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please turn over... Hi and welcome to March’s What Really Wins Money. I hope you enjoyed the Cheltenham Festival and made use of the tips and strategies from Febru- ary’s newsletter. On to this month, and I begin by raiding my DRT vaults for an excellent way of backing a football team at odds of 25/1 or bigger, and coming out on top! It really is such an easy strategy to implement. Lucy Collins is coming to the end of her excellent introduction into the world of betting, courtesy of her The 7 Pillars of Successful Punting. We are on Pillar Six this month, which offers an introduction into the world of sports arbitrage – its positives and nega- tives. The Statman has uncovered an excellent lay system, which takes advantage of the statistically poor performance of placed horses in handicap races. This is a strategy I will be following with interest at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. With the Grand National upon us in April, I show you the six factors you need to have in mind, in order to shortlist the horses most likely to run well. The Patriarch offers his Grand National fancy, as well as an excellent Flat racing betting strategy with an exciting number of big-priced winners. With my ‘Home-Grown’ systems this month, I take a look at how more risk can lead to greater reward, with a number of interesting staking plans from www.stakingmachine.com, which really enhance profits. We end with a quick round-up of what’s hot and what’s not with the Systems and Tipsters Update. There are more reviews to be found at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. Now let’s raid those DRT vaults for getting results from those big odds… FOOTBALL TRADING Introducing The HSA Technique: An Easy to Use Low-Risk High-Reward Football Trading Method I run a football research and live trading service called Delay-React-Trade – or ‘DRT’ for short. The purpose of this service is a simple one… We look to create great betting and trading oppor- tunities in in-play football matches at www.betfair. com, which are characterised as low-risk and high- reward. In essence, we look to back teams and outcomes at high odds, and we look to lay teams and outcomes at short odds. Here’s an excellent trading technique which follows this low-risk/high-reward ethos, which you can put to use immediately (or join DRT – www.canonburypub lishing.com/DRT/recommended – and let me do all of the work for you!). I call it ‘the HSA Trading Technique’ (Half-time Score Away)… The rules are simple to follow and implement. Step 1 – Make sure you are using football matches THE 7 PILLARS OF SUCCESSFUL PUNTING (PART 6) Intelligent Sports Arbitrage ....................................... 4 THE STATMAN PRESENTS How to Make Great Profits from Placed Horses in Handicap Races ........................................................... 6 THE PATRIARCH PRESENTS Find Big Priced Winners During The Flat Season With This Proven Handicap System .................................. 10 REVIEWS: Home-Grown Betting Systems Update ................... 12 REVIEWS: Systems and Tipsters Update ................................... 16 INSIDE THIS ISSUE: What Really Wins Money An Independent Review of Tipsters and Betting Systems March 2014 Volume 10 Issue 3
Transcript
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    Hi and welcome to Marchs What Really Wins Money. I hope you enjoyed the Cheltenham Festival and made use of the tips and strategies from Febru-arys newsletter.On to this month, and I begin by raiding my DRT vaults for an excellent way of backing a football team at odds of 25/1 or bigger, and coming out on top! It really is such an easy strategy to implement.Lucy Collins is coming to the end of her excellent introduction into the world of betting, courtesy of her The 7 Pillars of Successful Punting. We are on Pillar Six this month, which offers an introduction into the world of sports arbitrage its positives and nega-tives.The Statman has uncovered an excellent lay system, which takes advantage of the statistically poor performance of placed horses in handicap races. This is a strategy I will be following with interest at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk.With the Grand National upon us in April, I show you the six factors you need to have in mind, in order to shortlist the horses most likely to run well. The Patriarch offers his Grand National fancy, as well as an excellent Flat racing betting strategy with an exciting number of big-priced winners.

    With my Home-Grown systems this month, I take a look at how more risk can lead to greater reward, with a number of interesting staking plans from www.stakingmachine.com, which really enhance profits.

    We end with a quick round-up of whats hot and whats not with the Systems and Tipsters Update. There are more reviews to be found at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk.Now lets raid those DRT vaults for getting results from those big odds

    Football trading

    introducing the HSa technique: an Easy to Use low-risk High-reward Football trading Method

    I run a football research and live trading service called Delay-React-Trade or DRT for short.The purpose of this service is a simple oneWe look to create great betting and trading oppor-tunities in in-play football matches at www.betfair.com, which are characterised as low-risk and high-reward. In essence, we look to back teams and outcomes at high odds, and we look to lay teams and outcomes at short odds.Heres an excellent trading technique which follows this low-risk/high-reward ethos, which you can put to use immediately (or join DRT www.canonburypub lishing.com/DRT/recommended and let me do all of the work for you!).I call it the HSA Trading Technique (Half-time Score Away)The rules are simple to follow and implement.Step 1 Make sure you are using football matches

    The 7 Pillars of successful PunTing (ParT 6)intelligent Sports arbitrage ....................................... 4

    The sTaTman PresenTsHow to Make great Profits from Placed Horses in Handicap races ........................................................... 6

    The PaTriarch PresenTsFind big Priced Winners during the Flat Season With this Proven Handicap System .................................. 10

    reviews:Home-grown betting Systems Update ................... 12

    reviews:Systems and tipsters Update ................................... 16

    INSIDE THIS ISSUE:

    What Really Wins Moneyan independent review of Tipsters and Betting systems

    march 2014 volume 10 issue 3

  • 2whose betting markets go in-play at www.betfair.com. The coupon will be entitled Football In-Play Coupon:

    We need the betting markets to go in-play. Odds change when events change (goals, red cards, even a lack of goals) as a football match is being played.Step 2 Wait for the match to go in-play and look out for the following scorelines: either a 0-2 or a 0-3 to the away side. We want this scoreline to occur early in the match, preferably before half-time.A 0-2 or 0-3 scoreline at half-time, to the away side, provides us with an ideal opportunity for a low-risk high-reward trade. Why? Home teams have a distinct advantage. The support is naturally on their side. The referees tend to be subconsciously biased in favour of the home team, simply down to the voice of the home crowd. And if the home side was the original favourite in the match, then so much the better. This 0-2/0-3 score-line is a shock, and an early shock.But the match is not over!As the scoreline has appeared so early, this provides ample time for the home team to regain parity. A half-time break can also bring with it great advan-tages for a comeback a change in tactics, the old hairdryer treatment from the manager, and a renewed vigour to fight back for the second half in front of home supporters.Step 3 Back the home team (losing 0-2 or 0-3) at enhanced odds. The odds youll be getting for a home team when 0-2 or 0-3 down is far higher than youll have gotten (quite obviously) pre-match.Heres a very recent example, before I share with you some other examples in the recent past

    This is the Algarve Cup, a womens international football tournament, and this match is between USA ladies and Denmark ladies.Background The USA are 1.24 shots to win this match, i.e. they are extremely short-priced favourites indeed. This would be an ideal scenario for this foot-ball trading strategy (any odds-on team pre-match would be ideal). An odds-on team at www.betfair.com is a team whose odds are 2.00 (decimal odds) or below at kick-off.The match How did this match progress? Not too good for the Americans, it would seem. I think they must have picked Barbara Bush to play as a goal-keeper, as the Denmark ladies lead 0-3 at half-time:

    The scoreline in brackets is the half-time scoreline (0-3 to Denmark Women). I have blanked out the full-time scoreline.My interest is piqued at this stage! The USA Women, along with the German Women, are the international powerhouses of ladies football. A 0-3 scoreline at half-time affords the USA a half-time team-talk in order to change tactics, and a further 45 minutes in which to remedy the situation.The USA Women, 1.24 shots pre-match, are cur-rently backable at odds of 27 at half-time. I decide to back the USA Women with 25 and hope they act as a top womens international side should act!How does the second half progress? The USA ladies score first in the second half to bring the scoreline back to 1-3:

    USA womens odds were 27 at half-time. In reaction to scoring first in the second half, their odds reduce and provide me with the first profitable opportunity

    In this article, I have taken screenshots from Fairbot, which is Betfair Trading Software. This strategy can

    It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018 All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money, Subscription Office, Unit 3, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5NF. Tel: 0208 597 0181 Fax: 0208 597 4040. Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ. Registered in England No. 4765425 Vat Reg No. 811 5700 64 Copyright What Really Wins Money 2014

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    also be used at www.betfair.com using their cash out facility. Fairbots greening up function pro-vides an ideal tool for illustrating the profit potential after each goal has been scored in the second half.

    Having backed USA Women at odds of 27, their odds reduce in reaction to the goal. The figure in the green box represents the profit that can be achieved if I were to trade out of my enhanced bet now (19.08). I make a decision that there are 38 minutes remaining in this second half, and USA Women are more than capable of a fight back.

    The Denmark Women do not quite read the script in this match, and score next, making the scoreline 1-4Lets fast-forward to the critical scoreline in this second half: the scoreline which will enable a good trading profit

    Its the 68th minute of the game. The USA Women have scored three goals to the Danish Womens four goals.It is here that my 25 half-time bet can be turned into a decent profit (despite there being 22 minutes of this match remaining).How much can I make at this stage of the match? Lets return to the Fairbot greening up box, which shows any profit/loss at each stage of the match:

    With the fight-back almost complete, I can now secure a profit of 110. The market has reacted to the USA Women closing the gap to one goal by shorten-ing their half-time odds of 27 all the way down to 4.8.What was the final score? When you trade in-play it is what happens during a football match which mat-

    ters not necessarily the final score.

    If you look below, youll see how the match pro-gressed from beginning to end:

    In hindsight, it was fortunate that I profited when the scoreline was 3-4, instead of holding out for a potential bigger profit it had potential but was a profit not yet realised. This is an important lesson if you consider trading. Other examples This is not an isolated incident. There have been two other matches recently which followed this template to the letter, only on this occa-sion the teams were 0-2 down early on in the match and were leading during the match, or actually won!Look at the match below, featuring Hibernian FC and Motherwell. It meets all of the criteria I look for, for this niche trading strategy:

    Hibernian are playing at home. The away side Motherwell take an early 0-2 lead.

    Hibernian score the next goal and two more in the second half.

    Note in this example that we do not necessarily wait until half-time before backing the home team at enhanced odds. The key here is that the home side are 0-2 or 0-3 down early in the match.

    Remember that I said it is what happens as a match is in-play that is important to us, and not necessarily the final score. In this example, Hibernian actually led the match 3-2. It was at this stage that the maximum profit could have been extracted from this trade, as Hibernians odds would have reduced dramatically from their position earlier in the match when they were losing 0-2.

  • 4And on the same day...We travel to the French Ligue 1 for this particular example of the strategy in action, and in this case, a team we could have backed at odds of 25, who go on to win the match. Tell me: how often do you get the chance to back a team at odds of 25 (24/1) and be in with an excellent chance of profiting fully?

    This match follows the criteria perfectly: Toulouse are the home team, and they go 0-2 down to away team Stade Reims at half-time.

    Back Toulouse at half-time at odds of 25. Look at the goal progression below. I personally traded out when the scoreline reached 2-2 and Tou-louses odds reduced to 4.4 from a high of 25. Why didnt I wait to see if they could win? Quite simply, I cannot predict the future. Why didnt I wait to see if the USA Women would win, when they were 3-4 up? In that match they actually went on to lose the match. This could quite easily be the scenario with Toulouse.

    Here is the scoreline for this match:

    Bottom line This is an excellent niche. The most famous example I suppose is that Liverpool Champi-ons League Final when they were trailing 0-3 to AC Milan.Use the following checklist to find yourself teams at odds of as high as 25/1 who have an excellent chance of profiting for you:

    Make sure any match you monitor is on the Bet-fair In-play football coupon.

    The home team should not be an obvious out-sider (ideally odds-on as the USA Women and Toulouse were).

    The away team should take an early 0-2 or 0-3 lead. By early, I generally mean before half-time or at half-time.

    Back the home team at enhanced odds. Trade out for a profit if the home team equalise or there is a significant enough shift in the odds to allow a profit.

    If you want to see this trading strategy and a number of other profitable trading strategies making money, in realtime, please take a trial with my Delay-

    React-Trade (DRT) football trading service at: www.canonburypublishing.com/DRT/recommended.The key to my trading success is to look for low-risk-high-reward trades such as the HSA trading strategy showcased here.

    tHE 7 PillarS oF SUccESSFUl PUnting (Part 6)

    intelligent Sports arbitrageWhat is sports arbitrage?Sports arbitrage (or arbing) is the practice of plac-ing simultaneous bets on all possible outcomes in an event at odds which guarantee a profit.

    The key determinant for arbing success is to find, say, a two-team/player event, where the odds for one player and the odds for the other player, when trans-lated into a percentage, are less than 100%.Heres a simple exampleWe find a tennis match, where Player A is priced at odds of evens with Bookmaker X.At Bookmaker Y, Player B is priced at odds of 11/10.Is there an arbing opportunity here? You bet there is. Follow these simple stepsStep 1 Translate the odds into percentages. The Internet has charts such as this one found at www.horseracing-and-bettingsystems.com/betting-odds-percentage-table.html, which will do this for you.Alternately, follow this simple equation. Lets look at Player A, who has been priced at evens. Evens is also 1/1 in fractional terms. We divide the top number in the fraction by the bottom number. In the case of an evens bet which is 1/1, we divide 1 by 1 and we get 1.Now add 1 and this becomes 2. We now divide 100 by 2 to get the percentage. Evens, therefore, become 50%.Lets do this with Player B: 11 divided by 10 is 1.1. Add 1 = 2.1. Now divide 100 by 2.1.We get 47.62%.Step 2 Add up the percentages of the two players. If that percentage is under 100% you can actually create a guaranteed profit. In this example, Player As odds as a percentage is 50%.Player Bs odds as a percentage is 47.62%. Total percentage is 97.62%.

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    Step 3 Profit from the arb by backing each player with that percentage of your betting back. Using 100 as an example, we could back Player A for 50 at evens, and Player B for 47.62 at 11/10.Regardless of which player wins, we will win 100-97.62 or 2.38. This is a simplistic look at basic arbing in a two-team/player event. There are obvious objections to sports arbing. Lets take a look at them1. It can involve a lot of effort for very modest

    returns. Firstly, you have to put a price on your time... A 3% return on a 100 arb buys you 3. Youll need a lot of those to pay the rent, and probably dont want to spend half an hour finding them. So automa-tion rapidly becomes a necessity.You also need to bet with decent chunks of cash if youre going to make any real money at this. Double your stakes and you double your income, all in the same amount of time. So unless youre prepared to work with a substantial bankroll, you may find your progress is limited (though equally, there is no need to panic unduly about this one, as usually very little, if any, of your bankroll will actually be at risk. In effect, what we are talking about is the need to set aside working capital).Secondly, you have to turn over your money quickly. So setting up arbs several weeks in advance makes no sense. You need events that are going to take place sometime soon, preferably today, and ideally within the next half hour! Which brings me back to automation (about which theres more below), and to the need for timely information.2. The bookies will shut you down.Well, yes possibly, but all successful punters struggle with this one, not just arbers. And there is a lot you can do to manage your bookie relationships.Ive had a lot to say on this subject in the past, so shall just add/repeat the following here:

    Remember to smooth your bets (i.e. never use stakes with precise amounts of pence), and try to focus on (reasonably) mainstream sports events. There is no more sure-fire way of getting your account closed than betting 47.23 on Madagas-can U-17 ladies darts.

    Ideally, ensure your stakes end in a 0 or a 5. If you must bet 62 to make the sums work, place an initial bet of 2, then follow up with a second

    one of 60, to encourage your friendly bookie to regard the first punt as a keying error.

    Dont panic if you have an account closed. There are a lot of bookmakers on the Internet: probably far more than any of us realise, so it doesnt matter that much if you have a few accounts closed along the way. Plus there are new ones opening all the time (Winner.com; Betfairs sportsbook; Vernons sportsbook; Betbright, etc).

    Remember to check that any obscure book-ies you use are safe. I always do a quick check on the Bookmakers Review Red List (www.bookmakersreview.com/red-list).

    Consider using Skrill (www.skrill.com), instead of bankcards. This is actually good for both you and your bookie, as he should incur lower banking charges, and you will turn over your funds far more quickly which is, as we have seen, essential to making arbitrage pay.

    Consider cross-market arbs. They are much harder for bookies to spot, and therefore less likely to attract account limiting action (e.g. bet on the 0-0 outcome in the Correct Score market, and on the Over 0.5 Goals option in the Goals market). 3. You will eventually fall foul of palpable error

    clauses.Palpable error clauses can be exasperating. If you dont know, these are your bookmakers get-out-of-jail cards, for when they have made a tran-scription error or similar, and are on the hook for a bigger payout than they feel is fair. They can even revoke a bet after the sports event in question has finished, if they deem that the price they gave was palpably wrong!This may sound a bit scary, but the bottom line is that palpable errors need not be a problem if you use your common sense. Basically, if a particular price looks too good to be true (i.e. massively out of line from what other bookies are offering on the same event), its OK: take the bet provided you then contact your bookie for confirmation in writing before laying it off. If it is a palp, hell tell you at this point, and youll get money back, without any downside.For a full discussion of palpable errors, read my case study on the subject at www.laybackandgetrich.com/sports-arbitrage-and-the-risk-of-palpable-error-clauses.automation which products to useMy recipe for sports arbitrage success contains four ingredients:

  • 6 Automation Timeliness Working capital A wide range of bookies

    Only the third one (money!) is entirely dependent on you! The other three can all be comfortably supplied by a number of online providers in what has rapidly become a pretty mature market.My favourite general arbitrage service, by some dis-tance, is Mathbet (www.mathbet.com). Its not cheap, but is very good value, and covers a wide range of bookies and markets. It produces lots of arbs that are (usually) still there by the time you click through to the bookies site, and performed well in trials on my site (with around 80% of arbs still being available on the bookmakers websites by the time we arrived see www.laybacka-ndgetrich.com/mathbet-trial-conclusion).Mathbet also supplies a lot of cross-market arbs, which are particularly bookie-friendly, as we have seen. It is also generally easy to understand and use, and will even automatically log you into most (but not all) bookie sites, so helping speed things up.Another appealing option and quite astonishing value is new entrant, Spymare (www.spymare.com). Spymare concentrates on back-and-lay arbi-trage on horse racing only, but finds some incred-ible value arbs. Again, it has performed very well in live trials on my site, even convincing my triallist to abandon his previous cynicism about arbitrage! (See www.laybackandgetrich.com/spymare-review-trial-conclusion).Unlike many such products, Spymare accesses bookie sites directly, rather than simply scraping all its data from odds comparison sites. This makes its arbs much more up to date and valuable.A further advantage with Spymare and indeed with any horse-racing arbitrage solution is that it pretty much stops you worrying about palpable errors. They are extremely rare on horse-racing markets, as the latter are so efficient and move so fast.

    Spymare even comes with a three days free option to allow you time to make enough money to buy the product!A third option thats also good value is to try Mike Cruickshanks Arb Alarm service yes, he of Bonus Bagging fame. Like Spymare, Mike focuses on back-and-lay arbs meaning one half of your arb will almost certainly be placed at Betfair but he does

    cover more sports than just horse racing. I had a look at Mikes service, and came away with mixed feelings; but also found plenty of my readers keen to jump to his defence. Without a doubt, its extremely good value when compared to premium products like Mathbet, but then so it should be, as it is quite a bit less ambitious. It is backed up by tremendous customer service, as well as the usual ClickBank warranty, so you cannot lose by giving it a spin. But its probably best regarded as a helpful (and cheap!) introduction, rather than the very last word on the subject.SummaryIt does require quite a patient, organised soul to work through a list of arbs, then go and place all the required bets on a swathe of bookmaker websites that all look and work differently. Whether the pay-off of risk-free, tax-free income is enough to justify the hassle is a personal decision, but a trial period will undoubtedly help you make up your mind.Sports arbitrage is undoubtedly one of the easiest ways of making tax-free cash open to anyone with a computer, and remarkably, the products you need are only a click away. I strongly recommend you con-sider it, either as an income streamin its own right, or which I prefer as a way of building or repairing my betting bank. And that about wraps up Pillar Six! I will be back next time with my seventh and final pillar, mysteri-ously entitled DashBoard Betting!Lucy Collinswww.laybackandgetrich.com

    tHE StatMan PrESEntS

    How to Make great Profits from Placed Horses in Handicap races

    Thanks to a What Really Wins Money reader who contacted me recently and asked me to look into a particular statistical angle. There are at least two stats geeks out there, Im glad to see!The idea is that we are looking for poorly-handi-capped horses we can lay: where the official handi-capper, who allocates ratings that in turn are made in to racing weights per race, has the horses firmly in his or her grip.

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    We would have liked to have looked at the last three runs for each horse, but sadly my software wont give me that information, so I have amended the concept as below.laying the foundationsAs with all Statman articles, I will be basing my conclusions upon the last 10 years of statistical data, or more precisely from 1 January 2003 to date.Any Betfair Starting Price profit (BSP) assumes Bet-fairs 5% commission. Any profits and losses quoted are to a nominal 1 stake.the stats that sparked my interest!With prompting from What Really Wins Money reader Tony, I decided to look at the performances of horses that had come first, second or third in their last handicap race, and were contesting a handicap again in their next race. This is the kind of race we will be focusing on in this article:

    This is a typical race card at www.racingpost.com and is free to access. I have arrowed the two key areas. The first thing we must do is ensure the race is a handicap. Quite simply, the race will have the word handicap in the title.The second arrow on the left is the form column, which details the form for each horse.Truckers Darling would be of interest here. Why? Lets look at the form in greater detail:Truckers Darlings form reads 209113, which is read from left to right (latest on the right). In Trucker Darlings last race, he finished third.

    Here is the statistical data for the last 10 years for handicap horses who finished first, second or third in their last handicap race and are contesting another handicap race today.I have looked at the stats for handicaps and nurser-ies (a nursery is a two-year-old handicap), at all race courses, over all goings, and distances, and race

    codes (Flat and Jumps).Qualifiers Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss

    SPProfit/Loss Betfair SP

    197,838 27,777 17,0061 14.04% -34,360.71 -7,383.53

    This is very definitely not a backing system, I think youll agree. A 14.04% strike rate over 10 years is highly consistent (consistently bad!) and leads me to conclude that we should be looking at laying these horses on betting exchanges such as www.betfair.com, rather than backing them.The one negative with this highly promising laying idea is the large number of qualifying bets. Perhaps a betting bot could be employed? It would certainly be a busy bot.With this large number of qualifiers, I looked at employing some filters in order to refine my search and reduce qualifiers to a more manageable number.

    In this second phase of my statistical search, I looked this time at horses that had finished second and third last time out (I take out the winners on this occa-sion). Here are the 10-year stats:Qualifiers Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss

    SPProfit/Loss Betfair SP

    126,719 16,292 110,427 12.86% -23,382.32 -6,402.09

    The number of qualifiers has been reduced I suppose, from 197,000 to 126,000; an improvement of sorts.In order to reduce the number of qualifying horses further, I decided to look at the individual stats for horses that finished first last time out, then look at the individual stats for horses who finished second last time out, and finally third last time out.

    First place only last time out:Quali-fiers

    Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP

    Profit/Loss Betfair SP

    71,118 11,485 59,683 16.15% -10,977.38 -2,550.42

    Second place only last time out:Quali-fiers

    Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP

    Profit/Loss Betfair SP

    62,967 8,784 54,183 13.95% -12,169.36 -4,863.04

    Third place only last time out:Quali-fiers

    Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP

    Profit/Loss Betfair SP

    63,752 7,508 56,244 11.78% -11,212.97 -2,258.36

    Quite clearly, the number of qualifying bets is reduced and the strike rate for third-placed horses is very poor for backers (but is music to the ears of layers!). These horses should not be backed should they?! That is becoming clearer and clearer!

  • 8digging a little deeper

    We now have the stats for horses that finished first, second or third in their last race. I next decided to look at qualifying horses in handicaps on the All-Weather (easily identifiable by the AW after a courses name at www.racingpost.com) and compare that with performance on the turf... All-weather only:Quali-fiers

    Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP

    Profit/Loss Betfair SP

    44,699 6,891 37,808 15.42% -7,131.65 -1,430.07

    Turf only:Quali-fiers

    Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP

    Profit/Loss Betfair SP

    84,863 11,467 73,396 13.51% -14,768.02 -2,970.22

    The poor performance figures (for backers) contin-ues.Having looked at the performance on the Flat, lets look at how these first, second and third last time out fared over Hurdles and Chase fences.Hurdles only: (the word Hurdle will appear some-where in the race title).Quali-fiers

    Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP

    Profit/Loss Betfair SP

    35,585 4,557 31,028 12.81% -7,597.02 -2,342.78

    Chases (the word Chase or Steeplechase will appear somewhere in the race title):Quali-fiers

    Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP

    Profit/Loss Betfair SP

    32,691 4,862 27,829 14.87% -4,864.02 -630.06

    The Betfair SP Profit/Loss figure is greatly reduced for qualifiers in chase races. As this is turning into a laying system, perhaps we can leave chase races alone in order to eke out the maximum profit pos-sible.We are yet to look at the performance of qualify-ing horses in terms of their position in the betting marketFavourites only all handicaps:Quali-fiers

    Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP

    Profit/Loss Betfair SP

    44,538 11,955 32,583 26.84% -3,879.37 -1,496.67

    First or second favourites all handicapsQuali-fiers

    Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP

    Profit/Loss Betfair SP

    77,848 17,802 60,046 22.87% -8,212.05 -3,029.78

    First, second or third favourites all handicapsQuali-fiers

    Winners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss SP

    Profit/Loss Betfair SP

    105,473 21,427 84,046 20.32% -12,335.71 -4,052.21

    Lastly, a quick look by age gave the following stats: Age Quali-

    fiersWinners Losers Strike Rate Profit/Loss

    SPProfit/Loss Betfair SP

    2 8,464 1,175 7,289 13.88% -1,627.05 -519.833 43,407 6,815 36,592 15.7% -6,110.77 -425.544 32,838 4,757 28,081 14.49% -5,268.00 -1,200.225 27,953 3,916 24,037 14.01% -4,869.42 -1,527.296 25,595 3,576 22,019 13.97% -4,320.20 -1,086.937 21,981 2,980 19,001 13.56% -4,015.18 -1,373.758 16,245 2,143 14,102 13.19% -3,017.25 -1,010.309 10,656 1,273 9,383 11.95% -2,475.98 -1,186.7610 5,960 659 5,301 11.06% -1,449.78 -622.9811 2,903 311 2,592 10.71% -649.84 -296.5112 1,209 115 1,094 9.51% -371.45 -208.7713 485 48 437 9.9% -110.05 -35.8914 117 8 109 6.84% -56.25 -46.7415 23 1 22 4.35% -17.50 -17.5416 2 0 2 0.00% -2.00 -2.00

    It seems that the older the horse, the poorer the strike rate for backers.conclusions:

    The sheer numbers of qualifying horses is a slight concern, but this looks to be a simple system for layers to profit from long term. We have gone through a number of different statistical angles and none really stands out.I suppose we can ignore chase races in this instance, and if you really wanted to limit the number of bets, then a focus on three-year-old horses who qualify would be the option it may not be as profitable, but with the lowest return on investment they hit the best profit-per-pound risked as a lay in my book, and could be an optional alternative with an average of 12 bets a day!Use this stat analysis as follows:

    i. Log on to www.racingpost.com or look at the hard copy or your favourite newspaper (ones with good racing coverage).

    ii. Look for races with the word handicap or nursery (two-year-old handicaps) in the title.

    iii. Ignore races with the words chase or steeple-chase in the title.

    iv. Make a note of any and all horses who have the numbers 1, 2 or 3 nearest to their name in the form column (i.e. their most recent run).

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    v. Lay all of those horses on Betfair.vi. I suggest starting with smallest stakes to begin

    with, as there are a lot of selections per day to cope with and there will be losing days as well as (more) winning ones.

    vii. If you are looking for an easier-to-use version with less bets, then all the age ranges above show a profit of some kind you could limit your bets accordingly by picking your own age range and/or race type (I dont advise chases as they look the least profitable) the choice is yours.

    Thanks to the Statman for that. Now a look ahead to the Grand National

    Six Factors for grand national Profits

    5 April 2014 will see the race which stops a nation. Heres a quick guide to the six factors you should be looking out for, in order to narrow down the mas-sive 40-runner field into horses most likely, based on winning profiles from past races.

    The six factors are age, weight, experience, trainers tricks, stamina, and handicap rating.I have listed below the key stats and trends you need in each category. Nearer to race time, make sure you check out www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk and my Twitter @whatreallywins where Ill be going through the finalised field and picking the horses that best fit the best profile.

    agE The ideal horse should be aged between 8 and 12 years.

    Thirteen of the last 19 winners were aged 9 or 10 years.

    Nine-year-olds have the best record since 1970 with 13 winners.

    Ten-year-olds have won 10 Grand Nationals since 1970. They have won four of the last six nationals.

    Eleven-year-olds have won nine Grand Nation-als in the last 33 years, but HAVE won the last two Grand Nationals (Neptune Collonges and Auroras Encore).

    WEigHt 11 stone 6 lbs or under is the ideal weight. Imagine having to carry a huge weight a huge distance over those huge obstacles!

    Since the war, only six Grand Nationals were won by horses carrying more than 11 stone 5 lbs, and Red Rum won twice.

    Eighteen of the last 20 winners carried 11 stone 3 lbs or less.

    Only seven horses have carried more than 11 stone to victory since 1970: Red Rum (twice 1974, 1977), LEscargot (1975), Grittar (1982), Corbiere (1983), Hedgehunter (2005), Dont Push It (2010) and Neptune Collonges (2012).

    EXPEriEncEThe ideal horse will have:

    Won a chase over at least 3 miles in his career; Placed over 3 miles 2 furlongs or further; Ran in at least eight chases in his career; Had at least three preparation (prep) runs; Had a run within 53 days of running in the National;

    Won a chase worth at least 28K.Furthermore:

    Each of the last 10 Grand National winners have run at least 10 times over fences.

    Every winner in the last 10 years has won a chase worth at least 17,000.

    Look for previous course runners who may not necessarily have won or placed, but have competed and completed over Grand National fences.

    trainErS tricKS Seven of the last 10 winners ran over hurdles in the season they won the Grand National are they running over hurdles to protect their chase mark?

    Only two winners have been trained in France.StaMina

    Look for horses with proven stamina (see Expe-rience above). Horses should ideally have won a chase over at least 3 miles, or at least been placed over 3 miles 2 furlongs.

    Look for horses who have completed the course without winning.

    HandicaP ratingConcentrate on horses rated between 136 and 157 on the day of the race.bottom line:Ill be showing you how to check out each of these

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    stats using the Racing Post at www.whatreallywin smoney.co.uk as soon as the field is finalised a bit nearer the race time. Ill take you on a video tour of the Racing Post web-site and show you how you can quickly shortlist the horses most likely to perform well based on past stats and sequences.

    tHE PatriarcH PrESEntS

    Find big Priced Winners during the Flat Season With this Proven Handicap System

    So, thats Cheltenham gone for another year, leav-ing behind a bundle of memories, pleasant or painful, depending on how youve done... Now its time for the start of the Flat Season and the Grand National. Im going to give a tip for the National and then an old plan for the Flat. Many punters regard the National as something of a lottery (its perhaps ironic that the first winner of the race in 1839 was named Lottery!), but that great gambler of yesteryear, Alex Bird, didnt seem to think so; he had some of his biggest bets, and wins, in the race. Last year I backed Teaforthree and actually thought I might have got the winner, but no, it was run out of it and ended up third. Still, the each-way bet was a con-solation. Ive backed it again this year and hope for an improvement of two places. This is not altogether impossible. It seems to be in good fettle and, with 10 stone 12lbs on its back, is carrying 5lbs less than last year. I got on at 22-1, but its less now. Anyway, thats my tip for whatever its worth.Since I wrote the above, Ive learned that Teaforthree is going to be the mount of A.P. McCoy, so I might increase my stake, although the 22-1 has gone.Whenever you think of the Grand National, its impossible not to think of Bechers Brook that famous fence, not so fearsome now as it once was but still a formidable jump. But who or what was Becher in the first place? So, lay aside your study of the form of the races 40 runners for a moment and Ill tell you. Its a good story and I hope youll enjoy it.It was named after a Captain Martin Becher who rode in that first Grand National of 1839. He had served with the Duke of Wellington in the Napole-

    onic Wars but on his return from them, he resumed his passion for cross-country chasing, where he was a prolific winner. But he had other abilities that I find amazing: apparently he could run round a room, up the walls, something like a wall-of-death trick motor-cyclist, even giving the ceiling a kick. Furthermore, from a standing position he could jump up onto a rooms mantelpiece. But its what happened in that 1839 Grand National that I find most endearing. By now, aged 40, he was aboard a horse called Conrad that set off in front, and when he came to the first main obstacle, a brook, Conrad suddenly stopped, sending Captain Becher over the fence and into the water. There he lay in the water until the whole field had passed and then emerged sodden and complaining bitterly (and this is where I raise a glass to the cap-tain) that he had never realised how vile water tasted without the benefit of whisky! He re-mounted, but fell at the second brook, whereupon he gave up on the Grand National for good. But it never forgot him, preserving his name at the brook to this day.big-priced winners this Flat seasonFor the start of the new Flat season I have an old system from around 25 years ago that seems almost too good to be true, with winners at 20-1, 14-1 (twice), 12-1, 10-1, etc. I have all these results but the only trouble is that it seems to give very few selections. However, I have a suggestion that will increase the number of our selections but whether it will harm our success rate is another matter. The figures I have are for 43 bets and 15 winners, which is very impres-sive at the big prices of the winners. Ill describe the thinking behind the system first and then suggest the best way to find any possible bets.

    We are looking purely at handicaps and the winners of these turning out again within 14 days. The race following their win must be a rise in class, and this is where the system differs from most others which look for a drop in class or similar class. With the rise in class, the winner will have less weight to carry than in its winning race, and it is this difference in weight which is central to the system. This weight difference must be 14lbs or more. So, if in the race it won it carried 9st 2lbs, then in the raised class race it must not carry more than 8st 2lbs. One other thing the race it won must have had at least 16 runners.My suggestions, and they are no more than that, to

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    increase the number of possible selections would be to decrease the number of runners in the qualifying race from 16 to perhaps 14. And again, to reduce the weight drop from 14 lbs to 12, or even 10. I just wonder how that would doI am well aware of the work involved with the pos-sibility of finding no selections, so patience is of the essence. Anyway, heres how I would set about iti. Look in all handicap races on the Flat for win-

    ners last time out, running again within 14 days.How do we identify a handicap race? Much like the Statmans article, we will shortlist any race on the Flat only which has the word handicap in its title. As I write, we are in the midst of the Jumps season, so please forgive me, as my example is from the Jumps arena, but will serve to illustrate what you should be looking for.Go to www.racingpost.com, Cards, and Todays Cards.Here is a good example of what to look for (remem-ber this is taken from the Jumps and is for illustrative purposes only this system is for the Flat Season)

    Look for the word handicap in the title at any Flat race meeting. Note down also the class of race. Here the horse is running in a Class 5 race.Focusing on According To Them, I will show this horses information in detail below:

    The arrow pointing to the 1 shows us that Accord-ing To Them won his last race. The arrow pointing to the 14 shows us that According To Them last raced 14 days ago. The horse therefore qualifies so far (remembering you will be focusing solely on the Flat race meetings those not over hurdles and fences).Check these for the following in their previous race: that it was a handicap race with 16 or more runners.How do we do this?At www.racingpost.com, simply click on the horses name, and this will gain you access to his past form..

    Our focus in this case turns to the horses last race (24 February). That race should have been a handi-cap (notice the letters Hc under Race Conditions? This tells us it was a handicap), and the horse should have ran in a 16-runner race (look at race outcome and you will see that According To Them finished first of four runners (1/4) so does not qualify. If this was a 16-runner race, the 4 would have been replaced with a 16).The horse must also have won in a lower class of race than it is running in today. Under Race Condi-tions you will see C4: this signifies a Class 4 race

    .

    Todays race is a Class 5. For this horse to qualify as a bet, it would need to be Class 3 (a class higher than the Class 4 race he won last time out).ii. That it carried 14lbs or more than it is set to

    carry in its present race (there are 14lbs in a stone).

    For this part of the system, we need to compare the horses weight when it won (in our example, that race on 24 February), to the horses weight in this next race (the Anise Catering Handicap Hurdle in the first screenshot).

    Look at the Race Outcome again, and youll see in brackets (14L Present To You 11-9). This translates as the horse winning by 14 lengths with Present To You in second, and for our purposes here, According To Them carried 11 stone 9 lbs.Returning to todays race:

    I have arrowed the horses weight today, which is 11 stone 9 lbs. There is no difference in weights. In order for the horse to qualify as a bet, it would have carried 11 stone 9 lbs in its first race, and is set to carry 14lbs less (14lbs is 1 stone), or in this case, 10 stone 9lbs or less, in its next race.I hope you can follow the methodology. The Flat season is yet to get going, so finding an actual example is difficult. Clive will be posting selections when they appear at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. This is a system with very stringent rules so there will be long periods without selections. Thanks to the Patriarch for that. Lets see how my Home-Grown systems are faring up

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    rEviEWS:

    Home-grown betting Systems Update

    This month, I want to take a look at how riskier staking plans can really enhance profits, par-ticularly when laying. Ill be introducing you to new Home-Grown betting systems at www.whatreally winsmoney.co.uk over the coming month.Do note that all selections for all Home-Grown sys-tems mentioned in this article are available daily, and for free, at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk for all What Really Wins Money subscribers.This month I want to look at alternative staking plans, the kinds of staking plans which may engen-der an increase in risk, but with said increase in risk, these staking plans can increase profits considerably and outperform basic level stakes.laying the favourite in irish bumpersThis strategy is simplicity itself. Look for the words INH Flat Race in the race title at the Race Cards in Irish Jumps venues, and lay the favourite.We have now had 49 selections since November 2012, with a 66% strike rate.A 100 starting betting bank, laying favourites in these INH Flat races (also known as Bumpers), to level stakes (10 for illustration) has turned into 306.The profit graph shows a slight dip as the winters Jumps season winds down:

    This is the simplest staking plan. If you want to take more risk, and with more risk more reward, here are a couple of staking plans which might interest youthe basic lay ladderA lay ladder is a loss-recovery staking plan, so is higher risk than level stakes, but profits can be doubled, or trebled if the staking plan is used with

    the right selections at the right price (and with favourites, we are of course always laying the lowest priced horse in the race).This lay ladder lasts for three lays. We look to win a certain predetermined amount (in my case 5) when each horse loses. If the horse wins its race, the lay ladder will seek to win our target profit, as well as the losses from the last lay. As the lay ladder runs for a sequence of only three bets, risk should be kept to a minimum.Heres an example:

    The odds are in the second column: 1 stands for win, and 2 stands for loss. When laying, we want a horse to lose, so are looking for a 2.Lets look at the lay ladder here, and this is a worst-case scenario because all three horses won their races. In the first race, we lay a horse at odds of 1.39, in order to win 5. The horse wins its race. We lose a liability of 1.95.In bet two, we lay a horse at odds of 2.94. In this instance we want to win our 5 target, as well as the loss of 1.95.This horse wins its race and we lose a total of 13.48.In bet three, we lay a horse at odds of 2.64. In this instance we want to win our 5 target, as well as the lost 1.95 and lost 14.48, totalling 20.43.The horse wins its race and we lose a total of 33.51.This is the worst-case scenario and you must be will-ing to accept these losses before you embark on this kind of lay ladder. Heres why I think this kind of lay ladder might work when laying favourites... Look at the profit graph:

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    Since November 2012, the longest losing sequence has been three bets, which fits in perfectly with this kind of lay ladder. the lay 1-4 staking plan

    The second staking plan, which increases profits for laying favourites in Bumpers in Ireland, is called Lay 1-4. (All of these staking plans can be found at www.stakingmachine.com.)What attracts me to this staking plan is that I know the maximum risk. The largest single stake will always be 40.What is Lay 1-4?This is a gentler loss-recovery staking plan. The idea here is to increase your stakes by 1 point after a winner (a losing lay), to a maximum of 4 points until the losses are recovered.Here is a sequence of bets that takes you from 1-4 stakes:

    We are looking at 6 November. We lay a horse at odds of 2.7 to win 10. The horse wins its race, so we lose our liability of 17.The Series column keeps track of the accumulated losses. So, for 6 November a figure of -17 appears in this column.In the second bet (7 November), we lay a horse at odds of 3.7 and increase our stake to 20. The horse wins its race (we lose) and we lose a liability of 54. The accumulated losses in the Series column now increases to -71.In bet three on 7 November, we lay a horse at odds of 3.35 and increase our stake to 30. The horse loses its race (we win) and we win 28.50. The current accumulated loss therefore reduces by 28.50 to 42.50.In bet four on 8 November, we lay a horse at odds of 2.98 and our stake remains at 30 (remember our stake will remain the same until the loss is recov-ered). The horse loses its race so we win another 28.50. The accumulated losses reduce further to -14 thanks to these two consecutive successful lays.

    In bet five, we lay a horse at odds of 1.52 and our stake remains at 30. This horse wins its race (we lose) and we lose 15.60. The series column shows us that the accumulated losses increase to 29.60.Bet six is the final bet of this sequence. We lay a horse at odds of 2.43 and increase our stakes to 40. This horse loses and we win 38. The previous losses have now been recovered and we return to a 10 stake for the next race.Laying favourites in Irish Bumpers using Lay 1-4 has turned a 100 betting bank into 902. As I said earlier, the highest stake is 40 and the liability will remain low as we are always dealing with favourites.Do check out www.thestakingmachine.com/lay14.php for a closer look at this staking plan. There are those who want to stick with level stakes laying, and good luck to them. There are, though, a number of different strategies which will benefit from a more adventurous staking plan approach. The two I have showcased here increase profits markedly while not creating undue risk. Lay 1-4 particularly appeals, as we are dealing with laying favourites so odds will not be unduly worrying.novice Hurdle third-favourite laying

    This is another lay system which is simplicity itself. We look to lay the third-favourite in Novice Hurdle races in the UK and Ireland.It is a volatile system if we include all selections. However, if laying third-favourites in Novice Hurdles at odds of 6 or lower, the system is a lot smoother. A 47-point profit is excellent for such a simplistic idea.As with the Irish Bumper favourites, those willing to take a little more risk will be rewarded with a little more profit.

    If laying third-favourites in Novice Hurdles, at odds of 6 or lower, a 57-point profit has accrued since 2012.The higher-risk/higher-reward staking plan Id like to look at this month is called Lay % Recovery. Please take a look at www.thestakingmachine.com/lay_percentage_recovery.php for a fuller explanation of this type of staking plan. Loss-recovery staking plans always carry greater risk, particularly when laying. This risk, though, seems to have translated in greater profits.

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    An 83% strike rate, as well as the longest losing run over 2 years being only three bets, allows this staking plan to flourish.

    Starting with a nominal 1,000, we look to lay 2% stakes. The betting bank has increased to 2,048.laying vulnerable favouritesIn Augusts What Really Wins Money, I introduced you to two Overwhelm betting systems.One of these Overwhelm betting systems was called the Vulnerable Favourites Lay Strategy. Quite simply, we look for a Racing Post betting forecast where the first four horses in the betting are tightly matched.Here is a quick example:355 Musselburgh BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 El Namoose, 4/1 Warriors Tale, 9/2 Racing Europe, 5/1 Gurkha Brave.In this race, the second horse is only 0.5 point bigger than the favourite. The third horse is only 0.5 point bigger in odds than the second-favourite; and the fourth-favourite is only 0.5 point bigger than the third-favourite.The inference here is that, with such a tight head of the betting market, surely the Betting Forecast favou-rite is there under sufferance, rather than being an outstanding candidate for favouritism.A 26-point profit since January 2014 laying horses priced between 4 and 14 has absorbed a recent poor run, just as I write. This remains a laying system I like, for its simplicity and long-term potential.A 112-point profit since January 2013 to level stakes is not to be sniffed at. In this month, where we are opting for high-risk/high-reward alternatives, there are a number of staking plans which sky-rocket this profit level. But remembering that we are laying horses priced at between odds of 4 and 14, any loss-retrieval staking plan, for this strategy, could result in huge losses.I will stick with level stakes, which have served me so well from January 2013 to date.two-horse race placersThis Home-Grown strategy was the eye-catcher for 2013, and before I explain how to make selections, heres a look at the profit graph for 2013... (We place back any selections priced between odds of 1.1 and 1.5 in the place only market.)

    Now you can see what this place-only strategy appealed to me enough to warrant continuation into 2014.There was a slight lull, but profits rose soon after, to finish the year with a 47-point gain. Whilst on the subject of high-risk/high-reward staking plans, a plan called the Pro Plan, from www.stakingmachine.com and which I shared with you in 2013, turned 100, yes a measly 100, into nearly 4,900!The Pro Plan looks to win a target profit per race and is best explained here at www.thestakingmachine.com/pro.php. As the strike rate was so high, I looked to win 10% of the betting bank per race.What of 2014?If you look at the 2013 graph above, youll see a period of loss at the beginning of that year. Well, this is exactly what we are experiencing at present. A 100 betting bank stands at 84 currently, backing all selections at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 to place.The Pro Plan which featured so prominently in 2013, has turned the 100 betting bank into 193, so may be worth persevering with in 2014?As to the strategy, well, we look for two-horse races in the Betting Forecast in the Racing Post, and back the Live Market favourite to place only.Here is an example of the type of race we look for530 Wolves BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Wild Desert, 2/1 Scribe, 9/2 Bute Hall.Can you see that this is apparently a two-horse race with a noticeable gap to the third horse Bute Hall?This is definitely a strategy to recommend for 2014. The price graph can be made less volatile by only backing qualifying selections between the odds of 1.1 and 1.5.bottom linePlease follow these strategies and their selections at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. I will be adding more ideas, as long as they are showing a current

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    profit, in the coming month at the website. And dont forget EVA!EVA is my Each-way Value Alternative daily tips post at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk, which has been picking winners as high as 28 and placed horses at odds as high as 45. Selections are free to What Really Wins Money sub-scribers and are really doing the business in 2014. With that said, lets now turn to other tipsters and systems that weve been testing and see how theyre doing

    rEviEWS:

    Systems and tipsters Update

    Welcome to the monthly round-up of whats hot and whats not in the world of sports tipsters. This is a snapshot of the systems and tipsters we are trialling. For a full round-up, please visit www.wha-treallywinsmoney.co.uk.Whats hot?Alex Rey Sports This is a tipster from www.tip-sterwarehouse.co.uk. Alex Reys focus is mostly on football, tennis, snooker and golf. A 50-point betting bank is required.From 1 January 2014 to date, bets so far have been odds on, with the occasion each-way bet on the golf. 14.22-points profit for January 2014 and 6.07-points profit for February 2014 follows from a poor end to 2013 with a 7-point loss in the last three months.Only two defeats in January saw an excellent month. Three of five losing bets in February were higher-risk each-way bets and a treble. So perhaps Alex Rey should continue to focus on the odds on bets? An interesting, albeit unexciting, service which does require a high strike rate given the short odds.Andy Bell Racing This is a service from www.betfan.com which we began proofing in September. This horse-racing tipster uses win singles and each-way bets. From our proofing period, bets of maxi-mum confidence use 10 points, so an each-way bet risking 10 points will be 5 points each way.Since testing began:

    September: 36-point profit October: 51-point loss November: 86-point profit

    December: 100.72-point profitMoving into 2014, January saw a decent return of 100.7 points, thanks to two each-way winners and an each-way Trixie really boosting the bank on 28 Janu-ary 2014. February has been the poorest month for a while with only a 9-point profit.

    The tipping of Jezki and Tour de Champs on the first day of Cheltenham has produced a profit for March.

    This looks to be a service worth following. At 58 per month its a little pricey and you must factor in the points staking which is so prevalent of Betfan.com products (it has a nifty way of inflating the returns if you work up to 10-point stakes).Ante-Post King From www.tipsterwarehouse.co.uk and costing 19.95 per month and 39.95 per quarter. A 100-point betting bank is required. A very interesting service for those who like to bet at some-time-decent odds.Sports covered so far (testing has begun in January 2014) are golf, darts, tennis, rugby union, the Winter Olympics and rugby league. Highlights include Li Na winning the Aussie Open at 14/1, and Cabrera-Bello 40/1 each-way place (9-point profit).

    February has seen a fair share of big wins, the high-lights being Coetzee in the Joburg Open (golf) and Jason Day in the Accenture Play on 19 February at 20/1; 42 points profit for February is superb thanks to the two big wins. This service is in sharp contrast to the odds-on services offered by Alex Rey and Goals Galore. With big odds comes the attached long losing runs, but if the tipster can perform as the Ante-Post King currently is doing, then you would be a please customer so far in 2014. There are a few open bets for March which are yet to settle as I write. The Gambling Don This is another horse racing tipster from www.betfan.com. Stakes are typically 4 or 5 points to win and 3 points each way, although the Gambling Don increases and decreases stakes as per his greater confidence in some selections.

    As well as traditional bets, the Gambling Don also offers the odd column tip, such as the one he gave out on 5 January which won at 5/1. These are not recorded in the official results though, so bear that in mind.A lack of consistency profit-wise marks out the Gambling Don: a 24.35-points loss in October was followed by 75.89-points profit in November, then a 36.85-points loss in December, and January 2014

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    saw 79.84 points profit (salvaged by three wins in the last three January bets). February was terrible with a 44.47-point loss.Please put these points profit figures in the context of the points staked (as mentioned at the beginning).I am not sure as a punter I would like such a lurch from profit to loss to profit to loss on such a con-sistent basis. It is not psychologically reassuring. A 50-point profit though, since the trial has started, sug-gests that the long-term focus should be considered.Whats cold?Favourite Lays www.favouritelays.com This is another service offered by www.betsfortoday.com and follows their general criteria for their lay sys-tems, i.e. they do not lay over 3.99 /4 decimal odds.My trial began on 1 October 2013, and that month produced a loss of 1.78 points. November improved markedly with a profit of 5.42 points. December ended with a marginal gain of 1.68 points. January 2014 saw a loss of 7.88 points compounded by a terrible run of four losing lays in the last two days of the month. This contrasts with February 2014, where the end of the month saw a run of four winning lays, which brought a marginal 2.75-point profit.

    That word marginal keeps cropping up. January was a poor start and the winning months either side have not been earth-shattering. At 27 per month, you would be in profit since Octo-ber, but only just, because of the poor January 2014. A lot more required. First Place Winners www.firstplacewinners.co.uk First Place Winners is a horse-racing tipster whose selections are backed in the following manner:

    Place 20% of your stake on the horse to win. Place 80% of your stake on the horse to place.

    What is place-only betting?I refer you to the each-way probability article in this months newsletter. When we bet on a horse to place, we are betting that the horse will finish

    First or second in a 7-runner race. First, second or third in an 8-runner+ race. First, second, third or fourth in a 16+ runner handicap race.

    There seems to be trouble with the website at present as regards layout. I am not sure whether it is under-going any changes.Testing began on 1 October 2013, and performance

    has been poor to date: a loss of 16 points. This is a service which has a number of false dawns. The end of February saw an excellent run, which was ended by a run of nine horses not placing. 8 March saw a winner at 14.4 followed by a winner on 9 March, which has cut into losses considerably.These false dawns must be frustrating for subscrib-ers. There is not a high enough strike rate of horses placing, when not winning. And theres an awful long way to go to get back the current losses. Goals Galore Goals Galore is a football tipping service from www.tipsterwarehouse.co.uk. It is a straightforward backing service, focusing on odds on selections. The betting bank advised is 50 points, meaning a 10 stake will require a 500 betting bank.Occasionally there are doubles and trebles, which will increase the potential return to evens and above. The highest odds selection on record is 3.68 decimal odds for an Over 2.5 Goals treble.Given the title Goals Galore, the focus is specifi-cally on Over/Under 1.5 Goals and Over/Under 2.5 Goals bets.This is a service with a high strike rate (as is expected when you are tipping almost exclusively odds-on shots). It is ideal, therefore, for those who want some emotional stability in their betting (remember Lucy Collins article on emotion?).A 1.76-point loss since the start of the year is not ideal for a service with that high strike rate. Recent losses have been accumulated in the Holland second division; in fact nine of the most recent losers have come from Dutch football. This is a big haul, given the odds-on status of the goals bets, and improve-ment is required with, perhaps, a venture into more consistent leagues? Disappointing so far for a service which should profit consistently, given the bets are odds on.Thats all from this months newsletter. So, until next month, have a fun and profitable time.