20
© OECD/IEA 2011 World Energy Outlook 2011
© OECD/IEA 2011
World Energy Outlook 2011
© OECD/IEA 2011
The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends
Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy and limited the means of intervention
Post-Fukushima, nuclear is facing uncertainty
MENA turmoil raised questions about region’s investment plans
Some key trends are pointing in worrying directions:
CO2 emissions rebounded to a record high
energy efficiency of global economy worsened for 2nd straight year
spending on oil imports is near record highs
© OECD/IEA 2011
Emerging economies continue to drive global energy demand
Growth in primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario
Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035, with China & India accounting for 50% of the growth
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Mto
e
China
India
Other developing Asia
Russia
Middle East
Rest of world
OECD
© OECD/IEA 2011
Coal won the energy race in the first decade of the 21st century
Growth in global energy demand, 2000-2010
Coal accounted for nearly half of the increase in global energy use over the past decade, with the bulk of the growth coming from the power sector in emerging economies
Nuclear
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
Coal
Mto
e
Total non-coal
Natural gas
Oil
Renewables
© OECD/IEA 2011
Natural gas & renewables become increasingly important
Renewables & natural gas collectively meet almost two-thirds of incremental energy demand in 2010-2035
Additional to 2035
2010
World primary energy demand
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
Oil Coal Gas Renewables Nuclear
Mto
e
© OECD/IEA 2011
Meeting the 2⁰C goal requires a rapid shift away from fossil fuels
World primary energy demand by fuel & scenario
Consumption of coal unsurprisingly falls most in favour of more nuclear & renewables, but the scope of cutting oil use is limited by a lack of commercially viable substitutes
2009
2035: New Policies Scenario
2035: 450 Scenario
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass & waste
Other renewables
Mto
e
© OECD/IEA 2011
Less nuclear means more of everything else
The biggest chunk of the lost nuclear generation is replaced by power generation from coal, leading to a 6% increase in CO2 emissions in the power sector
Power generation by fuel in the New Policies Scenario and Low Nuclear Case
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
Nuclear Coal Gas Renewables
TWh
2009
2035: New Policies Scenario
2035: Low Nuclear Case
© OECD/IEA 2011
Golden prospects for natural gas
Largest natural gas producers in 2035
Unconventional natural gas supplies 40% of the 1.7 tcm increase in global supply, but best practices are essential to successfully address environmental challenges
0 200 400 600 800 1 000
Norway
India
Australia
Algeria
Canada
Qatar
Iran
China
United States
Russia
bcm
Conventional
Unconventional
© OECD/IEA 2011
Natural gas demand growth comes from China, Middle East, India
Natural gas demand by selected region in the New Policies Scenario, 2009 and 2035
Gas demand grows fastest in the non-OECD regions, led by China, which accounts for more than a quarter of the worldwide increase in demand between 2009 & 2035
2009
Additional to 2035
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
North
America
European
Union
Middle
East
Russia China India Japan
bcm
© OECD/IEA 2011
Power will be the main driver of demand in most regions
Incremental primary natural gas demand by region and sector in the New Policies Scenario, 2009-2035
Power generation accounts for over 41% of the increase in global gas demand between 2009 & 2035, as gas is increasingly favoured over coal &, in some cases, nuclear
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
OECD Asia Oceania
Africa
Latin America
India
OECD Europe
OECD Americas
Other Asia
E. Europe/Eurasia
Middle East
China
bcm
Power generation
Other energy sector
Industry
Buildings
Other
© OECD/IEA 2011
Power investment focuses on low-carbon technologies
Share of new power generation and investment, 2011-2035
Renewables are often capital-intensive, representing 60% of investment for 30% of additional generation, but bring environmental benefits & have minimal fuel costs
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar PV
Generation
Investment
© OECD/IEA 2011
The overall value of subsidies to renewables is set to rise
Renewable subsidies of $66 billion in 2010 (compared with $409 billion for fossil fuels), need to climb to $250 billion in 2035 as rising deployment outweighs improved competitiveness
Biofuels
Electricity
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Bill
ion
do
llars
(2
01
0)
© OECD/IEA 2011
EU moving towards cleaner forms of electricity generation
Wind spearheads the low-carbon contribution to the EU electricity sector: the share of generation from low-carbon technologies rises to two-thirds in 2035
Electricity generation from low-carbon sources in the European Union in the New Policies Scenario
Additional to 2035
2009
0 Nuclear Hydro Wind Biomass Solar
PV Other CCS
TWh
0%
200
400
600
800
1 000
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Low carbon
Shar
e o
f el
ectr
icit
y ge
ner
atio
n
© OECD/IEA 2011
Inter-regional gas trade booms
Net gas trade by major region in the New Policies Scenario
Gas trade doubles from 590 bcm in 2009 to almost 1 200 bcm in 2035, with China’s imports increasing the most
-500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 bcm
2035
2009
Importers Exporters
E.Europe/Eurasia
Africa
Middle East
OECD Oceania
Latin America
OECD Americas
India
OECD Asia
China
OECD Europe
© OECD/IEA 2011
Russian gas output and exports are poised for further growth
Output increases from 637 bcm in 2010 to 860 bcm in 2035, although the next generation of Russian gas production is higher-cost, more difficult technically and often even more remote
Russia’s natural gas balance in the New Policies Scenario
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
bcm
Net exports
Production
Consumption
© OECD/IEA 2011
Not far to look for the next generation of Russian oil and gas fields
The bulk of Russia’s resources are in the core producing region of Western Siberia, but East Siberia, the Caspian, the Barents and other Arctic seas are also very promising
Conventional oil and gas resources in various Russian regions, end-2010
Caspian Volga Urals
Timan Pechora
Barents Sea
Western Siberia
Eastern Siberia
Other offshore
Arctic
Sakhalin Others -120
-60
0
60
120
180
240
bill
ion
bar
rels
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
trill
ion
cu
bic
met
res
Cumulative production
Remaining recoverable resources
Oil (left axis)
Cumulative production
Remaining recoverable resources
Gas (right axis)
© OECD/IEA 2011
Russia set for greater diversity of gas export markets
Net gas exports rise substantially from 190 bcm in 2010 to close to 330 bcm in 2035, bolstered by an expansion of gas trade links with China
© OECD/IEA 2011
Russia remains a cornerstone of the global energy economy
Russian revenue from fossil fuel exports
An increasing share of Russian exports go eastwards to Asia, providing Russia with diversity of markets and revenues
2010 $255 billion
61% 16%
21%
2035 $420 billion
48%
European Union
17%
Other
20% China
15%
Other Europe
European Union Other
Europe
China 2%
Other
© OECD/IEA 2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2020 2025 2030 2035
Delay until 2017
Delay until 2015
2015
Emissions from existing infrastructure
The door to 2°C is closing, but will we be “locked-in” ?
Without further action, by 2017 all CO2 emissions permitted in the 450 Scenario will be “locked-in” by existing power plants, factories, buildings, etc
45
6°C trajectory
2°C trajectory
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
(gig
ato
nn
es)
© OECD/IEA 2011
If we don’t change direction soon, we’ll end up where we’re heading
In a world full of uncertainty, one thing is sure: rising incomes & population will push energy needs higher
Oil supply diversity is diminishing, while new options are opening up for natural gas
Coal – the “forgotten fuel” – has underpinned growth, but its future will be shaped by uptake of efficient power plants & CCS
Power sector investment will become increasingly capital intensive with the rising share of renewables
The world needs Russian energy, while Russia needs to use less
Despite steps in the right direction, the door to 2°C is closing
