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Year 10
Global Studies
GLOBAL CONFLICTS
AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ
U.S invasion of AfghanistanCauses of conflict U.S response to September 11 terrorist attacks on
New York and Washington Taliban’s refusal to hand over bin-Laden al Qaeda training camps established in Afghanistan
during period of Taliban rule – 1996-2001 S11 culmination of a series of terrorist attacks against
U.S1998 – bombing of embassies in Kenya/Tanzania2000 – USS Cole2001 – September 11
Afghanistan – nature of the conflict-phase 1 Began as a combination of conventional warfare
between states and civil /ethnic conflict U.S use of air power to bomb Taliban positions &
al Qaeda camps, combined with extensive use of Afghan ‘Northern Alliance’ ground forces
- U.N authorised use of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) under NATO leadership to support U.S forces
Rapid capture of cities by U.S/Northern Alliance -removal of Taliban regime from power
Afghanistan – ethnic make up
Pashtun regions(Taliban )
Northern Aliance groups
Changing nature of Afghan conflict Re-grouping of Taliban in rural areas in the
predominantly Pashtun south and east
Taliban insurgency against Afghan government and U.S/ISAF forces - terrorist campaign against Afghan civilians co-operating with Afghan government/U.S/ISAF forces
Insurgency – armed rebellion against an established system of government within a state
Terrorism – use of violence against civilians aimed at instilling fear to achieve a political goal
Taliban insurgency- key factorsGeography
Taliban insurgency- key factorsU.S. use of military power- Bombing raids targeting Taliban result in civilian casualties- Focus on capturing/killing Taliban rather than protecting
civilians against Taliban violence & intimidation- Civilian casualties fuel ‘accidental guerilla’ syndrome (Kilcullen)
Afghan villagers bury their dead- 6 women, 2 children following U.S bombing raid aimed at Taliban- Feb. 2009
Taliban insurgency-key factors• ‘Accidental guerilla syndrome’ ‘Most of the adversaries Western powers have
been fighting since 9/11 are in fact accidental guerillas: people who fight us not because they hate the West and seek our overthrow but because we have invaded their space to deal with a small extremist element…They fight us not because they seek our destruction but because they believe we seek theirs.’
David Kilcullen – The Accidental Guerilla
Taliban Insurgency – key factorsIneffective and corrupt government- Karzai elected President 2004, 2009- Parliamentary elections 2005, 2010- Widespread corruption and ineffectiveness
together with tradition of local tribal governance = lack of legitimacy
President Hamid KarzaiAfghan elections
Evaluation – extent & limitations of U.S powerU.S objectives outcomes
-Removal of Taliban from power
-Capture/kill bin Laden, al Qaeda leaders
-Destruction of al- Qaeda training camps
-Establishment of democracy in Afghanistan
Taliban removed from power but re-grouped – ongoing insurgency2010 - ‘troop surge’ and shift in tactics to focus on protection of Afghan population- too early to judge if this will succeed but some promising early signs
Dispersal/capture/killing of some key al Qaeda figures but fail to find bin Laden or Zawahiri (bin-Laden’s ‘deputy’)
Presidential and parliamentary elections held but government remains weak and ineffectual outside the capital Kabul
Afghan government/President lack legitimacy
U.S invasion & occupation of IraqCausesIraq’s alleged possession of biological and
chemical weapons – attempts to acquire nuclear weapons
Iraq in breach of UNSC Resolution 1441 requiring return of U.N weapons inspectors
Alleged links with al qaeda – fears of passing on Weapons Mass Destruction (WMD)
Neo-Conserative ideology – belief U.S should use its power to spread liberal-democratic values
Influence of neo-conservative ideology in Bush Administration
-‘we need to strengthen ties with democratic allies and challenge regimes hostile to our interests and values’
- ‘we need to accept responsibility for America’s unique role in preserving and extending an international order friendly to our security, prosperity and principles’Statement of principles – Project for New American Century
Sunni Arab
Shi’a Arab
Sunni Kurd
Sunni/Shi’a Arab
Sunni Arab/Kurds
Changing nature of the conflict2003 –regime changeOverwhelming U.S military power in conventional
warfare against a state-removal of Saddam’s Baathist regime from power
2004 – 2007Sunni and Shi’a insurgenciesSunni/Shi’a civil conflict al Qaeda in Iraq – (no link prior to U.S invasion)2007 – 2010Ongoing insurgent and terrorist activity but ‘troop
surge’ & changed tactics=improved security
Armed opposition to U.S occupationSunni insurgents- Former high ranking Baath Party members- Remnants of Iraqi armed forces –Baath loyalists- Iraqis with grievances against U.S occupation
(accidental guerillas)Shi’a insurgents- Militia groups who aimed to impose Sharia law in
Shi’a dominated southern Iraq al Qaeda in Iraq- foreign fighters from other Arab states
Factors in the insurgenciesU.S decisions to disband Iraqi army and dismissal
from jobs of all Baath Party members
Iraq placed under rule of Coalition Provisional Authority 2003 – June 2004 – loss of sovereignty
Human rights abuses by U.S – Abu Ghraib prison
Use of mass arrests by U.S alienates Iraqis
Lack of troop numbers 2003-2007
Sectarian civil conflict2004-2007Attacks by Sunni insurgents and al Qaeda in
Iraq against Shi’a civilians, provoking response from Shi’a militia groups
Causes – Sunni fear of Shi’a domination- Creation of civil conflict makes U.S occupation
more difficult 2007 – present- Sunni tribal groups turn against al Qaeda- U.S ‘troop surge’ – improved security
Iraqi civilian deaths in civil conflict
Deaths per day from bombings Deaths per day from shootings
Source: iraqbodycount.com.org
• U.S/coalition forces
Sunni insurgents
al Qaeda in Iraq
Shi’a insurgents
Shi’a civilians
Conflict in Iraq
Sunni Arabtribal groups*
* Sunni tribal groups turn against al Qaeda from 2007
Extent and limitations of U.S powerTo what extent has the U.S succeeded in Iraq?
Extent of U.S power Limitations
Military powerRapid overthrow of Baathist regime shows overwhelming U.S military power in conventional conflict against a state
Diplomatic powerCapacity to put together a coalition of states to support Iraq invasion without U.N authorisation (though many = small, weak states)
Economic power-Able to sustain forces in Iraq (and Afghanistan) despite enormous economic costs of the conflict
Military power-Shows limits of U.S military power in countering insurgencies/terrorism-Lacks resources to effectively fight two wars at once over long period- Sensitivity to casualties led to use of tactics that fuelled the insurgencies
Diplomatic power- No U.N authorisation for invasion- Democracy established in Iraq but government weak and ineffectual -A number of states have withdrawn from the coalition (including Australia)
Economic power- Cost of war in Iraq (and Afghanistan) major factor in U.S debt – also a factor in its decision to withdraw by end of 2011