Peter HayesProfessor, International Relations, Nautilus-RMIT
Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, USA
www.nautilus.org
SeoulOctober 18, 2010
Global Security and Complexity
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Global Security: 1st half of 20th Century Fluidly Simple
• State-based security• Classic Realist Balance of power politics• Two world wars• Anti-colonial wars to establish new states or reinstate pre-colonial states or empires
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Global Security: 2nd Half of 20th Century Rigid Simplicity
• Cold War for 4 decades• Bipolar structure covering entire planet• Blocs and Alliances • Balance of terror• Spheres of influence• Non-aligned states• Contested zones (Korea)• Wars of national liberation• Very predictable…until the Soviet Union fell apart• Bipolar system reconstituted around American hegemony for 10 years when the world spun apart
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CC Adaptation: Reminder--Complex Systems
• Local processes may govern transitions of the state of the whole system due to dependence on the initial conditions or what is known intuitively as the “butterfly effect.”
• Due to their non-linearity, the effects of these interacting processes across scales, including positive and negative feedbacks, are inherently unpredictable.
21st Century: Global Security Increasing Complexity – 13 dimensions
Source: http://www.watsoninstitute.org/globalsecuritymatrix 5
Global + Resource Conflict
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Global + Warfare
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Outside-In Approach:Wicked
WMD-Insecurity Complex 16 Part Global Problem
Outside-In Approach: Wicked
WMD InsecurityComplex
20 Part Global Solution
Perkovich et al, 20069
Shift from Simple to Complex Security State -> {State + Market + Civil Society}
State (military) -> {State + Military + Human + Ecological Security}
Political -> {Political + Legal + Institutional Security}
National -> {National + Local + Global + Individuals + Glocal + Networked Security} 10
Simple to Complex Global Problem-Solving
Shift from
Singular, sequential problem-solvingto
Multiple, simultaneous problem-solving
For example
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Outside-In Approach: “Sustainable Security”
Conclusion (p. 29)Five macro-drivers of instabilityworsen each other and requiresimultaneous and integratedsolutionsSource: Oxford Research Group, June 2006
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Holdren: reduces this complexity to nexus:“energy-economy-environment dilemma”
Poverty
Nuclear Proliferation
Pollution, EnvironmentalStress
Climate Change
Development
Climate Change
Energy
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Global Problem-Solving Failures and Strategies
Global Gridlock• International treaties (too slow, too ritualistic)• International regimes (non-binding, no enforcement)• Mega-conferences (respond to cumulative failure to solve urgent problems, LCD
consensus, dissensus, no followup)• G7-8, 20 type groupings (process failures, not inclusive, disconnected from
market and CS knowledge, vertical and time distance• 40 global “multilateral” IGOs (constrained by paymasters, small funding,
scapegoated)
Global Solutions• World Government: distill all the above into global gridlock; great powers
dominant and entrenched• or• Networked governance (multisectoral, global issue, norm-based networks, fast,
legitimate, cross-border, inclusive of diversity, internet-based + G20 specialized inter-governmental initiatives
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Genesis of Modern Traditional Think Tanks (Rand, Hudson, IDA, CNA...)
• academic• contract research• advocacy• party-affiliated
“Keep an eye on those two.” 15
States Cram Complexity into a Few Bureaucratic Boxes
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Transnational Think Nets
Types• global public policy networks• single issue global social movements• diasporic networks• transecting transnational networks
Characteristics• Multi-sectoral• Cross-issues (multi-dimensional)• Diasporic
Enabling conditions:Internet + globalization
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Key Concepts for Transnational Think Nets
• the information milieu of the global public sphere is the critical domain for policy articulation and implementation
• because it contains the common knowledge and shared reference points that are critical to successful negotiation
• seek to identify natural affines that share weak links• solution to the “small worlds” problem
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INFOAXIOM 2 www.infoaxioms.org
Common Knowledge and NetworksSpeed of diffusion varies by weak-strong links (less
processing, less distance, fastest communication in weakly coupled networks)
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Transnational Think-Nets
• communicate across borders and behind the scenes• speak truth to power• top quality information and analysis• Informational and analytic timeliness, accuracy,
insight (especially early warning of pending events, emerging issues, or anomalies in conventional perspectives
• connectivity to networked policymakers.
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