World competition for World competition for animal productionanimal production
IP ErasmusJune 25th 2010
Today’s objective?Today’s objective?«food for thought » «food for thought »
Set the scene and update on worldwide Set the scene and update on worldwide market facts and dynamicsmarket facts and dynamics– Supplying/ demandSupplying/ demand– Industry: structure and strategiesIndustry: structure and strategies
Focus on Poultry… as an illustrationFocus on Poultry… as an illustration– ....– + Ability of main producing areas to fullfill + Ability of main producing areas to fullfill
expectations ( consumers…)expectations ( consumers…)
Meat production led by Asia Meat production led by Asia
1316
12,5
14154,5
89
22
1,32
2,2
121754
9135,6
5772
100
Mt -2009- USDA
36%
17%18%
13%
13%
Consumption led by ChinaConsumption led by China
152111
10113
81221
133051
2009-mt-FAO-USDA
46%20%23%
12%
12%
Highest consumption growth Highest consumption growth between 2010 and 2015 in Latin between 2010 and 2015 in Latin
america and Asiaamerica and Asia
2%8%5%
7%25%16%
-2%3%4%
9%13%8%
FAO
Consumption increase: where ?Consumption increase: where ?
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1985 1995 2005 2008 2015 2025
mT
Beef Pork Sheep Poultry
+34%+29%
+25%
+23%
0 5 10 15 20
China
USA
Brasil
EU
India
Mexico
Japan
Russia
mt
Poultry and Pork Asia for the major part
Fueled by population growth, economic growth … and urbanisation
FAO
Most of the trade growth will be in red Most of the trade growth will be in red meat…meat…
rather than poultry & pigmeat …rather than poultry & pigmeat …
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2000 2005 2010 2015
'000
t cw
e
SheepmeatBeefPorkPoultry
US
MENA
RU
CH
MENA
CH
RU
MENA
CH
US
US
RU
CH
FAO
Brazil’s ambitions Brazil’s ambitions Forecasts – Share of WW export in % by specieForecasts – Share of WW export in % by specie
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1000
T -E
xpor
t
BeefPorkPoultry
37%
25%
41%
12%
48%
45%
30%
14%
FAO – Brazil Ministry of agriculture
• US firms …traditionally biggest US firms …traditionally biggest operators but brazilian meat operators but brazilian meat processors expanding quickly processors expanding quickly globallyglobally
Brazilian players emergence in Top 3Brazilian players emergence in Top 3
0123456789
10111213
JBS Pilg
rims B
ertin
Tyson
Cargill
Smithfie
ldVion
Danish
crown
BRF Braz
il
Marfrig
/ MoyP
ark
People'
s food
Yuran
ShineW
ayDou
x
Perdue
Hormel
JBS …through acquisitionsJBS …through acquisitions
2010Key world positions
www.JBS.com.br
Brazil’s JBS……in 2010 Brazil’s JBS……in 2010
www.JBS.com.br
JBS Pilgrims Bertin Tyson Cargill SmithfieldVion Danish crown BRF Brazil Marfrig/ MoyParkPeople's food Yuran ShineWay DouxPerdue Hormel
Poultry
Top 3: 10%
JBSTysonBRF
Beef
Top 3 : 23%
JBSTysonCargill
Pork
Top 3: 7%
SmithfieldTyson
Vion ea DC
Concentration going on.. Concentration going on..
Poultry highlightsPoultry highlights
Worldwide production, consumption, trade
Cost price advantage
No restrictions to consumption
Processing ability ( & added value)
F.S.
(Relatively low) requirements for land, water, feed ingredients
World average growth:95-05: +4.1% p.a.05-10: +2.9% p.a.10-15: +2.5% p.a.
China and Brazil challenging China and Brazil challenging « traditional » producers« traditional » producers
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
('000
t cw
e)
THARGJPRUSIND MENAMXOther S.AMBREUCNUS
www.JBS.com.br
Producing areasProducing areasDifferent needs… and strategiesDifferent needs… and strategies
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Prod 2009 – X 1000t
Prod increase 2005-2010 in %
Export/ Prod Volume - %
US
BRCH
EU
TH
IND
Mx
JP
IRSelf
sufficiency
Trade
ARG
Value Added
Net exportersNet exportersPoultryPoultry
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
US EUBraz
il
China
Argenti
na
Mexico
Russia
India
Iran
Japa
n
Thaila
ndOthe
r
X100
0T
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Production Consumption Self suff
Exportations of poultry meatExportations of poultry meatUSDA ForecastsUSDA Forecasts
Real devaluation
EU Salted meat
Free from Influenza
1st WW Exp
MS 41%
Brazil and Brazil and USUS in top 3 in top 3
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
JBS/ P
ilgrim
's
Tyson fd
s
BRF Brazil J
BS
Marfrig
/Moy
parkCarg
illDoux
Perdu
e
Vion/ Gram
pian
CP Foods
Bachocc
o
westfle
isch
vero
nesi
Terrena
/unicopa
LDC
PHW G
ruppe
Glon
HKScan
Smithfie
ld DUC
Plukon
Sada
Amador
i
2 sister
s
B Math
hews
X 10
00 t
Sce: from Rabobank 2009, updates
Consolidation driven by Brazil/ US Bargaining power – Risk management
EU still to consolidate/ retructure/ use EU opportunities
2 industry segments different competitive areas « Global trade/ local trade « « Scale or niche »
Attn! Brazil making their way in EU: added value
Europe still national and fragmentedEurope still national and fragmented
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Brazil US
France UK
German
yIta
lySpa
in NL
Hungary
Poland
A fragmented. Nation based industry
Top 10 – 30%
Where and how to produce …..and sell?
Basic criteria ?– Population growth & demographics– Economic prosperity– Relative cost/price advantage– Consumer expectations
Food Safety ( traceability, compliance to rules..)Environmental concernsAnimal welfareConsumer friendly products
USUS EU27EU27 BRAZILBRAZIL CHINACHINA THAILANDTHAILAND
Production % WWGrowth rate 05/10X/P
222
18
1268
151522222929
1717232322
2232323434
Domestic marketEvolution 05/10Drivers
47kg/c – 13,4FlatLarge domestic
23,3- kg/c -8,7+7%
41,4 kg/ c- 41,4 kg/ c- 8,18,1+ 22% + 22%
NGP growthNGP growthUrban.: 86%Urban.: 86%
13,9kg/c-13,9kg/c-12,612,6+25%+25%
Urban. 50%Urban. 50%FSFS
NGP growthNGP growth
14kg/c (34u)- 14kg/c (34u)- 1,51,5++
Retail/ FSRetail/ FSUrban,:34%Urban,:34%
Industry structure 6 states EContracts 90%Integration-10%V integ. 99%Top 3: 50% prod
SizeFragmentation15 g: 30%Lack of consolidationLocal based
South South 75% prod near 75% prod near
RMRM95% under cont.95% under cont.Vertical integrat.Vertical integrat.
Top 8 52%Top 8 52%
75% production- 75% production- Units > Units >
2000birds2000birdsUs modelUs model
Top 50: 63%Top 50: 63%Top 10:10%Top 10:10%
70% production 70% production by 1% of by 1% of producers producers ( integrated )( integrated )
Competitivity Inland feed ing.Economy of scaleWagesEthanol
Feed costsRM net importerEnergy costsHigh wages
Inland feed ingInland feed ingLow investments Low investments
costscostsLow wagesLow wages
Efficient processEfficient process
Soya imports Soya imports undr gvt controlundr gvt control
Complictd Complictd access to landaccess to land
Barrier- prices of Barrier- prices of imported soyaimported soyaGenetics/ vet.Genetics/ vet.Zoot param.Zoot param.Energy – low Energy – low wages & prod cts wages & prod cts
Composition of the production cost Composition of the production cost for the primary farm by countryfor the primary farm by country
LEI study 2009 based on 2007 costs
Production costs after slaughter €c/ kg carcass weight NL 1,38 Thailand 1,11 US 1,01 Brazil 0,9
USUS EU27EU27 BRAZILBRAZIL CHINACHINA THAILANDTHAILANDFood safetyTraceability
Sanitary risks
++
AI 2004 – risk due to scale
IFS BRC…+++
+++
Certifications for Certifications for some playerssome playersAI free areaAI free area
But raise But raise standards standards
Efficiency of Efficiency of control?control?
Risk- Means and Risk- Means and credibility of credibility of
systemsystem……
Hpai regular Hpai regular since 2004 ( no since 2004 ( no comm broiler ?) – comm broiler ?) – Coexist 2 waysCoexist 2 waysCompartimentalizCompartimentalizationationCertfication on Certfication on the way -CPFthe way -CPF
Compliance with EU regulation
+++Cost
Fight program Fight program agst AnBio agst AnBio residuesresidues
Residue and Residue and additive additive
managementmanagement
Environment Rd, reg, CRwastes
Cost Negative imageNegative imageEfficiency of Efficiency of
control?control?
Animal welfare +++ ++++Cost
++Raise standards
Bad ?
GMO Cost/ access Traceability?
Hal Al/ Kosher + + ? ? +
Added value products
+++ ++ (+) +Via acq. free range,organic
- +
EU: regulation and competiveness« Expected » increase in broiler cost between 2004-2012
LEI P Van Horne
€cent per kg of LW
Salmonella
Bird density
Ammonia
Growth prom
NL G UK FR PL
Horizontal & verticalconsolidation of slaughter groups Driven by US BR players
Developped marketsLow consumption growthSegmentation …
"Zero risk“- Law
Emerging markets
Long term demand potential
MarketingSegmentation
NPD
SafetyPrice Pressure
Cost reduction
Risk management
Rising feed, labour, fuel
Political & pressures: CAP Reform…
Rising regulatory costs
Higher volatility in feed ingredients
WTO-Rising imports
Processors
Ethanol/ finance as competitors
Retailer concentration & internationalisation
Retail driven supplychain
rationalisation
Meat in Hard Discount& Retail Branding
Food service
Thanks for your attentionThanks for your attention