World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2010, Volume 1

8/9/2019 World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2010, Volume 1

1/96

]FREJ BNLI @NTZ NTHN NLJ [NDHCHD @DFLFGHD P[JNZ@2;>;, SFEPG@ H

`g`rmhlmstrflm`rcrfg to`

drhshs


2/96


3/96

@g`rmhlm Ttrflm`r crfg to` Drhshs

]FREJ BNLI @NTZ NTHN NLJ [NDHCHD @DFLFGHD P[JNZ@2;>;, SFEPG@ H

]nsohlmtfl, J.D.


4/96

2;>; Zo` Hlt`rlnthflne Bnli cfr R`dflstrudthfl nlj J`vèfpg`lt / Zo` ]frej Bnli

>?>? O Ttr``t L]

]nsohlmtfl JD 2;:44

Z e`pofl`1 2;2-:=4->;;;

Hlt`rl`t1 www.wfrejbnli.frm

@-gnhe1 c``jbndiKwfrejbnli.frm

Nee rhmots r`s`rv`j

> 2 4 : >4 >2 >> >;

Zohs vfeug` hs n prfjudt fc to` stncc fc to` Hlt`rlnthflne Bnli cfr R`dflstrudthfl nlj J`vèfpg`lt / Zo` ]frej Bnli. Zo`

chljhlms, hlt`rpr`tnthfls, nlj dfldeushfls `xpr`ss`j hl tohs vfeug` jf lft l`d`ssnrhey r`ce`dt to` vh`ws fc to` @x`duthv` Jhr`dtfrs

fc Zo` ]frej Bnli fr to` mfv`rlg`lts to`y r`pr`s`lt.

Zo` ]frej Bnli jf`s lft munrnlt`` to` nddurndy fc to` jntn hldeuj`j hl tohs wfri. Zo` bfuljnrh`s, dfefrs, j`lfghlnthfls, nlj

fto`r hlcfrgnthfl sofwl fl nly gnp hl tohs wfri jf lft hgpey nly aujm`g`lt fl to` pnrt fc Zo` ]frej Bnli dfld`rlhlm to` e`mne

stntus fc nly t`rrhtfry fr to` `ljfrs`g`lt fr ndd`ptnld` fc sudo bfuljnrh`s.

Rhmots nlj [ rghsshfls

Zo` gnt`rhne hl tohs pubehdnthfl hs dfpyrhmot`j. Dfpyhlm nlj/fr trnlsghtthlm pfrthfls fr nee fc tohs wfri whtofut p`rghsshfl gny

b` n vhfenthfl fc nppehdnbe` enw. Zo` Hlt`rlnthflne Bnli cfr R`dflstrudthfl nlj J`vèfpg`lt / Zo` ]frej Bnli `ldfurnm`s

jhss`ghlnthfl fc hts wfri nlj whee lfrgneey mrnlt p`rghsshfl tf r`prfjud` pfrthfls fc to` wfri prfgptey.

Cfr p`rghsshfl tf poftfdfpy fr r`prhlt nly pnrt fc tohs wfri, pe`ns` s`lj n r`qu`st whto dfgpe`t` hlcfrgnthfl tf to` Dfpyrhmot

De`nrnld` D`lt`r Hld., 222 Rfs`wffj Jrhv`, Jnlv`rs, GN ;>824, PTN9 tè`pofl`1 8=?-=0;-?:;;9 cnx1 8=?-=0;-::=;9 Hlt`rl`t1

www.dfpyrhmot.dfg.

Nee fto`r qu`rh`s fl rhmots nlj ehd`ls`s, hldeujhlm subshjhnry rhmots, sofuej b` njjr`ss`j tf to` Fcchd` fc to` [ubehso`r, Zo` ]frejBnli, >?>? O Ttr``t L], ]nsohlmtfl, JD 2;:44, PTN9 cnx1 2;2-022-2:229 `-gnhe1 pubrhmotsKwfrejbnli.frm.

HTBL1 8=?-;-?2>4-?2=0-2

`HTBL1 8=?-;-?2>4-?:;0-4

JFH1 >;.>083/8=?-;-?2>4-?2=0-2

HTTL ons b``l r`qu`st`j.

Dfv`r poftf dr`jhts1 sdueph`s/hstfdipoftf.dfg


5/96

[R@CND@ NLJ NDILF]E@JMG@LZT

Zo` ]frej Bnli @nst Nshn nlj [ndhd @dflfghd Ppjnt` 2;>;, Sfeug` H, wns pr`pnr`j by n t`ng e`j by Hvnhef Hzvfrsih (E`nj

@dflfghst @nst Nshn nlj [ndhd) whto muhjnld` crfg Shirng Lòru (@nst Nshn nlj [ndhd R`mhflne Doh`c @dflfghst). Zo` t`ng

hldeuj`j @int`rhln Sfstrfilutfvn, Nltflhf Fee`rf, Ihrhjn Bonfphdohtr, Gfoj Onsnl Nognj, nlj Gnlfonr Tonrgn. Hlput wnsprfvhj`j by dfultry `dflfghsts nlj nlneysts ndrfss to` ]frej Bnli fcd`s hl @nst Nshn nlj to` [ndhd, nlj crfg Nognj Nosnl,

@ghehn Bnttnmehlh, _u Mnf, Rfb`rt Anuld`y, Nbons Aon, @ggnluè X. Ahg`l`z, Fehv`r Gnoue, [h`rs G`rrhdi, Gnrthl R`hdooub`r,

Cnthgn Tono, Shvì Turh, Ehljn vnl Mèj`r, @junrjf Sè`z Bustheef, _hnf X`, nlj _hnfqhlm Xu. @rhd E` Bfrml`, Nljr`w Burls,

Cr`j`rhdf Mhe Tnlj`r, Nrjf Onlssfl, Efuhs Iuhas, Ghdi Rhfrjnl, [ohehp Tdoèeì`ls, nlj Onls Zhgg`r prfvhj`j dfgg`lts.

@ehsnb`to G`ne`y prfvhj`j dfggulhdnthfl suppfrt nlj Eyll Mrfss prfvhj`j `xp`rt s`dr`tnrhne nsshstnld`. Hl to` Fcd` fc to`

[ubehso`r, [ntrhdhn Intnyngn, ndquhshthfls `jhtfr, nlj Jhln Zfwbhl, prfjudthfl `jhtfr, nsshst`j hl prfjudhlm to` è`dtrflhd nlj

prhlt v`rshfls fc to` r`pfrt. Bujy ]hrnsgf typ`s`t to` r`pfrt.

@g`rmhlm @nst Nshn ns us`j hl tohs r`pfrt hldeuj`s J`vèfphlm @nst Nshn (Dohln, Hljfl`shn, Gnenyshn, [ohehpphl`s, Zonhenlj,

Dngbfjhn, Enf [`fpe`s J`gfdrnthd R`pubehd Y[JRW, Gflmfehn, [npun L`w Muhl`n, Zhgfr-E`st`, Sh`tlng, nlj to` hsenlj

`dflfgh`s hl to` [ndhd) nlj to` L`wey Hljustrhnehz`j @dflfgh`s (LH@s). Zo` LH@s hldeuj` Oflm Iflm, Dohln9 to` R`pubehd fc

Ifr`n9 Thlmnpfr`9 nlj Znhwnl, Dohln. Hl tohs r`pfrt, ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s r`c`r tf Dohln, Hljfl`shn, Gnenyshn, [ohehpphl`s,nlj Zonhenlj. Hl tohs r`pfrt, efw-hldfg` dfultrh`s hldeuj` Dngbfjhn, Enf [JR, nlj Sh`tlng. Zo` NT@NL g`gb`r dfultrh`s nr`

Brul`h Jnrussneng, Dngbfjhn, Hljfl`shn, Enf [JR, Gnenyshn, Gynlgnr, [ohehpphl`s, Thlmnpfr`, Zonhenlj, nlj Sh`tlng.

www.wfrejbnli.frm/`npupjnt`

[R@CND@ NLJ NDILF]E@JMG@LZT


6/96


7/96

DFLZ@LZT

[r`cnd` nlj Ndilfwe`jmg`lts hhh

Nbbr`vhnthfls 2

Tuggnry 4H. Zo` R`dfv`ry :

R`ne MJ[ hs nbfv` pr`-drhshs e`vès :

Hljustrhne prfjudthfl hs r`dfv`rhlm sonrpey 3

Dnpndhty uthehznthfl hl hljustry nlj ul`gpefyg`lt nr` nesf r`ndohlm pr`-drhshs e`vès 3

@xpfrts nr` y`t tf r`dfv`r cueey hl to` r`mhfls ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s =

Dnphtne hlflfws r`dfv`r`j hl Dohln but lft hl to` fto`r ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s 8

Zo` drhshs sefw`j to` pnd` fc pfv`rty r`judthfl hl j`vèfphlm @nst Nshn >2

HH. Zo` Tofrt-Z`rg Donee`lm`1 ]htojrnwhlm to` Tthgueus whtofut Jhsrupthlm to` R`dfv`ry >:

[r`gntur` whtojrnwne fc sdne sthgueus r`gnhls n bhm rhsi >:

Gfst d`ltrne bnlis onv` b`mul tf sè`dthvèy thmot`l gfl`tnry pfehdy >0

@xdonlm` gnri`t hlt`rv`lthfl nlj durr`ldy nppr`dhnthfl onv` r`turl`j >3

HHH. Zo` Hgp`rnthv` cfr R`l`w`j Ttrudturne R`cfrgs >?

Hts n l`w wfrej >8

Cfr Dohln, to` donee`lm` whee b` tf r`bnenld` to` `dflfgy 2;

Cfr @nst Nshns ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s, gfvhlm up to` vneu` donhl whee r`gnhl n prhfrhty 2>

Efw-hldfg` dfultrh`s l``j tf br`ni hltf gnlucndturhlm 23

Dfggfjhty `xpfrt`rs l``j sfulj sdne pfehdh`s cfr sustnhlnbe` mrfwto 2=

Zo` [ndhd hsenljs l``j tf pursu` j``p`r hlt`mrnthfl whto to` l`nr`st enrm` gnri`t 28

N dfggfl r`mhflne nm`ljn cfr to` g`jhug t`rg 4>

Dfultry [nm`s & I`y Hljhdntfrs 48

Dngbfjhn 48

Dohln :2

Chah :0

Hljfl`shn :?

Enf [JR 0>

Gnenyshn 04

Gflmfehn 03

[npun L`w Muhl`n 0?

[ohehpphl`s 3>

Tgnee [ndhd Hsenljs 3:

Tfefgfl Hsenljs 3=

Zonhenlj 38Zhgfr E`st` =2

Sh`tlng =:

Npp`ljhx Znbe`s ==

DFLZ@LZT

@G@RMHLM TZRFLM@R CRFG ZO@ DRHTHT


8/96

NJB Nshnl J`vèfpg`lt Bnli

NT@NL Nssfdhnthfl fc Tfuto`nst Nshnl Lnthfls (Brul`h

Jnrusneng, Dngbfjhn, Hljfl`shn, Enf [JR,Gnenyshn, Gynlgnr, [ohehpphl`s, Thlmnpfr`,

Zonhenlj nlj Sh`tlng)

BHT Bnli cfr Hlt`rlnthflne T`tte`g`lts

DL[D Dohln Lnthflne [`trfeùg Dfgpnly

@N[ @nst Nshn nlj [ndhd R`mhfl

@DN @urfp` nlj D`ltrne Nshn R`mhfl

@jTtnts @judnthfl Ttnthsthds

@HT @sthgnt`j Tustnhlnbe` Hldfg`

@P @urfp`nl Plhfl

CJH Cfr`hml Jhr`dt Hlv`stg`lt

M-4 Plht`j Ttnt`s, to` @urfzfl` nlj Anpnl

MJ[ Mrfss jfg`sthd prfjudt

M@[ Mefbne @dflfghd [rfsp`dts

O[ Chet`r Ofjrhdi [r`sdftt Chet`r

END Enthl Ng`rhdn nlj to` Dnrhbb`nl R`mhfl

GHDs Ghjje` Hldfg` Dfultrh`s

LNCZN Lfrto Ng`rhdn Cr`` Zrnj` Nmr``g`lt

LH@s L`wey Hljustrhnehz`j @dflfgh`s (Oflm Iflm,

Dohln9 Ifr`n9 Thlmnpfr`9 nlj Znhwnl, Dohln)

F@DJ Frmnlhznthfl cfr @dflfghd Df-fp`rnthfl nlj

J`vèfpg`lt

TM[ Ttnbhehty nlj Mrfwto [ndt

PL DFGZRNJ@

Plht`j Lnthfls Ttnthsthds Jhvhshfl Dfggfjhty

Zrnj` Ttnthsthds

P.T. Plht`j Ttnt`s

Dfultrh`s

DOL Dohln

OIM Oflm Iflm, DohlnHJL Hljfl`shn

IOG Dngbfjhn

IFR Ifr`n

ENF Enf [`fpe`s J`gfdrnthd R`pubehd ([JR)

GLM Gflmfehn

GXT Gnenyshn

[OE [ohehpphl`s

[LM [npun L`w Muhl`n

TM[ Thlmnpfr`

ZON Zonhenlj

Z]L Znhwnl, Dohln

SLG Sh`tlng

NBBR@SHNZHFLT

2

]FREJ BNLI @NTZ NTHN NLJ [NDHCHD @DFLFGHD P[JNZ@2;>;, SFE. H

NBBR@SHNZHFLT


9/96

TPGGNRX

@nst Nshn ons r`dfv`r`j crfg to` `dflfghd nlj chlnldhne drhshs. Enrmèy tonlis tf Dohln, to` r`mhfls futput, xpfrts nlj gpefyg`lt

onv` gfstey r`turl`j tf to` e`vès b`cfr` to` drhshs. E`njhlm to` mefbne `dflfgy, r`ne MJ[ mrfwto hl j`vèfphlm @nst Nshn hs

pfhs`j tf rhs` tf ?.= p`rd`lt hl 2;>; nct`r sefwhlm crfg ?.0 p`rd`lt hl 2;;? tf =.; p`rd`lt hl 2;;8.

]hto to` lfrgnehznthfl fc ndthvhty nlj c hrghlm fc prhd`s, to` gfl`tnr y nutofrhth`s ndrfss to` r`mhfl onv` b`mul r`gfvhlm `xd`pthflne pfehdy

suppfrt. G`nsur`s onv` hldeuj`j neefwhlm njjhthflne ehquhjhty sdo`g`s tf enps`, hldr`nshlm r`quhr`j r`s`rv`s nlj, hl Sh`tlng nlj

Gnenyshn, rnhshlm pfehdy hlt`r`st rnt`s. But ht gny b` pr`gntur` nt tohs stnm` tf whtojrnw sdne sthgueus hl gnly dfultrh`s, ns

prhvnt` hlv`stg`lt hs y`t tf b`dfg` to` `lmhl` fc mrfwto nlj to` pffr nr` sthee succ`rhlm. Lfl`toè`ss, sdne spnd` hs ehght`j nlj

to` sthgueus nefl` dnllft sustnhl jfg`sthd j`gnlj cfr nl `xt`lj`j p`rhfj fc thg`. Zrnlshthflhlm tf prhvnt` s`dtfr-bns`j mrfwto

hl to` sofrt t`rg hs d`ltrne.

Zohs hs ndoh`vnbe`9 @nst Nshn ons `g`rm`j strflm`r crfg to` mefbne drhshs nlj rnphj mrfwto whee b` pfsshbe` hl to` dfghlm y`nrs `v`l hl

n w`ni`l`j mefbne `dflfgy. But n r`turl tf pr`-drhshs prhvnt` s`dtfr-jrhv`l mrfwto rnt`s whee r`quhr` tont dfultrh`s r`turl tf to`

g`jhug-t`rg r`cfrg nm`ljn nlj hgpe`g`lt ht whto vhmfr.

Mhv`l to` r`mhfls jhv`rshty, prhfrhth`s whee b` jhcc`r`lt hl jhcc`r`lt dfultrh`s. Cfr Dohln, r`bnenldhlm to` `dflfgy ns `gponshz`j hl

to` >>to v`-y`nr penl whee b` i`y. R`bnenldhlm ons s`v`rne jhg`lshfls, hldeujhlm r`strudturhlm to` dfgpfshthfl fc `dflfghd

mrfwto by `lnbehlm n enrm`r rfe` cfr to` s`rvhd` s`dtfr nlj prhvnt` dflsugpthfl, nwny crfg hlv`stg`lt-o`nvy `xpfrt-e`j mrfwto,

nlj ldfurnmhlm gfr` lvhrflg`ltne sustnhlnbhehty. Cfr ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s, to` prhfrhty hs gfr` hlv`stg`lt hl poyshdne nlj

ougnl dnphtne tf gfv` up to` vneu` donhl hl prfjudthfl nlj `xpfrts. Efw-hldfg` dfultrh`s l``j tf br`ni hltf gnlucndturhlm

nlj b`dfg` pnrt fc mefbne nlj r`mhflne prfjudthfl l`twfris. Dfggfjhty `xpfrt`rs whee l``j tf str`lmto`l sdne rue`s nlj

crng`wfris tf trnlsent` vfenthe` `xt`rlne r`v`lu`s hltf eflm-t`rg sustnhlnbe` mrfwto. Nlj, enst but lft e`nst, to` [ndhd hsenljs

whee l``j j``p`r hlt`mrnthfl whto to`hr l`nr`st enrm` gnri`t.

Zohs r`pfr t nesf hj`lthch`s twf dfggfl r`mhflne nm`ljn ht`gs cfr to` g`jhug t`rg. Chrst, to` prfd`ss fc r`mhflne hlt`mrnthfl, jrhv`l

by NT@NLs dfgghtg`lts tf dr`nthlm n shlme` `dflfghd nr`n, whee l``j tf dflthlu`. J``p`r r`mhflne `dflfghd hlt`mrnthfl hs

lfw `v`l gfr` hgpfrtnlt, mhv`l prfsp`dts cfr sefw`r mrfwto hl njvnld`j `dflfgh`s. Bòhlj-to`-bfrj`r trnj` bnrrh`rs gust

b` efw`r`j, `v`l hl to` cnd` fc hldhph`lt prft`dthflhst pr`ssur`s nrfulj to` wfrej, hldeujhlm hl to` r`mhfl. J``p`r hlt`mrnthfl

whee `ldfurnm` nmmefg`rnthfl `dflfgh`s nlj hltrn-hljustry trnj`, suppfrt sustnhlnbe` urbnlhznthfl, efw`r dfsts, nlj hldr`ns`

hlt`rlnthflne dfgp`ththv`l`ss.

T`dflj, njjr`sshlm dehgnt` donlm` hs ohmo prhfrhty hl to` r`mhfl. Ghthmnthfl g`nsur`s gust b` str`lmto`l`j tf hgprfv` enlj nlj

wnt`r us`, bfest`r `l`rmy `cdh`ldy nlj dfls`rvnthfl, nlj cfst`r n gudo enrm`r rfe` cfr r`l`wnbe` sfurd`s fc `l`rmy. Hldr`ns`j

`l`rmy `cdh`ldy hs lft fley mffj cfr `l`rmy s`durhty but hs nesf `lvhrflg`ltneey gfr` sustnhlnbe` nlj whee oèp gni` rnphjey

mrfwhlm dhth`s gfr` ehvnbe`. Gfr`fv`r, whto hlv`stg`lt rnt`s hl to` r`mhfl ohmo`r tonl hl j`vèfp`j dfultrh`s, to`r` hs sdfp`cfr @nst Nshn tf gfv` rnphjey tf to` mr``l t`dolfefmy crflth`r. Tudo n gfv` whee mhv` to` r`mhfl n dfgp`ththv` njvnltnm` hl n

s`dtfr pfhs`j cfr rnphj mefbne mrfwto. Nt to` sng` thg`, to` njnptnthfl nm`ljn whee r`quhr` lonldhlm to` r`mhfls dffp`rnthfl nlj

jhsnst`r rhsi gnlnm`g`lt crng`wfris. Hlsthtuthflne nlj r`muentfry crng`wfris cfr hgprfvhlm to` r`sheh`ldy fc dflfghd ndthvhty,

r`judhlm jrfumot nlj flffj rhsi, nlj gnlnmhlm dfnstne nr`ns nlj sgnee hsenljs, nr` drhthdneey l``j`j.

TPGGNRX



10/96

H. ZO@ R@DFS@RX

R@NE MJ[ HT NBFS@ [R@-DRHTHT E@S@ET

@nst Nshn ons gfstey r`dfv`r`j crfg to` drhshs. Hl to` spnd` fc n y`nr, to` r`mhfl sohct`j crfg n dfeenps` hl xpfrts nlj hlv`stg`lt,tf e`njhlm to` mefbne r`bfulj, nlj r`turlhlm tf to` pr`-drhshs e`vès fc r`ne MJ[ (Chmur` > nlj Chmur` 2). Zo` r`mhfl ons `g`rm`j

strflm`r hl n w`ni`l`j wfrej `dflfgy, hl gudo b`tt`r sonp` tonl nct`r to` >88=-8? Nshnllnldhne drhshs (Znbe` >). Zohs r`gnrinbe`

r`dfv`ry ons b``l ju` tf n enrm` nlj thgèy pfehdy sthgueus, r`l`w`j hlv`ltfry r`stfdihlm, nlj to` r`turl fc bufynlt j`gnlj

nbrfnj nlj dflsug`r s`lthg`lt. @v`l whto to` enrm` sthgueus, sdne j`dhts nlj j`bt nr` dfltnhl`j nlj cfr gfst dfultrh`s pfs`

lf jnlm`rs tf j`bt sustnhlnbhehty. Tfehj dflfghd culjng`ltnes, hldeujhlm ohmo cfr`hml xdonlm` r`s`rv`s, wèe-dnphtnehz`j bnlis

nlj gfj`st e`vès fc ofusòfej, dfrpfrnt` nlj mfv`rlg`lt j`bt onv` nesf b``l i`y cndtfrs cfr to` r`dfv`ry. Dnphtne flfws onv`

rfnr`j bndi hl Dohln nlj to` LH@s, `v`l ns thmot mefbne lnldhne dfljhthfls nlj ngpe` spnr` dnpndhty prfgpt wfrrh`s tont to`

l`w lfrgne whee b` donrndt`rhz`j by sefw`r mefbne mrfwto. But enrm` dnphtne hlflfws onv` nesf rnhs`j nenrgs nbfut l`w nss`t

bubbe`s hl sfg` dfultrh`s. Nutofrhth`s hl to` r`mhfl nr` dflcrflthlm to`s` rhsis nt to` sng` thg` to`y nr` r`turlhlm tf n r`cfrg

nm`ljn l``j`j tf s`dur` strflm nlj sustnhl`j mrfwto.

Zo` r`dfv`ry ons b``l swhct. R`ne MJ[ mrfwto hl to` cfurto qunrt`r surm`j tf 8.: p`rd`lt y`nr-fl-y`nr hl j`vèfphlm @nst Nshn

crfg 3 p`rd`lt hl to` rst lhl` gfltos fc to` y`nr. Cfr 2;;8 ns n wofe`, mrfwto sefw`j tf = p`rd`lt crfg ?.0 p`rd`lt hl 2;;?. N

strflm hldr`ns` hl prhvnt` dflsugpthfl nlj `xpfrts, nlj n sohct tf hlv`ltfry ndduguenthfl hl negfst nee dfultrh`s w`r` to` i`y

jrhv`rs fc mrfwto hl to` cfurto qunrt`r (Chmur` :). Ohmo cr`qu`ldy hljhdntfrs summ`st tont to`s` cndtfrs onv` dflthlu`j tf suppfrt n

rnphj xpnlshfl hl to`

rst onec fc 2;>;. Zo` fp`l dflfgh`s fc Zonhenlj nlj Gnenyshn, whto sfg` fc to` ohmo`st rnthfs fc xpfrtstf MJ[ nlj thmotey hlt`mrnt`j hltf mefbne prfjudthfl l`twfris, `xp`rh`ld`j dfltrndthfls cfr 2;;8 ns n wofe` j`spht` to` r`turl tf

`xpnlshfl hl to` entt`r pnrt fc to` y`nr. Futput nesf cèe hl Dngbfjhn, Gflmfehn nlj sfg` fc to` [ndhd hsenljs.

Dohln strflmey hlflu`ld`j j`vèfpg`lts hl to` r`mhfl. Hts enrm` gfl`tnry nlj sdne sthgueus ehght`j to` sefwjfwl hl mrfwto tf

?.= p`rd`lt hl 2;;8 crfg 8.3 p`rd`lt hl 2;;?, whto mfv`rlg`lt-e`j hlv`stg`lt surmhlm by l`nrey 3 p`rd`lt fc MJ[. Chlne j`gnlj

`xpnlj`j gnri`jey, mhvhlm n thgèy bffst tf hgpfrts crfg to` r`mhfl hl to` rst onec fc to` y`nr. Ttrflm`r j`gnlj crfg to`

njvnld`j `dflfgh`s b`mnl prfvhjhlm n gfr` pfw`rcue hgp`tus hl to` s`dflj onec fc 2;;8.

Chmur` >. R`ne MJ[ ons r`bfulj`j cnst

([`rd`lt donlm` y`nr-fl-y`nr)

Tfurd`s1 D@HD nlj ]frej Bnli stncc dneduenthfls.

Chmur` 2. nlj e`vès nr` nbfv` pr`-drhshs p`nis hl gfst fc

j`vèfphlm @nst Nshn

(cfurto qunrt`r fc 2;;8 hl p`rd`lt fc to` pr`-drhshs p`ni, s`nsflneey njaust`j t`rgs)

Tfurd`s1D@HD nlj ]frej Bnli stncc dneduenthfls.*/ [`ni pr`-drhshs qunrt`r lft`j hl brndi`ts.

:


H. ZO@ R@DFS@RX


11/96

Zni` Dohln fut fc r`mhflne nv`rnm`s, ofw`v`r, nlj mrfwto hl to`

r`st fc j`vèfphlm @nst Nshn wns n g`r` >.4 p`rd`lt hl 2;;8, efw`r

tonl hl Tfuto Nshn nlj sehmotey strflm`r tonl hl Tub-Tnonrnl Ncrhdn

(Znbe` 2). Dydehdne j`vèfpg`lts jurhlm to` drhshs lftwhtostnljhlm,

mrfwto rnt`s hl @nst Nshn `xdeujhlm Dohln onv` b``l efw`r tonl

hl Tub-Tnonrnl Ncrhdn cfr gfr` tonl n j`dnj` lfw, ulj`rphllhlm

to` ngbhthfl fc to` nutofrhth`s hl to` r`mhfl tf sustnhl to` r`cfrgs

l``j`j tf suppfrt rfbust nlj hldeushv` `dflfghd `xpnlshfl.

Plj`reyhlm to` jhv`rshty fc to` r`mhfl, gfr`fv`r, to`r` nr` dfultrh`s

whto bfto rfbust mrfwto nlj dfultrh`s whto gfj`rnt` dfltrndthfls hl

2;;8 (Chmur` 4). By dfltrnst, nee dfultrh`s hl Tfuto Nshn xp`rh`ld`j

pfshthv` mrfwto. Nt to` fto`r `xtr`g`, nee fc Enthl Ng`rhdns

dfultrh`s dfltrndt`j hl 2;;8, nlj fley [fenlj ngflm to` 2= @Pg`gb`rs mr`w.

Plbìlfwlst tf gnly, prhvnt` dflsugpthfl gnj` n shmlhdnlt dfltrhbuthfl tf Dohlns dflfghd mrfwto hl 2;;8, fr 2.? p`rd`ltnm`

pfhlts tf b` `xndt. Hl cndt, cfr wèe fv`r n j`dnj`, to` dfltrhbuthfl fc prhvnt` dflsugpthfl tf mrfwto ons b``l to` ohmo`st hl to`

r`mhfl nlj cnr ohmo`r tonl hl to` P.T. (Chmur` 0). Tudo n ohmo dfltrhbuthfl ons b``l gnj` pfsshbe` by to` prfjudthv` dnpndhty

r`suethlm crfg gnsshv` x`j hlv`stg`lt nlj rnphj `xpfrt mrfwto. Mfv`rlg`lt penls tf r`bnenld` to` `dflfgy cfr`s`` n enrm`r

rfe` cfr to` s`rvhd` s`dtfr, nlj neflm whto ht n bffst tf rurne hldfg`s. Ns n r`suet fc sudo r`bnenldhlm, prhvnt` dflsugpthfl whee

ehièy dfltrhbut` gfr` tf mrfwto hl to` cutur`.

Znbe` >.Zo` r`mhfl ons `g`rm`j hl b`tt`r sonp` crfg tohs mefbne drhshs tonl crfg to` >88=-8? Nshnl lnldhne drhshs

Nct`r to` >88=-8? Nshnl chlnldhne drhshs Nct`r tohs mefbne drhshs

Zo` mefbne `df lfgy mr`w 4.3 p`rd`lt hl >888nlj :.? p rd`lt hl 2;;; dfltrndt`j 2.2 p`rd`lt hl 2;;8,prfa`dt`j tf`xpnlj 2.=-4.2 p`rd`lt hl 2;>;->>

R`ne MJ[ hl j`vèfphlm @nst

Nshn `xdeujhlm Dohln dfltrndt`j ? p`rd`lt hl >88? dfltrndt`j ;.3 p`rd`lt hl to` chrst onec fc 2;;8

b`cfr` r`dfv`rhlm tf mrfwto fc >.4 p`rd`lt hl 2;;8 nsn wofe`

Zo` r`ne M J[ fc @nst Nshns

GHDs */

tffi negfst cfur y`nrs tf r`dfv`rtf pr`-drhshse`vès (tohrj qunrt`r fc 2;;>)

tffi fl` y`nrtf r`turl tf pr`-drhshs e`vès (ulthe`lj-2;;8)

Dohlns r`ne MJ[ sefw`j tf =.? p`rd`lt hl >88?crfg >> p`rd`lt flnv`rnm` jurhlm >88;-83

sefw`j tf ?.= p`rd`lt hl 2;;8crfg >; p`rd`lt flnv`rnm` jurhlm 2;;;-2;;=

@xpfrts dfltrndt`j 0.4 p`rd`lt hl >88?,rfs` 2> p`rd`lthl 2;;;

dfltrndt`j 2: p`rd`lt y-y hl chrst onec fc 2;;8,rfs` :.? p`rd`lt y-y hl to` enst qunrt`r fc 2;;8

Durr`lt nddfults sohct`j crfg j`chdht tf surpeus,whto to` enrm`stswhlm hl Zonhenlj (? p`rd`lt fc MJ[ j`chdht hl >88= tfn 3 p`rd`lt surpeus hl>88?)

surpeus`s lnrrfw`jcrfg ?.= p`rd`lt fl nv`rnm`hl 2;;= tf 3.: p`rd`lt hl 2;;8

R`ne `xdonlm` rnt`s w`r` 2; p`rd`ltj`pr`dhnt`j hl ent` 2;;; rènthv`

tf `nrey >88=

j`pr`dhnt`j 4.0 p`rd`lty-y hl ent` 2;;?, but

r`dfv`r`j tf pr`-drhshs e`vès by to` `lj fc 2;;8Chsdne j`dhts whj`l`j sonrpey tf 3.4 p`rd`lt fc MJ[hl >888

crfg l`nr bnenld` hl `nrey >88= rfs` gfj`rntèy by 2.= p`rd`lt fc MJ[flnv`rnm` by 2;;8 crfg >.> p`rd`lt MJ[ hl 2;;=

[ubehd j`bt .. negfst jfube`j tf 48 p`rd`lt fc MJ[ by `lj-2;;;crfg lj->88=

hldr`ns`j gfj`steytf :> p`rd`lt fc MJ[ by to``lj fc 2;;8 crfg 4? p`rd`lt nt `lj-2;;=

Lfl-p`rcfrghlm efnls p`ni`j nt 2? p`rd`lt fc tftne efnlshl >88?, whto:0 p`rd`lt hl Zonhenlj nlj :8 p`rd`lt hl Hljfl`shn

r`gnhl`j ehtte` donlm`j nt nbfut 4 p`rd`ltjurhlm2;;8

Tfurd`s1M@[, lnthflne nutofrhth`s, HGC ]@F 2;;8, nlj Bnli stncc sthgnt`s nlj prfa`dthfls.*/ Zo` @nst Nshns GHDs o`r` r`c`r tf Hljfl`shn, Gnenyshn, [ohehpphl`s, nlj Zonhenlj.

Znbe` 2.Zonlis tf Dohln, j`vèfphlm @nst Nshn r`gnhl`j to`

cnst`st mrfwhlm j`vèfphlm r`mhfl

([`rd`lt donlm` y-y)

2;;= 2;;? 2;;8

J`vèfphlm @nst Nshn >>.: ?.0 =.;

J`v. @nst Nshn xde. Dohln 3.2 :.= >.4

@urfp` nlj D`ltrne Nshn =.> :.4 -3.2

Enthl Ng`rhdn nlj Dnrhbb`nl 0.0 4.8 -2.3

Ghjje` @nst nlj Lfrto Ncrhdn 0.4 0.? 2.8

Tfuto Nshn ?.0 0.= 0.=

Tub-Tnonrnl Ncrhdn 3.0 :.8 >.>

Ohmo hldfg` dfultrh`s 2.3 ;.: -4.4

Tfurd`s1]frej Bnli Mefbne @dflfghd [rfsp`dts 2;>;nlj Bnli stncc sthgnt`s nljprfa`dthfls.

H. ZO@ R@DFS@RX



12/96

HLJPTZRHNE [RFJPDZHFL HT R@DFS@RHLM TONR[EX

Jrhv`l by hlv`ltfry r`stfdihlm, n phdiup hl jfg`sthd j`gnljnlj rhshlm xpfrts, hljustrhne prfjudthfl ons b``l fl to` r`bfulj

ndrfss j`vèfphlm @nst Nshn. Dohln e`j nmnhl, whto prfjudthfl up

l`nrey >3 p`rd`lt hl to` cfurto qunrt`r, gfr` tonl twhd` ns cnst ns

hl to` r`st fc to` r`mhfl fl nv`rnm`. Zonlis tf tohs swhct r`dfv`ry,

hljustrhne prfjudthfl cfr gfst dfultrh`s hs nt fr nbfv` pr`-drhshs

p`nis (Chmur` 3). ]ohe` e`vès fc prfjudthfl hl Gnenyshn nlj

[ohehpphl`s nr` gfj`stey bèfw pr`-drhshs e`vès, to` enrm` s`rvhd`

s`dtfrs hl to`s` dfultrh`s oèp`j nbsfrb substnlthne pnrt fc to`

r`juljnlt enbfr nlj l`w `ltrnlts, `lnbehlm n cnst`r r`dfv`ry hl

r`ne MJ[. Ns nl hljhdnthfl fc to` pnd` fc lne jfg`sthd j`gnlj,

nutfgfbhe` sne`s hl Dohln, Ifr`n, Zonhenlj nlj [ohehpphl`s

hldr`ns`j by gfr` tonl 2; p`rd`lt y`nr-fl-y`nr hl ent` 2;;8,

r`ndohlm r`dfrj ohmos. Dohlns gnri`t, gfr`fv`r, b`dng` to`

enrm`st hl to` wfrej hl 2;;8, fv`rtnihlm to` P.T., `v`l tofumo

nutfgfbhe` fwl`rsohp hl Dohln hs sthee rnto`r gfj`st (Chmur` =).

DN[NDHZX PZHEHQNZHFL HL HLJPTZRX NLJ

PL@G[EFXG@LZ NR@ NETF R@NDOHLM [R@-DRHTHT

E@S@ET

Dnpndhty uthehznthfl ons nesf rhs`l rnphjey hl ehl` whto prfjudthfl. Hl [ohehpphl`s nlj Ifr`n, dnpndhty uthehznthfl ons r`ndo`j pr`-

drhshs e`vès (Chmur` ?). Hl Zonhenlj, dnpndhty uthehznthfl hs trndihlm to` r`dfv`ry fc hgpfrtnlt s`dtfrs sudo ns vòhde`s, è`dtrflhd

nlj do`ghdne prfjudts. Fv`rnee, dnpndhty uthehznthfl hl to` r`mhfl hs r`dfv`rhlm cnst`r tonl `gpefyg`lt, summ`sthlm n strflm`r

prfjudthvhty mrfwto jurhlm to` r`dfv`ry (Chmur` 8).

Chmur` 0. Dflsug`r sfdh`ty1 prhvnt` dflsugpthfl ons dfltrhbut`j

gfr` tf mrfwto hl Dohln tonl hl to` fto`r ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s

fc @nst Nshn nlj to` P.T.

(hl p`rd`ltnm` pfhlts)

Tfurd`s1 D@HD nlj ]frej Bnli stncc dneduenthfls.*/ @N[-: hldeuj`s Hljfl`shn, Gnenyshn, [ohehpphl`s nlj Zonhenlj.

Chmur` :. @xpfrts, hlv`ltfry r`stfdihlm nlj prhvnt` dflsugpthfl

w`r` to` gnhl jrhv`rs fc mrfwto hl to` cfurto qunr t`r 2;;8

(dfltrhbuthfl hl p`rd`ltnm` pfhlts, s`nsflneey njaust`j)


Chmur` 4. Jhv`rs` but b`tt`r fl nv`rnm`1 r`ne MJ[ cfr j`vèfphlm

@nst Nshn nlj sè`dt`j dfultrh`s, 2;;8

(p`rd`lt donlm` y`nr-fl-y`nr9 @nst Nshn hl beu`)

Tfurd`s1 ]frej J`vèfpg`lt Hljhdntfrs nlj ]frej Bnli stncc dneduenthfls.

-8 -? -= -3 -0 -: -4 -2 -> ; > 2 4 : 0 3 = ? 8

DohlnZhgfr E`st`

E`bnlflHljhn

Bnlmenj`soPzbìhstnl

Sh`tlngL`pneGfrfddf

@mypt, Nrnb R`p. fcHljfl`shn

[npun L`w Muhl`nX`g`l, R`pubehd fc

Trh EnlinZulhshnAfrjnl

[nihstnlBfehvhnNem`rhn[fenlj

Hrnl, Hsenghd R`p. fc[ohehpphl`s

Ifr`n, R`p. fcBrnzhe

DfefgbhnMunt`gnen

InzniostnlLfrwny

GflmfehnGnenyshn

Dohe`Dngbfjhn

Znhwnl, Dohln@e Tnevnjfr

Crnld`@dunjfr

Nrm`lthlnThlmnpfr`

ZonhenljPlht`j Ttnt`s

OfljurnsChah

Oflm Iflm, DohlnTpnhl

Plht`j IhlmjfgTefvnihn

HtneyTw`j`l

M`rgnlyAnpnl

J`lgnriRusshnl C`j`rnthfl

OulmnryBuemnrhnG`xhdfChlenlj

RfgnlhnZuri`y

3


H. ZO@ R@DFS@RX


13/96

@_[FRZT NR@ X@Z ZF R@DFS@R CPEEX HL ZO@ R@MHFLT GHJJE@-HLDFG@ DFPLZRH@T

@xpfrt vfeug`s onv` surm`j shld` `nrey 2;;8 nlj onv` cueey r`dfv`r`j tf pr`-drhshs e`vès hl Dohln nlj Hljfl`shn. Hl Gnenyshn

nlj [ohehpphl`s, fl to` fto`r onlj, `xpfrt vneu`s nr` sthee >; p`rd`lt bèfw to` pr`-drhshs p`ni r`ndo`j hl Auey 2;;?, whto n

substnlthne pnrt fc to` sofrtcnee ju` tf efw`r prhd`s cfr è`dtrflhds dfgpfl`lts (Chmur` >;).

Zo` hlhthne r`bfulj hl `xpfrts crfg to` bfttfg r`ndo`j hl `nrey 2;;8 wns ju` tf n substnlthne j`mr`` tf Dohln. Ns j`gnlj hl

F@DJ dfultrh`s b`mnl tf r`dfv`r nct`r to` ghjje` fc 2;;8, nlj j`gnlj whtohl to` r`mhfl b`mnl rhshlm rfbustey, to` cfrd`s

bffsthlm r`mhflne `xpfrts sohct`j. Cfr to` y`nr ns n wofe`, to` `xpfrt r`dfv`ry hl Dohln wns jrhv`l gfstey by j`gnlj futshj`

@nst Nshn, wohe` to` r`dfv`ry ngflm to` LH@s wns gfstey ju` tf Dohln nlj fto`r @nst Nshnl dfultrh`s. Cfr to` r`gnhlhlm enrm`

ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s hl to` r`mhfl (Hljfl`shn, Gnenyshn, Zonhenlj nlj [ohehpphl`s) r`mhflne j`gnlj wns to` prhgnry jrhv`r,

netofumo pnrt fc to` uethgnt` j`gnlj hs hl j`vèfp`j dfultrh`s (Chmur` >>). Zohs s`qu`ldhlm fc r`dfv`ry summ`sts tont prfjudthfl

l`twfris peny`j n i`y rfe` jurhlm to` r`bfulj gudo ns to`y jhj jurhlm to` jfwlturl (Chmur` >0). Hl Dohln, cfr `xngpe`,

prfd`sshlm `xpfrts onv` rhs`l cnst`r tonl lfl-prfd`sshlm crfg to` trfumo (Chmur` >2).

Chmur` =. Mfhlm gfbhe`1 Dohln fv`rtni`s to` P.T. hl dnr prfjudthfl

nlj sne`

(Hgpfrts nlj prfjudthfl hl gheehfls fl to` e`ct sdne`9 dnrs p`r >,;;; fl to` rhmot sdne`)

Tfurd`s1 P.T. d`lsus, Dohl`s` stnthsthds nutofrhth`s.

Chmur` 3. Hljustrhne prfjudthfl ons gfstey r`dfv`r`j hl

@nst Nshn */

(Anlunry 2;>;, hl p`rd`lt crfg pr`-drhshs p`ni)

Tfurd`s1 D@HD nlj ]frej Bnli stncc dneduenthfls.*/ Lugb`rs hl brndi`ts j`lft` qunrt`rs crfg pr`-drhshs p`ni.

Chmur` 8. Pl`gpefyg`lt hs sthee gfj`stey ohmo`r tonl b`cfr`to` drhshs

(hl p`rd`lt, nllune nv`rnm`)

Tfurd`s1 Jntnstr`ng nlj ]frej Bnli stncc dneduenthfls.

Chmur` ?. Dnpndhty uthehznthfl hs rhshlm tf pr`-drhshs e`vès */

(hl p`rd`lt)

Tfurd`s1 Jntnstr`ng nlj ]frej Bnli stncc dneduenthfls.*/[urpe` bnrs j`lft` to` e`vè fc dnpndhty uthehznthfl hl to` cfurto qunr t`r. Zo` beu` bnrsg`nsur` tont e`vè tf to` pr`-drhshs p`ni.

H. ZO@ R@DFS@RX



14/96

Chmur` >;. @xpfrts onv` r`dfv`r`j hl Dohln nlj Hljfl`shn,

but nr` trnhehlm hl to` fto`r ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s hl j`v`efphlm

@nst Nshn

(hl P.T. jfeenr t`rgs, C`brunry 2;>; dfgpnr`j whto p`ni hl Auey 2;;?7>;;)


Chmur` >>. Jhcc`r`lt ofrs`s1 to` M-4s jhr`dt puee hs b`st s``l hl

Dohlns `xpfrts */

(dfltrhbuthfl tf to` donlm` hl xpfrts crfg C`brunry 2;;8 tf J`d`gb`r 2;;8)

Tfurd`s1 D@HD, Onv`r, nlj Bnli stncc. */ T@ Nshn : hldeuj`s to` [ohehpphl`s, Zonhenlj,Gnenyshn nlj Hljfl`shn, M-4 hldeuj`s to` P.T., to` @P nlj Anpnl.

Chmur` >2. Dohlns prfd`sshlm `xpfrts r`bfulj`j cnst`r nct`r

cneehlm gfr` st``pey

(hl p`rd`lt donlm`, y`nr-fl-y`nr, dflstnlt prhd`s)

Tfurd`s1 Jntnstr`ng, D@HD, nlj ]frej Bnli stncc dneduenthfls.

Chmur` >4. Fl to` rhs` nmnhl1 Dohlns trnj` bnenld` hs mrfwhlm nct`r

dfltrndthlm sonrpey hl `nrey 2;;8

(Hl bheehfls fc P.T. jfeenrs)

Tfurd`s1 Jntnstr`ng, D@HD, nlj ]frej Bnli stncc dneduenthfls.

Chmur` >:.Zo` r`mhfls sonr` hl mefbne `xpfrts ons dehgb`j curto`r

(Hl p`rd`lt fc tftne)

Tfurd`1 ]frej Bnli Mefbne J`v`efpg`lt Hljhdntfrs.

Chmur` >0. @e`dtrflhds `xpfrts onv` e`j to` r`dfv`ry

(Aue 2;;?7>;;)

Tfurd`s1 D@HD, Onv`r, nlj ]frej Bnli stncc.

?


H. ZO@ R@DFS@RX


15/96

E`j by Dohln, j`vèfphlm @nst Nshn gnlnm`j tf futp`rcfrg to` r`st fc to` wfrej. Netofumo Dohlns `xpfrts hl 2;;8 dfltrndt`j,

Dohln fv`rtffi M`rgnly ns to` wfrejs e`njhlm `xpfrt`r. Zo` r`mhfl, gfr`fv`r, dflthlu`j tf mnhl mefbne gnri`t sonr`, ns to`

sonr` fc njvnld`j `dflfgh`s cèe (Chmur` >:).

DN[HZNE HLCEF]T R@DFS@R@J HL DOHLN BPZ LFZ HL ZO@ FZO@R GHJJE@-HLDFG@ DFPLZRH@T

Dnphtne flfws tf @nst Nshns ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s fto`r tonl Dohln

onv` y`t tf r`dfv`r, j`spht` jhghlhso`j mefbne rhsi nv`rshfl nlj to`

l`nrey ulhv`rsne nss`ssg`lt tont @nst Nshn hs to` r`mhfl pfhs`j cfr

strflm`r mrfwto tonl fto`r j`vèfphlm dfultrh`s. Cefws tf Dohln onv`

surm`j, by dfltrnst, gfr` tonl `xd``jhlm pr`-drhshs e`vès (Znbe` 4).

]htohl fv`rnee flfws, lflr`shj`lt purdons`s fc `quhth`s nlj mfv`rlg`lt

j`bt s`durhth`s onv` hldr`ns`j. By dfltrnst, hlflfws fc cfr`hml jhr`dt

hlv`stg`lt r`gnhl subju`j nlj drfss-bfrj`r bnli e`ljhlm hs fley

bfttfghlm fut lfw. Hl sfg` dfultrh`s, lftnbey hldeujhlm Dohln nlj to`

LH@s, dfld`rls onv` hldr`ns j tont to` r`l`w`j hlflfws nr` oèphlm stfi`

nss`t prhd` bubbe`s. Zous cnr, to` nutofrhth`s onv` rèh`j fl n dfgbhlnthfl

fc st`rhehznthfl fc dnphtne flfws, thmot`r pruj`lthne nlj r`muentfry g`nsur`s, nlj hl sfg` dfultrh`s dfltrfes fl dnphtne. But hlflfws

dfuej dehgb curto`r ns to` gfl`tnry nutofrhth`s b`mhl tf hldr`ns` pfehdy hlt`r`st rnt`s, wohe` rnt`s hl j`vèfp`j dfultrh`s r`gnhl

uldonlm`j.

Mfv`rlg`lts hl to` r`mhfl w`r` ngflm to` rst `g`rmhlm gnri`ts tf hssu` cfr`hml-durr`ldy j`bt tohs y`nr. Thghenrey tf 2;;8,

Hljfl`shn nlj [ohehpphl`s w`r` nt to` cfr`crflt hl 2;>;, whto to` cfrg`r hssuhlm $2 bheehfl nlj to` entt`r $2.3 bheehfl tous cnr hl

2;>; nt spr`njs l`nr pr`-drhshs e`vès. Hl Anlunry, Sh`tlng nesf sfej hts rst sfv`r`hml bflj shld` Fdtfb`r 2;;0, n $> bheehfl t`l-

y`nr hssu` nt n spr`nj fc 44> bnshs pfhlts fv`r P.T. Zr`nsurh`s (Chmur` >3).

Znbe` 4. Dnphtne flfws tf to` r`mhfls ghjje`-hldfg`

dfultrh`s onv` lft r`dfv`r`j, ulehi` hl Dohln nlj to`

LH@s */

(hl bheehfls fc P.T. jfeenrs)

DohlnGhjje`-hldfg`

dfultrh`sLH@s

2;;= 8; > -4?

2;;? -= -4: -?:

2;;8 >3= -2; =0

Tfurd`1]frej Bnli sthgnt`s.*/ Hl tohs tnbe`, to` jntn cfr to` ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s hs n sug fc chmur`s cfrHljfl`shn, Gnenyshn, [ohehpphl`s nlj Zonhenlj.

Chmur` >=. wohe` Dohln nlj to` LH@s onv` bffst`j hssunld` hl

efdne durr`ldy

(hl P.T. jfeenr bheehfls quhvne`lt)

Tfurd`1 NJB.

Chmur` >3.Zo` mfv`rlg`lts fc Hljfl`shn nlj [ohehpphl`s onv` e`j

hssunld` hl cfr`hml `xdonlm`

(hl P.T. jfeenr bheehfls)

Tfurd`1 J`nefmhd.

H. ZO@ R@DFS@RX



16/96

Dohln ons e`j fl efdne durr`ldy hssunld`. Enst y`nr, Dohl`s` mfv`rlg`lts nt nee e`vès rnhs`j to` `quhvne`lt fc $>>: bheehfl gfr`

hl efdne durr`ldy bfljs tonl hl 2;;=, to` pr`vhfus p`ni y`nr (Chmur` >=).

Hlv`stfrs r`l`w`j `quhty purdons`s hl 2;;8, r`v`rshlm to` whtojrnwnes fc 2;;?. L`w `quhty hssu`s onv` oèp`j nttrndt cfr`hml

hlt`r`st, whto Dohlns $:; bheehfl hl hlhthne pubehd fcc`rhlms to` enrm`st ngflm g`rmhlm gnri`ts nlj jfube` to` 2;;? e`vè (Chmur`

>?).

Zo` rnphj `dflfghd r`dfv`ry, bufynlt jfg`sthd ehquhjhty nlj hl sfg` dfultrh`s r`l`w`j dnphtne flfws onv` bffst`j nss`t prhd`s.

Thghenrey tf fto`r j`vèfphlm r`mhfls, `quhty prhd`s hl to` r`mhfl onv` hldr`ns`j cnst`r tonl ngflm njvnld`j `dflfgh`s (Chmur`

>8). Dfld`rls nbfut vneunthfls rhshlm cnst`r tonl prfts nlj wfrrh`s nbfut to` soneefw lntur` fc sfg` gnri`ts e`j tf n substnlthne

dfrr`dthfl hl `nrey 2;>;. Nee hl nee, `quhty prhd`s jfube`j by Gnrdo 2;>; crfg to` efws r`ndo`j n y`nr `nreh`r, nl `xtrnfrjhlnry

rhs`. Ofw`v`r, prhd`s nr` sthee 4; p`rd`lt bèfw pr`-drhshs ohmos r`ndo`j hl ent` 2;;=.

R`l`w`j dnphtne flfws onv` b``l nddfgpnlh`j by durr`ldy nppr`dhnthfl nlj n sonrp jrfp hl yhèjs fl efdne-durr`ldy bfljs.

[rhd`s fc efdne durr`ldy bfljs, `sp`dhneey hl Hljfl`shn nlj [ohehpphl`s, surm`j crfg to`hr efws hl Fdtfb`r (Chmur` 2;). Zo` sonr`

fc cfr`hml hlv`stfrs hl efdne durr`ldy mfv`rlg`lt bfljs rfs` tf pr`-drhshs e`vès hl Hljfl`shn nlj Zonhenlj, but r`gnhls gudo

efw`r hl Gnenyshn nlj Ifr`n (Chmur` 2>).

Hlflfws fc cfr`hml jhr`dt hlv`stg`lt onv` b``l j`pr`ss`j b`dnus` fc nbuljnlt spnr` dnpndhty. Mhv`l to` r`mhfls rfbust prfsp`dts,

to`s` hlflfws sofuej r`dfv`r sffl`r tonl tf fto`r j`vèfphlm r`mhfls nct`r cneehlm enst y`nr tf 2;;0-2;;3 e`vès (Chmur` 22).

Dohln st`pp`j up hts hlv`stg`lt nbrfnj. Zo` surm` hl futflfws r`fl`dts gnhley purdons`s hl r`sfurd`-rènt`j dfgpnlh`s nbrfnj

(Chmur` 24). ]` jhsduss`j tohs tfphd hl j`tnhe hl fur Lfv`gb`r hssu` (Bfx > hl Zrnlscfrghlm to` R`bfulj hltf R`dfv`ry,Lfv`gb`r 2;;8). Zo`s` futwnrj flfws w`r` nddfgpnlh`j by hldr`ns`j e`ljhlm nbrfnj by Dohl`s` bnlis. Zohs hldeuj`j, cfr

`xngpe`, to` $20 bheehfl e`lt by Dohln J`vèfpg`lt Bnli tf fhe dfgpnlh`s Rfsl`ct nlj Zrnlsl`ct fc Russhn, nlj to` $>; bheehfl

tf to` fhe dfgpnly [`trfbrns fc Brnzhe, bfto tf b` r`pnhj by fhe sohpg`lts tf Dohln Lnthflne [`trfeùg Dfgpnly.

Drfss-bfrj`r e`ljhlm tf to` r`mhfl ons bfttfg`j fut. Futstnljhlm drfss-bfrj`r denhgs cèe sonrpey hl 2;;? nlj `nrey 2;;8, ns

bnlis hl j`vèfp`j dfultrh`s r`jud`j dr`jht nlj j`gnlj hl to` r`mhfl w`ni`l`j. But ns F@DJ (`sp`dhneey P.T.) bnlis de`nl`j

up to`hr bnenld` so``ts, drfss-bfrj`r bushl`ss b`mnl tf r`bfulj (Chmur` 2:). Denhgs fl dfultrh`s hl @nst Nshn nr` lfw nt e`vès

shghenr tf tofs` hl `nrey 2;;= nlj rhshlm (Chmur` 20).

Chmur` >?. Dohln nddfult`j cfr :; p`rd`lt fc `quhty hssunld` by

j`vèfphlm dfultrh`s hl 2;;8


Tfurd`1 J`nefmhd.

Chmur` >8. Tonr` prhd`s hl `g`rmhlm @nst Nshn onv` y`t tf r`turl tf

to` ohmos fc Fdtfb`r 2;;=

(Anlunry 2;;= 7 >.;;)

Tfurd`1 GTDH/Bnrrn.

>;


H. ZO@ R@DFS@RX


17/96

Chmur` 2;. R`turls fl bfljs p`rd`hv`j tf b` to` rhsih`st onv` rhs`l

gfst sonrpey

(r`turls hlj`x, J`d`gb`r 2;;; 7 >;;)

Tfurd`1 OTBD.

Chmur` 2>. nddfgpnlh`j by n mrfwhlm sonr` fc lflr`shj`lt

ofejhlms fc mfv`rlg`lt s`durhth`s hssu`j hl efdne durr`ldy

(hl p`rd`lt fc efdne durr`ldy mfv`rlg`lt bfljs futstnljhlm)

Tfurd`1 NJB.

Chmur` 22. Hlflfws fc cfr`hml jhr`dt hlv`stg`lt r`gnhl b`efw to`pr`-drhshs p`nis


Tfurd`1 Onv`r Nlneythds.

Chmur` 24.Nlj fley Dohln ons st`pp`j up cfr`hml jhr`dthlv`stg`lt nbrfnj


Tfurd`1 Onv`r Nlneythds.

Chmur` 2:. Bnlis hl j`v`efp`j `dflfgh`s nr` b`mhllhlm tf e`lj

nbrfnj nmnhl

(Dflsfehjnt`j cfr`hml denhgs, hl trheehfls fc P.T. jfeenrs)

Tfurd`1 BHT.

Chmur` 20. nlj drfss-bfrj`r e`ljhlm tf Nshn ons bfttfg`j fut


Tfurd`1 BHT.

H. ZO@ R@DFS@RX



18/96

ZO@ DRHTHT TEF]@J ZO@ [ND@ FC [FS@RZ X R@JPDZHFL HL J@S@EF[HLM @NTZ NTHN

Zo` drhshs sefw`j to` pnd` fc pfv`rty r`judthfl hl to` r`mhfl. Zo` j`nrto fc ohmo cr`qu`ldy jhsnmmr`mnt`j jntn fl prhvnt`

dflsugpthfl nlj hldfg`s gni`s n dfgprò`lshv` nss`ssg`lt jhcduet nlj nesf dflstrnhls to` `cc`dthv`l`ss fc to` pfehdy

r`spfls`. But shguenthfls whto nmmr`mnt` e`vè jntn summ`st tont ns gnly ns >: gheehfl gfr` p`fpe` whee b` hl pfv`rty hl 2;>;

ns n r`suet fc to` drhshs. Hl [ohehpphl`s, cfr `xngpe`, n dfultry tont npp`nrs tf onv` `xp`rh`ld`j nl hldr`ns` hl r`pfrt`j pfv`rty

jurhlm n p`rhfj fc `dflfghd mrfwto `nreh`r tohs j`dnj`, to` drhshs hs `sthgnt`j tf onv` hldr`ns`j to` pfv`rty rnt` by ns gudo ns

2 p`rd`ltnm` pfhlts. Ofw`v`r, pfees dfljudt`j by Tfdhne ]`nto`r Ttnthfls, n lfl-prft sfdhne r`s`nrdo hlsthtuthfl, hljhdnt` tont

fpthghsg nbfut to` jhr`dthfl fc to` `dflfgy onj m`l`rneey hldr`ns`j hl to` dfultry by to` `lj fc 2;;8.

Gfj`stey ohmo`r lugb`rs fl ul`gpefyg`lt fct`l dnptur` to` o`njehl`s, but to`y pr`s`lt n v`ry hldfgpe`t` phdtur` fc to` hgpndt

fc to` drhshs. Hl sfg` dfultrh`s, donlm`s hl `gpefyg`lt pntt`rls summ`st substnlthne gfv`g`lts fut fc fddupnthfls whto rènthv`

ohmo wnm`s tf fl`s whto efw`r wnm`s. Hl Dngbfjhn, afb efss`s hl to` ohmo`r pnyhlm gnlucndturhlm, dflstrudthfl, nlj tfurhsg

dfgpnlh`s e`j p`fpe` tf s`ì wfri hl to` efw`r pnyhlm nmrhdueturne s`dtfr (hldeujhlm ns subshst`ld` cnrg`rs). Hl Gnenyshn, to`

efss fc gnlucndturhlm afbs `nrey hl to` y`nr e`j tf afb hldr`ns`s hl r`tnhe trnj` nlj pubehd s`rvhd`s, wo`r` wnm` rnt`s nr` efw`r.

Zofs` succ`rhlm gfst nr` ulsihee`j enbfr`rs tont typhdneey tfhe hl to` hlcfrgne gnri`t fr nr` lmnm`j hl subshst`ld` nmrhduetur`. Zo`

Chmur` 2?. Hl Dohln, fley onec fc tofs` wof efst n afb hl to` fcc-cnrg

rurne s`dtfr nct`r T`pt`gb`r 2;;? cfulj n l`w fl`

(hl p`rd`lt)

Tfurd`1 Ounlm t ne. 2;>;.

Chmur` 28. gfst fc tofs` tont dfuej lft lj nl fcc-cnrg afb

gfv`j tf cnrghlm

(hl p`rd`lt)

Tfurd`1 Ounlm t ne. 2;>;.

Chmur` 23. Hl Dngbfjhn, ofurey wnm`s cèe sonrpey

(hl Dngbfjhnl Rhnes p`r ofur)

Tfurd`s1 DT@T nlj stncc dneduenthfls.

Chmur` 2=. ns jhj fcc-cnrg rurne wnm`s hl Dohln

(hl RGB p`r gflto)

Tfurd`1 Ahiul Ounlm t ne. 2;>;, Hgpndt fc Mefbne Chlnldhne Drhshs fl Fcc Cnrg@gpefyg`lt nlj @nrlhlms hl Rurne Dohln, pr`pnr`j cfr to` ]frej Bnli.

>2


H. ZO@ R@DFS@RX


19/96

drhshs jhj lft e`nv` to`g hje`, but whto to` rnlis fc to` hlcfrgneey `gpefy`j sw`ee`j by sfg` fc tofs` tont efst afbs hl to` cfrgne

s`dtfr, to`hr `nrlhlms c`ee substnlthneey. Cfr tofs` tont r`gnhl`j `gpefy`j hl `xpfrt-frh`lt`j hljustrh`s, to` jrfp hl `xpfrts g`nlt

n dfgbhlnthfl fc n sonrpey r`jud`j wnm` fr ofurs fc wfri. Hl Dngbfjhn, cfr `xngpe`, efw-wnm` mnrg`lt- nlj dflstrudthfl-s`dtfr wfri`rs w`r` pnrthduenrey onrj oht by to` sefwjfwl. Zofs` wof r`tnhl`j to`hr afbs hl to`s` s`dtfrs snw to`hr ofurey wnm`

rnt`s dut by ns gudo ns fl`-tohrj (Chmur` 23).

But `v`l whto r`jud`j wnm`s, wfri`rs wof r`tnhl`j to`hr afbs cnr`j gudo b`tt`r tonl tofs` wof r`turl`j tf to`hr vheenm`s nlj

afhl`j `xt`lj`j cngheh`s tont onj ehtte` njjhthflne wfri tf fcc`r. Hl Dohln, to` hlflux fc ghmrnlts tont r`turl`j ofg` hs r`pfrt`j tf

onv` j`pr`ss`j fcc-cnrg wnm`s by l`nrey n cto (Chmur` 2=). @v`l nt to` efw`r wnm` rnt`s, fley onec fc tofs` wof efst afbs hl to`

fcc-cnrg rurne s`dtfr cfulj n afb9 fc to` r`st, gfst gfv`j hltf subshst`ld` cnrghlm (Chmur` 2? nlj Chmur` 28).

H. ZO@ R@DFS@RX



20/96

HH. ZO@ TOFRZ-Z@RG DONEE@LM@1 ]HZOJRN]HLM ZO@ TZHGPEPT

]HZOFPZ JHTRP[ZHLM ZO@ R@DFS@RX

[R@GNZPR@ ]HZOJRN]NE FC CHTDNE TZHGPEPT R@GNHLT N BHM RHTI

Chsdne `nshlm oèp`j ehght to` sefwjfwl hl `dflfghd mrfwto ndrfss @nst Nshn nlj to` [ndhd. Enrmèy tonlis tf sdne sthgueus

g`nsur`s tont nv`rnm`j 2 p`rd`lt fc MJ[ hl 2;;8, nlj suppfrt`j by gfl`tnry nlj qunsh- sdne `nshlm, futput mrfwto w`ni`l`j

by gudo e`ss hl to` r`mhfl tonl hl fto`r j`vèfphlm r`mhfls fr njvnld`j `dflfgh`s (Chmur` 4;). Gfst dfultrh`s hl @nst Nshn onj

to` sdne spnd` tf hgpe`g`lt sdne sthgueus g`nsur`s cfr to` rst thg` hl j`dnj`s. Hl sfg` dfultrh`s, gfr`fv`r, to` mfv`rlg`lt

sthgueus wns gudo enrm`r tonl hgpeh`j by o`njehl` sdne lugb`rs cfr to` d`ltrne mfv`rlg`lt. Hl Dohln, cfr xngpe`, to` hldr`ns`

hl to` sdne j`dht wns ehght`j tf >.? p`rd`lt fc MJ[ hl 2;;8. But tont gfj`st rhs` hl to` j`dht wns nddfgpnlh`j by n surm` hl

mfv`rlg`lt-e`j hlv`stg`lt by ns gudo ns 3 p`rd`lt fc MJ[ nlj n augp hl bnli e`ljhlm gudo fc ht tf lnld` mfv`rlg`lt-e`j

prfa`dts by nbfut 4; p`rd`lt fc MJ[. Gfst fc to` sthgueus hl Dohln, ns n r`suet, wns qunsh-sdne.

Chsdne j`dhts nlj mfv`rlg`lt j`bt rfs` by gudo e`ss tonl hl fto`r r`mhfls j`spht` to` sdne sthgueus g`nsur`s. Zohs futdfg`

r`fl`dt`j to` sgnee`r j`t`rhfrnthfl hl mrfwto nlj to` gfj`st rfe` fc nutfgnthd stnbhehz`rs hl to` r`mhfl. Zo` g`jhnl sdne j`dht

hl j`vèfphlm @nst Nshn nlj Ifr`n rfs` by nbfut 2.= p`rd`lt fc MJ[ hl 2;;8 rènthv` tf 2;;=, fr fley onec ns gudo ns hl @urfp`

nlj D`ltrne Nshn nlj aust fl`-cfurto fc to` hldr`ns` ngflm njvnld`j `dflfgh`s (Chmur` 4>). Nlj j`bt e`vès onv` rhs`l gudo

gfr` gfj`stey tonl hl to` r`st fc to` wfrej, hl stnri dfgpnrhsfls tf gfst j`vèfp`j dfultrh`s wo`r` mfv`rlg`lt j`bt whee `xd``j>;; p`rd`lt fc MJ[ by 2;>:.>

Hl gfst dfultrh`s, ht hs sthee pr`gntur` tf whtojrnw to` sdne sthgueus b`dnus` fc spnr` dnpndhty nlj ngpe` sdne spnd`. Zo`

nutofrhth`s hl to` r`mhfl l``j tf r`nss`ss to` sdne pfehdy stnld` ent`r hl to` y`nr hl ehmot fc mefbne j`vèfpg`lts, nlj to`

nvnhenbhehty fc sdne spnd`. Mfv`rlg`lts gny b` hldehl`j tfwnrj sustnhlhlm to`hr `xpnlshflnry sdne stnld` cfr nl `xt`lj`j

> ]hto to` `xd`pthfl fc Dnlnjn nlj M`rgnly, bns`j fl r`gnris by Afol Ehpsiy, Chrst J`puty Gnlnmhlm Jhr`dtfr fc to` HGC, tf to` Dohln J`vèfpg`lt Cfrug, Gnrdo 2;>;, ottp1//

www.hgc.frm/`xt`rlne/lp/sp``do`s/2;>;/;42>>;.otg.

Chmur` 4;. Chsdne sthgueus hl to` r`mhfl dfgpnr`j wèe whto fto`r

dfultrh`s

(hl p`rd`lt fc MJ[)

Tfurd`s1 Lnthflne nutofrhth`s nlj stncc sthgnt`s.

Chmur` 4>. Chsdne j`dhts onv` rhs`l ju` tf sdne sthgueus

pndinm`s nlj w`ni`r `dflfghd ndthvhty

(hl p`rd`lt fc MJ[)

Tfurd`s1 Lnthflne nutofrhth`s nlj Bnli stncc prfa`dthfls.Lft`1 @DN 7 @urfp` nlj D`ltrne Nshn9 @N[7 @nst Nshn nlj [ndhchd9 M2; (j`v) hldeuj`sfley to` j`vèfp`j M2; dflfgh`s.

>:


HH. ZO@ TOFRZ-Z@RG DONEE@LM@1 ]HZOJRN]HLM ZO@ TZHGPEPT ]HZOFPZ JHTRP[ZHLM ZO@ R@DFS@RX


21/96

p`rhfj tf r`turl tf pr`-drhshs mrfwto rnt`s hl to` sofrt t`rg. But tohs wfuej b` n ghstni`, ns pr`-drhshs mrfwto rnt`s w`r` nrthdhneey

bufy`j by to` lnldhne bubbe` hl njvnld`j `dflfgh`s. Dfgpnrhlm e`vès fc r`ne MJ[ bns`j fl futput mrfwto torfumo 2;;=

whto nlfto`r torfumo 2;>; r`suets hl n mnp fc ns gudo ns >; p`rd`lt by 2;>0. Pshlm sdne pfehdy tf brhjm` to` mnp whee e`nj tf

fv`ro`nthlm (Chmur` 44). Zo` fej lfrgne hs lf gfr` nlj sdne pfehdy l``js tf njaust tf to` donlm`j dhrdugstnld`s.

Dohln nlj Sh`tlng fcc`r hgpfrtnlt e`ssfls cfr fto`r dfultrh`s fl to` donee`lm`s fc gnlnmhlm sdne sthgueus ns r`dfv`ry phdis up.

B`dnus` dr`jht wns to` prhldhpne nv`lu` cfr to` sthgueus `ccfrts hl Dohln, mfv`rlg`lt j`bt bnrèy donlm`j rènthv` tf MJ[. @v`l

tofumo Dohlns r`sfurd`s nr` sudo tont enrm`sdne nlj qunsh-sdne sthgueus gny b` gnhltnhl`j cfr gudo eflm`r, to` nutofrhth`s nr`

ghljcue tont to` rnphj dr`jht `xpnlshfl l``js tf b` durb`j tf ehght rhsis fc nss`t prhd` bubbe`s nlj fv`ro`nthlm. Zo` mfv`rlg`lt,

ns n r`suet, hs ehghthlm njjhthflne sthgueus nlj prfa`dthlm r`ne MJ[ mrfwto fc ? p`rd`lt hl 2;>;, wèe-bèfw dfls`lsus prfa`dthfls

nlj to` ]frej Bnlis 8.0 p`rd`lt cfr`dnst hl nl `ccfrt tf neefw gfr` rffg cfr pft`lthne whtojrnwne fc sthgueus. Hl Sh`tlng, to`

sdne j`dht r`ndo`j negfst >; p`rd`lt fc MJ[ hl 2;;8 hldeujhlm fcc-bujm`t sp`ljhlm, to` ohmo`st hl to` r`mhfl. Zo` nutofrhth`s

onv` swhtdo`j m`nr crfg sthguenthlm jfg`sthd j`gnlj tf pr`v`lthlm fv`ro`nthlm nlj onv` t`rghlnt`j s`v`rne dfgpfl`lts fc

to` sdne sthgueus, hldeujhlm to` hlt`r`st rnt` subshjy. Zf `lsur` j`bt sustnhlnbhehty, to` mfv`rlg`lt penls tf r`jud` to` j`dht tf

3.2 p`rd`lt fc MJ[ hl 2;>;, nlj curto`r tf 4-: p`rd`lt fv`r to` g`jhug-t`rg.

GFTZ D@LZRNE BNLIT ONS@ B@MPL ZF T@E@DZHS@EX ZHMOZ@L GFL@ZNRX [FEHDX

Thmls fc rhshlm hlflnthfl nct`r gfltos fc trnlquhehty nlj rfbust `dflfghd r`dfv`ry onv` e`j to` gfl`tnry nutofrhth`s hl gfst

dfultrh`s hl @nst Nshn tf b`mhl thmot`lhlm gfl`tnry pfehdy. Dfultrh`s hl to` r`mhfl onv` njvnld`j substnlthneey to` r`gfvne

fc g`nsur`s prfvhjhlm ehquhjhty suppfrt hl efdne nlj cfr`hml durr`ldh`s. Dohln nlj Hljfl`shn nr` ghjwny fl to` rfnj tfwnrjr`turlhlm r`s`rv` r`quhr`g`lts tf pr`-drhshs e`vès. D`ltrne bnlis nr` nesf s`t tf sdne` bndi to` typ`s fc dfeent`rne èhmhbe` cfr

ndd`sshlm d`ltrne bnli cndhehth`s. Gnenyshn nlj Sh`tlng e`j to` r`mhfl whto rnhshlm pfehdy hlt`r`st rnt`s, cfeefwhlm fl ohi`s hl

Nustrnehn, Lfrwny, nlj fc ent` Hljhn.

Nee `y`s nr` fl Dohlns gfl`tnry pfehdy. [fehdy ndthfls onv` b``l jhv`rs` sf cnr nlj cfeefw`j `xd`pthflneey strflm dr`jht mrfwto

enst y`nr tont bffst`j to` stfdi fc jfg`sthd dr`jht tf to` ohmo`st e`vès hl to` r`mhfl fc nbfut >:; p`rd`lt fc MJ[. Dohlns d`ltrne

bnli hldr`ns`j r`s`rv r`quhr`g`lts twhd` tohs y`nr nlj hs hgpe`g`lthlm n sgnee`r quftn e`vè cfr bnli e`ljhlm nhg`j nt sefwhlm

dr`jht mrfwto tf >? p`rd`lt tohs y`nr crfg 4; p`rd`lt hl 2;;8. Zo` nutofrhth`s onv` nesf hldr`ns`j jfwl-pnyg`lt r`quhr`g`lts

Chmur` 44. Jf yfu wnlt tf brhjm` ht6 Zo` drhshs hs prfa`dt`j tf

r`jud` futput by ns gudo ns >; p`rd`lt rènthv` tf n oypfto`thdne

tr`lj bns`j fl jntn torfumo 2;;=

(Hlj`x, j`vèfphlm @nst Nshn xde. Dohln, 2;;;7>;;)

Tfurd`1 ]frej Bnli stncc dneduenthfls.

Chmur` 42. Mfv`rlg`lt j`bt burj`ls onv` r`gnhl`j gfj`rnt`

hl gfst j`vèfphlm @nst Nshnl dfultrh`s nlj rhs`l by e`ss tonl hl

njvnld`j `dflfgh`s

(hl p`rd`lt fc MJ[)

Tfurd`s1 Lnthflne sfurd`s, @urfp`nl Dfgghsshfl, nlj ]frej Bnli stncc prfa`dthfls.




22/96

cfr s`dflj nlj tohrj ofg`s. Gfst hgpfrtnltey, gnri`t pnrthdhpnlts nr` lfw nee but d`rtnhl fc nl hgghl`lt hldr`ns` hl pfehdy rnt`s

tf oèp ehght hlflnthfl pr`ssur`s. Nee hl nee, thmot`r gfl`tnry dfljhthfls nr` oèphlm sefw dr`jht mrfwto tf hts pr`-drhshs pnd`, ns

g`nsur`s hl s`nsflneey njaust`j t`rgs (Chmur` 4:).

Fto`r dfultrh`s nr` prfd``jhlm nt n jhcc`r`lt pnd`. Zo` nutofrhth`s hl Sh`tlng nbfehso`j nl hlt`r`st rnt` subshjy tont wns i`y tf

enst y`nrs strflm dr`jht mrfwto, nlj ohi`j to` gnhl pfehdy rnt` by >;; bnshs pfhlts tf ? p`rd`lt nghj rnphjey rhshlm hlflnthfl. Zo`s`

g`nsur`s onv` b``l nddfgpnlh`j by `ccfrts tf bffst jfeenr ehquhjhty hl to` gnri`t, hldeujhlm twf j`vneunthfls fc to` durr`ldy,

n dnp fl jfeenr j`pfsht rnt`s nlj n sonrp dut hl jfeenr r`s`rv` r`quhr`g`lts. Gnenyshns d`ltrne bnli nesf hldr`ns`j hts i`y pfehdy

rnt` hl Gnrdo. Zo` ohi` fc 20 bnshs pfhlts sthee e`nv`s rnt`s wèe-bèfw pr`-drhshs e`vès, ofw`v`r, nlj c`w gnri`t pnrthdhpnlts

`xp`dt gfr` rnphj lfrgnehznthfl. Hl [ohehpphl`s, to` d`ltrne bnli shmlne`j n de`nr `xht strnt`my hl Anlunry, stnrthlm by brhlmhlm hts

r`jhsdfult rnt` hl ehl` whto to` gnhl fv`rlhmot pfehdy rnt`.

Dnphtne hlflfws nlj effs` dr`jht dfljhthfls onv` bffst`j sne`s nlj prhd`s fc r`ne `stnt` ndrfss to` r`mhfl, `sp`dhneey hl Dohln, hl

to` LH@s, nlj hl Sh`tlng. ]hto efnls cfr prfp`rty j`vèfpg`lt up by n tohrj hl 2;;8 nlj gfrtmnm` efnls up by l`nrey onec, sne`s

fc r`shj`lthne prfp`rty r`dfv`r`j sonrpey hl Dohln (Chmur` 40). R`shj`lthne prfp`rty prhd`s nr` rhshlm rnphjey, gnrihlm nl hldr`ns`

fc >3 p`rd`lt hl 2;;8.

@_DONLM@ GNRI@Z HLZ@RS@LZHFL NLJ DPRR@LDX

N[[R@DHNZHFL ONS@ R@ZPRL@J

Rfbust fpthghsg ngflm jfg`sthd nlj cfr`hml hlv`stfrs, nlj

Dohlns dflthlu`j j` cndtf p`m tf to` jfeenr, ons e`j gfstnutofrhth`s hl to` r`mhfl tf `lmnm` hl enrm` `xdonlm` gnri`t

hlt`rv`lthfl tf ehght durr`ldy nppr`dhnthfl (Chmur` 43). @xdonlm`

rnt`s hl Hljfl`shn, Zonhenlj, Gnenyshn nlj [ohehpphl`s onv` nee

r`dfv`r`j tf to`hr pr`-drhshs e`vès. ]hto rhshlm hlflnthfl nlj

nss`t prhd`s, nlj dflthlu`j strflm `dflfghd mrfwto, to` r`ne

`xdonlm` rnt` hl Dohln hs ehièy tf nppr`dhnt`. Zo` dofhd` hs

wo`to`r tohs fddurs torfumo ohmo`r hlflnthfl, fr torfumo n rhs` hl

to` durr`ldy tf oèp gfj`rnt` hlflnthfl. Hl Ifr`n nlj Sh`tlng,

Chmur` 4:. Dr`jht mrfwto ons stnrt`j tf sefw tohs y`nr hl Dohln

(p`rd`lt donlm` y`nr-fl-y`nr)

Tfurd`1 [r`pnr`j by _u Mnf crfg D@HD jntn.

Chmur` 40. Tne`s fc r`shj`lthne prfp`rty onv` r`dfv`r`j st``pey

hl Dohln

(hl gheehfls fc squnr` g`t`rs)

Tfurd`1 D@HD.

Chmur` 43. Enrm` dnphtne hlflfws oèp`j durr`ldh`s str`lmto`l

j`spht` `xdonlm` gnri`t hlt`rv`lthfl

(p`rd`lt donlm` jurhlm 2;;8)

Tfurd`1 D@HD.

>3




23/96

by dfltrnst, `xdonlm` rnt`s nr` w`ni`r tonl b`cfr` to` drhshs. Hl Ifr`n, tohs r`fl`dts enrm` xdonlm` gnri`t hlt`rv`lthfl, dfgbhl`j

whto gfl`tnry nddfggfjnthfl tont ons i`pt to` gnhl pfehdy rnt` to` efw`st e`vès hl to` r`mhfl. Hl Sh`tlng, by dfltrnst, hlv`stfr

dfld`rls nbfut to` e`vè fc r`s`rv`s tont jhpp`j bèfw 4 gfltos hgpfrt dfv`r i`pt to` `xdonlm` rnt` nt to` bfttfg fc to`bnlj nrfulj to` jflms p`m tf jfeenr nlj wns fl` fc to` gnly cndtfrs tont prfgpt`j twf j`vneunthfls fc to` jflm hl Lfv`gb`r

enst y`nr (by 0 p`rd`lt) nlj hl Anlunry 2;>; (by 4.4 p`rd`lt).




24/96

HHH. ZO@ HG[@RNZHS@ CFR R@L@]@J TZRPDZPRNE R@CFRGT

R`dfv`ry hl j`gnlj nbrfnj nlj rnphj r`bfulj hl dflsug`r sp`ljhlm nlj sustnhl`j sdne sthgueus nt ofg` sofuej oèp bffst

`dflfghd mrfwto hl j`vèfphlm @nst Nshn hl 2;>;. ]` nr` rnhshlm fur prfa`dthfl cfr r`ne MJ[ mrfwto hl to` r`mhfl tf ?.= p`rd`lt,

fr by negfst n p`rd`ltnm` pfhlt nbfv` fur Lfv`gb`r 2;;8 cfr`dnst (Zrnlscfrghlm to` R`bfulj hltf R`dfv`ry hssu`j flLfv`gb`r =, 2;;8) (Znbe` :).

Zohs upwnrj r`vhshfl dfltrnsts whto n gfj`st jfwlwnrj r`vhshfl cfr to` M-4 tont r`fl`dts n dut hl fur prfa`dthfl cfr to` @P.

Cfr`dnsts cfr to` @P onv` b``l r`vhs`j jfwl, ns sdne dflstrnhlts onv` ehght`j to` nbhehty fc mfv`rlg`lts tf bffst ndthvhty. Zo`

@P nshj`, w` nr` rnhshlm fur prfa`dthfls cfr to` P.T. nlj Anpnl ns n r`suet fc gnri`jey strflm`r-tonl-`xp`dt`j r`dfv`ry hl ent`

2;;8 nlj tous cnr hl 2;>;. But to` str`lmto fc to` r`dfv`ry hs ehièy tf wnl` jurhlm 2;>; ns to` `cc`dts fc to` sdne sthgueus nlj

to` hlv`ltfry dyde`s w`nr fcc. Nee hl nee, r`ne MJ[ mrfwto hl to` M-4 hs prfa`dt`j tf gfj`rnt` tf >.=-2.; p`rd`lt tohs y`nr nlj hl

2;>>.

@nst Nshns r`dfv`ry sofuej b` suppfrt`j

by rfbust dnphtne hlflfws. Mefbne dnphtne

flfws r`bfulj`j hl to` s`dflj onec fc 2;;8

nghj r`jud`j uld`rtnhlty nlj jhghlhso`j

rhsi nv`rshfl. @v`l sf, l`t prhvnt` flfws tf

j`vèfphlm `dflfgh`s ngfult`j tf nbfut

$:0; bheehfl nllunehz`j hl to` s`dflj onec

fc 2;;8, jfwl crfg to` $>,2;; bheehfl

p`ni hl 2;;=. Zo` ]frej Bnli prfa`dts

mefbne flfws tf b` ehght`j tf $=;;-?;;

bheehfl tohs y`nr nlj l`xt, ns mefbne bnlis

dflthlu` tf rnhs` dnphtne tf j`ne whto efss`s

nlj ns `xd`ss dnpndhty durbs cfr`hml jhr`dt

hlv`stg`lt.

@nst Nshn hs pfhs`j tf r`d`hv` n enrm`r sonr`

fc to` prfa`dt`j hldr`ns` hl mefbne dnphtne

flfws. @nst Nshn r`d`hv`j n cfurto fc mefbne

prhvnt` dnphtneflfws hl 2;;= dfgpnr`j whto

l`nrey onec cfr @urfp` nlj D`ltrne Nshn.

Zo` flfws tf to` entt`r, ofw`v`r, r`fl`dt`j tf

n substnlthne xt`lt n surm` hl dflsugpthfl-

rènt`j sp`ljhlm tont wns lft sustnhlnbe`nlj hs ulehièy tf b` r`p`nt`j nly thg`

sffl. Dnphtne flfws tf @nst Nshn whee b`

suppfrt`j by `xp`dtnthfls fc rfbust mrfwto

bns`j fl sfehj culjng`ltnes nlj pruj`lt

pfehdh`s tont nr` ehièy tf b` njaust`j whto

gfr` nmhehty tf to` donlm`j dhrdugstnld`s

fc to` mefbne `dflfgy tonl hl fto`r j`vèfphlm r`mhfls (s`` bèfw cfr jhsdusshfl). Dfld`rls nbfut nss`t bubbe`s gny r`suet hl

`ccfrts tf durb hlflfws, i``phlm fv`rnee gnmlhtuj`s brfnjey shghenr tf to` y`nr b`cfr` to` drhshs (Chmur` 4=).

Znbe` :. [rfsp`dts cfr @nst Nshn nlj to` [ndhd nr` brhmot

([`rd`lt donlm` y-y ule`ss hljhdnt`j fto`rwhs`)

Cfr`dnsts cfr 2;;8

J`d;? Npr ;8 Lfv;8

2;;? 2;;8 2;>;c 2;>>c 2;;8 2;;8 2;;8

J`vèfphlm @nst Nshn ?.0 =.; ?.= ?.; 3.= 0.4 3.=

Dohln 8.3 ?.= 8.0 ?.= =.0 3.0 ?.:

Hljfl`shn 3.> :.0 0.3 3.2 :.: 4.: :.4

Gnenyshn :.3 ->.= 0.= 0.4 4.= ->.; -2.4

[ohehpphl`s 4.? ;.8 4.0 4.? 4.; >.8 >.:

Zonhenlj 2.3 -2.4 3.2 :.; 4.3 -2.= -2.=

Sh`tlng 3.2 0.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0Dngbfjhn 3.= -2.; :.: 3.; :.8 ->.; -2.2

Enf [JR =.0 3.= =.= =.? 3.; 0.; 3.:

Zhgfr-E`st` >2.? =.: =.0 =.: >.: >.; =.:

Gflmfehn ?.8 ->.3 =.4 =.> =.0 2.= ;.0

Chah -;.> -2.0 2.; 2.2 >.> 2.: -;.4

[npun L`w Muhl`n 3.= :.0 ?.; 0.0 0.; :.= 4.8

G`gfrnljn1

J`vèfphlm @nst Nshn

Ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s ?.3 =.2 ?.= ?.; 3.? 0.: 3.8

Efw-hldfg` dfultrh`s 3.4 :.4 3.: 3.: 3.> :.= :.0

@xdeujhlm Dohln

J`vèfphlm @nst Nshn :.= >.4 0.0 0.2 :.> >.> >.>

Ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s :.0 ;.8 0.: 0.> 4.? ;.= ;.=

M-4 ;.4 -4.0 >.= 2.; -;.: -4.> -4.0Mefbne trnj` vfeug`s 4.; ->:.: :.4 0.4 -2.> -3.; ->>.:

Tfurd`s1Jntnstr`ng9 ]frej Bnli Mefbne J`vèfpg`lt [rfsp`dts9 nlj stncc sthgnt`s nlj prfa`dthfls. c7cfr`dnst

>?




25/96

HZT N L@] ]FREJ

@nst Nshn whee cnd` n jhcc`r`lt mefbne `dflfgy fv`r to` g`jhug t`rg. Zo` l`w lfrgne hs ehièy tf b` donrndt`rhz`j by sefw`r

mrfwto hl j`vèfp`j dfultrh`s, thmot`r mefbne lnldhne dfljhthfls, rhshlm dfld`rls nbfut j`vèfp`j dfultrh`s j`bt e`vès, nlj

n gfr` jhcduet `lvhrflg`lt cfr cr`` trnj`. Mrfwto hl j`vèfp`j dfultrh`s whee b` sefw`r tonl fbs`rv`j b`cfr` to` drhshs, ns

bnlis, dfgpnlh`s nlj ofusòfejs dflthlu` tf jè`v`rnm`, nlj `gpefyg`lt nlj ofushlm prhd`s r`gnhl wèe bèfw to` p`ni fc

r`d`lt y`nrs. Plj`r to`s` dhrdugstnld`s, futput sofuej r`gnhl bèfw pft`lthne torfumo 2;>: (Chmur` 4?). Chlnldhne dfljhthfls

sofuej r`gnhl gfr` dflstrnhl`j, ns ohmo-hldfg` dfultrh`s hltrfjud` r`muenthfl tf r`jud` `xd`sshv` rhsi tnihlm by lnldhne

hlt`rg`jhnrh`s, hldeujhlm torfumo ohmo`r dnphtne r`quhr`g`lts nlj rue`s tont ehght bnli shz` tf njjr`ss dfld`rls nbfut tff

syst`ghdneey hgpfrtnlt tf cnhe.

Enrm` sdne j`dhts nlj rnphjey hldr`nshlm mfv`rlg`lt j`bt whee nesf w`hmo fl j`vèfp`j dfultrh`s mrfwto prfsp`dts. Zo` enrm`

nlj thgèy sdne sthgueus pndinm`s ngflm to` enrm` j`vèfp`j `dflfgh`s oèp`j ghthmnt` to` hgpndt fc to` mefbne lnldhne nlj

`dflfghd drhshs. But dfld`rls nr` rhshlm wo`to`r to`r` whee b` sucdh`lt pfehthdne whee cfr sdne dflsfehjnthfl fv`r to` g`jhug

t`rg. [rfa`dthfls by to` P.T. Dflmr`sshflne Bujm`t Fcd`, cfr `xngpe`, summ`st tont to` P.T. sdne j`dht whee lnrrfw tf l`nr

: p`rd`lt fc MJ[ by 2;>: ulj`r durr`lt penls b`cfr` whj`lhlm nmnhl torfumo to` `lj fc to` j`dnj` ns nm`-rènt`j sp`ljhlm

surm`s.2J`shmlhlm nlj hgpe`g`lthlm n dr`jhbe` g`jhug-t`rg

sdne crng`wfri tont njjr`ss`s to`s` sdne donee`lm`s hl to`

P.T., Anpnl nlj fto`r njvnld`j `dflfgh`s whee mf n eflm wny

hl oèphlm suppfrt mefbne ndthvhty hl to` eflm`r t`rg nlj r`jud`

rhsis fc nlfto`r lnldhne drhshs.

J`spht` n w`ni`r mefbne `dflfgy, @nst Nshn sthee ons to`

dnpnbhehty tf mrfw strflmey fv`r to` g`jhug t`rg. But tohs whee

lft b` `nsy tf ndoh`v` nlj whee lft b` nutfgnthd. Ttrflm nlj

hldeushv` mrfwto whee r`quhr` r`l`w`j vhmfr hl hgpe`g`lthlm

i`y strudturne r`cfrgs hl dfultrh`s nlj nt to` r`mhflne e`vè.

Nlj to` dfultry prhfrhth`s cfr strudturne r`cfrgs nr` ehièy tf

2 T`` www.dbf.mfv.

Chmur` 4?. Futput hl njvnld`j `dflfgh`s hs s`t tf r`gnhl bèfw

pft`lthne torfumo 2;>:

(futput mnp hl p`rd`lt fc MJ[)

Tfurd`s1 HGC nlj ]@F jntnbns` 2;;8.

Chmur` 4=. @nst Nshn hs pfhs`j tf r`d`hv` n enrm`r sonr` fc l`t

prhvnt` flfws tf j`vèfphlm dfultrh`s

(Hl trheehfls fc P.T. jfeenrs)

Tfurd`s1 ]frej Bnlis J`vèfpg`lt [rfsp`dts Mrfup torfumo 2;;?, to` Hlsthtut` fcHlt`rlnthflne Chlnld` cfr 2;;8-2;>> (Dnphtne Cefws, Gnrdo 2;>;, www.hhc.dfg).

Chmur` 48. @nst Nshn hs gfr` jhv`rs` tonl fto`r j`vèfphlm r`mhfls

(stnljnrj j`vhnthfls fc enlj nr`n nlj MJ[ p`r dnphtn)

Tfurd`1 ]frej J`vèfpg`lt Hljhdntfrs.




26/96

b` ns jhv`rs` ns dfultry dhrdugstnld`s hl to` gfst jhv`rs` r`mhfl hl to` wfrej, wo`to`r g`nsur`j by pfpuenthfl, enlj nr`n, p`r

dnphtn hldfg` nlj prfjudthfl (Chmur` 48). Zo` l`xt s`dthfl hj`lth`s to` shlme` bhmm`st donee`lm`s cndhlm to` v` sub-mrfups fc

dfultrh`s tont dfgprhs` j`vèfphlm @nst Nshn1 Dohln, wohdo j`s`rv`s n dnt`mfry fc hts fwl9 to` r`mhfls ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s9to` efw-hldfg` dfultrh`s9 to` dfggfjhty prfjud`rs nlj `xpfrt`rs9 nlj to` [ndhd hsenljs.

CFR DOHLN, ZO@ DONEE@LM@ ]HEE B@ ZF R@BNENLD@ ZO@ @DFLFGX

Dohlns rnphj dnphtne-hlt`lshv`, `xpfrt-frh`lt`j mrfwto ons b``l sp`dtnduenrey sudd`sscue. But to` mefbne gnri`ts ht rèh`j fl whee

b` w`ni`r hl to` l`nr cutur`. Nlj cfr nee hts sudd`ss`s, to` `xhsthlm pntt`rl fc mrfwto hs `l`rmy- nlj lnturne r`sfurd`- hlt`lshv`,

`lvhrflg`ltneey ulsustnhlnbe`, nlj jf`s lft dr`nt` `lfumo urbnl afbs. Tuppfrthlm ht ons r`quhr`j `v`r ohmo`r dfrpfrnt` snvhlms

nlj sustnhl`j `xpehdht nlj hgpehdht mfv`rlg`lt subshjh`s. Hl`qunehty ons dehgb`j tf e`vès npprfndohlm tofs` hl Enthl Ng`rhdn.

Nlj endi fc ndd`ss tf o`neto, `judnthfl fr sfdhne suppfrt by to` pffr g`nls tont gheehfls fc ghmrnlts e`nv` to`hr dohejr`l bòhlj

ns to`y gfv` tf to` dfnstne nr`ns hl s`nrdo fc wfri. Zo` hgpfrtnld` fc njjr`sshlm to`s` donee`lm`s ons b``l enhj bnr` by to` drhshs

nlj hts nct`rgnto fc sefw`r mefbne `xpnlshfl tont nr` donee`lmhlm sfg` fc to` cfuljnthfls fc Dohlns durr`lt mrfwto gfjè.

Zo` dns` cfr r`bnenldhlm ons b``l gnj` cfrd`cueey by to` Dohl`s` nutofrhth`s nlj hs to` d`lt`r-ph`d` fc to` >>to v`-y`nr penl.

Zo` drhshs sefw`j prfmr`ss fl ccfrts tf mhv` enrm`r w`hmot tf jfg`sthd sfurd`s fc mrfwto (Chmur` :; nlj Chmur` :>). Lfl`toè`ss,i`y g`nsur`s onv` b``l tni`l, hldeujhlm n bffst tf sp`ljhlm fl o`neto, judnthfl, nlj sfdhne hlsurnld`, hgprfv`j ndd`ss fc sgnee

dfgpnlh`s tf lnld`, nlj `ccfrts tf ghthmnt` `lvhrflg`ltne jngnm` nlj upmrnj` `l`rmy `cdh`ldy hl to` `dflfgy.

[rhvnt` dflsugpthfl mr`w by ? p`rd`lt hl 2;;8 nct`r xpnljhlm =.2 p`rd`lt n y`nr fl nv`rnm` jurhlm 2;;;-;?, to` ohmo`st rnt`

hl to` r`mhfl.4[rhvnt` dflsugpthfl dfltrhbut`j 4-: p`rd`ltnm` pfhlts tf r`ne MJ[ mrfwto fv`r to` enst j`dnj`, gfr` tonl nly

4 Zo`r` w`r` 2> dfultrh`s hl to` wfrej whto ohmo`r mrfwto rnt`s fc prhvnt` dflsugpthfl jurhlm to` 2;;;s, hldeujhlm crnmhe` stnt`s b`l`tthlm crfg r`dflstrudthfl, dfggfjhty-rhdo

`dflfgh`s gnhley hl Tub-Tnonrnl Ncrhdn, nlj s`v`rne dfultrh`s hl @nst`rl @urfp` nlj D`ltrne Nshn.

Chmur` :>. nlj cfr s`rvhd`s

(hl p`rd`lt fc MJ[, 2;;:-;?)

Tfurd`1 ]frej Bnli.

Chmur` :;. R`bnenldhlm by neefwhlm n enrm`r rfe` cfr prhvnt`

dflsugpthfl .

(hl p`rd`lt fc MJ[)


2;




27/96

fto`r dfultry hl to` r`mhfl nlj nee j`vèfp`j dfultrh`s, netofumo ht `xpnlj`j hl gfst y`nrs nt n pnd` sefw`r tonl r`ne MJ[

mrfwto. Dflsugpthfl hs sthee oèj bndi by to` gudo efw`r hldfg`s r`d`hv`j by rurne ofusòfejs fr rurne ghmrnlts wfrihlm hl

enrm` dhth`s but wofs` cngheh`s r`gnhl hl to`hr ofg` tfwls. R`cfrghlm to` ouifu, ns penll`j by to` mfv`rlg`lt, sofuej ehghtto` ul`qune tr`ntg`lt r`d`hv`j by jhcc`r`lt denss`s fc dhthz`ls, cndhehtnt` mr`nt`r `gpefyg`lt fppfrtulhth`s, neefw cfr b`tt`r

us` fc nmmefg`rnthfl `dflfgh`s, nlj oèp rnhs` ehvhlm stnljnrjs. Zo` `cc`dts fc r`cfrghlm o`netodnr`, `judnthfl nlj p`lshfls

whee dfltrhbut` tf to` sng` mfne.

Zo` s`rvhd` s`dtfr ofejs oum` pft`lthne cfr Dohln, but enms bòhlj dfultrh`s whto brfnjey shghenr hldfg` e`vès. Mrnjune r`judthfl

hl tnx nlj fto`r hld`lthv`s hl cnvfr fc `xpfrt-frh`lt`j gnlucndturhlm, neefwhlm gfr` jfg`sthd nlj cfr`hml dfgp`ththfl, nlj

hgprfvhlm ndd`ss tf lnld` cfr sgnee- nlj g`jhug- `lt`rprhs`s gnly fc to`g pft`lthneey hl to` s`rvhd` s`dtfr whee oèp

s`t to` s`rvhd` s`dtfr fl n rfbust `xpnlshfl pnto. @v`l hc Dohln cfeefws to` pnd` fc s`rvhd` s`dtfr j`vèfpg`lt hl Ifr`n to`

dfultry whto to` efw`st sonr` fc s`rvhd`s hl vneu`-njj`j ngflm to` F@DJ `dflfgh`s r`ne MJ[ dfuej jfube` fv`r to` l`xt

qunrt`r d`ltury, dfgpnr`j whto n sd`lnrhf wo`r` to` sonr` fc s`rvhd`s hs stnmlnlt.

Dohlns prhgnry `l`rmy dflsugpthfl rfs` by nbfut >; p`rd`lt n y`nr jurhlm 2;;;-2;;0, twhd` ns cnst ns jurhlm to` pr`vhfus

twf j`dnj`s, nlj hts `l`rmy hlt`lshty jfube`j jurhlm tont p`rhfj. Hc r`d`lt `l`rmy dflsugpthfl pntt`rls dflthlu` whtofut

donlm`, Dohlns `l`rmy dflsugpthfl whee surm` tf to` `quhvne`lt fc ?= p`rd`lt fc tfjnys wfrej dflsugpthfl by 2;4;.:Zo`

prfcfulj hgpehdnthfls fc sudo j`vèfpg`lts e`j to` nutofrhth`s tf s`t n tnrm`t fc r`judhlm hlt`lshty by 2; p`rd`lt by 2;>;.

]o`to`r tohs mfne whee b` g`t hl 2;>; whee b`dfg` de`nr l`xt y`nr, but to` nutofrhth`s onv` gfv`j cfrd`cueey tf bffst `l`rmy

`cdh`ldy nlj hgprfv` `lvhrflg`ltne sustnhlnbhehty. Nbfut n tohrj fc to` hlv`stg`lt-bns`j sthgueus pndinm` hl Dohln hs cfr

mr``l hlv`stg`lts, n sonr` tor`` thg`s ns enrm` ns hl to` P.T.0Zonlis tf to` hlv`stg`lt sthgueus, Dohln jfube`j y`t nmnhl

hl 2;;8 hts hlstnee`j whlj pfw`r dnpndhty, n pnd` tor`` thg`s ns cnst ns to` wfrej ns n wofe`. Dohln lfw nddfults cfr n tohrj

fc mefbne dnpndhty, nlj hs aust bòhlj to` P.T. Hlstneehlm l`w dnpndhty ons lft fley cndhehtnt`j ndd`ss tf de`nl`r `l`rmy, but hs

turlhlm Dohl`s` prfjud`rs hltf gnafr mefbne nlj r`mhflne `xpfrt`rs fc whlj pfw`r `quhpg`lt.3

CFR @NTZ NTHNT GHJJE@-HLDFG@ DFPLZRH@T, GFSHLM P[ ZO@ SNEP@ DONHL ]HEE R@GNHL N [RHFRHZX

Ht hs onrj tf fv`r`sthgnt` to` rfe` jylnghd gnlucndturhlm s`dtfrs onv` peny`j hl suppfrthlm `dflfghd mrfwto hl to` r`mhfls

ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s. Cfr j`dnj`s, to` r`mhfl ons b``l to` prhldhpne j`sthlnthfl fc enrm` guethlnthflnes tont hlv`st`j hl efw

vneu`-njj`j nss`gbey prfjudthfl cndhehth`s, ehlihlm to`g hl r`mhflne nlj mefbne prfjudthfl l`twfris (Bfx >). Ns prfjudthvhty

surm`j, sf jhj wnm`s nlj ehvhlm stnljnrjs. But to` r`mhfls ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s nr` ljhlm tont l`w `ccfrts nr` l``j`j tf

mhv` dflfghd j`vèfpg`lt n cr`so hgp`tus. Nlj whto to` g`rm`ld` fc Dohln, nlj fc ent` Hljhn, ns cnvfr`j hlv`stg`lt efdnthfls,

rèhnld` fl ohmo vfeug`, efw vneu`-njj`j prfjudthfl tont pnys j`d`lt wnm`s hs ulj`r tor`nt.

L`w pfehdh`s nr` r`quhr`j tf `sdnp` crfg to` drfwj`j ghjje` fc hljustrhne j`vèfpg`lt nlj br`ni hltf ilfwe`jm`- nlj sihee-

hlt`lshv` s`dtfrs. Rhshlm tf to` donee`lm` whee r`quhr` tont to` r`mhfls ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s gfv` up to` vneu` donhl torfumo

hldr`ns`j sfpohsthdnthfl fc prfjudthfl. Zf ndoh`v` tohs, dfultrh`s gust hlv`st gfr` nlj whto mr`nt`r `cdh`ldy hl poyshdne nlj

ougnl dnphtne, cfst`r substnlthneey gfr` hllfvnthv` ndthvhty, nlj ldfurnm` ltr`pr`lùrsohp nlj rhsi tnihlm. Zo` spnthne jhg`lshfl

: T`` to` ]frej BnlisGhjt`rg @vneunthfl fc Dohlns >>to Chv`-y`nr [enl, Donpt`r :,www.wfrejbnli.frm.

0 Ns r`c`rr`j hl n sp``do by Ndohg Tt`hl`r, o`nj fc to` PL @lvhrflg`lt [rfmrng, ottp1//www.ul`p.frm/Jfdug`lts.Guethehlmune/J`cnuet.nsp6Jfdug`ltHJ7:82&Nrthde`HJ7320?&e7`l.

3 T`` to` Mefbne @l`rmy Dfuldhe, ottp1//www.mw`d.l`t. Dohlns dnpndhty nt to` `lj fc 2;;8 wns ns enrm` ns tont hl M`rgnly nlj twf-tohrjs fc to` e`vè hl to` P.T.




28/96

fc gfvhlm crfg ghjje`-hldfg` tf ohmo-hldfg` stntus sofuej nesf lft b` l`me`dt`j. Hllfvnthfl hs ohmoey j`p`lj`lt fl ohmo`r

j`lshty fc prfjudthfl, r`s`nrdo nlj j`vèfpg`lt. Nlj gfr` gfbhe` enbfr, dnphtne nlj lnld` whee b` drhthdne tf neefw prfjudthfl

strudtur`s tf sohct nwny crfg suls`t hljustrh`s nlj tfwnrj ohmo hldfg` ènsthdhty, sihee- nlj ilfwe`jm`-hlt`lshv` s`dtfrs.

Hl gfst dfultrh`s hl to` r`mhfl, x`j hlv`stg`lt ns n sonr` fc MJ[ fv`r to` enst j`dnj` r`gnhl`j wèe-bèfw to` e`vès ndoh`v`j

b`cfr` to` >88=-8? Nshnl lnldhne drhshs. Zo` `xd`pthfls nr` Dohln nlj Sh`tlng, wo`r` hlv`stg`lt rènthv` tf MJ[ dehgb`j

rnphjey nlj `xd``j`j e`vès ndoh`v`j `nreh`r (Chmur` :2 nlj Chmur` :4). Dohln nlj Sh`tlng npnrt, ofw`v`r, e`vès fc x`j

hlv`stg`lt hl to` r`mhfl nr` gnri`jey sgnee`r tonl to` e`vès ndoh`v`j hl Anpnl9 Ifr`n9 Znhwnl, Dohln9 nlj Thlmnpfr` jurhlm

to`hr tni`fcc, `v`l wo`l njausthlm cfr hldfg`s p`r dnphtn (Chmur` ::). Hlv`stg`lt e`vès hl [ohehpphl`s nlj Gnenyshn, gfr`fv`r,

nr` `v`l bèfw tofs` hl tfjnys ohmo-hldfg` Anpnl.

Zo` sofrtcnee fc x`j hlv`stg`lt rènthv` tf to` p`rhfj b`cfr`

>88=-8? hs ju` gnhley tf n sonrp jrfp hl r`shj`lthne nlj

dfgg`rdhne r`ne `stnt`. Zo`r` nr` njjhthflne cndtfrs ns wèe. Hl

Hljfl`shn, l`rmy-rènt`j hlv`stg`lt by stnt`-fwl`j dfgpnlh`s

soruli crfg : p`rd`lt fc MJ[ hl >88= tf nbfut p`rd`lt hl

2;;3. Zo` j`dehl` r`fl`dt`j sdne dflsfehjnthfl nlj ehght`j sdne

spnd` by to` mfv`rlg`lt tf prfvhj` lnldhlm, dfupe`j whto to`

ehght`j dnpndhty fc to`

lnldhne s`dtfr tf prfvhj` eflm-t`rglnldhlm nt dfgp`ththv` rnt`s (Chmur` :0). Chsdne dflsfehjnthfl

nlj n gudo gfr` rhmfrfus sdne crng`wfri hl Zonhenlj ons nesf

b``l n cndtfr dflstrnhlhlm pubehd hlv`stg`lt hl hlcrnstrudtur`.

Efw`r jfg`sthd snvhlm nlj efw`r cfr`hml hlv`stg`lt nr` lft to`

r`nsfls bòhlj r`jud`j x`j hlv`stg`lt hl gfst fc @nst Nshn

nct`r >88=-8?. Hl negfst nee dfultrh`s, jfg`sthd snvhlm rnt`s

onv` `hto`r rhs`l fr r`gnhl`j brfnjey uldonlm`j fv`r to` enst

Chmur` :4. but hl sfg`, to`r` hs n gnri`j hldr`ns` hl to` 2;;;s

(Hlv`stg`lt ns p`rd`lt fc MJ[, nv`rnm`)


Chmur` :2. Hl gfst dfultrh`s, hlv`stg`lt ons r`gnhl`j bèfw

e`vès ndoh`v`j prhfr tf >88=-8?

(Hlv`stg`lt ns p`rd`lt fc MJ[, nv`rnm`)


Chmur` ::. Hlv`stg`lt e`vès hl gfst dfultrh`s hl to` r`mhfl nr`

efw`r tonl hl Anpnl nlj to` LH@s hl to` pnst nt shghenr hldfg`

e`vès

(hl p`rd`lt fc MJ[)


22




29/96

s`v`rne j`dnj`s (Chmur` :3). Nlj, hlj``j, hl nee to`s` dfultrh`s jfg`sthd snvhlm xd``js jfg`sthd hlv`stg`lt r`suethlm hl xt`rlne

durr`lt nddfult surpeus`s. Nl `xtr`g` `xngpe` hs Gnenyshn, wo`r` to` durr`lt nddfult surpeus ngfult`j tf >= p`rd`lt fc MJ[

hl 2;;? nlj 2;;8. Hlflfws fc cfr`hml jhr`dt hlv`stg`lt, g`nlwohe`, hldr`ns`j fv`r to` enst j`dnj` rènthv` tf to` y`nrs b`cfr`

>88=-8? (Chmur` :=).

Dfgpnr`j tf 2; y`nrs nmf, hlv`stfrs nr` lfw spfhe`j cfr dofhd`9 Dohln nlj Hljhn onv` b`dfg` cnvfr`j j`sthlnthfls. Zo` surm` hl

gnlucndturhlm dnpndhty hl Dohln ju` tf to` sdne sthgueus lndt`j nct`r to` >88=-8? drhshs nlj to` rnphj hlt`mrnthfl fc to` dfultry

hltf mefbne prfjudthfl l`twfris, cndhehtnt`j by pr`pnrnthfls nlj uethgnt` ndd`sshfl tf ]ZF hl 2;;>, nr` ehièy tf onv` r`strnhl`j

hlv`stfrs crfg `xpnljhlm ns nmmr`sshvèy ns prhfr tf >88=-8? hl dfultrh`s hl j`vèfphlm @nst Nshn tont dfgp`t` fl efw dfsts

whto Dohln. Gfr`fv`r, wohe` Hlv`stg`lt Dehgnt` Nss`ssg`lts dfljudt`j by to` ]frej Bnli sofw ehtte` donlm` hl to` hlv`stg`lt

dehgnt` jurhlm to` 2;;;s (ns hl, cfr `xngpe`, Gnenyshn), ht hs ehièy tont to` rfe` fc Dohln ons e`j hlv`stfrs tf b` gfr` dfld`rl`j

nbfut dflstrnhlts to`y w`r` e`ss wfrrh`j nbfut pr`vhfusey. Cfr `xngpe`, nlth-dfgp`ththv` prndthd`s, sofrtnm` fc sihees nlj endi fc

bushl`ss suppfrt s`rvhd`s w`r` ohmoehmot`j ns to` gfst hgpfrtnlt dflstrnhlts tf mrfwto hl Gnenyshns 2;;= Hlv`stg`lt Dehgnt`

Nss`ssg`lt.=Hgprfvhlm to` bushl`ss `lvhrflg`lt nlj njjr`sshlm sihee sofrtnm`s, ns n r`suet, hs nl hgpfrtnlt pnrt fc to` nm`ljn

fc ghjje` hldfg` dfultrh`s hl to` r`mhfl.

= T`` Gnenyshn @dflfghd Gflhtfr, Lfv`gb`r 2;;8, ]frej Bnli.

Chmur` :0. Hlcrnstrudtur` hlv`stg`lt hl Hljfl`shn ons cnee`l ns stnt`-fwl`j `lt`rprhs`s dut `l`rmy hlv`stg`lt

(hl p`rd`lt fc MJ[)

Tfurd`1 Hljfl`shn Hlcrnstrudtur` Chlnld` Cndhehty (]frej Bnli, 2;;8).Lft`1TF@7stnt`-fwl`j lt`rprhs`s.

Chmur` :=.Nlj mrfss hlflfws fc CJH onv` rhs`l hl gfst dfultrh`s

tohs j`dnj` rènthv` tf to` pr`vhfus

(hl p`rd`lt fc MJ[)


Chmur` :3. Tnvhlm rnt`s onv` `hto`r dehgb`j fr r`gnhl`j brfnjey

uldonlm`j

(hl p`rd`lt fc MJ[)





30/96

Gfvhlm up to` vneu` donhl whee r`quhr` b`tt`r `judnthfl nlj sihees. Zo` j`vèfpg`lt fc sihees hlvfev`s wèe-culdthflhlm nlj

`cdh`lt `judnthfl syst`gs nt nee e`vès, dfgbhl`j whto enbfr pfehdh`s nlj ndthv` `gpefy`r pnrthdhpnthfl hl s`tthlm `judnthfl

stnljnrjs nlj durrhduen.

Ndd`ss tf prhgnry judnthfl hs lfw enrmèy ulhv`rsne ndrfss @nst Nshns ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s, nlj gnly onv` l`nrey ulhv`rsne

s`dfljnry `judnthfl. But ohmo `lrfeeg`lts jf lft munrnlt`` mffj futdfg`s. Netofumo to`r` hs substnlthne jhv`rm`ld` ndrfss to`

r`mhfl, gfst ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s enm bòhlj to` hlt`rlnthflne nv`rnm` hl bnshd sihees, hldeujhlm r`njhlm nlj gnto`gnthds

(Chmur` :?). Efw`r futdfg`s nt to` s`dfljnry e`vè, hl turl, r`strhdt to` pffe fc stuj`lts cfr ulhv`rshth`s nlj fto`r t`rthnry

hlsthtuthfls. Nlj ohmo dfsts nr` n j`t`rr`lt ns wèe, e`nvhlm t`rthnry `lrfeeg`lt hl @nst Nshn wèe bèfw to` F@DJ nv`rnm`

(Chmur` :8).

Ht hs onrjey n surprhs`, to`l, tont hljhdntfrs fc hllfvnthfl enm bòhlj tofs` fc njvnld`j dfultrh`s. Zonhenlj nlj Gnenyshn, cfr

`xngpe`, substnlthneey trnhe to` LH@s hl bfto to` hlputs cfr hllfvnthfl ndthvhty hldeujhlm lugb`r fc r`s`nrdo`rs nlj futenys fl

r`s`nrdo nlj j`vèfpg`lt (R&J) nlj futdfg`s sudo ns to` lugb`r fc pnt`lts (Znbe` 0). Curto`r, wohe` to` P.T., Anpnl nlj to`

LH@s hllfvnt` gfr` tonl dfultrh`s whto shghenr e`v es fc hldfg` p`r dnphtn, @nst Nshns ghjje`-hldfg` `dflfgh`s hllfvnt` gudo

e`ss rènthv` tf p``rs whto shghenr hldfg` (Chmur` 0; nlj Chmur` 0>).

Chmur` :?. @judnthfl futdfg`s hl j`vèfphlm @nst Nshn enm to`

LH@s nlj njvnld`j `dflfgh`s

(?to Mrnj` ZHGTT sdfr`s cfr gnto`gnthds)

Tfurd`1 Hlt`rlnthflne Gnto`gnthds nlj Tdh`ld` Ttujy (ZHGTT).

Chmur` :8.Ndd`ss tf t`rthnry `judnthfl hl j`vèfphlm @nst Nshn

enms to` F@DJ

(t`rthnry mrfss `lrfeg`lt rnt`, hl p`rd`lt)

Tfurd`s1 @jTtnts (2;;8) nlj PHT (2;;8).

Chmur` 0;.Zo` P.T., Anpnl nlj to` LH@s hllfvnt` gfr` tonl

dfultrh`s whto shghenr hldfg`s

([nt`lts p`r >;;,;;; pfpuenthfl)

Tfurd`s1 P.T. Bur`nu fc [nt`lts nlj ]frej Bnli stncc sthgnt`s.

Chmur` 0>. wohe` to` ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s hl @nst Nshn

hllfvnt` e`ss fr ns gudo ns dfultrh`s whto shghenr hldfg`s */

([nt`lts p`r >;;,;;; pfpuenthfl)

Tfurd`s1 P.T. Bur`nu fc [nt`lts nlj ]frej Bnli stncc sthgnt`s.*/ Zo` sdne` fc to` v`rthdne nxhs hs sgnee`r tonl hl to` pr`vhfus fl`.

2:




31/96

Bfest`rhlm to` qunehty fc `judnthfl nlj hllfvnthfl whee r`quhr`

dfld`rt`j `ccfrts by mfv`rlg`lts, ulhv`rshth`s, nlj to` prhvnt`

s`dtfr. Hgprfvhlm to` ndd`ss nlj to` qunehty fc s`dfljnry nljt`rthnry `judnthfl hs nl hgpfrtnlt st`p. B`tt`r sdofenrsohp

fppfrtulhth`s whee nesf oèp rnhs` qunehty. Mfv`rlg`lt r`s`nrdo

nlj j`vèfpg`lt hlsthtut`s sudo ns to` fl`s hl Ifr`n nlj

Zonhenlj, onv` nesf nttrndt`j quneh`j r`s`nrdo`rs, prfgft`j

hllfvnthfl nlj r`suet`j hl to` dr`nthfl fc sphl fcc fc t`dolfefmy

rgs. Nt to` vfdnthflne nlj nt to` t`rthnry e`vès fc `judnthfl,

to`r` hs l``j cfr gfr` j`gnlj-jrhv`l durrhduen jrnct`j whto

hljustry hlput, ns wèe ns cfr gfr` prndththfl`rs hl sdoffe stncc,

nlj gfr` nppr`lthd`sohp prfmrngs whto rgs.?

Tihees l``j tf b` dflstnltey upmrnj`j nct`r mrnjunthlm crfg sdoffe fr ulhv`rshty. Ehc`-eflm e`nrlhlm sofuej b` r`dfmlhz`j ns nl

hgpfrtnlt dfgpfl`lt fc `lonldhlm sihees hl n dflstnltey donlmhlm `lvhrflg`lt. @gpefy``s dnl b` fcc`r`j hl-rg trnhlhlm nlj

hld`lthv`s cfr hgprfvhlm wfri-rè`vnlt sihees futshj` to` rg. Tudo hld`lthv`s onv` b``l to` rue` ngflm Anpnl`s` rgs cfr

j`dnj`s.

Hl thg`s fc drhs`s, ht hs hgpfrtnlt lft tf e`t to` seugp hl `dflfghd ndthvhty j`strfy to` ougnl dnphtne buhet hl thg`s fc prfsp`rhty.

Zo` mefbne drhshs ons r`hlcfrd`j to` hgpfrtnld` cfr dfultrh`s tf onv` n dnpndhty tf oèp ngèhfrnt` to` hgpndt fc enrm` sofdis

fl wfri`rs nlj ehght to` jhshld`lthv` `cc`dts n prftrndt`j seugp fr endi fc wfri fppfrtulhth`s dnl onv` fl to` gfst vuel`rnbe`.

T`tthlm up sudo syst`gs jurhlm n drhshs hs donee`lmhlm nlj rnrèy ns cc`dthv` ns s`tthlm to`g up hl mffj thg`s. Zo` ghjje`-hldfg`

dfultrh`s fc @nst Nshn onv` b``l str`lmto`lhlm sfdhne nsshstnld` syst`gs shld` to` >88=-8? Nshnl lnldhne drhshs nlj st`pp`j up

to`hr `ccfrts jurhlm to` r`d`lt drhshs. Bfto [ohehpphl`s nlj Hljfl`shn uthehz`j dfljhthflne dnso trnlsc`r prfmrngs (DDZ) tf pffr

cngheh`s fl to` dfljhthfl to`y s`lj to`hr dohejr`l tf sdoffe nlj i``p to`g hggulhz`j. Nee ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s us`j to`hr

sdne sthgueus pndinm`s tf fcc`r fto`r typ`s fc suppfrt tf to` vuel`rnbe` nlj to` pffr, hldeujhlm torfumo dflsugpthfl subshjh`s,

subshjhz`j trnhlhlm cfr to` ul`gpefy`j fr to` efw-sihee`j, nlj fppfrtulhth`s cfr `gpefyg`lt hl pubehd wfris.

Gfvhlm up to` vneu` donhl whee nesf r`quhr` gfr` sgfftoey culdthflhlm enbfr, enlj nlj lnldhne gnri`ts. Hgprfv`j enbfr gnri`t

fl`xhbhehty nlj n bnenld` b`tw``l pnsshv` nlj ndthv` enbfr gnri`t pfehdh`s nr` hgpfrtnlt tf ndoh`v` tont mfne. Tfdhne hlsurnld`

sdo`g`s nesf l``j tf b` j`vèfp`j tf cndhehtnt` to` njaustg`lt fc wfri`rs tf n l`w afb hl to` `v`lt fc n afb efss, oèp r`jud`

to` sthmgn fc n bushl`ss cnheur` fl wfri`rs, nlj `gbfej`l hljhvhjunes tf gfv` crfg stnbe` fr stne` efw-pnyhlm afbs tf gfr`

prfjudthv`, ohmo`r pnyhlm fl`s. @ltr`pr`lùrhne sihees nlj ohmo`r tfe`rnld` cfr rhsi whee, to`r`cfr`, b` `ldfurnm`j. Nee hl nee,

ghjje`-hldfg` dfultrh`s l``j tf `gbrnd` to` l``j tf prft`dt wfri`rs nlj sihees, lft afbs fr pfshthfls, tf `ldfurnm` to` dr`nthvhty

nlj hllfvnthfl l``j`j tf trnlshthfl crfg ghjje`-hldfg` tf ohmo-hldfg` stntus.

@nst Nshns j`vèfphlm `dflfgh`s l``j tf r`vhtnehz` to`hr enlj gnri`ts hc to`y nr` tf r`np to` jhr`dt nlj hljhr`dt dfltrhbuthfls

fc `cdh`lt nlj `quhtnbe` enlj syst`gs tf mrfwto nlj pfv`rty r`judthfl. Hl pnrthduenr, to` r`mhfl ons tf `stnbehso gfr` `cdh`lt

enlj gnri`t strudtur`s, g`donlhsgs nlj hlsthtuthfls tont `lonld` nmrhdueturne hlt`lshdnthfl, urbnl j`vèfpg`lt, nlj lnldhne

j``p`lhlm.

? Hl to` PI, s`gh-prhvnt hlt`rg`jhnry r`s`nrdo hlsthtut`s (HRHs) onv` s`rv`j ns n ehlinm` b`tw `l ulhv`rshth`s nlj to` prhvnt` s`dtfr. [rfc`ssfrs m t ndd`ss tf culjs tf dnrryfut

hljustry-rè`vnlt r`s`nrdo, wohe` hljustrh`s oèp dfgg`rdhnehz` r`s`nrdo by to` ulhv`rshth`s.

Znbe` 0. J`vèfphlm @nst Nshn enms hl t`rgs fc R&J Futdfg`s

Dfultrh`sR&J p`rd`lt fc

MJ[ (2;;3)

PT[ZF [nt`ltsp`r gheehfl

p`fpe` (2;;?)

R`s`nrdo`rsp`r gheehfl

p`fpe` (2;;3)

Anpnl 4.:; 2?= 0,00?Ifr`n, R`p. fc 2.?4 >?; ..

Znhwnl, Dohln 2.4; 44? ..

Thlmnpfr` 2.4> 84 0,=43

Gnenyshn ;.3: 3.2 4=>

Zonhenlj ;.20 ;.3 ..

Tfurd`1Brnogbntt nlj Ou, Hj`ns nlj Hllfvnthfl hl @nst Nshn, cfrtodfghlm.




32/96

]èe culdthflhlm nmrhdueturne enlj gnri`ts whee suppfrt nmrhdueturne prfjudthvhty9 to`y dnl nesf b` strudtur`j tf oèp r`jud` rurne

pfv`rty. Nct`r jhsgnltehlm hts dfee`dthvhz`j cnrghlm syst`g, Sh`tlng hltrfjud`j n cfrgnehz`j gnri`t tont prhvnthz`j enlj us`

rhmots tont cnvfr`j to` pffr. Zo`r` w`r` dfld`rls tont to` hlhthnthv` ghmot e`nj tf hl`cdh`ldh`s, but ht ons hl cndt oèp`j hgprfv`

bfto `cdh`ldy nlj `quhty. Hl Dohln, stujh`s summ`st tont n mr`nt`r rèhnld` fl enlj e`nshlm rnto`r tonl fl enlj r`njaustg`lts dnl

hldr`ns` nmrhdueturne futput substnlthneey.

Thghenrey, urbnl enlj gnri`ts onv` tf dfp` whto to` ulcfejhlm `xpefshfl hl urbnlhznthfl nlj j`vèfpg`lt fc s`gh-urbnl nr`ns.

Zo` r`mhfls urbnl pfpuenthfl hs prfa`dt`j tf mrfw by nbfut 3; p`rd`lt tf ?;; gheehfl by 2;20, nlj defs` tf onec fc mrfwto gny

wèe fddur hl s`gh-urbnl nr`ns. O`ld`, mfv`rlg`lts l``j tf r`cfrg to`hr j`vèfpg`lt dfltrfe r`mhg`s hc donee`lm`s hl to` crhlm`

nr`ns nr` tf b` g`t. T`tte`g`lt g`donlhsgs l``j nesf b` r`muenrhz`j, nlj enlj gnri`t hgprfv`g`lts ehli`j defsèy whto s`rvhd`

upmrnjhlm hlt`rv`lthfls cfr to` urbnl pffr hc dfljhthfls hl hlcfrgne s`tte`g`lts tont prfehc`rnt` hl dfultrh`s hldeujhlm [ohehpphl`s

nr` tf b` substnlthneey hgprfv`j.

EF]-HLDFG@ DFPLZRH@T L@@J ZF BR@NI HLZF GNLPCNDZPRHLM

Gfvhlm crfg j`p`lj`ld` fl nmrhduetur`, ghlhlm nlj hlcfrgne s`rvhd`s tf gnlucndturhlm ofejs to` i`y tf eflm-t`rg mrfwto

cfr to` r`mhfls efw-hldfg` dfultrh`s. R`s`nrdo summ`sts tont nmmefg`rnthfl `dflfgh`s hs to` drudhne cndtfr hl j`t`rghlhlm to`

efdnthfl fc gnlucndturhlm cndhehth`s, cfeefw`j by efw trnlspfrt dfsts nlj do`np enbfr. 8Hljustrhne prfjudthfl hs eugpy, nlj rgs

b`mhl prfjudthfl hl efdnthfls defs` tf fto`r rgs. Zohs gny s``g tf ehght sdfp` cfr l`w dfultrh`s tf hljustrhnehz`. But donlm`s

hl to`s` `ljfwg`lts ngflm `xhsthlm dfultrh`s nlj to` `g`rm`ld` fc l`w ndthvhth`s, fr tnsis hltf wohdo prfjudthfl hs brfi`l,

`lnbe` l`w dfultrh`s tf afhl hl. Hl @nst Nshn, Dohlns br`ni hltf gnlucndturhlm hl to` >8?;s wns cfeefw`j by `xpefshv` mrfwtotont s``g`j tf gnly j`sthl`j tf `xdeuj` to` efw-hldfg` dfultrh`s fc to` r`mhfl crfg hljustrhne j`vèfpg`lt. But rhshlm enbfr

dfsts hl Dohln, hgprfvhlm r`mhflne trnlspfrt ehlis, nlj to` rnphj hldr`ns` hl to` vnrh`ty fc tnsis nwny crfg v`rthdne hlt`mrnthfl

ons fp`l`j to` pft`lthne cfr efw hldfg` dfultrh`s tf br`ni hltf gnlucndturhlm nlj b`dfg` pnrt fc r`mhflne nlj mefbne prfjudthfl

donhls.

8 Zo` jhsdusshfl hl tohs s`dthfl hs pnrtey bns`j fl1 PLHJF, 2;;8, Br`nihlm hl nlj Gfvhlm up1 L`w Hljustrhne Donee`lm`s cfr to` Bfttfg Bheehfl nlj to` Ghjje`-Hldfg` Dfultrh`s,

Hljustrhne J`vèfpg`lt R`pfrt 2;;8 nlj Hlj`rght Mhe, 2;;8, R`sonphlm @dflfghd M`fmrnpoy1 ]frej J`vèfpg`lt R`pfrt 2;;8, to` ]frej Bnli.

Chmur` 02.Sh`tlng, Enf [JR nlj Dngbfjhn onv` rènthvèy ohmo

sonr`s fc gnlucndturhlm hl MJ[

(hl p`rd`lt fc MJ[)


Chmur` 04.Zo` sonr` fc nmrhduetur` nlj ghlhlm hl MJ[ hs shznbe` hl

gfst efw-hldfg` dfultrh`s hl @nst Nshn

(hl p`rd`lt fc MJ[)

Tfurd`1 ]frej J`vèfpg`lt Hljhdntfrs.Lft`1IOG (Dngbfjhn), ENF (Enf [`fpe`s J`gfdrnthd), GXR (Gynlgnr), SLG (Sh`tlng),HJL (Hljfl`shn), GXT (Gnenyshn), [OE ([ohehpphl`s), ZON (Zonhenlj)

23




33/96

T`v`rne fc @nst Nshns efw-hldfg` dfultrh`s onv` ner`njy stnrt`j fl tohs pnto, hghtnthlm Dohlns rnphj nsd`lt. Ngflm dfultrh`s

whto shghenr hldfg` e`vès, Dngbfjhn, Enf [JR, nlj Sh`tlng onv` to` ohmo`st sonr` fc gnlucndturhlm vneu`-njj`j rènthv` tf

MJ[ (Chmur` 02 nlj Chmur` 04). Zohs futdfg` wns ndoh`v`j nct`r twf j`dnj`s fc mrfwto nt to` ohmo`st pnd` hl to` r`mhfl nct`rDohln, whto r`ne MJ[ p`r dnphtn negfst qunjrupehlm hl to` tor`` dfultrh`s. Hl Dngbfjhn, vneu`-njj`j hl hljustry negfst trhpe`j

fv`r to` enst twf j`dnj`s, nlj sf jhj to` lugb`r fc wfri`rs. Hljustrhne mrfwto hl Dngbfjhn, ns n r`suet, `xdèe`j hl dr`nthlm afbs,

prhgnrhey hl to` mnrg`lt s dtfr, but prfjudthvhty hldr`ns`s w`r` l mehmhbe`. Zo` e`vè fc prfjudthvhty hl mnrg`lts hs sthee shghenr tf

tont hl Enf [JR nlj Sh`tlng, but gudo bèfw Dohlns.>;

Zo` mefbne `dflfghd drhshs oht Dngbfjhn onrj, whto r`ne MJ[ dfltrndthlm 2 p`rd`lt hl 2;;8 to` fley dfltrndthfl ngflm to`

r`mhfls efw-hldfg` dfultrh`s fto`r tonl hl fv`ro`nt`j Gflmfehn. [rfsp`dts nr` cfr r`turl tf strflm mrfwto tohs y`nr nlj l`xt,

but gudo uld`rtnhlty r`gnhls fv`r to` g`jhug t`rg. Gnly Dngbfjhnls r`gnhl pffr nlj whto c`w nss`ts tont dfuej b` us`j tf

njj tf hlv`stg`lt. Bffsthlm hlv`stg`lt hl to` dfghlm j`dnj` crfg to` >?.0 p`rd`lt fc MJ[ fc to` enst j`dnj` whee, to`r`cfr`,

r`quhr` cfr`hml snvhlm. Zo` jhe`ggn Dngbfjhn cnd`s hs shghenr tf wont Sh`tlng j`net whto n j`dnj` nmf. Sh`tlngs j`dhshfl tf

fp`l to` dflfgy tf cfr`hml hlv`stg`lt nlj gbnri fl ngbhthfus strudturne r`cfrgs bffst`j hlflfws fc cfr`hml jhr`dt hlv`stg`lt

nlj oèp`j rnhs` x`j hlv`stg`lt tf 42 p`rd`lt fc MJ[ fl nv`rnm` fv`r to` enst j`dnj`.>>Fp`lhlm up nesf brfumot hts fwl rhsis.

N surm` hl cfr`hml hlv`stg`lt torfumo 2;;? e`j tf fv`ro`nthlm pr`ssur`s. But cfrd`cue mfv`rlg`lt ndthfl oèp`j tndie` to` jnlm`r

nlj dffe`j to` `dflfgy aust b`cfr` to` mefbne drhshs oht whto cuee cfrd`.

Enf [JR nlj Dngbfjhn dnl b`l`t crfg to`hr l`hmobfrs. B`hlm hl n rnphjey mrfwhlm l`hmobfroffj whee oèp, ns whee to` dflthlu`j

r`mhflne nlj mefbne jhv`rshdnthfl fc trnj` hl tnsis, nlj to` rnphjey rhshlm enbfr dfsts hl Dohln nlj fto`r pnrts fc to` wfrej.

Zous cnr, ofw`v`r, fley Sh`tlng ons b``l nbe` tf ehli tf prfjudthfl l`twfris, nlj fley tf n ehght`j `xt`lt. Zo` donee`lm` nlj

fppfrtulhty dflcrflthlm Enfs nlj Dngbfjhn whee b` tf upmrnj` poyshdne nlj ougnl dnphtne nlj gbrnd` r`mhflne hlt`mrnthfl. Zo`

j`vèfpg`lt fc r`mhflne nlj lnthflne hlcrnstrudtur` (lnld`j hl pnrt by to` Nshnl J`vèfpg`lt Bnli) tf hgprfv` dfll`dthvhty

nlj r`jud` trnlspfrtnthfl dfsts ndrfss Tfuto-@nst Nshn hs n drhthdne st`p hl tohs jhr`dthfl. Zohs whee lfw l``j tf b` dfgpe`g`lt`j

by sfct hlcrnstrudtur` lngèy, g`nsur`s tf cndhehtnt` trnj` sudo ns `cdh`lt trnlsht nrrnlm`g`lts, dfggfl bfrj`r r`muenthfls,

lnthflne shlme` whljfw cndhehth`s cfr hgpfrt`rs nlj `xpfrt`rs, nlj dustfgs gfj`rlhznthfl.

DFGGFJHZX @_[FRZ@RT L@@J TFPLJ CHTDNE [FEHDH@T CFR TPTZNHLNBE@ MRF]ZO

@nst Nshns dfggfjhty `xpfrt`rs Enf [JR, Gflmfehn, Zhgfr-E`st`, [npun L`w Muhl`n - cnd` to` dflthlu`j donee`lm` fc

onrl`sshlm lnturne r`sfurd` `ljfwg`lts cfr `dflfghd j`vèfpg`lt wohe` ehghthlm to` hgpndt fc r`sfurd`-hljud`j vfenthehty fl

to`hr jfg`sthd `dflfgy. Zo` donee`lm` hs heeustrnt`j by to` enrm` swhlms hl mefbne dfggfjhty prhd`s wohdo gny wèe dflthlu` hl

to` l`nr t`rg ns to` mefbne `dflfgy dflv`rm`s tf hts l`w `quhehbrhug (Chmur` 0:). Zo` enrm` nlj mrfwhlm j`p`lj`ld` fc to`s`

`dflfgh`s fl dfggfjhth`s cfr `xpfrts nlj mfv`rlg`lt r`v`lu`s nt e`nst hl to` g`jhug t`rg hs nesf n dnus` cfr dfld`rl(Chmur` 00).

[ruj`lt sdne pfehdy b`cfr` nlj jurhlm to` dfggfjhty bffg oèp`j [LM nlj Zhgfr-E`st` w`nto`r wèe to` `dflfghd drhshs. Hl

[LM, sdne pfehdy `v`l b`cfr` to` drhshs wns muhj`j by njo`r`ld` tf to` prhldhpe`s tont ulj`rphll`j to` G`jhug-Z`rg Chsdne

Ttrnt`my cfr 2;;?-2;>2, hldeujhlm ehghts fl to` sdne j`dht hl ehl` whto `sthgnt`s fc sustnhlnbe` g`jhug-t`rg sdne bnenld`s.

>; T``1 Dngbfjhn1 Tustnhlhlm Rnphj Mrfwto hl n Donee`lmhlm @lvhrflg`lt, 2;;8, to` ]frej Bnli.

>> Enf [JRs hlv`stg`lt rnt` hs nesf ohmo nt nbfut 4; p`rd`lt fv`r to` enst j`dnj`, but gudo fc tont r`fl`dts hlv`stg`lt hltf ghlhlm nlj `l`rmy-m`l`rnthlm dnpndhty, rnto`r tonl

gnlucndturhlm.




34/96

Zo` nutofrhth`s nesf snv`j whljcnee r`v`lu`s crfg lnturne r`sfurd`s hltf trust nddfults. (Nlj to` nutofrhth`s r`dfmlhz` to` l``j cfr

curto`r r`cfrgs fc ofw r`sfurd` r`v`lu`s nr` snv`j nlj wo`r` to`y nr` hlv`st`j.) Zhgfr-E`st` nesf g`rm`j rènthvèy ulsdnto`j

crfg to` drhshs, tonlis tf rue`s `stnbehso`j hl 2;;0 tf snv` nee p`trfeùg-rènt`j r`v`lu`s hl n [`trfeùg Culj hlv`st`j nbrfnj,

nlj tf ehght whtojrnwnes. ]htojrnwnes w`r` ehght`j tf to` `sthgnt`j sustnhlnbe` hldfg` (@TH) j`rhv`j crfg Culj bnenld`s nlj

prfa`dt`j flfws hltf to` Culj. Hl 2;;8, to` nutofrhth`s pruj`ltey hldr`ns`j whtojrnwnes tf nbfv` to` @TH tf oèp ghthmnt` to`

hgpndt fc to` drhshs. (Zo` lft`s fl [LM nlj Zhgfr-E`st` nt to` `lj fc tohs vfeug` jhsduss sfg` fc to`s` j`tnhes curto`r).

Gflmfehns `xp`rh`ld` whto to` dfggfjhty bffg nlj bust ons b``l jhcc`r`lt. Jurhlm to` bffg, to` mfv`rlg`lt snv`j fley n

pnrt fc to` whljcnee r`v`lu`s wohe` hldr`nshlm ultnrm`t`j sfdhne `xp`ljhtur`s, wnm`s nlj snenrh`s, nlj neefwhlm to` prfehc`rnthfl

fc pffrey-sdr``l`j hlv`stg`lt prfa`dts `xp`dt`j tf b` culj`j whto r`sfurd` r`v`lu`s hl to` cutur`. ]o`l to` bffg turl`j hltf

bust, to` gfj`stsdne surpeus quhdiey turl`j hltf n enrm` j`dht tont dfuej lft b` lnld`j by to` sgnee snvhlms. Nt to` sng` thg`,

to` `xt`rlne durr`lt nddfult nesf swulm hltf n enrm` j`dht, nlj to` lnldhne s`dtfr, wohdo onj b``l fv`ro`nthlm jurhlm to` bffg

p`rhfj, rnl hltf s`rhfus prfbe`gs, whto fl` fc to` gnafr bnlis put ulj`r dfls`rvntfrsohp

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World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2010, Volume 1

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