#MIGlobal
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Ind. Atl. Basin Japan/ANZ Asia
S. America Africa/Middle East FSU/E. Eur.
MB/D Year-on-Year Changes
1.0
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.01.2
1.4(0.3) (0.6)
3.2
0.7
1.3
1.3
World oil demand growth2005 - 2017
#MIGlobal
Global Oil Demand (MMB/D)
Personal Transport
(25%)
Commercial Transport
(22%)
Air (6%)
Marine (6%)
Petchem/Non-Energy (17%)
Industrial (11%)
Res/Com (8%)
Power Gen (5%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2016
Transport
Sector
Demand
(59%)
Global oil demand by sector
#MIGlobal
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Millions
US
Europe
China
ROW
EV sales accelerating
#MIGlobal
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Sales Fleet Registrations
Millions of Vehicles
Conventional
Electric Vehicles
But perspective required2016 global estimates
#MIGlobal
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
EV penetration scenarios
PIRA Reference Miles
100% Sales Case (Miles)
Reference Case
100% Case
EV Fraction of New Car Sales in the US Fleet
EV Fraction of Miles Driven
#MIGlobal
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Stationary Road transport Air & marinetransport
Petchem +
MMBD/YR
1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015
2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035
Oil demand growth increasingly dominated by non-energy useGrowth by end-use sector
#MIGlobal
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Coal
Industrialized Developing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Gas
Industrialized Developing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Oil
Industrialized Developing
The end of fossil fuel growth?Beyond 2035
#MIGlobal
• Global energy use: Most
energy comes from the same
sources
• Currently utilized: oil, natural
gas, coal.
Global energy demand growthNo additional policy after COP-21 targets
Source: Sergey Paltsev, MIT Join Program, 2015 Outlook.
#MIGlobal
Developed Other G20
Africa Rest of World
Energy use by region
Source: Sergey Paltsev, MIT Join Program.
#MIGlobal
• The US is now the
world’s leading oil and
natural gas producer,
and will play a growing
role as an energy
exporter over medium
term - That this is the
case is one of the most
unexpected dynamics
ever witnessed in the
energy sector
Bcf of gas per day
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Marcellus
Woodford
Haynesville
Fayetteville
Barnett
Today, new shale plays
supports 60% of US gas
productionThe
Marcellus
Shale
alone now
produces
more 6.5
Tcf per yr
of gas.
More than
Canada,
Iran or
Qatar
Illustration of gas production growth from the main U.S. shale plays since 2005
Source: F. O’Sullivan, United States Energy Information Administration, HPDI Production Database.
#MIGlobal
• Improving economics
means a much bigger
role for wind and solar
going forward – This
also means a much more
distributed generation
base and greater
complexity in system
management and
optimization
642
323
322
1287
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
2015 2021
New Solar
New Wind
Projected global wind and solar PV capacity additions to 2021GW
Utility
Scale
C&I
Scale
Residential
Scale
Source: International Energy Agency, European Photovoltaics Association.
#MIGlobal
• In competitive power markets,
increased solar PV
penetration will reduce the
average price that PV and
other generators receive –
This raises real questions
regarding how generation
capacity will be compensated in
the future
60
20
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
0 366 12 18 24 30
$/MWh
Solar Penetration
(% Peak Demand)
How the price a solar generator receives for its output can fall well below the
average market price as solar penetration increases
Source: MIT Analysis.
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24 hour day
INCREASED RAMPING
RATE REQUIRED
ELECTRICITY
DEMAND
PEAK NON-PV
GENERATION
• Additionally, as PV
penetration rises it
results in some
challenges for grid
operation, particularly
regarding capacity and
ramping – This may
mean that the future
success of PV will be
dependent on storage
Simulated net demand for non-PV generation at different levels of PV penetrationERCOT (Texas) typical summer day
Source: MIT Analysis.
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SOLAR ENERGY:
MIT Professor Vladimir Bulovic
Developing ultrathin, flexible
solar cells that could fit on
almost any surface, with
potential applications in
developed and developing
countries.
Supported by Eni through the Eni-MIT
Solar Frontiers Center, and through the
National Science Foundation.
#MIGlobal
ENERGY STORAGE:
MIT Professor Donald
Sadoway
Pioneering a liquid metal
battery with early support
from MITEI’s Seed Fund.
#MIGlobal
FUSION:
Advancing fundamental
research and overcoming
technological challenges to
achieve practical, scalable
fusion power.
#MIGlobal
WATER DESALINATION FOR
THE DEVELOPING WORLD:
“With our off-grid system for
water desalination, we can
potentially provide about 250
million people in India who
currently drink salty
groundwater a safe and
affordable source of water.”
Natasha Wright, PhD candidate and
Tata Fellow, Forbes 30 Under 30 energy
pioneer, and 2015 USAID Desalination
Prize winner with Assistant Professor
Amos Winter.
