WYOMING DEMOGRAPHIC, ECONOMIC AND REVENUE TRENDS AND OUTLOOK

WYOMING DEMOGRAPHIC, ECONOMIC AND REVENUE TRENDS AND OUTLOOK

Wenlin Liu, Chief Economist

Economic Analysis Division

State of Wyoming

Economic Roundtable Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Nov 12, 2020

1

Mining - 1st

Construction – 1st

Government – 3rd

Manufacturing – 48th

Prof. & Bus. Svcs. – 51st

Educ. & Health Svcs. – 51st

Wyoming = 412,765U.S. = 203,809,500

Employment by Industry for U.S. and Wyoming: 2019(Includes: full and part-time wage and salary jobs, and proprietors employment)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Rank of Wyoming’s industry share in the U.S.:

2By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division

Gross Domestic Product for U.S. and Wyoming: 2019 by Industry

Note: GDP is often referred to as its "value added", is equal to its gross output (sales or receipts and other operating income, plus inventory change) minus its intermediate inputs (consumption of goods and services purchased from other industries or imported).

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis3By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division

• Robust Supply – tech (fracking)

Source: Natural Gas Intelligence4

By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division

5

-30,000

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

325,000

350,000

375,000

400,000

425,000

450,000

475,000

500,000

525,000

550,000

575,000

600,000Net M

igrationPopu

latio

n

Net Migration = In-migration - Outmigration

Wyoming Population and Net Migration: 1970 to 2019

Net Migration* Population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis DivisionSource: U.S. Census Bureau Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division



0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

Source: Wyoming Department of Health

Number of Births and Deaths in Wyoming: 1970 to 2019

Births Deaths


60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

Non‐Agr Wage and Salary Employment for Wyoming and U.S.(in thousands of jobs)

Wyoming (L) U.S. (R)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's

Job growth rate: 2006=5.2%, 2007=4.3%, 2008=3.2%



10

Monthly Unemployment Rate for the U.S. and Wyoming: Jan 2005 – Sept 2020

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

Jan2005

Jan2006

Jan2007

Jan2008

Jan2009

Jan2010

Jan2011

Jan2012

Jan2013

Jan2014

Jan2015

Jan2016

Jan2017

Jan2018

Jan2019

Jan2020

U.S. WY


11

Total Nonfarm Employment (in thousands) for the U.S. and Wyoming: Jan 2005 – Sept 2020

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

150,000

155,000

160,000

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

Jan2005

Jan2006

Jan2007

Jan2008

Jan2009

Jan2010

Jan2011

Jan2012

Jan2013

Jan2014

Jan2015

Jan2016

Jan2017

Jan2018

Jan2019

Jan2020

US (R) WY (L)


12

Mining Employment for the U.S. and Wyoming: Jan 2000 – Sept 2020

300,000

360,000

420,000

480,000

540,000

600,000

660,000

720,000

780,000

840,000

900,000

960,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

32,000

Jan2000

Jan2001

Jan2002

Jan2003

Jan2004

Jan2005

Jan2006

Jan2007

Jan2008

Jan2009

Jan2010

Jan2011

Jan2012

Jan2013

Jan2014

Jan2015

Jan2016

Jan2017

Jan2018

Jan2019

Jan2020

US (R) WY (L)


13Source: Baker Hughes By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division

Change of Employment (%) by Industry in Wyoming:Sept 2019 – Sept 2020

14

‐1.3%‐8.2%

10.7%‐9.8%

‐15.7%0.3%

‐9.3%‐4.5%

‐14.7%0.0%

4.9%‐13.1%

2.0%0.0%

‐26.7%‐5.6%

Local GovtState Govt

Federal GovtOther Services

Leisure & HospitalityPrivate Education & Health

Prof. & Bus. ServicesFinancial Activities

InformationTransp. & Utilities

Retail TradeWholesale TradeManufacturingConstruction

MiningTotal

State Government includes higher educationLocal Government includes K‐12 education and public hospitals


Change of Employment (Number) by Industry in Wyoming:Sept 2019 – Sept 2020

15

‐600‐1,200

800‐1,600

‐5,800100

‐1,800‐500‐500

01,400

‐1,100200

0‐5,500

Local GovtState Govt

Federal GovtOther Services

Leisure & HospitalityPrivate Education & Health

Prof. & Bus. ServicesFinancial Activities

InformationTransp. & Utilities

Retail TradeWholesale TradeManufacturingConstruction

Mining

Total = ‐16,100

State Government includes higher educationLocal Government includes K‐12 education and public hospitals




Crude oil

Natural Gas



20

Percent of Total Mineral Valuation:1981 = 72%1998 = 49%2008 = 70%2020 = 34%



22

‐50.0

‐40.0

‐30.0

‐20.0

‐10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20








Gap = 15,000


30

120,024 145,553 135,525 128,873 135,402 134,172 126,540

36,806

68,96041,386 49,928 56,429 49,784 55,443

78,422

141,730148,495 138,619

144,615 149,968 145,06666,960

76,13980,987 118,669

157,090 140,838 134,624

30,204

37,17547,195

57,693

70,090 104,520 135,564

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Wyoming Population by Age Group

65 & over

45 - 64

25 - 44

18 - 24

< 18

Source: population from 1970 to 2010 was from U.S. Census Bureau's decennial census, population for 2020 and 2030 were projections from Wyoming Economic Analysis Division


• During the worst period of COVID‐19 ‐ the 2nd quarter, Wyoming’s overall economic decline somewhat faired better than the U.S. average because our mitigation measures were less as restrictive though this downturn is still the worst since the oil bust in the mid‐1980s.

• Due to its pivotal role in WY’s economy, the plunge of the energy market is devastating the state’s economy and revenue as the oil & gas rigs dropped 90% and coal production is contracting over 25% from the previous year. The slow recovery of oil prices will also hinder our mineral development in the near future.

• Many other industries such as construction, transportation, professional and financial services will be affected due to their chain reaction with the mining industry.

• Structural budget deficits for both state government operation and K12 education are severe, and investment income is challenging due to low interest environment and high stock valuation.

• Federal policy ramification from election such as fracking or new lease on Fed land (70%, 80%, 90%).• Quite a few wind energy projects are under construction – led by Chokecherry and Sierra Madre. By

2026, it is expected to become the largest wind farm in the United States with 2,000 turbines. It contributes large sales taxes.

• Unemployment rate will be relatively low: rural state and large number of baby boomers who are leaving labor force.

• Rainy day fund of $1.5 billion (100% of GF) – the largest in the country. • Whether or not another round of stimulus will greatly impact the resilient retail & motor vehicle sales

and housing market, as well as sales tax revenue.31By Wyoming Economic Analysis Division

Economic Analysis Division – EAD“Wyoming’s Source for Business and Economic Information”

http://eadiv.state.wy.us

ai‐ead‐[email protected]

(307) 777‐7504

THANK YOU!

32

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WYOMING DEMOGRAPHIC, ECONOMIC AND REVENUE TRENDS AND OUTLOOK

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