© OECD/IEA 2013
World Renewable Energy Outlook 2030-2050
Paolo Frankl Head, Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency
CNRS, Paris 3 October 2013
Les énergies renouvelables au service de l’humanité CNRS – Ademe – Unesco, Paris, 3 octobre 2013
© OECD/IEA 2013
Current share of renewables in different sectors
65.2
86.2
78.8
83.7
9.0
World total final energy consumption, 2011 (EJ)
Electricity
Transport
Industry
Buildings
Other sectors
Source: IEA Statistics 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Electricity Transport Industry Buildings Other sectors
Non-OECD solid biomassBioenergy
Other renewables
Non-ren. Waste, nuclear & othersNatural gas
Oil
Coal
Note: Electricity consumed in different end-use sectors is not shown here.
© OECD/IEA 2013
Renewable electricity projected to scale up by 40% from 2012 to 2018 Broadly on track with 2020 IEA 2°C scenario targets
Positive mid-term outlook for renewable electricity
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
TWh
Hydropower Bioenergy Onshore windOffshore wind Solar PV CSPGeothermal Ocean % Total generation
IEA 2° C Scenario
Global renewable electricity production, by technology (TWh)
Gas-fired generation 2016
Nuclear generation 2016
Source: Medium-Term Renewables Market Report 2013
© OECD/IEA 2013
Renewable power spreading out everywhere
Emerging markets more than compensate for slowing growth and volatility in markets such as Europe and the US
Total Renewable Annual Capacity Additions, by region (GW)
This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
Source: Medium-Term Renewables Market Report 2013
© OECD/IEA 2013
Over the long term, the power generation mix is set to change
Global electricity generation by source, 2010-2035
Renewables electricity generation overtakes natural gas by 2016 & almost coal by 2035; growth in coal generation in emerging economies outweighs a fall in the OECD
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
TWh
Coal Renewables
Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 New Policies Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2013
Global climate-friendly electricity mix by 2050
Renewables to provide 57 to 71% of World’s electricity by 2050 in 2 degree scenarios - VRE 22 to 32%
Renewables 57%
Variables 32%
22%
71%
© OECD/IEA 2013
Technology Roadmap: Wind Power 2013 Update
Significant technology
evolution: Growth in size, height and
capacity Greater capacity factors,
easier access to sites with lower-speed winds, more power system-friendly making grid integration easier
Increased ambition for 2050: 15% to 18% of global electricity generation (vs. 12% in original 2009 roadmap)
Deployment in line with expectations for land-based wind
Source: IEA Wind Update Roadmap 2013, forthcoming
© OECD/IEA 2013
World Map
Source: Technology Roadmap – Solar Heating & Cooling
17% of total cooling demand
20% of total low-temperature heat demand in industry
14% of total hot water and space heating demand
Solar heating & cooling can play an important role in industry and buildings
Source: IEA SHC Roadmap 2012
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Final energy use for heat in 2050 2°C Scenario
By 2050, renewables provide almost 50% of heat in buildings Biomass is most important renewable energy source in industry
in 2050 solar thermal contributes mainly to low-temperature heat demand
33.0%
12.2%26.3%
21.5%
7.1%
Industry, 2050 (102 EJ)
Coal
Oil
Gas
Bioenergy
Solar thermal & other renewables
2.2%
10.1%
38.5%34.1%
12.4%
2.8%
Buildings, 2050 (124 EJ)
Coal
Oil
Gas
Bioenergy
Solar thermal
Other renewables
Source: Adapted from IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2012
© OECD/IEA 2013
Long-term prospects for transport biofuels
Biofuels share in total transport fuel increases to 27% in 2050
Advanced biofuels are the only low-carbon fuel alternative for heavy transport
Land-use increase limited to a factor 3, thanks to a mix of increased productivity, use of waste resources and advanced biofuels
Source: IEA Biofuels Technology Roadmap 2011
© OECD/IEA 2013
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Electricity Transport Industry Buildings Other sectorsOther renewables Biomass & waste Hydrogen Electricity Nuclear Natural gas Oil Coal
Renewables make substantial contribution in all end-use sectors in 2050
Renewables contribute considerably to TFEC ion different end-use sectors either directly, or indirectly through use of renewable electricity
Total final energy consumption in 2050 in the 2DS Source: Adapted from IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2012
© OECD/IEA 2013
Four Key Policy Ingredients
Clear Strategy and Targets
Smart Incentives
Non Economic Barriers
System Integration
© OECD/IEA 2013
IEA on-going work
Grid Integration of Variable Renewables (Phase III) Major Publication on Economics of Flexibility in January 2014
RE Heat technologies and policies RE Technology roadmaps Wind power 2013 Edition Solar photovoltaic 2014 Edition Solar thermal electricity (CSP) 2014 Edition
Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014 Long-term energy scenarios WEO 2013 with renewables chapter ETP 2014 with solar energy chapter
