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Gas in Namibia -Implications for the
region Roger Swart
NAMCOR1st June 2005
NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD
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Talk outline
Namibia’s locationWhy gas?Namibia’s potential
Conventional resourcesUnconventional resources
Implications for the region
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NAMIBIA
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Why gas?
Increasing power demand in southern Africa Fastest growing energy resource
70% increase from 2001 to 2025 Clean fuel Cheaper, quicker construction More efficient
U.S. & Europe - domestic supply dwindling Significant reserves remain undiscovered
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South African Generation
Source: SA Department of Minerals and Energy, Integrated Energy Plan, 2003
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Power generation in Europe
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Power generation costs in Europe
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U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Imports,
1970 - 2025 (trillion cubic feet)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Consumption
Production
Net Imports
History Projections
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Pipeline Liquefied Natural Gas
Natural Gas Net Imports, 2002 and 2025(trillion cubic feet)
20022025
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Net U.S. Imports of Natural Gas, 1970-2025
(trillion cubic feet)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
History Projections
Canada
Liquefied Natural Gas
Mexico
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Current US LNG terminals
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Future US LNG terminals
Nearly all of the increase in net US imports is expected to come from LNG
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Shipping route
c. 17 days sailing
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Namibia’s potential
Kudu
Kunene
Lüderitz
Orange
Walvis
Namibe
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Namibia’s potential
Kudu Gas Field Proven 1.4 tcf Considerable upside remains (~8tcf) Advanced feasibility stage
800 MW CCGT in Namibia Extend to 1600 MW later
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Namibia’s potential
Other Orange BasinDeeper water playsInboard plays; cf. South African portionSource rock widespread
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Namibia’s potential
Kudu
Kunene
Lüderitz
Orange
Walvis
Namibe
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Block 1711
Originally licence held by VancoSince November 2004 under NAMCOR curatorshipSeeking partnersLarge (>300 sq km) 4-way closureHigh reliefAbundant DHI’sPotentially large reserves
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Regional Seismic Line
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Unconventional Resources
HydratesAbundant in Block 1711Excellent BSR’sSampled with drop coresPartly thermogenic sourceAlso recognised in Lüderitz Basin
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Hydrates
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Unconventional resources
HydratesBusiness challenges
Lack of supporting infrastructurePiggy back on conventional development in 1711?
What is total volume of gas in place? What is total volume of gas recoverable? What rates can we produce at? Additional operating/maintenance expense?
Potentially a huge resource for region
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Regional Implications
Gas potential of southern Africa highSufficient to satisfy some of the immediate energy demands of regionLNG market in Europe and USA to grow
West Africa well positioned
Projects will result in significant FDIPositive impact on regional GDP growth
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Thank you