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Keys to Human DevelopmentBertil Tungodden, Norwegian School of Economics
3th National Conference
«Unleashing growth potential in Tanzania: Economic Transformation for Human Development»
Dar es Salaam, September 11, 2014
Behavioral economics and experimental methods
Key messages from my talk!
• Keys to human development:
• A trusting society
• An entreprenurial society
• Keys to learning about the way forward:
• Lab experiments
• Randomized control trial field experiments
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Why is Norway doing so well in human development?
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How is Norway different?
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Why is trust so important?
• Let us do a small lab experiment (to illustrate the mechanism)!
• A trust game:– Suppose that you and someone else in the audience are paired together
anonymously in an experiment.
– Suppose you are given 1 million Tsh and are to decide how much of this to send anonymously to the other participant.
– Whatever you send will triple in value!
– But it is all up to the other participant to decide how much to return to you!
– What do you do?
• Reflects many real life situations where we can’t write a contract, but have to put our faith in others to create value.
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But even if we can write a contract, it would be much more efficient if we could rather trust our partner
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Key message 1: Trust is crucial for Human Development
• However: Trust levels are not necessarily stable in a society!
– Norway was not a trusting country one hundred years ago.
• Million dollar question: How do we create a trusting society?
– Public schools may be important – establish social norms of trustworthness and of trusting others.
– More research is needed to understand the mechanisms of trust – and the importance of trust should be given more focus in the public debate.
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Key message 2: How to build an entrepreneurial society?
• Young people in developing countries typically have to create their own jobs.
– 65% of Tanzanias are below 25 years old, very few get a formal job.
– Self-employment promoted in the development plans of many poor countries (including Tanzania).
– Opportunities for all! Entrepreneurship can play a role in ensuring development with a human face!
• Three research projects in Tanzania:– What does it take to succed as an entrepreneur: Financial vs Human
capital?
– How can we reach out with entrepreneurship training: Ruka Juu!
– Can enterpreneurship be a way to female empowerment? Girl Power
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Key message 3: How to learn about development?
• Randomized control field experiments: The road to understanding the impact of a policy intervention!
• Social scientists are basically copying the approach used in medicine and the natural sciences for a long time!
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Human and financial capital for microenterprise development: Evidence from a field and lab experiment
– ”…most simply duplicate what their neighbours are doing and do not appreciate the importance of innovation, quality, credibility and customer care.”
• Donath Olomi, University of Dar es Salaam
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Main findings
• A combination of financial capital and human capital is needed for small scale entrepreneurs to grow.
• Find very strong evidence of increased sales and profits among male entrepreneurs.
• More comprehensive measures needed for the female entrepreneurs.
• They learn as much as the male entrepreneurs from the training, but no signficant effects on business performance.
• Our findings suggest that this is largely due to external constraints (like family obligations).
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Teaching entrepreneurship through television: Ruka Juu!
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Short term findings
•The edutainment show had a strong effect on their ambitions – made them much more interested in business and entrepreneurship (particularly females).
• The edutainment show also made them more risk willing and patient.
• What about long-term effects?
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Girl power
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•Decisive time: Adulthood
•Why? • Lack of knowledge/empowerment?
• Lack of economic opportunities?
Time line
• Baseline survey: April-May 2013 80 schools in Dodoma, Singida, Morogoro and Tabora 3485 girls
• Randomization: Right after baseline 4 groups, 20 schools in each: Health, Entrepreneurship, Both, Control “Build your life”, “Protect your life”
• Training of teachers: May 2013 Based on newly developed booklets from Femina
• Training of the girls: July – September 2013
• Follow-up survey I: September-October 2013 Training camp for surveyors started on September 16 Separate in-depth qualitative follow-up • Follow-up survey II: Second half of 2014 Initial pilot in April 2014 Training camp for surveyors starts on September 8 Separate in-depth qualitative follow-up later in the fall
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METHOD
•Pre-analysis plan: Pre-specify what we would like to study and how we would like to test it (to avoid data mining)
•Follow-up surveys: to study the impact of the training on:
– Follow-up I: Knowledge, Behavior (plans), Gender-equality, and Empowerment.
– Follow-up II: Behavior, Welfare, Persistence of Gender-equality and Empowerment.
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Follow-up II: The important next step
• Promising short-term treatment effects
–They know more
–They feel empowered
–They do have plans
• We would like to study whether these initial positive findings have translated into changes in actual behavior and increased welfare (and also the persistence of gender-equality attitudes and empowerment feelings).
• Basic idea: Girls need both to be empowered and to be given economic opportunities!!
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Key messages from my talk!
• Keys to human development:
• A trusting society
• An entreprenurial society
• Keys to learning about the way forward:
• Lab experiments
• Randomized control trial field experiments
ASSANTE SANA!24