Zimbabwe IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS CURRENTLY, … · 2019-08-13 · ZIMBABWE IPC ACUTE...

ZimbabweCURRENTLY, DESPITE ALL HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE PROVIDED,

IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS June - December 2019 Issued in August 2019

CURRENT - JUNE TO SEPTEMBER 2019

2.29M25% of the rural population

People facing severe acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+)

IN NEED OF URGENT ACTION

Phase 5 0People in Catastrophe

Phase 4 623 000People in Emergency

Phase 3 1 671 000People in Crisis

Phase 2 2 486 000 People in Stress

Phase 1 4 607 000People minimally food insecure

PROJECTED - OCTOBER TO DECEMBER 2019

3.58M38% of the rural population

People facing severe acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+)

IN NEED OF URGENT ACTION

Phase 5 0People in Catastrophe

Phase 4 1 105 000 People in Emergency

Phase 3 2 475 000People in Crisis

Phase 2 2 679 000 People in Stress

Phase 1 3 160 000People minimally food insecure

Overview

Currently, 25% of the rural population are estimated to be in Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phase 3 and 4) and face moderate to large food consumption gaps or are only marginally able to meet minimum food needs by depleting essential assets or employing crisis or emergency coping strategies. Another 26% are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

Between October and December, the number of people in IPC Phase 3+ is expected to increase to 3.58 million (38%) with nine districts classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

The first half of the agricultural season (Oct-Dec 2018) was affected by El Niño, which resulted in a delayed start of the season; and the second half was characterised by prolonged dry spells. The Eastern and parts of Southern Zimbabwe were affected by cyclone Idai. These climate shocks, exacerbated by the effects of the Fall Army Worm, resulted in significantly reduced crop harvest. The second round crop and livestock assessment reported a deficit of 760,ooo MT indicating that most households will have reduced supply from own production.

Livestock diseases contributed to two thirds of cattle deaths. Water availability and grazing conditions are generally fair but are expected to deteriorate as the season progresses. The situation is also a result of the prevailing macro-economic situation in Zimbabwe characterised by hyperinflation (98% in May 2019) leading to erosion of income and purchasing power.

Key Drivers

Current Acute Food Insecurity - June - September 2019

HyperinflationRising prices of basic goods affect purchasing power and reduce food access.

Tropical CyclonesCyclone Idai disrupted livelihoods reducing food availability.

IPC Analysis Partners:

Dry SpellsEl Nino and dry spells had a negative effect on crop production in Zimbabwe.

It should be noted that the ZIMVAC 2019 Rural Livelihoods Assessment results can be related to the IPC analysis results. The ZIMVAC assessment generates estimates of total food insecure population based on updated contributing evidence, whereas the IPC provides the breakdown of the acutely food insecure populations by level of severity, generated through the use of outcome evidence. The priority of the IPC Acute Classification is to call attention on populations in need of urgent assistance to protect and save livelihoods and reduce food consumption gaps, that are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4). In addition, populations classified in Stressed conditions (IPC Phase 2) are also considered as acutely food insecure and remain highly vulnerable to further shocks. Those populations also require support to ensure their livelihoods can be sustained and prevent further deterioration into Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

FEWS NET

OVER 2 MILLION PEOPLE ARE IN NEED OF URGENT ACTION IN ZIMBABWE

Map Source: IPC Technical Working Group and ZIMVAC

BOTSWANA

ZAMBIA

MOZAMBIQUE

SOUTH AFRICA

Hwange

Binga

Chiredzi

Hurungwe

Insiza

Mwenezi

Gutu

Lupane

Bubi

Gwanda

Kariba

Beitbridge

Kwekwe

Makoni

Bikita

Matobo

Gweru

Makonde

Nkayi

GokweSouth

Zvimba

Bulilima

Nyanga

Mbire

Buhera

Umguza

Mutare

Chivi

Masvingo

Tsholotsho

Zaka

Sanyati

Mangwe

Mudzi

Chikomba

Chegutu

Chipinge

Seke

GokweNorthMutoko

Mazowe

Mberengwa

Centenary

Guruve

Murehwa

Shamva

Mutasa

Chimanimani

Rushinga

Mhondoro-Ngezi

Shurugwi

Chirumhanzu

MountDarwin

Hwedza

Marondera

Bindura

Zvishavane

Goromonzi

Umzingwane

UzumbaMarambaPfungwe

HwangeUrban

Classi�cation takes into account levels humanitarian food assistance provided

MAP KEYIPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase Classi�cation(mapped Phase represents highest severity a�ecting at least 20% of the population)

1 - Minimal

2 - Stressed

3 - Crisis

4 - Emergency

5 - Famine

At least 25% of households meet 25-50% of caloric needs fromhumanitarian food assistance

At least 25% of households meet over 50% of caloric needs from humanitarian food assistance

Areas not included in Analysis

Urban settlement

HARARE

ZIMBABWE | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 2

CURRENT SITUATION OVERVIEWFor the period June to September 2019, the proportion of rural people facing a Crisis situation or worse (IPC Phase 3-4) was 25% corresponding to 2.29 million people, who require urgent action to protect/save livelihoods and reduce food consumption gaps. Another 2.49 million people (26 % of the rural population) in Zimbabwe are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and require livelihood support. This is attributed to major food deficits and reduced income amid macroeconomic challenges, such as hyperinflation and rising food prices. Compared to the lean season analysis undertaken in February 2019, the population in IPC Phase 2 has decreased from 30% to 26%. This can be attributable to the recent harvests, although minimal, and to the humanitarian assistance programmes implemented in these areas.

The following are the key drivers: The poor rainfall season, exacerbated by the effects of the Fall Army Worm, resulted in significantly reduced crop harvest while households had limited carry-over stock from the previous consumption year. Consequently, cereal sufficiency ranges between 0 and 6 months in about half of the districts. Income levels are generally low compared to the same time last year. The hyperinflationary environment has further reduced the purchasing power for households. The prices of basic commodities has increased exponentially beyond the reach of most rural households thereby affecting their access to food.

Agriculture related casual labour opportunities have been limited due to the poor agricultural season. Households that depend largely on livestock production have been affected by livestock diseases, with 69% of livestock dying mainly due to tick borne diseases and lack of veterinary chemicals such as acaricides and vaccines. Livestock prices have depreciated due to poor livestock conditions caused by late establishment of pasture, and slow recharge of water sources. Therefore, income for these households are eroded thus reducing their purchasing power during a year when market dependency starts earlier than usual.

The areas which had the highest proportion of households facing Crisis outcomes (IPC Phase 3) or worse are the typically production deficit areas of Masvingo, Midlands, Manicaland as well as some typically production surplus areas of Mashonaland Central and Mashonaland West due to the drought which caused major reduction in crop production. Manicaland and Masvingo provinces also suffered the significant impact of cyclone Idai which led to the destruction of livelihoods.

There was generally a deterioration of all food consumption indicators compared to previous years in areas where chronic food insecurity prevails such as the Southern parts of the country. In some areas which are not normally of concern, such as the Mashonaland Provinces, livelihood coping mechanisms have increased both in frequency and severity in order to cope with food consumption gaps. For some households, this leads to the depletion of their assets thereby affecting resilience to future shocks. It is therefore imperative that these areas are attended to in order to reduce food consumption gaps and save livelihoods.


CURRENT IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY FOR JUNE - SEPT 2019

NotesNote: A population in Phase 3+ does not necessarily reflect the full population in need of urgent action. This is because some households may be in Phase 2 or even 1 but only because of receipt of assistance, and as a result they may be in need of continued action. This IPC classification met the highest evidence level (*** High). For detailed population data, see table by district in annex 1 on page 8. .

Population Table by Province

Province Population Total

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 3 +

#people % #people % #people % #people % #people % #people %

Manicaland 1 602 331 720 208 45 457 001 29 314 044 20 93 166 6 0 0 407 210 26

Mashonaland Central 1 165 863 554 829 48 244 116 21 257 001 22 109 921 9 0 0 366 922 31

Mashonaland East 1300 833 780 013 60 310 932 24 146 023 11 55 185 4 0 0 201 208 15

Mashonaland West 1 229 261 576 334 46 338 508 28 219 563 18 94 856 8 0 0 314 419 26

Masvingo 1 450 839 726 421 50 389 128 27 205 848 14 123 615 9 0 0 329 463 23

Matabeleland North 719 442 351 546 49 199 736 28 122 794 17 45 365 6 0 0 168 159 23

Matabeleland South 647 425 287 272 44 220 299 34 107 488 17 32 372 5 0 0 139 860 22

Midlands 1 304 669 610 657 47 326 651 25 298 706 23 68 658 5 0 0 367 364 28

National 9 420 663 4 607 280 49 2 486 371 26 1 671 467 18 623 138 7 0 0 2 294 605 25


BOTSWANA

ZAMBIA

MOZAMBIQUE

SOUTH AFRICA

Hwange

Binga

Chiredzi

Hurungwe

Insiza

Mwenezi

Gutu

Lupane

Bubi

Gwanda

Kariba

Beitbridge

Kwekwe

Makoni

Bikita

Matobo

Gweru

Makonde

Nkayi

GokweSouth

Zvimba

Bulilima

Nyanga

Mbire

Buhera

Umguza

Mutare

Chivi

Masvingo

Tsholotsho

Zaka

Sanyati

Mangwe

Mudzi

Chikomba

Chegutu

Chipinge

Seke

GokweNorthMutoko

Mazowe

Mberengwa

Centenary

Guruve

Murehwa

Shamva

Mutasa

Chimanimani

Rushinga

Mhondoro-Ngezi

Shurugwi

Chirumhanzu

MountDarwin

Hwedza

Marondera

Bindura

Zvishavane

Goromonzi

Umzingwane

UzumbaMarambaPfungwe

HwangeUrban



1 - Minimal

2 - Stressed

3 - Crisis

4 - Emergency

5 - Famine




Urban settlement

HARARE


PROJECTED SITUATION OVERVIEWDuring the projection period, from October to December 2019, the food security situation is expected to worsen with an estimated 3.58 million people (38% of the rural population) in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse who will require urgent action to reduce food consumptions gaps and save livelihoods. Among these, an estimated 2.47 million people will likely face Crisis conditions (IPC Phase 3) whilst 1.10 million will likely be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). An additional estimate of 2.68 million people will likely face Stressed conditions (IPC Phase 2). Compared to the current analysis, around 1.3 million people are likely to deteriorate into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse.

This projected IPC classification is based on the following assumptions:

• Rainfall: Near average rainfall conditions are expected country-wide between October and December 2019. This will likely have different impacts depending on the areas with those that typically receive less than adequate rainfall continuing to face a deteriorating situation characterized by late planting and limited casual labour opportunities resulting in limited agricultural labour wages and low purchasing power.

• Prices: Maize grain prices during the projection period (October 2019 through December 2019) will likely prevail at above average, with high and increasing levels due to low supply, high demand and a volatile economic situation, high inflation and pricing systems.

• Water Availability: Due to the below average rainfall received in the 2018-19 agricultural season, the water available for vegetable production is likely to be limited. Water supply for livestock and domestic use is also likely to be affected during the entire projection period (October through December 2019) especially during October to December before the first rains are received which varies across the country.

• Agricultural and non-agricultural labour availability and rates: On-going macroeconomic challenges, cash shortages and below-average 2018-19 crop production will likely affect opportunities for agricultural and non-agricultural labour from June through December 2019. Labour Wages are also likely to be generally lower even where opportunities are available.

• Remittances: In country and outside the country remittances are expected at lower than average levels due to the economic challenges faced by both urban and rural based family members.

• Pests and diseases: Pest and diseases that have affected crops and livestock, such as the Fall Army Worm and tick borne diseases are expected to prevail at the same levels as current conditions.

• Humanitarian Food Assistance: The classification for the projection period assumes that no humanitarian food assistance will be provided. This is because there are no confirmed plans and funding for such assistance as stakeholders are waiting for the results of the ZimVAC 2019 Rural Livelihoods Assessment and IPC to mobilize resources and/or move forward with planning depending on where assistance will be most needed.

Buhera district was classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) with 55% of the population falling in phase 3 or higher in the projection period. The district only has 4-6 months of cereal supply, leaving a gap of 6-8 months. An estimated 51% of households were engaging in crisis coping strategies such as selling of their productive assets to access food. The use of emergency coping strategies was also prevalent, with 10% of households reporting that they sold the last female animal, 19% were begging for food and 9% sold more of their animals. However, even with the use of these livelihood coping strategies, households still have significant food consumption gaps, with 26% of households in the poor consumption category (FCS). This situation will deteriorate as the lean season approaches since households will have depleted their stocks, and begin to rely on markets for their cereal needs.

Cereal supplies for Mbire will only last for 4-6 months thus leaving a gap of 6-8 months. The Food Consumption Score (FCS) and Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) eight-year trend shows that households in IPC Phase 3 and above remain relatively high averaging 30% (FCS) and 40% (HDDS). The Household Hunger Scale, which had been stable hovering around 5% in IPC Phase 3 and above has increased in the current season to 15.7% and this is expected to increase in the projected period as households deplete their food reserves following the season’s drought and the economic crisis of abnormal price hikes. Compared to 2016, at the peak of the El Nino, the Livelihood Coping Strategy Index (LCSI) has deteriorated from 19% in IPC Phase 4 to 29% currently, and will likely deteriorate even further owing to reduced rainfall and labour opportunities. Labour opportunities will be impacted negatively and even presently stands only at 3.6% of formal employment, with 1% of households in casual labour employment.

Chivi is classified in IPC Phase 4 for the projected 2019/20 lean season. The key factors that are anticipated to drive the situation are near average rainfall in a district that is perennially drought prone, marked food price hikes, low purchasing power of the population mainly caused by scarcity of casual labour and below average labour rates. Cereal sustenance of less than 4 months will leave most households with depleted stocks even before the onset of rainfall. The prevailing increasing grain prices due to poor harvests and economic meltdown are likely to negatively affect households’ capacity to access food. Households’ quality of diet and food gaps will also worsen as more households move from borderline consumption pattern to poor food consumption. Extinction of in-district remittances is also likely due to the current economic reforms and this again will impact on diet quality and food access.

Mwenezi was classified in Crisis (IPC phase 3) for the current period and Phase 4 during the projection period. The district has been affected by below average rainfall and pests which reduce crop production, high food prices and limited livelihood options. Household’s vulnerability in Mwenezi is likely to worsen due to the persisting hazard factors which limit their capacities to access food and engage in livelihood activities. Like all other districts, Mwenezi is also largely affected by hyperinflation that has impacted the purchasing power of all households.


PROJECTED IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY FOR OCT - DEC 2019

NotesNote: A population in Phase 3+ does not necessarily reflect the full population in need of urgent action. This is because some households may be in Phase 2 or even 1 but only because of receipt of assistance, and as a result they may be in need of continued action. This IPC classification met the highest evidence level (*** High). For detailed population data, see table by district in annex 2 on page 10.

Population Table by Province

Province Population Total

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 3 +

#people % #people % #people % #people % #people % #people %

Manicaland 1 602 331 440 142 27 511 189 32 508 712 32 142 291 9 0 0 651 003 41

Mashonaland Central 1 165 863 438 262 38 253 907 22 317 439 27 156 257 13 0 0 473 696 40

Mashonaland East 1 300 833 520 105 40 389 341 30 242 976 19 148 411 11 0 0 391 387 30

Mashonaland West 1 229 261 395 586 32 353 885 29 331 624 27 148 164 12 0 0 479 788 39

Masvingo 1 450 839 558 206 38 385 710 27 306 244 21 198 745 14 0 0 504 989 35

Matabeleland North 719 442 247 162 34 198 808 28 167 570 23 105 904 15 0 0 273 474 38

Matabeleland South 647 425 214 764 33 199 592 31 163 345 25 69 731 11 0 0 233 076 36

Midlands 1304 669 345 720 26 386 153 30 436 846 33 135 955 10 0 0 572 801 43

National 9 420 663 3 159 947 34 2 678 585 28 2 474 756 26 1 105 458 12 0 0 3 580 214 38


BOTSWANA

ZAMBIA

MOZAMBIQUE

SOUTH AFRICA

Hwange

Binga

Chiredzi

Hurungwe

Insiza

Mwenezi

Gutu

Lupane

Bubi

Gwanda

Kariba

Beitbridge

Kwekwe

Makoni

Bikita

Matobo

Gweru

Makonde

Nkayi

GokweSouth

Zvimba

Bulilima

Nyanga

Mbire

Buhera

Umguza

Mutare

Chivi

Masvingo

Tsholotsho

Zaka

Sanyati

Mangwe

Mudzi

Chikomba

Chegutu

Chipinge

Seke

GokweNorthMutoko

Mazowe

Mberengwa

Centenary

Guruve

Murehwa

Shamva

Mutasa

Chimanimani

Rushinga

Mhondoro-Ngezi

Shurugwi

Chirumhanzu

MountDarwin

Hwedza

Marondera

Bindura

Zvishavane

Goromonzi

Umzingwane

UMP

HwangeUrban



1 - Minimal

2 - Stressed

3 - Crisis

4 - Emergency

5 - Famine




Urban settlement

HARARE


RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION Response Priorities

• In light of the high prevalence of acute food insecurity, there is need for urgent assistance to reduce food consumption gaps and protect/save livelihoods for the 2.29 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and above and the additional 1.3 million people facing Crisis or worse between October and December 2019.

• In response to increased vulnerability, the Government and its Development Partners should consider improving efficiency in the identification of beneficiaries. A standardised approach to enhance accountability should be implemented.

• Management of Food Aid: Government should take far-reaching and monitorable actions to reform the way Zimbabwe receives and manages food aid. Management of Food Aid should be in-line with the “Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness” particularly item 3(ii) - increasing alignment of aid with partner country’s priorities, systems and procedures and helping to strengthen their capacities.

• Crop Production: Results show evidence of households’ constraints in accessing agriculture inputs. During the current 2019/20 consumption year, more resources should be channelled towards Government Input Support (the Command Agriculture and Presidential Input Scheme Programmes), household economy strengthening and building productive community assets.

• Crop Production - Government to consider the importance and urgency of efforts to build resilience against climate variability and climate change amongst the rural populations of Zimbabwe. These efforts could include stepping up the promotion of climate-smart agriculture, water harvesting and irrigation development, particularly in the most drought-prone areas

• Crop Pests: Considering the damage caused by the Fall Army worm, building capacity of extension agencies in providing the relevant and high quality information to farmers on Fall Armyworm is recommended. Government to ensure Research institutions have capacity to determine sustainable ways of managing the pest including efficacy of pesticides and indigenous control measures, most effective, lowest-risk, economical, accessible and easily used by smallholders (without sophisticated machinery).

• Livestock Production: Livestock drought mitigation strategies need to be prioritized in areas that suffered most from the drought and where livestock makes the most significant contribution to households’ livelihoods. The mitigation strategies could include (i) Provision of subsidised livestock feeds and animal drugs; and (ii) Facilitating access to relief grazing.

• Income and Expenditure - Interventions that strengthen households’ economy and resilience are thus recommended to ensure households remain food and nutrition secure.

• Child Nutrition: In view of results showing high levels of stunting, Child Supplementary Feeding Programmes (CSFP) should be prioritised as a matter of urgency especially for districts with Global Acute Malnutrition above 5%. Livelihoods and food security interventions coupled with nutrition education programmes should be implemented alongside emergency response programmes to ensure consumption of diverse and micronutrient rich foods while simultaneously building community resilience to future shocks that compromise household food and nutrition security. There is need for a robust and real-time community based surveillance system to constantly monitor the tenuous nutritional situation especially as the season progresses towards the hunger or lean months of the year.

• Enhanced Food Access: It is recommended that Government consider duty free for the import of household’s food requirements as per Zimstat’s food basket.

• Shocks and Hazards - Government and development partners should consider broadening social protection and resilience building programmes in order to strengthen absorptive and adaptive capacities of at-risk communities through scaling up of programmes such as Harmonised Social Cash transfers and Productive Community Works targeting both labour and non-labour constrained households.

Situation Monitoring

The economic situation will be a key aspect to monitor as it is likely to influence the evolution of prices which will influence households’ access to food on the market. Thus its improvement and or deterioration will likely lead to changes in the projected outlook. Specific indicators and risk factors to monitor are:

• Inflation

• Prices of basic food commodities and inputs

• Livestock prices and terms of trade

• Labour opportunities

• Remittances

• Food stocks (national and household)

• Rainfall patterns and water availability

• Crop pests and animal diseases

• Acute Malnutrition Admissions

Update of Activities

Given uncertainties regarding several assumptions established for the projected analysis, an update of the projection analysis may be required in a few months time in order to take into account the latest developments related to the economic situation (e.g. inflation) and/or environmental patterns and forecast (e.g. rainfall performance).


IPC Analysis Partners:

PROCESS, METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS

Process and Methodology What is the IPC and IPC Acute Food Insecurity?

The IPC is a set of tools and procedures to classify the severity and characteristics of acute food and nutrition crises as well as chronic food insecurity based on international standards. The IPC consists of four mutually reinforcing functions, each with a set of specific protocols (tools and procedures). The core IPC parameters include consensus building, convergence of evidence, accountability, transparency and comparability. The IPC analysis aims at informing emergency response as well as medium and long-term food security policy and programming.

For the IPC, Acute Food Insecurity is defined as any manifestation of food insecurity found in a specified area at a specific point in time of a severity that threatens lives or livelihoods, or both, regardless of the causes, context or duration. It is highly susceptible to change and can occur and manifest in a population within a short amount of time, as a result of sudden changes or shocks that negatively impact on the determinants of food insecurity.

Contact for further InformationMavhunga Yvonne IPC Coordinator [email protected]

IPC Global Support Unit www.ipcinfo.org

This analysis has been conducted under the patronage of the Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee. It has benefited from the technical and financial support of the Government of Zimbabwe, IPC GSU, FAO, WFP,UNDP-ZRBF.

Classification of food insecurity and malnutrition was conducted using the IPC protocols, which are developed and implemented worldwide by the IPC Global Partnership - Action Against Hunger, CARE, CILSS, EC-JRC , FAO, FEWSNET, Global Food Security Cluster, Global Nutrition Cluster, IGAD, Oxfam, PROGRESAN-SICA, SADC, Save the Children, UNICEF and WFP.

• The IPC acute analysis was led by the Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZIMVAC), in close collaboration with the IPC Global Support Unit and country partners, USAID, UNDP, WFP, FAO and FEWSNET.

• Humanitarian food assistance was taken into account for the current analysis. Data from the Food Security Cluster (April to June) and from Ministry of Social Welfare was used and applied to estimate whether 25% or more of the households in targeted districts met 25%- 50%; or over 50% of their calorific needs from the assistance. Sharing of aid, sale (for cash); duplication of beneficiaries; aid diversion or resale etc. was considered in this analysis.

• Key partners formed a core team and provided technical support for the data preparation and the analysis.

• The IPC Acute analysis process started with the IPC Level 1 training and concluded with 5 days of analysis, which took place from 22 to 26 June.

• The analysis was attended by 51 participants from Government, NGOs, UN agencies and Donors.

• Analysts were grouped into provincial teams to undertake the analysis for each district in that respective province.

• IPC district Phase classifications were vetted in plenary and consensus based.

Limitations of the Analysis

• The main limitation was the food aid data which is currently fragmented and is being implemented by different stakeholders. There is no consolidated database to accurately indicate the levels of support in each district.

• Due to the current prevailing economic situation, there will be a need for revisiting the projections in the case of major economic shifts.

Sources

• ZimVAC 2019 Rural Livelihoods Assessment

• Second Round Crop and Livestock Assessment 2018/2019 season

• FEWSNET USGS CHIRPS rainfall 2019/20 seasonal forecast

• OCHA Idai Sitreps

• IRC Rapid Livelihoods Assessment: Chimanimani & Chipinge districts, 2019.

• Zimstats PICES, 2017

• FEWSNET Price Projections

• ZimVAC 2019 Lean Season Assessment

• Ministry of Health and NAC Zimbabwe HIV/AIDS estimates report 2018

• 2018 Zimbabwe National Nutrition Survey

• Zimstats Consumer Price Index 2018/19

• ZimVac historical data on IPC indicators, 2012-2019

FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

FEWS NET


ANNEX 1: CURRENT IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY FOR JUNE -SEPT 2019

Population Table by District

Province Disctrict Total # (PP)

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Area Phase

Phase 3 and higher

# % # % # % # % # % # %

Manicaland

Buhera 261 004 78 301 30 78 301 30 78 301 30 26 100 10 0 0 3 104 401 40

Chimanimani 143 242 71 621 50 42 973 30 21 486 15 7162 5 0 0 3 28 648 20

Chipinge 317 226 142 752 45 111 029 35 47 584 15 1 5861 5 0 0 3 63 445 20

Makoni 289 094 159 002 55 72 274 25 43 364 15 14 455 5 0 0 3 57 818 20

Mutare 278 250 125 213 45 69 563 25 69 563 25 13 913 5 0 0 3 83 475 30

Mutasa 179 128 89 564 50 35 826 20 26 869 15 8 956 5 0 0 3 35 825 20

Nyanga 134 387 53 755 40 47 035 35 26 877 20 6 719 5 0 0 3 33 596 25

Mashonaland Central

Bindura 132 922 59 815 45 39 877 30 26 584 20 6 646 5 0 0 3 33 230 25

Centenary 131 672 85 587 65 26 334 20 13 167 10 6 584 5 0 0 3 19 750 15

Guruve 247 812 136 297 55 37 172 15 49 562 20 24 781 10 0 0 2 74 343 30

Mazowe 87 448 21 862 25 26 234 30 30 607 35 8 745 10 0 0 3 39 351 45

Mbire 225 812 90 325 40 45 162 20 67 744 30 22 581 10 0 0 3 90 324 40

Mountdarwin 130 345 65 173 50 26 069 20 26 069 20 13 035 10 0 0 3 39 103 30

Rushinga 78 595 23 579 30 23 579 30 23 579 30 7 860 10 0 0 3 31 438 40

Shamva 131 257 72 191 55 19 689 15 19 689 15 19 689 15 0 0 3 39 377 30

Mashonaland East

Chikomba 127 541 81 626 64 31 885 25 10 203 8 3 826 3 0 0 2 14 029 11

Goromonzi 238 828 179 121 75 47 766 20 7 165 3 4 777 2 0 0 2 11 941 5

Hwedza 75 334 45 200 60 15 820 21 7 533 10 6 780 9 0 0 2 14 313 19

Marondera 124 182 72 026 58 37 255 30 12 418 10 2 484 2 0 0 2 14 901 12

Mudzi 141 450 28 290 20 70 725 50 32 534 23 9 902 7 0 0 3 42 435 30

Murehwa 211 887 148 321 70 52 972 25 8 475 4 2 119 1 0 0 2 10 594 5

Mutoko 155 117 85 314 55 23 268 15 31 023 20 15 512 10 0 0 2 46 535 30

Seke 106 955 79 147 74 10 696 10 13 904 13 3 209 3 0 0 2 17 112 16

Uzumbamarambapfungwe 119 539 60 965 51 21 517 18 27 494 23 9 563 8 0 0 3 37 057 31

Mashonaland West

Chegutu 163 108 97 865 60 32 622 20 24 466 15 8 155 5 0 0 3 32 621 20

Hurungwe 349 449 139 780 40 104 835 30 69 890 20 34 945 10 0 0 3 104 834 30

Kariba 43 914 8 783 20 13 174 30 15 370 35 6 587 15 0 0 3 21 957 50

Makonde 16 2986 89 642 55 48 896 30 16 299 10 8 149 5 0 0 2 24 447 15

Mhondoro-ngezi 110 761 38 766 35 33 228 30 27 690 25 11 076 10 0 0 3 38 766 35

Sanyati 11 9842 47 937 40 35 953 30 23 968 20 11 984 10 0 0 3 35 952 30

Zvimba 27 9201 15 3561 55 69 800 25 41 880 15 13 960 5 0 0 3 55 840 20

Masvingo

Bikita 172 344 101 683 59 48 256 28 17 234 10 5 170 3 0 0 2 22 404 13

Chiredzi 292 724 152 216 52 81 963 28 29 272 10 29 272 10 0 0 3 58 544 20

Chivi 176 264 65 218 37 49 354 28 29 965 17 31 728 18 0 0 3 61 692 35

Gutu 215 577 142 281 66 53 894 25 12 935 6 6 467 3 0 0 2 19 401 9

Masvingo 224 209 123 315 55 56 052 25 33 631 15 11 210 5 0 0 3 44 841 20

Mwenezi 177266 65588 37 35453 20 44317 25 31908 18 0 0 3 76 224 43

Zaka 192 455 76 982 40 67 359 35 38 491 20 9 623 5 0 0 3 48 113 25


Population Table (continued)

Province District Total # (PP)


Phase 3 and higher

# % # % # % # % # % # %

Matabeleland North

Binga 147 649 66 442 45 51 677 35 22 147 15 7 382 5 0 0 3 29 529 20

Bubi 65 690 32 845 50 19 707 30 6 569 10 6 569 10 0 0 3 13 138 20

Hwange 66 525 33 263 50 16 631 25 13 305 20 3 326 5 0 0 3 16 631 25

Lupane 106 323 58 478 55 21 265 20 21 265 20 5 316 5 0 0 3 26 580 25

Nkayi 115 849 57 925 50 34 755 30 17 377 15 5 792 5 0 0 3 23 169 20

Tsholotsho 122 201 54 990 45 36 660 30 18 330 15 12 220 10 0 0 3 30 550 25

Umguza 95 205 47 603 50 19 041 20 23 801 25 4 760 5 0 0 3 28 561 30

Matabeleland South

Beitbridge 85 010 34 004 40 25 503 30 21 253 25 4 251 5 0 0 3 25 503 30

Bulilima 96 132 38 453 40 38 453 40 14 420 15 4 807 5 0 0 3 19 226 20

Gwanda 122 901 55 305 45 43 015 35 18 435 15 6 145 5 0 0 3 24 580 20

Insiza 106 506 47 928 45 37 277 35 15 976 15 5 325 5 0 0 3 21 301 20

Mangwe 70 292 31 631 45 21 088 30 14 058 20 3 515 5 0 0 3 17 573 25

Matobo 99 719 49 860 50 34 902 35 9 972 10 49 86 5 0 0 2 14 957 15

Umzingwane 66 865 30 089 45 20 060 30 13 373 20 3 343 5 0 0 3 16 716 25

Midlands

Chirumhanzu 85 294 55 441 65 17 059 20 12 794 15 0 0 0 0 2 12 794 15

Gokwenorth 255 138 51 028 20 38 271 15 127 569 50 38 271 15 0 0 3 165 839 65

Gokwesouth 324 806 194 884 60 64 961 20 48 721 15 16 240 5 0 0 3 64 961 20

Gweru 97 454 53 600 55 24 364 25 14 618 15 4 873 5 0 0 3 19 490 20

Kwekwe 185 476 83 464 45 64 917 35 27 821 15 9 274 5 0 0 3 37 095 20

Mberengwa 197 185 88 733 45 69 015 35 39 437 20 0 0 0 0 3 39 437 20

Shurugwi 82 342 41 171 50 28 820 35 12 351 15 0 0 0 0 2 12 351 15

Zvishavane 76 974 42 336 55 19 244 25 15 395 20 0 0 0 0 3 15 394 20

Grand Total 9 420 663 4 607 280 49 2 486 371 26 1 671 467 18 623 138 7 0 0 2 294 605 25


ANNEX2: PROJECTED IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY FOR OCT - DEC 2019

Population Table by District



Phase 3 and higher

# % # % # % # % # % # %

Manicaland

Buhera 26 1004 52 201 20 65 251 25 91 351 35 52 201 20 0 0 4 143 552 55

Chimanimani 143 242 35 811 25 50 135 35 42 973 30 14 324 10 0 0 3 57 297 40

Chipinge 317 226 63 445 20 95 168 30 126 890 40 31 723 10 0 0 3 158 613 50

Makoni 289 094 115 638 40 101 183 35 57 819 20 1 4455 5 0 0 3 72 274 25

Mutare 278 250 83 475 30 69 563 25 111 300 40 13 913 5 0 0 3 125 213 45

Mutasa 179 128 62 695 35 62 695 35 44 782 25 8 956 5 0 0 3 53 738 30

Nyanga 134 387 26 877 20 67 194 50 33 597 25 6 719 5 0 0 3 40 316 30

Mashonaland Central

Bindura 132 922 53 169 40 33 231 25 33 231 25 13 292 10 0 0 3 46 523 35

Centenary 131 672 65 836 50 32 918 25 19 751 15 13 167 10 0 0 3 32 918 25

Guruve 247 812 111 515 45 49 562 20 61 953 25 24 781 10 0 0 3 86 734 35

Mazowe 87 448 17 490 20 21 862 25 30 607 35 17 490 20 0 0 3 48 096 55

Mbire 225 812 79 034 35 33 872 15 79 034 35 33 872 15 0 0 4 112 906 50

Mountdarwin 130 345 45 621 35 26 069 20 39 104 30 19 552 15 0 0 3 58 655 45

Rushinga 78 595 15 719 20 23 579 30 27 508 35 11 789 15 0 0 3 39 298 50

Shamva 131 257 49 878 38 32 814 25 26 251 20 22 314 17 0 0 3 48 565 37

Mashonaland East

Chikomba 127 541 51 016 40 51 016 40 12 754 10 12 754 10 0 0 3 25 508 20

Goromonzi 238 828 95 531 40 59 707 25 47 766 20 35 824 15 0 0 3 83 590 35

Hwedza 75 334 30 134 40 22 600 30 15 067 20 7 533 10 0 0 3 22 600 30

Marondera 124 182 62 091 50 37 255 30 18 627 15 6 209 5 0 0 3 24 836 20

Mudzi 141 450 42 435 30 28 290 20 42 435 30 28 290 20 0 0 4 70 725 50

Murehwa 211 887 84 755 40 78 398 37 31 783 15 16 951 8 0 0 3 48 734 23

Mutoko 155 117 85 314 55 38 779 25 23 268 15 7 756 5 0 0 3 31 023 20

Seke 106 955 44 921 42 37 434 35 21 391 20 3 209 3 0 0 3 24 600 23

Uzumbamarambapfungwe 119 539 23 908 20 35 862 30 29 885 25 29 885 25 0 0 4 59 770 50

Mashonaland West

Chegutu 163 108 32 622 20 57 088 35 65 243 40 8 155 5 0 0 3 73 399 45

Hurungwe 349 449 122 307 35 87 362 25 87 362 25 52 417 15 0 0 3 139 780 40

Kariba 43 914 6 587 15 10 979 25 17 566 40 8 783 20 0 0 4 26 348 60

Makonde 162986 65 194 40 57 045 35 24 448 15 16 299 10 0 0 3 40 747 25

Mhondoro-ngezi 110 761 33 228 30 27 690 25 33 228 30 16 614 15 0 0 3 49 842 45

Sanyati 119 842 23 968 20 29 961 25 47 937 40 17 976 15 0 0 3 65 913 55

Zvimba 279 201 111 680 40 83 760 30 55 840 20 27 920 10 0 0 3 83 760 30

Masvingo

Bikita 172 344 98 236 57 39 639 23 25 852 15 8 617 5 0 0 3 34 469 20

Chiredzi 292 724 117 090 40 58 545 20 73 181 25 43 909 15 0 0 3 117 090 40

Chivi 176 264 44 066 25 52 879 30 35 253 20 44 066 25 0 0 4 79 319 45

Gutu 215 577 101 321 47 64 673 30 32 337 15 17 246 8 0 0 3 49 583 23

Masvingo 224 209 78 473 35 67 263 30 56 052 25 22 421 10 0 0 3 78 473 35

Mwenezi 177 266 70 906 40 26 590 15 35 453 20 44 317 25 0 0 4 79 770 45

Zaka 192 455 48 114 25 76 982 40 48 114 25 19 246 10 0 0 3 67 359 35


Population Table (continued)



Phase 3 and higher

# % # % # % # % # % # %

Matabeleland North

Binga 147 649 51677 35 36 912 25 29 530 20 29 530 20 0 0 4 59 060 40

Bubi 65 690 26 276 40 22 992 35 9 854 15 6 569 10 0 0 3 16 423 25

Hwange 66 525 19 958 30 16 631 25 19 958 30 9 979 15 0 0 3 29 936 45

Lupane 106 323 42 529 40 21 265 20 26 581 25 15 948 15 0 0 3 42 529 40

Nkayi 115 849 23 170 20 40 547 35 34 755 30 17 377 15 0 0 3 52 132 45

Tsholotsho 122 201 54 990 45 36 660 30 18 330 15 12 220 10 0 0 3 30 550 25

Umguza 95 205 28 562 30 23 801 25 28 562 30 14 281 15 0 0 3 42 842 45

Matabeleland South

Beitbridge 85 010 21 253 25 29 754 35 25 503 30 8 501 10 0 0 3 34 004 40

Bulilima 96 132 28 840 30 38 453 40 19 226 20 9 613 10 0 0 3 28 840 30

Gwanda 122 901 43 015 35 36 870 30 30 725 25 12 290 10 0 0 3 43 015 35

Insiza 106 506 37 277 35 31 952 30 26 627 25 10 651 10 0 0 3 37 277 35

Mangwe 70 292 21 088 30 17 573 25 24 602 35 7 029 10 0 0 3 31 631 45

Matobo 99 719 39 888 40 24 930 25 19 944 20 14 958 15 0 0 3 34 902 35

Umzingwane 66 865 23 403 35 20 060 30 16 716 25 6 687 10 0 0 3 23 403 35

Midlands

Chirumhanzu 85 294 38 382 45 29 853 35 17 059 20 0 0 0 0 3 17 059 20

Gokwenorth 255 138 38 271 15 51 028 20 114 812 45 51 028 20 0 0 4 165 840 65

Gokwesouth 324 806 97 442 30 81 202 25 113 682 35 32 481 10 0 0 3 146 163 45

Gweru 97 454 24 364 25 34 109 35 29 236 30 9 745 10 0 0 3 38 982 40

Kwekwe 185 476 55 643 30 64 917 35 55 643 30 9 274 5 0 0 3 64 917 35

Mberengwa 197 185 39 437 20 69 015 35 59 156 30 29 578 15 0 0 3 88 733 45

Shurugwi 82 342 32 937 40 32 937 40 16 468 20 0 0 0 0 3 16 468 20

Zvishavane 76 974 19 244 25 23 092 30 30 790 40 3 849 5 0 0 3 34 638 45

Grand Total 9 420 663 3 159 947 34 2 678 585 28 2 474 756 26 1 105 458 12 0 0 3 580 214 38

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