WWF’s Energy Vision
© 2010, WWF. All photographs used in this presentation are copyright protected and courtesy of the WWF-Canon Global Photo Network and the respective photographers.
Adam White - Project Officer Climate & Energy Team WWF European Policy Office
• WWF’s Global Energy Vision • WWF’s Energy Vision for Europe • WWF’s Vision for change
WWF’s Energy Vision
Why 100% Renewable Energy?
1. Climate - at least 80% less Greenhouse Gas globally by 2050
2. Conventional oil/gas scarcity - we need “4 times Saudi Arabia and 4 times Russia for 2030”
3. Threats of unconventional fuels - CTL, GTL, deep water oil, shale gas, tar sands - more than just carbon
4. Nuclear development - What to do with 100,000 tonnes toxic waste for next 10,000 years?
5. Equity - 1.4/2.7 billion people lack access to electricity/safe cooking energy
6. Benefits - No-regret technologies, cutting 573bn euro fuel import bill, jobs
CTL: Coal To Liquid GTL: Gas To Liquid
WWF’s Energy Vision
The Scenario - Principal Assumptions
1. Conservation/efficiency with Best Available Technology
2. Material efficiency with Best Available Technology 3. Materials, products “on shelf” today 4. Electricity used as much as possible 5. Renewable Energy growth rates below ‘realisable’ potential 6. End energy poverty Traditional Biomass 7. No nuclear, no CCS (NB: Not addressing process emissions) 8. Sustainable bioenergy e.g. no cropland, no undisturbed forests 9. Accept ‘BAU’: Pop. growth, GDP, ‘activity levels’, fuel prices 10. Change ‘BAU’: Modal shift, diets
11. Free technology transfer 12. Free electricity trade
WWF’s Energy Vision
CCS: Carbon Capture & Storage / BAU: “Business-As-Usual” / GDP: Gross Domestic Product
A global scenario (1)
The scenario’s model is now being adapted to produce
energy efficiency and renewable
energy targets for the EU27 for 2030
Demand and supply examined in 10 world regions
WWF’s Energy Vision
A global scenario (2)
SOURCE: Ecofys Energy Scenario, 2010
WWF’s Energy Vision
The changing shape of the global energy system
WWF’s Energy Vision
Reducing CO2 Emissions from Energy Sector by >80%
Global CO2-eq GHG emissions from the energy system in the scenario SOURCE: Ecofys Energy Scenario, 2010
WWF’s Energy Vision
Adapting WWF’s Energy Model for the EU A five stage approach:
1. Starting point: the global model developed by ECOFYS for WWF’s Energy Report
2. Test the model against actual progress 3. Refine the model to the EU27 context 4. Gather outputs:
a) Overall energy savings and renewable energy targets b) Renewable energy targets by sector c) Energy savings targets by sector d) Specific consideration of biomass
5. Compare outputs to other similar reports
WWF’s proposed EU27 2030 renewable energy and energy savings targets
Based on modelling by ECOFYS
2. Testing the model
+15% Information descriptor
Can appear below
the numbers
WWF’s proposed EU27 2030 renewable energy and energy savings targets
Based on modelling by ECOFYS
ECOFYS model result for 2010
IEA sta8s8cs for 2010
Global total final consump8on (EJ) 327 EJ 330 EJ
RES (EJ) 59 EJ 60 EJ
RES share in the mix (%) 18% 18%
2000 2005 2010
RES Share ECOFYS model results – EU27 7% 8% 12%
Historical RES share EU27 (IEA 2012) 8% 8% 12%
Historical RES share EU27 (Eurostat) 7% 8% 13%
3. Refining the model
XX% XX%
XX% XX%
WWF’s proposed EU27 2030 renewable energy and energy savings targets
Based on modelling by ECOFYS
Assumptions adapted for the EU27 context:
• Population forecast • GDP growth • Buildings • Transport • Industry • Non-biomass RE source potentials
The global model gives results for Europe as a geographic region, which are then scaled to the EU27
4. The EU27 2030 Results
XX% XX%
XX% XX%
WWF’s proposed EU27 2030 renewable energy and energy savings targets
Based on modelling by ECOFYS
A comprehensive look at all the options?
XX% XX%
XX% XX%
WWF’s Assessment of the Commission’s Energy Roadmap 2050
The threat of failing to save energy
XX% XX%
XX% XX%
WWF’s Assessment of the Commission’s Energy Roadmap 2050
Biomass demand compared to sustainable production ceiling when all scenarios have the same final energy demand as the reference scenario
A window of opportunity for renewables
XX% XX%
WWF’s Assessment of the Commission’s Energy Roadmap 2050
No regrets infrastructure?
XX% XX%
WWF’s Assessment of the Commission’s Energy Roadmap 2050
Key sectors for more action
XX% XX%
XX% XX%
WWF’s Assessment of the Commission’s Energy Roadmap 2050
Thank you
www.panda.org
© 2010, WWF. All photographs used in this presentation are copyright protected and courtesy of the WWF-Canon Global Photo Network and the respective photographers.
Adam White - Project Officer Climate & Energy Team WWF European Policy Office Email: [email protected] Tel: +32 2 761 0427 Mobile: +32 4 9156 3416
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." (Albert Einstein)