World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

WMO Environmental Emergency Response

WMO support to nuclear emergency fromthe Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident, following the

Earthquake (M9.0) and Tsunami (14+m) 11 March 2011

Geoff Love and Peter Chen

Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department

WMO Secretariat

13 July 2011

www.wmo.int

WMO

Lessons from responding to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi

Nuclear Power Stations

Adapted from presentation by Dr Geoffrey LoveDirector, Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services

Delivered to IAEA Ministerial Conference keynote address on Emergency Preparedness and Response

Vienna, 20 – 24 June 2011

WMO

1979 - TMI

1986 - Chernobyl

2011 - Fukushima Daiichi

Relevant roles of National Meteorological Services (NMSs)

• Numerical simulation of atmospheric transport and dispersion - modelling technology to support environmental emergency response;

• Dependent on, integrated with operational Numerical Weather Prediction system infrastructure at global and regional centres;

• 24/7/365 operational commitment of designated regional specialized meteorological centres (RSMC);

• Operational standards, procedures; • Regular exercise and testing;

WMO EER Activities: Nuclear accidents and radiological emergency

response

Montreal, Canada

Washington DC, USA

Exeter, UK

Toulouse, France

Obninsk, Russian Federation

Beijing, China

Tokyo, Japan

Melbourne, Australia•WMO’s 8 Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) for Atmospheric transport modelling •RTH Offenbach – IAEA notification to WMO via GTS

EER Operations

Concept of Operations: IAEA - WMO Notification and WMO RSMC

services (IAEA EPR-JPLAN 2010)

The Earthquake occurred at 05.46 UTC, Friday, 11th of March 2011, and at 09.39 UTC the WMO EER System was first requested to provide advice to designated authorities on the likely evolution of the radioactive cloud that was being accidentally released from the Fukushima Daiichi power plant.Within few hours the first dispersion charts were available, and were produced routinely until no longer required.

EER System Performance

Lesson #1EER System worked well

The EER dispersion charts are based on having:

• A well validated model• Accurate winds to start with and high

quality wind forecasts to calculate likely future cloud dispersion

• Good forecasts of rainfall through the forecast period and realistic “washout” processes in the model

• Realistic settling rates for the radioactive material

• Realistic radioactive decay rates

Lesson #2Default release when source term/sequence is unknown

The Source Term (from instructions to EER Centres):

Default values to be used in response to a request for products for the unspecified source parameters

•Uniform vertical distribution up to 500 m above the ground;•Uniform emission rate during six hours;•Starting date/time: date/time specified at ‘START OF RELEASE’ on request form or, if not available, then the ‘Date/Time of Request’ specified at the top of the request form;•Total pollutant release 1 Bq (Becquerel) over 6 hours;•Type of radionuclide Cs-137.

Lesson #3Understanding the source sequence

From the New York Times (18 April, 2011) – a publicly available view of the time history of the source term (published 5 weeks after the commencement of the nuclear emergency)

Total estimated release – officially published 13 April 2011

Lesson #4Monitoring at the NPP for EPR

•Adequate, robust with failsafe, monitoring systems should be located around each nuclear power station such that the source term is known accurately and quickly – why?

•Right to know•Protective actions •Regulatory requirements

•National vs Global/Regional needs for accurate information

General PublicGeneral Public

Food and AgricultureFood and Agriculture

TransportationTransportation

Basic set of productsFive maps consisting of:•Three‑dimensional trajectories starting at 500, 1500 and 3000 m above the ground, with particle locations at 6h intervals (main synoptic hours up to the end of the dispersion model forecast);•Time‑integrated air borne concentrations in Bq.s m‑3 within the layer 500 m above the ground, for each of the three forecast periods;•Total deposition (wet + dry) in Bq m‑2 from the release time to the end of the dispersion model forecast.  A joint statement that will be issued as soon as available (QA)

Lesson #5 Lesson #5 Standard products are Standard products are pre-determinedpre-determined

Analyses and hindcasts are importantLesson #6Lesson #6

• Use analyzed wind fields not forecast wind fields

• Use observed rainfall not forecast rainfall

• Use a realistic, time dependent source term/emission sequence

• Validate using available observations of fallout and atmospheric concentrations at available measuring sites

• Scale dependency

Measured deposition Cs-134 & 137, 16-28 May 2011by MEXT and US DOE (Japan report, 16 June 2011)

Understanding the depositionpattern, with detailed meteorological data and analyses•wind, dispersion •rain and snowfall

Lesson #7Knowing where radioactive particles settle is important

Lesson #8 Public Information

The tools exist, in the public domain to reproduce the EER products, albeit without the products that result having sufficient “metadata” attached to truly assess their utility.

The public demand for information is intense. - and even if the metadata were there, could the public make informed assessments and decisions?

The coordination of advice to governments is difficult enough, under the pressure of an ongoing emergency coordinating information to the publics in a number of countries, across language barriers is truly very difficult – but critical if governments wish to maintain the confidence of their publics.

Lesson #9 Meteorology and Hydrology in Nuclear Safety

Siting of Nuclear Power Plants•Standard procedures and guidelines urgently need to be updated for assessing all geophysical hazards, along with other hazards, for existing and proposed nuclear power stations;

•They should include adapting to climate change among the many considerations;

•They must be multi-disciplinary in the broadest sense.

The Way Forward

• Review all aspects of the WMO EER system

• Update the products to reflect current S&T capabilities

• Work with the power station industry and CTBTO to make source term / source sequence data available as soon as possible

• Work within the UN-System to find more efficient ways of developing joint statements that inform all those potentially affected by the disaster – embed these “ways” into operational procedures and test them routinely

• Use the routine tests to bring together organizations (including the media) and governments into cooperative alliances

A real emergency – not business as usual

UN Scientific Committee on Effects of Atomic Radiation

(UNSCEAR) - Study for Fukushima Daiichi accident

UNSCEAR: United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation Secretariat Fukushima assessmentUNSCEAR/58/7 (Attachment 3/Rev.2)

“UNSCEAR had the remit and would be expected to produce a scientific report to the General Assembly on the levels and effects of radiation exposure. Accordingly the Chair of UNSCEAR requested the Secretary to foster the development of a proposal on this subject…………”

UNSCEAR

Data required as basis for the UNSCEAR report on the levels and effects of radiation exposure as a consequence of the Fukushima accident

Source term:− What is the amount and nature of radioactive material released to theenvironment? How much to air? How much to sea?− What radionuclides were released?

− What was the time profile? − …………………………..

− ………………………….. •Meteorological data (numerical weather prediction data – i.e. three dimensional gridded spatial and temporal information - validated/corrected with observations, for all of Japan) for the duration of the release and subsequent air circulation time•Precipitation data (locations, intensity, duration and type – rain, snow – of precipitation)•Topography (no time dependency required)•Data required for dispersion modelling in the sea •Nuclide-specific activity concentration in air (for the duration of the release and subsequent air circulation time)

•Nuclide-specific deposition to the ground •……………

• Still a ‘General Emergency’ but stabilized• RSMCs on full alert and preparedness • UN System-wide study on implications• WMO to review nuclear EER procedures and

standards• WMO to continue cooperating with IAEA on Nuclear

Safety standards and WMO technical guidance• WMO (including CBS) to work with the UN Scientific

Committee on Effects of Atomic Radiation (Study for Fukushima Daiichi accident)

Current Situation