The 2nd Meeting of the Working Group for Analysis of Energy Saving Potential in East

Asia Region11-12 September 2007

Energy Demand Projection Result

YANAGISAWA AkiraThe Energy Data and Modelling Center

The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

2

Country and Code

Country Code

Country Code

Australia

AUS Lao PDR LAO

Brunei BRN Malaysia MYS

Cambodia

KHM

Myanmar MMR

China CHN New Zealand

NZL

India IND Philippines PHL

Indonesia

IDN Singapore SGP

Japan JPN Thailand THA

Korea KOR Viet Nam VNM

3

Total Primary Energy Supply

1,054

1,636

3,125

6,973

5,399

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

BAU APS

1980 1990 2005 2030

Tota

l Prim

ary

Ener

gy S

uppl

y (M

toe)

-1,574 Mtoe, -23%

4

Primary Energy Supply by Energies

2,0361,801

845718

1,570

2,928

1,034

2,344

292

976

229

725

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

'05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30

Coal Oil Natural Gas Others

Prim

ary

Ener

gy S

uppl

y by

Ene

rgie

s (M

toe)

APSBAU-30%

-23%

-892 Mtoe

-544 Mtoe

5

Total Primary Energy Supply by Countries

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500BA

UAP

S

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

'05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30

AUS BRN KHM CHN IND IDN JPN KOR LAO MYS MMR NZL PHL SGP THA VNM

Tota

l Prim

ary

Ener

gy S

uppl

y (M

toe)

BAUAPS

6

Energy Intensity (TPES/GDP)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900BA

UAP

S

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

'05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30

AUS BRN KHM CHN IND IDN JPN KOR LAO MYS MMR NZL PHL SGP THA VNM

Tota

l Prim

ary

Ener

gy S

uppl

y / G

DP

(toe/

Milli

on U

SD) BAU

APS

7

Energy Intensity Improvement (APS against BAU)

-7%

-27% -27%

-31%

-8%

-16%

-12%

-20%

-13%

-10%

-23%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%AUS BRN KHM CHN IND IDN JPN KOR LAO MYS MMR NZL PHL SGP THA VNM Total

8

Total Final Energy Consumption

Australia is not included.

697

1,051

1,838

4,227

3,447

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

BAU APS

1980 1990 2005 2030

Tota

l Fin

al E

nerg

y C

onsu

mpt

ion

(Mto

e)

-779 Mtoe, -18%

9

Total Final Energy Consumption by Sectors

1,453

823

1,034

138

908

1,689

370

1,093

480

1,282

80162

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

'05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30

Industry Transport Others Non-Energy

Fina

l Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

n by

Sec

tors

(Mto

e)

APSBAU

-14%

-25%

-19%

Australia is not included.

10

Total Final Energy Consumption by Countries

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

BAU

APS

'05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30

AUS BRN KHM CHN IND IDN JPN KOR LAO MYS MMR NZL PHL SGP THA VNM

Tota

l Fin

al E

nerg

y C

onsu

mpt

ion

(Mto

e)

BAUAPS

11

Power Generation

1,2092,191

5,476

13,902

11,204

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

BAU APS

1980 1990 2005 2030

Pow

er G

ener

atio

n (T

Wh)

-2,699 TWh, -19%

12

CO2 Emission

913

1,387

2,651

5,440

3,954

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

BAU APS

1980 1990 2005 2030

CO

2 Em

issio

n (M

t-C)

-1,486 Mt-C, -27%

13

TPES Decomposition Analysis

TPES = POP * (GDP/POP) * (TPES/GDP)

TPES POP * (GDP/POP) * (TPES/GDP)+ POP * (GDP/POP) * (TPES/GDP)+ POP * (GDP/POP) * (TPES/GDP)

= Population Factor+ GDP per Capita Factor+ Energy Intensity Factor

14

TPES Decomposition Analysis

196

701 701535

3,894 3,894

-8

277

-590

-1,162

336 582

1,489

3,848

1,489

2,274

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

BAU APS

1980-1990 1990-2005 2005-2030

Tota

l Prim

ary

Ener

gy S

uppl

y (M

toe)

Population FactorGDP per Capita FactorEnergy Intensity FactorTotal Change

15

CO2 Decomposition Analysis

CO2 = POP * (GDP/POP) * (TPES/GDP) * (CO2/TPES)

CO2 POP * (GDP/POP) * (TPES/GDP) * (CO2/TPES)+ POP * (GDP/POP) * (TPES/GDP) * (CO2/TPES)+ POP * (GDP/POP) * (TPES/GDP) * (CO2/TPES)+ POP * (GDP/POP) * (TPES/GDP) * (CO2/TPES)

= Population Factor+ GDP per Capita Factor+ Energy Intensity Factor+ Carbon Intensity Factor

16

CO2 Decomposition Analysis

170

595 595291

454

3,303 3,303

-7

235

-500

-986

-20

1

-213 -362

474

1,264

2,789

1,303

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

BAU APS

1980-1990 1990-2005 2005-2030

CO

2 Em

issio

n (M

t-C)

Population FactorGDP per Capita FactorEnergy Intensity FactorCarbon IntensityTotal Change

17

Implication (1)

• In the APS, energy conservation of 1,570 Mtoe, or 23% will be expected in the region.– This amount will be 9% of world energy

consumption in 2030.– China, India, Indonesia, Korea and Japan have

much potential of energy conservation.

• Faster improvement of intensity will be expected in the Non-OECD countries than the OECD countries.– Non-OECD Countries: -3.6%/year in the APS.– OECD Countries: -1.5%/year in the APS.

18

Implication (2)

• In the APS, oil consumption will be reduced by 540 Mtoe from the BAU.– Contribution of energy conservation in

transportation is 310 Mtoe, more than half.– The oil cost will be saved by about $260 billion USD

a year.

• In the APS, electricity generation will be reduced by 2,700 TWh, or 19% from the BAU.

• Thermal efficiency will be improved from 39% in the BAU to 46% in the APS.– In term of input, 820 Mtoe of fossil fuel will be

conserved.

19

Implication (3)

• In the APS, CO2 emission will be reduced by 1,490 Mt-C, or 27% from the BAU.– This amount will be 12% of world CO2 emission in

2030.

• Energy conservation in the region will lead reduction of CO2 emission with high efficiency.– The energy conservation in the region, which will

be equal to 9% of world energy consumption, will bring CO2 reduction of 12% of the global emission.

20

Questions and Requests (1)

• General– Should power generation by non fossil

fuel be assumed as amount, or as shares of total power generation?

– Request for thermal efficiency data in the APS.

– Request for check of energy conservation balance among industry, transportation and other sector.

21

Questions and Requests (2)

• Australia– Request for final energy consumption data,

etc.• Data submission has been agreed already.

• China– Request for assumptions.

• Simulation is referring “China Medium and Long Term Energy Conservation Plan” this time.

• The target “20% reduction from 2006 to 2010 at 2.2 percent per annum and at 3% per annum to 2020.” was ignored because of inconsistency.

– Request for power generation mixture data.

22

Questions and Requests (3)

• India– Request for check of GDP growth rate.

• Ex. Total growth is 8% from 2020 to 2030. Industry, services and agriculture are 7.51%, 7.75% and 4.36% respectively.

• Indonesia– Request for check of GDP growth rate.

• Same situation with India.

– Does “Vehicle stock” refer “Passenger car”, “Bus” and “Truck”? Does it include something others?

– Request for power generation mixture and electricity trade (from Malaysia?) data in 2030.

23

Questions and Requests (4)

• Korea– Does “Vehicle stock” refer only “Passenger

car”?

• Malaysia– Request for submission of assumption.

• Philippines– Request for data after 2014.– Request for power generation mixture data.

• Singapore– Request for submission of assumption.

24

Questions and Requests (5)

• Thailand– Request for data after 2020.– Is the GDP base year 1988?