Pascal&Royer,Bou/n1,&Dominique&Berteaux1&and&Gilles&Gauthier2,&Joël&Bêty1&1&Université&du&Québec&à&Rimouski,&2&Université&Laval&

December'10,'2014'

…is'a'determinant'parameter'for'animal'popula9on'biology''…varies'greatly'year'a=er'year'for'Arc9c?nes9ng'birds''

©'Pascal'Royer?Bou9n'

…should'be'linked'indirectly'to'lemming'cycles'

from'Summers'et'al.'(1986)'Bird'Study.'

1950s' 1960s' 1970s' 1980s'

©'Gerrit'Vyn'

©'Pascal'Royer?Bou9n' ©'Pascal'Royer?Bou9n' ©'Clément'Chevallier'

! ©'Pascal'Royer?Bou9n' ©'Pascal'Royer?Bou9n' ©'Clément'Chevallier'

! ©'Pascal'Royer?Bou9n' ©'Pascal'Royer?Bou9n' ©'Clément'Chevallier'

Change'in'predator'abundance&

Change'in'predator'behavior&

Limited'empirical'support,''…especially'in'the'Canadian'Arc9c.''LiTle'is'known'about'the'underlying'mechanisms…''Most'likely'vary'among'species…'

Objectives Study'the'indirect'effects'of'lemming&popula/on&cycle&on' interannual' varia9on' in' reproduc/ve& success& of&Arc/c,nes/ng& birds& using' different' an9predator'strategies.''Inves9gate'for'differences&among&bird&species& in'this'indirect'trophic'rela9onship.'

Study area

in'Sirmilik'Na9onal'Park,'near'Pond'Inlet,'NU'

Bylot&Island&field&sta/on&

©'Isabelle'Laurion'

©'Pascal'Royer?Bou9n'

Methods

©'Andréanne'Beardsell'

1.&Nest&monitoring&of&several&bird&species&

Since'1995…'

Since'2005…'

Methods

Since'2005…'

©'Nicolas'BradeTe'

Arc/c&fox&is&the&m

ain&nest&predator

&on&Bylot&island&!&

Snap?trapping'since'1994'

Methods 2.&Monitoring&of&lemming&and&arc/c&fox&popula/ons&

Lemmings' Arc/c&fox'•  Den'monitoring'(since'1995)'•  Live?trapping'(since'2003)'•  Satellite'tracking'collar'(since'2007)'

Live?trapping'since'2004'

©'Pierre?Yves'L’Hérault'

©'Dominique'Berteaux'

Results Effect&of&lemming&abundance'A'

Greater snow goose

Dai

ly n

est s

urvi

val p

roba

bilit

y

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00American golden plover

Sandpipers

Lemming density (ind./ha)

Dai

ly n

est s

urvi

val p

roba

bilit

y

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00Lapland longspur

Lemming density (ind./ha)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Greater snow goose

Dai

ly n

est s

urvi

val p

roba

bilit

y

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00American golden plover

Sandpipers

Lemming density (ind./ha)

Dai

ly n

est s

urvi

val p

roba

bilit

y

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00Lapland longspur

Lemming density (ind./ha)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Nest'success'probability'

Lemming'density'(ind./ha)'

…should'reflect'the'change'in'predator&behavior&

Greater snow goose

Dai

ly n

est s

urvi

val p

roba

bilit

y

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0American golden plover

Sandpipers

Lemming density (ind./ha)

Dai

ly n

est s

urvi

val p

roba

bilit

y

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0Lapland longspur

Lemming density (ind./ha)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Greater snow goose

Dai

ly n

est s

urvi

val p

roba

bilit

y

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0American golden plover

Sandpipers

Lemming density (ind./ha)

Dai

ly n

est s

urvi

val p

roba

bilit

y

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0Lapland longspur

Lemming density (ind./ha)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Greater snow goose

Dai

ly n

est s

urvi

val p

roba

bilit

y

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0American golden plover

Sandpipers

Lemming density (ind./ha)

Dai

ly n

est s

urvi

val p

roba

bilit

y

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0Lapland longspur

Lemming density (ind./ha)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Greater snow goose

Dai

ly n

est s

urvi

val p

roba

bilit

y

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0American golden plover

Sandpipers

Lemming density (ind./ha)

Dai

ly n

est s

urvi

val p

roba

bilit

y

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0Lapland longspur

Lemming density (ind./ha)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Results Effect&of&PREVIOUS&YEAR&lemming&abundance&B'

Lapland'longspur'

Nest'success'probability'

…should'reflect'the'change'in'predator&abundance&0 5 10 150.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Nes

t suc

cess

pro

babi

lity

Lemming density (t0)

0 5 10 150.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Nes

t suc

cess

pro

babi

lity

Lemming density (t-1)Previous'year'lemming'density'

Results Effect&of&PREVIOUS&YEAR&lemming&abundance&B'

Lapland'longspur'

Nest'success'probability'

…should'reflect'the'change'in'predator&abundance&0 5 10 150.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Nes

t suc

cess

pro

babi

lity

Lemming density (t0)

0 5 10 150.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Nes

t suc

cess

pro

babi

lity

Lemming density (t-1)

0 5 10 150.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Nes

t suc

cess

pro

babi

lity

Lemming density (t0)

0 5 10 150.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Nes

t suc

cess

pro

babi

lity

Lemming density (t-1)

0 5 10 150.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0Greater snow goose (1995-2013)

Lemming density (t-1)

Nes

t suc

cess

pro

babi

lity Greater'snow'goose'

Previous'year'lemming'density'

0 5 10 150.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0DURING&A&&LEMMING&CRASH&YEAR&

Results Effect&of&PREVIOUS&YEAR&lemming&abundance&B'

Lapland'longspur'

Nest'success'probability'

…should'reflect'the'change'in'predator&abundance&0 5 10 150.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Nes

t suc

cess

pro

babi

lity

Lemming density (t0)

0 5 10 150.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Nes

t suc

cess

pro

babi

lity

Lemming density (t-1)

0 5 10 150.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Nes

t suc

cess

pro

babi

lity

Lemming density (t0)

0 5 10 150.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Nes

t suc

cess

pro

babi

lity

Lemming density (t-1)

0 5 10 150.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0Greater snow goose (1995-2013)

Lemming density (t-1)

Nes

t suc

cess

pro

babi

lity Greater'snow'goose'

0 5 10 150.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0 5 10 150.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0DURING&A&&LEMMING&PEAK&

Previous'year'lemming'density'

Arc$c%fox%produc$vity%

Lemming%abundance%

Year%

Arc$c%fox%response%to%lemming%cycles%C%

2007% 2009% 2011% 2013%

Arc$c%fox%abundance%

Arc9c'fox'abundance'

Arc9c'fox'produc9vity'

Lemming'abundance'

Nes

t suc

cess

pro

babi

lity

Min

imum

Adu

lt Fo

x N

umbe

r

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

010203040506070

Year%

Arc/c&fox&response&to&lemming&cycles'C'

2007' 2009' 2011' 2013'

Arc9c'fox'abundance'

Arc9c'fox'produc9vity'

Lemming'abundance'

Nes

t suc

cess

pro

babi

lity

Min

imum

Adu

lt Fo

x N

umbe

r

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

010203040506070

Arc/c&fox&response&to&lemming&cycles'C'

Year%

Nest'success'greater'snow'goose'

Nes

t suc

cess

pro

babi

lity

lapland'longspur'

2007' 2009' 2011' 2013'

Arc9c'fox'abundance'

Arc9c'fox'produc9vity'

Lemming'abundance'

Nes

t suc

cess

pro

babi

lity

Min

imum

Adu

lt Fo

x N

umbe

r

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

010203040506070

Arc/c&fox&response&to&lemming&cycles'C'

Year%

Nest'success'greater'snow'goose'

Nes

t suc

cess

pro

babi

lity

lapland'longspur'

2007' 2009' 2011' 2013'

Arc9c'fox'produc9vity'

Lemming'abundance'

Arc9c'fox'abundance'

Nest'success'

2012'

2011' 2012'

Conclusion Results'support'the'“Alterna9ve'Prey'Hypothesis”'while'emphasizing…'

•  interspecific'differences'in'how'lemmings'affect'bird'reproduc9ve'success'

•  the'importance'of'the'prey?switching'behavior'of'shared'predators'for'alterna9ve'preys'in'the'arc9c'tundra.''

Acknowledgements Joël&Bêty&

Catherine'Doucet'Fanny'Senez?Gagnon'Jean?François'Lamarre'Don?Jean'Léandri?Breton'

Pierre'Legagneux'

Dominique&Berteaux&Clément'Chevallier'

Sandra'Laï'

Gilles&Gauthier&Marie?Chris9ne'Cadieux'Dominique'Fauteux'

Many'thanks'to…%

…and'many'others!'

Questions?

©'Arnaud'Tarroux'

mmm?