Michel Julian

UNWTO Tourism Market Trends

Programme

World Tourism Trends

8th UNWTO/PATA Forum

on Tourism Trends and Outlook

Guilin, China

13-15 October 2014 – day 1

The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

- a specialized agency of the United ‎Nations (UN) and the leading international organization in the field of tourism. It serves as a ‎global forum for tourism policy issues and a practical source of tourism know-how.‎

- plays a central and decisive role in promoting the development of responsible, ‎sustainable and universally accessible tourism, paying particular attention to the ‎interests of developing countries.

- intergovernmental organization with membership includes 162 countries and territories and over 400 Affiliate ‎Members representing the private sector, educational institutions, tourism associations ‎and local tourism authorities.‎

- encourages the implementation ‎of the Global Code of Ethics for Tourism, with a view to ensuring that member ‎countries, tourist destinations and businesses maximize the positive economic, ‎ social and cultural effects of tourism and fully reap its benefits, while minimizing its ‎negative social and environmental impacts.‎

- committed to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, geared ‎toward reducing poverty and fostering sustainable development.‎

www2.unwto.org/en/content/who-we-are-0

CONTENT

1. International Tourism: Latest Results

2. Long-Term Perspectives

3. Connectivity and Related Issues

Inbound tourism: World

530 562

588 604 627

677 676 696 690

762 807

853

909 927 892

949 995

1037

1,087 mn

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

International tourist arrivals, 1995-2013* (million)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

50 million

arrivals more

than in 2012

Results 2013

International tourist arrivals

1087 million

+4.8%

International tourism receipts

(BOP Travel)

US$ 1159 billion (euro 900 bn)

+5.0% (real terms)

+

International passenger transport

(BOP Transport, passenger)

US$ 214 billion (euro 161 bn)

www.unwto.org/facts

International tourist arrivals and tourism receipts

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

Asia and

the Pacific

2013

82 90 89 89

98 110 115

124 112

143 154

166 182 184 181

205 219

234 249 mn

76 85 83

72 79 85 88

96 94

124 136

156

187

209 203 254

299

329

US$ 359 bn

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

International tourist arrivals, 1995-2013* (million)

International tourist arrivals (million)

International tourism receipts (US$ billion)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

26 million

arrivals more

than in 2012

Inbound tourism: Asia and the Pacific 2013

Inbound tourism: Asia and the Pacific 2013

South-East Asia grows most in arrivals

127

93

13

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013*

International tourist arrivals, 1995-2013* (million)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

North-East Asia

Oceania

South-East Asia

South Asia

Inbound tourism: Asia and the Pacific 2013

North-East Asia grows most in receipts

184

108

43

25 0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

International tourism receipts, 1995-2013* (US$ billion)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

North-East Asia

Oceania

South-East Asia

South Asia

2014

International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution

World (% change)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

International tourism maintains strength

+4.6% -3.9% +6.5% +4.9% +4.8% +4.0%

517 million intnl tourist arrivals through June,

22 million more than in the same period of 2013

International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution

(% change) World (million)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014*

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Asia and the Pacific going steady

+5.4% -3.9% +13.2% +6.5% +6.3% +6.9%

4.8

4

3

7

5

3

11

5

10

4

2 3 3

6

5

-1

4.6

8

3 3

7 7

3

6

8

6

5

6 6

4

3

-4

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

13/12 14*/13 January - June

First half 2014:

Americas, Asia and the Pacific and Europe lead growth

UNWTO Tourism

Confidence Index

UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: World

Better

Equal

Worse

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

t1t2 '03t3 t1t2 '04t3 t1t2 '05t3 t1t2 '06t3 t1t2 '07t3 t1t2 '08t3 t1t2 '09t3 t1t2 '10t3 t1t2 '11t3 t1t2 '12t3 t1t2 '13t3 t1t2 '14t3

Prospects (before)

Evaluation (after)

Confidence still positive, but slightly declining

UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: Asia and the Pacific

Better

Equal

Worse

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

t1t2 '03t3 t1t2 '04t3 t1t2 '05t3 t1t2 '06t3 t1t2 '07t3 t1t2 '08t3 t1t2 '09t3 t1t2 '10t3 t1t2 '11t3 t1t2 '12t3 t1t2 '13t3 t1t2 '14t3

Prospects (before)

Evaluation (after)

AP confidence remains positive

Outlook

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

8.0

0.2

3.1

-0.6

10.4

5.9 5.7 6.4

1.9

-3.9

6.5 5.1

4.1 4.8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014*

International tourist arrivals

Forecast

2013: 4% to 4.5%

Outlook: World ch

ange

(%

)

Actual data Projection 2014

(issued January) 2013 2014 Jan.-Jun.

World +4.8% +4.6% +4% to +4.5%

Europe +4.8% +4.8% +3% to +4%

Asia and the Pacific +6.5% +5.4% +5% to +6%

Americas +3.4% +6.2% +3% to +4%

Africa +5.6% +3.3% +4% to +6%

Middle East -0.6% -4.4% +0% to +5%

International tourism: projection full year 2014

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

Outbound

markets

World and regions: Outbound Tourism

International Tourism Expenditure (US$ billion)

China

United States

Germany

Russian Federation

United Kingdom

France

Canada

Australia

Italy

Brazil

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

China became number 1 outbound market in 2012 and

strong growth continues

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

International Tourism Expenditure (% change of same period year before, local currencies current prices)

13*/12 2014* YTD

Major outbound markets

Emerging markets remain hot

B

R C

I

Tourism Towards 2030 :

Key Results

International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, million

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

International tourist arrivals to reach

1.8 billion by 2030

1 bn

1.8 bn

1.4 bn

Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East

and Africa to increase their shares

Africa

3%

Americas

23%

Asia and the Pacific

8%

Europe

63%

Middle East

3%

Middle East

6%

Europe

51%

Asia and the Pacific

22%

Americas

16%

Africa

5%

Africa

7%

Americas

14%

Asia and the Pacific

30%

Europe

41%

Middle East

8%

1980

2010

2030

International Tourism, Asia and the Pacific International tourist arrivals, million

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asia and the Pacific : Intl tourist arrivals still to grow

from 200 mn to over 500 mn

204 mn

535 mn

355 mn

Inbound tourism by region of destination International Tourist Arrivals, million

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asia and the Pacific will gain most

of the new arrivals

Africa

Middle East

Americas

Asia and the Pacific

Europe

Asia and the Pacific

towards 2030

million

additional international

tourist arrivals on average a year of the 43 million worldwide

Asia and the Pacific: how to make it possible

Opportunities Challenges

- natural resources

- cultural resources

- human resources

- price competitiveness

- large populations

fuelling intrareg. travel

- economic dynamism

- travel facilitation

- planning & product

development

- infrastructure development

- sustainability / greening

- congestion management

- quality

- marketing and promotion

- e-marketing

- image building and branding

- coordination, cooperation,

collaboration

Visa facilitation

Tourism in the global agenda

• G20 recognizes for the first

time Travel and Tourism as

a vehicle for job creation,

economic growth and

development, and commits to

work towards developing

travel facilitation initiatives in

support of job creation,

quality work, poverty

reduction and global growth. (G20 Declaration - June 2012)

• Rio+20 recognizes the

significant contribution of

sustainable tourism to the

three dimensions of

sustainable development,

its linkages to other sectors

and its capacity to create

decent jobs and trade

opportunities.

Visa Facilitation - Openness Index

Situation 2012

% of world population

that do not need visa

to enter country*

* visa upon arrival weighted 0.7, e-visa 0.5

UNWTO jointly with partners is working closely with

stakeholders to move agenda forward

A number of meetings have taken place and various reports have

been prepared taking stock of and analysing the current situation:

For more information and download of reports, see

http://rcm.unwto.org/en/content/facilitation-tourist-travel

Visa facilitation in ASEAN Member States

Under current visa policies: • 10.4% of expected international tourists over

the period 2014-2016 would be required to

obtain a traditional visa prior to travel under

current visa policies

By implementing facilitative policies • The ASEAN region could gain up to 10 million

international tourist arrivals by 2016

• Additional US$12 billion international tourism

receipts and 650 thousand jobs

For more information and download of reports, see

http://rcm.unwto.org/en/content/facilitation-tourist-travel

Taxation

Pieter Brueghel the Younger

Paying the Tax (The Tax Collector)

oil on panel, 1620-1640

Intelligent

Taxation: -Airport fees

-Duties

-Taxation policies

Connectivity

Connectivity

1) 51% of international tourists arrive at their

destination by air transport and tourism

are closely interconnected

2) Opportunity for increased cooperation

between tourism and aviation authorities

Air transport will continue to increase

market share, but at a slower pace

International tourism by means of transport International Tourist Arrivals, million

by air

over surface

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

250

500

750

1,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Connectivity, in the view of the Department of Tourism

of the Republic of the Philippines, is not merely about

making flight plans. It is not just about cooperation. It is,

in a very real sense, about friendship. It is actually

about‎understanding‎each‎other’s‎needs‎and‎trusting‎in‎

the sincerity behind those needs and those demands.

And finally, tourism is about trusting in the unity of goals

and what makes each other happy.

Tourism Secretary Ramon R Jimenez, Jr Speech at the APEC 2020 Conference on

Enhancing Tourism and Air Transport Connectivity

in the Asia-Pacific Region

(February 2012 Manila)

Thank you very much for

your attention!

World Tourism Organization

(UNWTO)

www.unwto.org