WP2 - Task 2.3 : Development of new modeling tools

Aerosol radiative effect on the Mediterranean climate :

implication for solar energy

Samuel Somot (CNRM)Pierre Nabat (CNRM)

Roma, July 2013

http://www.climrun.eu

All case study (Morocco, Barcelona, Cyprus, Croatia): Solar energy:

Variable: downward shortwave radiation (direct and diffuse)

Stakeholder need: improved solar radiation representation in climate models ... taken into account aerosols

Area: Mediterranean basin + case studyTemporal horizon: past climate and future climate (all)Partners: ICTP, CNRMState-of-the-art:

– regional climate models include a poor representation of aerosols, often low-resolution (in space and time) climatology

– Off-line regional chemistry models do exist but feedback on the radiation is not modelized

Climate tools and products: Energy case study

Mediterranean climate and aerosols

Mediterranean aerosols : strong variability at all scales

Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD, 550 nm), MODIS (Aqua)

Nabat et al. 2013, AMT

A new 2003-2009 monthly-mean climatology

A new Mediterranean aerosol climatology (Nabat et al., 2013, AMT)– Usable for variability study (2003-2009) – Usable for driving any Med-CORDEX RCM (already tested in ALADIN)

Aerosol radiative effet in ALADIN : 2003-2009 meanDirect effect: absorption and scattering of solar incident radiationSemi-direct: change in atmosphere circulation and cloud coverIndirect: not taken into account here

Nabat et al. (in prep.)

Aerosol radiative effet : long-term trend

The brightening effect since the 80s: decrease in pollution (sulfate) in Europe leads to an increase in surface shortwave radiation

Nabat et al., EGU 2013

Aerosol radiative effet : daily variability

– Implementation of a fully interactive dust scheme in ALADIN

– Case study for 22-29 June 2012: dust event and its radiative impact

– Operational forecasts of Mediterranean dust event for the Charmex field campaign in Summer 2013 (on-going)

24 June 27 June 29 June

Aerosol radiative effet : daily variability

A. Culot, E. Bruhier, Master thesis, 2013

Fès (Morocco)23 June 2012

Mid-troposphere warming correlated with the maximum aerosol loadSurface cooling (-1.5°C)

(2x10 days) AOD SWnet (W/m²) T2m (°C)

Aerosol impact 0.31 - 38 - 1.2

Fès (Morocco), composite study over June-July 2012

Conclusion and future plans

Aerosols are key players in Mediterranean climate variabilityThey strongly impact incident shortwave radiation at all the scales:

daily event, seasonal cycle, spatial pattern, long-term trends, and probably scenario

Aerosol-radiation interaction could be (is already ?) taken into account when dealing with solar plant planning or solar energy operational management

New Mediterranean aerosol climatology is available Modelling aerosol-radiation requires full coupling interactive scheme:

RegCM (ICTP) and ALADIN (CNRM) have this modelling capacityQuasi-operational weather forecast model including interactive dust

scheme has been set-up

Any products from this work ?What about interactive aerosols in seasonal forecast ?Work on aerosol representation in RCMs ... towards Med-CORDEX-2 ?

Aerosols : effect of dust emission parameterization

Effect of changing the dust emission scheme in RegCM: – case study: 31/10 to 02/11/2008

Nabat et al. 2012, ACP