WTO Information technology WTO Information technology symposium.symposium.

"The Challenges ahead for the ITA with "The Challenges ahead for the ITA with Converging Technologies and IC Manufacturing Converging Technologies and IC Manufacturing Techniques"Techniques"

Ray Foy – Intel Corp. EMEA Customs & Ray Foy – Intel Corp. EMEA Customs & Licensing managerLicensing manager

Moore’s LawMoore’s Law

The number of transistors on a chip will double every 18-24 monthsThe number of transistors on a chip will double every 18-24 monthsThe number of transistors on a chip will double every 18-24 monthsThe number of transistors on a chip will double every 18-24 months

1,0001,000

10,00010,000

100,000100,000

1,000,0001,000,000

10,000,00010,000,000

100,000,000100,000,000

1,000,000,0001,000,000,000

19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010

40044004

80808080

80868086

80088008

PentiumPentium486 DX486 DX

386386286286

Pentium IIPentium IIPentium IIIPentium III

Pentium 4Pentium 4

1 Billion transistors before 20101 Billion transistors before 2010

42 Million42 Million

# of transistors

Inte

r co

nn

ect

s

Transistor

• Precision at the molecular and atomic levels.

• 23 masking layers. • Some layers are

thinner than a virus.

Building an Integrated CircuitBuilding an Integrated Circuit

1/10

th T

hic

k nes

s o

f H

um

an

Ha i

r!

~ 60 days to manufacture

Process Trends: New Generation Process Trends: New Generation

Every 2 YearsEvery 2 Years 1000010000

10001000

100100

1010

1010

11

0.10.1

0.010.01

MicronMicronNano-Nano-metermeter

Nominal feature sizeNominal feature size

NanotechnologyNanotechnology

130nm130nm90nm90nm

70nm70nm50nm50nm

Gate LengthGate Length

Source: IntelSource: Intel

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Processor TechnologyProcessor Technology1 nanometer = 1 billionth of a meter1 nanometer = 1 billionth of a meter

Processor TechnologyProcessor Technology1 nanometer = 1 billionth of a meter1 nanometer = 1 billionth of a meter

Silicon ProcessSilicon ProcessTechnologyTechnology 800nm800nm 600nm600nm 350nm350nm 250nm250nm 180nm180nm 130nm130nm

TransistorsTransistors(Millions(Millions))

PentiumPentium®®

ProcessorProcessor

PentiumPentium®® Pro ProProcessorProcessor

PentiumPentium®® II IIProcessorProcessor

PentiumPentium®® III IIIProcessorProcessor

PentiumPentium®® 4 4ProcessorProcessor

ItaniumItanium® ® 2 2 ProcessorProcessor

3.33.3

5.55.5

7.57.5

9.5 - 259.5 - 25

4242++

480480

Smaller, Faster, Better, Cheaper Smaller, Faster, Better, Cheaper

Average Transistor Price By YearAverage Transistor Price By Year

Source: Dataquest/Intel12/02Source: Dataquest/Intel12/02

0.0000001

0.000001

0.00001

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

'68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02

$$

Si Technology: Complexity Increasing Si Technology: Complexity Increasing ExponentiallyExponentially

Roadmap Trends: SummaryRoadmap Trends: Summary

More Speed per processors More Speed per processors More memory integrationMore memory integrationMore processors per coreMore processors per coreMore transistors per processor.More transistors per processor.More complex manufacturing. More complex manufacturing. Larger wafersLarger wafersNarrower circuits.Narrower circuits.

The boundaries of physical science are the The boundaries of physical science are the perennial challenge.perennial challenge.

TodayToday

2003/20042003/2004

2004/20052004/2005

2005/20062005/2006

Chip Scale Chip Scale Stacked PackageStacked Package

Folded StackedFolded StackedChip Scale PackageChip Scale Package

Next generation Next generation Multichip ModuleMultichip Module

Thru silicon and otherThru silicon and otheradvanced package optionsadvanced package options

SIP Technologies: SIP Technologies: Stacked Die + Stacked PackagesStacked Die + Stacked Packages

Stacked thin dieStacked thin die++

PackagingPackagingintegrationintegration

Stacked thin dieStacked thin die++

PackagingPackagingintegrationintegration

Microprocessor evolution – 1996 / 1997Microprocessor evolution – 1996 / 1997

Pentium® Pro Processor8473.30

L2 Cache/TAG/

Controller

CPU &L1 Cache/Controller

Pentium (R) II Processor 8473.30

Dual die Dual die processorprocessor

Cartridge Cartridge package.package.

Multichip side by side in packageMultichip side by side in package

Vertical stacked IC’s in packageVertical stacked IC’s in package

Integrated Circuit stacking.Integrated Circuit stacking.

Simple model – multi chipSimple model – multi chip . .

Multi- substrate / multi IC in Multi- substrate / multi IC in packagepackage

Processor package x sectionProcessor package x section

* data is run rate exiting the year. Source: Intel, *Other names and brands may be claimed as the property of others

All CPU development All CPU development on Dual/Multi-Coreon Dual/Multi-Core

All CPU development All CPU development on Dual/Multi-Coreon Dual/Multi-Core

Moving from Chips/Computer to Computers/Chip

Multi chips are already hereMulti chips are already here . .Multi chips are already hereMulti chips are already here . .

Processor x sectionProcessor x section

Processor packaging – The problem Processor packaging – The problem with passives!with passives!

Passive devices move Passive devices move classification outside classification outside HS 8542HS 8542

Passive devices move Passive devices move classification outside HS 8542classification outside HS 8542

The problem with passives.The problem with passives.

Integrated Passives (on silicon)Integrated Passives (on silicon)– passive components on silicon, created in the mass to all intents passive components on silicon, created in the mass to all intents

and purposes indivisible.and purposes indivisible.– Combined in multichip forms with other active IC’sCombined in multichip forms with other active IC’s

ALTERNATIVE TECHNOLOGYALTERNATIVE TECHNOLOGY– TO CERAMIC / OTHER FORMSTO CERAMIC / OTHER FORMS– SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SIZE.SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SIZE.– DRIVES FURTHER MINIATURISATION DRIVES FURTHER MINIATURISATION

– All products of the semiconductor industry.All products of the semiconductor industry.

BUT NOT ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT H.S.BUT NOT ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT H.S.

BROADBANDBROADBANDEntertainment,Entertainment,

E-Business, ServicesE-Business, Services

MEDIAMEDIAPre-Recorded ContentPre-Recorded Content

Personal MediaPersonal Media

BROADCASBROADCASTT

Services,Services,EntertainmentEntertainment

Any ContentAny Content11, Any Place, , Any Place, Any Device, Any TimeAny Device, Any Time

Digital Home VisionDigital Home Vision

1 As Authorized1 As Authorized

Digital Home:Digital Home:

All All DevicesDevices and and ContentContent are are going going DigitalDigital

InnovationInnovation

DemandDemand

COMPUTING

COMMUNICATIONS

All All computingcomputing devices devices communicatecommunicate

All All communicationcommunication devices devices computecompute

All All enabled enabled by by siliconsilicon

Convergence VisionConvergence Vision

Any Time, Any Time, Anywhere, Anywhere, Any DeviceAny Device

SummarySummary

MiniaturisingMiniaturising– Micron-scale to nano-scale. Micron-scale to nano-scale.

Functionalising.Functionalising.– Reduced size enables more functions in less Reduced size enables more functions in less

space (all on silicon)space (all on silicon)– More integration / more complexity.More integration / more complexity.

Converging. (computing and comunications)Converging. (computing and comunications)– Developers put more optimum functionality for Developers put more optimum functionality for

multiple application.multiple application.

The ChallengeThe Challenge

The HS is unable to cope with the advance of The HS is unable to cope with the advance of technology. The problem is NOW! technology. The problem is NOW! – All computing devices communicateAll computing devices communicate– All communication devices computeAll communication devices compute– All enabled by silicon.All enabled by silicon.

Silicon circuitry and high density packaging serve:Silicon circuitry and high density packaging serve:– energy conservationenergy conservation– MiniaturisationMiniaturisation– Complex multifunctionality.Complex multifunctionality.

The current HS should not be a limiter to ITA The current HS should not be a limiter to ITA expansion. expansion.