Assessment of the Sensitivity of the Southern Coastof the Gulf of Corinth (Peloponnese, Greece) toSea-level Rise
Research Article
Efthimios Karymbalis∗, Christos Chalkias, George Chalkias, Eleni Grigoropoulou, George Manthos,Maria Ferentinou
Department of Geography, Harokopio University,70 El. Venizelou Str. 17671 Athens, Greece
Received 4 May 2012; accepted 22 August 2012
Abstract: The eustatic sea-level rise due to global warming is predicted to reach approximately 18 – 59 cm by the year2100, which necessitates the identification and protection of sensitive sections of coastline. In this study, theclassification of the southern coast of the Gulf of Corinth according to the sensitivity to the anticipated future sea-level rise is attempted by applying the Coastal Sensitivity Index (CSI), with variable ranges specifically modifiedfor the coastal environment of Greece, utilizing GIS technology. The studied coastline has a length of 148 kmand is oriented along the WNW-ESE direction. CSI calculation involves the relation of the following physicalvariables, associated with the sensitivity to long-term sea-level rise, in a quantifiable manner: geomorphology,coastal slope, relative sea-level rise rate, shoreline erosion or accretion rate, mean tidal range and mean waveheight. For each variable, a relative risk value is assigned according to the potential magnitude of its contributionto physical changes on the coast as the sea-level rises. Every section of the coastline is assigned a risk rankingbased on each variable, and the CSI is calculated as the square root of the product of the ranked variablesdivided by the total number of variables. Subsequently, a CSI map is produced for the studied coastline. Thismap showed that an extensive length of the coast (57.0 km, corresponding to 38.7% of the entire coastline) ischaracterized as highly and very highly sensitive primarily due to the low topography, the presence of erosion-susceptible geological formations and landforms and fast relative sea-level rise rates. Areas of high and very highCSI values host socio-economically important land uses and activities.
The global average temperature has increased over thepast century. Although the global warming in the previouscentury was estimated to be 0.8◦C, the rise in temperaturein the last thirty years alone was 0.6◦C at a rate of 0.2◦Cper decade as greenhouse gases became the dominantclimate forcing [1].561
Assessment of the Sensitivity of the Southern Coast of the Gulf of Corinth (Peloponnese, Greece) to Sea-level Rise
Perhaps the most commonly recognized impact of globalwarming is the eustatic rise in sea-level due to the thermalexpansion of seawater and the addition of ice-melt wa-ter [2]. Recent evidence has indicated large-scale ice meltin the major ice repositories of the world. For instance,the Greenland ice is melting at a rate of 239±23 km3per year [3], and the extent of Arctic sea ice has beendecreasing at almost 8% per decade since the middle ofthe last century [4], while the most alarming evidence isthe widespread loss of ice in West Antarctica [5], whichcontributes approximately 0.36 mm/yr to global sea-levelrise [6].The exact rates of present and future global sea-level riseare uncertain. Climate models predict a future global sea-level rise of 0.25 – 0.5 m by the year 2100. For severalcarbon emission scenarios, this value is more than doublecompared with the sea-level rise rate for the 20th century.Global sea-level rise estimates from the TOPEX/Poseidonand Jason-1 satellite altimeters suggest that sea-level riserates since 1993 may be near 3 mm/yr [7, 8], which re-sembles predicted sea-level rise acceleration estimatesfor the 21st century published by the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change [9]. The IPCC report of 2007predicted that global sea-level will rise at least 59 cm by2100, whereas a recent pessimistic estimation based on anew model allowing accurate reconstruction of sea-levelsover the past 2,000 years suggests that the melting of gla-ciers, the disappearance of ice sheets and warming watercould lift the sea-level by as much as 1.5 m by the end ofthis century [10].In the Mediterranean Sea, coastal sea-level derived fromthe longest tide gauges indicates a rate of sea-level riseof 1.1 – 1.3 mm/yr for the 20th century [11]. For the period1960-1990, negative sea-level trends were observed dueto an increase in the average atmospheric pressure overthe basin [12], and a fast sea-level rise was observed inthe late 1990s [13]. Although decadal sea-level changesin the Mediterranean Sea are partly due to global sig-nals, the local atmospheric and steric variability havedominated both the global trends and the decadal vari-ability [14]. The sea-level trend for the period between1944 and 1989 observed in Alexandria (Egypt), at the onlylong term gauge station in the Eastern Mediterranean, is1.9±0.2 mm/yr and is higher than the other stations inthe basin [14]. The value would be expected to be evenhigher if the 1990s were covered because the enhancedsea-level rise was higher in the Eastern Mediterraneanthan in the rest of the basin.The potential impacts of future sea-level rise includecoastal erosion, frequent and intensified cyclonic activ-ity and associated storm surge flooding that may affectthe coastal zones, saltwater intrusion into groundwater
aquifers, the inundation of ecologically significant wet-lands, and threats to cultural and historical resources, aswell as to infrastructure [15–17].Recent projections of global sea-level rise due to climatechange have generated an interest in coastal science todetermine the response of coastlines to sea-level change.Various approaches have been proposed to predict theevolution of the coastal zone under the influence of an-ticipated sea-level rise. Each approach has its short-comings or can be invalid for certain applications. Themost important among these methodologies include theextrapolation of historical data (predominantly concerningthe shifting of the shoreline), the application of static in-undation models or simple geometric models such as theBruun’s rule [18], the application of sediment dynamicsmodels and probabilistic simulation based on parameter-ized physical forcing variables [19]. Although a viable andcompletely quantitative prediction of the coastal responseto long-term sea-level rise is not available, the relativesusceptibility of different coastal environments to sea-level rise may be quantified by considering information re-garding the important variables that contribute to coastalevolution in a given area. Several of these variables arecoastal geomorphology and slope, shoreline shifting, rateof sea-level rise and other related factors. These phys-ical characteristics of the coastal system have been usedin several sensitivity analysis approaches to classify thecoast, producing a ranking of sections of shoreline accord-ing to susceptibility to relative sea-level rise.Thus, an index that is based on physical variables, such ascoastal landforms, geology, relief, shoreline displacement,relative sea-level change, tide range and wave height,has been used to assess the sensitivity of coasts in theUSA, Europe, Brazil, India and Argentina [16, 19–22]. Asimilar formula, referred to as a sensitivity index, wasused by Shaw et al. [23] along the Canadian coast whileCatto, in an attempt to study the coastal erosion of theisland of Newfoundland, proposed two separate indices:a newly developed Coastal Erosion Index (CEI) for theassessment of the sensitivity to short-term erosion and aCoastal Sensitivity Index for the assessment of longer termcoastal erosion and susceptibility to sea-level rise [24].Nageswara Rao et al. [22] proposed a coastal index byintegrating the differentially weighted rank values for fiveof the abovementioned variables, including geomorpho-logy, coastal slope, shoreline change, spring-tide rangeand significant wave height. Several studies consideredadditional parameters for estimating coastal sensitivity.For instance, Abuodha and Woodroffe [25] introduced anindex with two more physical variables concerning barriertype and shoreline exposure to assess the susceptibilityof southern Australia to sea-level rise. The authors also562
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used two variables instead of one to express the geomor-phology variable, taking into account coastal landformsand rock types. Boruff et al. [26] used physical risk indic-ators along with a quantitatively derived social vulnerabil-ity index (SoVI; incorporating population and demographicdata, variables relevant to economic activities, etc.) for thecomparative spatial assessment of human-induced vulner-ability to coastal hazards in US coastal counties.The aim of this paper is to apply a Coastal SensitivityIndex proposing new ranges for sensitivity ranking of theinvolved variables taking into consideration the coastalenvironment of Greece. Furthermore, among the mainpurposes of this study is to classify the shoreline alongthe southern coast of the Gulf of Corinth (Central Greece)with respect to its sensitivity to anticipated long-term sea-level rise through the calculation of the Coastal SensitivityIndex (CSI), similar to the formula proposed by Thielerand Hammar-Klose [19] that modified the initial indexproduced by Gornitz et al. [27]. Identifying sections ofshoreline susceptible to long-term sea-level rise is ne-cessary for more effective coastal zone management, toincrease resilience, and to help reduce the impacts of cli-mate change on both infrastructure and human beings.Previous research concerning potential impacts of futuresea-level rise on the Greek coastal zone include the workof Gaki-Papanastassiou et al. [28], which investigated theimplications of the expected sea-level rise for the coasts ofcontinental Greece. The authors estimated the potentiallyinundated low-lying coastal areas, delineating land belowthe 50 cm contour line, and concluded that the inundatedareas of the deltaic plains, which will be lost by the year2100, will comprise, on average, 13.16% of the total deltaarea. Similar CVI calculation approaches have alreadybeen applied in Greece for the coasts of Porto Heli andErmioni [29], at the scale of the Aegean coast [30, 31],for the W/NW coast of Attica [32] and for the coast ofArgolikos Gulf [33]. In a study of the western Peloponnese,Doukakis [34] used digitized maps at a 1:5,000 scale toexamine those sections of the coast that appeared to havehigh sensitivity.In this study, the term sensitivity (which means susceptib-ility) is used rather than vulnerability because the latterterm generally refers to human vulnerability to particularhazards and therefore requires a consideration of socio-economic factors such as population, infrastructure, socialcohesion, etc. The index applied in this study is named theCoastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) by Thieler and Hammar-Klose [19], who originally proposed it to characterize thesusceptibility of the US coasts to sea-level rise. Althoughthe index applied here involves the same parameters asthe CVI approach of Thieler and Hammar-Klose the termsensitivity is used instead of vulnerability because it as-
sesses only the physical aspects of the coast and not so-cioeconomic variables.2. Study area
The Gulf of Corinth is a ‘back arc’ elongated graben,formed by normal faulting associated with an approxim-ately N-S crustal extension. The gulf is a bathymetricallyrestricted marine embayment, with a nearly 105 km lon-gitudinal axis lying in the E-W direction (Fig. 1). The em-bayment has an average width of approximately 320 km,whilst water depths are in excess of 900 m in the centralsection. To the west, the gulf is linked with the Gulf ofPatras through the narrow and shallow silled Rion Straits(2 km wide and 65 m deep), which, in turn, is connectedto the open Ionian Sea. The Corinth Canal (an artificiallydredged channel, 8 m deep and 21 m wide) links the Gulfof Corinth with the Saronikos Gulf and the western Ae-gean Sea, to the east.The study area shoreline lies on the southern coast of theGulf of Corinth, extending for 148 km from Cape Rio (Rio-Antirio straits) in the west to Corinth Canal in the east,and is oriented along the WNW-ESE direction (Fig. 1).Most of the coast consists of unconsolidated alluvial de-posits (mainly pebbles, cobbles, gravels and coarse sand),whereas only a small section between Psathopyrgos andLampiri comprises steep marine cliffs composed of relat-ively difficult-to-erode rocks (limestones and conglomer-ates). The coastal zone comprises a series of approx-imately forty coastal alluvial fans of Late Holocene age,formed by streams and torrents that drain the mountain-ous northern Peloponnese. The western coastal alluvialfans (west of Lampiri) are smaller and steeper (except forthe Volineos River fan). The eastern portion of the coast(between Corinth Canal and Xylokastro) consists of anextensive coastal plain backed by a series of ten upliftedmarine terraces ranging in elevation from 10 to 400 m,which correspond to the Late Pleistocene oxygen-isotopestages of high sea-level stands [35]. The Corinth rift isone of the most active neotectonic features of the EasternMediterranean. The southern side of the Gulf, where thestudy area is located, is affected by the North dippingactive normal faults of Psathopyrgos, Aigion, Eliki andXylokastro (Fig. 1). Some segments of the investigatedcoastline are uplifting as they lie on the hanging wallsof these active faults while others are subsiding becausethey are located in the footwalls of the faults.The general climatic conditions of the study area aretypical of the temperate Mediterranean. The mean an-nual precipitation ranges from 800 mm near the coastlineto more than 1,200 mm in the southernmost highlands.563
Assessment of the Sensitivity of the Southern Coast of the Gulf of Corinth (Peloponnese, Greece) to Sea-level Rise
Figure 1. Location of the study area and subaqueous morphology of the Gulf of Corinth. The main active normal faults that affect the coastline ofthe study area are also depicted. (P.f.: Psathopyrgos fault, A.f.: Aigion fault, E.f.: Eliki fault, X.f.: Xylokastro fault).
Rain is unevenly distributed between the cold and thehot period of the year, with most falling during the wintermonths. The mean annual temperature fluctuates between15 and 17◦C.The submarine bathymetry of the Gulf of Corinth con-sists of the continental shelf, the continental slope, thecontinental rise, and the abyssal plain [36]. The south-ern continental shelf is narrow (<1 km) and relativelysteep (4 – 8◦), with the shelf break occurring at a waterdepth of approximately 100 m. In contrast, the northerncontinental shelf slopes gently (1 – 2◦) and extends intothe central part of the gulf to water depths of approxim-ately 200 m. The southern slope is narrow (1.5 – 2.5 km)and steep (14 – 18◦), whereas the northern slope varies atbetween 3 and 7 km in width with a gradient of 5 – 7◦ [37].In the north, the continental rise is narrower (1 – 2.5 km)and steeper (2 – 5◦) than in the south, where the widthranges between 1 and 5.5 km and the slope gradients are1 – 3◦. The southern characteristics are the result of co-alescing submarine fans, which extend offshore from thesteep southern continental slope to the abyssal plain. Fi-nally, the abyssal plain occupies the middle section ofthe central basin at water depths >800 m. The plain isessentially a flat area with gradients of <0.5◦.
The Gulf can be characterized as a microtidal environ-ment with an average mean tidal range of 0.15 m [38].The surface water circulation is dominated by the fun-neling of both wind and water through the narrow RionStraights where mean surface current velocities can ex-ceed 100 cm/s [39]. More specifically, the wind climateis characterized by the presence of a high bi-modal pat-tern, with E and WSW winds dominating. Wave climate isprimarily wind driven with offshore mean significant waveheights averaging <0.3 m.North Peloponnese has been selected as a case studyarea for the application of the CSI predominantly due tothe low-lying morphology of the coastal zone, the intensetectonic activity which leads to relative sea-level changesvariations along the shoreline, and the prevailing land usetypes. The national road that connects Athens with Pat-ras, the third largest city in Greece, extends along theshoreline of the study area and numerous cities and set-tlements are located along the coast, such as Corinth, Ki-ato, Xylokastro, Diakopto and Aigio, (from east to west).The main economic activities are agriculture, commerceand tourism; consequently, there is an increase in urban-ization along the coast [40].
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3. Methodology and data collectionAs previously mentioned, the CSI estimated in this studyis a modification of the Coastal Vulnerability Index pro-posed by Thieler and Hammar-Klose [19], which modifiedthe initial index produced by Gornitz et al. [27]. This in-dex allows six variables to be related in a quantifiablemanner to express the relative sensitivity of the coast tophysical changes due to future sea-level rise. The CSI iscalculated as the square root of the product of six vari-ables divided by their total number (six). The variablesare ranked from 1 to 5 according to Table 1, with a rankof 1 indicating very low sensitivity and a rank of 5 in-dicating very high sensitivity. The ranges of sensitivityranking, at least for some of the variables, are designedspecifically for the coastal environment of Greece by tak-ing into consideration the maximum and minimum valuesof the given variable. The six variables are classified intotwo groups:
• Geological or structural variables, and• Physical variables.
The geological variables include geomorphology, coastalslope and historic shoreline change. The physical vari-ables include relative sea-level rise rate, mean tidal rangeand mean significant wave height.CVI = √
a · b · c · d · e · f6 ,
where a: geomorphology, b: coastal slope, c: shorelineerosion/accretion rate, d: relative sea-level rise rate, e:mean tide range and f : mean significant wave height.Categorization of geomorphology classes in this study wasundertaken using recent orthorectified aerial photographs(taken in 2009) and detailed (at the scale of 1:5,000)fieldwork (geomorphological mapping). Because this vari-able also represents the bedrock outcropping along theshoreline, data for the rock types were interpreted fromgeological maps of the area at a scale of 1:50,000 pub-lished by the Greek Institute of Geology and Mineral Ex-ploration.To estimate the coastal slope value (in percentage), aslope map of the coastal zone was created with the use ofthe detailed 1:5,000 topographic map of the study area.With this map as the main elevation source, a Digital El-evation Model (DEM) of the coastal zone was created forthe coastal strip with an elevation from 0 to 200 m. Next,for this zone, the slope map was implemented within theArcGIS spatial analysis extension environment, and the
map of slope zones (according to Table 1) was implemen-ted. Finally, for the assignment of the proper slope cat-egorization to each coastline segment, the intersection ofslope zones with the coastline was performed.Shoreline erosion or accretion rates were derived usingremote sensing data. Shoreline change has been cal-culated from orthorectified aerial photographs taken in1945 and 2009 that were obtained from the Hellenic Ca-dastre (Ktimatologio S.A.). The photomosaic of these pho-tographs was manipulated within the GIS environment todigitize the shorelines of 1945 and 2009. These thematiclayers (in vector format) of the 1945 and 2009 shorelineswere overlaid, and with the use of GIS-based distanceanalysis functions, the final shoreline change map for the64-year time period was obtained with estimated accre-tion and erosion rates.The variable of relative sea-level change is the combin-ation of the global eustatic sea-level rise and the localisostatic and/or tectonic land movements. For this studyrelative sea-level change is the sum of the eustatism com-ponent and the local vertical land movements caused bothby active faulting and natural compaction of unconsolid-ated sediments. Published information concerning the re-cent slip rates of the four major active coastal normal faultswas considered. Furthermore, studies regarding land sub-sidence caused mainly by natural compaction of alluvialsediments of the Mornos River delta, located at the op-posite coast of the Gulf, were used [41].The tidal range was deduced from published informa-tion [38]. The mean annual values of significant waveheight were abstracted from the Wave and Wind Atlas ofthe Hellenic Seas [42], which is based on offshore meas-urements for the period between 1999 and 2007 (POS-EIDON program).To obtain a preliminary assessment of the impacts of an-ticipated sea-level rise on the socio-economic activities,land cover of the coastal zone was identified utilizingthe relevant map of the Corine 2000 Land Cover Pro-gram (Table 2). Twelve land cover categories were re-cognized, including continuous urban fabric, discontinuousurban fabric, industrial or commercial units, road and railnetworks and associated land, vineyards, fruit trees andberry plantations, olive groves, complex cultivation pat-terns, land principally occupied by agriculture, coniferousforests, transitional woodlands - shrubs, and beaches andsand plains. Land cover classes were compared with areaswith high CSI values, which represent the highly and veryhighly sensitive segments of the shoreline.GIS software ArcGIS (ver. 9.3), provided the platform forthe coastal mapping and the calculation of the CSI. Foreach variable, the entire coastline of the study area is seg-mented into five sensitivity classes, and a sensitivity rank565
Assessment of the Sensitivity of the Southern Coast of the Gulf of Corinth (Peloponnese, Greece) to Sea-level Rise
Table 1. Ranges for sensitivity ranking of the six variables.
along the northern coast of the Peloponnese (land cover data obtained from Corinne, 2000).
VulnerabilityLand use types Very low Low Moderate High Very high(km) (%) (km) (%) (km) (%) (km) (%) (km) (%)Continuous Urban Fabric 2.74 12.76 0.95 2.96 0.56 1.52 - - - -Discontinuous Urban Fabric 6.10 28.40 5.32 16.58 8.76 23.75 5.64 46.46 5.75 12.62Industrial or Commercial units 0.43 2.00 0.29 0.90 - - - - 1.81 3.97Road and rail networks and associated land 0.97 4.52 0.32 1.00 - - 0.18 1.48 - -Vineyards - - - - 0.87 2.36 0.34 2.80 1.99 4.37Fruit trees and berry plantations 1.46 6.80 6.07 18.92 12.57 34.08 3.66 30.15 14.42 31.65Olive groves - - - - 0.36 0.98 0.17 1.40 0.73 1.60Complex cultivation patterns 5.51 25.65 6.46 20.14 10.73 29.09 2.15 17.71 16.60 36.44Land principally occupied by agriculture 0.17 0.79 2.42 7.54 2.63 7.13 - - 2.80 6.15Coniferous forest 0.63 2.93 5.13 15.99 - - - - - -Transitional woodland shrub 3.47 16.15 4.88 15.21 0.25 0.68 - - - -Beaches, dunes and sand plains - - 0.24 0.75 0.15 0.41 - - 1.46 3.2021.48 100.00 32.08 100.00 36.88 100.00 12.14 100.00 45.56 100.00number is assigned to each segment of the coast (indicat-ing the sensitivity level in terms of the given variable). Themethod of computing the CSI in the present study is sim-ilar to that applied by Pendleton et al., [43] Thieller andHammar-Klose [19] and Abuodha and Woodroffe [25]. Thedifference is that instead of the “raster” approach, inputparameters and final CSI values were estimated in coast-line segments. The size of each segment was 50 m. Thismodified approach seems appropriate for medium scale.To display the results of the index derived from integra-tion of the variables, a template of segments was derivedfor the coast. The segment-based template was used tostore and present data for each of the variables in anattribute table (in vector format using shape-files in Arc-GIS) for adjacent segments along the coast. As mentionedabove, for each of the six variables, a ranking on a scale of
1 – 5 was assigned to each segment (with rank 1 repres-enting very low sensitivity and rank 5 indicating very highsensitivity) following the classification scheme outlined inTable 1. The final CSI map was generated by combiningall of the variables and by aggregate neighbor coastlinesegments with the same CSI value contains 836 segmentsof the coastline, each of which has a unique identity in itscorresponding attribute table. Another field was added tothis attribute table for the CSI formula so that the systemgenerated the CSI values for all of the coastline segmentsof the north Peloponnese. The combined CSI value wasadded as an attribute value for each coastline segment.Subsequently, the “natural breaks” classification methodwas used to categorize coastline segments according totheir CSI magnitude for the construction of the final CSIzonation maps.566
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4. Results4.1. CSI variables and their rankingAs previously mentioned, CSI parameters can be dividedinto geological or structural variables (which include geo-morphology, shoreline change rate and coastal slope) andphysical process variables (which are relative sea-levelrise, tidal range and significant wave height). The geo-logical variables describe the physical characteristics ofa coast and account for the relative erosion resistance ofa shoreline, its susceptibility to flooding and long-termerosion/accretion trend. Physical process variables con-tribute to inundation hazards of a particular section of thecoastline over timescales from hours to centuries. All ofthese parameters include both qualitative and quantitativeinformation. Depending upon the nature of each variable,the entire coast of north Peloponnese is segmented andassigned vulnerability ranks ranging from 1 to 5 (1: verylow, 2: low, 3: moderate, 4: high and 5: very high sens-itivity) as follows.4.2. Geological – Structural variablesThe geomorphology variable is non-numerical and ex-presses the relative response of different types of coastallandforms to sea-level rise [33]. Geomorphology also con-siders the relative resistance of various geological form-ations occurring at the shoreline to marine erosion pro-cesses. Thus, geomorphology is ranked qualitatively ac-cording to the relative strength of the coastal landformsand rocks [22] outcropping along the northern coast ofthe Peloponnese. The predominant coastal landforms inthe study area (ranging from very high to very low vul-nerability) identified during the field coastal geomorpho-logical mapping were coarse sandy to gravelly beaches,which developed mainly at the aprons of coastal alluvialcones and fan deltas, and marine cliffs composed of variousrock types, such as marls, conglomerates, and limestones(Fig. 2). The different landforms recognized and mappedwere classified as shown in the table of Figure 3. Beachesare composed of unconsolidated sediments directly ex-posed to sea waves and swells and are sensitive to the ef-fects of natural marine processes and to relative sea-levelrise. Consequently, beaches are given a rank of 5 (veryhigh sensitivity). Beaches developed along coastal plainsand the aprons of coastal alluvial fans are the most com-mon landforms along the north shoreline of Peloponnese,occupying a total length of 111.4 km, which correspondsto 75.6 % of the total coastline, followed by limestonesand artificially armored coasts (24.9 km – 16.4 %), marinecliffs composed of Pleistocene marls (4.6 km, which is 3.1% of the coastline), Plio-Pleistocene deposits (4.2 km –
2.9 %), and conglomerates (3.6 km – 2.4 %) (Figs. 2, 3).Cliffs of weaker lithologies (marls, Plio-Pleistocene de-posits) or medium elevations were assigned sensitivityranks of 4 and 3, respectively, whereas higher cliffs madeof stronger lithologies (conglomerates and limestones) of-fer maximum resistance and were classed with a rank of2 and 1, respectively. Notably, the artificially protec-ted segments of the North Peloponnese shoreline have alength of 20.89 km, which corresponds to 14% of the totalcoastline length, and were considered in this model to becomposed of a particularly resistant to erosion rock type(rank 1).Determination of the regional coastal slope identifies therelative sensitivity of inundation and the potential rapidityof shoreline retreat because low-sloping coastal regionsare thought to retreat faster than steeper regions [44]. Theranges for sensitivity ranking of the coastal slope variableare the same as those used in other similar studies aroundthe world [19, 45]. Regions with coastal slopes lower than3% were characterized with very high sensitivity, whereascoastal cliffs with slopes higher than 12% were classifiedas areas of very low sensitivity (Table 1). The 68.7% of thestudy coastal zone (which corresponds to 101.2 km) thatlies between Aigio and the Corinth Canal is low-lyingand is characterized as very highly susceptible to inund-ation (Fig. 4). Low-lying coast is occupied by beachesdeveloped along the fronts of alluvial fans and fan deltas.Nearly 7.7% of the western portion of the north coast ofthe Peloponnese (11.5 km) exhibits a slope of between 3and 6% and is considered to be highly sensitive, whereas6.4 km (4.4 %) of the coastal zone is of moderate sensitiv-ity, having a slope between 6% and 9%. A section of thewest coast of the study area (1.5 km – 1.0% and 27.1 km– 18.4%), between Psathopyrgos and Lampiri, is classifiedas having low and very low sensitivity due to the presenceof relatively steep (with a slope between 9% and 12%) andvery steep (slope >12%) rocky cliffs, respectively (Fig. 4).The artificially armored segments of the coast are con-sidered as having a very steep slope.The shoreline change variable attempts to capture the his-torical trend of shoreline movement by determining overallpatterns of erosion or accretion. Shoreline change is oneof the more complex variables because the trend is typic-ally variable over time [45]. The ranking of the shorelinechange rate is based on the range of change in beachwidth values. In Greece the most distinctive coastlinechanges concern beach zones of low lying coastal plains(mainly river deltas) and are associated with the prograd-ation of active river mouths or the retreat of abandonedchannels [46]. Extremely high mean erosion rates up tomore than 20 m/yr are very rare and characterize certaindeltaic locations such as the Acheloos river delta. These567
Assessment of the Sensitivity of the Southern Coast of the Gulf of Corinth (Peloponnese, Greece) to Sea-level Rise
Figure 2. Map of the coastal geomorphology along the southern coastline of the Gulf of Corinth. Geological formations occurring in the broaderregion of the north Peloponnese are also depicted. Geological formation mapping is based on geological maps of the Institute ofGeology and Mineral Exploration of Greece and field observations.
Figure 3. Map of sensitivity classification of the northern Peloponnese coastline according to the geomorphology variable. The map indicatesthe sensitivity ranking of various segments of the coast based on the relative resistance of the geomorphic features and geologicalformations that fringe the coast. Inset table and bar diagram show the length (in km and percentage) of shoreline in each sensitivitycategory.
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Figure 4. Map of sensitivity classification of the northern Peloponnese coastline according to the coastal slope variable. The map indicates thesensitivity ranking of various segments of the coast based on the regional coastal slope values derived from a detailed DEM. Inset tableand bar diagram show the length (in km and percentage) of shoreline in each sensitivity category.
extreme retreat rates are associated with human interfer-ence including dam constructions, stream flow diversion,etc. Usually erosion rates in deltaic and low-lying coastalplains are less than 2 m/yr. By contrast, active rivermouths appear to be areas of rapid accretion with prograd-ation rates up to more than 4 m/yr [47]. In beaches thatare not near large river deltas retreat rates range from 0.5to 1 m/yr [48]. On the basis of the above considerations,new ranges of sensitivity ranking for the variable of coast-line shifting were proposed for the Greek coasts (Table 1).The north coast of the Peloponnese experienced shorelinechange rates from −1 m/yr of erosion (moderate sensit-ivity) to +2 mm/yr of accretion (low sensitivity) between1945 and 2009. A shoreline length of 123.6 km, whichcorresponds to 83.6% of the coastline, is relatively stable(mean shoreline shifting rate within ±0.5 m/yr), whereas10.5 km (7.1%) of the coastline is retreating with a meanrate between −0.5 and −1.5 m/yr (Fig. 5). 11.1 km (7.5%)of the shoreline has been prograded with a mean accretionrate between +0.5 and +1.5 for the period between 1945and 2009, while a small percentage of the coastline (1.8%– 2.7 km) is prograding significantly faster with a meanaccretion rate higher than 1.5 m/yr. Accretion occurs atthe mouth of the rivers due to increased sediment supply,especially during the rainy period of the year.
4.3. Physical process variables
Relative sea-level change is the result of global eustaticsea-level rise and local changes in land level. Local landlevel changes are the combination of tectonic uplift or sub-sidence due to the activation of the coastal active normalfaults, which are located along the northern Peloponneseshoreline and the subsidence of alluvial coastal plains andfan deltas due to natural compaction of loose sediments.The eustatic sea-level rise is considered to have the samevalue along the entire Gulf and took the value of 1.0 mm/yrbased on estimations from studies relevant to eustatic sea-level rise in Greece [49].The coast of the study area is affected by four major activenormal faults (Psathopyrgos, Aigion, Eliki and Xylokastro)(Fig. 1). Parts of the coastline are uplifting because theylie on the footwall of these active faults while others aresubsiding as they are located on the hanging wall of thefaults. It is estimated that the recent average mean long-term uplift rate caused by the activation of the normalfault of Psathopyrgos is about 0.6 – 0.8 mm/yr [50]. Hencea negative mean relative sea-level change of −0.7 wasconsidered for the segments of the coastline that lie onthe footwall of this fault while a positive change (+0.7)was assumed for the subsiding coast. The 12 km long Ai-569
Assessment of the Sensitivity of the Southern Coast of the Gulf of Corinth (Peloponnese, Greece) to Sea-level Rise
Figure 5. Map of sensitivity classification of the northern Peloponnese coastline according to the shoreline change variable. The map indicatesthe sensitivity ranking of various segments of the coast based on the shoreline change during the 64-year period between 1945 and2009. Inset table and bar diagram show the length (in km and percentage) of shoreline in each sensitivity category.
gion fault and its offshore extension dictates the coastalgeomorphology of the broader Aigion area. Study of atrench excavated across the fault led to the estimationof a minimum slip rate of 1.9 – 2.7 mm/yr, which corres-ponds to a mean uplift rate of 1.4 mm/yr [51]. Throughcoastal geomorphic and biological indicators, an aver-age Late Holocene coastal uplift ranging between 1.6 and1.9 mm/yr [52] was estimated. The Eliki fault has a lengthof 40 km and is located further east. Palaeoseismologicaltrenching and fault colluvial tectonostratigraphy indicatea slip rate on the fault over the past 2000 years of about1.5 mm/year [53]. It has been proven that the entire al-luvial plain of the fan deltas of Kerinitis and VouraikosRivers, which lay on the hanging wall of the eastern seg-ment of the Eliki fault, has subsided at a rate of 1.4 mm/yr,resulting in the burial of the Late Hellenistic-Roman oc-cupation horizons under 3 m of fluvial sediments [53, 54].Consequently for the segments of the coastline which lieon the uplifting part of the faults of Aigion and Eliki anegative mean relative sea-level change of −1.4 was as-sumed, while a positive long-term relative sea-level rise(of +1.4 mm/yr) was assumed for the subsiding coast.The eastern coast of the study area is affected by theXylokastro fault, which according to Armijo et al. [35]has caused an uplift of the footwall with a mean rate of
1.3 mm/yr. On the basis of the above, for the part of thecoastline that is close to the fault a mean relative sea-level change rate of + or −1.3 mm/yr due to tectonicsis considered, while this rate becomes + or −0.3 mm/yrfor the easternmost segment of the coast (between Kiatoand the Corinth Canal) which is far from the fault trace(Fig. 1).Regarding ground subsidence due to sediment compac-tion, a recent publication for the Mornos River delta, whichis located at the opposite coast of the Gulf, was con-sidered [41]. The application of the Persistent Scatter-ers Interferometry (PSI) technique for the period between1992 and 2009 yielded mean subsidence rates for theMornos delta ranging between 0.5 and 4.5 mm/yr, pre-sumably caused by the natural compaction of deposits.Taking into consideration the fact that the coastal allu-vial plains and fan deltas of the study area are smallerthan the delta of the Mornos River, a subsidence rate of2 mm/yr was assumed for the coastline along the apronsof the extensive coastal alluvial fans (Vouraikos, Selinous,Volineos etc) while for the shoreline of the smaller coastalplains a slightly lower subsidence rate (of 1.5 mm/yr) wasconsidered.Due to the lack of recent accurate sea-level measurements,the values for the variable of relative sea-level rise were570
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Figure 6. Map of sensitivity classification of the northern Peloponnese coastline according to the relative sea-level change variable. The mapindicates the sensitivity ranking of various segments of the coast taking into consideration mean eustatic sea-level rise and vertical landmovements caused by tectonics and natural compaction of alluvial sediments. Inset table and bar diagram show the length (in km andpercentage) of shoreline in each sensitivity category.
estimated by coupling the effects of eustatism and localland level movements caused by tectonics and sedimentcompaction. The resulting relative sea-level rise trend for30.5 km, which corresponds to 20.7% of the coastline, ishigher than 3.4 mm/yr. These fast subsiding coastline seg-ments are the fan delta shorelines of Volineos, Selinous,Kerinitis and Vouraikos streams, which are located at thehanging walls of the faults of Psathopyrgos, Aigion andEliki. Hence, high sea-level rise rates can be attributed tothe high slip rates of the faults as well as to the groundsubsidence due to sediment compaction. Nearly 19.9%of the coastline shows slower sea-level rise rates and isclassed with a rank of 3 (moderate sensitivity). Finally,36.3% and 23.1% of the coastline have significantly slowerrates (1.8 – 2.5 mm/yr and <1.8 mm/yr) and are given arank of 2 and 1, respectively. These coastline sectionsare composed of rocks or confined beach zones and lie atthe footwalls of the faults.Sea-level variation is due to the combined effects of as-tronomical and meteorological tides. In Greek waters, theastronomical tide is generally less than 10 cm. However,the overall fluctuation of sea-level exceeds 0.5 m due tometeorological forcing (differences in barometric pressure,wind and wave setup) [31]. Taking into account the tide
range variations for the Greek seas which are generallyless than 0.87 m [38], the ranges for sensitivity ranking ofthe variable of tidal range are proposed (Table 1).The tidal range is linked to both inundation and erosionhazards [20]. In this study, tidal range is ranked suchthat extremely micro-tidal (tidal range <0.2 m) coastsare at low risk and less micro-tidal (tidal range >0.8 m)coasts are at high risk. The reasoning is that althougha large tidal range dissipates wave energy, thereby lim-iting beach or cliff erosion to a brief period of high tide,it also delineates a broad zone of intertidal area whichwill be most susceptible to inundation following long-termsea-level rise [20]. Furthermore, the velocity of tidal cur-rents depends partially on the tidal range. High tidalrange is associated with stronger tidal currents, capable oferoding and transporting sediment. Therefore, macrotidalcoasts will be more sensitive than those with lesser tideranges [20]. The Gulf of Corinth is a microtidal regionwith tidal (astronomical) range <0.15 m [37]. As such, thetidal range variable is ranked according to Table 1 withthe value 1 (very low sensitivity).Wave heights are proportional to the square root of waveenergy, which is a measure of the capacity for erosion.According to the wave and wind atlas of the Hellenic571
Assessment of the Sensitivity of the Southern Coast of the Gulf of Corinth (Peloponnese, Greece) to Sea-level Rise
Figure 7. Map of the mean significant wave height for the Gulf of Corinth. The map is modified from the Wave and Wind Atlas of the HellenicSeas [38], which is based on offshore measurements taken between 1999 and 2007 (POSEIDON program). The entire northern coastof the Peloponnese is ranked as having very low sensitivity because wave heights are lower than 0.3 m.
seas [42] mean annual significant wave heights for theGreek seas are less than 1.5 m. Hence, the ranges of sens-itivity ranking for significant wave height are proposed forthe Greek coasts (Table 1).The wave climate of the coastline is dominated by offshoresignificant wave heights <0.3 m [38], according to the out-put of the wave model (POSEIDON program), which havebeen calibrated with the use of offshore field measure-ments (Fig. 7). Hence, the entire north coastline of thePeloponnese is considered to have very low sensitivity(rank 1).4.4. The CSI values
The CSI values alongside the south area range between0.58 and 9.13. The median value of the index for the studyarea is 3.96, and the standard deviation is 2.17. CSI val-ues above 6.2 are classified as having very high sensitivity.Nearly 44.9 km, corresponding to 30.5% of the total coast-line length, was assigned to this category (Fig. 8). Thegeographical distribution of the sensitivity of the north ofthe most extensive fan deltas along the western coast arecharacterized by very high levels of sensitivity, primarilydue to the low regional coastal slope, the high sensitivity
of the coastal landforms, the highly erodible lithology ofthe coastal zone and the high rates of relative sea-levelrise. Nearly 8.2% of the coastline (12.1 km) is classifiedas having high sensitivity (CSI values between 5.00 and6.20), 25.1% (25.1 km) as moderately sensitive (CSI val-ues between 3.90 and 5.00) and 21.6% (31.9 km) with lowsensitivity (CSI values between 1.60 and 3.90). Finally,values below 1.60 are assigned to the very low sensitivitycategory. 21.4 km or 14.6% of the shoreline belongs tothis very low sensitivity class (Fig. 8). The low and verylow sensitivity categories are primarily located betweenPsathopyrgos and Lampiri as well as east of Diakopto andcorrespond to steep, relatively stable, coasts composed ofhard rocks (conglomerates and limestones). Also, coastalsections characterized by tectonic uplift and which arelocated on the footwalls of the offshore extensions of theactive normal faults of Psathopyrgos, Eliki ans Xylokastroexhibit low sensitivity.In terms of the socio-economic impacts of the anticip-ated sea-level rise, most of the coastal urban areas (citiesand settlements, as well as tourism activities and facilit-ies) of the north Peloponnese are concentrated along thehighly and very highly sensitive coastal segments. Someof these constructions and facilities are already artificially
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Figure 8. Map of classification of the northern Peloponnese coastline according to the Coastal Sensitivity Index (CSI) values. The map indicatesthe sensitivity ranking of various segments of the coast based on the categorization of the CSI values into five classes by applying the“natural breaks” classification method. Inset table and bar diagram show the length (in km and percentage %) of shoreline in eachsensitivity category.
armored. Some 13.4 km along the shoreline (64.5% of thehighly and very highly sensitive coast) contains continu-ous and discontinuous urban fabric, and industrial or com-mercial units (Table 2). Additionally, a significant lengthof the highly and very highly sensitive coastal zone is oc-cupied by agricultural land. Some 36.5 km, correspondingto 80.2% of the total very highly sensitive coastal plains’shoreline, host agricultural activities. Similarly, these ag-ricultural uses extend for 6.3 km, representing 52.1% ofthe highly sensitive coast (Table 2). This finding is ofhigh importance because the primary sector, and espe-cially agricultural activity, plays a significant role in thesocioeconomic development of the study area.5. Conclusions
In this study, the relative sensitivity of the southern coastof the Gulf of Corinth to environmental changes due tothe anticipated long-term rise in sea-level is assessedwith the calculation of the CSI. Furthermore, new rangesof sensitivity rankings for some of the involved variables,such as those of shoreline change rate, tidal range andmean significant wave height, are proposed for the coastal
environment of Greece. Calculated CSI values along theshoreline of the study area vary between 0.58 and 9.13.All variables incorporated into the CSI assessment can beconsidered factors contributing to coastal change; how-ever, some variables make a larger contribution to indexvariability than others. Of the six variables, geomorpho-logy, regional coastal slope and relative sea-level riserate introduce the greatest variability to the CSI values(Fig. 9). Among the other three parameters, shorelinechange rate shows a small variation, while tidal range,and mean significant wave high have the same valuesalong the entire coastline. Pendleton et al. [40], whoassessed coastal sensitivity in 22 U.S. National Parks,concluded that 99% of index variability can be explainedby the variables of geomorphology, regional coastal slope,water level change rate and mean significant wave high,whereas tidal range, and historical shoreline change arenot as important when the index is evaluated at largescales (thousands of km).According to the criteria of coastal sensitivity, as definedin this study, an extensive segment of the north coastof the Peloponnese is of high (12.1 km) and very high(44.9 km) sensitivity. The sections of coast with high andvery high CSI ratings include low gradient coasts under-573
Assessment of the Sensitivity of the Southern Coast of the Gulf of Corinth (Peloponnese, Greece) to Sea-level Rise
Figure 9. Map showing the sensitivity classification of the northern Peloponnese coastline according to the six CSI variables. The colored parallellines all along the coast indicate the sensitivity ranking of the various segments based on each variable. a: geomorphology, b: coastalslope c: shoreline change rate, d: sea-level change rate, e: tidal range, f: mean significant wave height. The outermost line correspondsto the ranking of the coast based on the categorization of the CSI values into five sensitivity classes.
lain by unconsolidated sediments, such as coastal plains,fan delta coastlines and the aprons of coastal alluvial fansand cones. These areas are most susceptible to both in-undation and erosion. Fast rates of relative sea-level rise,caused by local processes like fault activity and sedimentcompaction, make these shoreline sections particularlysusceptible to the anticipated sea-level rise. Very highlysensitive regions are the fan deltas of Volineos, Finix,Meganitas, Selinous, Kerinitis, and Vouraikos Streams.In contrast, the steep rocky coasts between Psathopyrgosand Lampiri as well as east of Diakopto present low andvery low sensitivity. A significant length of the highly andvery highly sensitive coastal zone (42.9 km) is occupiedby economically important agricultural land, and 64.5% ofthe very highly sensitive coast hosts urban areas.In most of the coastal sensitivity and/or vulnerability as-sessment studies for the estimation of CSI-CVI values, thecoast was segmented into spatial grids. This type of seg-mentation may generalize the conditions of the CVI para-meters to different degrees, depending predominantly on
the size of the grid cells. In this study, the entire coastlineis analyzed as a line feature with the use of GIS-basedvector analysis procedures, which gives a more precise as-sessment of the sensitivity-vulnerability level of any pointalong the shoreline. Additionally, a segment-based tem-plate provides a visual representation, which may enablecoastal planners and managers to appreciate the contrastbetween the most susceptible / vulnerable areas and theleast susceptible / vulnerable areas within their studyareas. This approach can assist in prioritizing efforts toenhance the natural resilience of the coast or assist in theformation or adaptation of policies.This study provided a comprehensive detailed spatial GISdigital database of topographic, geological, and physio-geographical characteristics, as well as land cover in-formation for 148 km of shoreline, which can be renewedand expanded further to incorporate newly available data(e.g., storm surge) and include new variables (e.g., sedi-ment budget) in the future for better results of a modifiedCSI. Moreover, the integration of CSI physical variables574
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with further social, cultural and economic factors may en-able a broader assessment of the vulnerability of sectionsof the coast and the communities that live there.AcknowledgementsWe would like to thank Professor Norm Catto, an anonym-ous reviewer and Katarzyna Cyran, Managing Editor ofthe Journal, for their comments and corrections that sig-nificantly improved the paper.References
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