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WRIWRI
International Climate Policy Post-2012Quantitative Tools and Negotiating Capacity
A Review of WRI’s Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (CAIT)
Beijing, ChinaFebruary, 2006
Jonathan PershingClimate, Energy and Pollution ProgramWorld Resources Institute http://www.wri.org
WRIWRI
• A web-based information and analysis tool on global climate change developed by The World Resources Institute (WRI).
• CAIT includes:– Data on all greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sources, plus
other data and indicators relevant to climate change policy– Data for 186 countries (most UNFCCC Parties) and regions– Analysis tools (e.g., trend, sector, or gas analysis)
What is CAIT?WRIWRI
WRIWRI
http://cait.wri.org
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What is CAIT? (2)
• Purposes– Promote greater access to information– Support decision-making processes and help build capacity– Provide common platform for data and analysis
• Policy neutral• Available free to the public at http://cait.wri.org
WRIWRI
• Data providers– CDIAC– RIVM – IPCC– IEA– World Bank
– UNDP– U.S. EPA– U.S. EIA– UNFCCC– Houghton
Acknowledgements
• Funding providers• U.S. EPA, Government of Norway, Wallace Global
Fund, Prospect Hill Foundation
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Working assumptions: – Information is the first step to solving any problem – Better information → better decisions– “Delivery system” matters
1. CAIT2. Navigating the Numbers report
Data – Policy Linkage
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Who is Using CAIT?
~5000 total users from 108 countries, December 2003 to present
28%25% 24% 23%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Aca
dem
ia
Gov
ernm
enta
l
NG
O/R
esea
rch
Priv
ate
Sect
or&
Med
ia
By Sector
35% 35%
19%
7%4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Eur
ope
US
+C
anad
a
Asia
Latin
Am
eric
a
Afr
ica
&M
id. E
ast
By Country/ Region
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CAIT Screens
Using CAIT
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Rank by national emissions total
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Bottom of the ranking: 186 countries
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Rank by perCapita emissions
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Choice of gases
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Other indicators
Analyses possible
Customize Displays
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Choosing Display Regions
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Vulnerability and Adaptation
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Some CAIT
Results
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• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation
Policy-Relevant Implications
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Projected Future GHG Emissions Growth
% Percent change from 2000
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• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation
Policy-Relevant Implications
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Largest Emitters: Developed & Developing
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• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation
Policy-Relevant Conclusions
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Fixed targets: challenging in the context of massive uncertainty
Projected CO2 Emissions Growth to 2025
WRIWRI
• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation
Policy-Relevant Conclusions
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Historical Contributions: Major Data Constraints
Cumulative CO2 Emissions, Comparison of Different Time Periods
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Emissions per Capita: Consensus?
GHG Emissions per Capita
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Fuel mix affects CO2 emissionsElectric Power Sector
WRIWRI
• Global trends• Big emitters• Emission caps and developing countries• Formulaic approaches to commitments• Sectoral cooperation
Policy-Relevant Conclusions
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GHG Flow Diagram: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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• Different “forms” of sectoral cooperation• How important is the sector? [% global GHGs] • Underlying rationale for sectoral cooperation
– Promote participation– Avoid “leakage”– Promote even regulatory playing field (competitiveness)
• Options for international cooperation
International Sectoral Cooperation
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• Global trends are in the wrong direction• Address GHGs in context of big emitting
countries and sectors– Int’l cooperation, investment, technology
• No single indicator tells a complete story• Data does not point directly toward a solution
– Nature and scale of problem– Diverse national circumstances
Conclusions
WRIWRI
Using CAIT
http://cait.wri.org