YEAR 11 SENIOR GEOGRAPHY PROJECT

OPTIONS FOR A SECOND SYDNEY AIRPORT

BY SIONED VAUGHAN

10 AUGUST 2012

TEACHER: MS. LAIDLER

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Table of Contents

List of Photographs and Figures Pg 3

Aims and Hypotheses Pg 4

Methodology Pg 5

Research Findings Pg 6

Aim 1 Pg 7

Aim 2 Pg 13

Aim 3 Pg 16

Aim 4 Pg 22

Conclusions Pg 23

Evaluation Pg 24

Bibliography Pg 25

Acknowledgements Pg 26

Appendices Pg 27

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List of Photographs and Figures

PhotographsPhotograph 1 - Photo of part of the Commonwealth land at Badgerys Creek where the airport would be built, Source: Sioned Vaughan, 2012 Pg 13

Photograph 2 - a farmstead, representative of many of the places in Badgerys Creek. People from as far out as Bondi stable their horses here and come out to ride them. Source: Sioned Vaughan, 2012 Pg 14

Photograph 3 - Petition against an airport in Wilton; kept in the local petrol station, Source: Sioned Vaughan, 2012 Pg 18

Photograph 4 - “No Airport In Wilton” sign, put up in a shop window. 3 out of 5 shops along Almond St displayed this sign. Source: Sioned Vaughan, 2012 Pg 19

Photograph 5 - Newly built houses in Wilton, Source: Sioned Vaughan, 2012 Pg 20

Photograph 6 - A very large, modern house in Wilton, Source: Sioned Vaughan, 2012 Pg 20

Photograph 7 - A section of the Bingara Gorge Development; a few kilometres from Wilton, Source: Sioned Vaughan, 2012 Pg 21

FiguresFigure 1 - Unconstrained forecast demand for flight movements in Sydney, 2012 to 2060, Source: Executive Summary - Joint Study into Aviation Capacity in the Sydney Region Pg 7

Figure 2 - Key impacts and forgone NSW direct expenditure, 2011 to 2035 as a result of an overload on the Kingsford-Smith Airport (medium scenario, undiscounted), Source: Executive Summary - Joint Study into Aviation Capacity in the Sydney Region Pg 8

Figure 3 - Foregone NSW direct expenditure as a result of overload on the Kingsford-Smith airport broken down into areas of loss, 2011 to 2035 (medium scenario, undiscounted), Source: Executive Summary - Joint Study into Aviation Capacity in the Sydney Region Pg 9

Figure 4 - Foregone NSW direct expenditure as a result of overload on the Kingsford-Smith airport broken down into areas of loss, 2011 to 2060 (medium scenario, undiscounted), Source: Executive Summary - Joint Study into Aviation Capacity in the Sydney Region Pg 9

Figure 5 - NSW and National foregone GDP due to the overload on the Kingsford-Smith airport, 2011 to 2059 (medium scenario, 2010 dollars, $ billions), Source: Executive Summary - Joint Study into Aviation Capacity in the Sydney Region Pg 10

Figure 6 - NSW and Australia employment outcomes if a second Sydney airport is not built, 2011 to 2059 (medium outcome), Source: Executive Summary - Joint Study into Aviation Capacity in the Sydney Region Pg 11

Figure 7 - BITRE and IEA forecasts of production of traditional crude from existing fields, 2008 to 2030. Source: Australian Government Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics Report 117 Pg 12

Figure 8 - Site of Proposed Second Sydney Airport at Wilton, Source: created by staff of the Wollondilly City Council, accessed through an email from organiser of the council’s No Airport campaign Pg 16

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Aims and Hypotheses

Aim 1Assess the need for a Second Sydney AirportAim 2Investigate Badgerys Creek as an option for a Second Sydney AirportAim 3Investigate Wilton as an option for a Second Sydney AirportAim 4Assess the best option for a Second Sydney Airport

Hypothesis 1There will be a need for a Second Sydney Airport, or other flight solution, in order to deal with increased flight demand, assuming the fact that there will, and should, be increased flight demand is unchallengedHypothesis 2Badgerys Creek will be a good option as the government already owns the land, and because it is reasonably close to the city, however because of this proximity there will be quite a few people affected by increased noise levels, and it would have a dramatic impact on the tenants in the area, who would have to move.Hypothesis 3Wilton will be a reasonable option for a Second Sydney Airport, as it is far enough away from the CBD to decrease the number of people suffering from increased noise levels, while still close enough to be a viable solution. However Wilton will pose an environmental problem because of its proximity to some of Sydney’s water catchments, and so may not be such a viable solutionHypothesis 4Neither will be a perfect option, however Badgerys Creek will be the better option as it is closer to the CBD and established public transport routes, and there are fewer environmental issues regarding it.

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Methodology

I interviewed residents of Badgerys Creek and Wilton (around 10) in regards to the type of area it was, what they felt about the possibility of an airport in the area, and what their biggest concerns were about an airport in the area. I did this by doorknocking and asking people as they were walking or at a shop (in Wilton, Badgerys Creek didn’t have shops). I also interviewed people from surrounding areas. For Badgerys Creek, I visited Kemps Creek to try and find some different perspectives because the main concern of most of the people in Badgerys Creek was losing their land as they were tenants on Commonwealth land. In Wilton I talked to some residents of nearby suburbs who had stopped at a takeaway food store in Wilton.

I also emailed the organiser of Wollondilly City Council’s (Wilton’s council area) No Airport in Wilton campaign to see if there was any extra information she could provide (other than their position paper which was online) and also the contacts for the Chambers of Commerce of the areas, who, although they replied, said they were unable to give a position. I also emailed a representative of the Stop Wilton Airport Residential Group (SWAG) who replied with some ideas to follow.

I found the secondary information online (either through a web search or through information provided by someone I had emailed), as well as, in the case of the SWAG postcard, from a woman in the petrol station in Wilton

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Research Findings

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Aim 1: Assess the need for a second Sydney airport

ProblemsSydney is projected to remain the most populous capital city with 6.7 million by 2051.1 Demand for Regular Public Transport (RPT) services in the Sydney region is expected to double to nearly 88 million passenger movements by 2035 and reach 165 million passenger movements by 2060 (see Appendix 1, pink highlighter) as seen in Figure 1 below.

As there are no other RPT airports in the area, the Kingsford-Smith would need to deal with these increases, which, by 2036, are double what it faces currently. However there are constraints on the Kingsford-Smith Airport’s ability to deal with this increase such as the size of the airport, limits due to the size and layout of the runways, a limited number of stands, and a legislative cap on aircraft movements (see Appendix 1, green highlighter)

1 ABS, Population Growth: Past, Present and Future

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Figure 9 - Unconstrained forecast demand for flight movements in Sydney, 2012 to 2060, Source: Executive Summary - Joint Study into Aviation Capacity in the Sydney Region

ResultsThe increased demand for the Kingsford-Smith Airport, and the limitations on meeting it will result in increased delays, reduced capacity to grow new services, reduced capacity to “noise-share” and the overloading of surface transport facilities (see Appendix 1, blue highlighter). This will result in economic impacts in terms of foregone expenditure, seen in Figure 1, 2 and 3.

Figure 10 - Key impacts and forgone NSW direct expenditure, 2011 to 2035 as a result of an overload on the Kingsford-Smith Airport (medium scenario, undiscounted), Source: Executive Summary - Joint Study into Aviation Capacity in the Sydney Region

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Figure 11 - Foregone NSW direct expenditure as a result of overload on the Kingsford-Smith airport broken down into areas of loss, 2011 to 2035 (medium scenario, undiscounted), Source: Executive Summary - Joint Study into Aviation Capacity in the Sydney Region

Figure 12 - Foregone NSW direct expenditure as a result of overload on the Kingsford-Smith airport broken down into areas of loss, 2011 to 2060 (medium scenario, undiscounted), Source: Executive Summary - Joint Study into Aviation Capacity in the Sydney Region

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It is predicted that by 2060, the economic impacts could total $59.5 billion in foregone expenditure and $34 billion in foregone GDP (more detail Appendix 1, orange highlighter). The foregone GDP, and foregone employment can be seen below in Figure 5 and 6

Figure 13 - NSW and National foregone GDP due to the overload on the Kingsford-Smith airport, 2011 to 2059 (medium scenario, 2010 dollars, $ billions), Source: Executive Summary - Joint Study into Aviation Capacity in the Sydney Region

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Figure 14 - NSW and Australia employment outcomes if a second Sydney airport is not built, 2011 to 2059 (medium outcome), Source: Executive Summary - Joint Study into Aviation Capacity in the Sydney Region

Problems with the resultsThe numbers of passenger movements are expected to more than double by 2060, however it is suggested global oil supplies will be down from a peak in 2017 by 60% in 2060 (see Appendix 2 and figure below)

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Figure 15 - BITRE and IEA forecasts of production of traditional crude from existing fields, 2008 to 2030. Source: Australian Government Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics Report 117

ConclusionsThe majority (71.7%) of Australians believe there is a need for a second Sydney airport (see Appendix 3). There is an economic need for a second Sydney airport, assuming that there is oil or other fuel supply to allow for the predicted growth.

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Aim 2: Investigate Badgerys Creek as an option for a second Sydney airport

IntroductionBadgerys Creek is a suburb in which a large amount of the land is government owned, purchased decades ago to build an airport. It is 50km from the CBD (see Appendix 4, pink highlighter), has a population of 721, and is a rural area (more details Appendix 5) as seen in the Photographs of the area below (more photographs in Appendix 6).

Photograph 8 - Photo of part of the Commonwealth land at Badgerys Creek where the airport would be built, Source: Sioned Vaughan, 2012

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Photograph 9 - a farmstead, representative of many of the places in Badgerys Creek. People from as far out as Bondi stable their horses here and come out to ride them. Source: Sioned Vaughan, 2012

EconomicAs the owner of the Mitre 10 store in nearby Kemp’s Creek said when interviewed, “the government has acquired the land and that land has had no growth while the other areas have. It is a stagnant area, they have to do something about it.” (First interview in Appendix 7). An airport in Badgerys Creek, while it would mean over one hundred people would have to move, would also boost the local area. Badgerys Creek would also be relatively cheaper (than places such as Wilton) because the land has already been purchased and less transport links would be needed as it is reasonably close to the city, and to road and rail links. It is also close to growing markets in Western Sydney, where it would supply employment and economic opportunities (see Appendix 8, pink highlighter)

NoiseIt is estimated that an airport at Badgerys Creek will mean 1.7 million people2 “noise affected” 2 “O’Farrell’s bid to kill off airport with housing”, Sun-Herald, April 15 2012

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SocialBuilding an airport at Badgerys Creek would mean over one hundred tenants losing their land and the loss of areas such as the farmstead in Photograph 2 for the people of Sydney.

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Aim 3: Investigate Wilton as an option for a second Sydney airport

IntroductionWilton was first identified as an option by the Second Sydney Airport Selection Programme (1983-85) and is a rural area (see photographs of the area, Appendix 9) South West of Sydney 83km from the CBD (see Appendix 4, green highlighter) with a population of 1890 (more details Appendix 10). The airport site is shown in the figure below.

Figure 16 - Site of Proposed Second Sydney Airport at Wilton, Source: created by staff of the Wollondilly City Council, accessed through an email from organiser of the council’s No Airport campaign

EconomicThere is a strong economic case against Wilton due mostly to its distance from the CBD (therefore needing more public transport connections) and from centres of growth (see Appendix 8, green highlighter and Appendix 11, pink highlighter) however it would provide much needed jobs and public transport connections to the Wilton area.

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EnvironmentalWilton is close to major water supplies, which could be polluted (see Appendix 12, pink highlighter for outline of the impact of airports on water quality), as well as home to aboriginal sites and sensitive ecosystems (see Appendix 11, green highlighter). 8 of 15 residents or locals interviewed named environmental concerns as one of their biggest concerns (Appendix 13).

NoiseIt is estimated that an airport in Wilton will mean 815003 people “noise affected” although it is unclear whether this is taking future development into account.

SocialWilton is a quiet country town with what residents call a “country feel” (Appendix 13, pink highlighter). 10 out of 11 Wilton residents interviewed said that they knew most of their neighbours, and 6 named the loss of the country atmosphere as one of their biggest concerns about the airport (Appendix 12). Residents campaign against the airport (see photographs below and Appendix 14).

3 “O’Farrell’s bid to kill off airport with housing”, Sun Herald, April 15, 2012

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Photograph 10 - Petition against an airport in Wilton; kept in the local petrol station, Source: Sioned Vaughan, 2012

Photograph 11 - “No Airport In Wilton” sign, put up in a shop window. 3 out of 5 shops along Almond St displayed this sign. Source: Sioned Vaughan, 2012

However, as shown in the photographs below, there is currently development going on in Wilton, and a major development is taking place nearby in Bingara Gorge so Wilton may lose its country charm anyway.

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Photograph 12 - Newly built houses in Wilton, Source: Sioned Vaughan, 2012

Photograph 13 - A very large, modern house in Wilton, Source: Sioned Vaughan, 2012

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Photograph 14 - A section of the Bingara Gorge Development; a few kilometres from Wilton, Source: Sioned Vaughan, 2012

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Aim 4: Assess the best option for a second Sydney airport

Badgerys Creek will be a better option for a second Sydney airport for various reasons including:

Environmental - Wilton is close to major water supplies for the Sydney area

Social - More people will be affected by noise pollution in the Badgerys Creek area, however the growth in the Wilton area, which it is suggested is needed in order for the airport to be a success would change the estimated noise impact for Wilton.

However the major reason for Badgerys Creek being a better option for a second Sydney airport is the economic factors. Badgerys Creek is closer to economic centres and will therefore be economically viable sooner and is also already owned by the government.

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Conclusions

The investigation answered the aims, in that I made an informed judgement on the need for a second airport and on whether Wilton or Badgerys Creek would be a better choice, however it may not have answered the aims completely accurately due to inadequate information, because of word restraints and because I am not an expert in the fields required. My results were quite similar to the hypotheses, in the sense that the answers I predicted were correct, however there were a few unforeseen reasons for this. In regards to Aim 1, I hadn't considered the possibility that we may not be able to meet the predictions for demand, and that these predictions were based on the assumption that there would be enough fuel to allow for them. In regards to Aim 3 and 4, although I did predict Badgerys Creek as the best solution due to its relative proximity to the CBD, I hadn't considered that the proximity to centres of regional growth may also be an issue. In fact, I had thought that Wilton being far away from everything was a benefit in some ways. However, I discovered that a second airport does not only need to be close to the CBD for transport reasons, but also needs to be near regional centres of growth in order to make it economically viable.

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Evaluation

My research project was a success in that it provided an overview of the issue and two of the possible solutions, and it answered my aims, however it may have been a little too big to work on and answer in a 2000 word report in high school. I really could have chosen just one of my first three aims, and worked on that in a lot more detail. In retrospect, I would have chosen Aim 1 and divided it into subsections, found some primary research types to add to it, and looked at it in a lot more detail. However I didn't and the project I did do had a few more problems than the breadth. Firstly, the surveys I was planning on doing with local residents turned out to be more like interviews, because I couldn't find enough people in either locality to create a large enough sample size to classify them as a survey. An improvement on my survey technique might have been to widen my search, and, in Wilton, to have visited on a weekend. Secondly, some of the information was a little beyond my understanding, and so I couldn't use it. Specifically, this included detailed economic analysis (not of Badgerys Creek and Wilton specifically). If I was doing the project again, I would have made more of an effort to understand this by asking teachers, and utilising google.

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Bibliography

Australian Bureau of Statistics, Quick Stats Census Data 2011, http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/data

Australian Bureau of Statistics, Population Growth: Past, Present and Future

Australian Government, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government, Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics, Report 117

Australian Government, Executive Summary - Joint Study into Aviation Capacity in the Sydney Region

Linda Luther, CRS Report for Congress, Environmental Impacts of Airport Operation, Maintenance and Expansion, April 5, 2007

Sydney Morning Herald, Weekend Edition April 14-15, 2012, Letter from Matt Mushalik, Epping

Sydney Morning Herald, Weekend Edition April 14-14, 2012, Reader's Panel

Sun Herald, April 15, 2012, "O'Farrell's bid to kill off airport with housing."

Wollondilly Shire Council, The CASE Against an Airport in Wilton

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Acknowledgements

The residents of Badgerys Creek, Wilton and nearby areas for being willing to answer some questions

Wollondilly City Council, in particular the representative of the No Airport in Wilton campaign, for responding to my emails with useful information

Representatives of the Penrith and Picton Chambers of Commerce for responding to my emails

Representative of the Stop Wilton Airport Group for responding to my emails

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Appendices

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Appendix 1Extract from the Executive Summary – Joint Study into Aviation Capacity in the Sydney Region

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Appendix 2Letter from Matt Mushalik, Epping to the Sydney Morning Herald, published in the April 14-15 2012 Weekend Edition

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Appendix 3The Reader’s Panel from the Sydney Morning Herald Weekend Edition; April 14-15, 2012

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Appendix 4“O’Farrell’s bid to kill off airport with housing.” From the Sun Herald, April 15 2012

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Appendix 5Quick Statistics on Badgerys Creek, from the 2011 Census Data, ABS

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Appendix 6More Photographs of the Badgerys Creek area, by Sioned Vaughan

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Appendix 7Interviews with residents of Badgerys Creek and surrounding areas

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Appendix 8Extract from the Executive Summary – Joint Study into Aviation Capacity in the Sydney Region

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Appendix 9Photographs of Wilton, by Sioned Vaughan

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Appendix 10Quick Statistics on Wilton, from the 2011 Census Data, ABS

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Appendix 11Wollondilly Shire Council’s position statement on an airport in Wilton

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Appendix 12CRS Report for Congress – Environmental Impacts of Airport Operation, Maintenance and Expansion (April 5, 2007), by Linda Luther

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Appendix 13Interviews with residents of Wilton and surrounding areas

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Appendix 14A Postcard of protest created by SWAG (Stop Wilton Airport Group), a residential protest movement. Collected from a petrol station in Wilton.

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