2015

ISSUES AND CHALLENGES OF ISLAND ENVIRONMENT

Dr. S. Dam RoyDirector, ICAR-CIARI

“Climate Change = The change in average conditions of a particular place over a long period of time. (We usually link ‘climate change’ to rising temperatures but this is NOT the full story).

What is Climate change?? …

HINT: Climate is what you expect, Weather is what you get!

Everyone has heard the phrase, but what does it actually mean?

Climate Change vs Global Warming

Global warming refers to the rise in average surface temperature of the earth.

Climate change refers to all changing factors of Earth’s climate including temperature, rain, wind and humidity. Temperature is not the only thing that is changing and it is not just getting hotter.

“Use of energy in New York can affect the life of birds in the Harren Island on the Great Barrier Reef in Australia”

“Climate change has taught us how closely the world is connected”

“The contribution of Islands to Climate Change is insignificant (0.03%)but they stand first in facing the brunt of Climate Change….”

Interesting revelations on climate change…

According to the IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.

Increasing temperature trend..

Increasing global sea level rise trend..

Islands will experience the first effect of sea level rise

Islands like Car Nicobar, Chowra are most vulnerable

Though the effect may not be immediate it will surely influence the livelihood in future

Shift of SST in India- A Scenario

Ocean Acidification…An another concern for Marine ecosystems..

Some of the excess CO2 in the atmosphere is also being dissolved into the ocean. This is causing the water to become more acidic.

This is bad news for marine ecosystems, especially to coral reefs, fish, marine mammals and other animals who call the ocean their home. It is also bad news for those who rely on fishing for their businesses or as a source of food.

Changes in temperature

Changes in pH in the

environment

Acid rain

Changes Ammonia level

Thermal stress pH stress

Multiple stress (Thermal + pH)

Bio-molecular changes

Growth reduction & Mortality

Organic decomposition

Climate change

Importance of climate change and associated effects

Integrated Assessment Model for Climate Change on Ecosystem

•Temperature variation•Sea level rise•Changes in rain pattern•Depletion of Oxygen•Droughts and floods

CLIMATE CHANGEClimate change

impacts on ecosystem • Distribution Pattern• Species Extinction.• Disease Susceptibility• Livelihood

•Migration to comfortable zone•Maturation & Breeding Cycle•Embryonic development•Hypoxia•Changes at Organism, cellular, molecular & organelles level

Physiological Impact

• Local Adaptation

• Advance information & planning

• Reduction in Anthropogenic emissions

• Biotechnological & genetic manipulation

• Dietary manipulation (Neutracueticals)

Mitigation Measures

MITIGATION

EnvironmentalImpacts

ADAPTATION•Income

•Employment

•Malnutrition

•Reduction in ancillary activity

Socio-Economic ImpactSocietal

adaptation

Physiological adaptation

Interactions with Multiple Stressors

Species Extinction

Failure

Climate induced in marine ecosystems…

Temperature & Sea

level

Salinity, pH, Currents

Nutrients

Oxygen

Ice cover

Turbulence & mixing

Wind - Speed &

Direction

Storm

-Frequency/intensity

Evaporation

Precipitation & Runoff

Species distribution

Reproduction & Recruitment

migration, abundance

Physiology & Behaviour

Sex ratios

Calcification rates

Upwelling

Coastal habitat loss

Coral bleaching frequency & severity

Disease Incidence

Algal blooms

Productivity

Distribution

Species availability

Days at sea

Accidents

Loss of harbour/ homes

Damage to assets

High insurance costs

Livelihood diversification

Difficulty in seasonal livelihood activities

Physical Ecological Fisheries

Consequences of climate change…

● Increase in air temperature

● Increase in sea surface temperature (SST)

● Increase in sea-level

● Increase in CO2 in atmosphere and water

● Changes in rainfall/ extreme rainfall events

● More extreme weather conditions- more number of cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons

Some Negative Consequences of climate change…

• In Asia alone more than a billion people will be affected by water shortage by 2050.

• Changes to India's annual monsoon are expected to result in severe droughts and intense flooding in parts of India.

• With more than 60% of agriculture dependent on rain-fed crops, even modest alteration in the intensity, frequency and timing of rainfall should cause a large negative impact on food production.

• Increase in water borne diseases such as cholera and hepatitis, as well as diseases carried by insects such as malaria.

• Climate change is expected to contribute to air quality problems and respiratory disorders will increase due to warming-induced increases in the frequency of smog.

Why our Islands are significant in CC context…

• Limited physical size in case of Nicobar Islands: Makes coastal retreat impossible where entire islands may be inundated

• Relative isolation

• Limited natural resources and over exploitation

• Import dependence on external markets

• Intra- and inter-island migration

• Growing urbanization: e.g. degrading natural sea defenses

• Poorly infrastructure, Limited funds and human resource skills severely limits the capacity to adapt

Important events concerning Islands …

2007 2007 2012 2017Tsunami

Major destruction in Andaman and Nicobar Islands

Land subduction

Inundation of sea water in agri fields

2002

Mass bleaching of corals in Andaman

60-70% of live corals damaged

X PLAN

Over past decade the Islands have witnessed significant events concerning

climate change and meteorological parameters

Major dry season incidence

Reduced rainfall

Major cyclone incidences

Climate change vis-a –vis Andamans …

Andaman Group of Islands• Mountainous volcanic islands

• Threats due to sea-level rise is NOT severe

• But there is threat to livelihood due to loss of key habitats

Nicobar Group of Islands• Coral Islands: Mostly flat topography

• Rise in sea-level would mean higher tides/storm surges

• Extreme climates may affect the freshwater supply

• Threats to livelihood due to loss of land, key habitats

Climate change vis-a –vis Andamans …

Three pillars of Economy

● Tourism

● Fisheries

● Agriculture

Coastal Habitats affecting Tourism and fisheries

Due to the elevated SST and subsequent mass bleaching in 2010, 60-70% of corals have been destroyed in Andaman

Bleaching of corals in Andaman waters…

May 2010

Aug 2010Damage to corals due to Myanmar Storm, May 2011

Mangroves and its importance…

• All social and ecological value depending on Mangroves will be affected.

• Income of fishermen will be drastically affected.

• Commercial fisheries related to Mangrove ecosystem will be affected.

• Loss of habitat for a number of molluscs, birds, insects, crustaceans, monkeys, and reptiles.

• Mangrove destruction will affect coastal development and human safety.

Influence on Marine Fisheries….

• Loss of corals and mangrove ecosystems would result in reduction in recruitment of fishes and thus productivity.

• Increased temperature reduces dissolved oxygen and also leads to harmful algal blooms : Mass mortality of fish

• Climate change alters local ecosystems – competitors and predators

• Increases risk involved in fishing (due to storms/cyclones)

• Loss of fishing infrastructure

Chowra is the most vulnerable island to climate-associated disasters

Agricultural Vulnerability map prepared based on multiple parameters showed that about 20% of the area in Car Nicobar has high vulnerability to climate change

1. Corals in Indian Seas bleached during 1998, 2002 and 2010 due to high seawater temperature.

2. Considering the threshold temperature of bleaching; and how many times the threshold will be exceeded in this century, the number of bleaching events until 2100 was predicted.

3. It appears that coral bleaching may be an annual event from the year 2020.

Coral Demise Model Predictions…

RegionRegion Decade at which Decade at which corals begin to corals begin to declinedecline

Decade at Decade at which corals which corals would be would be remnantremnant

AndamanAndaman 2030 - 20402030 - 2040 2050 - 20602050 - 2060

NicobarNicobar 2020 - 20302020 - 2030 2050 - 20602050 - 2060

LakshadLakshadweepweep

2020 - 20302020 - 2030 2030 - 20402030 - 2040

Gulf of Gulf of MannarMannar

2030 - 20402030 - 2040 2050 - 20602050 - 2060

Gulf of Gulf of KachchhKachchh

2030 - 20402030 - 2040 2060 - 20702060 - 2070

Predicted demise of Indian corals

Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries…

Bangladesh Myanmar Thailand

Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries…

A Least Developed Country with an Unstable political environment

Donors don’t trust govt and hence no funds flow

Poor response from Govt. to deal with climate change

Unprotected coasts

Witnessing adverse climate changes (Frequent floods/Cyclones) almost every year during last three decades.

Burma

Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries…

1% of the world’s tropical storms hit Bangladesh.

More than 36% of the people live below poverty line.

Per capita income is US $370, emphasizing the economic depression.

Climate models estimate a constant increase of temperature in Bangladesh and vulnerability to water related diseases.

Bangladesh

Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries…

• Low level lands, occupying 80% of the country – they are disaster prone.

• About 10% of the country is hardly 1 m above the mean sea level.

• Higher population density (>1209 persons per km2; 133 million people) limits the migration within the country.

Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries…

Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries…

1. Coastal regions of Thailand are extremely vulnerable to climate changes.

2. Coastal erosion, altered wetlands, frequent floods are some of the observed impacts of climate change.

3. Most of the population reside in proximity to the oceans.

4. Landslides pose a serious threat to these coastal villages.

Thailand

How nearby countries influence our security …

• Displaced people may move to our islands. As the population is ethnically similar to our population it is difficult to identify them. These will be potential security risk

• Loss of livelihood of this huge population may lead to poaching in our seas.

• This can also lead to their taking up drug trafficking, gun running using our sea routes at the behest of bigger player antagonistic to our interests

Climate Change will surely Influence …

• Tourism

• Food security

• Infrastructure

• Economic and Financial Impacts

• Coastal and Marine resources

• Water resources

• Health

Key message: Adaptation is a ‘no regrets’ strategy with immediate

benefits

Adaptation is an opportunity to improve:

• natural resource management and physical planning

• ability to deal with the natural hazards as well as the growing human-induced stresses on the environment.

• Adaptive responses can be:– Technological (e.g. improving coastal defences)– Managerial (e.g. introducing crop rotation)– Policy-based (e.g. strengthening planning regulations) – Behavioural (e.g. preparing one’s home for a hurricane)

Key message: Good climate policy should adapt and mitigate.

Reactions….