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Youth Employment in
Sub-Saharan Africa
The World Bank
March 2014
www.worldbank.org/africa/youthemploymentreport
Presented at PIM Seminar on Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa on February 27, 2014, at IFPRI, Washington, DC
Main Findings
Disenchanted urban youth who want to work in the wage sector are just the tip of the iceberg
The youth employment problem is about pathways to adulthood and productive work in agriculture, household enterprises, as well as the modern wage sector—with priority actions on the human capital as well as the business environment side
The Challenge and Opportunity: Africa in a Young Continent
Sub-Saharan Africa
3
South Asia
-100-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80+
Population in millionsMale 2015 Female 2015
Male 2035 Female 2035
-100-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80+
Population in millionsMale 2015 Female 2015
Male 2035 Female 2035
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
East Asia and Pacific
-160 -120 -80 -40 0 40 80 120 160
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80+
Population in millionsMale 2015 Female 2015
Male 2035 Female 2035
Over the past two decades, agriculture’s share in GDP contracted in Africa, but manufacturing did not replace it
Africa’s Youth Employment Challenge Starts with the Structure of Past Growth
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010
SSA South Asia East Asia
Agriculture Industry (exc. Manufacturing)
Manufacturing Services, etc.
Low income countries
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010
SSA South Asia East Asia
Agriculture Industry (exc. Manufacturing)
Manufacturing Services, etc.
Low-Middle income countries
Growth has not been “Jobless”
4.0
2.1
12.9
11.2
3.2
0 5 10 15
Total
Farm
HouseholdEnteprises
Wage Private
Wage Public
Annual Growth Rate
3.2
1.9
1.8
7.6
-0.5
-5 0 5 10
Total
Farm
HouseholdEnteprises
Wage Private
Wage Public
Annual Growth Rate
Tanzania2000/1 – 2005/6
Ghana, 1991/2 – 2005/6
2.9
2.0
8.6
7.3
-0.6
-5 0 5 10
Total
Farm
HouseholdEnteprises
Wage Private
Wage Public
Annual Growth Rate
Uganda, 1992/3 – 2005/6
Growth in Primary Employment, by type of job (%)
Note: Tanzania is mainland only
Even so, in 2010 most Africans worked in agriculture and household enterprises
0
20
40
60
80
100
Low Income(183 m)
Lower-MiddleIncome(40 m)
Resource Rich(150 m)
Upper-MiddleIncome(21 m)
Total(395 M)
Lab
or
Forc
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n 1
5-6
4P
erc
en
t
Agriculture HE Wage Industry Wage Services Unemployed
What will the structure of employment look like in 2020?
0
20
40
60
80
100
Low Income(248 m)
Lower-MiddleIncome(52 m)
Resource Rich(200 m)
Upper-MiddleIncome(23 m)
Total(523 M)
Lab
or
Forc
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n 1
5-6
4P
erc
en
t
Agriculture HE Wage Industry Wage Services Unemployed
Where will the new jobs come from?
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Agriculture HouseholdEnterprises
WageIndustry
WageServices
Lab
or
forc
e (
mill
ion
s)
2010 New Jobs in 2020
Projected net new jobs in 2020 compared to 2010
37%
38%
21%
4%
Agriculture Household enterprise
Wage services Wage industry
Gross job flows between 2010 and 2020 (percent of new
entrant individuals)
In this economic environment, the transition from school to work in Sub-Saharan Africa is slow
Rural Urban
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
Pro
po
rtio
n
Age
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.8
1.0
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
Pro
po
rtio
n
Age
Not at School, Not Working, Looking for WorkAt School
Both Working and at School
Working
Young women face additional challenges—family formation starts earlier
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Ever had sexual intercourse
Ever married
Ever had a child
Female
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Ever had sexual intercourse
Ever married
Ever had a child
Male
The employment agenda starts with education as it shapes opportunities…
Education Profile of Workers ages 25-34 in each Sector
0
20
40
60
80
100
Agriculture Non-farmhouseholdenterprise
Wagewithoutcontract
Wage withcontract
All
No Education Primary incomp. Primary comp. Secondary +
Priority Actions to Speed Youth’s Transition
A cross-cutting agenda on education quality
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Per
cen
t
Competent and above (5,6,7,8)
Beginning numeracy (Level 4)
Pre, Emergent and Basic numeracy (Levels 1,2,3)
Percent of SACMEQ 6th grade Math test-takers who score at each performance level
Africa is becoming educated….. but too many primary school leavers do not have even basic skills
0
20
40
60
80
100
GhanaGrade 3
KenyaEnd
Grade 3
LiberiaEnd
Grade 2
MaliEnd
Grade 2
SenegalEnd
Grade 3
TheGambia
EndGrade 2
UgandaEnd
Grade 2
Per
cen
t
Percentage of students who cannot read a single word of a
simple paragraph, 2010
Severe Shortfalls in the Delivery of Education Services
Service Delivery Indicators
Kenya Senegal Tanzania Uganda
(Public schools only)
Classroom teacher absence rate 47% 29% 53% 57%
Share of teachers with minimum
knowledge:
English/French 10% 29% 9% 4%Mathematics 75% 75% 73% 36%
Classroom teaching time 2h 19m 3h 15m 2h 04m 2h 58m(scheduled teaching time) (5h 40m) (4h 36m) (5h 12m) (7h 20m)
Priority Actions to build a strong human capital foundation
• Address the lack of learning in basic education by reforming accountability frameworks, ensuring teachers are prepared and supported, and leveraging private providers
• Promote ECD and nutrition to build a stronger foundation for skills development
• Build socioemotional and behavioral skills (consider reforms within the school system)
Priority actions now to speed youth’s transition
For agriculture
For household enterprises
For the modern wage sector
Cross-cutting
New opportunities exist in agriculture, but youth need land and
support to make it productiveLand ownership by age group
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Pe
rce
nt
Age
Malawi Tanzania Uganda
Opportunities and constraints
• Growing demand for food produced on Africa’s farms –domestically and exports
• Youth can be early adopters of new technology if it is available
• … but serious constraints in access to land and capital, technology and skills
Priorities for higher youth productivity in agriculture
Do now, for now
• Enable rental markets for land
• Support high-quality, demand-driven extension services (covering information as well as skills)
• Promote rural village savings and loan associations and self-help groups
• Link agricultural credit to extension services
Do now, for later• Establish effective land
registration and transaction systems
• Scale up intergenerationalland transfer programs
• Mainstream youth into interventions (producer organizations, livestock development, irrigation, and others)
• Build skills through rapid improvements in education systems in rural areas
Household Enterprises are not SMEs – they need their own approach, and youth need support to seize opportunities
Most enterprises are family operations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
SelfEmployed
SelfEmployed
with FamilyHelpers
With 1-4Employees
5 +Employees
Pe
rce
nt
Youth struggle to start a business
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
15
- 1
9
20
- 2
4
25
- 2
9
30
- 3
4
35
- 3
9
40
- 4
4
45
- 4
9
50
- 5
4
55
- 5
9
60
- 6
5
66
+
Pe
rce
nt
Distribution of HE owners
Share of age group being in HE owners
Priorities for productivity in household enterprises
Do now, for now• Develop a national strategy that
reflects the voice of youth and household enterprise owners
• Ensure access to workspace and infrastructure for household enterprises through improved urban policy
• Leverage NGOs to deliver programs for youth to address multiple constraints (building a range of skills together, building skills along with providing access to finance)
Do now, for later
• Build foundational skills through rapid improvements in education systems
• Address infrastructure needs of household enterprises in urban development planning
Financial inclusion for family farms and enterprises, as well as households
African youth save, but not in banks (Youth 15-24 who save)
• Households, and farm or business finances comingled
• Households need place to save and to get credit
• Youth need savings to start a business or buy inputs for the farm, and a place to safeguard profits
• Mobile money shows promise but need better regulations
• Informal savings groups are filling the gap, especially in rural areas
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Low income Lower-middleincome
Upper-middleincome
Low income Lower-middleincome
Upper-middleincome
SSA Rest of the World
Pe
rce
nt
Formal Informal/Club Other
A manufacturing strategy won’t solve today’s youth employment, but it will help the next generation
Manufacturing employment has grown slowly
“Game changer” scenario will take time to have an effect
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Eth
iop
ia 1
99
02
00
7
Ken
ya 1
99
02
00
7
Gh
ana
198
02
00
3
Cam
ero
on
19
902
00
7
Mal
awi 1
990
20
07
Sen
egal
19
90
20
00
Tan
zan
ia 1
99
02
00
7
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g Em
plo
yme
nt
(‘0
00
of
wo
rke
rs)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Original Alternative Original Alternative
Low Income 248 m) Lower-middle income (52 m)
Pe
rce
nt
Agriculture Household enterprises
Wage industry Wage services
Unemployed
Priorities for increasing modern wage sector jobs
Do now, for now
• Reduce the cost of infrastructure services by addressing quality and efficiency
• Address logistics bottlenecks
• Reduce corruption and the cost of business start-up
• Reform technical vocational education and training and pursue public-private partnerships for delivering demand-driven training
Do now, for later
• Increase the quantity of infrastructure services
• Expand regional markets for products
• Build foundational skills through rapid improvements in education systems
• Improve access to credit through financial sector reform
Cross-cutting priorities
Do now, for now
• Use safety net programs as a platform to deliver interventions to disadvantaged youth
• Increase awareness of opportunities and pathways to self-employment, especially for young women
• Consider second-chance education for basic skills
Do now, for later
• Reduce fertility rates to lower the size of future youth cohorts
• Build better employment data and a stronger evidence base to identify country constraints, priorities, and opportunities
YE is about building skills through improving the quality of education, as well as behavioral and business skills
YE is about agriculture – where strategies exist but have not been implemented, and could benefit from a youth lens
YE is about household non-farm enterprises – where few strategies exist
YE is about creating more labor intensive enterprises as fast as possible to absorb the supply of new entrants with education who want wage jobs
YE is about female empowerment and focus on the poor
Governments need to own the “whole” problem
A wide ranging agenda …with no silver bullets
Thank you
www.worldbank.org/africa/youthemploymentreport