Date post: | 27-Dec-2015 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | timothy-warren |
View: | 213 times |
Download: | 0 times |
your visionour insight
FIRST WESTERN TRUST BANK
Investment Pools – Best Practices
Guy W. Holman, CPA, CFP®Sr. Vice President – Portfolio Manager5460 S. Quebec St., Suite 200Greenwood Village, CO 80111
your visionour insight
INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE
Meet Financial Goals with Appropriate Financial Vehicles
Extremes:• Pay as You Go
• Endowments
your visionour insight
UNDERSTANDING INVESTMENTS
Key Concepts– Time Horizon– Diversification/Asset Allocation– Risk and Reward– Discipline
your visionour insight
TIME HORIZON
Financial Vehicles each Have Unique Characteristics
• Short-Term (< 1 Year) – Bank Deposits, Money Market, CDs
• Intermediate Term (1-3 Years) – CDs, Fixed Income
• Long Term (> 3 Years) – Diversified Portfolio including Equities, Risk Assets
your visionour insight
DIVERSIFICATION/ASSET ALLOCATION
Determinants Beyond Time Horizon:• Liquidity Needs
• Income Needs
• Risk Tolerance– Emotional (Risk Appetite)– Economic Capacity
your visionour insight
INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES
• Different investment vehicles– Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate, Cash
Equivalents
• Varying levels of risk associated with different investments
• Reduce risk with Asset Allocation and Diversification
your visionour insight
RISK AND RETURN
• Cash– Stable Value Fund
• Bonds– Government – Corporate
• Real Estate– REITS
• Stocks– Large Companies– Mid & Small Companies– International Companies
Lower Risk
Higher Risk
your visionour insight
MANAGING RISK
Asset allocation takes diversification a step further
The Impact of Various Factors on the Variability of Investment
Results
Source: Financial Advisors Study, 1991; Confirmed by Ibbotson Associates, 1999.
No investment strategy, such as asset allocation, can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Study results are based on historical data and past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
your visionour insight
THE “LOST DECADE” OF INVESTING?Diversification and compounding returns
helped
10 year US equity return of -0.07% (annualized) challenging to say the least. US equity is not the entire story in a diversified portfolio. Other diversifiers witnessed stronger returns that pulled up total return for a diversified portfolio. Don’t confuse annualized returns with cumulative returns. The compounding nature of returns can work
in your favor. Will the next 10 years look like the past 10 years? That’s why you diversify and try to increase your odds.
10 Years Ending March 2010
Diversification does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Returns represent past performance, are not a guarantee of future performance, and are not indicative of any specific investment.US Equity: R3000; Developed Non-US Equity: MSCI EAFE; Emerging Markets: MSCI EM; Fixed Income: BC Aggregate; Real Estate: FTSE NAREIT Equity; 60/40 Portfolio: 36% US Equity, 16% EAFE, 3% EM, 5% FTSE NAREIT, 40% BC Aggregate
18%162%
84%195%
50%
-1%
-1%2%
10%6%11%
4%
-10% 40% 90% 140% 190%
10 YearAnnualized
Returns
10 YearCumulative
Returns
US Equity Developed Non-US EquityEmerging Market Equity Fixed IncomePublic Real Estate (REITs) 60/40 Portfolio
Annualized returns hide the
impact of compounding
returns over time
$-
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
$4.5
$5.0
Mar-00Mar-01Mar-02Mar-03Mar-04Mar-05Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10
US EquityEmerging Market Equity
Developed Non-US EquityFixed Income
Public Real Estate (REIT's) 60/40 Portfolio*
60/40 Portfoli
o
Growth of $160/40 Portfolio return
smoothed by diversification
your visionour insight
TRACKING INDEX PORTFOLIO RECOVERY
Did staying the course make sense?
This hypothetical example is for illustration only and is not intended to reflect the return of any actual investment. The 60/40 Balanced Index portfolio does not reflect a deduction for expenses or fees, had it done so, returns would have been lower.
Index returns represent past performance and are not a guarantee of future performance.
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08
Feb
-08
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
May
-08
Jun-
08
Jul-0
8
Aug
-08
Sep
-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09
Feb
-09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug
-09
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec
-09
Cash after Sept 08 Treasuries after Sept 08 60/40 Balanced Portfolio
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
$110,000
Po
rtfo
lio V
alu
e ($
)
US Equity Market PeakOctober 9, 2007
March 9, 2009US Equity Market Low
Sept 14, 2008Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy
Mar 14, 2008JPMorganpurchasesBear Stearns
July 11, 2008Oil closes atrecord highof $147 barrel
Nov 21, 20082008 Market Low
May 29, 2009US Equity marketturns positive for2009
Feb 17, 2009Obama signs$787b stimulus
Mar 18, 2009Fed plan to buy up to$1 trillion in treasuriesand mortgages
Returns Oct 08 - Dec 09US Equity -0.9%Non-US Equity +10.9%US Bonds +10.8%Treasuries +4.9%Cash +0.3%
Sept 30, 2008Three options:1) 60/40 stay the course2) Move to 100% Cash3) Move to 100% Treasuries
Portfolio Values on Dec 31, 200960/40 Balanced Portfolio:
$92,771Cash Portfolio: $85,353Treasuries:
$89,213
Treasuries: BC Treasury Index, Cash: BC 1-3 Month T-bill, 60/40: 40% Russell 3000, 20% Russell Global xUS Equity Index, 40% BC Aggregate Index
your visionour insight
HISTORICAL EQUITY RETURNS
After 2008 and early 2009, who would have believed such a strong year for equities?
Average calendar year return +11.8% Note the distribution of returns to the right of 0% Over time, it is extremely difficult to time the market to avoid years like 2008
and be invested to enjoy years like 2009
Calendar Year S&P 500 Returns: 1926-2009
Rates of Return
200620041993 2009
2000 1988 2003 19971990 2007 1986 1999 19951981 2005 1979 1998 19911977 1994 1972 1996 19891969 1992 1971 1983 19851962 1987 1968 1982 19801953 1984 1965 1976 19751946 1978 1964 1967 1955
2001 1940 1970 1959 1963 19501973 1939 1960 1952 1961 1945
2002 1966 1934 1956 1949 1951 1938 19582008 1974 1957 1932 1948 1944 1943 1936 1935 1954
1931 1937 1930 1941 1929 1947 1926 1942 1927 1928 1933-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% x 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Returns represent past performance, are not a guarantee of future performance, and are not indicative of any specific investment.
your visionour insight
MAKING THE INVESTMENT DECISION
Rules of the Road Have Not Changed• Diversify• Take risk appropriately to your time
horizon• Stay disciplined - respond to your plan
AND avoid emotional reactions to news of the day
• Make investment changes when your situation or needs change
your visionour insight
INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS
Investment Solution
Management Solution
Reason
Investment Portfolio - $100,000 - $250,000 Single Style-Allocation Fund Frank Russell Company Lower cost LifePoints Funds Greater diversification
Investment Portfolio - $250,000 - $750,000US Swim Asset Allocation Frank Russell Company Master IPS – lower cost
Institutional Funds
Investment Portfolio – Over $750,000Customized Asset Allocation Frank Russell Company Customized IPS
Funds Institutional pricing
Investment Portfolio < $100,000Bank Deposits, CDs