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WORLD DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2019
THE CHANGING NATURE OF WORK
An Open Source and Transparent Process
▪Weekly updated drafts:http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2019
▪ 130,000 downloads of the draft as of July 6th, 2018
▪ The Report will be published in October 2018.
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Focus on Developing Countries
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Countries/regions with most relevant cases to the Changing Nature of Work
Note: Top 10 most mentioned countries/regions in the 2019 WDR
India-55
China-46
Kenya-31
Mexico-23 Vietnam-21
Sub-Saharan Africa-20
Brazil-20
South Africa-20
United States-20
Bangladesh-18
Advanced and Socioemotional Skills Are Becoming More Important
Source: Authors’ analyses based on Wenhui News and career website.
Technology Is Disrupting the Nature of Firms
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Source: Author’s calculation, based on data from NASDAQ, AirBnb, Marriot International Inc., Financial Times.
New Superstar Firms: digital platforms operating globally, existing in the cloud
Industrial Jobs Are Falling in the West, Rising in the East
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Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Development Indicators.Note: “Rising East Asia” include Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Mongolia, Myanmar, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam
The Forces of Automation and Innovation Will Shape Future Employment
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• Automation causes the employment in old sectors to decline.
• Innovation causes new sectors or tasks to emerge.
Source: Authors’ analyses.
Irrespective of Technological Progress, Markets in Emerging Economies Remain Largely Informal
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Source: Authors’ calculations using household and labor force survey data from the International Income Distribution Database
Investing in Human Capital Is the Priority
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Source: Authors’ calculations
Argentina
Benin
China
Colombia
Côte d'Ivoire
India
Indonesia
Kenya
Malawi
Mexico
Morocco
Philippines
Russian Federation
Singapore
South Africa
ThailandTurkey
Vietnam
.2.4
.6.8
1
Pro
du
ctivity R
ela
tive
to
Be
nch
mark
6 8 10 12Log Real GDP Per Capita at PPP
Note: Data are preliminary and subject to revision.
Human Capital Index
WBG Human Capital Index measures the human capital that a child born today can expect to attain by the end of secondary school.
Human Capital Foundations, Created in Early Childhood, Are More Important Than Ever
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Children from disadvantaged background are least likely to attend early childhood
education programs
Source: Authors’ calculations based on data obtained from UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey.
Stronger Social Protection: Protect People, Not Jobs
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Source: Adapted from World Bank 2018c.
Social Inclusion Is Costly
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Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Bank World Development Indicators, World Bank PovcalNet, and United Nations World Population Prospects.
Simulated cost of UBI for closing the poverty gap by country income group (% of GDP)
Tax Revenues Have to Rise, Especially in Developing Economies
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Source: Authors’ calculations based on International Centre for Tax and Development (ICTD) and UNU-WIDER Government Revenue Dataset2017.
Countries Have Several Options for Generating Additional Fiscal Resources
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▪ Value-added tax
▪ Excise tax (tobacco, alcohol, sugar, soda tax)
▪ Carbon tax
▪ Corporate tax
▪ Taxing immovable property
▪ Eliminate fuel subsidies
▪ Reduce tax avoidance by multinationals and tax the digital economy
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http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2019