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8/8/2019 WWC India Retail
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2007
World Winning Cities Series
Emerging City Winners Proles
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The Geography of Opportunity
The “India 50”EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
India’s Retail AwakeningIndia’s retail sector is evolving at breakneck speed, uelled by a strong economy, avourable demographics, rising wealth levels, and
the rapidly changing liestyles and consumer aspirations o an ever growing middle class. Rarely a week goes by without major
announcements by retailers and property developers committing to aggressive programmes o retail expansion and shopping mall
development; or announcements about the arrival o new market entrants or the orging o new joint ventures with oreign retailers,
all eager to participate in an increasingly dynamic sector. India’s cities are witnessing a paradigm shi rom traditional orms o
retailing into a modern organised sector; a transormation that will no doubt accelerate over the coming decade. Te booming retail
sector is oering signicant new property opportunities, but also many challenges or a new market that is going through structural
change at an unprecedented rate.
Te demographic and economic statistics that underpin the growth o India’s retail sector are truly impressive, but in order to get
a realistic perspective on property opportunities, we need to comprehend how Indian consumer behaviour is changing; and to
understand how new retail geographies and retail ormats are likely to evolve in a country characterised by enormous cultural and
regional diversity. So to help uncover the potential o the Indian retail property market, Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj has embarked on
a programme o in-depth research to better understand the current and uture landscape o retail property in India.
A New Geography o Opportunity t
Tis report is the rst in a series on India Retail Futures. It reviews in brie the drivers o India’s booming retail market, and how
both retailers and the property sector are responding to the massive changes in the Indian retail environment. Te report’s primary
ocus, however, is to explain and predict the emerging geography o Indian retail activity and property opportunities. Most organised
retailing and retail property activity is still overwhelmingly concentrated in India’s two largest metros – Delhi/NCR (National
Capital Region) and Mumbai. Whilst the report concludes that there are considerable property opportunities in these two vast
cities, increasing competition combined with the growing opportunities in India’s regional markets is encouraging both retailers and
property developers to move into new and potentially more rewarding markets urther a eld. Organised retailing in India’s other
main cities, such as Bangalore, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Pune and Chennai is growing rapidly, but such is the pace o change, that many
smaller third tier cities are now rmly on the radar screen o the retail sector and mall developers.
With around 50 cities o over one million population, many o which are still largely untapped, there are clearly substantial
opportunities or the retail property sector. Domestic retailers and shopping mall developers are moving aggressively into India’s
smaller cities in order to gain rst mover advantage, to capture growing consumer markets and to respond to the strong demand or
branded goods. Tere is clearly a signicant requirement rom both the retail sector and the property industry to know where India’s
next growth opportunities are likely to be concentrated. W i n n i n g C i t i e s : I N D I A R E T A I L
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INDIAN OCEAN
JAMMU AND KASHMIR
HIMACHAL
PRADESH
UTTRAKHANDPUNJAB
HARYANA
RAJASTHAN UTTAR PRADESH
MADHYA PRADESHGUJARAT
MAHARASHTRA
Arabian Sea
CHHATTISGARH
ORISSA
JHARKHAND
BIHAR
MEGHALAYA
MANIPUR
NAGALAND
MIZORAMTRIPURA
Bay of Bengal
ASSAM
SIKKIM
ARUNACHA PRADESH
WEST BENGAL
ANDHRA
PRADESH
KARNATAKA
TAMIL NADU
KERALA
GOA
Pune
BengaluruChennai
Kochi
Hyderabad Vizag
Mangalore
Mysore
Coimbatore
Vijayawada
Madurai
Mumbai
KolkataVadodara
Surat
Nashik
Nagpur
Jamshedpur
Bhubaneshwar
Goa
Dhanbad AsansolBhopal
Jabalpur
Solapur
Kolhapur
Ahmedabad
Delhi
LudhianaChandigarh
Jaipur Lucknow
Amritsar
Agra
Kanpur
Indore
Allahabad
Meerut
PatnaVaranasi
GuwahatiJodhpur
Aurangabad
Srinagar
Panipat
India’s Emerging Retail Hierarchy
Maturing NCR/Delhi Mumbai
Transitional Bangalore Kolkata Hyderabad Chennai
Pune Ahmedabad
High Growth Chandigarh Ludhiana Jaipur Lucknow
Kochi Vadodara Surat
Emerging Indore Amritsar Jalandhar Mangalore
Nashik Bhubaneshwar Agra Vizag
Coimbatore Kanpur Nagpur Goa
Allahabad Mysore Jamshedpur Thiruvananthapuram
Nascent Jodhpur Patna Varanasi Meerut
Rajkot Aurangabad Bhopal Sonipat
Vijayawada Madurai Ranchi Guwahati
Jabalpur Asansol Dhanbad Panipat
Kolhapur Srinagar Solapur
The India 50
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India’s Retail Hierarchy-Characteristics
No oCities
Typical MetroPop’n (Mills)
Shopping MallDevelopment
Since:
% o NationalOrganised
Retailing (by 2008)
Typical no oshopping malls
(by 2008)
Format Opportnities
Matring 2 20 1999 0% 50-150
Large Mixed Use Malls
Speciality & Luxury Brands
Big Box
Neighbourhood Malls
†
†
†
†
Transitional 6 5-16 200 2% 20-0
Large Mixed Use Malls
Speciality & Luxury Brands
Big Box
Neighbourhood Malls
†
†
†
†
High Growth 7 2.5 2006 11% 5-10
Mixed Use Malls
Large Department Stores
Branded StoresBig Box
†
†
†
†
Emerging 16 1.5 2007-09 1% 2-5
Mixed Use Malls
Department Stores
Branded Stores
†
†
†
Nascent
19 < 1.5 2010 % 1-2
First Mover Advantage
100k + Shopping Malls
Supermarkets/Hypermarkets
†
†
†
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj Research
The Future: Promises and ProblemsTis report shows that the Indian retail market oers signicant opportunities or domestic and international retailers and property
developers/investors across a broad range o geographies and ormats. Rapidly changing consumer behaviour, new market entrants
and changing government policy will urther transorm the sector, and open up yet more opportunities. Te organised retail sector is
developing at breathtaking speed, and the insatiable demand or modern retail is ar outpacing supply. Te market has entered a very
exciting phase o evolution, but undoubtedly there will be losers as well as winners…
In the rush to expand retail ormats and build new malls, many retailers and developers have lacked strategic vision, and in a
booming market they have oen lost sight o the “end game”. Tere is also a huge amount o market hype, and a widening gap
between developers’ claims and what is actually happening on the ground. Te reality will be that many planned retail schemes will
not get built, and most o those that do eventually become operational will all well below international standards. As more choice
becomes available or the Indian consumer, many malls and retail concepts will ail the test o time.
Yet this “shake-out” will provide even greater opportunities or an elite group o visionary developers, owners and retailers who have
the scalability, the teams, the processes and the logistics required to ourish in this rapidly growing retail environment. Tey will
go on to set new benchmarks, not only or India, but or the world. Subsequent reports in the Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj series on
India Retail Futures will assess the ormulae or success in terms o retail ormats and asset management. Te Indian retail market is
ull o promise, but it is not or the aint hearted and success requires a deep understanding and knowledge o the Indian consumers
and their likely retail requirements.
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India Retail in
Brief The 21st Century Landscape:A Masterpiece o ModernisationRetailing is emerging as one o India’s most dynamic and ast
paced sectors. Te drivers o its upward growth trajectory hardly
need rehearsing, but they nonetheless help to explain why the
Indian retail market is seen by both domestic and international
retailers, as well as the property industry, as one o the globe’s
greatest untapped market:
Favourable Demographics – wo-thirds o India’s . billion
population is below 35. Te country’s median age is 24 years,comparing avourably with China where the median age is 33
years. India is home to 20% o the global population under
25 years. We are seeing a tidal wave o young adults entering
India’s consumer society with rising aspirations, new liestyle
requirements and an insatiable demand or consumer brands.
Rapid Urbanisation – Te country is urbanising at a rapid
rate, with almost 50 cities over one million population. India’s
“mega-cities” – Mumbai and Delhi – will be the world’s 2nd and
3rd largest cities by 205, providing massive concentrations o
retailing potential.
India’s Economy is Booming - Economic growth, currently
at circa 9% is supported by a rapidly expanding I/IES
sector, a deepening corporate base, growing FDI, economic
diversication and policy liberalisation. Most orecasters expect
7-9% annual growth over the next ve years, uelling strong
growth in consumer demand.
Growing Middle Classes – Estimates o the size o India’s
emerging middle classes vary enormously, but there is little
doubt that the numbers are large. Currently 70 million + earn
over $8,000 a year, a number that is expected to double by
20. We are also seeing the ascendancy o the “super rich”,with .6 million households bringing home over $00,000. Te
propensity o the middle classes to consume is rising, oiled
by easier availability o credit, income growth o around 5%
per annum, and a notable shi rom a “saving” to “spending”
mindset.
Te Emergence o Organised Retailing – A widely quoted
act is that 97% o retailing is still concentrated in traditional
neighbourhood “mom and pop” stores. In ew other countries
around the world is organised retailing so small. But India’s
cities are witnessing a paradigm shi rom traditional orms o
retailing into a modern organised sector requiring international
standard retail ormats, providing massive opportunities or the
property market. Tis pace o change will accelerate over the
coming decade.
India’s Vanguard ConsumersTe demographic and economic acts widely quoted are
undoubtedly impressive, but in order to assess the true nature
o property opportunities, we need to better understand the
deep and widespread transormation that is occurring in Indian
consumer behaviour due to changing liestyles, rising aspirations
and the emergence o a dynamic youth culture.
Working with Sociovision2
, experts in social change, Jones LangLaSalle Meghraj has looked at the changes in Indian society,
their impacts on consumerism and how this is eeding through
to shopping behaviour and property demand. Te research has
ocused on the emerging youthul, urban and relatively afuent
Vanguard Class that is the driving orce behind consumer
spending, new business activity, high-technology and workspace
innovations. Tis group includes circa 20 million people and
continues to expand. Hal o them are under 25 years, and most
have excellent education. Within the vanguard class, there
are couple o leading edge segments that are exerting a major
inuence on shopping behaviour:
Resourceul Young Women – Te growth in the emale
workorce has resulted in the emergence o “Resourceul Young
Women”, a group that are at the oreront o new India mores.
Tey are young, literate and resourceul; they place a heavy
emphasis on their careers and they have a very sel oriented
motivation or spending. Resourceul Young Women have a
signicant inuence on Indian retailing – and 46% o them see
shopping as a source o pleasure (compared to 36% globally).
For this inuential group, mall shopping is about “experience
and pleasure”, and not just about cost eciencies.
Young Urban Managers are the vibrant backbone o the Indianeconomy. Tey are highly entrepreneurial, hard working, money
ocused and are keen networkers. Teir shopping habits are
driven by a quest or status and economic advancement. With
their busy careers and limited leisure time, their shopping needs
are highly inuenced by accessibility and convenience. Te
demand or home delivery, particularly or convenience goods,
is very strong amongst this group.
2 See www.sociovision.com
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Among the vanguard class, our research identies our dierent
mindsets described below, which are o prime interest or the
retail sector. Retailers and developers need create shopping
experiences that appeal to these groups:
Golden Boys and Girls – are young, university educated andurbanised. Mumbai and New Delhi are their avoured cities.
Tey are thirsty or new consumer goods and designer brands,
especially I products and services. Tey are the prime target
or international retailers, but interestingly they still have one
oot deeply implanted in traditional Indian amily values. Tis
group will increasingly avour “hybrid” retail concepts that oer
the best o Western models, but also strongly reect their Indian
cultures.
Cosmopolitans – are less “show o” than the Golden Boys
and Girls. Tey incarnate the values o globe-trotting travel
and proessional mobility. Tey are early adopters o newtechnologies and buy into global brands. Bangalore is the natural
home o the “Cosmopolitans” and because o its cosmopolitan
demographics is requently used as a test market or new retail
concepts.
Reactives – are older managers, who are modern and keen to
break away rom rigid hierarchies and social boundaries. Tey
seek new skills, knowledge and proessional success. However,
they are less at ease with change in Indian society. Kolkata is a
city in which the “Reactives” nd their place.
Peaceul India – or this group consumption is linked to
aesthetics and renement. Tey are modern in their openness
to gender equality and quest or reconciliation. Chennai is an
attractive place to live or the “Peaceul India”
Seven Drivers o ConsumptionOur research identies seven drivers o consumption, which are
important components o spending and retailing activity:
Trill Pleasures – Tere is a strong desire in Indian society or
emotionally rewarding experiences. Mall shopping in India is
currently viewed as an “experience”, a leisure pursuit and a orm
o entertainment, which has encouraged huge ootalls in new
shopping malls. However, the challenge or many mall retailers
and owners is converting the Indian “window shopper” rom
browser to purchaser. Complexes that oer other entertainment
opportunities, such as multiplexes, are avoured by consumers.
Indians are avid cinema-goers, reecting their thirst or evasion,
romance and new orms o vicarious consumption.
Fusion Fever - Whilst the Indian middle classes are attracted
to global brands, they are still committed to their traditions
and culture. We are seeing a usion o modernity and tradition,
and the hybridization o Indian and “western” cultures, re-
enorced by the strong “Indian Brand”. Tis hybridization willincreasingly translate into new retail concepts.
Aesthetics - Indian society has a deep sense o aesthetics,
and home aesthetics are especially top o the mind to India’s
vanguard class. Home urnishings are central to the concept o
a good quality o lie, and retailers catering or this segment will
see strong growth.
Novelty – Te thirst or novelty is a undamental characteristic
o the “New India”, which is not just conned to the young.
Te taste or novelty is also driven by the need or learningand advancement through education. Te current novelty
value o shopping malls is high, but over time this will wane as
choice increases, and Indian shoppers will become much more
discriminatory over their choice o venue.
echnology - A taste or technology is a dening characteristic
o Indian socio-cultural prole. Tis translates into strong
interest in internet retailing which is increasingly popular,
particularly or electronics and advanced consumer durables.
An interesting dynamic is emerging in India, whereby
internet retailing is evolving in tandem with modern store-
based retailing. Tis will raise the demand or concept stores,exhibition space and promotion zones within shopping malls.
Network Culture - Indian society has become increasingly
network based, and there is a strong urge to communicate,
interact and extend one’s mobility. Increasingly, malls are a ocal
point or interaction and social exchange.
Advertising – tops the global rank in terms o society’s
attraction to advertising and “inotainment” as a source o
inuence and inormation. Indian advertising is known or its
creativity and boldness.
India – Drivers o ConsumptionThrill Seeking
A desire or “thrill pleasures” and emotionally rewardingexperiences
†
Fsion Fever
Hybridization o Indian and “Western” cultures†
Aesthetics
Quest or aesthetics, especially home aesthetics†
InnovationTaste or novelty driven by need or learning†
Technology
Taste or technology is a dening eature o the Indiansocio-cultural prole
†
Network Cltre
New IT and communications interacting with a morefexible social abric
†
Stats
Quest or status is a key driver o the current consumer
boom
†
Source: Sociovision
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Deep Diversity, ExtremeExpectationsIndia is a vast and complex society – its huge population is
highly diverse in terms o language, customs, ethnicity, habitat
and way o lie. Even between India’s major cities there are
notable dierences in consumer behaviour. Mumbai, Delhi
and Bangalore with their money-making ethic are home to
many o India’s “Golden Boys and Girls”; whilst the older more
sophisticated “Cosmopolitans” are attracted to these cities’
global orientation. Kolkata is a city in which the “Reactives” are
prevalent– its balance and cultural richness is valued by this
group. Chennai with its balance between modern and traditional
is an attractive place to live or both the “Reactives” and the
“Peaceul India” groups.
Tere are also notable dierences in consumer habits,
preerences and loyalties by region. For example a number
o smaller northern Indian cities, such as Chandigarh and
Ludhiana, have developed relatively sophisticated consumer
markets and brand awareness, due to their high NRI (Non
Resident Indians) populations. In contrast consumers across
most o southern India continue to have relatively low exposure
to organised retailing.
Such regional diversity places an additional layer o challenges
or retailers and property developers that are seeking to create
pan-Indian operations. No single retail ormat is appropriate
or the whole o India, and ormats need to be adapted or local
requirements. Market knowledge o local tastes is absolutely
essential.
From Fragmentation to Unication:All in a Decade?Te rise o organised retailing – raditional neighbourhood
retailers have historically dominated the Indian retail
environment. Tis is now changing rapidly, with organised
retailing growing by around 30%3 per year. Sales growth o
leading domestic retailers o 50-00% per year suggests that the
market is on target to beat market predictions that organisedretailing will account or nearly 0% o total sales by 2003.
Existing domestic retailers are consolidating and expanding
– Te main retail players, that have traditionally been regional-
specic, are evolving into pan-India operations. Te rise o large
domestic players such as Pantaloon/Big Bazaar, Shoppers Stop
Group, RPG and rent/Westside are a key eature o today’s
market. All have very ambitious programmes o expansion
across the sub-continent, and are building up their management
expertise to support this growth.
New domestic entrants will be the companies to watch
– Existing retailers are being joined by numerous new marketentrants who are seeking a slice o India’s lucrative retail
business. Notably, several o India’s largest corporate houses,
such as Reliance, Bharti and the Aditya Birla Group are moving
3 KSA echnopak, 2005
into retail in a big way. Reliance Retail have a very aggressive
expansion programme and is reported to be planning to invest
nearly $6 billion in 5,000 shops across India, with annual sales
o $25 billion by 200. Also in late 2006, Bharti enterprises
announced its tie-up with Wal-Mart to roll out branded
stores across India. Both Reliance Retail and Bharti-Wal-Mart
will be the companies to watch – they are set to dominate
organised retail and could well become global operations. Teir
understanding o Indian consumers, their impressive track
record in business and their deep pockets places them in a
strong position vis-à-vis existing players.
RELIANCE – A Major Force in Retailing
Reliance, one o India’s largest corporate houses,
headed by Mukesh Ambani, has an aggressiveexpansion programme and is reported to be
planning to invest nearly $6 billion in 5,000 shops
across India. It is poised to become India’s
largest retailer, with aims o achieving annual
sales o $25 billion by 2010.
Reliance Retail opened their rst
“Reliance Fresh” stores in Hyderabad in late
2006 attracting considerable global attention.They are now rolling out stores at a rapid pace
across India through both organic expansion and
acquisitions o existing retailers. The company
also expect to debut their speciality stores and
hypermarkets during 2007. Reliance is also
ocusing on supply chain management –
“the arm to ork” logistics chain – with the aim
o strengthening its procurement and
supply chain networks.
Foreign retailers are slowly moving in – Foreign retailers are
still restricted rom ully participating in the retail boom. Partial
FDI relaxations in 2006 (allowing 5% investment in “single
brands”) are now enabling premium brands (such as Chanel,
LVMH, Gucci and Zegna) and mass brands (e.g. Starbucks) to
enter the market. While there is considerable pressure to allow
00% FDI, the local lobby to retain restrictions is strong, and
urther deregulation is likely to be slow and piecemeal. Tis is
providing a short term window o opportunity or domestic
players to embed and expand their operations.
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Nonetheless, several international retailers are already
operational through dierent routes:
Franchises – e.g. M&S, Pizza Hut, McDonalds and Nike are
already operational.
Wholesaling – Metro (Germany) and Shop Rite (South Arica)
are already operational through the wholesale “cash and carry”
route (where 00% FDI allowed).
100% FDI in manufacturing – e.g. LG Electronics and Levis are
permitted to sell directly.
However, the attractions o India retailing are so strong, that
despite restrictions, many international retailers are seeking
market entry through JVs with local players, and are stepping
up sourcing operations. Companies such as esco and IKEA are
all targeting the market and exploring business opportunities.
Te eventual arrival o major international retailers will create amuch more competitive environment or retailers, and through
knowledge transer will lead to greater eciencies and the
introduction o higher international standards.
The Property Response –Accepting a Steep Learning CurveShopping mall development - reality vs hype? Since the
completion o India’s rst mall in 999, India has seen the steady
migration o retailing rom traditional ormats into retail malls.
As recently as 2002 there was barely one million sq o space in
only a handul o shopping malls. By the close o 2006, this hadrisen to around 90 malls totalling 9 million sq across seven
cities4.
Based on domestic developers’ intentions, the stock could more
than double to over 40 million sq by the end o 2007 and
to up to 60 million sq by 2008. However, there is a
widening gap between developers’ claims and
what is actually happening on the ground,
and we estimate that the end 2007 stock
could be between 5-25% below
“ocial” developer estimates.
Even i all the space iscompleted on time, in
per capita terms stock
levels by 2008
will still be
signicantly
below all
main
4 Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Mumbai, Kolkata and Pune.
property markets in Asia, Europe and North America. China,
or example currently has over 300 million sq o completed
shopping malls.
Indian Shopping Mall Development
7 cities: NCR, Mumbai, Bangalore, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Pune and ChennaiSource: Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj Research
Emergence o a new breed o pan Indian developers – Te
retail development market has so ar been highly ragmented,
with each region dominated by a dierent set o local
developers. Most local developers have lacked both expertise
and strategic vision, which has consequently compromised on
the quality o malls that are being built. However, the recent
and planned activities o leading developers such as DLF,
Emaar-MGF, Unitech, Prestige Group and Raheja points to
2000 2001 2002 200 200 2005 2006 2007 2008
60,000
70,000
50,000
0,000
0,000
20,000
10,000
0
‘000 sq t
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the emergence o a select group pan-Indian developers with a
strategic vision and ambitious national expansion plans; that
are raising capital using various methods including domestic
and oreign public listings and private equity; diversiying their
ormats and gaining the necessary management expertise. For
example, DLF, which is planning listing in 2007 is aggressively
targeting national growth, with the reported aim o developing
up to 00 malls across 60 cities within the next 8-0 years.
DLF – A Pioneering Developer
DLF, India’s largest real estate developer
was among the rst movers into shopping mall
development, when it launched the 250,000 sq t
City Centre Mall in Gurgaon in 2000. The company
has a very strong presence in the NCR.
DLF is planning a listing in 2007 with aggressive
plans to become a truly pan Indian player.
They already have portolio in most o India’s
main cities, but now are also targeting Tier
III cities o Punjab viz. Ludhiana, Jalandhar,
Chandigarh and Amritsar, alongwith Jaipur and
Kochi. They have a reported aim
o developing up to 100 malls across 60 cities
within the next 8-10 years.
DLF are broadening their ormats to include
speciality malls, big box retailing and integrated
malls within SEZs. They are also moving into
“lease models” and “revenue share model”.
Poor quality shopping malls – In the competitive rush to build
shopping malls, we assess that over 90% o the current and
planned shopping mall stock alls below international standards,
in terms o specication and design:
Most malls developed earlier in the decade were strata titled.Currently circa 80% o mall units are strata title versus only 20% leased. A recent survey by Jones Lang LaSalle Meghrajindicates that three-quarters o domestic branded retailerspreer to lease rather than purchase retail units. Developersare beginning to respond to this trend, with more malldevelopers are now holding on to their properties. Local
amily retailers still preer to buy rather than lease.Construction standards are inherently poor, with developers’urther compromising standards due to rising constructioncosts.
†
†
Mall congurations are poor in terms o pedestrianaccess, corridor width, linkages between oors and theamount o space allocated or ood courts, entertainmentareas, promotion zones, etc. Service areas or delivery andmovement o merchandise are oen inadequate.
Many malls have a severe lack o parking provision, which iscompounded by poor linkages with the road inrastructure.
No emphasis on tenant and trade mix
But the biggest challenge or most Indian malls is the poor
quality o the surrounding inrastructure and lack o integration
with neighbouring residential areas, which oen leads to
signicant congestion. A combination o poor inrastructure
(both transport and utilities), planning and zoning legislation
makes it inherently dicult or developers to provide an
attractive retail destination.
Despite their inerior quality, most shopping malls stillcommand large ootalls. But, many will fail the test of time as
more choice becomes available or the Indian consumer, who
will become increasingly discerning over their choice o retail
destination.
India: Lease Preerences
Choice o Lease Model
Inadequate asset management – Most malls are poorly
managed at both an operational/tactical and strategic level.
Tis translates into problems ranging rom low maintenance
and cleaning, and various health & saety risks, through toinappropriate tenant mixes. Most owners continue to struggle
with translating high ootalls into higher revenue. But this is
gradually starting to change with the introduction o outsourced
proessional mall management to manage tenant mix, acilities,
promotion, etc.
Te benchmark shopping malls – Tere are nonetheless a ew
trophy malls, such as the Prestige Forum (in Bangalore) and
Inorbit (in Mumbai), which have been particularly successul,
and are closer to the standards expected by international
investors. Tey are large, well planned and constructed malls,
actively managed and promoted, incorporating entertainmentand adequate parking. Select City Walk (in South Delhi)
which is expected to become operational during 2008, a large
multi use scheme, will set a new benchmark or shopping mall
development in India. A revenue share model is being adopted
†
†
†
Lease model
74%
Ownership
model
26%
Fixed rent model
65%
Revenue-share
model35%
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj Research
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raditional “High Streets” will adapt – While the property
market is rmly ocused on new shopping mall ormats,
traditional “high streets” will continue to be the mainstay o
the Indian retail scene. Te pull o traditional neighbourhood
retailers, particularly or local brands will remain very strong;
“High Street” retailers have the advantages o proximity,
amiliarity and high personal service. Culturally Indian
consumers expect and receive rst class personal service rom
local retailers, and are oen better positioned to respond to
the huge demand or home delivery. But competition will
increase, particularly as some local retailers move into malls
and it will become a credible alternative to shop or local retail
in newer ormats. raditional retailers will ght back, and the
“high streets” will be orced to adapt, which will provide new
opportunities or the property market to cater or this important
local component o the Indian retail scene. Moreover, many
traditional retailers still occupy illegal premises, and the policy adopted by the Delhi government to close/demolish illegal stores
is likely to be rolled out to other Indian cities, orcing traditional
retailers into the organised sector.
Retail property market is expanding into new geographies– Many retailers and mall developers are looking beyond India’smajor cities, and selectively ocusing on smaller cities whichoer huge potential. Tese cities oer avourable opportunitiesor retailers due to growing consumer markets, considerablelatent demand or branded goods and lower property costs. Tey are also less saturated than India’s main metros, and are lesslikely to ace uture competition rom international players.
In the ollowing section we look at India’s emerging retailgeography, and assess current property market conditions anduture prospects in both the major cities and those smalleremerging cities that are starting to appear on the radar screen o the retail property market.
The New Retail
Hierarchy and Property OpportunitiesAssessing City Retail Potentialo create a view o the where, how and when each o India’s
cities with a million + population will emerge as interesting
locations or property development, we have consolidated all
the intelligence, inormation and views we have on 50 Indiancities in order to create a new retail city classication. Te
classication is based on an analysis o three sets o indicators:
Retail Potential Indicator – based on a basket o indicators
including metropolitan area population and total income; per
capita income, savings and expenditure; household prole
and economic growth measures. Tese indicators enable a
quantitative appraisal o each city’s demographic and economic
undamentals, and provide an indicator o their potential to
develop as vibrant retail locations.
Retailer Demand Indicator – based on the operational and
planned presence o a basket o major domestic retailers (such as
Pantaloon, Westside and Shoppers Stop) as well as domestic and
international niche (“vanilla”) retailers.
Retail Supply Indicator – based on the number o current and
planned shopping malls.
City Retail Potential Model
Our analysis has identied a ve-level classication o cities:
1. Maturing CitiesTe National Capital Region (Delhi) and Mumbai dominate
India’s organised retailing sector. Malls have been a eature
o these two metros since 999, but it is only since 2003 that
volumes have increased markedly. Tese two vast metro regions
currently account or around hal o all o India’s organised
retailing. By 2008, they will still contribute over 40% o national
organised retail activity; although this proportion is expected
to decline over the longer term as retailing opportunities grow
elsewhere (see page 2-23).
Te NCR and Mumbai have by ar the highest number o
shopping malls in operation and planned. Most pan-Indian
CITIES HIERARCHY
NASCENT
MATURING
EMERGING
HIGH GROWTH
TRANSITIONAL
50 CITIES
Socio-EconomicFundamentals
Size: Total City Income
Wealth: Income,Savings, Expenditure
Socio-EconomicProle (% in SEC A/B)
GDP Growth
†
†
†
†
RetailerDemand
Basket o 20Retailers
ExistingStores
PlannedStores
†
†
Retail Supply
Shoppingmall stock
Shoppingmallconstruction
RETAIL POTENTIAL SCORE RETAIL ACTIVITY SCORE
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj Research
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retailers have a multiple presence, they are the launch pads or
most new retailer entrants and with by ar the largest number o
“super-rich”, and these cities are the hubs o luxury brands. Tey
are rmly on the radar o screen o international retailers and
property investors.
Competition within the NCR and Mumbai will intensiy as
supply grows and there is risk o saturation in some market
segments by 2008. Strong asset price growth and diculties in
land procurement make or a challenging environment or both
retailers and developers. Nonetheless, there are notable market
gaps and both metros are suciently large to accommodate a
wide variety o new ormats.
Opportunities are likely to arise in:
Developing large one-stop malls that combine mixed useconcepts, integrating retail, entertainment, eating and
residential uses.Catering or the numerous luxury brand retailers that arenow targeting India’s two main metros. Currently, luxury brands are only largely present in major ve star hotels (suchas Te Oberoi and Imperial in Delhi and the aj MahalPalace in Mumbai), but there is strong demand rom theseretailers or showrooms in both large shopping malls andspeciality malls.
Responding to the requirement or “Big Box” ormats; aormat that is likely to emerge over the next couple o years.
Developing more accessible neighbourhood malls andhypermarkets within the cities. Most current and planned
schemes are remote rom the main residential areas, and lowcar penetration makes shopping malls inaccessible to many consumers.
argeting the booming middle class residential suburbs, suchas Greater NOIDA (NCR) and Navi Mumbai and Tane(Mumbai) where many o the I/IES companies are based;and ocusing in particular on those suburbs that have yet to
see signicant mall development.
National Capital Region
Te National Capital Region has been and continues to be the
leader in mall culture in India. Organised retailing in the NCR is
twice the size o Mumbai, both in terms o shopping mall stock and retailer presence. Rising income levels, increasing demand
or branded products and wider acceptance o mall culture (than
elsewhere in India) has led to massive growth in the shopping
mall stock. Retailers are also attracted by the consumer prole o
the NCR, with over 40% o households in SEC groups A and B.
At present the total mall stock stands at 8.2 million sq , o
which 2.6 million sq is within the city o Delhi. Most stock,
however, is concentrated in the main suburban regions o
Gurgaon (at 2.6 million sq ), Ghaziabad (.2 million sq ) and
NOIDA (. million sq ).
Organized retailing rst came to the city with the constructiono Ansal Plaza in South Delhi in 999. However, it wasn’t until
200 that the NCR saw the rst shopping mall development
boom, ocused on the suburban market o Gurgaon, due to
its booming I/IES sector and the availability o larger plots
†
†
†
†
†
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj Research
o cheap land. Gurgaon saw the development o several large
ormat malls by developers such as DLF and MGF. NOIDA
ollowed Gurgaon into the retail boom in 2003, and more
recently Ghaziabad and Faridabad have both emerged as major
retail sub-markets. Te city o Delhi is also witnessing large scale
mall development, which has been made possible by the release
and auction o land by the Delhi Development Authority.
With a very large number o malls in the pipeline (the mall
stock could potentially more than double to 22 million sq by
2008-09) the NCR will continue to lead India’s organized retail
market. We expect the suburbs o Faridabad, Ghaziabad and
Greater NOIDA to be the ocus o uture retail development.
Manesar on National Highway 8 connecting the NCR to the city
o Jaipur is also likely to witness high retail interest. HSIDC has
approved large commercial projects, and several major MNCs
have commenced operations. wo Special Economic Zones by
DLF (NCR’s largest developer) and Reliance are also proposed.
Tese new suburban areas have large tracts o low cost land, and
will attract high developer interest or mixed use development.
Connaught Place, South Extension, Khan Market and Greater
Kailash are Delhi’s prime “high street” locations. Tey are
vibrant retail destinations with recognised brands; and they
will continue to attract signicant consumer activity. Lack
o expansion space in prime “high streets” is likely to lead
to urther price rises. Te Delhi government’s policy o
demolishing/closing illegal stores will re-enorce the migration
towards organised retailing.
National Capital RegionShopping Mall Development, 2000-2008
Mumbai
Mumbai’s rst mall was completed in 999 in the Central
Business District (CBD). Since 2003 mall development has
increased massively, expanding rom the CBD to all parts o the
island city and suburbs. Currently, Mumbai has a shoppingmall stock o 4.0 million sq , a gure that could rise to around
5 million sq by 2008-09.
SBD Central (Worli, Prabhadevi and Mahalaxmi) and SBD
North (Bandra, Andheri, Juhu and Santacruz) were the
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,0001,000
0
‘000 sq ft
Delhi
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Gurgaon NOIDA Ghaziabad Faridabad
Existing Stock Future Supply
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Shopping Mall Development, 2000-2008
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj Research
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
‘000 sq ft
CBD SBD-North SBD-Central
Suburbs-Navi Mumbai & Thane Suburbs-Others
Existing Stock Future Supply
12,000
14,000
20,000
22,000
18,00016,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
‘000 sq ft
NCR Mumbai Bangalore Kolkata Pune Chennai Hyderabad
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Delhi/NCR 41%
Mumbai 20%
Kolkata 10%
Pune 6%
Bangalore 8%
Hyderabad 4%
Chennai 3%
Ahmedabad 8%
45 milion sq t
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj Research
rst micro-markets outside the CBD to see signicant mall
development in 2002-2003. Since then there has been steady
growth in the number o malls and several new developments
are slated or completion by 2008 in the western suburban
regions.
Another hot retail market is likely to be in the Parel area (in SBD
Central), where the sale o mill lands has created considerable
opportunities or mixed use development.
Other western suburban regions such as Malad and Goregaon
have seen the development o integrated townships such as
Mindspace. o cater or these residential townships, Raheja
built the In-Orbit mall, which has become one o India’s most
successul malls.
Te central suburban regions o Powai, Mulund, Navi Mumbai
and Tane are emerging as Mumbai’s next hot retail markets,
boosted by the growing activities o the I/IES sector and
rapidly expanding residential areas. Both Navi Mumbai and
Tane are set to witness huge mall development in the near
uture. We expect that the central suburbs o Powai, Mulund,
Navi Mumbai and Tane will overtake the western suburbs in
terms o mall space.
Mumbai’s “high streets” such as Bandra Linking Road, Colaba
Causeway, Breach Candy and Lokhandwala will continue to
attract the Mumbai-ites.
Mmbai, Shopping Mall Development
2000-2008
2. Transitional CitiesBangalore, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Pune, Chennai, Ahmedabad
India’s transitional retail cities o Bangalore, Kolkata, Hyderabad,
Pune, Chennai and Ahmedabad are now rmly making their
mark on the retail sector. Whilst organised retailing is a more
recent phenomenon than in the NCR and Mumbai, they are
catching up as both retailers and developers tap into their largemiddle classes. By 2008, these six transitional cities will account
or one-third o India’s organised retailing. Retailers are attracted
by their increasingly vibrant corporate sectors, high economic
growth rates, above average incomes and large middle classes.
Property, construction and labour costs are also well below the
NCR and Mumbai.
Te majority o major domestic retailers and new market
entrants, irrespective o their business models, are already
expanding in these cities or have plans to open new stores.estimony to the strength o ier II cities, Reliance Retail chose
to open its rst concept store in Hyderabad. As with ier I cities,
the key opportunities are in large one-stop malls, speciality
malls, neighbourhood malls and hypermarkets and “Big Box”
retailing.
Kolkata, Pune and Hyderabad currently have the largest
shopping mall oorspace o the transitional cities. But Bangalore
has the most aggressive mall construction programme, with
a wide variety o retailers attracted to the city’s increasingly
cosmopolitan population. Chennai has so ar lagged the other
transitional cities in terms o mall development, but is expectedto start to catch up by 2008.
India’s Shopping Mall Stock (est. by end 2007)Primary and Secondary Cities
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj Research
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Indian Tertiary Cities – Retail Activity v Potential
GROWTH
EMERGING
NASCENT
Jaipur
Ludhiana
Chandigarh
Lucknow
Kochi
Vadodara
Surat
IndoreAmritsar
Jalandhar
MangaloreNashikBhubaneshwarAgra
VizagCoimbatore
Nagpur KanpurGoaAllahabad
Thiruvananthapuram
Mysore
Jamshedpur
JodphurVaranasi Patna MeerutRajkot
Aurangabad Bhopal
Kolhapur
Guwahati
MaduraiRanchi
SonipatSrinagar
Solapur
Asansol
DhanbadPanipat
VijayawadaJabalpur
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0,2
0
0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
Retail Activity Score
Retail Potential Score
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
‘000 sq ft
Prime SecondarySecondary Suburbs
Existing Stock Future Supply
Bangalore, Shopping Mall Development2000-2008
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj Research
. High Growth CitiesChandigarh, Jaipur, Ludhiana, Lucknow, Kochi, Surat,
Vadodara
A group o tertiary cities have over the past year entered a
high growth phase. Tese high growth cities, mainly located
in northern India, are perceived by retailers as the “next retail
destinations”. Tey are on the radar or major national and
international retailers, attracted by high incomes and strong
brand awareness. Chandigarh, Ludhiana, Jaipur and Lucknow
lead the pack, characterised by high levels o shopping mall
development and signicant retailer interest. Research on
retailer preerences by Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj identies
the Punjabi city o Ludhiana as the most avoured tertiary city.
Incomes are well above the national average and consumers
have a high exposure to international brands due to the strong
inuence o its NRI population.
Bangalore
Bangalore stands out among the transitional retail hubs. Already
very well established as one o India’s primary oce hubs,
boasting an I/IES sector o global signicance, the city is
starting to catch up in retail terms. Retailers are attracted by the
city’s booming economy, with double digit economic growth
and average per capita income higher than either Delhi or
Mumbai; Bangalore also has a cosmopolitan population which
is continually being enriched by new migrants rom across India
as well as overseas. Te city is oen used as a test market or new
entrants and retail concepts due to its young and cosmopolitan
demographics.
Currently, Bangalore has a shopping mall stock o only
.0 million sq (below most other main cities). Te city has
a severe shortage o organized retailing; existing malls have
virtually 00% occupancy, and the best malls (such as Prestige
Forum) are attracting very high ootalls. Developers are now
responding to the shortages and the city has a very aggressive
construction programme. Te mall stock could potentially rise
to over 6.7 million sq by 2008, with 2.5 million sq due or
completion in 2007 alone. Much o the space under construction
has already been pre-leased.
Given the lack o organized retail space, Bangalore has
prominent CBD “high streets” such as CMH Road and Brigade
Road, which will continue to attract retailers. Jaya Nagar 4th
block and CMH Road are also seeing high levels o leasing
activity.
Although mall construction activity is occurring across all
quadrants o the city, over the longer term we expect particularly
strong growth in organized retail on Bellary Road, near to the
new international airport which is scheduled or completion by
2008. Suburban Business Districts such as Whiteeld are also
expected to see signicant mall development.
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj Research
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Most high growth cities are located in northern India wherethere is strong brand awareness. Te exception is Kochi insouthern India, a avoured destination or the I/IES sector.A sharp rise in mall development is expected in 2007/2008in Kochi, with schemes by both the Kshitij Fund (a retail
investment und o the Future Group) and Lulu (a division o EMKE Group o Dubai) in the pipeline.
. Emerging CitiesAmritsar, Indore, Jalandhar, Mangalore, Nashik,
Bhubaneshwar, Agra, Vizag, Nagpur, Coimbatore, Kanpur,
Goa, Allahabad, Mysore, Jamshedpur, Tiruvananthapuram
On the basis o the uture plans o major hypermarkets and
department stores, a group o 6 emerging cities are likely to
be the next growth markets over a three year horizon. Factors
such as growing incomes, rising aspirations, scarcity o branded
stores and growing corporate activity are increasing the demandor organised retailing. In cities such as Nagpur, Indore, Nashik,
Bhubaneshwar, Vizag, Coimbatore, Mangalore, Mysore and
Tiruvananthapuram, I/IES companies are rapidly expanding
their workorces, which in turn is stimulating retailer activity.
Tese cities currently represent among the most interesting
locations or property developers - retailers are combing these
cities or opportunities, with demand exceeding supply. Tis
group also includes several major tourist destinations such as
Amritsar, Agra and Goa, as well as a number o southern Indian
cities which have so ar been less impacted by organised retail
than their northern Indian counterparts.Tese smaller cities have consistently outpaced the larger metros
in economic growth rates, and they are witnessing strong growth
in incomes. But even more signicant is the changing liestyles
and aspirations, and the undamental shi in the consumer
mindset in smaller cities.
Low property costs, lower operating costs and high brand
acceptance in smaller cities are enabling retailers to achieve
better margins than in India’s main cities. Retailers are
introducing contemporary retail ormats but at a smaller
scale, with mall sizes typically between 00,000-50,000 sq
compared to 500,000 sq in the larger metros.
5. Nascent Cities–The Next FrontierPatna, Bhopal, Meerut, Asansol, Varanasi, Kolhapur, Sonipat,
Madurai, Rajkot, Jabalpur, Dhanbad, Vijayawada, Srinagar,
Panipat, Aurangabad, Solapur, Ranchi, Jodhpur, Guwahati
A urther 9 smaller cities (most o which have populations
o between -.5 million) are classied as “nascent”, largely
reecting low incomes and limited corporate activity. Organised
retailing is currently very limited, but they are nonetheless on
the “watch list” o pioneering retailers and mall developers that
are seeking to benet rom “rst mover advantage”. Progress
towards the development o an active organised retail sector in
these cities is likely to be slow, although market conditions can
change rapidly should their local economies be boosted by new
corporate arrivals.
Jodhpur, Vijayawada and Varanasi are amongst the most popular
tourist destinations in India, and their potential or organised
retail is higher than other “nascent” cities. Others cities havesignicant manuacturing sectors, which have attracted
department stores and hypermarkets. Pantaloon’s agship brand
“Big Bazaar” is already present in the majority o these cities.
Developers like Prozone, are active in cities such as Aurangabad
and Rajkot.
Final ObservationsRetail Developers Must Fight or a
Place in the Modernisation ProcessTis report has shown how changes in consumer behaviour
and the rapid transormation o India’s retail scene have
bought the Indian retail real estate market to the point o
“li-o”. Signicant new opportunities across a broad range o
geographies and ormats are being captured by an increasing
number o domestic real estate developers and investors, all
eager to participate in a market that is still at an early stage o
evolution. However in the rush to expand retail ormats and
build new malls, many schemes all well below international
standards. As more choice becomes available or the Indian
consumer, a lot o malls and retail concepts will ail the testo time. Moreover, most retailers will struggle to implement
aggressive expansion plans due a lack o suitable and aordable
property, inecient logistics operations and shortages o
manpower skills. A rapidly growing, but highly challenging
retail environment will inevitably result in many losers as well as
winners.
The Next StageTe next stage in the evolution o the Indian retail market
will be when international developers and nanciers start to
change the shape o India retailing, joining an elite group o visionary domestic developers, owners and retailers who have
the scalability, the teams, the processes and the logistics required
to ourish in this rapidly growing retail environment. In the
next report in the Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj series on India
Retail Futures, we will look at the state o Indian retailing on
the ground, and drawing on international best practice, we will
provide insights into how new retail development is likely to
evolve in terms o design, style and management, as the Indian
retail sector truly becomes part o the global real estate market.
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Reports on India rom Jones Lang LaSalle
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“Emerging City Winners” is Phase IV o Jones Lang LaSalle’s WorldWinning Cities Research, a multi-year programme designed to draw together the essence o contemporary city competitiveness. WorldWinning Cities examines trends that are impacting on the business andeconomic landscape, and how these actors are coalescing to create the rising urban stars o the next decade.
Our Emerging Cities Winners research aims to identiy the winners andlosers amongst the world’s emerging cities in Asia, EMEA and Latin America. This phase o World WinningCities has evolved in response to the rapid changes that are occurring in the geography o business, wherenew opportunities are now emerging in cities that have not traditionally been on the radar screen o the
property sector. Cross-border occupiers and investors need to be able to spot the rising urban stars o theuture. Emerging City Winners aims to provide insights into the dynamics o the world’s emerging cities, tohelp real estate occupiers and investors understand the opportunities and complexities o a growing band orising urban stars.
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