WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
1
WORLD DRUG WORLD DRUG REPORTREPORT
20042004
presented by
Thomas Pietschmann
UNODC, Research and Analysis Section
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
2
OVERVIEW:
ALL DRUGS
CONSUMPTION
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
3
180
144.1
24.214 13.5
185
146.2
29.68.3 13.3 15.2 9.24.5 9.2
4.7%
3.7%
0.7%
0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
0
40
80
120
160
200
All dru
gs
Canna
bisAm
phet
amin
es
Ecsta
sy
Cocain
e
Opia
tes
Heroin
mill
ion
peop
le
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
annu
al p
reva
lenc
e in
% o
f pop
ulat
ion
age
15-6
4
Drug us ers in the late 1990s (WDR 2000)
Drug us ers 2001-2003 (WDR 2004)
Estimates of annual prevalence of drug use at the global level in the late 1990s and in 2001-2003
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
4
11.2
59.1
204,000
4,907,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
illic it drugs (opiates ,cocaine, amphetamines )
tobaccom
illio
n D
AL
Ys
lost
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
sub
stan
ce a
bu
se r
elat
ed d
eath
s
Dis ability adjus ted life-years los t (left s cale)
Subs tance abus e related deaths (right s cale)
Substance abuse related deaths and Disability Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs) lost
Extent of illicit drug and tobacco use, 2001-2003 (or latest year available)
* Population age 15 and above
58
185 (4.2%*)
1270 (29%*)
0
500
1000
1500
illicit drugs tobacco
mill
ion
peop
le
tobaccoother illicit drugsopiates, cocaine, amphetamines
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
5
Changes in drug use as perceived by national experts, 1992-2002
0
1
2
3
4
9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1 0 2
Dru
g A
buse
Tre
nd In
dex
Cannabis consumption trend:
(Drug Abuse Trend Index)
0
1
2
3
4
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
Dru
g Ab
use
Tren
d In
dex
ATS consumption trend:
(Drug Abuse Trend Index)
0
10
20
30
40
50
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(net
-) n
umbe
r of c
ount
ries
Cocaine use trend: Number of countries reporting increases less number of
countries reporting declining levels of cocaine use
Heroin abuse trend: Number of countries reporting increases less number of
countries reporting declining levels of abuse
0
10
20
30
40
50
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(net
-) n
umbe
r of c
ount
ries
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
6
Drug abuse trends in 2001 and 2002: Number of countries reporting increases less number of countries reporting declines
46
28
17 17 16 15 1412
86
4 3 2 2 1 1 0
(1)
3836
30
14
21
25
2118
2219
5 53 2 1
3 4
0
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
Canna
bis he
rbCoc
aine
- typEcs
tasy
Benzo
diaze
pines
Canna
bis res
inAll o
piates
Crack c
ocain
eHero
inAmph
etamine
Metham
pheta
mineKha
tOpiu
mMorp
hine
Barbitu
rates
GHB
LSD
Other h
alluc
inoge
nsMeth
aqua
lone
Net results 2002 Net results 2001
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
7
Main problem drugs (as reflected in treatment demand), 1998-2002 (or latest year available)
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
8
Other7%
ATS8%
Cocaine3%
Opiates72%
Cannabis10%
Other10%
ATS10%
Cocaine4%
Opiates61%
Cannabis15%
EUROPE
Main problem drugs as reflected in treatment demand
1995-1998 (WDR 2000) 1998-2002 (WDR 2004)
Sources: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Data; Council of Europe (Pompidou Group).
Unweighted average of treatment demand of 30 European countries
Unweighted average of treatment demand of 33 Asian countries
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
9
USA - treatment admissions (excl. alcohol) by primary substance of abuse, 1992-2002
42.4%
22.5%
30.8%28.9%
26.4%
14.7%
3.5%
11.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002% o
f all
adm
issi
ons
(exc
l. al
coho
l)
Cocaine
Opiates
Marijuana
ATS
NORTH AMERICA – MAIN MARKET
Source: SAMHSA, Treatment Episode Dataset (TEDS), National Admissions to Substance Abuse Treatment Services, May 2004.
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
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WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
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WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
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OVERVIEW:
ALL DRUGS
TRAFFICKING
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
13
Global seizures in weight equivalents, 2000-2002
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
14
Importance of EU-25 for global drug seizures (2002) 68% 66%
21% 18%13%
3%7.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Canna
bis res
in
Ecstasy
Heroin
Ampheta
mines
Cocain
eCan
nabis h
erb
Popula
tion
prop
ortio
n
Importance of NAFTA (USA, Mexico, Canada) for global drug seizures (2002)
58%
32%
12% 7% 6% 6.8%0.1%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
Canna
b is herb
Cocaine
Ecstasy
Amphetamine
s
HeroinCan
nab is re
sinPopula
tion
prop
ortio
n
Patterns of main consumer markets (as reflected in seizure data)
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
15Source: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Data/ DELTA.
Trendaverage annual change in seizures, 1992-2002
2.2%
2.5%
4.9%
6.2%
6.9%
7.0%
7.4%
9.3%
10.1%
19.0%
20.4%
27.1%
-19.6%
-20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%
LSD*
Methaqualone
Cocaine
Cannabis resin
Opium
Cannabis plant
Heroin
Cannabis herb
Coca leaf
Morphine
Amphetamines
Depressants
Ecstasy*
* seizues in units
10-year trend: 1992-2002 (global level)
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
16
OPIUM / HEROIN
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
17
-6%
-40%
168,600180,200
142,100
222,000237,800
281,600
-29%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
18
-23%
-65%
-53%
Development of opium poppy cultivation in South-East Asia, 1990-2003
210,400
128,600 123,100
96,300
74,200
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
hect
ares
Myanmar Lao PDR Thailand Vietnam Trend
158,300
-23%
-53%
-65%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
19
76% of global
17% of global
3% of global
Global production in 2003:
4765 metric tons of opium (equivalent to 477 mt of
heroin)
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
20
Evolution of Afghan opium poppy cultivation since 2000
20002000 82,000 ha82,000 ha
20012001 8,000 ha8,000 ha
20022002 74,000 ha74,000 ha
20032003 80,000 ha 80,000 ha (+ 8%)(+ 8%)
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
21
Global illicit opium production, 1980-2003
4765
1600
44904690
57605620
3760
1460
1040
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
600019
8019
8119
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
03
met
ric to
ns
+6%
-17%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
22
510**
4770 (rounded )
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1907/08 2003
opiu
m p
rodu
ctio
n in
met
ric to
ns
Illicit opium productionLicit opium production
Tot a l: 5280 t ons (rounde d)
Tot a l: 30,000 t ons* (rounde d)
Opium production in 1907/1908* and 2003 (excl. poppy straw)
* Licit opium production in 1907/08: China: 22,200 tons, India 5,100 tons, Indochina 1200 tons, Persia 600 tons, Turkey 560 tons;
** Official forecast of licit production for 2003 by INCB; illicit production: UNODC/ICMP survey reports.
Sources: International Opium Commission, Shanghai 1909, INCB, 2003 Narcotic Drugs, New York 2004, UNODC/ICMP narcotic crops survey reports 2003/2004.
- 80%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
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WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
24
Heroin:
EU-15: 1.21 million or 0.48%
EU-25: 1.41 million or 0.46%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
25
Heroin:
EU-15: 1.21 million or 0.48%
EU-25: 1.41 million or 0.46%
EUROPE: 2.75 mio or 0.51%
Opiates:
EUROPE: 4.0 mio or 0.75%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
26
(10)
0
10
20
30
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
increasing lessdecliningtrends
increasing lessstable ordecliningtrends
Heroin abuse trend: No. of countries reporting increases less No. of countries
reporting declining / stable levels of heroin abuse
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
27
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
*20
02*
Num
ber
* preliminary results
0
1
2
3
4
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
drug
abu
se tr
end
inde
x
… stabilization/decline of heroin abuse in Western Europe …
Source: UNODC, ARQ. Sources: EMCDDA, Data Library and UNODC, ARQ.
Heroin consumption trend in Western Europe –
based on national experts perceptions
Acute drug related death in the EU-15, 1985-2002
(mostly related to abuse of heroin)
-18.5%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
28
… heroin shortage in Australia and its consequencesA us tra lia
he ro in a bus e : a nnua l pre v a le nc e
0.2%
0.4%
0.8%
0.2%
0 .0 %
0 .2 %
0 .4 %
0 .6 %
0 .8 %
1.0 %
199 3 19 9 5 19 9 8 2 0 0 1
Source: AIHW, Statistics on Drug Use in Australia 2002.
Australia: Rate of opiate overdose deaths among Australians aged 15-44 years, per million inhabitants
Crime trends in New South-Wales, Australia, July 1999-Dec. 2002
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Jul-99 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02
Bur
glar
ry c
ases
0
400
800
1200
1600
Rob
bery
cas
es
Burglary cases Robbery cases
heroin shortage
Source: Source: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, NSW Recorded Crime Statistics
Australia Proportion of adult males arrested in Parramatta (Sydney) and in other selected sites* across Australia testing positive for opiates
16%11%10%
46%
18%
30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Q31999
Q4 Q12000
Q2 Q32000
Q4 Q12001
Q2 Q32001
Q4 Q12002
Q2 Q32002
Q4
perc
ent t
estin
g po
sitiv
e
Parramatta(Sydney)
4-sitesaverage*
* unw eighted average of quarterly results from 4 sites: Parramatta (New South Wales), Bankstow n (NSW), Perth (Western Australia) and Southport (Queensland)
heroin drought
Source: Drug Use Monitoring in Australia (DUMA)
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
29
COCA/COCAINE
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
30
56% of total cultivation- 16%
29% of total cultivation– 5%
15% of total cultivation
2002: 173,100 ha
2003: 153,800 ha
Change: - 11%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
31
153,800
173,100
210,900
221,300220,600
190,800
-11%
-30%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
32
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
heca
tre
Coca cultivation Spraying and manual (voluntary) eradication
Coca bush cultivation in Colombia
-16%
-47%163,000160,100
144,800
102,000
86,000
101,800
79,400
67,200
50,90044,700
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
33
1999200020012002
Putumayo – Caqueta: Decreasing
Guaviare - Meta: Decreasing
Norte de Santander - Bolivar: Decreasing
Nariño: Increasing
2003Colombia: Regional trends1999 - 2003
1999 21,000 ha2003 9,000 ha (- 57 %)
1999 40,000 ha2003 29,000 ha (- 27%)
1999 4,000 ha2003 17,600 ha (+345%)
1999 82,000 ha2003 14,800 ha (-82%)
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
34
Potential illicit cocaine production 1980-2003
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
met
ric to
ns
Lowest level of cocaine production
since 1989Cocaine production level in 2003
655
950-31%
-18%800
67%
9%
24%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
35
31%
48%
13%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
36
Cocaine:
EU-15: 2.9 million or 1.15%
EU-25: 3.0 million or 0.98%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
37
0.2%(2000)Cocaine:
EU-15: 2.9 million or 1.15%
EU-25: 3.0 million or 1.0%
EUROPE: 3.3 mio or 0.6%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
38
4.8%
of
-23%
-63%
of0
10
20
30
40
50
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
(net
-) n
umbe
r of c
ount
ries
Cocaine use trend: No. of countries reporting increases less No. of
countries reporting declining levels of cocaine use
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
39
Germany Annual prevalence of cocaine use among 18-59 year olds and
number of newly identified cocaine users
0.8%0.9%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.1%an
nual
pre
vale
nce
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
num
ber o
f new
ly re
gist
ered
us
ers
Annual prevalence
New users
Annua l pre va le nce 0.3% 0.8% 0.9%
Ne w use rs 567 684 832 1760 2438 2308 2467 2600 3234 4307 4251 3930 5,144 5691 5662 5327 4872.0 4933 4346
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990* 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
* Tentative estimate for Germany as a w hole (West-Germany, 12-39 years old: 0.4% in 1990).
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
40
AMPHETAMINE-TYPE STIMULANTS
(ATS)• METHAMPHETAMINE• AMPHETAMINE• ECSTASY
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
41
Trends in production / trafficking in ATS
Seizures of amphetamine-type stimulants 1980-2002
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
kilo
gram
equ
ival
ents
MDMA ('Ecstasy)', MDA, MDME and otherhallucinogens excl. LSD
Methamphetamine, amphetamine,methcathinone and other syntheticstimulants
Detection of clandestine laboratories at the global level, 1990-2002
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Num
ber o
f dis
man
tled
labo
rato
ries ATS Other
83% of dismantled laboratories
18%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
42
Origin of methamphetamine in 2002
in South-East Asia:
• Myanmar
• China
• Philippines
in North America:
• USA
• Mexico
Origin of ecstasy in 2002
Main sources of ATS
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
43
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
44
Amphetamines
EU-15: 1.7 million or 0.65%
EU-25: 2.0 million or 0.66%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
45
Amphetamines
EU-15: 1.7 million or 0.65%
EU-25: 2.0 million or 0.66%
EUROPE: 2.4 mio or 0.4%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
46
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
47
Ecstasy:
EU-15: 2.3 million or 0.91%
EU-25: 2.7 million or 0.87%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
48
Ecstasy:
EU-15: 2.3 million or 0.91%
EU-25: 2.7 million or 0.87%
EUROPE: 3 mio or 0.6%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
49
Amphetamines consumption trends in 2001 and 2002
15%
53%
32%
37%
53%
21%
45%
34%
39%
50%
9%
11%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
decline
stable
increase
in % of countries reporting on specific ATS
2001 Amphetamine
2002 Amphetamine
2001Methamphetamine
2002Methamphetamine
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
50
… signs of stabilization/decline of amphetamines use in Western Europe
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
51
Global ecstasy consumption trends, 2001 (n = 56)
some increase
36%
stable25%
some decline
5%
large increase
29%
large decline
5%
Global ecstasy consumption trends, 2002 (n = 53)
large decline
4%
large increase
2%some
decline13%
stable34%
some increase
47%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
52
CANNABIS
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
53
Tentative estimates of cannabis herb production and trends
32,000
Cannabis production: > 140 countries
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
54
Tentative estimate of cannabis resin production and main source countries
7,400 metric tons
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
55
66% 2001/02
23% 2001/02
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
56
68% in 2002
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
57
Cannabis:
EU-15: 19.1 million or 7.5%
EU-25: 21.1 million or 6.9%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
58
Cannabis:
EU-15: 19.1 million or 7.5%
EU-25: 21.1 million or 6.9%
EUROPE: 28.8 mio or 5.3%
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
59
0
1
2
3
4
91 92 9 3 9 4 95 9 6 97 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1 02
Dru
g A
buse
Tre
nd In
dex
Cannabis consumption trend:Based on national experts’ perceptions
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
60
0.0%
0.3%
0.6%
0.9%
1.2%
1.5%
1.8%
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Ann
ual p
reva
lenc
e am
ong
12th
gra
ders
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Inci
denc
e am
ong
the
gene
ral
popu
latio
n
Incidence of cannabis use among the general population age 12 and aboveAnnual prevalence of cannabis use among 12th gradersAnnual prevalence of all drug use among 12th graders Trend - incidence
NORTH AMERICA: Trends of incidence and prevalence of drug use in the USA, 1965-2003
Sources: NIDA, Monitoring the Future and SAMHSA, 2002 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, Sept. 2003.
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
61
Summary of data on extent and trends of the drug problem
• long-term decline in opiate production/consumption (80% less than at the beginning of 20th century); opium production in South-East Asia fell by more than 50% between 1990 and 2003. Consumption stable in Western Europe and North America; stabilization (or reduced increases) reported from C.I.S. countries in 2002; reductions reported from several South-East Asian countries and Australia. Main problem: opium production in Afghanistan; further increases expected for 2004;
• less than 5% of the youth & adult population use drugs (about ½% use heroin or cocaine, the two main problem drugs); close to 30% smoke tobacco;
• global cocaine production fell by 30% between 1999 and 2003, and by 18% between 2002 and 2003; mainly due to strengthened control efforts in Colombia; US student surveys show decline in cocaine use of 23% between 1999 and 2003 and more than 60% between 1985 and 2003; however, increases in South America and Europe; but peak in some West European countries may have been reached;• global cannabis production appears to have increased over the last decade and is now back to the levels of the late 1980s; UNODC’s Drug Abuse Trend Index showed an increase over the last decade and an acceleration of the upward trend over the 2000-2002 period. Trend data suggest ongoing increases in Europe, South America, Africa and in a number of countries in Asia. The market seems to have stabilized, in contrast, in North America, Oceania and some countries of South-East Asia; • global ATS production and consumption increased over the last decade. (Laboratory detections, seizures and UNODC’s Drug Abuse Trend Index point in this direction). Following massive increases of seizures in the 1990s, ATS seizures declined, however, over the 2000-2002 period. Increases in the use of ATS continued being reported from a number of countries in South-East Asia, but markets of Western Europe and North America remained largely stable in 2002. Ecstasy continued rising in several developing countries but stabilized in several West European countries and declined in the USA and Canada in 2002/2003.
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
62
POLICY
Governments are committed to the multilateral drug control system and its objectives
• the UNGASS objectives
Conceptual advances offer prospects of better results • balanced approach
• shared responsibility
• society-wide approach
• sustainable development context
• integrated approach (the drugs and crime nexus, the new crime conventions)
• dynamic approach (better understanding drug markets and drug epidemics)
WORLD DRUG REPORT 2004
63
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20042004