World Cup 2010 South Africa
Booklet – World Championship Analysis of participating teams Overview of the stadiums Model calculations Who is going to be World Champion?
© Saphira by Clipdealer
June 2010
2 June 2010
Content
World Cup 2010 South Africa
Introduction 3
Stadiums 4
Qualification 6
Participants
Group A: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France 8
Group B: Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea, Greece 10
Group C: England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia 12
Group D: Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana 14
Group E: Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon 16
Group F: Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slowakia 18
Group G: Brazil, North Korea, Ivory Coast, Portugal 20
Group H: Spain, Switzerland, Honduras, Chile 22
Overview of participants 24
Quotes 25
Match schedule 26
World Cup Quiz 28
Model calculation 30
Model results 32
Our Team 36
3June 2010
xx
The object of desire
Source: Udo Nowak/PIXELIO
At last! The time has come! While some of us are eagerly awaiting the big event, gluing stickers into our panini collection albums with shaking hands, pl-anning our holidays in line with the game schedules and ensuring a sufficient beer supply, others are se-riously questioning what all the fuss is about - grown men chasing a pigs bladder around a field. With this publication we hope to communicate our childlike ex-citement to appease those unfortunate few and to in-crease the level of anticipation for the true believers.
This time the show has moved to Africa for the first time ever. To be more precise it has moved to South Africa, which geographically lies in the south of Af-rica. Variability in altitude between the playing are-nas and the fact that the tournament will be held in the winter in the southern hemisphere are just a few details that have to be borne in mind. We want to give an overview of the stadiums with all the required valuable information that could make a difference. Next we analyze the teams, their paths during qua-lification and add some subjective comments of how we judge their strengths and weaknesses. Stunningly intelligent football quotes and a quiz for expert en-thusiasts rounds off the publication. As the absolute highlight we present a highly scientific analytical model of the tournament to identify who could end up with the grand prize and, more importantly, to calculate the optimal return flight dates for individual teams. As readers of our last European Champion-ship 2008 project may recall, we had some partial success with Spain reaching the finals exactly as pro-jected. Spurred by this result we have adjusted and improved our model and aim to surpass the previous result. But more on that inside...
On this note we hope that our readers will enjoy this document and, of course, the World Championship 2010. May the best team win.
Your Raiffeisen RESEARCH Team
World Cup 2010 South Africa
The player's device
Source: Kunstzirkus, Stephanie Hofschlaeger/PIXELIO
Destination: Johannesburg
Source: Bernard Shane Diay
Introduction
4 June 2010
Stadiums
Polokwane,Peter-Mokaba-stadiumcapacity: 45,000sea level: 1230min June: max. temp.: 20°Cmin. temp.: 5°Cø rainy days: 1
Nelspruit,Mbombela stadiumcapacity: 43,500sea level: 671min June: max. temp.: 23°Cmin. temp.: 6°Cø rainy days: 2
Durban,Moses-Mabhida-stadiumcapacity: 70,000sea level: 15min June: max. temp.: 23°Cmin. temp.: 11°Cø rainy days: 5
N A M I B I A
Johannes-burg
Rustenburg
Polokwane
Nelspruit
Pretoria
Port Elizabeth
BloemfonteinDurban
250 km
Cape Town
B O T S WA N A
S I M B A B W E
MO
SA
MB
IK
S WA S I -L A N D
L E S O T H O
Cape Town, Green-Point-stadiumcapacity: 69,000sea level: 42min June: max. temp.: 18°Cmin. temp.: 7°Cø rainy days: 13
Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth,Nelson-Mandela-Bay-stadiumcapacity: 46,000sea level: 50min June: max. Temp.: 20°Cmin. Temp.: 9°Cø rainy days: 8
Mangaung/Bloemfontein,Free-State-stadiumcapacity: 45,000sea level: 1351min June: max. Temp.: 17°Cmin. Temp.: -2°Cø rainy days: 3
RustenburgRoyal-Bafokeng-stadiumcapacity: 44,500sea level: 1153min June: max. Temp.: 19°Cmin. Temp.: 2°Cø rainy days: 1
Johannesburg, Soccer Citycapacity: 94,700sea level: 1704mEllis-Park-stadiumCapacity: 62.500sea level:1753min June: max. Temp.: 17°Cmin. Temp.: 4°Cø rainy days: 1
Tshwane/PretoriaLoftus Versfeld Stadiumcapacity: 51,700sea level: 1351min June: max. Temp.: 20°Cmin. temp.: 5°Cø rainy days: 1
5June 2010
Winner last 16 1 - winner last 16 2Final: 11 July 2010, 20:30: Winner semi-final 1 - Winner semi-final 2
Johannesburg, Ellis-Park-stadiumGroup plays:Group B - 12 June 2010, 16:00: Argentina - NigeriaGroup G - 15 June 2010, 20:30: Brazil - North KoreaGroup C - 18 June 2010, 16:00: Slovenia - USAGroup H - 21 June 2010, 20:30: Spain - HondurasGroup F - 24 June 2010, 16:00: Slovakia - ItalyLast 16: 28 June 2010, 20:30: 1st group G - 2nd group HQuarter final: 3 July 2010, 20:30: Winner last 16 7- winner last 16 8
Tshwane/Pretoria, Loftus-Versfeld-stadiumGroup plays:Group D - 13 June 2010, 16:00: Serbia - Ghana Group A - 16 June 2010, 20:30: South Africa - UruguayGroup E - 19 June 2010, 20:30: Cameroon - DenmarkGroup C - 23 June 2010, 16:00: USA - AlgeriaGroup H - 25 June 2010, 20:30: Chile - SpainLast 16: 29 June 2010, 16:00: 1st group F – 2nd group E
Polokwane, Peter-Mokaba-stadiumGroup plays: Group C - 13 June 2010, 13:30: Algeria - Slovenia Group A - 17 June 2010, 20:30: France - MexicoGroup B - 22 June 2010, 20:30: Greece - ArgentinaGroup F - 24 June 2010, 16:00: Paraguay - New Zealand
Nelspruit, Mbombela stadiumGroup plays:Group H - 16 June 2010, 13:30: Honduras - ChileGroup F - 20 June 2010, 16:00: Italy - New ZealandGroup D - 23 June 2010, 20:30: Australia - SerbiaGroup C - 25 June 2010, 16:00: North Korea - Ivory coast
Durban, Moses-Mabhida-stadiumGroup plays: Group D - 13 June 2010, 20:30: Germany - AustraliaGroup H - 16 June 2010, 16:00: Spain - SwitzerlandGroup E - 19 June 2010, 13:30: Netherlands - JapanGroup B - 22 June 2010, 20:30: Nigeria - South KoreaGroup G - 25 June 2010, 16:00: Brazil - PortugalLast 16: 28 June 2010, 16:00: 1st group E - 2nd group FSemi-final: 7 July 2010, 20:30: Winner quarter final 3 - winner quarter final 4
Stadiums
Cape Town, Green-Point-stadiumGroup plays:Group A - 11 June 2010, 20:30: Uruguay - FranceGroup F - 14 June 2010, 20:30: Italy - ParaguayGroup C - 18 June 2010, 20:30: England - AlgeriaGroup G - 21 June 2010, 13:30: Portugal - North KoreaGroup E - 24 June 2010, 20:30: Cameroon - Netherlands Last 16: 29 June 2010, 20:30: 1st Group H - 2nd Group GQuarter final: 3 July 2010, 16:00: Winner last 16 3 - winner last 16 4Semi-final: 6 July 2010, 20:30: Winner quarter final 1 - winner quarter final 2
Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Eliz-abeth, Nelson-Mandela-Bay-stadiumGroup plays:Group B - 12 June 2010, 13:30: South Korea - GreeceGroup G - 15 June 2010, 16:00: Ivory coast - PortugalGroup D - 18 June 2010, 13:30: Germany - SerbiaGroup H - 21 June 2010, 16:00: Chile - SwitzerlandGroup C - 23 June 2010, 16:00: Slovenia - EnglandLast 16: 26 June 2010, 16:00: 1st group A - 2nd group B Quarter final: 2nd July 2010, 16:00: Winner last 16 5 - winner last 16 6 3rd rank play, 10 July 2010, 20:30: Loser semi-final 1 - loser semi-final 2
Mangaung/Bloemfontein, Free-State-stadiumGroup plays:Group E - 14 June 2010, 16:00: Japan - CameroonGroup B - 17 June 2010, 16:00: Greece - NigeriaGroup F - 20 June 2010, 13:30: Slovakia - ParaguayGroup A - 22 June 2010, 16:00: France - South AfricaGroup H - 25 June 2010, 20:30: Switzerland - HondurasLast 16: 27 June 2010, 16:00: 1st group D – 2nd group C
Rustenburg, Royal-Bafokeng-stadiumGroup plays: Group C - 12 June 2010, 20:30: England - USAGroup F - 15 June 2010, 13:30: New Zealand - SlovakiaGroup D - 19 June 2010, 16:00: Ghana - AustraliaGroup A - 22 June 2010, 16:00: Mexico - UruguayGroup E - 24 June 2010, 20:30: Denmark - JapanLast 1626 June 2010, 20:30: 1st group C - 2nd group D
Johannesburg, Soccer CityGroup playsGroup A - 11stJune 2010, 16:00: South Africa - MexicoGroup E - 14. June 2010, 13:30: Netherlands - DenmarkGroup B - 17. June 2010, 13:30: Argentina - South KoreaGroup G - 20. June 2010, 20:30: Brazil - Ivory coastGroup D - 23. June 2010, 20:30: Ghana - GermanyLast 16: 27 June 2010, 20:30: 1st group B - 2nd group A Quarter final: 2 July 2010, 20:30:
Source: Wikipedia
Source: Charles Heiman
Source: Wikimedia Commons/ Mad Simpson panoramio.com
Source: flickr Shine 2010 - 2010 World Cup
Source: flickr Shine 2010 - 2010 World Cup
Source: flickr Shine 2010 - 2010 World Cup
Source: ngrund/panoramio.com
Source: Wikipedia
Source: Bernard Shane Diaz
Source: Wikimedia Commons/Author=Floccus
6 June 2010
Qualification
Group 1 Matches W T L Goals Points
1 Denmark 10 6 3 1 16:5 21
2 Portugal 10 5 4 1 17:5 19
3 Sweden 10 5 3 2 13:5 18
4 Hungary 10 5 1 4 10:8 16
5 Albania 10 1 4 5 6:13 7
6 Malta 10 0 1 9 0:26 1
Group 2 Matches W T L Goals Points
1 Switzerland 10 6 3 1 18:8 21
2 Greece 10 6 2 2 20:10 20
3 Latvia 10 5 2 3 18:15 17
4 Israel 10 4 4 2 20:10 16
5 Luxemburg 10 1 2 7 4:25 5
6 Moldavia 10 0 3 7 6:18 3
Group 3 Matches W T L Goals Points
1 Slovakia 10 7 1 2 22:10 22
2 Slovenia 10 6 2 2 18:4 20
3 Czech Republic 10 4 4 2 17:6 16
4 Northern Ireland 10 4 3 3 13:9 15
5 Poland 10 3 2 5 19:14 11
6 San Marino 10 0 0 10 1:47 0
Group 4 Matches W T L Goals Points
1 Germany 10 8 2 0 26:5 26
2 Russia 10 7 1 2 19:6 22
3 Finnland 10 5 3 2 14:14 18
4 Wales 10 4 0 6 9:12 12
5 Azerbaijan 10 1 2 7 4:14 5
6 Liechtenstein 10 0 2 8 2:23 2
Group 5 Matches W T L Goals Points
1 Spain 10 10 0 0 28:5 30
2 Bosnia and H. 10 6 1 3 25:13 19
3 Turkey 10 4 3 3 13:10 15
4 Belgium 10 3 1 6 13:20 10
5 Estonia 10 2 2 6 9:24 8
6 Armenia 10 1 1 8 6:22 4
Group 6 Matches W T L Goals Points
1 England 10 9 0 1 34:6 27
2 Ukraine 10 6 3 1 21:6 21
3 Croatia 10 6 2 2 19:13 20
4 Belarus 10 4 1 5 19:14 13
5 Kazakhstan 10 2 0 8 11:29 6
6 Andorra 10 0 0 10 3:39 0
Group 7 Matches W T L Goals Points
1 Serbia 10 7 1 2 22:8 22
2 France 10 6 3 1 18:9 21
3 Austria 10 4 2 4 14:15 14
4 Lithuania 10 4 0 6 10:11 12
5 Rumania 10 3 3 4 12:18 12
6 Faroese 10 1 1 8 5:20 4
Group 8 Matches W T L Goals Points
1 Italy 10 7 3 0 18:7 24
2 Ireland 10 4 6 0 12:8 18
3 Bulgaria 10 3 5 2 17:13 14
4 Cyprus 10 2 3 5 14:16 9
5 Montenegro 10 1 6 3 9:14 9
6 Georgia 10 0 3 7 7:19 3
Play-Offs (top 8 runners up)
Greece Ukraine 0:0
Ukraine Greece 0:1
Portugal Bosnia a.H. 1:0
Bosnia a.H. Portugal 0:1
Ireland France 0:1
France Ireland 1:1
Russia Slovenia 2:1
Slovenia Russia 1:0
Group 9 Matches W T L Goals Points
1 Netherlands 8 8 0 0 17:2 24
2 Norway 8 2 4 2 9:7 10
3 Scotland 8 3 1 4 6:11 10
4 Mazedonia 8 2 1 5 5:11 7
5 Iceland 8 1 2 5 7:13 5
European zone/UEFA
7June 2010
Qualification
Matches W T L Goals Points
1 Brazil 18 9 7 2 33:11 34
2 Chile 18 10 3 5 32:22 33
3 Paraguay 18 10 3 5 24:16 33
4 Argentina 18 8 4 6 23:20 28
5 Uruguay 18 6 6 6 28:20 24
6 Ecuador 18 6 5 7 22:26 23
7 Colombia 18 6 5 7 14:18 23
8 Venezuela 18 6 4 8 23:29 22
9 Bolivia 18 4 3 11 22:36 15
10 Peru 18 3 4 11 11:34 13
Group 1 Matches W T L Goals Points
1 Australia 8 6 2 0 12:1 20
2 Japan 8 4 3 1 11:6 15
3 Bahrain 8 3 1 4 6:8 10
4 Katar 8 1 3 4 5:14 6
5 Usbekistan 8 1 1 6 5:10 4
Group 1 Matches W T L Goals Points
1 Cameroon 6 4 1 1 9:2 13
2 Gabun 6 3 0 3 9:7 9
3 Togo 6 2 2 2 3:7 8
4 Marocco 6 0 3 3 3:8 3
Group 2 Matches W T L Goals Points
1 Nigeria 6 3 3 0 9:4 12
2 Tunesia 6 3 2 1 7:4 11
3 Mozambique 6 2 1 3 3:5 7
4 Kenya 6 1 0 5 5:11 3
Group 3 Matches W T L Goals Points
1 Algeria 6 4 1 1 9:4 13
2 Egypt 6 4 1 1 9:4 13
3 Sambia 6 1 2 3 2:5 5
4 Rwanda 6 0 2 4 1:8 2
Group 4 Matches W T L Goals Points
1 Ghana 6 4 1 1 9:3 13
2 Benin 6 3 1 2 6:6 10
3 Mali 6 2 3 1 8:7 9
4 Sudan 6 0 1 5 2:9 1
Group 5 Spiele S U N Tore Punkte
1 Ivory coast 6 5 1 0 19:4 16
2 Burkina Faso 6 4 0 2 10:11 12
3 Malawi 6 1 1 4 4:11 4
4 Guinea 6 1 0 5 7:14 3
Matches W T L Goals Points
1 New Zealand 6 5 0 1 14:5 15
2 New Caledonia 6 2 2 2 12:10 8
3 Fidji 6 2 1 3 8:11 7
4 Vanuatu 6 1 1 4 5:13 4
Matches W T L Goals Points
1 USA 10 6 2 2 19:13 20
2 Mexico 10 6 1 3 16:10 19
3 Honduras 10 5 1 4 17:11 16
4 Costa Rica 10 5 1 4 15:15 16
5 El Salvador 10 2 2 6 9:15 8
6 Trinidad a. Tobago 10 1 3 6 10:22 6
Group 2 Matches W T L Goals Points
1 South Korea 8 4 4 0 12:4 16
2 North Korea 8 3 3 2 7:5 12
3 Saudi Arabia 8 3 3 2 8:8 12
4 Iran 8 2 5 1 8:7 11
5 UAE 8 0 1 7 6:17 1
Play-Offs (of thired ranked teams)
Bahrain Saudi Arabia 0:0
Saudi Arabia Bahrain 2:2
Entscheidungsspiel
Algeria Egypt 1:0
RelegationBahrain New Zealand 0:0
New Zealand Bahrain 1:0Costa Rica Uruguay 0:1
Uruguay Costa Rica 1:1
South American zone/CONMEBOL
North-/Central American and caribbean zone/CONCACAF*
Asian zone/AFC*
African zone/CAF*
Ozeanic zone/OFC*
* last round only * last round only
8 June 2010
0.2% 0.9% 3.6%
16.1%
36.7%
63.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
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South Africa
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
Marques, defender for Barcelona, surely a good thing. Mixed performance so far; they did win the last two games against the USA, and they beat the European Champions Spain, remember? What does that tell us? Not much really, it sounds kind of good though, doesn’t it?
Home advantage, i.e. 12 players , unfortunately without a star if you don’t count their coach, Carlos Alberto Parreira, world champion with Brazil in 1994. Since he took over control there has only been one minor problem spoiling his party – the results were not too good. Could prove difficult with such a track record.
Group A
1.8% 3.3%9.0%
61.9%
38.1%35.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Wor
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Mexico Analysis
Tournament strength +FIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification oTeam market value oFan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 1.8%Betting odds** 1:101Coach 3Goalkeeper 2Defense 3Midfield 2Offense 3
Analysis
Tournament strength -FIFA ranking -World Cup qualification oTeam market value -Fan factor TOPProbability for World Cup title* 0.2%Betting odds** 1:151Coach 1Goalkeeper 4Defense 4Midfield 3Offense 3
participants
9June 2010
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
8.0% 8.8%
59.9%
15.8%15.6%
84.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Wor
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France
Without Zidane, his fantastic technique, great eye and precise passes, it will get difficult. We will have to see if Ribery can fill the huge gap left behind without copying his predecessor's head-banging technique in the final. Good chance for that as Materazzi will be throwing in vulgar remarks from the sidelines only. By the way, France lost to Austria in the qualifying match in Vienna – lookie, lookie.
Very balanced team with 6 victories, 6 draws and 6 losses in the qualification. Beat Costa Rica in the decisive qualifying match. Questionable if that is going to be enough to take home the grand prize.
Group A
Analysis
Tournament strength +FIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification -Team market value oFan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 0.0%Betting odds** 1:130Coach 3Goalkeeper 3Defense 2Midfield 3Offense 2
Analysis
Tournament strength +FIFA ranking +World Cup qualification oTeam market value +Fan factor +Probability for World Cup title* 8.0%Betting odds** 1:19Coach 5Goalkeeper 1Defense 2Midfield 1Offense 3
0.0% 0.2% 1.0%
17.3%
5.4%
82.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Wor
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Uruguay
participants
10 June 2010
0.8% 1.9%6.1%
58.0%
42.0%
25.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Wor
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Nigeria
Six victories in six qualifying matches and coach Lars Lagerbaeck, with his typical Nigerian name, has a stunning record so far. But then again he has only been coach since February 2010 and there were not many games under him – so if you are looking for a hair in the soup ...
Lionel Messi. Any questions? Yes? OK. If he can keep his form from the season in Barcelona he will be hard to stop. But then again this will only work if another genius named Maradona does not use him as a goalkeeper. Given his track record as a coach we would not rule out such a move.
Group B
1.7% 3.2%8.3%
32.6%
67.8%
32.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Wor
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Argentina
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
Analysis
Tournament strength oFIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification -Team market value oFan factor +Probability for World Cup title* 0.8%Betting odds** 1:151Coach 3Goalkeeper 4Defense 3Midfield 2Offense 3
Analysis
Tournament strength +FIFA ranking +World Cup qualification -Team market value +Fan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 1.7%Betting odds** 1:8,5Coach 5Goalkeeper 4Defense 3Midfield 2Offense 1
participants
11June 2010
Who is going to pay for the travel expenses? Can you sell the Cup? Maybe melt it down? Enough, we don’t want to mix football and finance. As second of their group they after all threw out the Ukraine in the decisive match. Now Rehakles and his men are supposed to put a smile back on the lips of their countrymen.
No stars known in Europe, not even any primadonnas, so what can we say. A fiery pair-up could be a match with the brothers from the north, but chances for such a game are rather slim as it could happen no earlier than the quarter finals.
Group B
0.4% 0.9%4.2%
18.6%
47.7%52.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
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Greece
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
Analysis
Tournament strength -FIFA ranking +World Cup qualification oTeam market value oFan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 0.4%Betting odds** 1:201Coach 2Goalkeeper 4Defense 4Midfield 3Offense 3
Analysis
Tournament strength oFIFA ranking -World Cup qualification -Team market value -Fan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 0.1%Betting odds** 1:301Coach 3Goalkeeper 4Defense 4Midfield 2Offense 4
participants
0.1% 0.2% 1.2%7.0%
26.5%
73.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Wor
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Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
South Korea
12 June 2010
0.5% 1.4%
49.5% 50.5%
5.0%
16.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
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USA
Finished the qualifying group with Mexico as first, that’s not bad. No big names but that doesn’t have to be a problem. They also ended Spain’s winning streak in the Confederations Cup 2009. Therefore there seems to be potential to at least survive the group phase.
If you believe market value, a successful team with strong players. Pity that ex-captain John Terry got the one-on-one a bit wrong and now there is another captain. Fabio Capello really had to get order back into the team. Even without David Beckham they should have a strong chance for the title if they can avoid shooting penalties with the Germans.
Group C
17.3%9.1%
14.1%10.9%
61.7%
90.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
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England
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
Analysis
Tournament strength oFIFA ranking +World Cup qualification oTeam market value -Fan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 0.5%Betting odds** 1:81Coach 3Goalkeeper 2Defense 4Midfield 3Offense 3
Analysis
Tournament strength +FIFA ranking +World Cup qualification +Team market value +Fan factor +Probability for World Cup title* 14.1%Betting odds** 1:8Coach 1Goalkeeper 3Defense 2Midfield 2Offense 2
participants
13June 2010
One of the big surprises in qualification. First they ended up second in a group with Northern Ireland, Poland and the Czech Republic, then they eliminated Russia in the decisive last game. A team without big names that has potential. In this group they surely stand a chance.
Qualification brought a rather mixed picture concerning results. In the Africa Cup the semi-final was the end of the road as they lost to Egypt. Currently 30th in the FIFA world ranking, but this doesn’t really help us in the assessment of the team.
Group C
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
Analysis
Tournament strength -FIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification oTeam market value -Fan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 0.1%Betting odds** 1:401Coach 3Goalkeeper 1Defense 3Midfield 4Offense 3
Analysis
Tournament strength -FIFA ranking -World Cup qualification oTeam market value -Fan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 0.2%Betting odds** 1:501Coach 4Goalkeeper 5Defense 3Midfield 3Offense 4
participants
0.1% 0.1%
77.2%
1.1%4.9%
22.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Wor
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Slovenia
0.2% 0.9% 2.8%
10.6%
36.8%
63.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Wor
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Algeria
14 June 2010
0.4% 0.9%
11.3%
31.4%
68.6%
3.3%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Wor
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Australia
0.4% 0.9999999999%%%%%%%%%%%%%
11.3%
31.4%
68.6%
3.3%
15.4%10.3%
19.0%
61.1%
86.1%
13.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Wor
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Germany
They are actually playing down under and survived the last group qualifying round without losing a game, even leaving the proud samurais from Japan in their wake. We can’t tell if it was the Fosters, the Dutch coach or the largely unknown players that made this possible. We also cannot judge whether playing on the southern hemis-phere will give them some kind of advantage.
The strikers are hardly striking, Podolski and Klose together managed to score five times during the entire 2009/2010 bundesliga season. No, that is not a typing error, it was not 50, but 5 (!) goals. Let's wait and see if Jogi is truly a bear or if he eventually ends up as a cartoon during the World Championship. As a tournament team Germany has managed to surprise in the past.
Group D
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
Analysis
Tournament strength -FIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification +Team market value -Fan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 0.4%Betting odds** 1:151Coach 2Goalkeeper 2Defense 3Midfield 3Offense 4
Analysis
Tournament strength +FIFA ranking +World Cup qualification +Team market value +Fan factor +Probability for World Cup title* 15.4%Betting odds** 1:16Coach 2Goalkeeper 1Defense 3Midfield 2Offense 3
participants
15June 2010
0.5% 1.2% 4.4%
14.1%
36.2%
63.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Wor
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Ghana
Mickael Essien, star from Chelsea and head of the team. In the qualification it was a close race as three of four teams ended up with 12 points. The group victory was hanging by a thin goal-difference thread. In the Africa-Cup they made it into the finals.
Besides Slovakia and Slovenia the third team from CEE that made it to South Africa. Names like Nemanja Vidic, Stankovic, Krasic and Ivanovic are surely top. This was seen in the group phase, where not only average teams like France or Romania were left behind, but also top class opponents like Austria.
Group D
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
Analysis
Tournament strength -FIFA ranking -World Cup qualification oTeam market value -Fan factor +Probability for World Cup title* 0.5%Betting odds** 1:81Coach 4Goalkeeper 5Defense 4Midfield 2Offense 4
Analysis
Tournament strength +FIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification +Team market value oFan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 1.1%Betting odds** 1:67Coach 1Goalkeeper 4Defense 2Midfield 2Offense 3
participants
1.1% 2.3%
19.5%
5.6%
53.7%46.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Wor
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Serbia
16 June 2010
9.5%
58.3%
16.8%11.3%
14.6%
83.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Wor
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Take a look at the group phase where Denmark left Portugal and Sweden behind them! Even after looking twice we found no real stand-out superstar. This seems to prove once again that eleven workers can perform better than eleven bosses.
Robben and Sneijder have really been on fire since their departure from Real Madrid and managed to play the Champions League Final without their former employer. They not only played well for their clubs but also for the national team. Eight victories in eight matches - that makes them a top candidate for the title. Maybe this time the tulips will finally come home with the cup instead of old Gouda.
Group E
0.3% 1.0% 2.6%
12.9%
34.5%
65.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Wor
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Denmark
Netherlands
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
Analysis
Tournament strength oFIFA ranking -World Cup qualification oTeam market value oFan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 0.3%Betting odds** 1:151Coach 3Goalkeeper 4Defense 2Midfield 3Offense 4
Analysis
Tournament strength +FIFA ranking +World Cup qualification TOPTeam market value +Fan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 11.3%Betting odds** 1:13Coach 3Goalkeeper 3Defense 2Midfield 1Offense 2
participants
17June 2010
1.7%
28.1%
42.8%
57.2%
6.6%3.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Wor
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Cameroon
Geographically closest to South Africa. Then again that is still 3000 km as the crow flies and that, to us, does not confer a home advantage. Star of the team is Samuel Eto’o; during the Africa-Cup they lost to the cup winners Egypt in the quarter finals.
Group-Harakiri can be postponed as qualification was managed (they left behind Bahrain, Qatar and Uzbekis-tan). Unlike in other cases, it could be a positive thing if the gas pedal jammed this time during the tournament.
Group E
0.1% 0.5% 1.7%8.4%
74.9%
25.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Wor
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Japan
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
Analysis
Tournament strength oFIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification oTeam market value oFan factor +Probability for World Cup title* 1.7%Betting odds** 1:126Coach 2Goalkeeper 2Defense 3Midfield 3Offense 2
Analysis
Tournament strength -FIFA ranking -World Cup qualification -Team market value -Fan factor +Probability for World Cup title* 0.1%Betting odds** 1:401Coach 4Goalkeeper 4Defense 4Midfield 3Offense 4
participants
18 June 2010
0.1% 0.3% 1.7%
8.9%
36.2%
63.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Wor
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Paraguay
6.3%12.0% 10.1%13.8%
62.5%
93.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Wor
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Italy
Came ahead of Argentina in their group. They also have an Argentinean coach, but as long as it is not Ma-radona that does not have to be a bad sign. Looking at the FIFA ranking they are at the lower quarter of the championship participants. We still reckon they stand a good chance of surviving the group stage.
The title defender, fifth in the FIFA ranking, an experienced team, good tacticians, know how to make strong cement. Nevertheless, it will be a hard task to defend the title. In the group phase they lost no game under their coach Marcello Lippi. Neither Zidane nor Materazzi are going to play so they will have to sort out their differences behind the cameras. However, time and location of that match had not yet reached us by the time of publication.
Group F
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
Analysis
Tournament strength oFIFA ranking -World Cup qualification -Team market value oFan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 0.1%Betting odds** 1:81Coach 4Goalkeeper 4Defense 3Midfield 4Offense 2
Analysis
Tournament strength +FIFA ranking +World Cup qualification +Team market value +Fan factor +Probability for World Cup title* 12.0%Betting odds** 1:15Coach 1Goalkeeper 1Defense 2Midfield 2Offense 2
participants
19June 2010
0.5% 1.2%4.1%
18.6%
45.1%
54.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Wor
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Slovakia
Group winners in a group that cannot be called easy. Still only ranking 34th in the FIFA list. Obviously the group phase went well. The most expensive player according to our data is Marek Hamsik from SSC Napoli. Perhaps we will know more about this young man after the championship, as for now, we don’t.
Beating a couple of small islands in the qualification round was not the greatest task. At the end they beat Bah-rain in the decisive match. In our opinion this does not make them top favorite for the title. Taking a look at the players market value they end up just north of North Korea – that doesn’t really make it any better.
Group F
0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.2%
15.2%
84.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Wor
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New Zealand
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
Analysis
Tournament strength oFIFA ranking -World Cup qualification +Team market value oFan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 0.5%Betting odds** 1:401Coach 3Goalkeeper 4Defense 4Midfield 3Offense 4
Analysis
Tournament strength -FIFA ranking -World Cup qualification +Team market value -Fan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 0.0%Betting odds** 1:3001Coach 4Goalkeeper 5Defense 3Midfield 4Offense 4
participants
20 June 2010
There will certainly be no lack of effort or willingness to run for fear of disappointing the beloved great leader. The fear of having to go back home early can give the extra air that may be required. The players are probably truly hungry, not only for success. We will see whether they will be able to make a revolution. Taking FIFA ranking they are last and in market value of the players they are truly anti-capitalist.
Number one in the FIFA rankings. Samba, great football, oh how we admire the football they play. Not part of the team anymore due to his age, and probably to a larger extent his weight, is Ronaldo, who has in previous championships literally rolled over the defensive lines. In any case it is one of the big teams that one has to beat on the way to the cup.
Group G
8.1% 8.2%
50.8%
17.4%13.0%
82.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Wor
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Brazil
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
99.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Wor
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North Korea
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
Analysis
Tournament strength -FIFA ranking -World Cup qualification -Team market value -Fan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 0.0%Betting odds** 1:2001Coach 5Goalkeeper 5Defense 5Midfield 5Offense 4
Analysis
Tournament strength TOPFIFA ranking TOPWorld Cup qualification -Team market value +Fan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 8.1%Betting odds** 1:6Coach 3Goalkeeper 1Defense 2Midfield 2Offense 2
participants
21June 2010
1.6% 2.8%
58.9%
41.1%
25.2%
6.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Wor
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Portugal
With a serious level of pride, and in the case of some of their superstars with a lot of styling gel, they once again attempt to gain a major title. The potential is certainly there but as of today the realization of the whole thing leaves room for improvement. Remember the qualifying where they let Denmark go first.
The team built around superstar Didier Drogba and the experienced coach Sven-Goeran Eriksson (who is also well known for his off the field playing) probably has the most difficult group of the tournament. It should be a hard task but if they play the man marking as he has shown them (this time on the field) we are in for some exciting matches.
Group G
1.5% 2.6%
58.0%
42.0%
5.8%
24.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Wor
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Ivory Coast
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
Analysis
Tournament strength oFIFA ranking +World Cup qualification -Team market value +Fan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 1.6%Betting odds** 1:29Coach 2Goalkeeper 4Defense 2Midfield 3Offense 1
Analysis
Tournament strength -FIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification +Team market value +Fan factor +Probability for World Cup title* 1,5 %Betting odds** 1:34Coach 2Goalkeeper 4Defense 3Midfield 2Offense 2
participants
22 June 2010
16.4%7.8%
63.2%
13.9%10.3%
92.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Wor
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0.7% 1.7%4.8%
19.8%
52.6%47.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Wor
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Switzerland
Spain
Qualification was managed without any problem, even though the group was not really deadly. But then again you have to beat the small teams first, and that is not always a done deal – we Austrians can tell of that …. a true Faroese-Tale. Coach is Ottmar Hitzfeld, surely not the one who would be to blame in the case of early retirement as he has proven that he can win titles in the Champions League.
Ruling European champion, 15 wins in a row, 35 games without a loss – until the US boys ended their series. In former World Championships their level of homesickness was fairly high and a fourth place was the height of their achievements. Maybe this time they will manage to break the spell, the potential is there.
Group H
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
Analysis
Tournament strength oFIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification oTeam market value oFan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 0.7%Betting odds** 1:201Coach 1Goalkeeper 1Defense 4Midfield 3Offense 4
Analysis
Tournament strength +FIFA ranking +World Cup qualification TOPTeam market value TOPFan factor +Probability for World Cup title* 16.4%Betting odds** 1:5,5Coach 1Goalkeeper 1Defense 2Midfield 1Offense 1
participants
23June 2010
0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
89.0%
11.0%1.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Wor
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Honduras
Second in the South America group just behind the mighty Brazilians. Combined with a remarkable 18th spot in the FIFA ranking. In any case the altitudes at which some matches are being played in South Africa should not worry the players from the Andes.
In the first group phase they ended up in front of Mexico, in the second group phase they ended up behind Mexico. They played Mexico four times, lost twice and won twice. In the FIFA ranking they are 38th and well behind Mexico. But enough of the comparison with Mexico, they have a Columbian coach.
Group H
0.4% 1.0% 3.5%
14.5%
55.8%
44.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Wor
ldC
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Chile
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)
Analysis
Tournament strength oFIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification -Team market value oFan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 0.4%Betting odds** 1:67Coach 3Goalkeeper 4Defense 4Midfield 3Offense 3
Analysis
Tournament strength -FIFA ranking -World Cup qualification -Team market value -Fan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 0.0%Betting odds** 1:1001Coach 4Goalkeeper 5Defense 4Midfield 3Offense 4
participants
24 June 2010
Overview of participants
Participations in a World Cup
WC titles
Best result in a World Cup
WC games
Average points per
game
Market value of team in
EUR
Average value per player in
EURFIFA
ranking
South Africa 2 0 First round (1998, 2002) 6 1.00 32,750,000 1,091,667 83
Mexico 13 0 Quarter final (1970, 1986) 45 0.96 93,050,000 3,578,846 17
Uruguay 10 2 World Champion (1930, 1950) 40 1.49 137,200,000 5,276,923 16
France 12 1 World Champion (1998) 51 1.74 427,700,000 14,256,667 9
Argentina 14 2 World Champion (1978, 1986) 65 1.80 388,300,000 12,943,333 7
Nigeria 3 0 Last 16 (1994, 1998) 11 1.18 132,800,000 4,426,667 21
South Korea 7 0 Vierter (2002) 24 0.91 52,200,000 1,740,000 47
Greece 1 0 First round (1994) 3 0.00 100,900,000 3,363,333 13
England 12 1 World Champion (1966) 55 1.65 541,500,000 18,050,000 8
USA 8 0 Third (1930) 25 0.84 61,700,000 2,056,667 14
Algeria 2 0 First round (1982, 1986) 6 1.17 51,700,000 2,068,000 30
Slovenia 1 0 First round (2002) 3 0.00 48,150,000 1,605,000 25
Germany 16 3 World Champion (1954, 1974, 1990) 92 2.07 359,000,000 11,218,750 6
Australia 2 0 Last 16 (2006) 7 0.83 76,175,000 2,457,258 20
Serbia* 0 0 - 0 204,450,000 7,050,000 15
Ghana 1 0 Last 16 (2006) 4 1.50 103,200,000 3,440,000 32
Netherlands 8 0 Second (1974 und 1978) 36 1.58 285,050,000 9,501,667 4
Denmark 3 0 Quarter final (1998) 13 1.77 98,500,000 3,283,333 36
Japan 3 0 Last 16 (2002) 10 0.80 87,750,000 2,925,000 45
Cameroon 5 0 Quarter final (1990) 17 1.12 152,000,000 5,066,667 19
Italy 16 4 World Champion (1934, 1938, 1982, 2006) 77 1.79 387,500,000 12,916,667 5
Paraguay 7 0 Last 16 (1986, 1998, 2002) 22 1.14 80,450,000 2,681,667 31
New Zealand 1 0 First round (1982) 3 0.00 13,475,000 449,167 78
Slovakia 0 0 - 0 87,800,000 3,027,586 34
Ivory Coast 1 0 First round (2006) 3 1.00 198,975,000 6,632,500 27
Portugal 4 0 Third (1966) 19 2.00 287,400,000 11,975,000 3
Brazil 18 5 World Champion (1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, 2002) 92 2.27 353,100,000 15,352,174 1
North Korea 1 0 Quarter final (1966) 4 1.00 10,350,000 345,000 105
Honduras 1 0 Group stage (1982) 3 0.67 48,650,000 1,621,667 38
Chile 7 0 Third (1962) 25 1.08 95,675,000 3,189,167 18
Spain 12 0 Fourth (1950) 49 1.59 729,500,000 24,316,667 2
Switzerland 9 0 Quarter final (1934, 1938, 1954) 26 1.08 104,250,000 4,532,609 24
* without Jugoslavia and Serbia MontenegroSource: www.transfermarkt.de, Wikipedia
25June 2010
Quotes
Ruud Gullit: We must have had 99% of the game. It was the other 3% that cost us the match.
Ian Rush: I couldn’t settle in Italy. It was like living in a foreign country.
Glenn Hoddle: Michael Owen is a goalscorer; not a natural born, not yet; that takes time.
Reporter: Gordon, can we have a quick word please?”Gordon Strachan: Velocity (walks off)
Georg Best: In 1969 I gave up women and alcohol; it was the worst 20 minutes of my life.
Paul Gascoigne: I never make predictions and I never will.
Alan Shearer: One accusation you can’t throw at me is that I’ve always done my best.
Ronaldo: We lost because we didn’t win.
Gary Lineker: There’s no in between you’re either good or bad… We were in between.
Mark Viduka: I would not be bothered if we lost every game as long as we won the league.
Mark Draper: I’d like to play for an Italian club like Barcelona.
Terry Venables: If history repeats itself, I should think we can expect the same thing.
Ron Atkinson: I would not say he is the best left winger in the Pre-
miership, but there are none better.
Bobby Robson: We didn’t underestimate them. They were a lot better than we
thought.
Schillaci: I dedicate that goal in particular to everyone.
Andy Gray: It’s one of the greatest goals ever, but I’m surprised that people are talking
about it being the goal of the season.
Mark Lawrenson: Mick McCarthy will have to re-place Cascarino because he’s quickly running out of legs.
Graeme Souness: Today’s top players only want to play in London or for Manchester United. That’s what happened when I tried to sign Alan Shearer and he went to Blackburn.
Stunning soccer quotes
26 June 2010
Match schedule
Group A South Africa Mexico
:Johannesburg, 11 June 16:00 Uruguay France
:Cape Town, 11 June 20:30 South Africa Uruguay
:Tshwane/Pretoria, 16/06 20:30 France Mexico
:Polokwane, 17 June 20:30Mexico Uruguay
:Rustenburg, 22 June 16:00 France South Africa
:Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 22 June 16:00
Group B Argentina Nigeria
:Johannesburg, 12 June 16:00 South Korea Greece
:Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 12 June 13:30 Greece Nigeria
:Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 17 June 16:00 Argentina South Korea
:Johannesburg, 17 June 13:30 Nigeria South Korea
:Durban, 22 June 20:30 Greece Argentina
:Polokwane, 22 June 20:30
Group C England USA
:Rustenburg, 12 June 20:30 Algeria Slovenia
:Polokwane, 13 June 13:30 Slovenia USA
:Johannesburg, 18 June 16:00England Algeria
:Cape Town, 18 June 20:30 Slovenia England
:Nelson Madela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 23 June 16:00 USA Algeria
:Tshwane/Pretoria, 23 June 16:00
Group D Germany Australia
:Durban, 13 June 20:30 Serbia Ghana
:Tshwane/Pretoria, 13 June 16:00 Germany Serbia
:Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 18 June 13:30 Ghana Australia
:Rustenburg, 19 June 16:00 Ghana Germany
:Johannesburg, 23 June 20:30 Australia Serbia
:Nelspruit, 23 June 20:30
Group E Netherlands Denmark
:Johannesburg, 14 June 13:30 Japan Cameroon
:Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 14 June 16:00 Netherlands Japan
:Durban, 19 June 13:30 Cameroon Denmark
:Tshwane/Pretoria, 19 June 20:30 Denmark Japan
:Rustenburg, 24 June 20:30 Cameroon Netherlands
:Cape Town, 24 June 20:30
Group F Italy Paraguay
:Cape Town, 14 June 20:30 New Zealand Slovakia
:Rustenburg, 15 June 13:30 Slovakia Paraguay
:Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 20 June 13:30 Italy New Zealand
:Nelspruit, 20 June 16:00 Slovakia Italy
:Johannesburg, 24 June 16:00 Paraguay New Zealand
:Polokwane, 24 June 16:00
Group G Ivory Coast Portugal
:Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 15 June 16:00 Brazil North Korea
:Johannesburg, 15 June 20:30 Brazil Ivory Coast
:Johannesburg, 20 June 20:30 Portugal North Korea
:Cape Town, 21 June 13:30 Portugal Brazil
:Durban, 25 June 16:00 North Korea Ivory Coast
:Nelspruit, 24 June 16:00
Group H Honduras Chile
:Nelspruit, 16 June 13:30 Spain Switzerland
:Durban, 16 June 16:00 Chile Switzerland
:Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 21 June 16:00 Spain Honduras
:Johannesburg, 21 June 20:30 Chile Spain
:Tshwane/Pretoria, 25 June 20:30 Switzerland Honduras
:Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 25 June 20:30
27June 2010
Match schedule
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28 June 2010
WC Quiz
1 How many World Championships have taken place in Africa before?
a) oneb) twoc) threed) none
2 Where is the final of the World Championship going to be played?
a) Durbanb) Cape Townc) Johannesburgd) Atlantis
3 Who scored the so called Wembley-goal at the World Championship final 1966 between Eng-land and Germany?
a) Johan Cruyffb) Geoff Hurstc) Bobby Robsond) Gerd Müller
4 How many times has a hosting nation won the World Championship?
a) twiceb) four timesc) six timesd) eight times
5 How many times could a reigning World Cham-pion defend his title?
a) onceb) twicec) three timesd) four times
6 Who is the top scorer in World Championship history with all together 15 goals scored?
a) Ronaldo (BRA)b) Gerd Müller (GER)c) Just Fontaine (FRA)d) Gabriel Batistuta (ARG)
7 Who won the first World Championship title in 1930?
a) Brazilb) Hungaryc) Franced) Uruguay
8 The qualification match between Australia and American Samoa for the 2002 World Champi-onship ended with the biggest defeat of a natio-nal team in history. How did the game end?
a) 0:31b) 2:13c) 0:16d) 1:17
9 Who missed the decisive last penalty at penalty shootout during the 1994 World Championship final?
a) Tino Knoffb) Roberto Baggioc) Carlos Dungad) Franco Baresi
10 How many visitors on average saw the matches during the 1972 World Championship in the Soviet Union?
a) 3.6 millionb) 2.1 millionc) Noned) 1.5 million
11 How many nations where able to win the World Championship up until now?
a) 9b) 6c) 8d) 7
12 In which game of the final round in a World Championship where the most goals scored?
a) Austria – Switzerlandb) Hungary – El Salvadorc) France – Paraguayd) Germany – Timbuktu
13 Why was the French player Zinedine Zidane sent off during the World Championship final 2006?
a) He pulled down the trouser of the refereeb) He attacked his opponent with a head-buttc) He insulted the opponent with his middle fingerd) He spat at Rudi Völler
29June 2010
WC Quiz
21 Which of the following players is taking part in the 2010 World Championship?
a) Fabio Grossob) Francesco Tottoc) Luca Tonid) Fabio Cannavaro
22 Which national team shot the most goals during the qualification for the 2010 World Championship?
a) Mexicob) Germanyc) Englandd) Netherlands
23 Who is record holder in World Championship titles?
a) Italyb) Germanyc) Argentinad) Brazil
24 How many teams are participating in the 2010 World Championship?
a) 32b) 50c) 16d) 24
25 Which teams played the first ever final in 1930?a) Germany – Portugalb) Brazil – Uruguayc) Brazil – Italyd) Uruguay – Argentina
answers on page 33
14 What do the championship contestants USA and the Netherlands have in common during the 2010 World Championship?
a) For both countries it is the 9th participation in a world championshipb) They both have a dutch coachc) They both play in Group Cd) They both never played at a world champion-ship before
15 Zakumi the World Championship mascot is what kind of animal?
a) Cheetahb) Leopardc) Liond) Ape
16 Which national team never reached a World Championship final?
a) Spainb) Swedenc) Uruguayd) Former Soviet Union
17 Which nation participated in a World Champi-onship for the first time in 1950?
a) Austriab) Columbiac) Englandd) Egypt
18 Which award is not being given after a World Championship?
a) Most entertaining teamb) Best young playerc) Best old playerd) Fairest team
19 During the 2002 World Championship in Japan and South Korea, which team shot the “golden goal” in the 116th minute to go on into the quarter final?
a) Italyb) South Koreac) Japand) Brazil
20 Which of the four teams is the most successful in the combined World Championship table?
a) Austriab) Polandc) Portugald) Croatia
30 June 2010
Model
The model
Model calculation
The recent rise in wild price jumps on the financial markets has made it completely apparent that see-mingly impossible events can have a lasting impact on the bigger picture. For instance, if we were to take away the S&P 500 stock index’s five largest daily losses since the beginning of 1964, the index would be at roughly 81% higher than its current stan-ding. Although this realisation has led some market participants to revise their strategies, it has always been an essential part of every football and sport enthusiast’s motto: Anything is possible (in sport)!Therefore, a simple comparison of various teams’ strength is not enough to determine their chances of winning the 2010 Football World Cup. In a complex system comprising group and knockout phases, like the 2010 FIFA World Cup, chance plays a decisive role. For teams that are similar in terms of perfor-mance, each team’s form on the day of the match can determine the winner and loser. In a penalty shoo-tout, “chance” – i.e. which corner the shooter choo-ses and which direction the goalie goes – plays an even greater role than attributes such as endurance and a deep understanding of the game, which are otherwise so important. Another essential factor in determining a team’s potential is its starting position in the tournament. If a team with average strength is up against weak opponents, it has the potential to go far in the tournament. And if this sort of underdog is in form and enjoys a bit of luck (or its opponent has a sudden moment of weakness), it could even ma-nage to make it all the way to the World Cup finals. We apply a method of risk analysis to determine the participating teams’ chances of winning the coveted World Cup in 2010.
The indicators
Our calculation of each team’s probability of delive-ring strong performance at the 2010 FIFA World Cup involves two stages. First, we use several quantitative factors to determine an indicator of the strength of the teams from all the participating countries. To do this, we combine the following factors:
Tournament strength: How well each team has per-formed in the World Cup since 1930 can be de-termined by looking at each team’s rankings in the historical tables for all FIFA Football World Cups.
team strength
uncertainty
probability distribution
for performance
contender quality
constitution of the day
FIFA ranking
penalty shootout at similar strength
World Cup qualificationmarket value
of players
fan support
Model calculation
group stage & tournament
simu lation of 10.000
World Champion-
ships
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
31June 2010
Model
FIFA ranking: The FIFA ranking from 28 April 2010 represents the current strength of the nati-onal teams. The ranking takes into account each A-team’s international matches over the last four years, with the results from last year weighted at 50% in the ranking. Results from three to four years ago only have a 10% weighting in the ranking, and matches that took place before that are igno-red completely.
World Cup qualifications: How well a team does in the World Cup qualifications not only represents the team’s current strength but also serves as an indicator of its momentum and as a sign of high self-confidence. For our calculation, we use the number of wins during the World Cup qualifica-tions. One disadvantage of this method is that we ignore the differences in performance between the individual groups in the qualifications.
Market value of players: The value of a player on the transfer market is based not only on the player’s current strength but also on his potential. So this in-dicator allows us not only to identify strong teams but also to reflect each team’s potential. Players with a high market value also have international experience, so they should be able to deal with the exceptional circumstances of a Football World Cup better than a relatively unknown newcomer.
Fan factor: The 12th man plays a very decisive role, particularly during large tournaments. In or-der to calculate the fan factor, we determine the financial potential of the fans travelling to South Africa to support their teams there. For this, we looked at the most affordable flights between each participating country’s capital and Cape Town in relation to the country’s GDP. Since it is by far the cheapest for South Africans to “travel” to Cape Town, this indicator also represents the home field advantage.
The World Cup simulation
In order to combine the five indicators into a measure of strength, we transform the data series to make the various scales comparable. For ranking lists (FIFA ran-king and tournament strength), first we take the square root. As a result, the difference between 20th and 21st place is less substantial than the difference bet-ween first and second. Then we standardise all of the indicators by subtracting the sample mean from each data point and dividing the difference by the sample standard distribution. This results in indicators centred around zero with comparable standard deviation. We add the individual components with the same weigh-
Spain 16.4%
Germany 15.4%
England 14.1%
Italy12.0%
Neatherlands 11.3%
Brazil 8.1%
France 8.0%
Others 14.8%
Chances of winning
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Spai
n
Ger
man
y
Engl
and
Italy
Net
herla
nds
Braz
il
Fran
ce
Model estimate Bookmaker's odds
Results
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH, wettbasis.com
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Our dream team
Benaglio
PuyolVidic Maicon
Xavi Schweinsteiger
RobbenMessiC. Ronaldo
Lahm
Villa
32 June 2010
Model
ting to come up with an indicator for team strength. We are aware, for instance, that a team’s tournament strength is not as crucial as its current strength when it comes to winning the World Cup. However, since our strength indicator contains the teams’ FIFA ranking, the market value of their players and their performance in the qualification rounds – three factors representing current strength – this aspect is overweighted in rela-tion to the other factors. The final result is a factor on a scale of 0 to 100 that indicates each team’s strength.In the second stage, we simulate the course of the Football World Cup as a whole, comprising the group phase and the knockout phase. A “match” involving two teams is simply a comparison of both teams’ strength (indicator). If a team is 10% better than its op-ponent (its indicator is 10% higher), it wins the match. If neither of the teams is at least 10% better than the other, the match in the group phase ends in a draw in our simulation. Starting with the last 16, matches where both teams have a similar level of strength end in a penalty shootout, and pure chance determines the winner and loser.In order to take the element of chance into account, we add an error term to each team’s strength indica-tor for each individual match. This error term can be interpreted as the team’s form on the day of the match and is uniformly distributed between -50 and 50. In other words, it is possible, though highly unlikely, that the worst team on a good day (0+50) could be equal to the best team on a bad day (100-50). After the group phase, the top two teams from each of the eight groups enter the knockout phase. If there is a tie on the points table, the winner is decided by a drawing of lots.Now we can run through the 2010 Football World Cup using a Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation relies on the fact that each team’s form can vary on each match day, so things can change around comple-tely in each of our World Cup simulations. We simula-ted the 2010 FIFA World Cup a total of 10,000 times. The relative frequency of each team’s rankings (how many times out of 10,000 each team won the World Cup) provides a probability distribution for how the participating teams will perform. The great advantage of this method is that we compare not only the strength of the various teams but also their starting positions in the tournament. A team with relatively weak oppo-nents in the group phase or with relatively weak oppo-nents at the beginning of the knockout phase undoub-tedly has better chances of winning than a team that faces a bumpy road to make it through the group and knockout phases. Since we simulated the World Cup
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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USA
Sout
h Ko
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Hon
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s
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frica
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orea
The bargain buys (EUR mn)
Source: www.transfermarkt.de
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The most expensive teams (EUR mn)
Source: www.transfermarkt.de
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Less expensive teams (EUR mn)
Source: www.transfermarkt.de
33June 2010
Model
10,000 times, the effects of the group composition are taken into account.
Results
The results of our Monte Carlo simulation show a clear dominance on the part of the European teams. With a 16.4% chance of winning, Spain is just ahead of Germany (15.4%) in the battle for the 2010 World Cup. The decisive factors in this were the Spa-nish team’s strength in the World Cup qualifications and the high market value of its ace footballers. The Brazilian Seleção came in sixth, with a mere 8.1% chance of winning against the other contenders. In particular, the team’s lack of self-confidence resulting from its relatively weak performance in the qualifica-tions and the low fan factor due to the high expense of travelling from Brazil to South Africa could have a negative impact on the Samba Kings. The traditio-nal football nations may be facing off against each other in the end. According to our simulation, there is an 85% chance that one of the contenders from the extended circle of favourites – Spain, Germany, Eng-land, Italy, the Netherlands, Brazil and France – will win the championship. Mexico’s chances of winning, at just under 2%, make it the most promising dark horse.Bookies usually select odds in a way that allows them to balance out the winnings they have to pay out in all possible cases. In this respect, betting odds can be seen as the market’s view on the probability of a team winning the World Cup. In comparison to the probabilities calculated by us, there are two great outliers. The relatively weak group phase and the weak support expected from the fans have (still) not had an effect on the betting odds. Behind Spain, Bra-zil is seen as the top contender on the market. How-ever, we believe that the Brazilian team is overrated and that it does not offer enough potential of winning the championship. In contrast, Germany was strong during the qualifications and can count on a great deal of support from its fans. Based on our calculati-ons, betting on Germany to win the World Cup offers relatively favourable odds.
Quiz answers
1 d) 2010 World Championship will be the first in Africa.
2 c) The final is going to be played in Johannesburg (Soc-cer City).
3 b) The Wembley-goal was scored by Geoff Hurst.
4 c) Six times: Uruguay (1930), Italy (1934), England (1966), Germany (1974), Argentina (1978), France (1998)
5 c) Twice: Italy (1938), Brazil (1962)
6 a) Ronaldo
7 d) Uruguay won the first World Championship in 1930.
8 a) Australia won by 31:0.
9 b) Roberto Baggio
10 c) In 1972 no World Championship was played in the Soviet Union.
11 d) Seven: Brazil, Italy, France, Germany, Argentina, England and Uruguay
12 a) Austria won against Switzerland in the 1954 World Championship with 7:5.
13 b) He attacked an opponent with a head-butt.
14 a) The Netherlands and the USA are participating for the 9th time in a World Championship.
15 b) A leopard
16 a) Spain has never reached a Championship final.
17 c) England participated for the first time in 1950.
18 c) No award is being given for the “best old player”.
19 b) The Republic of Korea.
20 b) Poland (they rank 13th), followed by Croatia (16th), Austria (17th) and Portugal (19th)
21 d) Fabio Cannavaro
22 c) England scored 3.4 goals on average per game.
23 d) Brazil with 5 World Cup titles.
24 a) 32 teams are taking part.
25 d) Uruguay vs. Argentina
34 June 2010
Model results
Group A South Africa Mexico
1 : 2Johannesburg, 11 June 16:00 Uruguay France
0 : 2Cape Town, 11 June 20:30 South Africa Uruguay
1 : 0Tshwane/Pretoria, 16.06. 20:30 France Mexico
2 : 1Polokwane, 17 June 20:30Mexico Uruguay
1 : 0Rustenburg, 22 June 16:00 France South Africa
2 : 0Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 22 June 16:00
Group B Argentina Nigeria
2 : 1Johannesburg, 12 June 16:00 South Korea Greece
1 : 1Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 12 June 3:30 Greece Nigeria
1 : 3Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 17 June 16:00 Argentina South Korea
2 : 0Johannesburg, 17 June 13:30 Nigeria South Korea
0 : 0Durban, 22 June 20:30 Greece Argentina
0 : 2Polokwane, 22 June 20:30
Group C England USA
2 : 0Rustenburg, 12 June 20:30 Algeria Slovenia
1 : 1Polokwane, 13 June 13:30 Slovenia USA
0 : 1Johannesburg, 18 June 16:00England Algeria
3 : 0Cape Town, 18 June 20:30 Slovenia England
1 : 2Nelson Madela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 23.06. 16:00 USA Algeria
1 : 1Tshwane/Pretoria, 23 June 16:00
Group D Germany Australia
2 : 0Durban, 13 June 20:30 Serbia Ghana
1 : 0Tshwane/Pretoria, 13 June 16:00 Germany Serbia
1 : 1Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 18 June 13:30 Ghana Australia
0 : 0Rustenburg, 19 June 16:00 Ghana Germany
0 : 2Johannesburg, 23 June 20:30 Australia Serbia
0 : 2Nelspruit, 23 June 20:30
Group E Netherlands Denmark
2 : 0Johannesburg, 14 June 13:30 Japan Cameroon
1 : 2Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 14 June 16:00 Netherlands Japan
3 : 0Durban, 19 June 13:30 Cameroon Denmark
0 : 0Tshwane/Pretoria, 19 June 20:30 Denmark Japan
1 : 1Rustenburg, 24 June 20:30 Cameroon Netherlands
1 : 2Cape Town, 24 June 20:30
Group F Italy Paraguay
2 : 0Cape Town, 14 June 20:30 New Zealand Slovakia
0 : 3Rustenburg, 15 June 13:30 Slovakia Paraguay
1 : 0Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 20 June 13:30 Italy New Zealand
3 : 0Nelspruit, 20 June 16:00 Slovakia Italy
1 : 3Johannesburg, 24 June 16:00 Paraguay New Zealand
2 : 0Polokwane, 24 June 16:00
Group G Ivory Coast Portugal
2 : 2Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 15 June 16:00 Brazil North Korea
4 : 0Johannesburg, 15 June 20:30 Brazil Ivory Coast
1 : 0Johannesburg, 20 June 20:30 Portugal North Korea
3 : 0Cape Town, 21 June 13:30 Portugal Brazil
1 : 1Durban, 25 June 16:00 North Korea Ivory Coast
0 : 3Nelspruit, 24 June 16:00
Group H Honduras Chile
0 : 2Nelspruit, 16 June 13:30 Spain Switzerland
3 : 1Durban, 16 June 16:00 Chile Switzerland
1 : 1Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 21 June 16:00 Spain Honduras
2 : 0Johannesburg, 21 June 20:30 Chile Spain
1 : 3Tshwane/Pretoria, 25 June 20:30 Switzerland Honduras
0 : 0Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 25 June 20:30
35June 2010
Model results
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- Br
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third
pla
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Braz
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: 5*
Nel
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10 Ju
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title
Engl
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- Sp
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, 11
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20:
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-Sl
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: 0W
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Win
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4 : 5
*Jo
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2 Ju
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0:30
Arg
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a -
Mex
ico
1 : 0
*W
inne
r Gro
up B
- se
cond
Gro
up A
Dur
ban,
28
June
20:
30
Ger
man
y -
USA
2 : 0
Win
ner g
roup
D -
seco
nd g
roup
CJo
hann
esbu
rg, 2
8 Ju
ne 2
0:30
Arg
entin
a -
Ger
man
y0
: 1C
ape
Tow
n, 0
3 Ju
ly 1
6:00
Italy
- Ca
mer
oon
3 : 1
Win
ner g
roup
F -
seco
nd g
roup
ETs
hwan
e/Pr
etor
ia, 2
9 Ju
ne 1
6:00
Spai
n -
Port
ugal
2 : 0
Win
ner g
roup
H -
seco
nd g
roup
GC
ape
Tow
n, 2
9 Ju
ne 2
0:30
Italy
- Sp
ain
1 : 3
Joha
nnes
burg
, 03
July
20:
30
Qua
rter
-fina
lsSe
mi-f
inal
sFi
nal
* in
ext
ra ti
me
* pe
nalty
sho
otou
t
* pe
nalty
sho
otou
t
36 June 2010
World Cup 2010
Raiffeisen RESEARCH Our Team
This report was completed on 26 May 2010
Acknowledgements:Editor: Raiffeisen RESEARCH GmbH, A-1030 Vienna, Am Stadtpark 9, Telephone: +43 1 717 07-0, Telefax +43 1 717 07-1848
Published by: Raiffeisen RESEARCH GmbH, 1030 Vienna, Am Stadtpark 9. Published and manufactured in ViennaPrinted by Rabl Druck, 3493 SchremsDesign: Kathrin Korinek, Birgit Bachhofner
Head of Raiffeisen RESEARCH: Peter Brezinschek (1517)Analysts:Economics, Fixed Income, FX:Valentin Hofstätter (Leitung, 1685), Jörg Angelé (1687), Walter Demel (1526), Wolfgang Ernst (1500), Ingo Jungwirth (2139), Marcian Kopaczynski (1423), Julya Neudorfer (5842), Andreas Schwabe (1389), Gintaras Shlizhyus (1343), Gottfried Steindl (1523), Martin Stelzeneder (1614)
Credit/Corporate Bonds:Christoph Klaper (Leitung, 1652), Martin Kutny (2013), Doris Oswald (1631), Manuel Schreiber (3533), Gleb Shpilevoy (1461), Birgit Sigl (5892), Alexander Sklemin (1212), Beatrix Thaler (5924)
Stocks:Helge Rechberger (Leitung, 1533), Aaron Alber (1513), Christian Hinterwallner (1633), Jörn Lange (2163), Hannes Loacker (1885), Richard Malzer (5935), Johannes Mattner (1463), Christine Nowak (1625), Leopold Salcher (2176), Andreas Schiller (1358), Connie Schümann (2178), Magdalena Wasowicz (2169)
Quant Research/Emerging Markets:Veronika Lammer (Leitung, 3741), Lydia Kranner (1609), Nina Kukic (1635), Christian Link (1355), Andreas Reschreiter (1683), Josef Wolfesberger (1529)
Technical Analysis:Klemens Hrovath (1421), Robert Schittler (1537)
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