Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1293772 A 2020 VISION: AN INTEGRATED POLICY REFORM FOR AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT IN HANOI, VIET NAM Sarath Guttikunda 1 , Nguyen Quoc Tuan 2 , Phan Quynh Nhu 3 , Duong Hong Son 4 , and Luu Duc Cuong 5 1 Affiliate Assistant Research Professor, Desert Research Institute, Reno USA ([email protected]) 2 Vice Director, Hanoi Department of Natural Resources, Environment, and Housing (DONREH), 3 Deputy Project Manager, Swiss-Vietnamese Clean Air Program Hanoi Vietnam ([email protected]) 4 Director, Center for Environmental Research, Vietnam, 5 Director, Centre for Research and Planning on Urban and Rural Environment, Vietnam Abstract Within the frame of the National Strategy for Environmental Protection 2010/ 2020 for Vietnam an Air Quality Management (AQM) action plan was developed for Hanoi. The work was carried out in cooperation with Hanoi DONREH and the Swiss-Vietnamese Clean Air Program, a project under a bilateral agreement of the two governments. The plan represents a systematic and integral approach, which provides the base for a comprehensive AQM with a long-term view. It systematically addresses the major air quality concerns in Hanoi, in particular e.g. the dust and micro-dust problem, direct vehicular emissions, pollution from the industry, and growing small and medium enterprise’s in the residential areas. The action plan includes a sound situation analysis (based on reliable data), defines air quality/emission targets and prioritizes a set of feasible measures to achieve targets. Implementation of the AQM plan is expected to offer “co-benefits”, as the proposed measures will not only result in the reduction of air pollution in Hanoi and associated health risks, but also reduce substantial green house gas emissions from the transport and industrial sectors and reduce environmental damage costs. The SIM-air (Simple Interactive Model) analytical tool, was developed to support planning a comprehensive and systematic knowledge base, a shared-vision among the stakeholders involved, for informed decision making. Keywords: Vietnam, Hanoi, AQM, SIM-air, Co-benefits. 1. City of Hanoi, Vietnam Hanoi, the capital city of Vietnam, located on the right bank of the Red River. Hanoi is located at 21°2' N, 105°51' E covering 921 sq. km. Figure 1 presents the geographical location of the city and road density of Hanoi. The northern bank covers 71% of the land for 31% of the population and southern bank is more densely populated with 29% of land for 69% of the population (Hanoi, 2006). Hanoi's population is estimated at 3.2 million in 2005 and is constantly growing, a reflection of the fact that the city is both a major metropolitan area of Northern Vietnam, and also the country's political centre. This population growth also puts a lot of pressure on the limited infrastructure and environment, some of which is antiquated and dates back to the early 20th century.
Transcript
Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1293772
A 2020 VISION: AN INTEGRATED POLICY REFORM FOR AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT IN HANOI, VIET NAM
Sarath Guttikunda1, Nguyen Quoc Tuan2, Phan Quynh Nhu3, Duong Hong Son4, and
Luu Duc Cuong5 1Affiliate Assistant Research Professor, Desert Research Institute, Reno USA ([email protected])
2Vice Director, Hanoi Department of Natural Resources, Environment, and Housing (DONREH), 3Deputy Project Manager, Swiss-Vietnamese Clean Air Program Hanoi Vietnam ([email protected])
4Director, Center for Environmental Research, Vietnam, 5Director, Centre for Research and Planning on Urban and Rural Environment, Vietnam
Abstract Within the frame of the National Strategy for Environmental Protection 2010/ 2020 for Vietnam an Air Quality Management (AQM) action plan was developed for Hanoi. The work was carried out in cooperation with Hanoi DONREH and the Swiss-Vietnamese Clean Air Program, a project under a bilateral agreement of the two governments. The plan represents a systematic and integral approach, which provides the base for a comprehensive AQM with a long-term view. It systematically addresses the major air quality concerns in Hanoi, in particular e.g. the dust and micro-dust problem, direct vehicular emissions, pollution from the industry, and growing small and medium enterprise’s in the residential areas. The action plan includes a sound situation analysis (based on reliable data), defines air quality/emission targets and prioritizes a set of feasible measures to achieve targets. Implementation of the AQM plan is expected to offer “co-benefits”, as the proposed measures will not only result in the reduction of air pollution in Hanoi and associated health risks, but also reduce substantial green house gas emissions from the transport and industrial sectors and reduce environmental damage costs. The SIM-air (Simple Interactive Model) analytical tool, was developed to support planning a comprehensive and systematic knowledge base, a shared-vision among the stakeholders involved, for informed decision making. Keywords: Vietnam, Hanoi, AQM, SIM-air, Co-benefits.
1. City of Hanoi, Vietnam Hanoi, the capital city of Vietnam, located on the right bank of the Red River. Hanoi is located at 21°2' N, 105°51' E covering 921 sq. km. Figure 1 presents the geographical location of the city and road density of Hanoi. The northern bank covers 71% of the land for 31% of the population and southern bank is more densely populated with 29% of land for 69% of the population (Hanoi, 2006). Hanoi's population is estimated at 3.2 million in 2005 and is constantly growing, a reflection of the fact that the city is both a major metropolitan area of Northern Vietnam, and also the country's political centre. This population growth also puts a lot of pressure on the limited infrastructure and environment, some of which is antiquated and dates back to the early 20th century.
Sarath G
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Submitted as proceedings for 5th Annual Better Air Quality Conference for Asian Cities, November 2008, Bangkok, Thailand. http://www.baq2008.org
Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1293772
Figure 1: Geographical location of Hanoi and Hanoi road density in km/km2 While the institutional and legal resources for environmental protection are in place, the ambient air quality in Hanoi is fast degrading under the pressure of surging population numbers (with an expected increase of 1.5 - 2 million by 2020), transportation demand (with an increase of 30 times over the period of 1995 to 2005 in motorcycle traffic and passenger cars), and economy growth (with 11.2% increase in GDP contributed by 80% from production industries and construction in 2005). As with many developing country cities, the emissions from transport and industrial sector are dominant air pollution sources. Hanoi’ authority has recognized the threats of degrading ambient air quality. The study ”Urban Air pollution in Asian sities” jointly conducted by the Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities (CAI-Asia), Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) grouped Hanoi among cities with limited management capacity (Schwela et. al., 2006). This capacity of AQM needs immediate improvement and the efforts to reduce local emissions need strengthening. Urban AQM is becoming increasingly important in a sustainable growth context. Almost all the megacities of today (e.g., Bangkok, Beijing, Mumbai, Tokyo, and Manila in Asia) and potential megacities of tomorrow (e.g., Xian, Pune, and Hanoi) in the developing world suffer from urban air pollution and its environmental health consequences. It is difficult for city managers to address these problems in a systematic manner given a history of limited capacity, institutional fragmentation, poor availability and quality of data, lack of adequate modeling tools, poor public participation and a bewildering array of management options. In October, 2007, Swiss Vietnam Clean Air Program (SVCAP) with the relevant local and national stakeholders organized a preliminary workshop on AQM in Hanoi. The sessions also included a training session on key components of AQM and necessary steps required to develop an AQM action plan for Hanoi. Decision makers stated that the data requirements, array of options, and experiences from cities are plenty and confusing at times and there was not sufficient information or knowledge base to plan local responses even though all agreed on the seriousness of the air pollution in Hanoi and necessity to act. Development planners agreed on a consensus to prepare a consolidated set of guidelines, which would enable them to develop a baseline to compare the widely varying options, for example, bus rapid transport and promoting public transport at a large scale, stricter regulations for motorcycles, and improved energy efficiency in industrial and domestic sectors, which will enable to choose between investment projects with largest cost effectiveness to air quality in Hanoi. The objective of this study (funded and coordinated by SVCAP) is to shed some light on the following set of issues:
• What is likely to be the trend in air pollution levels – under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in Hanoi in 2010 and up to 2020?
• What are the likely associated levels of emissions that could have damaging consequences at the local level (especially for PM)?
Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1293772
• What domestic interventions will make a significant difference in the air quality relative to BAU scenario?
The results from this study are expected to be a key source of information for those involved in air quality management and other environmental assessment activities relating to Hanoi, so that the management options can be evaluated from appropriate economic, social and environmental perspectives.
2. AQM in Hanoi
2.1 Air Quality Monitoring In Hanoi, rapid urbanization combined with growing demand for energy resources and exponential growth in vehicular fleet are contributing to deteriorating air quality. Adequate information on status of air quality is an essential prerequisite for any rational and objective AQM program, and for formulating action plans. The monitoring of air quality in Hanoi started in the early 1990s. To that effect, investment on air quality monitoring networks in Hanoi has been considerably higher than the nationally averaged level. Seven of the 20 automated stations (15 stationary and 5 mobile ones) in the country are located in Hanoi. Table 1 present details on type, location, and operating agency for each of the stations. Additionally, a new mobile station for research purposes will be start operations in early 2008. Table 1: Overview of air quality monitoring stations in Hanoi
No Type Year Investor Operator Pollutants Measured
1 ACM and Fixed 1999-00 MONRE CEETIA SO2, NO, NO2, NOx, O3, CO, 2 ACM and Fixed 2001 MONRE CTET SO2, NO, NO2, NOx, O3, CO, and dust
3 ACM and Fixed 2002 MONRE DONREH SO2, NO, NO2, NOx, O3, CO, and dust
4 ACM and Fixed 1999-00 MONRE DONREH SO2, NO, NO2, NOx, O3, CO, and dust
5 ACM and Fixed 2002 MONRE INHEM SO2, NO, NO2, NOx, O3, CO, TSP, PM10, CH4, NMHC, and NH3
6 CM and Mobile 2000 MONRE CEETIA SO2, NO, NO2, NOx, O3, CO, and dust
7 CM and Mobile 2004 MOC CTA SO2, NO, NO2, NH3, O3, CO, NMHC, CH4, TSP, and PM10
ACM = Automatic Continuous Monitoring; CM = Continuous Monitoring; MONRE = Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment; CEETIA = Center for Environmental Engineering of Towns and Industrial Areas; CTET = Center for Environmental Technology Treatment; DONREH = Department of Natural Resources, Environment and Housing; MOC = Ministry of Construction; INHEM = Institute for Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment; CTA = Centre for Tropical Architecture; SO2 = Sulfur dioxide; NO = Nitrogen oxide; NO2 = Nitrogen dioxide; NOx = Nitrogen oxides; O3 = Ozone; CO = Carbon monoxide; TSP = total suspended particulates; CH4 = Methane; NMHC = Non-Methane Hydrocarbons; and NH3 = Ammonia Source: CAI-Asia and ADB, 2006.
Most recently, series of air quality monitoring studies conducted in Hanoi.
• MONRE - Collected hourly concentration of pollutants in the air in 2003 and estimated of traffic emission with resolution of 1 km x 1 km (presented in Figure 1)
• JICA - Monitored 24 hour concentration of pollutant in the air at traffic intersections during August, 2005
• SVCAP – Operated passive sampler network for January and February, 2007 • DONREH – Monitored hourly pollutant concentrations at urban centers, industrial areas, and
streets during several months of 2006 and 2007 • CENMA – Conducted monitoring from March to June 2007 at 6 industrial areas and 13 urban
areas
Details of each of the campaign are described in SVCAP, 2008. Table 2 summarizes results from the CEETIA station. Currently, there is no central network or authority connecting and consolidating data from all stations. The fact that stations are operated by different agencies and data collected in various formats makes it difficult to present and review a comprehensive assessment of the air quality. Table 2: Annual average concentration at CEETIA location in Hanoi (μg/m3)
Pollutant Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Mean 2,456 2,209 2,122 2,468 2,520 CO Max 14,101 11,060 8,737 12,391 8,750 Mean 6 9 16 29 33 NO2 Max 23 117 160 173 90 Mean 6 8 22 38 38 SO2 Max 82 150 261 208 142 Mean 155 126 122 90 112 PM10 Max 970 1000 997 777 589 Mean 14 16 21 22 19 O3 Max 57 75 86 48 42
Soucrce: CAI-Asia and ADB, 2006.
2.2 Sources of Air Pollution Emissions come from a variety of sources such as power plants, industries, transport, biomass and waste burning, domestic and commercial fuel burning, resuspension of the road and construction dust, etc., and it is essential to define the type of emission source in order to measure the impacts of air pollution. The major sources of air pollution include the combustion of fuels for electricity generation, transportation, industries, space heating, and cooking. Besides primary emissions of PM, SO2, NOx, and HCs, chemical reactions in the atmosphere produce secondary pollutants such as ozone which is responsible for photochemical smog and haze. Chemical transformation is also responsible for a significant portion of ambient PM in the form of sulfates and nitrates from SO2 and NOx emissions respectively.
Table 3: Vehicular population in Hanoi in 2005
Vehicle type Fuel base No. of vehicles % Total 2 & 3 Wheelers Petrol 1,494,800 89.7
Cars (small & medium) Petrol 120,000 7.20 Buses Petrol 7,000 0.42 Trucks Petrol 100 0.01
In Hanoi, motor vehicular activity is a major source of emissions, causing both primary and secondary pollution. Most of the people have access to motor vehicles where private transport accounts for ~97% of passenger trips. It is estimated that a total of 1.6 million vehicles are registered in Hanoi in 2005. Table 3 presents share of motor vehicles in use in Hanoi in 2005. Ninety percent of the vehicle fleet is dominated by motorcycles. Accordingly, the modal share of motorcycle among the mechanized trips is high at ~60 percent. In 2001 less than 4% of trips were made by bus, the only form of public transport (except taxis). The poor still depend on bicycles and non-motorized modes which account for ~25% passenger trips. According to the Transport Police Department of Hanoi, registered motorcycles in Hanoi are increasing at ~13,5% per year. Car ownership is relatively low, but increasing at ~10% a year. High population density and new construction in built-up areas have congested the city and demanding more space to sustain the growing vehicle use at levels significantly higher than the present. Underdevelopment of public transportation is one of the main reasons of rapid increase in motorcycle population and private cars. Estimates for 2006/07 puts total vehicular fleet at ~2 million, which is a ~15% increase per year since 2005.
Besides the direct vehicular exhaust emissions, resuspension of the fugitive dust on the roads is a constant source of PM. Due to dry conditions, constant vehicular activity, wear and tear of tires, high construction activities, and dusty roads, the resus A fair amount of PM, SO2, NOx, and CO2 emissions come from coal and oil combustion in the industries; especially from the brick industry in the outskirts of the city, which is known to burn biomass such as rice husk. In the city limits, tanning and textiles are dominant industrial types. Domestic emissions come from using the coal for cooking and partly heating. In the central Hanoi, use of coal is limited in the domestic and commercial (restaurants and roadside establishments) sectors. However, outside the city, contribution of coal is high. According to DONREH, there are at least 12,000 such kiosks using 6 kg/day of coal on average for cooking purposes. Of the domestic sector, it is estimated that 5% of the households use coal for cooling at 2kg/day average. Such usage also leads to indoor air pollution, which is not covered in this report. Hanoi 30 Apr 03, 10 Oct 04
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Figure 2: Source apportionment results for Hanoi. Left Panel: Cohen et al., 2006 using back trajectories; Right Panel: Hein et al., 2004 using receptor modeling During the harvest season, the burning of the field residue is a major source of pollution following the long range transport (LRT) of the pollutants. A series of source apportionment studies performed by Hien et al., (2004) and Cohen et al. (2006), estimate ~40% of ambient PM originates outside the city. These LRT sources are both of local and regional scale - for example, a combination of biomass burning, thousands of small brick kilns north of the city and contribution of regional LRT due to proximity to China and Thailand. Of all the sources, the long range transport between regions and nations is hard to investigate and estimate. Figure 2 presents summary of back trajectory analysis from Cohen et al. (2006) calculated for every four hours of the sampling period and results based on receptor modeling from Hien et al. (2004). Cohen et al., concluded that the secondary sulfur for most parts has its origin in China and secondary sulfur accounted for ~20% of the measured PM10 sample. Similarly, Hien et al., concluded that for the fine (PM2.5) fraction, contribution of LRT is ~45% of the local air pollution in Hanoi. In city, major air pollution sources remain the vehicular exhaust, fugitive dust, and coal from industrial and domestic use. Among the miscellaneous sources, city of Hanoi also operates six incinerators with varying capacities and feed ranges from domestic garbage (the largest), construction, industrial, medical, and agro waste. Due to cities proximity to the sea, sea salt is a common occurrence in the fine fraction, as can be seen in Figure 2.
2.3 Status of AQM Since 2000, AQM within Hanoi city has picked up momentum followed by a series of air quality monitoring studies by various agencies. Besides the air quality monitoring studies, there are several short term
studies incorporated in regional planning in the Master study on major economic region. Research studies also focused on environmental management, legal framework and environmental monitoring. Numerous decisions on emission reduction were passed for Vietnam in general, and for Hanoi, some of which are summarized in Table 4. There is no current system that reviews whether such policies and decisions have had any impact on the air quality of Hanoi or the country. Table 4: Legal decisions passed for air quality management in Vietnam and Hanoi
Title of Legal Texts
Contents Related to AQM Remarks
National Level Law on Environmental Protection
(2005 amended)
• Article 83 on Management and Control of Dust and Air Emission stipulates that all sources including establishments, industries, transportation means, construction activities must have air emission control equipment to meet environmental standards.
Decision No. 256/2003 issued by the Prime Minister on Approval of the National Environment Protection Strategy up to 2010 and vision to 2020
• By 2010, to improve the environmental quality in large cities including Ha Noi and by 2020, to achieve good air quality standards.
• 36 national prioritized programs/plans are to be implemented in order to concretize the set objectives of the national strategy, of which Program No. 23 is about ”Urban Air Quality Improvement”, administered by Ministry of Transport in coordination with relevant ministries and localities.
Decision No. 4121/2005 issued by the Minister of Transport on Approval of overall framework on implementing Urban Air Quality Imrpovement Program – the 23rd program within the National Environment Protection Strategy
• The overall goals are: Restrict air pollution in urban areas due to transportation, industry and construction operation. Gradually improve and raise urban air quality. Control air pollution caused by the mentioned activities, especially those caused by transportation
• Specific targets relating to Ha Noi include: - 2006: Trial application of emission reduction
technology and fuel saving for road vehicles - 2007: control and reduce dust amount to
40% and to 20% emission in comparison with 2005
- 2008: Control and decrease to 60% dust amount and to 40% emission in comparison with 2005; develop sustainable urban transportation systems
- 2009: control and limit to 80% dust amount and 60% emission in comparison with 2005
• 8 prioritized projects under this program are identified; all of which are directly related to Ha Noi.
8 prioritized projects are: 1) Comprehensive assessment of health impacts and economic lost caused by urban air pollution, 2) Completion of legislative documents and urban air pollution control norms, 3) Prepare and submit to the GoV the proposal on motorbike emission control in large cities, 4) Study and application of vehicle emission reduction technologies, fuel saving, and alternative fuels, 5) Sthengthen technical capacity, infrastructure, equipment and human resources to control, monitor and assess the emissions and noise caused by road vehicles in urban areas, 6) Application of integrated solutions to minimize dust content in Ha Noi and HCM City, 7) Improvement of urban air quality by decreasing industrial emissions, 8) Planning, organization and development of sustainable urban transportation systems
Decision No. 249/2005 issued by the Prime Minister on Roadmap of Implementation of Emission Standards for Road Vehicles
• Application of Euro2-equivalent standards • Starting 1 July 2006 for imported used vehicles
• Starting 1 July 2006 for all in-use vehicles in Ha Noi
• Starting 1 July 2007 for brand new vehicles
Decision No. 64/2003 issued by the Prime Minister
• 2007 target: Thorough treatment of 439 seriously environmentally polluted facilities among 4295 identified facilities
• Ha Noi has 16 out of 439 facilities that need to be thoroughly treated by the end
on Plan for Thorough Treatment of Seriously Environmentally Polluted Facilities
• 2012 target: Continue the treatment of 3856 remaining facilities
of 2007
Decision No. 79/2006 issued by the Prime Minister on the National Program for Saving and Efficient Use of Energy
• One of the overall goals during the period 2006-2015 is to reduce the energy amount used, contributing to environmental protection.
• Under the program, 6 topics and 11 national projects are identified, among which 2 topics and 3 projects are directly related to air pollution reduction
• Topic 4: Saving and efficient use of energy in the industrial sector
• Topic 6: Saving and efficient use of energy in the transport sector
National Environmental Standards
• TCVN 5937:2005 – Ambient Air Quality • TCVN 5938:2005 – Maximum Allowable
Concentration of a number of Hazardous Air Pollutants
• TCVN 5939:2005 – Industrial Air Emission for In-organic Matters including Dust
• TCVN 5940:2005 - Industrial Air Emission for Organic Matters
• TCVN 6438:2005 – Air Emission for Vehicles (Euro2 equivalent)
Ha Noi City Level
Dust Reduction Program in Construction Field issued in 2005 by Hanoi People’s Committee
• Requiring individuals and organizations involved in construction and waste disposal activities to ensure that the transport of construction materials does not cause dust pollution
• Construction sites should be covered • Road washing to prevent dust pollution
Hanoi Action Plan for Environment Protection up to 2010 and vision to 2020 issued by Hanoi People’s Committee
• Program No. 3 on Air Quality Improvement administered by Ha Noi Department of Natural Resources, Environment and Housing
Decision numbered 02/2004/QĐ-UB dated 10th January, 2005 issued by Hanoi PPC
• Program recommends solutions for dust reduction in the construction sector within Hanoi area.
This decision has not seen any direct improvement on roads.
In Hanoi, the participation of public on AQM related activities is also limited at this point. The online information from monitoring stations was designed to be disseminated through mass media such as newspaper, radio, television, and internet. However, at present, the operation of electronic information boards on displaying real time pollutants levels at DONREH and Department of Transportation is very sporadic and unreliable. Among all the agencies conducting air quality monitoring, the network of stations run by MONRE is most synchronized since 2002 (updating hourly data from the stations to the database center in Hanoi). In general, non-governmental offices (NGOs), civil society, and advocacy groups are not common, not only for air quality related issues but most environmental sectors.
3. Air Pollution Analysis for Hanoi
3.1 Emissions Inventory A thorough and transparent bottom-up emission inventory of stationary and transportation combustion sources was compiled under this study. The emission inventory included ambient air pollutants such as PM10 (and PM2.5), SO2, and NOx for all combustion sources operating within the Hanoi city area for year 2005. This analysis was conducted using a simple calculation tool (SIM-air, 2008) utilizing activity levels from domestic, industrial, and transport sectors and emissions factors from studies across Asia, where local specific information is not available, and utilizing the information collected from various institutions and past studies such as NILU, 2006 and JICA, 2007. Table 5 presents a summary of total emissions estimated for Hanoi at 23.5 ktons for PM10, 4.4 ktons for SO2 and 27.3 ktons for NOx for year 2005. Major assumptions include the pollutant emission factors for vehicles taken from other studies in Asia, paved and unpaved road dust based on methodology presented in USEPA’s AP-42 report, and a survey based estimate of household and open burning in the city. For the industrial emissions, the numbers are extrapolated from the fuel consumption data provided by DONREH. NILU, 2006, estimated the total PM10 emissions to be in the range of 15 ktons, which did not include the fugitive dust sources and industrial incinerators. Table 5: Estimated emissions inventory for year 2005, tons/year Category PM10 SO2 NOx Households 1,099 358 307 Kiosks 1,261 263 220 Industries 6,665 1,407 1,919 Industrial Incinerators 338 Vehicular Activity 4,322 1,869 24,537 Paved Road Dust 3,120 Unpaved Road Dust 3,036 Brick Manufacturing 1,817 466 390 Garbage Burning 1,800 Medical Incinerators 37 Total 23,496 4,363 27,373
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Figure 3: Percent contribution of source sectors to annual emissions in 2005 In the transport sector, motorcycles and trucks dominate the PM10 emissions for two different reasons (see Figure 3.1). In case of motorcycles, it is the number of the vehicles on the road, while for trucks it is the use of diesel and aging fleet. Although individually, motorcycles comply with the emission norms, with ~1.5 million motorcycles on the road, contribute ~38% of the vehicular PM10 emissions. Similarly for the fugitive road dust, which is a function of vehicle kilometers traveled, and vehicle weight, motorcycles dominate the dust source contribution followed by large vehicles – buses and trucks.
Although quality assurance plans are in place to ensure the best results, there are uncertainties and limitations to consider when evaluating an emission inventory.
3.2 Dispersion Modeling & Impact Assessment For this study, we utilized ATMOS dispersion model (Calori, et al., 1999). Meteorological data was obtained from NCEP Reanalysis fields for the grid containing Hanoi. All the simulations were conducted using meteorological data for year 2005. Modeled annual average concentrations of PM10 are presented in Figure 3.3 along with measurements from JICA study in 2005. A background concentration of 12μg/m3 is assumed for this modeling exercise based on the monitoring data and source apportionment studies outlined in section 2.1. Because of varying dispersion characteristics, primary PM concentrations are calculated in two bins – fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM10 – PM2.5) fractions. The estimated annual average includes primary PM emissions and secondary PM due to SO2 and NOx emissions in the form on sulfates and nitrates. All the secondary sulfate and nitrate concentrations were assigned to PM2.5 fraction.
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3.3 Air Pollution Forecast for 2010 & 2020 Socio – economic development goal is to maintain steady economic growth and to improve the quality of life along with the cultural values. The infrastructure is vital for economic development. While technical and social infrastructure in Hanoi does not meet the societal demands, Hanoi’s population increase as well as immigration from other surrounding provinces is putting pressure on environment. Urban development and construction plan from now to 2020 has been approved by the Government. Hanoi People’s Committee has already completed the master plan for the districts. Table 6: Status and prediction of socio-economic targets (JICA, 2007)
Target Unit 2005 2010 2020
Total population thousand 3.183 3.650 4.500 Urban population thousand 1.990 3.050 3.950 GDP growth rate % 11,2 11,5 11,0 GDP/person US$ 1.350 2.350 6.000
Following the stakeholders’ workshop by SVCAP in October, 2007, utilizing the baseline developed for year 2005, emissions inventory analysis is extended for year 2010 to 2020 at five year intervals under business as usual (BAU) scenario. Details of the projections on emissions inventory and analysis for each of the sectors are presented in SVCAP, 2008. Annual average concentrations for 2010 and 2020 BAU scenario are presented in Figure 6.
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Figure 6: Modeled annual average PM10 concentrations in 2010 and 2020 under BAU The annual averages on total PM10 are expected to increase by at 50% in the urban parts of Hanoi (see right panels of Figure 6). The decrease in concentrations to the south of the river is primarily due to the movement of industries expected in 2010. Some of the industries are expected to relocate to the north, increasing the local contributions up to ~80%. Under the infrastructure projects, an increase in the paved roads is assumed for 2010 and subsequently 2020. An unabated emissions scenario for 2020 results in more than doubling of the ambient PM10 concentrations. Under the scenario, PM10 levels are expected to be average above 200μg/m3 against a WHO guideline of 80μg/m3. It is important to note these are concentrations under the assumption that NO new technologies or regulations will be put in place in the next decade of growth. Table 7: Change in number of health impacts in 2010 and 2020 compared to 2005 BAU
Health Endpoint Number of Cases Incurred Change from 2005 BAU 2010 2020 2010 2020 Mortality 1,260 2,824 688 2,252 Adult Chronic Bronchitis 2,174 4,872 1,187 3,885 Child Acute Bronchitis 19,580 43,889 10,690 34,999 Respiratory Hospital .Admission
Under BAU, for the estimated ambient levels presented in Figure 6, additional health impacts incurred compared to 2005 BAU are calculated and presented in Table 7. Due to density of the population to the of Red river, increase in the exposure area, and population exposed, the number of mortality cases is expected to approximately double by 2010 and more than quadruple by 2020. Details of the analysis methodology and parameters are presented in SVCAP, 2008.
4. Hanoi 2020 AQM Plan Viet Nam’s main priority continues to be economic development, with the environmental concerns taking second. This relationship between economy and environment has been experienced in both developed and developing countries worldwide. In the next decade, given the economic trends, increasing energy demand, growing vehicular population and urbanization, air pollution (outdoors and indoors) will be one of the critical issues to address in the growing urban centers like Hanoi and HCMC. Under 2020 BAU, the air pollution levels are expected to at least double the current levels, increasing its impact on human health. In this study, an ‘exposure reduction’ approach for PM is considered the primary driver to improve air quality than just a localized control measure, where the costs of reducing concentrations are likely to be high. Developing an AQM system that explicitly targets health risks is a challenging task. Pollutant concentrations can vary considerably in time and space, and pollution sources that contribute to exposure may do so to different extents. Of particular concern are the so-called hot spots, such as industrial estates and transport corridors, where pollutant concentrations are significantly higher than the average ambient concentrations. The policy measures proposed are expected to formulate more cost-effective interventions and more importantly to maximize public health improvements across the general population. Key strategy components for wider implementation of air pollution control interventions are
• Strengthening government, multi/bilateral and international agency awareness of the links between energy, pollution, health, and development, and their commitment to action. This is conducted through institutional capacity building at various levels and a better understanding of pollution sources and their strengths as outlined in the previous chapters.
• Facilitating collaboration between relevant sectors (government: health, environment, housing, energy, etc; as well as NGOs and businesses) at national and local levels.
• Support for technical development and evaluation of interventions; support for favorable institutional development, capacity building at governmental, private, and academic levels, and information dissemination; support from multi/bi-lateral agencies with finances and implementation strategies and capabilities.
4.1 Air Pollution Control Measures & Management For any city authority, it is important that sources and source strengths are identified and a series of control measures are determined to achieve the target standards and improve public health. However, no single measure on its own will realize the full attainment of the air quality objectives and so packages of measures will need to be deployed. Measures can be technological (e.g. fitting pollution abatement technologies to road vehicles and industrial processes) as well as measures designed to change behaviors (e.g., smarter choices, traffic management measures, incentives for cleaner vehicles and road pricing). Some measures require international agreement, for examples the measures targeting the GHG emissions. Others can be more determined at national or local level. A series of the interventions are detailed in the State of the Environment Report for Air Quality in Vietnam and a possible list of interventions for Hanoi is summarized below. Petrol and diesel fuelled vehicles have a strong track record and a very strong popularity because of the cheap and flexible fuel characteristics. In Hanoi, this sector is dominated by the motorcycles. It seems unlikely that they will be replaced in their entirety for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately this state of affairs is going to continue the trend. On the other hand there are development programs which address the problem, if only in a small way at the moment. These include promoting public transportation via efficient bus services and rail systems (JICA and HAIDEP, 2007). Among the fuel substitution options, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and compressed natural gas (CNG), appears currently to be a relatively wide-scale method of reducing local pollution in the transport sector, provided availability of the necessary infrastructure to supply and administer at larger scales. LPG
is primarily suited to cars and small petrol vehicles and CNG for light duty trucks and heavy duty buses in the public transport and the cost benefits are mainly applicable where high mileages are the norm. Fleet vehicles, local authorities and some small road transport utilities are well suited to the technology. More filling stations and purpose built vehicles are coming on stream. Hybrid vehicles are still in the beta stage, but they can be bought now. The proportional saving of energy (more mpg) is truly green. If optimistic, perhaps the hybrid cars will start an alternative approach to transport, increasingly using efficient electrical motors, as seen among a small fraction of motorcycles. Among the non-technical measures, introduction of an effective inspection and maintenance program for motorcycles and cars is important. Although motorcycles dominate the vehicular fleet, the 20% of the cars left unchecked lead to increased emission rates. The city authorities are also expected to introduce stricter emission norms for both new and in use vehicular fleet. As highlighted in the HAIDEP master plan for 2020, structured urban planning which integrates the landuse management with expected transport growth will the way forward. Urban development should be oriented towards compact cities where movement of people, services and goods are efficient. New commercial and residential establishments should consider implications on vehicle traffic and pedestrian movement. In the industrial sector, the energy efficiency of fuel combustion (EE Asia, 2006), especially coal, is vital. With the industrial sector growing a minimum of 5% a year and the corresponding demand for energy, strict implementation of industrial zoning and land-use planning away from the densely populated areas is an important criterion for urban planning. Among the uncertain and unaccounted sources, the area sources of pollution, except for construction, are the least regulated. Area sources include open burning of waste, biomass and agricultural residue; re-suspension of road dust; construction; as well as household cooking and eating. Measures such as an integrated waste collection system with landfill management; public awareness of the impacts of biomass burning; introduction of programs for wet and frequent sweeping to prevent road dust; are among the populous. Pollution from road dust and construction are those that are effectively implemented by the government authorities. However, activities related to waste burning and household cooking using biomass and coal are closely related to social behavior. In the domestic and to some extent in the industrial sectors, the share of renewable energy in the form of wind and solar power is slowing increasing. This has however brought about the need for technology innovation to lower costs, and requires skilled manpower, especially in the developing nations where technology advancement is limited. Aside from using the environmental police officers to enforce the laws against emission violators in industrial and transport sector and against waste burning in the domestic sector, comprehensive media & information campaigns should be launched by the government and concerned groups through the television, newspapers, and radio.
4.2 Implementation Strategy Development of cost effective measures to attain the emission and ambient targets involves efforts and continued innovation of stakeholders at national, state, & local levels. Implementation of these recommendations will require a commitment by all parties (such as DONREH, MONRE, CENMA, international and bilateral agencies, research organizations, and academic institutions) over several years. As that transition occurs, it is important that action on individual programs to reduce emissions continues to maintain progress toward cleaner air. A planning process comprised of leaders and experts of DONREH in consultation with specialists and researchers from universities, institutes and other related agencies composed an implementation strategy through 2020 is summarized in Table 8.
Table 8: Implementation strategy and priorities for AQM in Hanoi Action Organizations Responsible ST
(2010) MT
(2015) LT
(2020) Improving legal frameworks
Drafting City AQM Plan Hanoi DoNRE, City stakeholders with guidance from MoNRE • •
Drafting Clean Air Act MoNRE, VEPA, MoT, MoH, MoC, MoTI, and City DoNREs • •
Revision of Ambient and Emission Standards MoNRE/VEPA, DoNRE, MOH • • Hanoi AQM Capacity Strengthening Building Institutional Capacity to Manage AQM
MoNRE, VEPA, People’s Committees, Hanoi DoNRE •
Mapping Air Quality Research Agenda
Universities, Research Institutions, MoNRE, DoNRE, MoH, People’s Committees • •
Integrated Air Monitoring System
MoNRE, VEPA, People’s Committees, Hanoi DoNRE • • •
Increased Public Awareness
VCAP, Development partners, Universities, Civic society • • •
Improved Air Pollution Source Identification (Emissions Inventory)
MoNRE, VEPA, People’s Committees, Hanoi DoNRE • •
Air Dispersion Modeling and Impact Assessment Research Institutions, MoNRE, DoNRE • • Develop Decision Support System (DSS) Research Institutions, MoNRE, DoNRE • Air Pollution Control Measures and Management Options Reducing pollution from mobile sources
Vietnam Register, MoT, People’s Committees, Hanoi DoNREs • •
Reducing pollution from stationary sources
MoTI, MoNRE • • Reducing pollution from area sources
People’s Committees • • Trans-boundary air pollution
Ministry of Foreign Affairs • • AQM Financing Financing research studies, pilot products, and donor lending
MoPI, International Cooperation Office, MoNRE, MoTI, Local Governments, Development partners • • •
Abbreviations: MoPI = Ministry of Planning and Investment; MoT = Ministry of Transport; MoNRE = Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment; DoNRE = Department of Natural Resource and Environment; MoTI = Ministry of Trade and Industry; VEPA = Vietnam Environmental Protection Agency; VCAP = Vietnamese Clean Air Program; MoH = Ministry of Health; MoC = Ministry of Construction;
4.3 Vision 2020 For 2020, under best available and implemented controls scenario, a total reduction of ~26,700 tons of primary PM10 emissions or 59% compared to BAU in 2020 is expected. With the expected growth rates and possibility of these controls, the emissions levels are expected to drop below the BAU 2005 levels for PM10, ~4,900 tons or 21% compared to BAU in 2005. Details are presented in SVCAP, 2008. Largest reduction in the emissions, due to their shear volume of emissions is expected in the industrial and transport sectors. Under current assumptions, direct vehicular exhaust emissions are expected to reduce by a 50% compared to 2020 BAU emissions scenario. Figure 7 presents modeled total PM10 concentrations followed by percent reductions from BAU scenarios in 2020. In the densely populated areas on Hanoi, ambient levels are expected to decrease ~60% upon implementation of the control
measures. Also, the concentrations are estimated in the range of ambient levels of 2005 BAU. Similar to the BAU scenarios, the health impact analysis was conducted for controlled scenario. In the new scenario, the health impact numbers are expected to decrease substantially, with largest reductions coming from the central high road density areas.
2020 with Controls % Change from 2020 BAU
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Figure 7: Modeled annual average PM10 concentrations in controlled 2020
5. In Conclusion For the Hanoi city, an immediate action plan needs to include:
• Raise awareness of the impacts of air pollution on health; opportunities to reduce air pollution more cost effectively and efficiently; and benefits of alternatives measures among decision-makers at political, public, and media levels;
• Encourage dialogue on political, economic, and regulatory frameworks best suited for successfully promoting strategies and increasing investment from the state and the private sector;
• Encourage local stakeholder (government, public, and private) commitment to intensify efforts to promote pollution reduction alternatives;
• Contribute to a wider dissemination of information relevant to these topics; • Provide a platform for the development of innovative methodologies – technical, legal,
institutional, and economic; On a long term basis, city needs to include:
• Establishment of a wider air pollution monitoring network; • Development of methodology to track changes in emission patterns to better understand and
inform decision makers of pollution trends; • Formulate policy measures with structured stakeholder interactions, to maximize environmental
health benefits.
Acknowledgments This study was funded by the Swiss Vietnamese Clean Air Program, Hanoi, Vietnam.
References CAI-Asia and ADB, 2006. Country Synthesis Report on Urban Air Quality Management in Asia: Viet Nam. Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities, Manila, Philippines. Calori et al, 1999. An urban trajectory model for sulfur in Asian megacities: model concepts and preliminary application. Atmospheric Environment 33, 3109–3117 CENMA, 2007. Motorcycle Clinic in Hanoi. Hanoi, Vietnam. Cohen, D., et. al., 2006. Source apportionment for Hanoi, Vietnam. www.cleanairnet.org/baq2006/1757/docs/SW23_3.ppt EE Asia, 2006. Energy Efficiency Guide for Industry in Asia. www.energyefficiencyasia.org Hanoi, 2006. Hanoi statistical year book, Hanoi, Vietnam. Hein, et. al., 2004. PMF receptor modeling of fine and coarse PM10 in air masses governing monsoon conditions in Hanoi, northern Vietnam. Atmospheric Environment 38, 189-201. JICA and HAIDEP, 2007. The Comprehensive Urban Development Programme in Hanoi Capital City of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (HAIDEP) Schwela, et. al., 2006. Urban Air Pollution in Asian Cities: Status, Challenges and Management. Earthscan Publications, UK. SIM-air, 2008. Simple Interactive Models for better air quality (SIM-air), www.sim-air.org SVCAP, 2008. Hanoi air quality management plan for 2020. Swiss Vietnamese Clean Air Program, Hanoi, Vietnam.
