9.2 -0.2 -23.8 ..
United Sta te s 23.8 8.2 1.1 -3.7 .. -43.4 -16.7 22.4 -79.8 9.1 -4.6 2.1 ..
Japan 6.7 5.2 -0.1 13.4 .. -52.9 -8.2 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Euro Are a 37.1 .. 13.9 6.7 .. -30.8 0.6 47.2 -90.1 9.9 1.3 -43.1 ..
United Kindgom 6.7 6.3 10.5 -9.7 .. -47.4 8.2 22.1 -98.6 7.6 -0.8 .. ..
Other high income 11.7 5.5 17.0 3.1 .. -34.3 13.9 46.0 -74.9 6.8 -0.5 -3.2 ..
Hong Kong (China ) 4.1 6.6 10.2 2.9 .. -43.6 32.2 16.8 -74.6 6.6 1.6 0.1 ..
Singapore 2.3 5.2 6.3 9.7 .. -34.7 -5.3 23.1 7.4 6.3 -4.9 1.3 ..
Ta iwan (China) 2.2 6.2 -1.1 0.0 .. -57.4 72.4 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Import Prices c
High-income c ountries 100.0 .. 4.0 10.4 0.0 -19.6 -5.1 2.4 12.2 0.6 1.4 2.0 ..
Industrial c ountries 88.3 .. 3.8 10.3 0.0 -19.1 -5.5 1.5 13.7 0.4 1.4 3.0 ..
United Sta te s 23.8 -0.1 4.2 11.4 0.0 -20.1 -1.9 6.5 30.8 1.7 2.6 2.7 2.1
Japan 6.7 -1.4 7.5 8.7 0.0 -40.9 -9.3 -6.2 24.0 0.3 0.6 5.0 2.5
Euro Are a 37.1 .. 5.3 8.2 0.0 -19.3 -3.2 1.0 16.0 1.0 0.9 5.6 ..
United Kindgom 6.7 -1.1 1.1 13.2 0.0 4.2 -6.4 1.2 3.4 1.2 2.2 -0.8 -6.7
Other high income 11.7 -1.0 0.9 12.5 0.0 -20.0 -16.9 -2.1 -1.0 .. .. .. ..
Hong Kong (China ) 4.1 -1.2 -0.4 3.0 0.0 -4.7 -2.1 1.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.1
Singapore 2.3 -0.3 3.5 10.6 0.0 -22.1 7.7 4.0 -54.7 -9.7 -6.0 -11.3 -0.2
Ta iwan (China) 2.2 -1.6 9.0 8.8 0.0 -8.3 -9.1 11.1 22.3 0.5 2.3 2.0 1.5
Real effective exchange rates d
Euro Are a 33.5 1.3 4.1 4.2 -5.0 -6.5 -8.5 -5.1 0.6 0.7 1.0 -3.9 -1.6
United Sta te s 14.4 -1.1 -4.6 -3.7 10.8 19.6 18.7 11.7 -4.5 -1.4 -2.0 0.2 1.8
Japan 7.4 -1.2 -6.6 9.8 13.7 24.5 16.3 18.3 -1.4 2.7 -0.3 1.2 1.8
United Kindgom 5.4 -2.4 2.1 -12.0 -8.2 -17.1 -9.9 -6.1 1.4 -2.4 -1.6 3.7 -0.6
Canada 3.5 -0.6 0.8 -8.3 -7.6 -20.5 -12.8 -5.1 11.7 0.2 2.8 0.7 1.7
Hong Kong (China ) 3.5 -2.7 -4.7 -5.5 6.7 7.3 9.8 8.6 1.6 -0.9 1.3 0.6 1.7
Korea, Rep. 2.5 -1.7 -2.0 -15.9 -13.3 -27.1 -16.7 -14.5 11.1 1.0 2.2 0.9 -1.5
Singapore 2.3 1.3 6.9 4.6 -9.2 -3.9 -9.5 -12.2 -10.8 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 -3.3
Ta iwan (China) 2.1 -2.3 -1.3 -4.2 -9.3 -10.6 -11.9 -10.1 -4.1 -0.3 -0.8 0.4 -4.4
Switzerland 1.7 0.0 -4.9 2.2 9.1 7.7 8.9 11.5 8.5 1.3 1.7 2.1 1.5
Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicate d; perc ent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates e xcept monthly figures, which
are m/m change)
a/ Re al GDP aggrega te d using 1995 weights.
b/ On a customs or BoP basis, as available. Weights are 1995 merchandise import: aggregate calculated as sum of components.
c/ Aggregate prices are implicit prices of aggrega te US dollar value divided by aggregate constant 1995 dollar volume.
d/ JP Morgan Tra de Weighted Indice s (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period in question.
January 28, 2010
page 14 External Environment for Developing Countries
Weights Average 2009 2009 2009 2009 Latest
1995 1999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec 20-Jan
Polic y Rates
United States .. 3.44 5.02 1.93 0.16 0.19 0.18 0.15 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
Japa n .. 0.33 0.70 0.70 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
Euro Area .. .. 3.84 3.89 1.28 1.99 1.13 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
United Kindgom .. 4.80 5.51 4.67 0.65 1.09 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Ten year bond
United States .. 4.70 4.63 3.66 2.67 2.67 3.25 3.51 3.42 3.34 3.43 3.48 3.48
Japa n .. 1.49 1.67 1.49 1.34 1.28 1.43 1.34 1.31 1.31 1.37 1.24 1.24
Euro Area .. .. 4.20 4.00 3.25 3.12 3.35 3.33 3.22 3.24 3.26 3.16 3.16
United Kindgom .. 4.77 5.01 4.52 3.65 3.48 3.56 3.79 3.77 3.64 3.80 3.87 3.87
Spreads (Basis points)b,c
Developing countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
East Asia and Pacific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
China .. 82 71 166 126 184 134 111 76 84 85 61 47
Indonesia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Thailand .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Malaysia .. 129 87 201 230 352 243 166 160 165 166 149 141
Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Russia n Federation .. 262 121 328 443 694 453 378 245 258 249 229 198
Turkey .. 404 214 383 367 537 380 306 244 261 247 225 206
Poland .. 99 61 159 222 311 250 185 142 136 156 134 138
Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Latin America and Caribbean .. 522 187 400 463 662 493 385 314 321 323 300 278
Brazil .. 551 180 301 306 431 324 254 216 226 219 202 196
Mexico .. 206 126 254 302 436 312 246 212 223 211 202 190
Argentina .. 2920 320 858 1198 1696 1458 922 716 707 725 718 691
Colombia .. 370 161 305 329 489 346 270 213 218 214 208 199
Middle East and North Africa .. .. 96 277 286 433 317 208 184 154 197 201 170
Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Egypt .. .. 86 262 134 251 133 97 57 48 92 31 27
Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Asia d .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
India .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Pakistan .. .. 283 1040 1186 1943 1340 841 620 603 598 659 687
Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sri Lanka .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Afric a .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Africa .. 172 100 329 301 461 333 223 187 178 206 176 167
Nigeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Gross inflows e
Developing countries .. .. 149 211 348 48 62 99 139 54 40 45 ..
East Asia and Pacific .. .. 41 49 95 15 19 22 38 9 14 15 ..
Europe and Central Asia .. .. 35 64 71 6 16 21 28 10 10 8 ..
Latin America and Carribean .. .. 45 65 130 21 16 37 57 30 11 16 ..
Middle East and North Africa .. .. 15 11 4 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 ..
South Asia .. .. 3 7 31 3 7 11 10 4 3 3 ..
Sub-Saharan Afric a .. .. 10 16 17 1 4 7 3 0 2 1 ..
Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)
a/Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures, except the last month, which are the values reported on the mentioned date. Quarterly and
Annual figure s are simple averages of the monthly figures.
b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.
c/Aggregates as define d by JP Morgan.
d/Ea st Asia a nd Pacific including South Asian c ountries.
e/In billions of US dollars.
January 28, 2010
page 15 External Environment for Developing Countries
Weightsb Average 2009 2009 2009
1990 1999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec
Ener gy 100.00 .. 244.8 342.0 214.3 166.3 204.5 230.3 256.0 249.9 261.5 256.5
Coal, Austra lia 4.70 15.8 250.4 484.2 273.3 274.0 253.3 271.7 294.4 270.7 300.2 312.4
Crude oil, average 84.60 22.2 251.9 343.6 218.8 156.3 209.7 241.6 267.5 262.4 274.7 265.3
Natural gas , Europe 10.80 18.7 221.7 347.5 225.7 309.5 212.1 179.0 202.3 197.0 202.4 207.6
Non-energy 100.00 .. 224.7 272.0 213.1 189.9 207.8 219.8 235.1 228.3 235.3 241.7
Agriculture 64.80 .. 180.3 229.5 197.7 181.9 197.1 199.5 212.4 206.6 213.2 217.3
Beve rages 8.40 .. 169.9 210.0 219.9 197.9 207.3 226.4 248.0 246.0 245.4 252.6
Cocoa 3.10 4.4 215.5 284.5 319.0 286.4 284.7 327.2 377.5 371.0 373.7 388.0
Coffee , arabica 3.00 0.3 141.9 160.5 165.2 147.9 166.8 168.1 178.0 177.5 174.8 181.6
Coffee , robusta 0.80 2.4 209.1 254.2 180.1 192.6 181.0 175.3 171.3 177.5 167.8 168.7
Food 40.00 .. 184.7 247.4 205.0 190.4 209.8 206.4 213.5 207.8 215.3 217.4
Fats and oils 16.30 .. 209.0 277.3 216.2 191.4 227.9 220.9 224.5 217.0 225.6 231.0
Pa lm oil 4.90 3.5 251.5 305.7 220.1 186.1 239.5 218.7 235.9 219.2 233.7 255.0
Soybean meal 4.30 9.6 163.0 224.4 215.5 192.7 224.0 227.7 217.7 218.1 223.1 212.0
Soybeans 4.00 8.0 181.3 246.8 206.3 186.0 217.5 214.3 207.4 201.6 207.7 212.9
Grains 11.20 .. 189.0 281.7 214.9 221.3 225.3 202.3 210.8 201.0 214.3 217.0
Maize 4.60 8.1 184.9 252.0 186.9 188.5 198.8 170.9 189.6 189.0 193.9 185.9
Rice, Thailand, 5% 3.40 7.9 161.3 321.2 274.2 289.7 272.9 266.3 267.9 243.6 268.2 292.0
Wheat, US, HRW 2.80 10.0 223.7 285.8 196.4 203.0 219.6 183.0 180.0 174.3 185.0 180.8
Other food 12.40 .. 149.0 177.1 181.5 161.3 172.1 191.2 201.4 201.8 202.7 199.8
Bananas, U S 1.90 5.6 159.4 199.1 199.8 210.2 202.4 194.9 191.6 190.9 196.6 187.2
Sugar, world 3.90 0.6 123.2 156.5 221.4 160.0 188.0 260.6 277.0 276.8 272.2 281.8
Raw materials 16.50 .. 174.9 195.7 168.7 153.1 161.1 168.9 191.7 183.7 191.8 199.4
Cotton ("A" Index) 1.90 0.9 107.1 120.9 106.2 92.8 101.7 109.0 121.3 113.1 121.1 129.9
Rubber, Singapore 3.70 13.6 339.2 387.6 287.9 218.9 249.4 298.8 384.5 352.6 381.0 419.9
Sawnwood, Ma laysia 6.70 6.3 135.6 149.5 135.5 136.8 139.5 129.7 135.8 135.4 138.1 133.8
Fertilizers 3.60 .. 240.1 566.7 293.0 376.6 300.6 252.1 242.8 242.7 242.2 243.5
Triple superphospha te 0.70 17.7 246.2 638.6 186.9 233.6 179.8 163.1 171.1 179.0 165.9 168.5
Metals and minerals 31.60 .. 314.0 325.7 235.6 185.0 219.0 257.6 280.8 271.2 279.8 291.4
Aluminum 8.40 6.6 170.3 166.1 107.5 87.8 95.9 117.0 129.3 121.3 125.8 140.7
Copper 12.10 15.4 392.5 383.6 284.0 189.1 257.1 323.1 366.6 346.7 368.1 385.0
Gold .. 11.5 249.7 312.4 348.7 325.6 330.3 344.1 394.8 373.8 403.9 406.7
Nickel 2.50 16.4 431.0 244.4 169.7 121.2 149.6 204.9 202.9 214.5 196.7 197.6
Memo:
Crude Oil (US$) .. 22.2 71.1 97.0 61.8 44.1 59.2 68.2 75.5 74.1 77.6 74.9
Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)
a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices a re computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars for low- and middle-income
economies, rebased to 1990.
b/ Energy and gold prices a re not included in the index.
January 28, 2010
page 16 External Environment for Developing Countries
Weights Average 2008 2009 2009 2009
2000 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q4 Q 1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Oct Nov
Export valuesDeveloping countries 100.0 11.1 23.0 19.7 20.8 -56.2 -54.9 9.3 32.9 -0.5 7.7 3.3 1.8
East Asia and Pacific 36.3 18.5 23.4 22.0 16.7 -41.1 -49.1 2.9 28.3 -0.9 7.7 4.4 -0.5
China 16.7 22.8 27.1 26.3 17.4 -33.8 -53.8 2.6 25.6 -2.1 8.8 3.1 0.0
Indonesia 4.2 .. 17.7 13.2 20.2 -56.0 -51.1 37.0 43.8 8.9 -1.2 20.9 -6.3
Thaila nd 4.6 12.6 16.9 18.6 15.8 -55.9 -19.2 -10.1 41.8 0.4 9.3 1.3 -1.3
Europe and Central Asia 20.7 18.9 23.0 22.0 29.3 -70.0 -61.4 9.9 51.9 -0.2 10.8 3.4 2.2
Russian Federa tion 7.1 20.3 24.9 16.4 33.9 -71.2 -77.5 31.8 53.6 2.6 8.8 3.7 8.3
Turkey 1.8 17.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Poland 2.1 19.7 24.2 26.4 21.9 -69.9 -35.7 19.4 .. -2.3 .. .. ..
Latin America and Caribbea n 24.0 8.3 19.7 13.2 11.8 -55.1 -46.6 16.0 7.5 -0.9 7.8 0.4 7.9
Brazil 3.7 14.5 16.1 16.9 22.7 -45.5 -62.8 46.2 -22.0 -2.0 3.8 0.6 3.8
Me xico 11.2 9.5 16.8 8.7 7.4 -56.4 -44.5 -1.8 24.7 0.6 9.9 -0.2 11.1
Argentina 1.8 10.2 15.4 20.1 25.8 -72.9 -30.1 42.2 -33.0 -13.0 10.5 -1.7 12.9
Middle Ea st and North Africa 8.3 21.8 31.4 16.2 37.1 -71.1 -74.4 15.3 45.4 1.9 4.2 .. ..
Saudi Arabia 5.2 21.7 26.7 6.5 43.5 -66.8 -83.7 12.6 71.2 -5.9 21.5 .. ..
I ran 1.9 .. 37.3 17.9 30.3 -72.9 -82.0 27.3 95.7 -10.5 1.8 .. ..
Egypt 0.3 23.3 31.5 18.5 56.5 -71.4 -7.0 41.5 36.0 23.6 -1.2 .. ..
South Asia 4.3 15.8 19.1 18.4 24.2 -59.0 -46.8 14.3 58.1 2.8 2.2 2.9 3.4
India 2.8 18.4 21.4 21.9 26.3 -63.4 -47.0 20.1 64.4 3.5 1.0 2.6 4.3
Pakistan 0.6 9.1 5.0 2.6 16.0 -24.5 -40.8 2.5 .. 0.5 .. .. ..
Bangla desh 0.4 11.6 23.9 8.3 23.2 -49.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 16.8 24.2 20.1 27.9 -69.3 -70.0 32.5 60.5 -1.7 6.2 .. ..
South Africa 2.0 11.8 11.8 21.2 15.2 -68.6 -45.8 4.5 .. -6.4 .. .. ..
Nige ria 1.4 21.0 32.5 15.6 29.7 -70.1 -88.7 150.9 37.7 -0.9 8.1 .. ..
Export prices b, c
Developing countries 100.0 .. 9.0 5.6 17.9 -19.3 -37.1 -14.3 -5.7 1.7 0.6 0.8 -1.9
East Asia and Pacific 36.3 .. 3.6 5.7 9.8 -6.5 -26.1 -4.5 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 -1.3
China 16.7 0.0 2.0 5.6 8.2 -2.3 -23.8 -2.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.9
Indonesia 4.2 .. 14.4 8.0 20.8 -41.4 -41.6 -21.4 3.7 3.2 1.0 4.7 -3.4
Thaila nd 4.6 5.7 5.3 5.7 10.4 -17.5 -5.7 2.5 13.9 2.0 1.1 1.4 1.5
Europe and Central Asia 20.7 .. 11.9 5.5 27.1 -20.5 -47.9 -30.2 -17.5 2.3 0.9 0.5 -3.2
Russian Federa tion 7.1 .. 21.0 3.9 43.4 -13.3 -55.2 -55.5 -35.9 2.8 0.8 2.9 -8.5
Turkey 1.8 3.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Poland 2.1 -0.9 2.6 5.6 11.1 -7.5 -25.9 -7.7 -0.7 0.5 0.3 0.8 -4.6
Latin America and Caribbea n 24.0 1.0 11.9 7.1 18.2 -26.9 -36.5 -11.0 -0.3 2.3 1.3 1.8 -2.4
Brazil 3.7 5.4 6.6 7.5 23.2 -24.5 -35.5 -5.1 1.2 2.9 -0.2 2.8 -9.8
Me xico 11.2 5.8 6.8 4.6 16.2 3.7 -36.1 -22.9 -12.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 -1.0
Argentina 1.8 5.3 11.9 17.9 32.1 -51.4 -35.2 -8.8 -14.9 3.8 -1.2 4.2 -3.8
Middle Ea st and North Africa 8.3 .. 30.1 3.5 45.8 -22.7 -62.3 -53.5 -41.1 8.3 -1.6 .. ..
Saudi Arabia 5.2 23.8 22.7 5.8 54.0 -55.2 -92.7 -7.7 110.0 15.8 -3.2 14.9 -26.3
Iran 1.9 .. 31.3 1.3 53.6 5.1 -60.4 -69.1 -54.1 3.1 1.2 1.0 -1.5
Egypt 0.3 .. 12.8 4.2 32.6 -12.6 -46.5 -42.8 -23.9 2.3 1.0 2.2 -8.1
South Asia 4.3 2.4 5.1 5.8 17.8 -7.0 -29.6 -19.2 4.3 -0.4 0.4 0.3 -3.1
India 2.8 4.3 5.7 5.9 18.4 -5.5 -35.9 -12.8 -3.2 0.7 0.4 0.8 -5.4
Pakistan 0.6 0.5 3.8 4.1 30.6 2.0 5.7 -62.7 58.1 1.9 1.5 -0.1 0.9
Bangla desh 0.4 -6.7 1.7 5.4 6.4 1.6 -22.7 0.7 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4
Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 .. 20.3 5.0 29.8 -33.7 -47.2 -24.6 -21.5 3.7 1.2 .. ..
South Africa 2.0 6.9 7.5 8.4 7.6 -52.9 -3.1 35.8 32.9 0.8 3.2 -18.6 -12.7
Nige ria 1.4 .. 33.1 1.1 55.5 6.9 -61.2 -70.8 -56.4 3.0 1.3 1.2 -0.5
Table A.5 Developing countries' merchandise export growth
January 28, 2010
page 17 External Environment for Developing Countries
Weights Average 2008 2009 2009 2009
2000 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q4 Q 1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Oct Nov
Import values
Developing countries 100.0 15.8 19.4 21.9 25.3 -53.3 -57.7 17.4 36.9 -2.2 8.4 0.8 4.4
East Asia and Pacific 35.2 18.7 16.9 18.8 21.1 -52.5 -55.4 63.1 44.2 -4.1 10.5 1.9 2.7
China 19.3 23.2 20.1 20.7 18.7 -52.6 -51.6 85.0 38.4 -4.9 10.9 1.7 2.3
Indonesia 2.1 16.8 6.0 21.9 73.0 -51.3 -72.4 21.7 79.5 8.5 -4.2 11.9 -0.4
Thaila nd 4.2 15.5 9.0 8.6 27.8 -51.4 -71.8 12.0 73.2 -6.0 20.7 -2.8 5.3
Europe and Central Asia 24.1 17.2 25.6 30.3 26.3 -63.6 -64.7 -7.5 40.8 1.3 11.9 0.5 ..
Russian Federa tion 3.9 17.5 30.4 36.4 32.0 -55.5 -74.1 -9.2 18.6 -0.9 12.5 2.4 4.8
Turkey 3.2 16.0 19.4 21.9 19.2 -75.0 -50.7 1.7 47.0 3.8 1.1 5.6 -0.4
Poland 3.6 16.1 25.4 30.3 26.3 -65.2 -58.2 -1.2 .. 3.0 .. .. ..
Latin America and Caribbea n 22.9 10.1 19.6 19.0 22.1 -44.6 -58.0 -15.1 24.0 -5.1 9.8 -5.0 8.6
Brazil 3.2 11.6 23.9 31.9 43.5 -45.0 -67.8 -16.1 31.0 -5.9 18.6 -2.0 6.0
Me xico 11.6 9.4 15.5 10.1 9.8 -50.9 -55.7 -10.5 36.9 -3.2 9.6 -5.7 11.8
Argentina 0.6 6.2 18.9 30.6 28.8 -53.1 -72.3 5.3 17.1 -3.4 10.0 -1.6 6.6
Middle Ea st and North Africa 6.9 14.7 9.7 23.0 44.7 -33.7 -40.7 14.0 10.8 -4.0 1.0 .. ..
Saudi Arabia 2.0 14.4 19.7 29.2 24.9 -36.5 -54.3 24.4 45.6 -12.1 6.9 .. ..
I ran 1.4 17.1 4.5 10.9 55.1 -8.8 -69.4 42.7 44.5 0.6 3.6 .. ..
Egypt 0.8 11.7 3.9 31.6 77.8 -32.9 -38.2 -31.7 59.7 0.5 -8.1 .. ..
South Asia 5.5 19.0 20.5 21.4 38.3 -61.7 -67.3 13.6 56.0 5.9 -2.5 6.6 7.4
India 3.7 21.3 21.7 24.7 41.9 -65.0 -72.6 17.6 68.0 8.2 -4.4 7.7 8.5
Pakistan 0.7 16.5 17.2 9.5 25.5 -46.9 -47.7 65.8 .. -3.9 .. .. ..
Bangla desh 0.5 12.3 15.5 15.4 28.9 -37.9 0.5 -38.9 29.9 2.3 -2.5 .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 14.9 23.1 21.7 23.8 -45.2 -46.7 -7.3 .. 0.3 .. .. ..
South Africa 1.9 13.2 23.2 18.0 11.5 -69.8 -43.0 -35.5 .. 4.0 .. .. ..
Nige ria 0.5 21.8 19.2 33.5 37.4 -31.9 -54.1 20.2 38.5 -2.4 10.6 .. ..
Import prices b,c
Developing countries 100.0 .. 6.4 5.1 15.1 -10.2 -28.5 -14.4 -5.6 0.9 -0.1 0.6 -1.2
East Asia and Pacific 35.2 .. 5.7 4.7 16.4 -2.7 -34.9 -17.5 -8.7 1.0 0.2 0.6 -2.2
China 19.3 .. 6.1 5.6 17.1 -5.8 -36.5 -16.8 -8.0 1.2 0.1 1.0 -5.1
Indonesia 2.1 .. 11.8 4.7 28.0 -3.8 -44.4 -36.8 -24.2 1.3 0.0 1.2 -6.3
Thaila nd 4.2 3.9 0.2 -4.0 8.7 -14.8 2.7 -2.1 -1.6 0.6 0.2 0.4 1.3
Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. 6.7 4.0 7.8 -15.5 -19.9 -0.5 1.1 0.2 -0.7 1.1 ..
Russian Federa tion 3.9 1.7 3.1 4.6 10.4 -7.6 -24.5 -4.2 2.9 1.0 0.5 0.7 -3.6
Turkey 3.2 5.2 9.8 11.0 -1.0 -53.3 -22.7 32.1 27.3 0.5 -1.5 1.3 -1.4
Poland 3.6 -0.2 6.9 -1.8 -0.5 29.6 22.5 6.2 -10.6 -1.5 -5.3 -17.5 3.1
Latin America and Caribbea n 22.9 4.1 5.0 6.3 14.2 -17.4 -21.2 -13.8 -1.3 0.2 1.4 -0.2 0.7
Brazil 3.2 5.6 6.9 8.2 22.0 -23.5 -21.8 -22.8 2.9 0.4 1.7 1.3 0.3
Me xico 11.6 3.3 4.6 5.4 8.4 -14.1 -7.9 -5.8 -0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7
Argentina 0.6 1.8 2.4 6.5 11.0 -23.9 -22.6 -15.9 -2.3 -0.6 0.9 0.2 -1.3
Middle Ea st and North Africa 6.9 .. 6.3 6.5 18.7 -18.9 -23.9 -18.0 -5.6 1.8 -0.9 .. ..
Saudi Arabia 2.0 .. 2.3 5.5 11.7 -5.9 -23.8 -6.6 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 -5.8
Iran 1.4 .. 4.7 5.9 20.2 -10.5 -32.7 -21.9 -8.1 0.5 0.1 0.9 -12.1
Egypt 0.8 .. 6.2 7.8 17.7 -23.6 -31.7 -6.9 -6.3 1.3 -0.5 2.2 -5.3
South Asia 5.5 2.3 14.8 6.8 29.7 -13.3 -43.1 -32.7 -14.0 2.2 0.4 1.2 -1.2
India 3.7 3.3 16.6 5.5 30.1 -9.3 -42.1 -37.7 -19.7 1.7 1.3 1.2 -1.2
Pakistan 0.7 9.6 11.4 11.3 48.3 -14.5 -45.3 -40.8 6.9 0.8 1.3 -3.6 -2.2
Bangla desh 0.5 -6.2 5.1 6.5 17.4 -14.5 -28.9 -9.2 -4.2 0.9 -0.2 1.1 -4.4
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 .. 6.4 5.1 16.7 -3.8 -33.0 -16.2 -5.5 0.6 .. .. ..
South Africa 1.9 5.8 5.5 5.5 13.3 -3.3 -30.2 -12.0 -3.3 0.7 0.4 0.5 -1.3
Nige ria 0.5 .. 5.5 4.9 16.0 -5.2 -30.8 -13.1 -5.8 0.5 -0.2 0.6 -5.3
Table A.6 Developing countries' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicate d; perc ent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates e xcept monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)
/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.) , customs basis.
/b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.
/c In many cases countries a re very la te in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely f igures individual trade prices were updated using the
media n (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) c ountries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight re ported.
January 28, 2010
page 18 External Environment for Developing Countries
US$ bn. % GDP 2008 2009 2009 2009
2008 2008 2006 2007 2008 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q 3 Aug Sep Oct Nov
World -168.7 -0.3 181.4 54.7 -116.6 -34.9 -13.4 133.0 61.3 47.0 2.2 140.9 -36.8
High-income c ountries a -418.9 -1.0 -95.4 -210.3 -271.1 -102.5 -121.3 84.0 35.9 -6.1 -30.3 9.0 -70.1
Industrial c ountries -499.8 -1.2 -299.5 -391.0 -531.0 -272.0 -197.4 -15.8 -63.7 -102.4 -144.1 -120.9 -156.3
United Sta te s -706.1 -5.0 -891.0 -870.8 -881.5 -733.8 -547.0 -500.7 -542.9 -522.9 -589.6 -541.3 -577.0
Japan 183.2 3.7 640.8 707.9 775.8 682.0 491.0 530.4 .. 573.8 .. .. ..
Euro Are a -19.6 -0.2 -217.1 -342.4 -583.0 -362.5 -286.8 -225.1 -315.0 -332.7 -382.0 -411.7 -295.8
United Kindgom -73.6 -2.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Other high income 80.9 4.2 237.8 256.4 283.2 259.5 269.1 316.9 327.5 311.3 342.4 331.9 299.4
Hong Kong (China ) 30.5 12.8 -18.3 -23.3 -26.1 -21.2 -19.1 -18.2 -38.0 -35.7 -42.1 -41.0 -37.8
Singapore 26.9 13.9 32.9 36.2 18.6 11.9 15.3 25.3 .. 26.7 .. .. ..
Ta iwan (China) 24.9 6.0 20.3 26.6 15.6 16.0 36.9 30.1 .. 28.2 .. .. ..
Developing countries 293.5 1.8 276.8 265.0 154.5 67.6 107.9 48.9 25.4 53.1 32.5 131.9 33.4
East Asia and Pacific 469.7 9.6 240.4 333.2 325.9 401.3 380.7 231.8 202.6 225.5 203.0 251.9 197.6
China 426.1 11.5 173.2 262.6 295.7 375.4 300.1 171.6 156.9 167.5 160.8 181.3 155.8
Indonesia 0.6 0.1 39.7 39.6 8.2 3.4 15.5 19.4 15.8 15.4 18.3 31.1 22.6
Thaila nd -0.1 0.0 0.9 14.0 -0.6 -7.4 28.0 20.8 16.0 22.9 10.8 17.1 7.3
Ma laysia 38.9 19.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Europe and Central Asia .. .. -0.4 -53.8 -45.0 -68.5 -38.7 -10.2 2.7 1.6 -5.5 17.1 ..
Russian Federa tion 102.4 6.0 140.6 131.1 179.8 116.0 73.5 96.3 119.8 121.5 125.5 132.6 150.9
Turkey -41.3 -5.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Poland -29.0 -5.6 -16.2 -25.5 -38.4 -34.6 -15.6 -9.7 .. -16.3 .. .. ..
Czech Republic -6.6 -3.0 1.8 4.4 4.1 -0.6 3.0 8.4 11.0 10.7 10.4 12.6 9.0
Latin America and Caribbea n -21.6 -0.5 27.6 -2.5 -74.1 -105.7 -51.6 -4.9 -27.2 -13.8 -26.9 8.2 4.9
Brazil -28.2 -1.7 46.3 40.4 24.6 21.5 21.3 40.8 23.1 29.9 13.9 17.5 15.2
Me xico -15.8 -1.6 -5.9 -10.0 -17.6 -25.8 -9.3 -4.1 -9.8 -6.8 -7.0 6.7 5.7
Argentina 7.6 2.6 12.3 11.2 12.7 8.8 17.5 22.0 14.9 12.4 13.9 13.5 17.8
Colombia -6.7 -3.0 -1.7 -2.9 -2.1 -6.1 -0.7 -0.1 -0.6 2.2 1.9 2.5 ..
Middle Ea st and North Africa .. .. 62.5 60.8 67.2 -4.1 -53.5 -54.6 -40.1 -37.1 -29.8 .. ..
Saudi Arabia 132.9 27.3 125.8 117.9 186.1 137.2 66.6 66.2 80.1 71.2 100.9 .. ..
I ran 0.0 0.0 40.0 50.0 53.9 30.0 12.9 12.1 19.3 16.4 15.5 .. ..
Egypt -1.3 -0.8 -6.9 -10.8 -22.7 -30.1 -24.7 -18.8 -22.1 -21.8 -18.3 .. ..
Algeria 0.0 0.0 33.1 31.9 39.8 25.5 4.7 0.5 6.8 7.9 13.6 .. ..
South Asia .. -74.2 -94.7 -157.2 -143.6 -89.1 -91.7 -101.8 -109.7 -97.8 -111.6 -128.2
India .. .. -52.7 -69.0 -120.9 -114.5 -62.4 -64.3 -74.0 -82.5 -70.1 -83.8 -98.0
Pakistan -15.7 -9.8 -13.0 -15.4 -21.0 -15.1 -12.3 -16.1 .. -13.5 .. .. ..
Bangla desh .. .. -2.9 -4.2 -6.1 -6.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sri Lanka .. .. -3.4 -3.6 -5.8 -4.9 -2.8 -2.0 .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa -29.9 -3.0 20.9 22.1 37.8 -11.7 -40.0 -21.4 .. -13.5 .. .. ..
South Africa -21.0 -7.5 -9.9 -9.8 -8.3 -6.6 -6.4 0.8 .. -1.8 .. .. ..
Nige ria 20.3 9.3 28.4 27.6 32.8 13.4 -5.3 2.6 2.8 3.3 2.4 .. ..
Memo:
OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing excl. China .. .. 103.6 2.4 -141.2 -307.8 -192.2 -122.7 -131.5 -114.4 -128.4 -49.4 ..
Developing oil exporters 191.2 .. 306.2 275.4 313.7 110.9 68.4 108.4 133.3 142.2 147.9 214.4 ..
Developing non-oil e xporters .. .. -29.4 -10.4 -159.2 -43.3 39.5 -59.5 -107.9 -89.1 -115.4 -82.5 -168.6
Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances(Billion US dollars; annual rate s)
a/ Seasonally adjusted
CAB
January 28, 2010
page 19 External Environment for Developing Countries
WeightsAverage
Levelb2009 2009 2009 2009 Latest
1995 2000-09 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oc t Nov Dec 19-Ja n
World 100.0 94.0 5.8 3.5 -6.0 -13.8 -12.4 -6.0 8.2 1.6 0.7 -1.4 -0.5
High-income c ountries 78.3 .. 6.1 3.9 -4.9 -13.2 -11.8 -4.3 10.1 1.5 0.7 -1.6 -0.4
Industrial c ountries 70.6 .. 7.0 4.1 -5.2 -14.4 -12.8 -4.5 11.5 1.7 0.9 -1.9 -0.5
United Sta te s (SDR/USD) 15.7 0.7 4.0 3.2 -2.4 -6.5 -6.6 -1.7 5.6 0.8 0.6 -1.2 -0.7
Japan 7.4 112.0 -1.2 13.9 10.4 12.3 7.4 15.0 7.0 1.2 1.3 -1.0 -2.0
Euro Are a 29.5 .. 9.1 6.9 -5.0 -13.1 -12.9 -4.7 12.2 1.8 0.6 -2.3 -1.0
United Kindgom 5.6 0.6 8.7 -8.1 -15.3 -27.7 -21.5 -14.0 4.3 -0.8 2.5 -2.3 -0.4
Other high income 7.7 101.4 0.4 2.6 -2.2 -3.3 -4.0 -2.2 0.7 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.5
Hong Kong (China ) 3.7 7.8 -0.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Singapore 2.3 1.6 5.4 6.5 -2.7 -6.8 -7.2 -2.9 6.7 1.8 0.6 -0.6 0.2
Ta iwan (China) 2.1 33.0 -0.9 4.1 -4.6 -7.2 -8.1 -4.9 2.1 0.8 0.0 0.2 1.4
Developing countries 21.7 115.5 4.8 2.3 -9.3 -15.4 -14.0 -10.6 2.8 1.7 0.5 -0.5 -0.7
East Asia and Pacific 7.5 100.4 5.6 4.0 -2.8 -7.0 -5.7 -3.2 4.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.8
China 2.7 7.9 4.8 9.5 1.7 4.8 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indonesia 1.1 9360.6 0.2 -5.8 -6.7 -20.5 -11.8 -7.5 16.9 3.9 0.3 0.0 2.3
Thaila nd 1.3 38.9 9.7 3.6 -2.9 -8.3 -7.0 -0.3 4.5 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.5
Ma laysia 1.4 3.7 6.7 3.0 -5.4 -11.0 -9.5 -5.1 4.8 2.6 0.4 -0.7 1.4
Europe and Central Asia 4.3 94.5 8.2 6.0 -18.5 -24.5 -24.8 -20.3 -3.4 2.4 1.1 -2.5 0.2
Russian Federa tion 1.5 28.6 6.3 2.9 -21.7 -28.6 -26.7 -22.5 -7.5 4.4 1.7 -3.7 1.0
Turkey .. 1.3 9.6 0.1 -16.1 -27.4 -19.6 -19.3 3.2 1.2 -1.4 -1.0 2.8
Poland 0.5 3.5 12.1 14.9 -22.8 -30.7 -33.3 -24.9 1.3 0.3 1.9 -1.9 0.7
Czech Republic 0.5 26.6 11.3 18.9 -10.5 -19.7 -18.9 -10.2 9.7 -0.4 0.9 -3.4 -1.3
Latin America and Caribbea n 5.5 142.6 3.1 1.2 -10.4 -18.2 -16.5 -13.4 6.0 1.7 0.7 0.3 -4.2
Brazil 1.1 2.3 11.7 6.2 -8.2 -24.9 -20.2 -10.6 30.9 4.7 0.6 -1.4 0.5
Me xico 1.7 10.8 -0.3 -1.8 -17.6 -24.8 -21.8 -22.3 -0.7 1.3 1.0 1.8 0.7
Argentina 0.4 2.7 -1.3 -1.5 -15.4 -11.1 -16.4 -20.6 -13.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2
Colombia 0.3 2329.3 13.6 5.6 -9.2 -22.2 -21.0 -5.7 16.8 3.6 -3.5 -2.2 2.0
Middle Ea st and North Africa 1.7 163.8 1.9 2.5 -4.7 -5.5 -7.2 -5.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 -0.6 0.2
Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Iran 0.4 .. -1.2 -1.6 .. -5.6 -6.9 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Egypt 0.3 5.2 1.7 3.7 -2.1 -1.6 -4.3 -3.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 -0.5 0.7
Algeria 0.3 73.4 4.8 7.3 -11.0 -8.0 -12.8 -16.1 -7.1 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.7
South Asia 1.2 107.4 5.4 -5.6 -9.6 -18.0 -13.6 -8.7 1.7 2.2 0.2 -0.2 1.0
India 0.8 45.5 9.6 -5.0 -10.1 -20.0 -14.6 -9.5 4.5 3.5 0.3 -0.1 1.7
Pakistan 0.2 62.4 -0.8 -13.7 -13.8 -23.1 -17.9 -10.2 -4.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6
Bangla desh 0.1 62.3 0.1 0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
Sri Lanka 0.1 99.8 -6.1 2.1 -5.8 -5.3 -7.4 -6.2 -4.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 117.9 0.3 -5.0 -9.9 -21.0 -14.8 -9.9 9.1 0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.5
South Africa 0.6 7.7 -3.9 -14.7 -2.5 -25.4 -8.2 -0.2 32.7 0.4 -0.3 0.3 1.6
Nige ria 0.3 124.9 2.3 6.1 -20.7 -19.7 -20.3 -22.9 -19.7 2.1 -0.6 0.9 -0.3
Memo:
OECD 73.7 .. 6.9 4.2 -5.9 -15.0 -13.4 -5.5 11.0 1.6 0.9 -1.8 -0.5
Developing excl. China 19.0 118.7 4.8 1.3 -10.8 -17.9 -16.0 -12.0 3.3 1.9 0.6 -0.6 -0.8
Developing oil exporters 2.8 171.6 0.7 -1.4 -7.6 -13.2 -10.2 -8.5 3.6 2.1 0.1 0.1 -9.1
Developing non-oil exporters 19.0 108.8 5.4 2.9 -9.5 -15.7 -14.5 -10.9 2.7 1.6 0.5 -0.6 0.5
Asian high tech exporte rs .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Table A.8 Exchange Rates (USD/LCU)(annual percent change exc ept monthly data which is change over previous month a/)
a/ An increa se in the USD pe r LCU implies appreciation of the loc al currency. The aggregates c omputed by using tra de weights and rebase d to yea r 2000=100 (bilatera l tota l
trade i.e. imports plus exports in 1995 constant USD).
Aggregates are re ported whe n
January 28, 2010
page 20 External Environment for Developing Countries
Weights Average 2008 2009 2009 2009
1995 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q4 Q 1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Oct Nov
World 2.7 4.8 4.0 4.8 8.8 8.3 5.5 3.1 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.6
High-income c ountries 1.2 3.3 2.5 2.4 4.3 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.0
Industrial c ountries 1.1 3.2 2.3 2.3 3.8 2.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.7
United Sta te s -1.9 3.8 3.2 2.8 3.9 1.6 0.0 -1.2 -1.6 -1.5 -1.2 -0.1 1.9
Japan -2.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 1.0 -0.1 -1.0 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5 -1.8
Euro Are a 0.2 3.3 2.2 2.1 3.3 2.3 1.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.5
United Kindgom 1.4 3.6 2.3 2.3 3.6 3.9 3.0 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.6 2.0
Other high income .. 6.1 2.5 2.3 4.4 3.6 2.4 1.5 .. .. .. .. ..
Hong Kong (China ) 0.0 4.3 2.0 2.0 4.3 2.3 1.7 -0.1 -0.8 -1.5 0.5 2.3 0.6
Singapore -2.2 6.5 1.0 2.1 6.5 5.4 2.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.1
Ta iwan (China) -3.3 3.5 0.6 1.8 3.6 1.8 0.0 -0.8 -1.3 -0.8 -0.8 -1.9 -1.7
Developing countries 8.0 10.4 6.2 6.1 10.4 10.5 7.8 4.8 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.4 ..
East Asia and Pacific 6.4 9.5 6.2 5.5 9.5 9.7 4.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.3 1.4
China -4.0 5.8 -0.3 3.2 1.1 -3.9 -8.0 -8.6 -6.2 -5.8 -5.1 -4.3 -1.7
Indonesia 2.1 9.5 13.1 5.8 9.5 11.5 8.6 5.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5
Thaila nd -1.7 5.5 4.7 2.2 5.5 2.2 -0.2 -2.8 -2.2 -1.0 -1.0 0.5 2.0
Ma laysia -3.2 5.4 3.6 2.0 5.5 5.9 3.8 1.3 -2.3 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 0.0
Europe and Central Asia 6.4 10.4 6.6 8.4 10.7 9.4 8.4 4.2 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.2 2.8
Russian Federa tion 13.3 14.1 9.7 9.0 14.1 13.7 13.8 12.4 11.5 11.7 10.7 9.7 9.1
Turkey 6.5 10.4 9.7 8.7 10.5 10.9 8.4 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.6
Poland 5.3 4.3 1.1 2.4 4.4 3.9 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.7
Czech Republic 0.9 6.3 2.5 2.9 6.4 4.7 2.1 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.6
Latin America and Caribbea n 7.1 8.8 4.3 6.4 8.8 8.6 6.2 4.0 1.9 1.9 2.7 2.8 3.1
Brazil 4.8 5.7 4.2 3.6 5.7 6.2 5.8 5.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.3
Me xico 5.5 5.1 3.6 3.9 5.2 6.2 6.2 6.0 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.5 3.9
Argentina 5.3 8.6 10.9 8.8 8.6 7.8 6.6 5.5 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.6 7.1
Colombia 3.8 7.0 4.3 5.5 7.0 7.8 6.6 4.8 3.2 3.1 3.2 2.8 2.4
Middle Ea st and North Africa .. 13.7 6.2 3.9 14.9 13.8 4.5 3.3 4.2 4.0 4.8 5.0 ..
Saudi Arabia .. 9.9 2.2 4.1 9.9 9.8 6.9 5.3 4.2 4.1 4.4 3.5 4.1
Iran 14.4 25.5 12.0 17.2 25.6 27.9 20.9 15.1 12.1 13.1 9.2 7.6 7.3
Egypt 6.1 18.3 7.7 9.4 18.4 19.7 13.4 10.6 9.9 9.0 10.7 13.2 13.3
Algeria .. 0.1 2.5 3.5 4.4 5.2 5.1 .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Asia 10.6 10.9 7.5 7.6 10.9 14.2 9.6 8.9 9.7 7.6 7.4 8.8 10.6
India 6.7 8.4 6.2 6.3 8.4 10.2 9.6 8.9 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.5 13.4
Pakistan 8.7 20.3 7.9 7.6 20.3 24.3 20.3 14.9 10.6 10.6 10.1 8.8 10.6
Bangla desh 0.4 8.9 6.8 9.1 8.9 6.5 5.7 4.3 4.2 4.6 4.6 .. ..
Sri Lanka 0.9 22.6 10.0 15.8 22.6 17.0 7.9 2.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.4 2.9
Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. 5.4 6.4 10.4 12.1 10.1 7.7 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.9 ..
South Africa .. .. 3.2 6.1 9.8 9.8 8.9 7.8 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.9
Nige ria 9.1 11.6 8.3 5.4 11.6 14.9 14.3 12.5 10.9 11.1 10.5 11.7 12.4
Memo: ..
OECD 1.3 3.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing excl. China .. .. 6.2 6.1 10.4 10.7 7.9 4.8 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.6 ..
Developing oil exporters 13.4 12.0 7.5 5.4 9.9 12.6 11.0 5.8 3.5 4.2 4.1 4.1 ..
Developing non-oil e xporters 7.7 10.3 5.6 6.4 10.4 10.0 7.0 4.0 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.4 ..
Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Table A.9 Global Inflation(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)
a/ Developing country aggregates computed using median. Industrial aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights. World total is GDP weighte d average
of developing a nd high income total. Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by GDP) of countrie s reported da ta in that time period.
For developing countrie s, aggrega te decadal growth rates are median of the decada l growth rates of the components. For high-income countries,
aggrega te decadal growth rate is GDP weighted sum of decadal growth rates of components.
January 28, 2010
page 21 External Environment for Developing Countries
Weights 2009 2009 2009 2009 Latest
1995 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec 19-Jan
World 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
High-income c ountriesb82.8 4.13 2.32 0.44 0.55 0.41 0.39 0.39 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.39
Industrial c ountries 80.6 4.15 2.32 0.44 0.55 0.42 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40
United Sta te s (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 5.02 1.93 0.16 0.19 0.18 0.15 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.70 0.70 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
Euro Are a (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 24.5 3.84 3.89 1.28 1.99 1.13 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
United Kindgom (Clearing bank's base rate) 3.9 5.51 4.67 0.65 1.09 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Other high income 2.2 3.37 2.16 0.31 0.36 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 ..
Hong Kong (Discount rate) 0.5 6.52 3.13 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 ..
Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month ra te) 0.3 2.68 1.15 0.45 0.50 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44
Ta iwan (Inte rbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 1.96 1.93 0.12 0.18 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.12
Developing countries 17.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 6.71 7.18 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31
Indonesia (SBI 90 day rate) 0.7 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18
Thaila nd (14day Repo Rate - BOT) 0.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Ma laysia (Interbank ove rnight rate) 0.3 3.50 3.48 2.11 2.47 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99
Europe and Central Asia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Russian Federa tion (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 10.27 10.87 11.38 13.00 12.23 10.86 9.45 9.98 9.40 8.96 8.75
Turkey (Interba nk 1 we ek ave rage) 0.6 18.37 17.05 9.71 13.21 10.09 8.46 7.10 7.37 7.05 6.88 6.88
Poland (Interbank 2 week) 0.4 4.48 5.88 3.62 4.29 3.58 3.32 3.30 3.31 3.31 3.28 3.30
Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 0.2 2.86 3.49 1.52 1.95 1.59 1.35 1.21 1.25 1.25 1.13 1.00
Latin America and Caribbea n 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 12.05 12.45 10.16 12.66 10.37 8.87 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75
Me xico (CETES 91 da y closing) 1.0 7.36 7.88 5.52 7.42 5.43 4.63 4.62 4.64 4.61 4.60 4.61
Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 8.09 11.43 11.59 12.55 11.81 11.69 10.32 11.11 10.38 9.46 9.18
Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 7.94 9.68 6.28 9.13 6.54 5.08 4.38 4.54 4.40 4.21 3.98
Middle Ea st and North Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Saudi Arabia (IMF discount rate) 0.4 4.79 2.89 .. 2.52 1.67 0.28 .. 0.44 .. .. ..
I ran (IMF discount rate) 0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Egypt (IMF discount rate) 0.2 9.00 10.17 .. 10.67 9.50 8.67 .. .. .. .. ..
Algeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 4.00 4.00 .. 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. 4.00 4.00 .. ..
South Asia 1.6 .. .. ..
India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 7.04 7.90 8.90 9.00 9.00 9.00 8.59 9.00 8.76 8.00 8.00
Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 9.09 10.63 12.12 11.37 12.87 12.03 12.22 12.37 12.28 12.01 12.03
Bangla desh (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 .. 5.00 5.00 5.00 .. .. .. .. ..
Sri Lanka (Centra l bank repurchase) 0.0 10.43 10.50 9.03 10.37 9.55 8.43 7.78 8.00 7.83 7.50 7.50
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. ..
South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 9.61 11.61 8.39 10.82 8.50 7.24 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00
Nige ria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 9.13 9.85 .. 9.75 8.00 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Memo:
OECD 83.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing excl. China 14.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing oil exporters 2.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing non-oil e xporters 15.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)
a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figure s; except for the latest month, the figure reporte d for the latest month is the value on the date the data has bee n reported
(which is the last daily obse rvation one day before the note becomes ava
January 28, 2010
page 22 External Environment for Developing Countries
Weights Average 2009 2009 2009 2009 La test
1995 1999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q 2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec 20-Jan
World .. 91 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
High-income c ountries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Industrial c ountries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
United Sta te s .. 89 123 105 83 72 77 86 94 85 87 91 92
Japan .. 84 98 79 62 52 56 61 61 63 61 59 62
Euro Are a .. 99 457 403 222 131 188 215 265 247 278 282 277
United Kindgom .. 88 155 100 65 47 56 66 70 70 69 70 68
Other high incomea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Hong Kong (China ) .. .. 163 139 121 82 106 126 137 140 145 149 152
Singapore .. 80 18 10 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5
Ta iwan (China) .. 72 101 87 74 43 59 67 75 72 75 76 78
Developing countriesa,b .. 156 246 220 176 106 139 165 188 177 188 190 193
East Asia and Pacificc
.. 123 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
China .. 118 230 202 182 131 170 201 218 182 189 197 195
Indonesia .. 207 414 407 356 145 218 295 339 286 306 300 310
Thaila nd .. 188 260 245 201 104 134 166 181 161 168 159 164
Ma laysia .. 116 177 159 141 98 115 134 149 147 155 159 157
Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Russian Federa tion .. 525 554 490 259 164 247 272 343 302 347 349 343
Turkey .. 87 150 116 93 49 66 91 102 91 99 91 97
Poland .. 168 274 229 132 80 97 124 147 142 152 161 160
Czech Republic .. 354 768 847 577 381 475 576 580 681 675 673 648
Latin America and Caribbea n .. 203 352 361 291 182 238 284 345 315 350 360 367
Brazil .. 199 349 395 317 197 267 318 397 347 394 407 411
Me xico .. 193 350 302 229 151 188 226 257 252 264 271 285
Argentina .. 104 200 175 101 63 70 92 113 110 122 126 121
Colombia .. 352 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Middle Ea st and North Africa .. .. 261 231 164 103 134 158 181 168 179 179 181
Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
I ran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Egypt .. 213 497 556 354 188 255 300 317 306 318 299 293
Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
India .. 198 334 297 242 120 177 216 248 257 276 275 285
Pakistan .. 241 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Bangla desh .. .. 241 369 447 425 487 569 597 567 591 618 623
Sri Lanka .. 229 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Africa .. 216 290 240 218 139 175 210 230 213 217 215 220
Nige ria .. 409 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Memo:
OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing non-oil e xporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Table A.11 Stock Markets( indice s, year 2000=100)
a/ Average for De veloping countries and Other High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002
Note: Qua rterly and Monthly da ta is constructed from daily data by ta king the last observation for the month. Annual da ta is the average over 12
months.
b/ Aggrega te s defined by IFC/S&P
c/ East Asia Pacific including South Asia
Source: World - Morga n Sta nley Capital Internationa l Index; USA - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S&P EUROPE 350; UK -
Standard and Poor's 350; Hong Kong - Hang Seng Composite; Singapore - Singapore Stock Excahnge Composite Index;
All Othe rs a re IFC/S&P Indices
January 28, 2010
page 23 External Environment for Developing Countries
GDP Gross domestic Product Current Account Balance
2008 2009 2010 2009 2010
Cons. EIU O ECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD
World 1.6 -2.2 -2.4 -3.5 2.9 2.2 1.9 25 -284 .. 61 -342 ..
High-income c ountries 0.4 -3.4 -3.6 -3.4 2.0 1.4 1.9 -259 -284 .. -237 -342 ..
Industrial c ountries 0.4 -3.4 -3.6 -3.4 2.0 1.3 1.9 -341 -284 .. -322 -342 ..
United Sta te s 0.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.5 2.7 1.9 2.5 -424 -380 -434 -471 -432 -506
Japan -0.7 -5.7 -6.2 -5.3 1.4 1.3 1.8 142 131 126 183 116 146
Euro Are a 0.6 -4.0 -4.2 -4.0 0.9 0.3 0.9 -104 -52 -68 -72 -74 -11
United Kindgom 0.6 -4.5 -4.5 -4.7 1.2 0.6 1.2 -42 -32 -58 -40 -18 -57
Other high income 1.5 -2.9 -3.1 .. 4.0 3.1 .. 83 .. .. 85 .. ..
Hong Kong (China ) 2.4 -2.8 -3.2 .. 4.2 2.7 .. 24 .. .. 26 .. ..
Singapore 1.1 -2.3 -4.5 .. 5.5 3.8 .. 21 .. .. 23 .. ..
Ta iwan (China) 0.1 -3.9 -3.6 .. 4.2 3.5 .. 32 .. .. 31 .. ..
Developing countries 5.8 1.6 1.5 .. 5.8 4.9 .. 283.1 0.3 .. 298.1 0.2 ..
East Asia and Pacific 8.0 6.9 6.6 .. 8.6 7.7 .. 348.0 0.4 .. 358.1 0.3 ..
China 9.0 8.5 8.2 .. 9.6 8.6 .. 290.6 0.3 .. 305.4 0.2 ..
Indonesia 6.1 4.4 4.2 .. 5.4 4.5 .. 6.3 .. .. 5.7 .. ..
Thaila nd 2.6 -3.4 -4.3 .. 4.0 3.3 .. 14.2 .. .. 9.3 .. ..
Ma laysia 4.6 -2.6 -2.4 .. 4.4 3.9 .. 31.7 .. .. 32.8 .. ....
Europe and Central Asia 3.7 -5.4 -5.4 .. 2.5 2.0 .. -7.0 .. .. -10.0 .. ..
Russian Federa tion 5.6 -7.7 -7.0 .. 3.5 2.5 .. 46.6 .. .. 52.9 .. ..
Turkey 0.9 -5.9 -5.7 -6.5 3.3 3.0 3.7 -12.3 .. -12.0 -19.8 .. -19.9
Poland 5.0 1.3 1.0 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 -5.1 .. -7.3 -9.5 .. -11.5
Czech Republic 2.3 -4.2 -4.3 -4.4 1.3 0.9 2.0 -3.6 .. -1.8 -3.8 .. 0.6.. ..
Latin America and Caribbea n 4.3 -2.4 -2.3 .. 3.5 2.6 .. -33.5 .. .. -46.1 .. ..
Brazil 5.1 0.2 0.0 .. 4.9 3.8 .. -17.5 .. .. -35.6 .. ..
Me xico 1.3 -7.0 -7.1 -8.0 2.9 3.0 2.7 -12.2 .. .. -15.3 .. 9.4
Argentina 6.8 -2.7 -0.5 .. 2.8 1.4 .. 8.3 .. .. 7.5 .. ..
Colombia 2.4 0.1 0.2 .. 3.0 2.4 .. -5.8 .. .. -5.5 .. ..
Middle Ea st and North Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Saudi Arabia 4.4 -0.9 -1.0 .. 4.2 3.3 .. 23.7 .. .. 46.4 .. ..
I ran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Egypt 7.2 4.6 4.7 .. 4.8 4.5 .. -4.4 .. .. -4.0 .. ..
Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Asia 6.3 5.7 5.3 .. 7.1 5.8 .. -20.8 .. .. -29.2 .. ..
India 6.7 6.1 5.5 .. 7.6 6.3 .. -14.9 .. .. -21.4 .. ..
Pakistan 3.6 2.5 3.7 .. 3.6 2.4 .. -5.9 .. .. -7.8 .. ..
Bangla desh 6.0 5.7 5.9 .. 6.0 5.6 .. .. 0.1 .. .. -0.1 ..
Sri Lanka 5.9 .. 3.0 .. .. 6.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Africa 3.1 -1.8 -2.2 .. 2.8 3.1 .. -13.7 .. .. -16.0 .. ..
Nige ria 5.3 4.1 4.1 .. 5.2 5.2 .. -9.2 .. .. -1.0 .. ..
Memo:
OECD 0.4 -3.5 -3.7 -3.5 2.0 1.3 1.9 -381 -284 .. -378 -342 ..
Developing excl. China 4.5 -1.2 -1.2 .. 4.1 3.3 .. -7.5 .. .. -7.3 .. ..
Developing oil exporters 5.1 1.2 0.8 .. 3.9 2.5 .. 21.9 .. .. 61.6 .. ..
Developing non-oil e xporters 5.8 1.7 1.6 .. 6.0 5.1 .. 261.2 0.3 .. 236.5 0.2 ..
Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Table A.12 GDP and current account forecasts(annual percent change; billions of US dollars)
Sources: Consensus Economics Ltd.; The Economist Intelligence Unit and OECD.
Regional Aggregates:
Latin America and Carribean: ARG,BOL,BRA,CHL,COL,CRI,DOM,ECU,MEX,PAN,PER,PRY,URY,VEN
Eur ope and Central Asia: BGR,CZE,EST,HRV,HUN,KAZ,POL,ROM,RUS,SVK,TUR,UKR
East Asia and Pacific: CHN, IDN,MYS,PHL,THA
Middle-East and North Africa: DZA,EGY,IRN,IRQ,JOR,LBN,MAR,OMN,SAU,SYR,TUN,YEM
South Asia: BGD,IND,PAK
Sub-Saharan Africa: AGO,BWA,CIV,CMR,GAB,GHA,KEN,MUS,MWI,NAM,NGA,SDN,TZA,UGA,ZAF,ZMB,ZWE
Other Aggregates:
OECD:AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,CZE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,HUN,IRL,ISL,ITA,JPN,KOR,MEX,NLD,NOR,POL,PRT,SVK,SWE,TUR,USA
Industrial Countries: AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,ITA,JPN,KOR,NLD,NOR,PRT,SWE,USA
Other High Income: HKG,ISR,SGP,SVN
Developing Oil Exporter s: IDN,NGA,SAU,VEN