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SMU Classification: Restricted XUEYING BIAN (边雪莹) School of Economics, Singapore Management University https://bxyxdd.wixsite.com/website [email protected] Contact Information School of Economics Singapore Management University 90 Stamford Road Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore Cell: +86 13384853619 / +65 93462321 Personal Information: Date of birth: 1991/02/14 Sex: Female Citizenship: Chinese Undergraduate Studies: B.A. in International Economics and Trade (Rank 2/91), Nankai University, 2010-2014 Exchange, University of Glasgow, 2012 Masters Level Work: M.Phil. in Economics and Finance (Full scholarship), CEMFI, 2014-2016 Graduate Studies: Singapore Management University (Full scholarship), 2016 to present Thesis Title: Three Essays on Empirical Finance Expected Completion Date: June, 2021 Thesis Committee and References: Jun Yu (co-advisor) Jun Tu (co-advisor) School of Economics Singapore Management University 90 Stamford Road Singapore 178903 Phone: +65 6828 0858 Email: [email protected] Lee Kong Chian School of Business Singapore Management University 50 Stamford Road Singapore 178899 Phone: +65 6828 0764 Email: [email protected] Daniel Preve School of Economics Singapore Management University 90 Stamford Road Singapore 178903 Phone: +65 6826 1352 Email: [email protected] Teaching and Research Fields: Primary fields: Asset Pricing, Corporate Finance, Strategic Management, FinTech Secondary fields: Energy Economics
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Page 1: XUEYING BIAN (边雪莹 School of Economics, Singapore ...

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XUEYING BIAN (边雪莹)

School of Economics, Singapore Management University https://bxyxdd.wixsite.com/website

[email protected]

Contact Information

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore

Cell: +86 13384853619 / +65 93462321

Personal Information: Date of birth: 1991/02/14 Sex: Female Citizenship: Chinese

Undergraduate Studies:

B.A. in International Economics and Trade (Rank 2/91), Nankai University, 2010-2014

Exchange, University of Glasgow, 2012

Masters Level Work: M.Phil. in Economics and Finance (Full scholarship), CEMFI, 2014-2016

Graduate Studies:

Singapore Management University (Full scholarship), 2016 to present

Thesis Title: Three Essays on Empirical Finance

Expected Completion Date: June, 2021

Thesis Committee and References:

Jun Yu (co-advisor) Jun Tu (co-advisor)

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903

Phone: +65 6828 0858

Email: [email protected]

Lee Kong Chian School of Business

Singapore Management University

50 Stamford Road

Singapore 178899

Phone: +65 6828 0764

Email: [email protected]

Daniel Preve

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903

Phone: +65 6826 1352

Email: [email protected]

Teaching and Research Fields:

Primary fields: Asset Pricing, Corporate Finance, Strategic Management, FinTech

Secondary fields: Energy Economics

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Teaching Experience:

Instructor:

2019 - 2020 Intermediate Mathematics for Economics, Singapore Management University

2017 - 2018 Theory of Dynamic Programming (Summer Camp), Singapore Management University

Teaching Assistant:

2019 - 2020 Analysis of Derivative Securities, Singapore Management University

2019 - 2020 Analysis of Equity Securities, Singapore Management University

2017 - 2019 Advanced Macroeconomics (II), Singapore Management University

2017 - 2019 Derivative Securities, Singapore Management University

2016 - 2017 Introductory Statistics, Singapore Management University

Teaching Certificate:

Certificate for graduate instructor, Center for English Communication, Singapore Management University

Research Experience:

2019 - 2020 Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Research (joint with WeBank)

Professional Activities:

2015 Internship at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), Madrid, Spain

Conference and Seminar Presentations:

Invited Talks:

2020 University of International Business and Economics, School of International Trade and

Economics

University of International Business and Economics, School of International Banking &

Finance

Tianjin University, College of Management and Economics

Conference Presentations:

2020 Financial Management Association Annual Meeting, online

2020 17th Chinese Finance Annual Meeting, online

2020 5th Qi Lu Youth Forum, Shandong University, online

2019 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society, Xiamen, China

2018 Spring Meeting of Young Economists, Mallorca, Spain

Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships:

2020 Multidisciplinary Doctoral Fellowship, Singapore Management University

2019 Presidential Doctoral Fellowship, Singapore Management University

2019 Graduate Instructor Fellowship, Singapore Management University

2016 - 2020 Ph.D. Full Scholarship, Singapore Management University

2018 Ph.D. Student Life Award Winner, Singapore Management University

2017 First Year Best Performance Award, Singapore Management University

2014 - 2016 Master Full Scholarship, CEMFI

2012 & 2013 Scholarship for Academic Excellence (Top 5%), Nankai University

2011 Tianjin Government Scholarship (Top 1%), Tianjin Municipal People’s Government

2011 & 2014 Merit Student of Nankai University, Nankai University

Publications:

“Incentives for Information Provision: Energy Efficiency in the Spanish Rental Market”, with

Natalia Fabra, Energy Economics (2020): 104813 (SSCI, JCR Q1)

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Research Papers:

“Return Cross-Predictability in Firms with Similar Employee Satisfaction” , with Sergei

Sarkissian, Jun Tu and Ran Zhang (Job Market Paper)

Presented at 2020 Financial Management Association Annual Meeting; 17th Chinese Finance Annual

Meeting; 2019 Workshop on Asset Pricing and Risk Management at the National University of

Singapore; and seminars in Fudan University, Peking University HBSC Business School, Jinan

University, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, and East China University of Science and

Technology.

Abstract: This study uses Glassdoor data and finds that the returns of similar employee satisfaction

(SES) firms predict focal firm returns. A long-short portfolio sorted on the lagged returns of SES firms

yields the Fama-French six-factor alpha of 135 bps per month. The observed predictability is distinct

from existing inter-firm momentum effects and cannot be explained by risk-based arguments. The return

predictability across SES firms may reflect a new type of cross-firm link derived from the knowledge

spillovers about employee welfare policies via social transmission (e.g., personal interchange among

employees from different firms).

“Investee Peers and the Imitation of Corporate Social Strategy”, with Xinhao Qiao and Jinyu He

Presented at 2020 Academy of Management Conference; 2019 Asia Management Research Consortium;

2019 HKUST Macro-brown Bag; and seminars in CEIBS and the University of Auckland.

Strategic Management Journal, Under Review

Abstract: As institutional ownership becomes prevalent, firms are linked to a unique group of investee

peers with whom they share common investors. To compete for limited financial resources, each firm

likely refers to its investee peers and imitates those behaviors deemed desirable by the investors. In this

study, we hypothesize and find that the high CSR performance of investee peers motivates the focal firm

to improve its own CSR performance. The investee peers’ influence remains after controlling for possible

selection and propagation effects. Furthermore, the peer effect is more pronounced if the firm’s investee

peers are linked by dedicated (versus transient) institutional investors or its CEO has higher equity

ownership. However, the firm’s prior financial performance weakens the investee peer effect on CSR.

“Tweet More or Less: How does CEO Language Skill Impact Firm Stock Return?”, with Ran

Zhang

Abstract: This paper studies the effects of CEO tweeting on firm valuation based on the U.S. sample

firms from 2012 to 2018. By creating a measure of CEO language skill, we show that for firms associated

with CEOs that are good at communicating, firms can benefit from CEO’s higher exposure on social

media, while for firms with low CEO language skills, firms are better off when CEO speak less on social

media. We find the results hold across different countries (such as France, Germany, and the United

Kingdom). The possible mechanisms behind our documented findings are shown to be limited attention

and limits to arbitrage. And our documented effects are more likely to be explained by behavior bias

other than risk explanations.

Work in Progress:

“Director Network and Return Predictability”, with Xinhao Qiao and Jun Tu

Presented at 2019 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society.

“Setting Backfire, How Nonbinding Shareholder Voting Behaviors Affects Board Monitoring ”, with

Jiatao Li and Xinhao Qiao

“Do Small Institutional Owners Count and How? Evidence on Corporate Social Responsibility

Performance”, with Xinhao Qiao

“Board Facial Similarity and Firm Stock Returns”, with Jun Tu and Ran Zhang

Computer Skills: R, Python, SAS, MATLAB, Stata, Latex

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Languages: Mandarin (Native), English (Fluent), Spanish (Elementary)

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CHEN Han

School of Economics, Singapore Management University

[email protected]

Contact Information

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore

Handphone/Cell: +86 15806007938

Personal Information: Date of Birthday: 1st January 1990

Gender: Male

Citizenship: China

Undergraduate Studies:

BA, Economics, School of Economics, Xiamen University, 2012.

Masters Level Work:

MSc, Financial Econometrics, School of Economics, Singapore Management University, 2014

Graduate Studies:

Singapore Management University, 2020

Thesis Title: “Essays on Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models”

Thesis Committee and References:

Jun Yu(advisor) Yichong Zhang

Lee Kong Chian Professor of

Economics and Finance

School of Economics

Lee Kong Chian School of Business

Singapore Management University

Phone: +65 68280858

Email: [email protected]

Assistant Professor of Economics

Lee Kong Chian Fellow

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

Phone: +65 68280881 Email: [email protected]

Daniel Preve

Associate Professor of Economics

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

Phone: +65 68261352

Email: [email protected]

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Teaching and Research Fields:

Primary fields: Bayesian Econometrics

Secondary fields: Financial Econometrics, Time Series Analysis

Teaching Experience: Teaching Assistant, School of Economics, Singapore Management University

2015-2020: Financial Econometrics (Graduate)

2016-2019: Advanced Econometrics (Graduate)

2019-2020: Introduction to Statistics

Research Experience: 2014-2016: Research Assistant, School of Economics, Singapore Management University

2019-2020: Research Assistant, School of Economics, Singapore Management University

Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships: 2015-2019: Graduate Full Scholarship (Ph.D. Program), Ministry of Education, Singapore

2005: First prize Award, National Olympiad informatics in Province, China

Seminar Presentation: 2020 Capital University of Economics and Business, International School of Economics and

Management

Working Papers: “Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models based on Generalized Fisher Transformation” with

Yijie Fei and Jun Yu (Job Market Paper)

Abstract: Modeling multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) faces a few challenges when both

variances and covariances are time-varying. The main challenges come from the assurance of positive-

definiteness of the variance-covariance matrix and the statistical analysis of MSV models. In this paper,

we introduce a new MSV model which is based on the generalized Fisher transformation of Archakov

and Hansen (2018). This specification is highly flexible where the variance-covariance matrix is always

positive-definiteness. Moreover, driving factors of volatilities and correlations are separated in the

model. A Particle Gibbs Ancestor Sampling (PGAS) method is proposed to conduct Bayesian analysis

of the model. The method facilitates the Bayesian model comparison. The MSV model and the

estimation method are extended to include realized measures. Simulation studies show that the proposed

method works well for the MSV model. Empirical studies based on exchange-rate and equity returns

suggest that the proposed MSV model provides superior in-sample and out-of-sample performance.

“Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Model with Flexible Dynamic Correlations, Leverage effect

and Heavy-tailed error” with Yijie Fei and Jun Yu

Abstract: We consider an extension of flexible multivariate stochastic volatility model based on

generalized Fisher transformation by incorporating the leverage effect and heavy-tailed error distribution.

A particle-filter-based Gibbs sampling algorithm is adopted for the inference of the model. Simulation

results indicate that our algorithm performs well when a small number of particles are used. An empirical

study on three stock indices is provided. In summary, we find strong evidence of the leverage effect as

well as heavy tails in the error.

Working in Progress: “A Bayesian Method for Fractional Gaussian Noise” with Jun Yu

“Bayesian Estimation for Fractional O-U Process with Applications in Financial Time Series” with

Jun Yu

“Bayesian Analysis of Fractional Stochastic Volatility Model” with Jun Yu

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Computer Skills: MATLAB, R, Python, STATA, Eviews, Latex, Linux

Languages: English (Fluent), Chinese (Native), Japanese(Basic)

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RENJING CHEN

School of Economics, Singapore Management University https://renjingchen.wixsite.com/renjingchen

[email protected]

Contact Information

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore

Handphone/Cell: (65) 9015-3203

Personal Information: Female, Chinese

Undergraduate Studies:

Bachelor, Economics, Hubei University of Economics, 2009-2013

Masters Level Work:

Master, Economics, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, 2013-2016

Graduate Studies:

Singapore Management University, 2016 to present Thesis Title: The Impacts of GATT/WTO on Firm-level Trade Structure: 1978-2015

Expected Completion Date: June 2021

Thesis Committee and References:

Pao-Li Chang (advisor) Yuan Mei School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903 (65) 6828-0830

[email protected]

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903 (65) 6808-5212 [email protected]

Amanda Jakobsson

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903 (65) 6808-5467

[email protected]

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Teaching and Research Fields:

Primary fields: International Trade

Secondary fields: Chinese Economy

Teaching Experience:

Teaching Certificate:

Certificate for Graduate Instructor, Center for English Communication, SMU

Teaching Assistant:

2020 Economics and Society

2019 Labor Economics 2018 Introductory Economics 2017 Economics of Globalization 2016 Human Capital and Economics of Education

Research Experience:

Research Grant:

2017-2019 National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.71603061)

Co-principal Investigator

Title: Study on the Effect of Population Structure on the Housing Demand of Urban

Residents: Influence Mechanism and Empirical Study

2014-2017 National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.71403061)

Co-principal Investigator

Title: Households Consumption Risk Sharing in China: Empirical Investigation, Welfare

Analysis, and Policies Evaluations

2015-2016 National Social Science Fund of China (Grant No.15ZDA013)

Research Assistant

Title: Study on Establishing a Multi-point Supported Pattern of Consumption Growth in the

“New Normal” Economy

2013-2016 National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.71373057)

Research Assistant

Title: Study on the Effect of Population Structure on Household Consumption in China:

Micro-mechanism, Empirical Test, and Macro-policies

Research Assistant Experience:

2018 Research Assistant for Professor Yuan Mei

2013-2016 Research Assistant for Professor Xingjian Yi

2014-2016 Research Assistant for Professor Te Lai

Professional Activities:

Member: American Economic Association, Econometric Society

Conference and Seminar Presentations:

2020 Chinese Economic Association (Europe/UK) Conference, University of Surrey (scheduled)

China Economics Annual Conference, Peking University HSBC Business School (scheduled)

IAER Seminar, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics

New Structural Seminar, Xi'an Jiaotong University and Peking University

Young Economist Society

2015 China Economics Annual Conference, East China Normal University

China Household Finance Forum, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

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Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships:

2020-2021 Presidential Doctoral Fellowship, Singapore Management University 2016-2020 Graduate Full Scholarship (Ph.D. Program), Singapore Management University 2014-2015 Outstanding Student Cadre, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies

Research Papers:

“The Impacts of GATT/WTO on Firm-level Trade Structure: 1978-2015” with Pao-Li Chang and

Wei Jin (Job Market Paper)

Abstract: In this paper, we develop an estimation procedure to identify the partial (direct) effects of the

GATT/WTO membership on variable and fixed trade costs, respectively. This procedure extends the

techniques of Anderson and Van Wincoop (2003) on the structural relationship of multilateral resistance

terms and of Helpman, Melitz and Rubinstein (2008) on the structural modeling of trade incidence. We

then develop a general equilibrium framework (that allows for the presence of zero trade) to simulate the

impact of variable, fixed, and total trade cost changes on the firm-level trade structure (including the

bilateral export productivity cutoff, the weighted/unweighted extensive margin of export, the intensive

margin, and the mass of active firms), the bilateral trade flow, and the aggregate welfare due to the

GATT/WTO system (given the trade cost effects estimated in the first stage) for the period 1978-2015.

“Information Asymmetry and Dynamic Souring: Evidence from Chinese Firms” (under review)

Abstract: Information asymmetry can create substantial frictions when importing firms find it difficult to acquire information about foreign products. I use detailed China Customs Data to show that firms tend to import from countries with which they already have an importing relationship. Motivated by this fact, I develop a dynamic model describing firms’ decisions on their choice of sourcing country. This model incorporates both communication cost and satisfaction uncertainty, which are lower with familiar countries than with unfamiliar ones. Using this model, I estimate the benefits of importing from familiar countries measured by the probability improvement of receiving satisfactory products. I find that this probability can be improved by a maximum of 89.0 percent when importing from familiar countries instead of from unfamiliar ones. These results also support the prediction that the effective unit cost of intermediates is lower when importing from familiar countries.

“Diligence Redeems Stupidity: Substitution between Managerial Effort and Financial

Development” with Wei Jin and Yuting Chen (under review)

Abstract: This paper presents a heterogeneous firm model à la Melitz (2003) in which firms suffer from

both the agency problem internally and financial constraints externally. We show that conditional on the

same raw productivity draw, managers of potential exporting firms around the export cutoff in financially

underdeveloped countries exert more effort than their counterparts in financially developed countries, so

as to induce their owners to export. This finding has very positive policy implications, as firms in

financially underdeveloped countries can compete with their peers in financially developed countries by

exerting more managerial effort. We find clear empirical evidence for this theoretical prediction by using

the World Management Survey data for more than 7,000 firms in 20 countries during 2002-2012.

Work in Progress: “Product Likeness and the Impact of Non-tariff Measures” with Yuan Mei and Shenxi Song

Computer Skills: MATLAB, Stata, LaTeX, Python

Languages:

English (fluent), Chinese (native)

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FEI, YIJIE

School of Economics, Singapore Management University Personal Webpage: yijiefei.weebly.com

Email: [email protected]

Contact Information

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore

Handphone/Cell: (86) 13621857352

Personal Information: Date of Birth: 11/07/1992, Shanghai

Gender: Male

Citizenship: Chinese

Undergraduate Studies:

B.Econ., major in Taxation, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, 2014.

Exchange student, University of Canterbury (New Zealand), Jul 2012-Dec 2012

Masters Level Work: M.A., Economics, Vancouver School of Economics, University of British Columbia, 2015

Graduate Studies:

Ph.D., Economics, Singapore Management University, Aug 2015-Aug 2020

(Interdisciplinary PhD program in Economics and Finance) Thesis Title: Essays on Time Series and Financial Econometrics

Thesis Committee and References:

Jun Yu (advisor) Peter C.B. Phillips

Lee Kong Chian Professor of Economics and

Finance

School of Economics and

Lee Kong Chian School of Business

Singapore Management University

Phone: +65 6828 0858

Email: [email protected]

Sterling Emeritus Professor of Economics &

Professor of Statistics

Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics

Yale University

Box 208281

New Haven, Connecticut USA 06520-8281

Phone: (203) 432-3695

Email: [email protected]

Yichong Zhang

Assistant Professor of Economics

Lee Kong Chian Fellow

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

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Phone: +65 6828 0881

Email: [email protected]

Teaching and Research Fields:

Primary fields: Financial Econometrics, Time Series Analysis

Secondary fields: Empirical Finance, Econometric Theory

Teaching Experience:

Teaching Assistant:

Singapore Management University

2019-2020 Economics of Globalization, Prof. Bei Hong

2017-2019 Intermediate Macroeconomics, Prof. Juliana Yu Sun

2017 International Macroeconomics (PhD level), Prof. Juliana Yu Sun

2016 International Macroeconomics (UG level), Prof. Ruanjai Suwantaradon

University of British Columbia

2015 Economic Analysis of Law, Prof. Robert Gateman

Professional Experience Short-term Consultant, Transport Global Expertise and Knowledge Unit, World Bank,

2020.07-2020.10 (Providing statistical analysis on the construction of Port Efficiency Index)

Seminar Presentation

IAER Research Seminar, Dongbei University of Economics and Finance, 2020.9

Singapore Management University Research Seminar, 2018

Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships: SMU Presidential Doctoral Fellowship for Interdisciplinary Research, 2015-2019

Ph.D. Full Scholarship, Singapore Management University, 2015-2020

UBC International Student Tuition Award, 2014-2015

Publications: Limit Theory for Mildly Integrated Process with Intercept, Economics Letters, Volume 163, February

2018, Pages 98–101

Working Papers:

“Testing Predictability in the Presence of Level Shifts” (Job Market Paper, joint with Peter C.B.Phillips)

Abstract: This paper explores the impact of level shifts on inference concerning predictability. The limit

distribution of the least-squares-based t-statistic that is commonly used for testing predictability is shown

to depend on the magnitude of the shifts as well as the degree of persistence in the predictors. The usual

t-statistic has a standard limiting normal distribution only when the predictors are stationary. Asymptotic

theory for instrumental-variable-based tests is derived and shown to be non-standard unless all shifts in

the predicted variable shrink to zero fast enough. The results point to the risks of spurious outcomes in

predictability testing when level shifts are present and ignored. To mitigate this weakness in existing tests,

a sample-splitting procedure is proposed for inference, which is shown to work well in simulations. Some

finite sample issues introduced by moderate breaks are discussed. Empirical applications of the new

procedures are implemented in predicting monthly and quarterly absolute US stock returns and quarterly

growth in a US house price index.

“Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models based on Generalized Fisher Transformation” (joint with Jun Yu and Han Chen)

Abstract: Modeling multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) faces a few challenges when both variances

and covariances are time-varying. The main challenges come from the assurance of positive definiteness

of the variance-covariance matrix and the statistical analysis of MSV models. In this paper, we introduce

a new MSV model which is based on the generalized Fisher transformation of Archakov and Hansen

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(2018a). This specification is highly flexible such that driving factors of volatilities and correlations are

separated. A Particle Gibbs Ancestor Sampling (PGAS) method is proposed to conduct Bayesian analysis

of the model. The method facilitates the Bayesian model comparison. The MSV model can be extended

to include realized measures. Simulation studies show that the proposed method works well for the MSV

model. Empirical studies based on exchange-rate and equity returns suggest that the proposed MSV model

provides superior in-sample and out-of-sample performance over alternative specifications.

“Robust Joint Test for Predictability and Structural Break” (under review)

Abstract: This article is concerned with the joint test of predictability and stability. Under the null

hypothesis, we assume that potential predictors exhibit no predictability and meanwhile no structural break

occurs. We first show that the recently proposed IVX estimator provides robust inference for the structural

break in nonstationary predictive regressions, while least squares (LS) estimator suffers huge size

distortion. Based on this finding, we consider a new test combining IVX with the sup-Wald statistic. The

limiting distribution of the test statistic is derived and shown to vary with predictors' persistence level.

Though the test statistic is non-pivotal under (near-)integration, simulation results suggest that using

critical values of the pivotal distribution derived under (mild-)stationarity delivers satisfactory finite

sample inference under various settings. An application to the predictability of US stock returns highlights

the usefulness of the new test.

Work in Progress:

“MSV-GFT Model with Leverage Effect and Heavy-tailed Errors” (joint with Han Chen and Jun Yu)

We consider an extension of flexible multivariate stochastic volatility model based on generalized Fisher

transformation by incorporating the leverage effect and heavy-tailed error distribution. A particle-filter-

based Gibbs sampling algorithm is adopted for inference. Simulation results indicate that our algorithm

performs well when a small number of particles are used. An empirical study on three stock indices is

provided. In summary, we find strong evidence of the leverage effect as well as heavy tails in the error.

Computer Skills: MATLAB, R, LaTeX, Stata, EViews

Languages: Chinese (Native), English (Fluent)

Qualifications: CFA (passed level II), FRM (passed both parts)

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JI FENG

School of Economics, Singapore Management University Email address: [email protected]

Contact Information

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore

Cell: +65 86516980

Personal Information: Date of Birth: 1991/04/13

Sex: Male

Citizenship: Chinese

Undergraduate Studies:

Bachelor of Science, Applied Mathematics, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), 2013

Masters Level Studies: Master of Economics, Quantitative Economics, Huazhong University of Science and

Technology, 2016

Graduate Studies:

Singapore Management University, 2016 to present

Thesis Title: Essays on Panel and Factor Models

Expected Completion Date: June, 2021

Thesis Committee and References:

Liangjun Su (advisor) Sainan Jin Lee Kong Chian Professor of Economics

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903

Phone: +65 68280386

Email: [email protected]

Professor of Economics

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903

Phone: +65 68280431

Email: [email protected]

Yichong Zhang Jun Tu Assistant Professor of Economics

Lee Kong Chian Fellow

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Associate Professor of Finance

Lee Kong Chian School of Business

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903

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Singapore 178903

Phone: +65 68280881

Email: [email protected]

Phone: +65 68280764

Email: [email protected]

Teaching and Research Fields:

Primary fields: Econometric theory

Secondary fields: Panel Data Models, Financial econometrics, Applied econometrics

Teaching Experience:

Teaching Assistant, School of Economics, Singapore Management University

2016-2017: Introductory Economics (Prof. Bei Hong)

2017-2019: Advanced Econometrics I (Prof. Liangjun Su)

2020-2021: Introductory Statistics (Prof. Zhengxiao Wu)

Research Experience: March 2020-June 2020 Research Assistant, School of Economics, Singapore Management University

(Prof. Liangjun Su)

Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships: Presidential Doctoral Fellowship, Singapore Management University, 2016-2020

Research Papers:

“Testing for Idiosyncratic Bubbles in the Presence of Nonstationary or Mildly Explosive Factors

in Panel Data Models” (Job Market Paper, with Liangjun Su)

Abstract: Identifying the sources of bubbles is of practical interest economic and financial analyses. This

paper devises a simple but effective procedure to test bubbles in the idiosyncratic components in the

presence of nonstationary or mildly explosive factors in common components in a large dimensional panel

data model. We establish the limiting null distribution and the asymptotic local power property of our test.

In particular, the asymptotic local power benefits from the pull of the cross-section units together to detect

possible explosive behavior of bubbles in the idiosyncratic component. We also propose a wild bootstrap

procedure to improve the finite sample performance of our test Monte Carlos simulations suggest the

bootstrap-based test has the desired size and decent power. As an illustrative example, we consider testing

the bubbles in the idiosyncratic components of cryptocurrency prices.

“Estimation and Specification Tests of Two-Way Random Coefficient Panel Data Models with

Fixed Effects” with Liangjun Su

Abstract: Conventional random coefficients panel data models only assume random coefficients in time

or individual dimension, which appears somewhat restrictive in practice. This paper introduces a two-way

random coefficients panel model with both time- and individual-specific fixed effects to accommodate the

heterogeneity and time-varyingness of the slope simultaneously. We eliminate fixed effects by within-

group transformations and then obtain the estimators of parameters of interest. We establish the limiting

distributions of the estimators in the standard large N and large T framework. Consistent tests then are

constructed to examine the validity of the specification of random coefficients panel data models. We

establish the null distribution, the asymptotic local power property, and the consistency of our tests. To

deal with the downward size distortion of tests, we employ two bootstrap schemes to resolve this problem.

We further show that established results still hold in the presence of weak cross-sectional dependence

under additional mild conditions. Extensive Monte Carlo experiments suggest the tests based on the

asymptotic critical value suffer from downward size distortions in many cases, but the bootstrap version

of the tests has proper size and good power even for relatively small samples. We also apply the proposed

tests to reveal the relationship between the unemployment rate and youth labor rate in the working-age

population using panel data covering 171 countries at most and 23 years from 1991 to 2013, and testing

results are in favor of the existence of country-specific slope heterogeneity.

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Work in Progress:

“Testing for Bubbles in Common Factors in Panel Data Models with Local to Unity Root Errors” with Liangjun Su

Computer Skills: MATLAB, Stata, LaTeX

Languages:

Chinese (native), English (fluent)

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Qiugu, He

School of Economics, Singapore Management University https://qiuguhe2016.wixsite.com/qghe

[email protected]

Contact Information

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore

Handphone/Cell: +65-90522283

Personal Information: Male, Chinese

Undergraduate Studies:

B.Eng., Software Engineering, School of Software, Central South University, 2011.

Masters Level Work: M.Eng., Software Engineering, School of Software and Microelectronics, Peking University,

2015

Graduate Studies:

Singapore Management University, 2016 to present Thesis Title: Essays on Innovation and Growth

Expected Completion Date: June 2021

Thesis Committee and References:

Jianhuan Xu (advisor) Pao-Li Chang School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903 (65) 6828-0085

[email protected]

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903 (65) 6828-0830

[email protected]

Yuan Mei School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903 (65) 6808-5212

[email protected]

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Teaching and Research Fields:

Primary fields: Macroeconomics, International Trade

Secondary fields: Industrial Organization

Teaching Experience:

Teaching certificate 2020 Certificate for graduate instructor, Center for English Communication, SMU

Teaching Assistant

2020 Macroeconomics (Undergraduate, Prof Nicolas L. Jacquet)

Macroeconomics (Undergraduate, Prof Yu Sun)

2019 MSc R/Python Coding Workshops (Master, Prof Anthony S. Tay)

2018 Intermediate Macroeconomics (Undergraduate, Prof Jianhuan Xu)

Grader

2016 Introductory Economics (Undergraduate, Prof Kong Weng Ho)

Research Experience:

2019 Research Assistant (Prof. Yuan Mei, International trade)

2018 Research Assistant (Prof. Ismail Baydur, Macroeconomics)

2017 Research Assistant (Prof. Jianhuan Xu, Macroeconomics)

2013 Research Assistant (Prof. Bo Zhao, Peking university, Macroeconomics)

Conference and Seminar Presentations:(* indicates presented by coauthors)

2020 International Trade Study Group, Singapore Management University, Singapore

2020 The Second New Structure Economics Academic Seminar, Xi'an Jiaotong University, China

2017 Summer Workshop of Economic Theory, Tokyo, Japan*

2015 The Second Youth Economist Forum, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, China

Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships: 2016-2020 Graduate Full Scholarship (PhD Program), Ministry of Education, Singapore

Publications: “Real exchange rate, hot money and housing price” with Dong Yuan and Bo Zhao, Journal of Financial

Research (in Chinese,金融研究, CSSCI), 2016

“A Literature Review of Determinants on House Prices” with Dong Yuan and Bo Zhao, Research on

Economics and Management. (in Chinese,经济与管理研究, CSSCI), 2015

Research Papers:

“Intellectual property right enforcement, competition, and innovation : Evidence from China” (Job Market Paper)

Abstract: This paper studies how IPR (Intellectual Property Right) enforcement across China affects

aggregate innovation and welfare. By using China Judgements Database, I first document that while

competition spurs aggregate R&D and reduces firm-level R&D, strict IPR enforcement enlarges

the magnitude of the first effect and shrinks the second effect. Based on these findings, I build a

Schumpeterian growth model featuring IP infringement. From the theoretical model, I find that a

new distribution of firm size is consistent with the current literature if only intellectual property rights

are perfectly protected. I estimate the model using firm-level data from China and find that the

entry cost of a pirate manufacturer is only half of that of the innovator. Performing a counterfactual

analysis, I identify three channels that IPR enforcement impacts on welfare.

“Firm productivity and the Variety of Inputs and Outputs: Evidence from Chinese Trade Data” with Onish, Ken; Yang, Guang; Xu, Jianhuan

Abstract: This paper studies how the trade liberalization in China changes the firm productivity. We

develop a framework to estimate revenue productivity (TFPR) and real productivity (TFPQ) with multi-

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product firms. We find that the aggregate TFPR increases 30% from 2002-2007 and TFPQ increases 22%,

suggesting that the observed TFPR increase is mainly driven by real productivity change rather than the

markup change. We further decompose the change of productivity into three channels: (1) access to

foreign inputs; (2) technology upgrades; (3) resource re-allocation within the firm. We find the most

significant channel is the last one, which explains half of the aggregate productivity increase. We also find

that the SOEs and private firms significantly improve the TFPR. However, private firms TFPR increase

mainly come from the increase of TFPQ, while only 65% of the TFPR increase of SOEs can be attributed

to change of TFPQ.

Computer Skills:

Matlab, Python, Stata, MySQL, Access, Latex

Languages:

Chinese (native), English (fluent)

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LIYAO LI

School of Economics, Singapore Management University

https://liyaolee2011.wixsite.com/liyaoli

[email protected]

Contact Information

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore

Cell: +65 86721197

Personal Information

Date of birth: 02/24/1992

Gender: Female

Citizenship: Chinese

Current Position

Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Singapore Management University, 2020 – present

Undergraduate Studies

Bachelor of Science, Economics, Singapore Management University, 2015

Graduate Studies

Ph.D. in Economics, Singapore Management University, 07/2015 to 07/2019

Thesis Title: Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models with Small T

Graduation Date: January 2020

Thesis Committee and References

Zhenlin Yang (advisor)

Professor of Economics & Statistics Yiu Kuen Tse

Professor of Economics

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903

Phone: +65 68280852

Email: [email protected]

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903

Phone: +65 68280257

Email: [email protected]

Yichong Zhang

Assistant Professor of Economics

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903

Phone: +65 68280881

Email: [email protected]

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Teaching and Research Fields

Primary fields: Spatial Econometrics, Panel Data Models, Econometric Theory

Secondary fields: Urban Economics, Regional Economics

Teaching Experience

Instructor Mathematics for Economics (Undergraduate), Singapore Management University, Term1, 2020/2021

Teaching Assistant Microeconomics I (Ph.D.), Singapore Management University, AY2016/2017

Introduction to Statistical Theory (Undergraduate), Singapore Management University, AY2017/2018

Macroeconomic Analysis (Master), Singapore Management University, AY2018/2020

Economic and Society (Undergraduate), Singapore Management University, AY2019/2020

Research Experience

Research Assistant, Singapore Management University, 08/2017 – 04/2020

Conference and Seminar Presentations

China Meeting of the Econometric Society, Guangzhou, 2019

Asia Meeting of the Econometric Society, Xiamen, 2019

Singapore Management University Research Seminar, 2018

XI World Conference of the Spatial Econometrics Association, Singapore, 2017

Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships

Selected Participant of the 7th Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting on Economic Science, 2020

Presidential Doctoral Fellowship, Singapore Management University, 2018 – 2019

Ph.D. Full Scholarship, Singapore Management University, 2015 – 2019

Undergraduate Full Scholarship, Singapore Management University, 2011 – 2015

Publications

[1] Li, Liyao and Yang, Zhenlin. (2020) “Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models with Correlated

Random Effects,” Journal of Econometrics, available online

[2] Li, Liyao and Yang, Zhenlin. (2020) “Estimation of Fixed Effects Spatial Dynamic Panel Data

Models with Small T and Unknown Heteroskedasticity,” Regional Science and Urban Economics,

81, p.103520.

Working Papers

“Estimation and Inference for Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models with Interactive Fixed

Effects” with Zhenlin Yang (Job Market Paper)

Abstract: We propose an M-estimation method for estimating the spatial dynamic panel data models

with interactive fixed effects based on short panels. Unbiased estimating functions are obtained by

adjusting the concentrated conditional quasi scores, given initial values and with factor loadings being

concentrated out, to account for the effects of conditioning and concentration. The variance-covariance

(VC) matrix of the proposed M-estimators is estimated by first decomposing the vector of estimating

functions into a sum of n terms, and then finding the covariances among them. The outer product of

these n summands together with a covariance adjustment gives a consistent estimator of the VC matrix.

Consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator are established, and the consistency

of the VC matrix estimator is proved. Monte Carlo results show very good performance of the proposed

M-estimator and the VC matrix estimator. Compared with the methods available in the literature, our

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methods are much simpler and can be expected to be more efficient in point estimation and more

reliable in inference.

“Attenuation of Agglomeration Economies: Evidence from the Universe of Chinese

Manufacturing Firms” with Jing Li and Shimeng Liu (R&R for Journal of Urban Economics)

Abstract: This paper examines a complete list of twenty-nine Chinese manufacturing industries to

reveal industry-specific spatial attenuation of agglomeration economies and its interplay with the

unique presence of state-owned enterprises in China. The full-spectrum analysis also allows for

assessing the goodness of fit of various spatial decay functional forms and for systematically evaluating

the micro-foundations governing the decay patterns across industry types. We obtain three main

findings. First, agglomeration economies attenuate sharply with spatial distance in China, with large

heterogeneity in attenuation speed across ownership and industry types. Second, the spatial decay speed

is positively linked with proxies for knowledge spillovers and labour market pooling but is negatively

linked with proxies for input sharing and the share of the state sector. Last, the inverse square distance

decay function presents the best goodness of fit among the tested functional forms.

Computer Skills

Matlab, Stata, LaTex

Languages

Chinese (native), English (fluent)

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Luo Xuan

School of Economics, Singapore Management University https://luoxuan.weebly.com/

[email protected]

Contact Information:

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore

Handphone/Cell: +65 90186521

Personal Information:

Birth Year: 1990; Gender: Male; Citizenship: Chinese

Academic Employment:

Postdoctoral Research Fellow, INSEAD June 2018 – Present

Undergraduate Studies:

B.S., Material Physics, Wuhan University Sep 2008 – Oct 2008

B.S., Statistics & Mathematics, National University of Singapore Aug 2009 – June 2013

Graduate Studies:

Ph.D., Economics, Singapore Management University Aug 2013 – May 2018

Thesis Title: On International Trade and Industrial Policies

References:

Wen-Tai Hsu (advisor) Pushan Dutt School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903

+65 68280833

[email protected]

Economics & Political Science

INSEAD

1 Ayer Rajah Ave

Singapore 138676

+65 67995498

[email protected]

Lin Tian

Economics & Political Science

INSEAD

1 Ayer Rajah Ave

Singapore 138676

+65 67995109

[email protected]

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Teaching and Research Fields:

Primary fields: International Economics, Economic Geography, and Urban Economics

Secondary fields: Chinese Economy and Industrial Policies

Teaching Experience:

Instructor – SMU: Introductory Statistics (2016)

Teaching assistant – SMU: Intermediate Macroeconomics (2015), International Trade & Intermediate

Econometrics (2017), Economic Forecasting (2018)

Professional Activities:

Referee: Journal of Asian Economics

Membership: Econometric Society, Urban Economics Association

Conference and Seminar Presentations:

June 2020, Institute for Advanced Economic Research (DUFE), Dalian, China (Zoom)

Dec 2019, 2019 SMU Conference on Urban and Regional Economics, Singapore

Jun 2019, INSEAD-SMU Joint International Economics Workshop, Singapore

June 2019, 2019 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society, Xiamen, China (Session Chair)

Dec 2018, 2018 SMU Conference on Urban and Regional Economics, Singapore

Oct 2018, 2018 Meeting of the Urban Economics Association, NY, U.S.

Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships:

SMU PhD Economics Scholarship, 2013 – 2017

NUS Undergraduate Full-Ride Scholarship, 2009 – 2013

NUS Dean’s List, 2011 & 2013

Research Papers:

“Market Size, Trade, and Institution”, (Job Market Paper) with Wen-Tai Hsu

Abstract: This paper proposes a theory of market size and institution by incorporating the incomplete-

contract model in Acemoglu et al. (2007) in a general-equilibrium, open-economy environment and in a

Nash-equilibrium setting in which national planners optimize their countries’ welfare over institutional

qualities. Our theory predicts that a larger effective market size leads to a higher institutional quality, that

a status-quo country may reduce its institutional quality when other countries trade-liberalize among

themselves, and a flying geese pattern of institution. Empirically, we find that a larger effective market

size does lead to improvement in contracting institution, but it affects little of other dimensions of

institution. Quantitatively, we find that institutional improvement induced by trade liberalization from

autarky to current trade costs accounts for a sizeable portion of a country’s total welfare gains from trade.

“Foreign Direct Investment and Industrial Agglomeration: Evidence from China”, (under review)

with Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu and Lianming Zhu

Abstract: This paper studies the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on industrial agglomeration.

Using the differential effects of FDI deregulation in 2002 in China on different industries, we find that

FDI actually affects industrial agglomeration negatively. As FDI brings technological spillovers and

various agglomeration benefits, other forces must be at work to drive our empirical finding. We propose

a simple theory that FDI may discourage industrial agglomeration due to fiercer competition pressure. We

find various evidence on this competition mechanism. We also examine an alternative theory based on

spatial political competition, but find no evidence supporting it. On industrial growth, we find that FDI

deregulation is conducive, but the dispersion induced by FDI deregulation reduces the positive effect of

FDI on growth rate by 16 to 19%.

“Industrial Subsidy Policy and Capital Misallocation in China”, with Shang-Jin Wei and Jianhuan Xu

Abstract: This paper studies the Chinese industrial subsidy policy from 1998 to 2007. Our industry

equilibrium model establishes that the optimal policy should be positively correlated with input distortions

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confronted by firms. Based on this prediction, we evaluate the effectiveness of subsidy policy in China

and document three stylized facts: (1) On the firm level, conditional on firm size, the subsidy can help

correct for the capital and labor distortions over time; (2) We use the propensity score matching combined

with difference-in-differences to identify the causal effect of subsidy and find that subsidized firms

perform better in terms of value added but not revenue TFP; (3) Regions in the ‘Western Development

Program' received more subsidies compared to their east counterparts, both in the intensive margin and

extensive margin. Finally, we quantify the effect of the subsidy policy on welfare.

“The Political Economy of Land Supply: The Case of China”, with Wen-Tai Hsu and Yang Tang

Abstract: This paper develops a quantitative spatial equilibrium framework to study the political economy

of urban land supply in China. The model captures at least three aspects of political economy in China:

(1) the competition for promotion among different local government leaders; (2) the rent-seeking motives

of local government leaders; (3) the fact that economic performance (i.e., GDP) is the main key

performance indicators in the race for promotion. We also characterize different welfare benchmark for

comparison. In this economy, land is useful for both residential need and production, and the fact that

land/housing is a necessity creates an incentive for government officials to restrict land supply via the

rent-seeking channel. The competition channels encourage land supply. Our results show that the

equilibrium welfare is close to the welfare benchmarks because political competition among different

cities outweigh the rent-seeking motives. When labor is immobile and hence the political competition

channel is shut down, welfare worsens dramatically.

Selected Work-in-Progress:

“The Rise of Chinese Exports: Knowledge Spillovers Within and Across Industry Boundaries”, with

Pushan Dutt and Lin Tian

Abstract: This paper studies how exporters' learning on the firm-product-destination-year level shapes

export dynamics. We present a model of Bayesian learning in which firms infer time-varying demand

shifter though spillovers, measured by cumulative exports, within its own other products or across peers

either in the same city or the same industry. Using China's Customs Data for all exporters from 2000 to

2006, we find that both the effect of within-firm learning spillovers and the effect of the same-city-same-

sector learning spillovers are positive and help boost current exports. The results are robust when we

control for the demand shocks, supply shocks and trade costs, or when we focus on subsamples such as

incumbents, non-processing or non-trading firms. We also analyze the learning heterogeneity along

several dimensions.

“Specialization Patterns of Exporters: Evidence from China”, with Pushan Dutt and Lin Tian

Computer Skills:

MATLAB, Stata, R, SPSS, Eviews, Python

Languages:

Chinese (native), English (fluent)

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ROHAN RAY

School of Economics, Singapore Management University https://sites.google.com/view/rohanray

[email protected]

Contact Information

School of Economics

Singapore Management University 90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore

Mobile: +6591720527

Personal Information

Date of Birth: 19th August, 1990

Sex: Male

Graduate Studies: PhD in Economics, Department of Economics, Singapore Management University, 2016-

Thesis Title: Essays on Economic Development and Environmental Sustainability

Expected Completion Date: June, 2021

Masters Studies:

MA in Economics, Department of Economics, New York University, 2014-2016

MSc in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Calcutta, 2012-2014

Undergraduate Studies:

BSc in Economics, Department of Economics, St Xavier’s College, Kolkata, 2009-2012

Thesis Committee and References:

Professor Tomoki Fujii (advisor) Professor Christine Ho

School of Economics School of Economics

Singapore Management University Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road 90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903 Singapore 178903

Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

Professor Seonghoon Kim Professor Abu S. Shonchoy

School of Economics School of International and Public Affairs

Singapore Management University Florida International University

90 Stamford Road 11200 SW 8th St, Miami

Singapore 178903 FL 33199, United States of America

Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

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Teaching and Research Fields:

Primary fields: Development Economics

Secondary fields: Economics of Education, Health Economics, Environmental Sustainability

Teaching Experience:

Graduate Instructor: Economics of Development in Asia, School of Economics, Singapore Management

University, 2020-2021 Term 1

Graduate Instructor: Economics of Development in Asia, School of Economics, Singapore Management

University, 2019-2020 Term 2

Teaching Assistant: Microeconomic Analysis (graduate level), School of Economics, Singapore

Management University, 2019-2020 Term 1

Teaching Assistant: Microeconomic Analysis (graduate level), School of Economics, Singapore

Management University, 2018-2019 Term 1

Teaching Assistant: Economics of Development in Asia, School of Economics, Singapore Management

University, 2017-2018 Term 1

Teaching Assistant: Economics of Development, School of Economics, New York University, 2015-

2016 Term 1

Research Experience:

Consultant in Economic Affairs, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations

(ICRIER), 2016

Intern in Economic Affairs, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the

Pacific (United Nations ESCAP), 2015

Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships: Doctoral Scholarship, Singapore Management University, 2016-2020

Graduate Instructor Fellowship, Singapore Management University, 2019-2020

Academic Award for Excellence in Macroeconomics, New York University, 2015

Conference and Seminar Presentations:

2020 Seminar Series, School of Economics, Singapore Management University

2019 Conference on Randomized Controlled Trials at Monash Business School, Melbourne

2018 Annual London Business Research Conference at Imperial College, London

Publications: Emerging Issues in India–Pakistan Trade: An Introduction in India-Pakistan Trade Normalization

(pp. 1-14), 2017. Springer, Singapore. (with Nisha Taneja, Isha Dayal, and Samridhi Bimal)

Research Papers:

Conditional Cash Transfer, Loss Framing, and SMS Nudges: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment

in Bangladesh (with Tomoki Fujii, Christine Ho, and Abu Shonchoy) – Job Market Paper

Abstract: Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) have become one of the most common policy interventions to

increase school attendance, but the cost-effectiveness of such interventions has not attracted the attention it

deserves. Hence, in addition to a standard CCT implementation, we experimentally study two potential ways

to improve the cost-effectiveness of school attendance interventions: (i) SMS information nudges and (ii)

loss framing in CCTs. The former provides school attendance information to parents and the latter exploits the

endowment effect. Consistent with the existing literature, CCT intervention significantly increases school

attendance. We also find that the loss framing marginally increases attendance over and above the conventional

gain framing CCT treatment. The SMS treatment only has a modest impact on school attendance but the

overall cost of treatment is low. The marginal impact of cash transfer amount has an inverted-U shaped

relationship to the level of cash transfer, indicating that the intensive margin matters. We also find evidence

of positive peer group effect in attendance. These results thus indicate that there is potential room for

improving the cost-effectiveness of school attendance interventions.

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Alcohol Consumption and Intimate Partner Violence: Causal Evidence from India

Abstract: A study by the World Health Organization shows that about 35 percent of women in the world

have been victims of physical or sexual intimate partner violence in their lifetime. In this paper, I study the

causal impact of alcohol consumption on incidence of intimate partner violence in the Indian context. Using an

overidentified model where I exploit the spatial variation in alcohol ban and minimum legal drinking age across

states to instrument for the husband's alcohol consumption, I find that alcohol consumption increases incidence

of less severe physical violence by 55 percentage points and severe physical violence by 23.6 percentage points,

and also has negative consequences on the freedom of movement and decision making powers of the female

within the household. I show that the results are not driven by worse gender attitudes in states where

alcohol is allowed. A heterogeneity analysis reveals that there is a vicious cycle of intimate partner violence

whereby individuals who are the most vulnerable in terms of having previous exposure to domestic abuse

are often the victims. Finally, there is weak evidence of underreporting of domestic abuse and the observed

results might be a lower bound estimate of the true impact of alcohol consumption on intimate partner violence.

Singapore as a Sustainable City: Past, present and the future (with Tomoki Fujii)

Abstract: This paper outlines Singapore’s major sustainability challenges and its policy response in the

areas of land use, transportation, waste management, water, and energy. We review the current and past

Concept Plans from the perspective of sustainable land use and provide an overview of transportation policy

in Singapore. We also examine Singapore’s policies to manage increasing wastes and review the four tap

water management plan. Finally, we look at various initiatives by the government for sustainable use of

energy. While Singapore has been successful in many ways in transforming itself into one of the most

prosperous and sustainable cities in the world, there remain challenges to make the city even cleaner and

greener for a better future. We discuss the opportunities that new technologies will bring about and the role

that Singapore can play in building a sustainable city.

Working Papers:

National Development Banks and Sustainable Infrastructure in South Asia. GEGI Working Paper 003, (2016)

(with Nagesh Kumar and Pradeep Keshari)

Ongoing Work:

Do Government Benefits Stick to the Intended Beneficiary: Evidence from the Mid Day Meal Scheme in India

(with Arpita Khanna)

Conditional Cash Transfer, SMS, and Social Network Dynamics (with Tomoki Fujii, Christine Ho, and

Abu Shonchoy)

Other Positions of Responsibility

Supervised a student from National University of Singapore High School of Mathematics and Science on his

research paper “Singapore Towards a Zero Waste Nation: Practices and Challenges”

Postgraduate Representative of the Library Advisory Committee: Singapore Management University

Computer Skills

STATA, MATLAB, LaTeX

Languages

English (fluent), Bengali (native), Hindi (proficient)

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Kefang YAO

School of Economics, Singapore Management University

https://kefangyao.wixsite.com/kfyao [email protected]

Contact Information

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore

Handphone/Cell: +65-81348767

Personal Information: May 14, 1992, Female

Ningbo, China

Undergraduate Studies:

Bachelor of Management, International Business (minor in English), School of Economics,

Huazhong University of Science and Technology, China, 2014

Masters Level Work: Master of Science, Agricultural and Resources Economics, Department of Agricultural and

Resources Economics, University of California, Davis, United States, 2015

Graduate Studies:

Singapore Management University, 2016-2021(expected) Thesis Title: “Three Essays on Preferential Trade Agreement and Tariff Policies”

Expected Completion Date: June, 2021

Thesis Committee and References:

Pao-Li CHANG (advisor) Yuan MEI School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903

<+65-68280830> <[email protected]>

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903

<+65-68285212> <[email protected]>

Amanda JAKOBSSON School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903

<+65-68285467><[email protected]>

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Teaching and Research Fields:

Primary fields: International Trade

Secondary fields: Chinese Economy, Development Economics

Teaching Experience: Teaching Assistant, Singapore Management University:

Econ 113: Economics of Globalization (Undergraduate), Jan 2020- Apr 2020 & Aug 2020- present

Econ 724: International Trade (Ph.D.), Aug 2018- Dec 2018; Aug 2019- Dec 2019 & Aug 2020- present

MGMT615: Current Issues in the Global Economy (MBA), May 2020-July 2020

Econ 118: Economic Development (Undergraduate), Jan 2018-Apr 2018

Grader, Singapore Management University:

Econ 217: Macroeconomics of Income Distribution (Undergraduate), Aug 2016-Nov 2016

Reader, University of California, Davis:

ARE 142: Personal Finance (Undergraduate), Mar 2015-June 2015

Research Experience: Research Assistant, Lien Center for Social Innovation (LSCI-SMU): “Philanthropy in China, India and Indonesia”, with Ford Foundation, Jun 2019-Feb 2020

“The Hunger Report: An In-Depth Look at Food Insecurity in Singapore”, with Food Bank Singapore,

Mar 2020-May 2020

Intern in Economic Affairs, Trade Policy Analysis Section, Trade and Investment Division (TID), United

Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN-ESCAP):

“The Impacts of Trade Facilitation on the Extensive Margins of Trade in Asia-the Pacific Region”, with

Dr. Witada Anukoonwattaka, Sep 2015-Feb 2016

Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships:

Presidential Doctoral Fellowship, Singapore Management University, 2020-2021

Ph.D. Scholarship, Singapore Management University, 2016-2020

Academic Scholarship, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 2011-2013

Working Papers:

“The Effects of US-China Trade War on Chinese Imports and Welfare”, with Pao-Li CHANG and

Fan ZHENG, Job Market Paper

Abstract:

In this paper, we follow the micro-to-macro approach of Fajgelbaum et al. (2020) and analyse the impacts

of the trade war for the Chinese economy. We use highly disaggregated trade and tariff data in monthly

frequency to identify the demand/supply elasticities of Chinese imports/exports, combined with a general-

equilibrium model for the Chinese economy (that takes into account input-output linkages, and regional

heterogeneity in employment and sector specialization) to quantify the partial and general equilibrium

effects of the tariff war at the product/sector/region/aggregate level. This complements the studies that

focus on the ex post micro-level response of the U.S. economy by Amiti, Redding and Weinstein (2019),

Fajgelbaum et al. (2020), and Cavallo et al. (2020).

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“The GATT/WTO Welfare Effects: 1950-2015” (under revision, with Pao-Li CHANG and Wei JIN)

Abstract:

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the welfare impact of GATT/WTO in its entire history

of 1950-2015 for 180 countries. The analysis embeds nonparametric matching methods in structural

quantitative simulations. The results indicate substantial (but highly heterogeneous) welfare gains created

by GATT/WTO at the global level and across more than six decades of its history. An extensive set of

robustness checks with respect to model specifications, parameter values, and matching estimations are

provided. We also characterize the effects of GATT/WTO on global income disparity, its interaction with

preferential trade agreements, and the effects of China's WTO entry. Currently, we are working on the

extension of introducing the role of tariff barriers into the theoretical model. We redo the estimation and

counterfactual analysis with the updated trade dataset and make minor modifications in aggregating the

matching effect. In this round of revision, we will discuss the new results and attempt to translate them

into meaningful policy insights.

Research in Progress:

“The Depth of Preferential Trade Agreements”, with Pao-Li CHANG and Wei JIN

Abstract:

Booming since 1990s, Preferential Trade Agreements have extended their traditional focus of tariff

reduction to cover deeper policy areas, such as investment, competition, movement of capital and

intellectual property rights. This paper uses a recently released dataset on the content of preferential trade

agreements, to quantify impacts of the horizontal depth of trade agreements on country's trade flows and

welfare within the time period of 1980-2015. The results indicate that with the categorization of

provisions, deeper agreements lead to more prominent trade growth, as well as larger welfare increase.

Furthermore, it implies that the depth of tradeagreements also matter for the potential complementarity

between the regional and multilateral

liberalization systems.

“Decomposing the Welfare Effects of Deep Trade Agreements: A Synthetic Control Method” , with

Pao-Li CHANG

Abstract:

In this paper we employ the synthetic control method to estimate the trade effect that there would have

been between the country and its trading partners if they have signed any preferential trade agreement

(PTA). We relate this (hypothetical) PTA effect on trade flows between the PTA members to the horizontal

depth of agreements. Then built on the Anderson and van Wincoop (2003)'s set-up, we further decompose

and quantify the welfare effects of PTA deep integration based on the content of agreements within the

time period of 1988-2015, controlling for the effects of tariff barriers. The results indicate that the

agreement which presented in a deeper from of integration lead to a larger trade growth and welfare

improvement.

Computer Skills:

Stata, MATLAB, EViews, NVivo, GAMS, LaTeX, MS Office

Languages:

Mandarin (Native), English (Fluent), French (Basic)


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