Nr.crt Country GDP mld (y)1 Israel 122 Italia 161.23 Japonia 82.54 Kazahstan 1.15 Kazahstan 462.76 Letonia 9.27 Liban 2.58 Lituania 11419 Republica Macedonia 377.6
10 Malaezia 5311 Mali 7.8812 Malta 25.713 Maroc 100.314 Mauritania 4.515 Mauritius 55.216 Mexic 471.217 Republica Moldova 1.418 Monaco 6.519 Mongolia 5.74420 Mozambic 1.521 Muntenegru 19.6522 Nigeria 16.723 Niger 13.724 Norvegia 214325 Olanda 47.726 Oman 9.227 Pakistan 228 Palau 1.6629 Panama 11.230 Paraguay 1600
6847.534228.251133333333
0 500 1000 1500 2000 25000.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
f(x) = − 0.0168065589430493 x + 33.8694494595178R² = 0.225513091106656
Corelograma y-x1
Column DLinear (Column D)
GDP
Tax pa
yment
0 500 1000 1500 2000 25000.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
f(x) = − 0.0168065589430493 x + 33.8694494595178R² = 0.225513091106656
Corelograma y-x1
Column DLinear (Column D)
GDP
Tax
paymen
t
-500 0 500 1,0001,5002,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
Column HLinear (Column H)
Axis Title
Axis Title
Tax payments (x1) Labor force (x2) Y estimat44.0 1.216 -1727.0 11.641 27330.0 7.111 18657.0 7.550 -469.0 18.350 52250.0 1.451 -6620.0 1.000 19211.0 11.715 41512.0 4.327 30718.0 4.514 25718.0 0.207 19913.0 0.707 25022.0 73.014 1,14127.0 0.161 11982.0 4.452 -30811.0 4.898 32440.0 0.130 455.0 3.917 -7725.0 0.856 14619.0 0.360 19242.0 4.689 4855.0 1.435 -11134.0 0.990 699.0 101.813 1,64215.0 3.416 26946.0 7.015 4432.0 4.255 13031.0 0.221 8539.0 8.078 1208.0 18.917 538
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.728771677972704R Square 0.53110815861515Adjusted R Square 0.49637542962368Standard Error 361.455934385916Observations 30
0 500 1000 1500 2000 25000.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
f(x) = − 0.0168065589430493 x + 33.8694494595178R² = 0.225513091106656
Corelograma y-x1
Column DLinear (Column D)
GDP
Tax pa
yment
0 500 1000 1500 2000 25000.000
20.00040.00060.00080.000100.000120.000
f(x) = 0.0285352457718964 x + 3.76699781261943R² = 0.441502890597982
Corelograma y-x2
GDP
Labor
force
ANOVAdf SS
Regression 2 3995626Residual 27 3527561Total 29 7523186
Coefficients Standard ErrorIntercept 355.115316112877 145.5826X Variable 1 -8.8173875188491 3.88175X Variable 2 13.4191315055373 3.198937
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation Predicted Y Residuals1 -16.5320708057503 28.532072 273.257962959911 -112.0583 186.017134683279 -103.5174 -46.1613295947153 47.261335 521.999891569844 -59.29996 -66.2829000150436 75.48297 192.186697241432 -189.6878 415.329178992906 725.67089 307.371247911147 70.22875
10 256.976300389588 -203.97611 199.180100995239 -191.312 249.976604342253 -224.27713 1140.9172584435 -1040.6214 119.206333276342 -114.70615 -308.168486970097 363.368516 323.850959519658 147.34917 4.16430245463256 -2.764318 -77.2782593166341 83.7782619 146.167404710389 -140.42320 192.415840596737 -190.91621 47.707347950679 -28.057322 -110.584543713378 127.284523 68.6090806624892 -54.909124 1642.0008644165 500.999125 268.694256553056 -220.99426 43.6506977571623 -34.450727 130.057320065767 -128.05728 84.7419310912784 -83.081929 119.636947179492 -108.437
0 500 1000 1500 2000 25000.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
f(x) = − 0.0168065589430493 x + 33.8694494595178R² = 0.225513091106656
Corelograma y-x1
Column DLinear (Column D)
GDP
Tax
paymen
t
0 500 1000 1500 2000 25000.000
20.00040.00060.00080.000100.000120.000
f(x) = 0.0285352457718964 x + 3.76699781261943R² = 0.441502890597982
Corelograma y-x2
GDP
Labo
r force
-500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
Column GLinear (Column G)
Axis Title
Axis Title
-500 0 500 1,0001,5002,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
Column HLinear (Column H)
Axis Title
Axis Title
30 538.425926652333 1061.574
-500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
Column GLinear (Column G)
Axis Title
Axis Title
Erori x2 erori x1-11 32 0.031339-150 -134 0.0316-75 -53
6 56 0.999037-444 -454-8 41 SUMMARY OUTPUT-2 18
-1,129 -1,130 Regression Statistics-373 -366 Multiple 0.728772-48 -35 R Square 0.531108-8 10 Adjusted 0.496375
-25 -13 Standard 361.4559-27 -78 Observati 30-4 23
-51 27 ANOVA-466 -460 df SS MS F-1 39 Regressio 2 3995626 1997813 15.29129-3 49 Residual 27 3527561 130650.4-5 19 Total 29 7523186-1 18
-15 22 CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value-15 38 Intercept355.1153 145.5826 2.43927 0.021569-13 20 X Variabl-8.81739 3.88175 -2.2715 0.031302
-2,041 -2,134 X Variabl13.41913 3.198937 4.194872 0.000264-44 -33-2 37 x sa aibe valorile sub 0.05. 2 30
-1 29-3 28
-1,581 -1,592 -0.28254 mai putinde 0.75
0 500 1000 1500 2000 25000.000
20.00040.00060.00080.000100.000120.000
f(x) = 0.0285352457718964 x + 3.76699781261943R² = 0.441502890597982
Corelograma y-x2
GDP
Labor
force
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0-2000
0
2000
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000120.000-2000-1000
010002000
X Variable 2 Residual Plot
X Variable 2
Resi
dual
s0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0-2000-1000
010002000
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000120.000-2000
0
2000
X Variable 2 Residual Plot
X Variable 2
Resi
dual
s0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0-2000-1000
010002000
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000120.000-2000
0
2000
X Variable 2 Residual Plot
X Variable 2
Resi
dual
s
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0-2000-1000
010002000
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000120.000-2000
0
2000
X Variable 2 Residual Plot
X Variable 2
Resi
dual
s
MS F Significance F1997813 15.29129 3.63E-05
130650.4
t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%2.43927 0.021569 56.40449 653.8261 56.40449 653.8261-2.2715 0.031302 -16.7821 -0.85269 -16.7821 -0.85269
4.194872 0.000264 6.855455 19.98281 6.855455 19.98281
Standard Residuals0.081808-0.3213
-0.296810.135509-0.170030.216426-0.543872.0806610.201362-0.58485-0.5485
-0.64305-2.98368-0.328891.0418590.422483-0.007930.240211-0.40263-0.5474
-0.080450.364953-0.157441.436477-0.63364-0.09878-0.36717-0.23821-0.31091
0 500 1000 1500 2000 25000.000
20.00040.00060.00080.000100.000120.000
f(x) = 0.0285352457718964 x + 3.76699781261943R² = 0.441502890597982
Corelograma y-x2
GDP
Labo
r force
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Column FLinear (Column F)
GDP
Yestim
at
-500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
Column GLinear (Column G)
Axis Title
Axis Title
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0-2000
0
2000
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000120.000-2000-1000
010002000
X Variable 2 Residual Plot
X Variable 2
Resi
dual
s0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0-2000-1000
010002000
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000120.000-2000
0
2000
X Variable 2 Residual Plot
X Variable 2
Resi
dual
s0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0-2000-1000
010002000
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000120.000-2000
0
2000
X Variable 2 Residual Plot
X Variable 2
Resi
dual
s
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0-2000-1000
010002000
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000120.000-2000
0
2000
X Variable 2 Residual Plot
X Variable 2
Resi
dual
s
3.043772
-500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
Column GLinear (Column G)
Axis Title
Axis Title
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.00
10
20
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.0000
10
20
X Variable 2 Residual Plot
X Variable 2
Resi
dual
s
Column1Significance F3.62645E-05 Mean 228.2511
Standard 92.99108Median 15.2Mode 9.2
Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0% Standard 509.333156.404491 653.8261 56.40449 653.8261 Sample Va259420.2
-16.7820815 -0.85269 -16.7821 -0.85269 Kurtosis 7.8376456.855454907 19.98281 6.855455 19.98281 Skewness 2.846064
Range 2141.9x sa aibe valorile sub 0.05. Minimum 1.1
Maximum 2143Sum 6847.534Count 30
0 500 1000 1500 2000 25000.00020.00040.00060.00080.000
100.000120.000
f(x) = 0.0285352457718964 x + 3.76699781261943R² = 0.441502890597982
Corelograma y-x2
GDP
Labor
force
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0-2000
0
2000
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000120.000-2000-1000
010002000
X Variable 2 Residual Plot
X Variable 2
Resi
dual
s
44.0 9.
012.0
22.0
40.0
42.0
15.0
39.0-5000
5000
X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
YPredicted Y
X Variable 1
Y
1.216
18.3504.327
73.0140.1304.6893.4168.078-5000
5000
X Variable 2 Line Fit Plot
YPredicted Y
X Variable 2
Y
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0-2000-1000
010002000
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000120.000-2000
0
2000
X Variable 2 Residual Plot
X Variable 2
Resi
dual
s
44.0 9.
012.0
22.0
40.0
42.0
15.0
39.0-5000
5000
X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
YPredicted Y
X Variable 1
Y
1.216
18.3504.327
73.0140.1304.6893.4168.078-5000
5000
X Variable 2 Line Fit Plot
YPredicted Y
X Variable 2
Y
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0-2000-1000
010002000
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000120.000-2000
0
2000
X Variable 2 Residual Plot
X Variable 2
Resi
dual
s
44.0 9.
012.0
22.0
40.0
42.0
15.0
39.0-5000
5000
X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
YPredicted Y
X Variable 1
Y
-5000
5001000150020002500
YPredicted Y
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0-2000-1000
010002000
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000120.000-2000
0
2000
X Variable 2 Residual Plot
X Variable 2
Resi
dual
s
44.0 9.
012.0
22.0
40.0
42.0
15.0
39.0-5000
5000
X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
YPredicted Y
X Variable 1
Y
1.216
18.3504.327
73.0140.1304.6893.4168.078-5000
5000
X Variable 2 Line Fit Plot
YPredicted Y
X Variable 2
Y
0 500 1000 1500 2000 25000.00020.00040.00060.00080.000
100.000120.000
f(x) = 0.0285352457718964 x + 3.76699781261943R² = 0.441502890597982
Corelograma y-x2
GDP
Labo
r force
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Column FLinear (Column F)
GDP
Yestim
at
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0-2000
0
2000
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000120.000-2000-1000
010002000
X Variable 2 Residual Plot
X Variable 2
Resi
dual
s
44.0 9.
012.0
22.0
40.0
42.0
15.0
39.0-5000
5000
X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
YPredicted Y
X Variable 1Y
1.216
18.3504.327
73.0140.1304.6893.4168.078-5000
5000
X Variable 2 Line Fit Plot
YPredicted Y
X Variable 2
Y
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0-2000-1000
010002000
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000120.000-2000
0
2000
X Variable 2 Residual Plot
X Variable 2Re
sidual
s
44.0 9.
012.0
22.0
40.0
42.0
15.0
39.0-5000
5000
X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
YPredicted Y
X Variable 1
Y
1.216
18.3504.327
73.0140.1304.6893.4168.078-5000
5000
X Variable 2 Line Fit Plot
YPredicted Y
X Variable 2
Y
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0-2000-1000
010002000
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000120.000-2000
0
2000
X Variable 2 Residual Plot
X Variable 2Re
sidual
s44.0 9.
012.0
22.0
40.0
42.0
15.0
39.0-5000
5000
X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
YPredicted Y
X Variable 1
Y
-5000
5001000150020002500
YPredicted Y
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0-2000-1000
010002000
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000120.000-2000
0
2000
X Variable 2 Residual Plot
X Variable 2Re
sidual
s44.0 9.
012.0
22.0
40.0
42.0
15.0
39.0-5000
5000
X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
YPredicted Y
X Variable 1
Y
1.216
18.3504.327
73.0140.1304.6893.4168.078-5000
5000
X Variable 2 Line Fit Plot
YPredicted Y
X Variable 2
Y
44.0 9.
012.0
22.0
40.0
42.0
15.0
39.0
04000
X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
YPredicted Y
X Variable 1
Y
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.00
10
20
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.0000
10
20
X Variable 2 Residual Plot
X Variable 2
Resi
dual
s
44.0 9.
012.0
22.0
40.0
42.0
15.0
39.0
04000
X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
YPredicted Y
X Variable 1
Y
1.216
18.3504.327
73.0140.1304.6893.4168.078
04000
X Variable 2 Line Fit Plot
YPredicted Y
X Variable 2
Y
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression StatisticsMultiple 0.728772R Square 0.531108Adjusted 0.496375Standard 361.4559Observati 30
ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F
Regressio 2 3995626 1997813 15.29129 3.63E-05Residual 27 3527561 130650.4Total 29 7523186
CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Intercept355.1153 145.5826 2.43927 0.021569 56.40449X Variabl-8.81739 3.88175 -2.2715 0.031302 -16.7821X Variabl13.41913 3.198937 4.194872 0.000264 6.855455
Significance F
Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%653.8261 56.40449 653.8261-0.85269 -16.7821 -0.8526919.98281 6.855455 19.98281
0 500 1000 1500 2000 25000.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
f(x) = − 0.0168065589430493 x + 33.8694494595178R² = 0.225513091106656
Corelograma y-x1
Column DLinear (Column D)
GDP
Tax
paymen
t
legatura liniaraasadar vom folosi un model liniar de regresie multif
0 500 1000 1500 2000 25000.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
f(x) = − 0.0168065589430493 x + 33.8694494595178R² = 0.225513091106656
Corelograma y-x1
Column DLinear (Column D)
GDP
Tax
paymen
t
0 500 1000 1500 2000 25000.00020.00040.00060.00080.000100.000120.000
f(x) = 0.0285352457718964 x + 3.76699781261943R² = 0.441502890597982
Corelograma y-x2
GDP
Labo
r force
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Column FLinear (Column F)
GDP
Yestimat
asadar vom folosi un model liniar de regresie multifY=β+βx1+βx2
0 500 1000 1500 2000 25000.000
20.00040.00060.00080.000100.000120.000
f(x) = 0.0285352457718964 x + 3.76699781261943R² = 0.441502890597982
Corelograma y-x2
GDP
Labo
r force
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Column FLinear (Column F)
GDP
Yestimat
cautam minimizarea sumei patratelor erorilor
Coefficients Standard ErrorIntercept 355.11531611288 145.582603500419X Variable 1 -8.817387518849 3.88175045522956X Variable 2 13.419131505537 3.19893705671099
prin rezolvarea sistemului de ecuatii , obtinem estimarea punctuala a parametriloracest output genereaza automat parametrii modelului ce minimizeaza suma patratelor erorilorpib=355+ tax payment*-8,81+ labor force * 13.4
INTERVAL DE INCREDERE DE 95%pentru ca esantionul este mic putem face o deviatie standard a fiecarui parametru
intervalele de incredere pentru parametri la un nivel de incredere de 95% sunt: β1ϵ[-16.78,-0.85]β2ϵ[6.85,19.98]
stiind eroarea standard pentru ambii parametri, putem construi un interval de incredere pentru fiecare dupa modelul :
t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%2.439270267013 0.0215691188772148 56.4044910046585 653.826141221095-2.27149777415 0.0313015856228484 -16.7820814689919 -0.85269356870634.194872005182 0.000263814615726459 6.85545490748384 19.9828081035908
prin rezolvarea sistemului de ecuatii , obtinem estimarea punctuala a parametriloracest output genereaza automat parametrii modelului ce minimizeaza suma patratelor erorilor
pentru ca esantionul este mic putem face o deviatie standard a fiecarui parametru
intervalele de incredere pentru parametri la un nivel de incredere de 95% sunt: stiind eroarea standard pentru ambii parametri, putem construi un interval de incredere pentru fiecare dupa modelul : βϵ[β1±tα/2*seβx]
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%56.404491004659 653.826141221095-16.78208146899 -0.85269356870636.8554549074838 19.9828081035908
tre sa stiu cum se calculeaza eroarea standard
testarea semnificatiei modelului liniar de regresie multifactorialapentru testarea modelului de regresie vom urmari sa determinam daca coeficientul de determinatie Rpatrat este semnificativ din punct de vedere statisticvom folosi testul Fipotezele testate vor fi :
ANOVA f calculatdf SS MS F
Regressio 2 3995626 1997813 15.29129Residual 27 3527561 130650.4Total 29 7523186
F critic= 0.025
prin compararea testului F cu valoarea lui critica , observam ca F calculat > F critic -> respingem ipoteza nula , deci putem conclude ca modelul in ansamblu este semnificativ din punct de vedere statisticsi exista o corelatie semnificativa statistic intre cel putin 1 pereche de parametri.
H0: β1=β2=0H1:β1≠β2
testarea semnificatiei modelului liniar de regresie multifactorialapentru testarea modelului de regresie vom urmari sa determinam daca coeficientul de determinatie Rpatrat este semnificativ din punct de vedere statistic
f calculatSignificance F 0.025342 este f critic3.62645E-05
prin compararea testului F cu valoarea lui critica , observam ca F calculat > F critic -> respingem ipoteza nula , deci putem conclude ca modelul in ansamblu este semnificativ din punct de vedere statisticsi exista o corelatie semnificativa statistic intre cel putin 1 pereche de parametri.
pentru testarea modelului de regresie vom urmari sa determinam daca coeficientul de determinatie Rpatrat este semnificativ din punct de vedere statistic
prin compararea testului F cu valoarea lui critica , observam ca F calculat > F critic -> respingem ipoteza nula , deci putem conclude ca modelul in ansamblu este semnificativ din punct de vedere statisticsi exista o corelatie semnificativa statistic intre cel putin 1 pereche de parametri.
prin compararea testului F cu valoarea lui critica , observam ca F calculat > F critic -> respingem ipoteza nula , deci putem conclude ca modelul in ansamblu este semnificativ din punct de vedere statisticsi exista o corelatie semnificativa statistic intre cel putin 1 pereche de parametri.
prin compararea testului F cu valoarea lui critica , observam ca F calculat > F critic -> respingem ipoteza nula , deci putem conclude ca modelul in ansamblu este semnificativ din punct de vedere statisticsi exista o corelatie semnificativa statistic intre cel putin 1 pereche de parametri.
prin testarea fiecarui parametru al modelului de regresie urmarim verificarrea semnificatiei fiecarui parametru in parte. Pentru acest lucru vom folosi testul t. ipotezele testate vor fi :
0.03163 t critic
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-valueIntercept355.1153161 145.5826035 2.43927 0.021569118877X Variabl-8.81738752 3.8817504552 -2.2715 0.031301585623X Variabl13.41913151 3.1989370567 4.194872 0.000263814616
observam ca atat interceptul cat si indicele , cat si tax payment si labor force au valori tstat > t critic. Concluzia pe baza testului t este ca toti parametrii sunt semnificativi din punct de vedere statistic la un nivel de incredere de 95%
H0: β1=0H1: β1≠0
prin testarea fiecarui parametru al modelului de regresie urmarim verificarrea semnificatiei fiecarui parametru in parte. Pentru acest lucru vom folosi testul t.
Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%56.404491005 653.82614122 56.4044910047 653.826141221095-16.78208147 -0.852693569 -16.782081469 -0.85269356870636.8554549075 19.982808104 6.85545490748 19.9828081035908
observam ca atat interceptul cat si indicele , cat si tax payment si labor force au valori tstat > t critic. Concluzia pe baza testului t este ca toti parametrii sunt semnificativi din punct de vedere statistic la un nivel de incredere de 95%
prin testarea fiecarui parametru al modelului de regresie urmarim verificarrea semnificatiei fiecarui parametru in parte. Pentru acest lucru vom folosi testul t.
observam ca atat interceptul cat si indicele , cat si tax payment si labor force au valori tstat > t critic. Concluzia pe baza testului t este ca toti parametrii sunt semnificativi din punct de vedere statistic la un nivel de incredere de 95%
observam ca atat interceptul cat si indicele , cat si tax payment si labor force au valori tstat > t critic. Concluzia pe baza testului t este ca toti parametrii sunt semnificativi din punct de vedere statistic la un nivel de incredere de 95%
Datele nu reprezinta erori de masura
limitele intre care se vor afla datele sunt : …pun tabelul cu toate valorilenu exista erori de masurare
1. testarea liniaritatii modelului
PENTRU TESTAREA ACESTEI IPOTEZE VOM VERIFICA DACA DATELE PENTRU Y SE AFLA IN INTERVALUL mediei lui x
-1299 1755
PENTRU TESTAREA ACESTEI IPOTEZE VOM VERIFICA DACA DATELE PENTRU Y SE AFLA IN INTERVALUL mediei lui x ±3sigma(standard deviation)
Testarea liniarității modeluluiPentru testarea liniarității modelului, am folosit procedeul grafic. Corelograma este realizată între valorile reale al variabilei dependente, y și valorile previzionate ale lui y.Se observă din corelogramă că există o legătura liniară între cele 2 variabile.
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Column FLinear (Column F)
GDP
Yestimat
Pentru testarea liniarității modelului, am folosit procedeul grafic. Corelograma este realizată între valorile reale al variabilei dependente, y și valorile previzionate ale lui y.Se observă din corelogramă că există o legătura liniară între cele 2 variabile.
0.0313 t critic
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Column FLinear (Column F)
GDP
Yestimat
Pentru testarea liniarității modelului, am folosit procedeul grafic. Corelograma este realizată între valorile reale al variabilei dependente, y și valorile previzionate ale lui y.
Testarea normalității erorilorAceastă ipoteză presupune că erorile modelului urmează o distribuție normală. Erorile ar trebui să fie aleatoare, altfel această presupoziție nu ar fi validă.
95 % din erori ar trebui să se afle în intervalul , adică, în cazul nostru, pentru t critic = 2,05, [-11.03,11.03]. Observăm că, cu excepția unei observații, erorile se află în acest interval, fapt ce poate fi atribut marjei de eroare.
-500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
Column GLinear (Column G)
Axis Title
Axis Title
Această ipoteză presupune că erorile modelului urmează o distribuție normală. Erorile ar trebui să fie aleatoare, altfel această presupoziție nu ar fi validă.
0.0316 t critic
fac si cealalta variabila
364.45
= 2,05, [-11.03,11.03]. Observăm că, cu excepția unei observații, erorile se află în acest interval, fapt ce poate fi atribut marjei de eroare.
-500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
Column GLinear (Column G)
Axis Title
Axis Title
Această ipoteză presupune că erorile modelului urmează o distribuție normală. Erorile ar trebui să fie aleatoare, altfel această presupoziție nu ar fi validă.
= 2,05, [-11.03,11.03]. Observăm că, cu excepția unei observații, erorile se află în acest interval, fapt ce poate fi atribut marjei de eroare.
Testarea homoscedasticitățiimodeluluiHomoscedaticitatea modelului presupune că variabila reziduală (seria erorilor modelului) are medie nulă, iar dispersia ei este constantă și independentă de x.
Graficele de mai jos prezintă relația dintre cele 2 variabile independente si valorile reziduale. Putem observa că există o tendință de heteroscedasticitate pe car o vom testa ulterior
GDP mld (y) Tax payments (x1)Residuals1600 8.0 293.1442
462.7 9.0 -691.0022143 9.0 989.29821141 11.0 293.6063
471.2 11.0 -376.194377.6 12.0 -316.6425.7 13.0 -515.38647.7 15.0 -187.077
53 18.0 277.68477.88 18.0 232.564711.2 39.0 8.1139661.4 40.0 -2.61345
19.65 42.0 13.7817212 44.0 4.276897
9.2 46.0 -0.377939.2 50.0 -4.087596.5 55.0 -11.4247
16.7 55.0 -1.224661.1 57.0 -18.6795
55.2 82.0 12.23517
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.7365883408462R Square 0.54256238387056Adjusted R Square 0.48538268185438Standard Error 536.415222221327Observations 10
ANOVAdf SS
Regression 1 2730298Residual 8 2301930Total 9 5032228
Coefficients Standard ErrorIntercept 2532.08828178694 639.429X Variable 1 -153.15405498282 49.71925
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation Predicted Y Residuals1 1306.8558419244 293.14422 1153.70178694158 -691.0023 1153.70178694158 989.29824 847.393676975945 293.60635 847.393676975945 -376.1946 694.239621993127 -316.647 541.085567010309 -515.3868 234.777457044674 -187.0779 -224.68470790378 277.6847
10 -224.68470790378 232.5647
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.75713790429885R Square 0.57325780612605Adjusted R Square 0.51991503189181Standard Error 10.7725957394454Observations 10
ANOVAdf SS
Regression 1 1247.14Residual 8 928.3906Total 9 2175.53
Coefficients Standard Error
Intercept -33.083103448276 14.82472X Variable 1 0.92741379310345 0.282902
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation Predicted Y Residuals1 3.08603448275862 8.1139662 4.01344827586207 -2.613453 5.86827586206896 13.781724 7.72310344827586 4.2768975 9.57793103448276 -0.377936 13.2875862068966 -4.087597 17.9246551724138 -11.42478 17.9246551724138 -1.224669 19.7794827586207 -18.6795
10 42.9648275862069 12.23517
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.7365883408462R Square 0.54256238387056Adjusted R Square 0.48538268185438Standard Error 536.415222221327Observations 10
ANOVAdf SS
Regression 1 2730298Residual 8 2301930Total 9 5032228
Coefficients Standard ErrorIntercept 2532.08828178694 639.429X Variable 1 -153.15405498282 49.71925
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation Predicted Y Residuals1 1306.8558419244 293.1442
2 1153.70178694158 -691.0023 1153.70178694158 989.29824 847.393676975945 293.60635 847.393676975945 -376.1946 694.239621993127 -316.647 541.085567010309 -515.3868 234.777457044674 -187.0779 -224.68470790378 277.6847
10 -224.68470790378 232.5647
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.7365883408462R Square 0.54256238387056Adjusted R Square 0.48538268185438Standard Error 536.415222221327Observations 10
ANOVAdf SS
Regression 1 2730298
Residual 8 2301930Total 9 5032228
Coefficients Standard ErrorIntercept 2532.08828178694 639.429X Variable 1 -153.15405498282 49.71925
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation Predicted Y Residuals1 1306.8558419244 293.14422 1153.70178694158 -691.0023 1153.70178694158 989.29824 847.393676975945 293.60635 847.393676975945 -376.1946 694.239621993127 -316.647 541.085567010309 -515.3868 234.777457044674 -187.0779 -224.68470790378 277.6847
10 -224.68470790378 232.5647
Homoscedaticitatea modelului presupune că variabila reziduală (seria erorilor modelului) are medie nulă, iar dispersia ei este constantă și independentă de x.Graficele de mai jos prezintă relația dintre cele 2 variabile independente si valorile reziduale. Putem observa că există o tendință de heteroscedasticitate pe car o vom testa ulterior
Eipatrat85933.5 Fcalculat #REF!
477483.5 fcritic 3.438101978711
86204.67141521.7100260.7265622.334997.9777108.8
54086.3465.836446.830112189.935918.29184 SUMMARY OUTPUT0.14283216.70836 Regression Statistics130.5227 Multiple 0.5429581.49978 R Square 0.294803
348.9231 Adjusted 0.255626149.6994 Standard 521.7614928.3906 Observati 20
ANOVAdf SS
Regressio 1 2048513Residual 18 4900229Total 19 6948742
CoefficientsStandard ErrorIntercept801.4192 209.6506X Variabl-15.0733 5.494905
RESIDUAL OUTPUTMS F Significance F
2730298 9.488724 0.015108 ObservationPredicted Y Residuals287741.3 1 680.8331 919.1669
2 665.7598 -203.063 665.7598 1477.24
t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0% 4 635.6132 505.38683.959921 0.004177 1057.562 4006.614 1057.562 4006.614 5 635.6132 -164.413-3.08038 0.015108 -267.807 -38.5012 -267.807 -38.5012 6 620.54 -242.94
7 605.4667 -579.7678 575.3202 -527.629 530.1003 -477.1
10 530.1003 -522.2211 213.5616 -202.36212 198.4883 -197.08813 168.3418 -148.69214 138.1952 -126.19515 108.0487 -98.848716 47.75561 -38.555617 -27.6108 34.1107518 -27.6108 44.3107519 -57.7573 58.857320 -434.589 489.7891
MS F Significance F1247.14 10.74668 0.011218
116.0488
t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
-2.23162 0.056155 -67.269 1.102772 -67.269 1.1027723.278213 0.011218 0.27504 1.579787 0.27504 1.579787
MS F Significance F2730298 9.488724 0.015108
287741.3
t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%3.959921 0.004177 1057.562 4006.614 1057.562 4006.614-3.08038 0.015108 -267.807 -38.5012 -267.807 -38.5012
287741.3
t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%3.959921 0.004177 1057.562 4006.614 1057.562 4006.614-3.08038 0.015108 -267.807 -38.5012 -267.807 -38.5012
6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0020
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
Homoscedaticitatea modelului presupune că variabila reziduală (seria erorilor modelului) are medie nulă, iar dispersia ei este constantă și independentă de x.Graficele de mai jos prezintă relația dintre cele 2 variabile independente si valorile reziduale. Putem observa că există o tendință de heteroscedasticitate pe car o vom testa ulterior
MS F Significance F2048513 7.524797 0.013367
272234.9
t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%3.822642 0.001247 360.9597 1241.879 360.9597 1241.879-2.74314 0.013367 -26.6176 -3.52891 -26.6176 -3.52891
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0-2000
2000
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0-2000
2000
X Variable 1 Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
GDP mld (y) Labor force (x2) ResidualsEipatrat12 1.216 -12.8542 165.2312
161.2 11.641 -241.255 58204.0582.5 7.111 -155.875 24297.121.1 7.550 -253.176 64098.2
462.7 18.350 -182.76 33401.199.2 1.451 -24.1661 584.00032.5 1.000 -14.5306 211.13711141 11.715 735.8645 541496.6
377.6 4.327 240.0631 57630.3153 4.514 -91.3101 8337.542
19.65 4.689 -136.938 18751.916.7 1.435 -67.9152 4612.47813.7 0.990 -61.0727 3729.8712143 101.813 -161.787 26175.0447.7 3.416 -80.7312 6517.5289.2 7.015 -198.834 39535.07
2 4.255 -144.988 21021.611.66 0.221 -56.1038 3147.64111.2 8.078 -220.346 48552.291600 18.917 1128.716 1274000
1446043
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.568083R Square 0.322718Adjusted R Square 0.238058Standard Error 313.9318Observations 10
ANOVAdf SS MS
Regression 1 375676.7 375676.7Residual 8 788425.4 98553.17Total 9 1164102
CoefficientsStandard Error t StatIntercept -19.1902 161.808 -0.1186X Variable 1 36.22071 18.55176 1.952414
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation Predicted Y Residuals1 24.85423 -12.85422 402.4552 -241.2553 238.3753 -155.8754 254.2762 -253.1765 645.4599 -182.766 33.3661 -24.16617 17.03056 -14.53068 405.1355 735.86459 137.5369 240.0631
10 144.3101 -91.3101
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.862908R Square 0.744611Adjusted R Square 0.712687Standard Error 425.1534Observations 10
ANOVAdf SS MS
Regression 1 4216075 4216075Residual 8 1446043 180755.4Total 9 5662118
CoefficientsStandard Error t StatIntercept 52.87574 151.1521 0.349818X Variable 1 22.11811 4.579726 4.829571
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation Predicted Y Residuals1 156.5876 -136.9382 84.61523 -67.91523 74.77267 -61.07274 2304.787 -161.7875 128.4312 -80.73126 208.0343 -198.8347 146.9883 -144.9888 57.76384 -56.10389 231.5458 -220.346
10 471.2841 1128.716
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression StatisticsMultiple R 65535R Square -5.9E-16Adjusted R Square -0.05556Standard Error 22.65722Observations 20
ANOVAdf SS MS
Regression 1 -5.5E-12 -5.5E-12Residual 18 9240.289 513.3494Total 19 9240.289
CoefficientsStandard Error t StatIntercept 10.9852 5.066307 2.168285X Variable 1 6.54E-17 0.015157 4.31E-15
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation Predicted Y Residuals1 10.9852 -9.76922 10.9852 0.65583 10.9852 -3.87424 10.9852 -3.43525 10.9852 7.36486 10.9852 -9.53427 10.9852 -9.98528 10.9852 0.72989 10.9852 -6.6582
10 10.9852 -6.471211 10.9852 -6.296212 10.9852 -9.550213 10.9852 -9.995214 10.9852 90.827815 10.9852 -7.569216 10.9852 -3.970217 10.9852 -6.730218 10.9852 -10.764219 10.9852 -2.907220 10.9852 7.9318
fcalculat #REF!fcritic 3.438101
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
ObservationPredicted Y Residuals1 10.9852 -9.76922 10.9852 0.65583 10.9852 -3.87424 10.9852 -3.43525 10.9852 7.3648
F Significance F 6 10.9852 -9.53423.811919 0.086668 7 10.9852 -9.9852
8 10.9852 0.72989 10.9852 -6.6582
10 10.9852 -6.4712P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0% 11 10.9852 -6.2962
0.908518 -392.32 353.9398 -392.32 353.9398 12 10.9852 -9.55020.086668 -6.55973 79.00115 -6.55973 79.00115 13 10.9852 -9.9952
14 10.9852 90.827815 10.9852 -7.569216 10.9852 -3.970217 10.9852 -6.730218 10.9852 -10.764219 10.9852 -2.907220 10.9852 7.9318
F Significance F23.32475 0.001305
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%0.735506 -295.682 401.4332 -295.682 401.43320.001305 11.55724 32.67898 11.55724 32.67898
F Significance F-1.1E-14 #NUM!
-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400-50050
100
Labor force Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%0.043783 0.341283 21.62912 0.341283 21.62912
1 -0.03184 0.031844 -0.03184 0.031844
-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400-50050100
Labor force Residual Plot
X Variable 1
Resi
dual
s
tabele
GDP mld (y) Labor force (x Residuals Eipatrat12 1.216 -12.8542300478 165.231230122
161.2 11.641 -241.255156038 58204.050314882.5 7.111 -155.875329205 24297.11825471.1 7.550 -253.176221915 64098.1993434
462.7 18.350 -182.759915027 33401.18654089.2 1.451 -24.1660974442 584.0002656832.5 1.000 -14.5305561856 211.137063062
1141 11.715 735.8645112502 541496.578918377.6 4.327 240.0631339086 57630.308262
53 4.514 -91.3101392962 8337.541538297.88 0.207 788425.3517325.7 0.707100.3 73.0144.5 0.161
55.2 4.452471.2 4.8981.4 0.1306.5 3.917
5.744 0.8561.5 0.360
19.65 4.689 -136.937562326 18751.895975916.7 1.435 -67.915227958 4612.4781885913.7 0.990 -61.0726684024 3729.870825792143 101.813 -161.787010139 26175.036649847.7 3.416 -80.7312065639 6517.527713269.2 7.015 -198.834289352 39535.074622
2 4.255 -144.988301996 21021.60771561.66 0.221 -56.1038407659 3147.6409486811.2 8.078 -220.345841728 48552.28996691600 18.917 1128.715949231 1273999.69405
1446043.11666
GDP mld (y) Tax payments (xResiduals Eipatrat1600 8.0 293.144158076 85933.5
462.7 9.0 -691.00178694 477483.52143 9.0 989.298213058 9787111141 11.0 293.606323024 86204.67
471.2 11.0 -376.19367698 141521.7377.6 12.0 -316.63962199 100260.725.7 13.0 -515.38556701 265622.347.7 15.0 -187.07745704 34997.9753 18.0 277.684707904 77108.8
7.88 18.0 232.564707904 54086.341.5 19.0 23019302.5 20.0
100.3 22.05.744 25.0161.2 27.04.5 27.082.5 30.01.66 31.0
2 32.013.7 34.011.2 39.0 8.11396551724 65.836441.4 40.0 -2.6134482759 6.830112
19.65 42.0 13.7817241379 189.935912 44.0 4.27689655172 18.29184
9.2 46.0 -0.3779310345 0.1428329.2 50.0 -4.0875862069 16.708366.5 55.0 -11.424655172 130.522716.7 55.0 -1.2246551724 1.499781.1 57.0 -18.679482759 348.923155.2 82.0 12.2351724138 149.6994
928.3906