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Financial Success Through Financial Success Through Environmental Leadership Environmental Leadership Fixed Income Investor Meetings Fixed Income Investor Meetings February 2008 February 2008
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Page 1: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Financial Success Through Financial Success Through Environmental LeadershipEnvironmental Leadership

Fixed Income Investor MeetingsFixed Income Investor MeetingsFebruary 2008February 2008

Page 2: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

This material includes forwardThis material includes forward--looking statements that are subject to looking statements that are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Such forwardcertain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Such forward--looking looking statements include projected earnings, cash flows, capital statements include projected earnings, cash flows, capital expenditures and other statements and are identified in this docexpenditures and other statements and are identified in this document ument by the words by the words ““anticipate,anticipate,”” ““estimate,estimate,”” ““expect,expect,”” ““projected,projected,””““objective,objective,”” ““outlook,outlook,”” ““possible,possible,”” ““potentialpotential”” and similar and similar expressions. Actual results may vary materially. Factors that expressions. Actual results may vary materially. Factors that could could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not lcause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to: imited to: general economic conditions, including the availability of credigeneral economic conditions, including the availability of credit, t, actions of rating agencies and their impact on capital expendituactions of rating agencies and their impact on capital expenditures; res; business conditions in the energy industry; competitive factors;business conditions in the energy industry; competitive factors;unusual weather; effects of geopolitical events, including war aunusual weather; effects of geopolitical events, including war and acts nd acts of terrorism; changes in federal or state legislation; regulatioof terrorism; changes in federal or state legislation; regulation; actions n; actions of accounting regulatory bodies; and other risk factors listed fof accounting regulatory bodies; and other risk factors listed from rom time to time by Xcel Energy in reports filed with the SEC, inclutime to time by Xcel Energy in reports filed with the SEC, including ding Exhibit 99.01 to Xcel EnergyExhibit 99.01 to Xcel Energy’’s report on Form 10s report on Form 10--K for year 2006.K for year 2006.

Safe HarborSafe Harbor

Page 3: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Traditional RegulationTraditional Regulation

Operate in 8 StatesOperate in 8 States

Combination UtilityCombination UtilityElectric 85% of net incomeElectric 85% of net incomeGas 15% of net incomeGas 15% of net income

CustomersCustomers3.3 million electric3.3 million electric1.8 million gas1.8 million gas

2007 Financial Statistics2007 Financial StatisticsNI Ongoing: $612 million NI Ongoing: $612 million NI GAAP: $577 millionNI GAAP: $577 millionAssets: $23 billionAssets: $23 billionEquity ratio: 43%Equity ratio: 43%

Company ProfileCompany Profile

NSPNSP--WisconsinWisconsin7% of net income*7% of net income*

NSPNSP--MinnesotaMinnesota47% of net income*47% of net income*

SPSSPS8% of net income*8% of net income*

PSCoPSCo38% of net income*38% of net income*

2007 EPS Ongoing: $1.43, GAAP: $1.352007 EPS Ongoing: $1.43, GAAP: $1.352007 Dividend $0.92 per share annualized2007 Dividend $0.92 per share annualized

* Percentages based on 2006 Net Income* Percentages based on 2006 Net Income

Page 4: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Xcel Energy Corporate StrategyXcel Energy Corporate Strategy

Achieve annual EPS growth of 5 Achieve annual EPS growth of 5 –– 7%7%Increase dividend by 2 Increase dividend by 2 –– 4% annually4% annuallyReduce emissions by 2020Reduce emissions by 2020

Grow our core business andGrow our core business andmeet the environmental challengemeet the environmental challenge

Page 5: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Carbon StrategyCarbon Strategy

Reduce carbonReduce carbon emissions associated with electric emissions associated with electric service by 2020service by 2020Implement strategy by operating companyImplement strategy by operating companyMaintain reasonable ratesMaintain reasonable ratesEnsure appropriate regulatory treatmentEnsure appropriate regulatory treatment

Page 6: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Actions to Reduce Carbon Actions to Reduce Carbon

Increase renewable energyIncrease renewable energy

Uprate and extend lives of nuclear plantsUprate and extend lives of nuclear plants

Expand demandExpand demand--side management,side management,energy efficiency and conservation effortsenergy efficiency and conservation efforts

Upgrade environmental systems and improve Upgrade environmental systems and improve generation plant efficiencygeneration plant efficiency

Replace/repower inefficient generationReplace/repower inefficient generation

Evaluate clean coal carbon capture and storageEvaluate clean coal carbon capture and storage

Scope and develop Smart Grid conceptScope and develop Smart Grid concept

Page 7: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Minnesota Resource PlanMinnesota Resource Plan

Reduces carbon emission by 22% by 2020Reduces carbon emission by 22% by 2020

Adds 2,600 megawatts of wind by 2020Adds 2,600 megawatts of wind by 2020

Seeks to expand output from Prairie Island and Seeks to expand output from Prairie Island and Monticello nuclear plants by 230 MWMonticello nuclear plants by 230 MW

Requests environmental upgrades and capacity Requests environmental upgrades and capacity expansion of 80 MW at expansion of 80 MW at ShercoSherco

Seeks approval of Manitoba Hydro 375 MW PPASeeks approval of Manitoba Hydro 375 MW PPA

Would add 2,300 MW of natural gas generationWould add 2,300 MW of natural gas generation

Expands DSM effortsExpands DSM efforts

Plan requires Commission approvalPlan requires Commission approval

Page 8: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Colorado Resource PlanColorado Resource Plan

Reduces carbon emission by 10% by 2017 and puts Reduces carbon emission by 10% by 2017 and puts PSCo PSCo on path to achieve 20% reduction by 2020on path to achieve 20% reduction by 2020

Adds 800 MW of wind by 2015Adds 800 MW of wind by 2015

Replaces four coal units with natural gas generationReplaces four coal units with natural gas generation

Acquire 25 MW of solar with plans to add up to 200 Acquire 25 MW of solar with plans to add up to 200 MW of solar as technology developsMW of solar as technology develops

Expands DSM effortsExpands DSM efforts

Plan requires Commission approvalPlan requires Commission approval

Page 9: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Changing Supply Mix Changing Supply Mix

Coal Coal ****46%46%

GasGas17%17%

NuclearNuclear13%13%

Estimated 2020 Estimated 2020 Energy Supply Mix *Energy Supply Mix *

** Includes purchasesIncludes purchases**** LowLow--sulfur western coalsulfur western coal

20062006Energy Supply Mix *Energy Supply Mix *

NuclearNuclear12%12%

Coal Coal ****52% 52%

GasGas27%27%

RenewablesRenewables9%9%

Renewables Renewables 24%24%

Page 10: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Success FactorsSuccess Factors

Key components of past growthKey components of past growth—— Constructive rate case outcomesConstructive rate case outcomes—— MERPMERP—— Comanche 3Comanche 3

Key components of future growthKey components of future growth—— Transmission riders (MN, CO, ND, SD)Transmission riders (MN, CO, ND, SD)—— Favorable wind recovery (MN, CO)Favorable wind recovery (MN, CO)—— Environmental rider (MN)Environmental rider (MN)—— Planned forward test year (CO)Planned forward test year (CO)—— Nuclear recovery mechanism (MN)Nuclear recovery mechanism (MN)—— Southwestern Public Service (SPS)Southwestern Public Service (SPS)

Page 11: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Capital Expenditure ForecastCapital Expenditure Forecast

Dollars in millionsDollars in millionsDollars in millions Denotes enhanced recovery mechanismDenotes enhanced recovery mechanismDenotes enhanced recovery mechanism20082008 20092009 20102010 20112011

Base & Other Base & Other $1,245$1,245 $1,285$1,285 $1,310$1,310 $1,300$1,300MERPMERP 170170 2525 1010 00Comanche 3Comanche 3 330330 6060 1010 00MN Wind Tran/CapX 2020MN Wind Tran/CapX 2020 4040 6565 115115 270270Sherco UpgradeSherco Upgrade 55 2020 7575 230230MN Wind GenerationMN Wind Generation 135135 00 00 00Nuclear Capacity/Life ExtNuclear Capacity/Life Ext 7575 120120 180180 200200Fort St. Fort St. Vrain Vrain CTCT 100100 2525 00 00Total CommittedTotal Committed $2,100$2,100 $1,600$1,600 $1,700$1,700 $2,000$2,000

Potential ProjectsPotential Projects 00--100100 200200--400400 200200--400 400 200200--500500RangeRange $2,100$2,100-- $1,800$1,800-- $1,900$1,900-- $2,200$2,200--

$2,200$2,200 $2,000$2,000 $2,100$2,100 $2,500$2,500

Page 12: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Recovery on Capital Investment *Recovery on Capital Investment *

* Capital forecast based on middle of range* Capital forecast based on middle of range

Depreciation

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,800

2008 2009 2010 2011

Traditional Recovery Enhanced Recovery

Dollars in millionsDollars in millions

$2,150$2,150$1,900$1,900 $2,000$2,000

$2,350$2,350

Page 13: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Potential Cash from Operations Potential Cash from Operations

* Net Income growth based on middle of range* Net Income growth based on middle of range

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2008 2009 2010 2011Net Income * Depreciation NOL

Dollars in millionsDollars in millions

Page 14: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Delivering on Rate Base Growth *Delivering on Rate Base Growth *

$16.9$15.7$14.9$14.0$12.8$11.7

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

CAGR = 7.5%CAGR = 7.5%

Dollars in billionsDollars in billions

* Growth based on middle of capital forecast range* Growth based on middle of capital forecast range

Page 15: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Regulated Utility $1.55 $1.61 – $1.71 Holding Company $(0.12) $(0.16) Ongoing Earnings $1.43 $1.45 – $1.55

PSRI/COLI $(0.08) –Continuing Operations $1.35 $1.45 - $1.55Disc Ops – –GAAP Earnings $1.35 $1.45 – $1.55

Regulated UtilityRegulated Utility $1.55 $1.55 $1.61 $1.61 –– $1.71 $1.71 Holding CompanyHolding Company $(0.12)$(0.12) $(0.16) $(0.16) Ongoing Earnings Ongoing Earnings $1.43$1.43 $1.45 $1.45 –– $1.55$1.55

PSRI/COLIPSRI/COLI $(0.08)$(0.08) ––Continuing OperationsContinuing Operations $1.35$1.35 $1.45 $1.45 -- $1.55$1.55Disc Ops Disc Ops –– ––GAAP Earnings $1.35GAAP Earnings $1.35 $1.45 $1.45 –– $1.55$1.55

Earnings Guidance Range Earnings Guidance Range

2007A2007A2007A 200820082008Dollars per shareDollars per share

Page 16: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Delivering on 5Delivering on 5--7% EPS Growth7% EPS Growth

$1.15$1.15$1.30$1.30

$1.43$1.43

2005 2005 OngoingOngoing

2006 2006 OngoingOngoing

2007 2007 OngoingOngoing

Guidance RangeGuidance Range

13%10%

$1.45 $1.45 -- $1.55$1.55

5%*

2008 2008 GuidanceGuidance

Ongoing EPS excludes the impacts of COLI and disc ops.Ongoing EPS excludes the impacts of COLI and disc ops.A reconciliation to GAAP earnings is included in the appendix.A reconciliation to GAAP earnings is included in the appendix.

~~

* Estimated growth rate based on middle of guidance range* Estimated growth rate based on middle of guidance range

Page 17: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Debt MaturitiesDebt Maturities

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

SPSPSCoNSPWNSPMXcel Energy

Dollars in millionsDollars in millionsDollars in millions

Page 18: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

2008 Financing Plans2008 Financing Plans

Issued $400 million of retail hybrid securities with a Issued $400 million of retail hybrid securities with a 7.6% coupon in January 20087.6% coupon in January 2008

Plan to issue $400Plan to issue $400--$500 million of first mortgage $500 million of first mortgage bonds at NSPbonds at NSP--Minnesota in the first quarterMinnesota in the first quarter

Plan to issue up to $250 million of first mortgage Plan to issue up to $250 million of first mortgage bonds at NSPbonds at NSP--Wisconsin in the third quarterWisconsin in the third quarter

Plan to issue $500Plan to issue $500--$600 million of first mortgage $600 million of first mortgage bonds at bonds at PSCoPSCo in the third quarter in the third quarter

All financing plans are subject to change, depending All financing plans are subject to change, depending on capital expenditures, internal cash generation, on capital expenditures, internal cash generation, market conditions and other factorsmarket conditions and other factors

Page 19: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Senior Debt RatingsSenior Debt Ratings

SecuredSecured UnsecuredUnsecuredFitch Moody’s S&P Fitch Moody’s S&PFitch Moody’s S&P Fitch Moody’s S&P

Holding Co. BBB+ Baa1 BBBNSPM A+ A2 A A A3 BBBNSPW A+ A2 A A A3 BBB+ PSCo A A3 A A- Baa1 BBBSPS BBB+ Baa1 BBB+

Holding Co. BBB+ Baa1 BBBNSPM A+ A2 A A A3 BBBNSPW A+ A2 A A A3 BBB+ PSCo A A3 A A- Baa1 BBBSPS BBB+ Baa1 BBB+

Page 20: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Attractive Value PropositionAttractive Value Proposition

Low risk, fully regulated and integrated utilityLow risk, fully regulated and integrated utility

Constructive regulatory environment with enhanced Constructive regulatory environment with enhanced recovery of major capital projectsrecovery of major capital projects

Pipeline of investment opportunitiesPipeline of investment opportunities

Environmental leader, wellEnvironmental leader, well--positionedpositionedfor changing rulesfor changing rules

Attractive Total ReturnAttractive Total ReturnSustainable annual EPS growth of 5% Sustainable annual EPS growth of 5% –– 7%7%with upside potentialwith upside potentialStrong dividend yield of 4.5%Strong dividend yield of 4.5%Sustainable annual dividend growth of 2% Sustainable annual dividend growth of 2% –– 4%4%

~~

Page 21: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

AppendixAppendix

Page 22: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

$0

$400

$800

$1,200

$1,600

$2,000

$2,400

$2,800

2008 2009 2010 2011

Potential Projects

Common/Other

Nuclear Fuel

Gas

Elec Distribution

Elec Transmission

Elec Generation

Capital Investment Opportunities *Capital Investment Opportunities *

* Capital forecast based on middle of range* Capital forecast based on middle of range

Dollars in millionsDollars in millions

Page 23: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Capital ExpendituresCapital Expendituresby Operating Company *by Operating Company *

20082008 20092009 20102010 20112011

NSPMNSPM $935$935 $955$955 $1,060$1,060 $1,380$1,380

PSCoPSCo 945945 650650 680680 750750

SPS SPS 170170 205 205 180 180 140140

NSPWNSPW 100100 90 90 8080 80 80 TotalTotal $2,150$2,150 $1,900$1,900 $2,000$2,000 $2,350$2,350

Dollars in millionsDollars in millions

* Capital forecast based on middle of range* Capital forecast based on middle of range

Page 24: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Capital Expenditures by Function *Capital Expenditures by Function *

20082008 20092009 20102010 20112011

Elec GenerationElec Generation $935$935 $480$480 $525$525 $745$745Elec TransmissionElec Transmission 300300 325325 390 390 500500Elec DistributionElec Distribution 355355 345 345 355 355 360360GasGas 140140 155 155 160160 155 155 Nuclear FuelNuclear Fuel 145145 150150 140140 105105Common/OtherCommon/Other 225225 145145 130130 135135Potential ProjectsPotential Projects 5050 300300 300300 350350TotalTotal $2,150$2,150 $1,900$1,900 $2,000$2,000 $2,350$2,350

* Capital forecast based on middle of range* Capital forecast based on middle of range

Dollars in millionsDollars in millions

Page 25: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Ongoing Earnings $1.15 $1.30 $1.43PSRI/COLI $0.05 $0.05 $(0.08)Continuing Operations $1.20 $1.35 $1.35Disc Ops $0.03 $0.01 –GAAP Earnings $1.23 $1.36 $1.35

Ongoing Earnings Ongoing Earnings $1.15 $1.15 $1.30$1.30 $1.43$1.43PSRI/COLIPSRI/COLI $0.05$0.05 $0.05$0.05 $(0.08)$(0.08)Continuing OperationsContinuing Operations $1.20$1.20 $1.35$1.35 $1.35$1.35Disc Ops Disc Ops $0.03$0.03 $0.01 $0.01 ––GAAP Earnings $1.23 GAAP Earnings $1.23 $1.36$1.36 $1.35$1.35

Reconciliation Reconciliation -- Ongoing EPS to GAAP Ongoing EPS to GAAP

200720072007Dollars per shareDollars per share

200620062006200520052005

As a result of the termination of the COLI program, Xcel Energy’s management believes that ongoing earnings provide a more meaningful comparison of earnings results between different periods in which the COLI program was in place and is more representative of Xcel Energy’s fundamental core earnings power. Xcel Energy’s management uses ongoing earnings internally for financial planning and analysis, for reporting of results to the Board of Directors, in determining whether performance targets are met for performance-based compensation, and when communicating its earnings outlook to analysts and investors.

Page 26: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

2006 Rate Case Outcomes2006 Rate Case Outcomes

Colorado Electric $208 $151 11.0% 10.5%

Minnesota Electric $156 $131/115* 11.0% 10.54%

Wisconsin Electric $53.1 $43.4 11.9% 11.0%

Colorado Gas $34.5 $22.0 11.0% 10.5%

Wisconsin Gas $7.8 $3.9 11.9% 11.0%

Colorado Electric Colorado Electric $208$208 $151 $151 11.0%11.0% 10.5%10.5%

Minnesota ElectricMinnesota Electric $156$156 $131/115* $131/115* 11.0%11.0% 10.54%10.54%

Wisconsin ElectricWisconsin Electric $53.1$53.1 $43.4$43.4 11.9%11.9% 11.0%11.0%

Colorado GasColorado Gas $34.5$34.5 $22.0$22.0 11.0%11.0% 10.5%10.5%

Wisconsin GasWisconsin Gas $7.8$7.8 $3.9$3.9 11.9%11.9% 11.0%11.0%

Dollar IncreaseDollar IncreaseDollar Increase Return on EquityReturn on EquityReturn on EquityRequested GrantedRequestedRequested GrantedGranted Requested GrantedRequestedRequested GrantedGranted

* $131 million for 2006 reduced to $115 million in 2007 * $131 million for 2006 reduced to $115 million in 2007 for large customer coming onfor large customer coming on--line January 1, 2007 line January 1, 2007

Dollars in millionsDollars in millions

Page 27: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

2007 Rate Case Outcomes 2007 Rate Case Outcomes

Texas Electric $48.0 $23.0 11.6% N/A

Colorado Gas $41.9 $32.3 11.0% 10.25%

Minnesota Gas $18.5 $11.9 11.0% 9.71%

North Dakota Gas $2.8 $2.3 11.3% 10.75%

Wisconsin Electric $67.4 $39.4 11.0% 10.75%

Wisconsin Gas $5.3 $5.3 11.0% 10.75%

Texas ElectricTexas Electric $48.0$48.0 $23.0$23.0 11.6% N/A 11.6% N/A

Colorado GasColorado Gas $41.9$41.9 $32.3$32.3 11.0%11.0% 10.25%10.25%

Minnesota GasMinnesota Gas $18.5$18.5 $11.9$11.9 11.0%11.0% 9.71%9.71%

North Dakota GasNorth Dakota Gas $2.8$2.8 $2.3 $2.3 11.3%11.3% 10.75%10.75%

Wisconsin ElectricWisconsin Electric $67.4$67.4 $39.4$39.4 11.0%11.0% 10.75%10.75%

Wisconsin GasWisconsin Gas $5.3$5.3 $5.3$5.3 11.0%11.0% 10.75%10.75%

Dollar IncreaseDollar Increase Return on EquityReturn on EquityRequested GrantedRequested Granted Requested GrantedRequested Granted

Dollars in millionsDollars in millions

Page 28: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

Pending Rate CasesPending Rate Cases

RevenueRevenue RequestedRequested InterimInterimJurisdictionJurisdiction RequestRequest ROEROE RateRate DecisionDecision

New Mexico ElectricNew Mexico Electric $17.3$17.3 11.0%11.0% N/AN/A Summer 2008Summer 2008

No. Dakota ElectricNo. Dakota Electric $20.5$20.5 11.5% 2/200811.5% 2/2008 Summer 2008 Summer 2008

Dollars in millionsDollars in millions

Page 29: XEL_Fixed_Income_Presentation_February2008

2006 Rate Base and ROE2006 Rate Base and ROE

Minnesota ElectricMinnesota Electric $3,599$3,599 10.3%10.3%Minnesota GasMinnesota Gas 441441 6.16.1North Dakota ElectricNorth Dakota Electric 188188 8.98.9North Dakota GasNorth Dakota Gas 4444 7.57.5South Dakota ElectricSouth Dakota Electric 232232 11.111.1Colorado ElectricColorado Electric 3,2923,292 7.77.7Colorado GasColorado Gas 1,1061,106 7.87.8Wisconsin ElectricWisconsin Electric 556556 10.810.8Wisconsin GasWisconsin Gas 7777 7.47.4Texas ElectricTexas Electric 977 977 6.56.5New Mexico ElectricNew Mexico Electric 311311 6.26.2WholesaleWholesale 879879 Not ReportedNot ReportedTotal Rate Base $11,702Total Rate Base $11,702

Weather NormalizedRate Base Earned ROE

Weather NormalizedWeather NormalizedRate BaseRate Base Earned ROEEarned ROE

Dollars in millionsDollars in millions