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Yesterday I updated my Elliot Wave counts showing that the ... · PDF fileYesterday I updated...

Date post: 21-Mar-2018
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1 | Page Yesterday I updated my Elliot Wave counts showing that the highest probabilities (70%) were for more upside, even after possible a little more downside (only 8p max). Thus today shouldn’t have been much of a surprise to anybody, as surprises in Bull Markets -as said- more often than not come to the upside. The Elliot Wave counts pointing to the downside were already reduced to 30%, low, probabilities. Not a day late as the market took off today and surpassed the cutoff level of SPX2600 with 1p - set in yesterday’s update - telling us micro-3 is underway, with micro-1 at SPX2590 and micro-2 at SPX2578. (Futures market did tag SPX2570 on Monday night!) The ideal wave tracker table shows the ideal wave targets below: micro-3 in orange, micro-5 in blue. Ideally nano-iii of micro-3 should now reach SPX2610, then nano-iv down SPX2597 (retest of breakout level) and then nano-v of micro-3 to SPX2622-2630. Etc. Table 1. Ideal wave tracker table for nano and micro-waves of minute-v Figure 1. SPX-60min chart. Ideal Fib-extensions show the price targets for micro-3, 4 and 5 (as shown in detail in table 1)
Transcript
  • 1 | P a g e

    Yesterday I updated my Elliot Wave counts showing that the highest probabilities (70%) were for more upside, even

    after possible a little more downside (only 8p max). Thus today shouldnt have been much of a surprise to anybody,

    as surprises in Bull Markets -as said- more often than not come to the upside. The Elliot Wave counts pointing to the

    downside were already reduced to 30%, low, probabilities. Not a day late as the market took off today and surpassed

    the cutoff level of SPX2600 with 1p - set in yesterdays update - telling us micro-3 is underway, with micro-1 at

    SPX2590 and micro-2 at SPX2578. (Futures market did tag SPX2570 on Monday night!) The ideal wave tracker table

    shows the ideal wave targets below: micro-3 in orange, micro-5 in blue. Ideally nano-iii of micro-3 should now reach

    SPX2610, then nano-iv down SPX2597 (retest of breakout level) and then nano-v of micro-3 to SPX2622-2630. Etc.

    Table 1. Ideal wave tracker table for nano and micro-waves of minute-v

    Figure 1. SPX-60min chart. Ideal Fib-extensions show the price targets for micro-3, 4 and 5 (as shown in detail in

    table 1)

  • 2 | P a g e

    On the S&Ps technical indicator (TI) chart, things continue to improving, as yesterday the A.I. non-ideal buy signal

    was confirmed and is now thus back on a solid buy. The MACD however, is still not giving a buy crossover; often

    typical for a 5th wave. But price, is still above its 20d SMA and above all trendline support. Thus the trend remains is

    still up as it has been for the past days. All in all, the daily chart has now 0 bearish indications as everything is pointing

    up and is properly aligned. This is a chart that wants to see higher prices, in line with my preferred count.

    Figure 2. S&P daily TI chart: A.I. buy signal continues. Price still above all SMA and uptrend lines: nothing bearish

  • 3 | P a g e

    The S&P500s McClellan Oscillator (MO) ended today at +8, up 19p from yesterdays close and thus confiroming

    todays higher prices. Now more stocks are advancing than declining: Bulls are now in charge. Like yesterday and the

    days before, the NDX-MO, NAS-MO and NYMO continue to be positive and to increase. As such, the SPX-SI

    ([Cumulative] Summation Index of the MO) does remain on a sell, but is starting to point back up. Similarly for all

    the other SIs: NYA-SI, NDX-SI, NAS-SI. Except the DIA-SI. Hence, the improvements from the past few days continue.

    Today the NYA-A/D cumulative line for common stocks only moved even higher -making a new ATH- after already

    breaking above the (red) downtrend line yesterday; clearly telling us the markets want to go even higher. As I said

    yesterday: Thus, the A/D lines for the NYA are telling us to expect higher prices as more and more stocks are now

    advancing (in line with the improving MO readings); see prior similar setups (orange boxes). Forewarned is indeed

    forearmed

    Figure 3. SPX-SI and all other SIs starting o point back up as breadth now positive across most indices. NYA A/D

    common stock cumulative line made a new ATH today after entering new uptrend mode yesterday.

  • 4 | P a g e

    In conclusion: Yesterday I concluded Since in a Bull Market (and especially a strong one like this one) surprises come

    often to the upside, its prudent to continue to look up until proven otherwise (i.e. a break below SPX2557). Boy did

    we get that surprise today or what . Despite the somewhat unclear EWT counts, Ive nonetheless continued to

    favor the Bullish options for the market and was at a minimum looking for SPX2595, but ultimately SPX2640s even

    after a brief possible dip to SPX2570 and here we are: the S&P already made new ATHs, signaling micro-3 of minute-

    v is underway. The later (minute-v) should ideally target SPX2635-2643 barring any unforeseen extensions. Market

    breadth continued to further improve today; and the NY A/D cumulative lines made new ATHs today after entering

    uptrend mode yesterday. The daily TI charts for all the general indices continue to improve, and are solidly on Buy

    with very few if any Bearish indications. Thus, for now all the charts tell me to continue to look for higher prices as

    the final waves for major-3 are wrapping up. We may get some profit taking over the Holiday; but it should only be

    corrective (small 4th waves)

    ALOHA

    Soul, Ph.D.

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