Date post: | 09-May-2015 |
Category: |
News & Politics |
Upload: | wilson-perkins-allen-opinion-research |
View: | 309 times |
Download: | 0 times |
Page 1
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief July 20, 2012
Page 2
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political
environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates
every Friday.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
• Romney vs. Obama
In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• The relationship between consumer sentiment and presidential elections.
• Opinions of Independents in swing states of Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.
• National opinion of which presidential candidate is trusted on the major issues.
Page 3
Weekly Summary
• Obama holds a one-point lead over Romney on the head to head ballot.
• There is a strong relationship between consumer sentiment and presidential re-
election (pg. 9).
o Obama’s re-election prospects appear grim as he finds himself in a similar
position as George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter.
• 47% of independent voters in swing states view Obama’s presidency as a failure
(pg. 12).
o Obama’s claim that Romney is out of touch with the economy does not
distract these voters from Obama’s poor economic record.
• Voters trust that Romney would handle the economy, taxes, the deficit, and
illegal immigration better than Obama (pg. 13).
o These issues are consistently the most important problems to voters, which
suggests that Romney is well positioned for November.
Page 4
Americans believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction by nearly a 2 to 1 margin.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Month Ago One Year Ago
Right Direction 30% 27%
Wrong Track 62% 66%
29% 27% 29% 31% 31% 30%
28% 27%
17% 19%
31% 30% 32%
47%
66% 62% 64% 63% 64% 66% 64%
77% 74%
61% 62% 62%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan
-10
Fe
b-1
0
Ma
r-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Jun
-10
Jul-1
0
Au
g-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Oct-
10
No
v-1
0
De
c-1
0
Jan
-11
Fe
b-1
1
Ma
r-1
1
Ap
r-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Jun
-11
Jul-1
1
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan
-12
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Jun
-12
Jul-1
2
Direction of the Country
Right Direction Wrong Track
2010 Election
Page 5
Obama’s job approval remains slightly below 50%.
46%
52%
44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%
49%
47%
48% 49%
47% 46%
49%
42%
51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%
47%
48%
47% 48%
50% 48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 46% 47%
Disapprove 48% 50%
Page 6
$50,620
$139,429
$15,893,504,267,312
The debt per taxpayer continues to approach $140,000.
Source: USDebtclock.org
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Citizen
Debt Per Taxpayer
Page 7
41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%
41% 43% 41% 42%
46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%
41% 46%
43% 44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
Republicans continue to lead Democrats on the generic congressional ballot.
Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains
49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%
45%
0%
50%
100%
2004 2006 2008 2010
Previous Election Day Generic Ballots
R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats
Page 8
A majority of Americans disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy.
Source: Pollster.com
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Obama Economic Approval
Approve Disapprove
53%
40%
2010 Election
Page 9
A recent study by AEI found a strong correlation between consumer sentiment and presidential re-election. Obama’s re-election prospects appear grim as he finds himself in a similar position as George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter.
Johnson* Nixon*
Carter
Reagan
H.W. Bush
Clinton
W. Bush
Obama
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105
Percent of Two Party
Re-Election Vote
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Index: October of Re-Election Year
* = November data
Correlation = 0.86
Source: The American Enterprise Institute
Page 10
Unemployment continues to drive the narrative of the election. The number of new jobs created each month continues to fall short of the 125,000 required to keep pace with population growth.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
68000 77000 80000
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
April May June
Jobs Created by Month
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
June, 2012 8.2%
Page 11
Obama’s lead over Romney is down to a single point midway through July.
Source: Real Clear Politics
47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46%
46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45%
43% 45% 44% 44% 45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul
Obama vs. Romney
Obama Romney
Page 12
Independent voters in swing states are crucial to the presidential election. These voters view Obama’s presidency as a failure, particularly his lack of leadership on the economy.
Source: Purple Strategies. Conducted July 9-13
47% 42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Obama is a failure as president Romney is too out of touch tobe president
Presidential Suitability
49% 43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Obama is unable to improvethe economy
Romney couldn't do a betterjob improving the economy
Economic Performance
Independent Voters in Swing States
Page 13
On a number of key issues, voters believe that Romney would do a better job than Obama. Voters believe that Romney would do a better job on the economy than Obama.
46% 50% 49% 47%
16% 14%
10% 10%
38% 36% 41% 43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Illegal Immigration Federal Budget Deficit The Economy and
Unemployment
Taxes
Core Issues
Romney Undecided Obama
Source: NYT/CBS News Poll
Page 14
For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact:
Bryon Allen Partner and COO
202.470.6300
E-mail:
Chris Perkins Partner
202.494.3084
E-mail:
Chris Wilson Partner and CEO
405.286.6500
E-mail:
Ryan Steusloff Vice President
202.470.6300
Matt Gammon Vice President
202.470.6300