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State of the Election October 18, 2012

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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

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47% 49% 51% 45% 46% 48% 47% 46% 49% 45%

7% 3% 4% 12% 5% 3% 7% 9% 6% 10%

47% 48% 45% 47% 49% 49% 46% 45% 45% 45%

0%

10%

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60%

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100%

Presidential Race

Obama

Undecided

Romney

R+1 R+6 O+2 O+3 O+1 R+1 R+1 R+4 Tie

Polls over the past two weeks have shown an average of an almost completely even race, with Mitt Romney holding a very slight edge over Barack Obama. The polls have stayed roughly around where they were directly after the first debate, suggesting that Romney’s gains were more permanent than originally thought.

Tie

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Despite being expected to lose, Romney clearly won the first debate. The first debate shifted the race in a significant way as it is now tied at 47% after Obama’s pre-debate lead of 5 points.

32%

56%

0%

20%

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60%

80%

100%

Pre-First Debate Poll on who was expected to perform better

Romney Obama

72%

19%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Post-First Debate Poll on who won the debate

Romney Obama

45% 47% 50% 47%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

9/30-10-3 10/3-10/5

Gallup Tracking before and after the First Debate

Romney Obama

Source: CNN/ORC and Gallup

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Gallup’s Presidential Tracking has shown upward trend in the weeks following the first debate, and in their first official numbers following the second debate, Mitt Romney has opened up a 6-point lead among likely voters. While many considered the second debate to be a draw or close Obama victory, Romney’s performance has not stopped his momentum.

48% 49% 48% 48% 49% 49% 49% 49% 50% 51%

48% 47% 48% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 46% 45%

0%

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October 1-7 October 2-8 October 3-9 October 4-10 October 5-11 October 6-12 October 7-13 October 8-14 October 9-15 October 10-16

Gallup Presidential Tracking Following the Presidential Debates

Romney Obama

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SENATE RACES

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Out of the 33 Senate seats up for election in 2012, 22 seats are considered likely wins or safe for Republicans or Democrats. Fifteen seats are likely or safe Democrat and seven states are likely or safe Republican.

Dark red and dark blue states represent

safe Republican and Democrat seats

respectively. Light red and light blue states

represent likely wins for Republicans and

Democrats respectively.

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There are eleven Senate seats that are currently considered toss-ups .Republicans hold slim leads in only 4 out of the 11 seats, but different polls for the toss-up seats show a variety of possible outcomes.

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Arizona has a very tight Senate race currently, with the RCP average at 43% for both Carmona and Flake. Recent polls have some strong differences though, ranging from Flake +7 to Carmona +4.

43% 40% 43% 43% 47%

14% 16% 12% 17% 12%

43% 44% 45% 40% 41%

0%

10%

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30%

40%

50%

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70%

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RCP Average Behavior ResearchCenter (Oct. 4-10)

PPP (D) (Oct. 1-3) HIghGround/Moore(R)® (Sep. 25-26)

Rasmussen Reports(Sep. 25)

Arizona Senate Race

Carmona

Undecided/Other

Flake

Tie D+4 D+2 R+3 R+6

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Despite being soundly beaten by 12 points in 2010, Linda McMahon has reemerged in 2012 to put the traditional blue state of Connecticut in play for Republicans. She trails Murphy by two points in the RCP average, but individual polls show a range of Murphy+5 to McMahon+1.

46% 44% 46% 48%

6% 10% 3% 5%

48% 46% 51% 47%

0%

10%

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RCP Average Siena (Oct. 4-14) Rasmussen (Oct. 7) Quinnipiac (Sep. 28-Oct. 2)

Connecticut Senate Race

Murphy

Undecided/Other

McMahon

D+2 D+2 R+1 D+5

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In Florida, one of the most discussed swing states in the election, there is a large spread among various polls , ranging from +12 for Bill Nelson on the high end to only Bill Nelson +1 at the other end. The RCP average stands at Nelson+7.

41% 37% 45% 42% 39%

11% 18% 9% 11%

9%

48% 45% 46% 47% 52%

0%

10%

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RCP Average PPP (D) (Oct. 12-14) Rasmussen Reports (Oct.11)

TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon(Oct. 8-10)

NBC/WSJ/Marist (Oct. 7-9)

Florida Senate Race

Nelson

Undecided

Mack

D+7 D+8 D+1 D+5 D+13

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Recent polling in Indiana has been limited, but even among two polls it’s apparent that there is variance in the results. Rasmussen shows Mourdock +5, but a Howey/DePauw poll has Donnelly with a 2-point lead.

47% 38%

11% 22%

42% 40%

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Rasmussen Reports (Oct. 10-11) Howey/DePauw (Sep. 19-23)

Indiana Senate Race

Donnelly

Undecided/Other

Mourdock

D+2 R+5

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Brown’s surprise victory in the 2009 Special Election gave a historically safe Democrat seat to the Republicans and set up a close contest for 2012. Warren holds a 3-point lead in the RCP average but the individual polls show a Brown +3 lead in one poll and Warren +6 in another.

46% 47% 44% 48% 45%

5% 4% 6% 7%

5%

49% 49% 50% 45%

50%

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RCP Average RasmussenReports (Oct. 10)

PPP (D) (Oct. 9-11) WBUR/MassINC(Oct. 5-7)

Western NEUniversity (Sep.

28-Oct. 4)

Massachusetts Senate Race

Warren

Undecided/Other

Brown

D+3 D+2 D+6 R+3 D+5

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What was once considered to be a relatively safe Republican victory in Missouri turned into dead-heat following Todd Akin’s unfortunate comments regarding “legitimate rape.” Though Akin lost his lead, the race remains very close, with Akin only trailing by two points in the RCP average.

44% 45% 40%

45% 44%

10% 4% 14% 9%

16%

46% 51%

46% 46% 40%

0%

10%

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RCP Average RasmussenReports (Oct. 2)

PPP (D) (Oct. 1-3) WeAskAmerica(Sep. 25-27)

Gravis MarketingSep. 16-17)

Missouri Senate Race

McCaskill

Undecided/Other

Akin

D+2 D+6 D+6 D+1 R+4

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Montana’s Senate race has become one of the closest races in the nation this cycle, with Rehberg and Tester tied in the RCP average. The differences in the individual polls range from Tester +2 to Rehberg +3.

46% 48% 43%

48%

8% 4% 12% 7%

46% 48% 45% 45%

0%

10%

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RCP Average Rasmussen Reports(Oct. 14)

PPP (D) (Oct. 8-10) Mason-Dixon (Sep. 17-19)

Montana Senate Race

Tester

Undecided/Other

Rehberg

Tie Tie D+2 R+3

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Nevada has become an increasingly favorable seat for the Republican, as Heller holds a 3-point lead over Berkley in the RCP average and holds a lead in all three of the recent polls conducted in the race.

45% 47% 48% 40%

13% 9% 7% 23%

42% 44% 45% 37%

0%

10%

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RCP Average PPP (D) (Oct. 8-10) Rasmussen Reports(Oct. 8)

Suffolk/KSNV (Oct. 6-9)

Nevada Senate Race

Berkley

Undecided/Other

Heller

R+3 R+3 R+3 R+3

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The Ohio Senate race has looked strong for Sherrod Brown throughout most of the year, but Mandel has the RCP average down to only a 5-point lead for Brown. The individual polls have stark contrasts, with Brown holding an 11-point lead in one poll, but only a single point lead in another.

42% 42% 46% 41% 38%

44%

11% 9% 7%

7% 20% 10%

47% 49% 47% 52%

42% 46%

0%

10%

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RCP Average PPP (D) (Oct. 12-13)

RasmussenReports (Oct. 10)

NBC/WSJ/Marist(Oct. 7-9)

SurveyUSA (Oct. 5-8)

WeAskAmerica(Oct. 4)

Ohio Senate Race

Brown

Undecided/Other

Mandel

D+5 D+7 D+1 D+11 D+4 D+2

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Virginia’s battle for the Senate has been one of the most followed races in the nation. Currently Kaine holds a 3-point lead over Allen in RCP average, but the individual polls are very sporadic, with Kaine holding a 7-point lead in one poll, but trailing Allen by 5 points in another poll.

45% 47% 46% 46% 44% 44%

7% 5% 13%

7% 5% 5%

48% 48% 41%

47% 51% 51%

0%

10%

20%

30%

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50%

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RCP Average Rasumussen Reports(Oct. 11)

WeAskAmerica (Oct.7-9)

NBC/WSJ/Marist(Oct. 7-9)

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac(Oct. 4-9)

PPP (D) (Oct. 4-7)

Virginia Senate Race

Kaine

Undecided

Allen

D+3 D+1 D+1 D+7 D+7 R+5

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Wisconsin’s Senate race has turned into a surprisingly close competition, with Baldwin only holding a 3-point lead over Thompson in the RCP Average. While Baldwin leads all of the individual polls, his largest lead is only 4%.

46% 47% 46% 46%

5% 2% 6% 5%

49% 51% 48% 49%

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10%

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RCP Average Rasmussen Reports(Oct. 9)

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac(Oct. 4-9)

PPP (D) (Oct. 4-6)

Wisconsin Senate Race

Baldwin

Undecided/Other

Thompson

D+3 D+4 D+2 D+3

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HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RACE

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The Generic Congressional ballot is very tight with only three weeks to go. Currently, Democrats hold a slight 1-point lead over Republicans, which is much closer than leads held in previous election years. This suggests that the Republicans will likely retain control of the House.

45%

44%

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Generic Congressional Ballot

Democrat Republican

49% 46%

43%

52% 47%

54% 53%

45%

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2004 2006 2008 2010

Previous Election Day Generic Ballots

Republican Democrat

Source: Real Clear Politics

R +7 D +37 D +29 R +69

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Source: WPA Analysis

-60

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Incumbent President Vote Difference

Incumbent President Vote Difference & Seats Gained in Congress

1980

1972

1936

1964

1984

1956 1940

1996

1944

2004 1992

Correlation: 0.65

In previous Presidential Election years, House gains have typically been modest, even in landslide victories. With a very close 2012 Presidential race, there is a small likelihood that either party makes substantial gains.

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For additional information about this data, please feel free to contact:

Chris Wilson Partner and CEO

405.286.6500

E-mail:

CWilson@WPAResearch.com