RESTRICTED FII.FR. I7}IWVY - AE7 Vol. 2 This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION AND PROSPECTS OF TANZANIA (in two volumes) VOLUME II ANNEX AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT March 18A 1970 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
Transcript
RESTRICTED
FII.FR. I7}IWVY - AE7Vol. 2
This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations.They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report maynot be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views.
INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION
AND PROSPECTS
OF
TANZANIA
(in two volumes)
VOLUME II
ANNEX
AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT
March 18A 1970
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EQUIVALENTS
Currency
1 Tanzania Shilling = U.S. $0.14U.S. $1 = Sh 7.14b St. 1 = Sh 17.1428
Weight
Unless otherwise stated, tons in thisReport refer to long tons of 2240 lbs.
Tanzania - Parastatal Organizations Abbreviations
State Trading Corporation .. ......... ............ S.T.C.+arwo 1 A P.gric1lre 2sti Fooned r'nrnrnation ......... G
Tea Authority ...........rII<nzyvis~nI f Sl rn'rq t7i J n -.-.-.-. -- T.S.G.
The National Milling Corporation ...... .................. N.M.C.int a-id Seed Ma-ketinlg Board n- ..=..=.===.===.= .===== -LT.S=M=B
Tanzania Tobacco Board .......... *....... *............. . . T.T.B.
National Dairy Board . ...... ...................... N.D.B.Na tio naI vel opm.et fr-AA t Age-nc . . . . . . . . . . --a. ?KT .. *l N. A
National Cooperative Bank ............. . ........... N.C.B.Ila UtI.Lonaul. J- .-a Ba ... .O- . ............ - . .... .. .... L4 'a.,
C. Mission Assessment of Agriculture in the Second Plan 35
III. TOWARDS A STRATEGY FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN TANZANIA 39
A. Governmental Organization .39B. High Level Manpower .41C. Research .48D. Small-Scale Farming .51E. Mechanization. 55F. Smallholder Irrigation ........ *..**.......V...*...... 60G. Rural Water Supply .. 61H. Appraisal of Large-Scale Farming .. 64I. Large-Scale Government Irrigation Schemes. 69J. The Ujamaa Village Program .71K. Annual Planning: Implementation, Evaluation and Revision 75
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
MAPS
THE ECONOMIC DETELOPIMNT AND PROSPECTS OF TANZANIA
VOLUYIE II
SUIMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
i. The performance of the agricultural sector during the period1960-68 is impressive, but uneven in terms both of commodities andgeographical location. Among the principal crops, the value of cottonand coffee was subjected to weather-induced fluctuations within a risingtrend, but the value of sisal underwent a marked decline owing to a steepfall in prices. There has, however, been a steady rise in the output o:fsome of the smaller crops, particularly casheijnuts, tea, tobacco, pyrethrumand sugar. The growth of food production was probably somewhat higherthan the growith of population.
ii. In terms of the broad strategy for agricultural development,the First Plan empnhasized both the 'transformationl and 'improvement'approaches. The former approach, which was based on village settlementsand also other nrograms which were highly capital-intensive, w-s shelvedin 1966, owing to its high cost relative to returns. On the other hand,the latter apnroch whi-h focused on extension and marketing services andalso crop-oriented research was relatively more successful, as evidenced.bhv t+h sttApdv grow+h in +he marketed oututof cf rops-by hpr art prodcer.
;;;1 - ~ 'n~m1 7 rnlAa +. in i~ cc+ +.n or.v'Sr'i,l +,iv.c ~r1n="n l l-vrr 0 U-b, eA n1964 and 1968, reflecting the decline of the sisal industry. Althought-here was onY , increa.se in., -- 'I non-agric -, i. Jt was inadequa
to offset the trend in agriculture, until 1968. Therefore, the additionsto the total 1la,bor- force h',ad- to bDe abL'sorbI,ed , 4by -h ag- -cu t4u--r -- 4ector
; wr 7> ~.>; .- - +h ̂ 24 I + 7 , VU Q +h A0 V^~J x A_ An s .- .. LOr E JU s >L U VW11 wmrao C wF D;sA G >s
while incomes of peasant producers fluctuated reflecting changes inporl j pice 40 for the prnincipal exL p I ort. ThIJ eD L pJ V oL sLUII U l alUU±CI±
services was also urban-biased, and a disproportionately large share oftotl i nvestmnent was also in the -ubar areas.
vI The elements of a nrew strategy for spreadinIg ihe benefits ofdevelopment more evenly throughout the country began to emerge in theclosing stages of the First Plan. At Lthe center of ihe program forrural development in the new Plan is the establishment of Ujamaa villages.Tilese villages in which people live and work togeTher as a community willalso serve as an efficient means of providing social and technical services,witnin the framework of cooperative effort and self-help.
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vi. The Second Plan (1969/70 - 1973/74) aims at increasing thecontribution of the agricultural sector to GDP (including subsistenceoutput) from Sh 3,110 million in 1968/69 to Sh 3,985 million in 1973/74,at constant 1968/69 prices. The output of marketed agriculture is expectedto increase from SI-h 1,480 million in 1968/69 to Sh 2,095 million in 1973/7h -
an increase of Sh 615 million. The mission has assessed the physical outputtargets and prices on a commodity by commodity basis and concludes thatmarketed output could increase from Sh 1,270 million in 1968 to Sh 1,87t,million in 1973 or only about Sh 10 million short of the Plan target.Although the Plan and mission estimates are very close, this is a coin-cidence, since the mission projects much lower values than the Plan formany products, particularly cotton, and a substantially higher valuefor coffee which largely offsets the shortfalls in the other crops.The outlook for coffee prices has undergone a substantial improvement,following the frost in Brazil which has resulted in a fall in output;it is expected that it will be another 3-4 years before there is arecovery in Brazilian production.
vii. Most of the production targets of the Plan are feasible. Thetargets for tea and tobacco - two rapidly growing crops - are realisticand may even be exceeded. since they are based on very specific programsand institutional arrangements. The situation concerning cotton is lessdepfinite since. although the Plan target is technically feasible, thereis a lack of a strong cotton campaign; this needs to be organized expe-ditiously. A well-defined stratecr nnd an integrnted annroach arerequired to realize the considerable potential which exists for livestockdevelopment.
vi--- There appears to be too much concern for attinnn self-sufflciencvin food. The state farms for wqheat and rice - particularly the former -
are highl1y capit-a intensive and, mn-y of them have not iyndrlpr aqua9pntetechnical and economic evaluation, and hence are not likelyr to be veryefficient. Irvest+mernt in state fanrms needs +to 'h revripeT.TP thnroiP-h1hv.
4iX. The m.ost impFortaLnt determinant of the success of the agriculturnflprogram will be the availability of trained and experienced manpower.TLhere is Om11te; ducanLgr that te sitUatiOn iis not_ partic-lary favorab
at this time, may deteriorate further, in view of the possibility thatrmLany expatriate personnel W-i vh1 ±lUong eAVjieJU c mIniay LeaVe wivL n L rela+W vely
short time. It will be many years before adequate numbers of Tanzaniansbecome a-vailable; in tdhe meant+imUe, every-- effort shol'd be made to retain;as many experienced expatriates as possible and recruit additional personnel.without this resource, the w1hole task of pang d implementing projectswould slow down considerably and reduce the magnitude of investment.
x. The Tanzanian Plan is intended to be flexib:Le, and the invest-ment program is based on a two-year forward list of projects. The missionrecommends a thorough annual planning exercise to create a firm basis forinvestment, based on a priority list of projects. If it is felt thatresources - particularly high-level manpower - wTill not be available onthe scale projected, it may be desirable to shelve some projects whichare of lower priority, so as to ensure that priority programs will havethe required complement of resources.
AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN TANZANIA
I. INTRODUCTION
A. Agricultural Setting
1. Mainland Tanzania has a population of approximately 12.6 millionand a present: rate of growth of population of 2.7 percent. The per capitaGDP was about $67 in 1968. Tanzania is basically an agrarian nation withsome 90 percent of its population engaged in agriculture. In 1968 agricul-tural exportsi accounted for 81.6 percent of the total value of exports.
2. Tanzania can be described as a land surplus country with significantopportunities for bringing more land into production at relatively low cost.Irrigation is carried out in a few private estates and several governmentestates, and there are also scattered patches of smallholder irrigation.Since land is not an important constraint on the expansion of agriculturaloutput, the scope for smallholder irrigation is quite limited at present.
3. Peasant farming is the predominant type of farm organization wlththe hand hoe being the principal means of cultivation. Tractor schemesexperienced uajor difficulties in the 1960's and there is now a pronouncedshift to animal powered mechanization: The number of ox plow sales increasedfrom around 8,000 in 1967 to 9,000 in 1968, and to an estimated 12,000 duringthe first nine months of 1969.
4. A suihstantial amount of land is devoted to livestock production.The number of cattle is thought to have increased from 6.3 million in 1951to 7.7 million in 1959. 10.3 million in 1966 and 11 million in 1969. Most
of the cattle are shorthorn Zebus and are kept extensively on natural grass-land in areas of low rainfall.
5 Tanzania is baricallv self-suffirient in food with the exceptionof imports of wheat and dairy products - mainly from Kenya - and modestamounts of a wide ranae of other oroducta. Although there is some concernover food imports, the data show that the value of food imports as a percentof total inmnorts has remained at about 9 percent over the past five years.
6. ~T.h.v in sulhbtantial underemployment in agrirultural areas and withthe population increasing rapidly, the major problems that Tanzania faces inthe 1970'S i onne of increasing emplovment opportunities at a rate which iscommensurate with the growth of population. Since urban unemployment is notexpected to increase rapidly during the Second and Third Plans; agriculture
will have to serve as the self-employment sector for a considerable periodof time.
B. Performance of Agriculture During the First Plan
*7 T.he performance of the agricultural sector dur-ig the 1960-68period has been impressive but uneven, in terms both of commodities andgeograpLi'Lca location. L. le production of all ajor export cropz, with the
exception of sisal, increased at annual rates of growth ranging from 5.9 to
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18.2 percent over the 1960/62-68 period. The growth rate of production ofthe malor aericultural exports from 1960/62 to 1968 was as followa: tobacco18.2 percent, pyrethrum 15.6 percent, cashewnuts 12.6 percent, coffee 10.5percent; tea 9.6 nercent, and cotton 5.9 percent. Althouah Sial Droductionin 1968 was only 6 percent less than 1960/62, the value of sisal exports in1968 was only slightlv more than one-half of the 1960/62 average. Foodproduction has probably expanded slightly above the population growth rate.
8. Cotton replaced sisal as the leading export crop starting in 1966.However, cotton prodtction iR Rubiect to weather-indurpd fluctuatinns.Cotton output increased from 293,246 bales in 1964 to a record crop of434,386 bales in 1966- hut then declined to 2P4-0fl in 1968 and avAin roseto approximately 385,000 bales in 1969. 1/ The value and marketed quantityof the principal cash ronna over the 1Q60l-62 ner4ni i8 chr-.m in Tahle 1 -Statistical Appendix.
9. The tranformation and the improvement approaches were bothe -hasiZed in the First Plan. The transformation aproach was carried outby the Ministry of Lands, Settlement and Water Development through villagesettlemennt schenme and hlnok fArming_ but wAs halted in 1966 after lt wasfound that the settlements were overcapitalized, inefficient, benefittingonly a small percentage of the rural population and aking heav, demand on.scarce manpower.
10. The Improvement approach was carried out by the Ministry of Agri-culture and focused on assisting small farw-.ers with extension, marketingand production requisites. The improvement approach was very successfulin promoting t.he .xans.i.. . o- f sAe cm-m4ot4es. For example, the value of
coffee exports increased 20 percent from 1964-68, while tobacco exportsregistered a forty-fold increase (from Sh 1 m.lllion to Sh 40 millior) ir.the same period. Hybrid maize expanded rapidly in the Njombe District withacreage 4ncreasi ng from 975 ir. l9A8 to 5,511 4n 1969.
11. Skid141e manpower represenrA.ted major bottle.neck in the i 4 ln.tation of agricultural programs in the First Plan. The number of universitygraduates andu o'fgicers trained at Ith'e dipl-oaat.e level was extremely s".l~L4U~L~~~L1IL UL.LL~O LL4.i~LL ~ S.A4 U.LVtJ.SJWL ±VJ ~ JL.L~W=Ly ~ULIA.L.Lin relation to manpower requirements in the First Plan.
12. Agricultural development during the First Plan was very uneven interms of geographical irupact. lIe Taan6ga ReggiUon, Lor exadLu.e, rAyrtell
a major setback following the sharp drop in sisal prices. In addition,Morogoro, Singida and Kigoma Regions and some districts 2/ in otherwiseprosperous regions experienced only token social and economic development,while the Arusha/Moshi, Tabora, and Iringa/bDeya Regions grew very rapidly.
1/ Preliminary estimate.
2/ Sumbawanga District in Mbeya Region is an example.
13. Employment in estate agriculture declined from about 164,000 in1964 to a little over 109.000 in 1968. with almost all of the decline occur-ring in the sisal industry. Urban wage rates increased very rapidly -about 80 percent from 1964 to 1966 - while total wage employment in thecountry remained virtually stagnant during the First Plan. Therefore, theadditions to the total labor force had to be absorbed in a2riculture.
14. In summarv- the imnressive nprfonrmanrP nf sevural key expnortcrops since 1964 took place within an environment of uneven development interms nf commodities and aeoranphlal cnuYragoe Also the provinson ofsocial services was extremely urban-biased during the First Plan. Forthese reasons, a comparisonof trh -rnte of governmental expernditures onagriculture with the planned expenditures during the First Plan or a com--parison of trends in key agricultural co4odities overlooks 1mportantproblems such as income distribution, employment and social services. ThIeAru-sha Declaration. of 1967 ar.d subsequent policy deci.L ions -w-1h ichi gave grea.t erpriority to rural development can only be understood within the broad contextof uneven rural development and the urbar bias in Le provLsiLon of socLaLservices, wage adjustments, etc. During the Second Plan, the Governmentclearly ai.,s at enzsur'ing tbat th rua ------ ---- - fair shar of thCA L J.LL1 L~LU± Lil1L L1ItI LULtI.L 0-ectorU gets a LtI.LL U11ILr- UL LLIC
total investment. One of the important ways in which this is to be doneis to encourage the rural population to live in 'Ujamaa villages, as anefficient means of providing social and technical services while encourag-ing cooperative effort arnd self-help.
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II. AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS ANDCOMMODITY PROSPECTS IN TIE SECOND PLAN
A. Main Agricultural Programs
15. From a commodity standpoint the major shift in agriculturalstrategy from the First to the Second Plan was to elevate the prioritygiven to the production of food and improvement of nutrition. The emphasisin the Arusha declaration on "self-sufficiency" and "self-reliance" guidedplanners in placing considerable emphasis on self-sufficiency in food pro-duction. The Second Plan aims at achieving self-sufficiency in soft wheatproduction by 1974, moving from an importer to a modest exporter of riceby 1974. moving to self-sufficiency in sugar production by 1974, and layingthe foundation for a rapid increase in dairy cattle in order that dairyimports - the largest food item in the countrv's import bill - could bereduced in the Second and Third Plans. In addition, improved nutritionia given high priority and programs are desiegned to expand the outnut offisheries and encourage home production of fruits, vegetables and poultry.
16. The rapid expansion of selected export crops continues to be animportant strategv in the Second Plan as it Was in the First Plan. Highpriority is given to the following export crops: cotton, flue-curedtobacco. tea. oilseeds and cashew: fire-cured tobacco. sisal. nvrethrumand coffee are assigned limited priority in the Second Plan.
17. In preparing the Second Plan the planners devoted major attentionto a cron Driority exercise which incorporated detailed technical datasupplied by each district's agricultural staff and the world market outlookfor expnort rronpe A total of 16 eriteria was used to assiQn erop priorftieato each District and Region. The crop priorities which emerged from districtanti regional sgrircult-iiral Rtaff were primarily baspd on technlenal i- tWprim_and the economic payoffs to farmers does not always appear to have receivedfull r.eienaiiratilnn Mnrnver- there drosa not Annnar to he a clenar zinAor-
standing of the national crop priorities at the local levels, so that someeffort is being devoted to the promotion of cros wh4ich are not most suit-able.
18. Production prospects during the second plan are discussed underfour major groups of commodities:
The various commodities are grouped into these four classifications in orderto relate government policies, projects and programs to each major group ofcommodities. However, there is some overlapping. For example, dairy pro-ducts are both import substitution commodities and nutritionally superiorfoods.
19. The strategy for export crops during the Second Plan is to givepriority to the expansion of cotton, tea, flue-cured tobacco, oilseeds andcashew. Fairly detailed production campaigns have been developed for teaand flue-cured tobacco. However, planning for cotton, the principal ex-port crop, :Ls inadequate, and further attention needs to be devoted to themanpower and recurrent budget requirements for mount:Lng a cotton campaign inorder to increase production from 400,000 to 700,000 bales. A recommendedcotton campaign is spelled out below (para 25). Cashew expansion is anti-cipated to take place with little assistance from the Government. Theprogram of expansion of oilseeds lacks detailed planning. The oilseedstate farms which are expected to account for a largie share of the in-creased output need to be thoroughlv reviewed from a technical and econo-mic standpoint. Modest expansion is anticipated in pyrethrum, sisal, fire-cured tobacco and coffee.
20. The Second Plan devoteR high priority to the following imnortsubstitiution commodities: sugar, soft wheat, rice, and dairy products.Before dierti1RRng the eeononmde of self-siuff1c4e^ncv it may he helpful toreview the main features in import substitution during the First Plan.First;te to t-al valueof merehandise 4Mn^tO do1 1Mbe from 1962-196Q whilethe value of food imports declined from 1962-64, increased in 1965 andthen remained at about Sh 160 million during the last three yearsa 8 hoin Table 1; second, the value of food imports as a percent of total importsdeclined from 1962-64 and then has remained at about 10 percent of thevalue of all imports over the past five years (Table 1); third, the valueof all food imports fro.,. K~enyz r, Ugnd has 1rmaieda abou Sh- ..0 mil-~-.JJLL IpSL L 5..J&~ *LL~U 2LA.A LU6L&UCE L9421 LCAIUX±IACU 42L CL UUIU LJLL vu UIJ L-
lion a year over the 1962-68 period; fourth, sugar is the only importsubstitutio. crop which has expan:ded r. a e t .41 -A-68 period. 1/
However, import substitution in sugar has been achieved by paying producersmore than. double the price of sugar C fJIF Dsnar es Salaa.. (4.00 shillings per ton.CIF Dar es Salaam as compared with the producer price of Sh 920 per ton);fifth V., th_e .o lsargest food im-ports = dairyf products an.d -heat - are ma'nly*.5.A.u aU I It L.WLF i.J'JL LU jL L. ~L ~UUL LiI WLLL -u iL ±Y
imported from the East African Community (Table 2 - Statistical Appendix).
21. While the drive for self-sufficiency in wheat and dairy products_ .1 …. 4k… £.. _.._ _ .L. I ._. ._ ___I 11_ 1_
may hLaVe 'Loni LU- mUCeit, the prLogra prlosUPU'tU LLr LtII OeokUzUU r.a. 'LAn tLUis
regard should be reconsidered on account of a) the virtual absence oflocal research onr wheat and dairy; b) critical lack of high level manpower;c) gloomy prospects for wheat state farms; d) alternative uses of resources- land, labor and high-level extension manpower - on other commodities suchas cotton, tea, flue-cured tobacco, which will yield substantially higherreturns to the national economy, endu e) possible effect of furtner importsubstitution on the East African Common Market.
1/ Although wheat production grew rapidlv from 1962-65. production hasremained at 30 thousand tons or less over the past five years (1965-69).
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Table 1: TOTAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS ANDIMPORTS OF FOOD, 1962-68
Value of Total Value of Total Food Imports asMerchandise Imports Food Imports a Percent of
(Shimillion) (Sh million) Total Imports
1962 1,030 145 14.1
1963 1,056 116 11.0
1964 1,194 110 9.2
1965 1,335 127 9.5
1966 1,613 159 9.9
1967 1,577 150 9.5
1968 1,778 138 7.8
Source: East African Trade Reports
22. The Second Plan devotes high priority to improving the diet ofthe preoplTe. Direct -overnment investment 4i AllnoatedA tn expanding fishoutput and increasing research and development on poultry, horticulturalprodu.ts etc. T.here are several mao4r con.strafints -4monr4 mprov4 n -nutri4 o4 an
lack of effective demand (purchasing power) as a result of low per capitai.ncomea, lack, of con .umer knolw.ledge abount- nutritior.n .-A meoAd of fooA
preparation and relatively high cost of some foods such as poultry whichLs partially a result of domestic fooA grain pol1ici4es wh-1ch44 mair,ta4n d-om=estic maize prices above import parity. For these reasons there is littlescope fLor improving the nutrition of the bulk of the peop'le 'ln the fore=seeable future through "relatively expensive" foods such as beef, pork,eggs aLIU UoWIIerc'LaL poULL'L try C lUlLnc Lor 'IULUVeU nLULLoLnUIA 'LT
in the rural areas is fish, milk powder and fruits and vegetables. Also,if agronomic research 's successful legumes such as soyabeans and new highprotein crops such as high lysine maize may become available. 1/ A dis-cussion of a research and uevelopment pYUgraui for improving nutrition andthe relationship between expanding rural purchasing power through exportcrops and purchasing an improved diet are spelled out in para 101.
1/ High lysine Maize is now being released to farmers in some countries,including Nigeria. Lysine is one of the six essential amino acidswhich are the main components of protein. Research has proven thatprotein needs can be substantially met through crops such as highlysine Maize.
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23. Staple food expansion mainly concerns maize, sorghum, bananas,sweet notatoes. cassava and pulses. The Second Plan implicitly assumesthat export commodity prices will decline by about 13 percent over thePlan nprind= Thi8 decline of 13 percent is incorporated into the balanceof payments calculations. 1/ However, commodity price forecasts for eachcommnditv arp nnt snelled out in the Plan.
24. Production prospects for all mnanr crnno are discussed helnw.The physical amd financial targets for all major commodities are shown inTable 3 - Statistical Appendix.
B. C^Tom^dit Prospects
Export Crops
25. *ottIon. Cotto.n producior.l - exclusively by annllhnlAavr - hasa long history in Tanzania. The major area of production, accounting forabout 05 percer.t of total output, is arour. T7- U4Victor4a, atretching4
south as far as Tabora. Other cotton growing areas are along the coast,near MLorougoro and. i a few fe lothter scattered areas. ve e /
period cotton production grew at an average annual rate of 12.6 percent.Output uecli..ncdU Ln 1.7l adLA L9U6 mair.ly on 0 outtLAJLA"L of& fLaLvorale etr.&
iau±t L. _ AJLt I . .NI^ LnJTi7NMTf AJT 1rnoo tAT TV
(Quantity - '000 bales of 400 lbs: Value - Sh million)
26. Cotton varieties have a staple length between 1 1/8" and 1 5/32".The average g:Lnning percentage is 34 percent. The average yield is between500 to 600 lbs of seed cotton per acre without the application of fertilizeror insecticides.
1/ The Second Five-Year Plan, Vol. I, page 214, para. 25.
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27. Four textile mills are now in production and will absorb about40.00 bales of cotton annually. The target for domestic milling is 75.000bales by 1975.
28. All the seed cotton is crushed in Tanzania except that used forseed. Most of the crushing is done by the 15 oil mills located in theLake Region. Most of the cotton seed oil is sold in Tanzania while thecotton seed cake is larRelv exported. mainly to Europe.
29. The Lint and Seed Marketing Board (LSMB) - a marketing mononolv -has performed very ably and has handled the distribution of seed, and theselling of cotton. In addition. it has financed cotton research, feederroads, etc. The cotton cooperatives have been subject to major review andreorganization over the Dast three vears. These measures shnuld 1pad tosome improvement in cooperative society and union performance over the SecondPlan nperiod. Increased attention should he frcused On reduti1 Dg8OCiety
marketing costs (possible savings of 1-3 cents per lb of seed cotton),reduiirng gcnning C08t8 (1-9 cents per lb savings) and in tranaferrIrng theburden of social and economic infrastructure investment (roads and researchPRnpeiallv) from the cotton nroducer to the epnprnl tasnaver (3/4L rnts perlb savings). A careful study should be made of the desirable level at whichthe financIal reRa-ves nf thp LAit- And Seed Marketing Boanrd ahoud1A Ie held.Because of the high cross-elasticities between cotton and a range of alter-n.ative crop activitles - rIce, aIize and oilseeds particularly - the impr-Ztance of maintaining a favorable producer price for cotton cannot be over-stre-sed If the Second Plan growth targets are to be fulfilled. A min4imurequirement is that the producer prices should be announced prior to theplantin4g season as as don.e prior to ofning o .fthe 1907f0 crop. T -i8recommended that this practice be continued each year.
30. The major increase in output over the past decade has been throughacreage expansion anA -improved varieties. TIn the absence of reliable stat's-tics cotton acreage is estimated to have reached 800,000 to 1,000,000 acresby info, ar inreseofabut10 percent fLrom the 11962 acreage. Altog
some acreage expansion has taken place in the traditional cotton areas ofrWan.za, KWLmba adU Ukerewe districts and N.. Geita, where cotton acreageper family increased from 0.8 acres in 1945 to 2.9 acres in 1968, new areasLhave also Uee openedu L'or prouuctiLon. Llese 'Lnc.Lu.eUe W. Geita, South Shinyanga,East Maswa, Nzega and Musoma districts. Migration into these areas was facil-i tated by the Governmlrent mainly through provision for rural water supplies.Research on cotton at the Western Research Station, Ukiriguru and the CentralResearch Station, ilonga nas produced new varieties wnich have increasedyields by 15-20 percent in the past five to eight years and have graduallyincreased the ginning percentage from 32 to 34 percent. Cotton researchin Tanzania has also produced varieties which have increased the staplelength over the past ten years.
31. Only minor increases in cotton output have come from the applica-tion of fertilizer and insecticides. Presently only about 3-5 percent ofthe land area - 30,000-50,000 acres - is being fertilized and sprayed. TheNational Development Credit Agency's (NDCA) credit program has been mainlyresponsible for the expansion of fertilizer and insecticides.
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32. The Second Plan projects cotton output to increase from 400,000bales in 1969 to a mean average of 615,000 bales by 1975 or 700,000 bales inthat year uncder favorable weather conditions. Since the average productionfor the three! year period 1967-69 is 354,000 bales, the 400,000 base outputfor the first: year of the Second Plan seems high. It seems more realisticto use a 1969 base year output of 350,000 bales. The long run world priceof cotton is expected to fall by about 15 percent over the 1969-74 period.The Second Five Year implicitly assumes that the price-s of all agriculturalexport crops will decline about 13 percent over the 1969-74 period. 1/Producer prices can be maintained during the early years of the SecondPlan only if the export duty on cotton is eliminated or at least substan-tially reduced, and/or increases in efficiency are achieved in marketingand ginning. The revenue from the export duty on cotton is estimated to beSh 14 million in 1969/70. It may be necessary to increase the export dutyon coffee to offset the loss in revenue from the elimination of the exportduty on cottcon.
33. It is assumed in the Second Plan that most of the increase in
cotton output - from 400,000 to 700,000 bales - will come from an expan-sion in acreage while a smnaller hut significant increase 1will come fromimproved varieties and agronomic practices. 2/ Although there is stillscone for land expansion, tho land area wmilA have to be I-ncreased by 50percent or from roughly 1 to 1.5 million acres over the 1969-74 period inorder tn ment the 1974 target of 700,000 bales While the i s e for
land expansion, there are some problems which need to be overcome in orderto realise the target of 700,000 bales of cotton, by '. h8 a
(a) a systemOXCatic al u Lnt-egratd ctULoUU pLUUUctLXUU
campaign is not spelled out in the Second Plan.The! pLVJeLLt iLn VUolume IL o' thLe [ econdu Plan wh1ichIdeal with cotton emphasize capital spending and aremainly included uider the Lint and Seed MarketingBoard. Also, the Agriculture Division is allocatingon1y / percent ofA; ag.rL.cu'LULur. LnpuL. demo1ns _ra_ion
vote (Project 4403) to cotton during the Plan, whilecottor. accounts for 26r percent of the value of tbeL~JL LUL aL~JU,LoLIJ J JLLL I.LLI~ xer UL LLI
crop sector's GDP incremental output target for 1974;
(b) the world price of cotton is likely to decline byabout 15 percent over the 1969-74 period. Even if exportduties on cotton are eliminated, it is likely thatprouucer priLces may have to Ue reduceu iLn 1971 or .1.72.unless savings can be realized in marketing and ginning;
i/ This can be deduced from the discussion in Volume I of the Plan of theoverall national balance of payments situation (para. 25, p. 214).
2/ An increase in output of 25 percent is assumed to be possible fromimproved varieties and better agronomic practices.
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(c) there are at least five alternative cash crops which
are competing with cotton for labor and land in the
cotton zone. The Ministry is placing considerableemphasis on the expansion of maize, rice and oilseeds
in the cotton zone. Also, the process of land settle-ment is virtually complete in some districts that have
been major contributors to past izicreases in cottonoutput e.g. Geita district. As a result. it cannot beassumed that 500,000 acres of additional land willeasilv be brought Into cotton production durinig theSecond Plan;
(d) since a recurrent budget and manpower plan have not
been developed for the expansion of cotton Production.it is possible that even the preseut extension staffwi4.11 bep ghifted from cotton to state farms. large-
scale irrigation schemes, etc. The current levelsof stnffing are inadeouate. The Plan's crop growth
targets in the four main cotton1 regions imply mulchhi h.r mMrvinal uroductivitv for cotton zone extension
in most other regicns. Also, the ratio of farmers perextension worker is considprnbly hi gher in 3 of the 4
regions (with the exceprion of Tabora) than non-cottonre-ions SUrh -a A"r,iqih_ ITrn iTia nne Wpst L7ake Rpeinsin=
For example, an extension worker in the Shinyanga (cotton)Region 8erve alv6e* I OAf npenole au cnm.anred with lePs
thant 500 per extension worker in a non-cotton growingReg0in suchL as Arusha;
(e) the quality of extensicn i4n terms of achiev4ng aneffective impact on farmers' productivity and netLneorues, -ls somewhat suspects Experienced st-aff have
been transferred to other regions or have left thegervic, w,'e fiel fFw14 era.; spr-ying demor.s-
trations have not been carried out by extension officersin any of the four maWU cotton regions over the 1966-69
period. The liaison between extension and researchworkers appears to be inauequete.
34. Tne fo llowing lines oL actlon are required to improve planning andto facilitate t'-e implementation of a cottoi- campaign for the Second Plan:
(a) a drastic reduction or eveni the elimination of the
export duty on cotton;
(b) appointment of an itu-rregional Corton CampaignCommittee i.C'.C ) tz Jraw up a cotton campaign forthe four major cottoi; regions: hFwanza, Shinyanga,Tabora ind Mara. Tlhe committee shsould be chaired byan experienced senior agricultural officer; this
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would be a new position with a base at Mwanza.The Interregional Committee should include thefour Regional Directors of Agriculture (RDA), fourRegional Cooperative Officers, and one representativeeach from the Ministry of Economic Planning and theMinistry of Agriculture Planning Unit (Dar es Salaam),NDCA, LSMB, TAMTU, NCU, and the Western ResearchCenter, Ukiriguru. Members who are specialists infeeder roads, rural water supply, etc. may be co-opted;
(c) the Interregional Cotton Committee should developaeneral Ruidelines for the expansion of cottonproduction along the lines of a "package approach"with special attention to manpower and recurrentbudget requirements, antimai power mechanization,storage, fertilizer and insecticide distribution etc.The committee should eXamine, for example, Project440J1 "AgrieulturAl Innut Demonstrations" (AericulturalDivision) and determine whether the allocation for cotton- 4 npreent of the total exopndlture on innut demonstrationsover the 1969-74 period - is adequate;
(d) specific steps should be taken to accelerate TAMTU'seffo!rts to provide a full range of no enuipment fOr
extension demonstrations;
(e) immediate steps should be taken to translate into Swahilithe cotton handbook which has been recently completedat the Ukiriguru Research Station, for distribution toall exte.i fravets. At presaert there ia no ti4me,t-able
for making this publication available in Swahili. Adigest, of research, result. s zh.ould a-so be mad,e ava41blabeto extension agents at periodic intervals throughout theyear;.7
(C'f arm econoaic researcl, hould move beyond..A the ar.aysi%& A. CLL ttStU.t C~ .tll C UJ A .C US~ukf -*.- - _.ajaa
of single crop experimental plots and farm trials and.LaurcLhli a *u.L Ll farm. martagemente survey .Ln the four maJorregions. The reasons for the relatively limltedadoption of n.eiw technLiques (3 pe.cert ofL acreage b.-Ce5ingfertilized) should be the focus of the farm economicsurvey. Jfel tsurvey reu:Ls sIIlUU'LU guLUe cLUrop iLntUUouctUi
and pricing policies and research priorities as well asdeveloping simple guidelines for extension workers on theeconomics of producing cotton and other crops;
(g) the Interregional Cotton Committee should explorethe feasibility of introducing a subsidy (in theregion of 50 percent) on insecticides for a definitetime period - say for five years. Tne suDsidy nas beeneffective in Uganda where over 250,000 acres of cottonare now being sprayed;
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(h) the I.C.C.'s interpretation of Ukiriguru's fieldfertilizer trials in the four regions should begreatly accelerated so that district--level fertilizerrecommendations can be released by 1971. Additionalstaff should be sought to complete this work as rapidlyas possible;
(i) the plan of the Tanzania Fertilizer Company to set updepots in the Mwanza area and a fertilizer marketingsystem in 1970 should be endorsed and included in thecotton campaign. When specific fertilizer recommendationscan be made at the district level - say by 1971 or 1972 -then the Interregional Cotton Committee should considerthe merit of introducing a 50 percent fertilizer subsidyfor a definite time period.
35. In conclusion, a doubling of cotton production from the 1967-69average of 356,000 bales to 700.000 bales by 1974 is likely to be achievedonly if deliberate steps are soon taken to develop a consistent set ofgovernment policies and programs for assistinR small farmers in substan-tially increasing acreage and speeding up the adoption of new techniques.At present the Second Plan document focuses on capital as the limitingfactor in the expansion of agricultural output in the Second Plan and, asa result. navs only Derinheral attention to the mannower and recurrentbudget requirements for cotton, one of the two principal export crops.
36. Pyrethrum. Between 1960-62 and 1967 pyrethrum production grew atsm average annuln ratp of 2 nperrpnt, crmnarerd with the anticinatepd nnnualrate of 14 percent in the First Plan. The 1970 target was surpassed in1967. The share of the southern area, where sn1ma1llholders acnount fnrabout 93 percent of total output, has risen from 40 to over 80 percentof the na-tional total,
Table 3: PYRETHR.>LJ PRODUCTION, 1962-68(Quantity - tons: Value - Sh Million)
Source: Five Year Plan, Ministry of Agriculture; East African ForeignTrade 1968.
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37. Average yields are low, and hence there is good scope for output-increasing innovations in smallholder production. The southern region wheresmallholders are predominant averaged only 132 lb/acre annually during thesix year period as compared to the northern area where average yields duringthe same period amounted to 266 lb/acre. Overall pyrethrin content of driedflowers in Tanzania averaged 1.27 percent during the same period, i.e., 10percent less than in Kenya, mainly because of inadequate drying procedures.
38. Thie Second Plan envisages an annual production increase of about4 percent which takes into account the probable competition from new typesof synthetic substitutes. At the present time it is difficult to make pro-jections about pyrethrum production, since the results of the 1968 reduc^-tion of almost 20 percent have not yet been evaluated. Although the pricereduction has made pyrethrum more competitive with synthetics, other power-ful synthetics which have not so far been commercially used may pose in-creased threats to the industry.
39. Since smallholder yields are less than 1/2 of estate yields thereis scope for productivity improvement programs. Improved varieties withhigher pyrethrin content and higher yields would enable smallholders tocompete with synthetics at lower prices. Extension efforts should be con-tinued so that possible reductions in estate production would be offsetand the expected growth rate would be realized. The advantage of the shiftfrom estates to family labor is that Tan7an1a rqn be a lnw Cost nrodueer ifthe new techrnology is adopted by small farmers.
40. There is considerable scope for increasing the cooperative market-in effiripnruv in xmAllhn1ldr^rrAa- For eYAmple, fircrt payments hb rconn-erative societies to producers are only 75 cents per lb., whereas it appearsfeasible to rn4aa it to Sh 1.20 n 1 with an improvement in marketing ef-
ficiency.
41. There are good prospects for increasing the world demand forDvrethrum thrnough mArkpt rpeRenorh Tn high inrn i rtrint*rian thavr im in-
creasing realization of the risks to ecology from persistent chemicals suchas DDT - As a non-nprsirtpnt ehemifsal therefnor, pyrethrum. commnands an
obvious advantage. There is a need for the Pyrethrum Board to play a moreativ… role (ir. wollaborai Mitchell Cotts, the Marketing Agent) inaggressive market expansion both within Tanzania and in other countries.Resenrrh nhniile be rhmani tionne to develop new uses for pyrethr n, e.g.pharmacological uses. Also there is a need to explore how low cost insec-tieides ran be dauvlonnA fnr hoiasho1A isea 4n low 4 nir.c ,-r% ntrmes. How-
ever, increased sales of pyrethrum are dependent to a large-extent on alower selling price hIch w11 enable it to compete effectively -4Ith
synthetics.
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42. Tea. The production in Tanzania has shown a remarkable growthduring the past 8 years, mainly due to large scale plantings by estatesduring the 1950's, when over 1,000 acres were planted annually. By 1967estate production accounted for about 97 percent of total output.
43. Production increases over the past 8 years were largely the resultof acreage expansion, since average yields or about 1,200 lbs of made teaper acre remained virtually unchanged during this period. Expansion of teaacreage was as follows;
44. Smallholders accounted for about 2,200 acres immatures and 2,435acres semi-matures. The Plan's target growth rate is 9 percent a year. Thetotal production is expected to be about 29 million lbs by 1974. The 29million lbs output tarRet can be realized from acreage already plantedbecause by 1974 about 23,000 acres will be fully mature and 3,500 acres semi-mature. The Plan proposes planting 24,000 acres of tea by 1974. Smallholderexpansion under a 6 year program, for which IDA finance is being sought,could amount to about 12.000 acres. Estate plantin2s are also like]v to
- 15 -
continue aitnougn on a mooest scale Or abDout J0U acres annually. .he plat-
ing programs will be under supervision by the Tanzania Tea Authority, anautonomous Government agency, which is performing well. To make the plantlngprogram more efficient, it is most important that attention is paid tovegetative propagation, which would save time and increase returns tofarmers. Attention should also be directed to improving the fertilizerdistribution system, nursery and establishment techniques such as the useof polyethelene sleeves (pending the adoption of vegetative propogation),the pegging or binding system and the use of compound fertilizers.
45. In the absence of an agreement to limit the output of tea, worldtea prices are expected to decline by about 2 percent a year in the 1970/75period. An interim agreement to which all major tea producers are signa-tories has recently been reached, and has fixed export quotas for 1970,pending further work on a longer-term agreement. Tanzania has not, however,signed the agreement, but may find it difficult to maintain this position,particularly if this would involve stopping exports to those countries,which recognise the agreement. The interim agreement has clearly recognisedthat new comers to tea production particularly the African countries shouldget some preference with regard to quotas vis-a-vis established producerslike India and Ceylon.
46. Sisal. Tanzania is one of the world's largest producers of sisalcompeting for first place with Brazil. Production during the 1962 to 1967period remained fairly stable, although a substantial price reductions tookplace in 1964 and a relatively lesser one in 1965.
Source: The Second Five-Year Plan, the Annual Economic Survey, 1968.
47. About 98 percent of total output is produced by estates and theremainder is hedge sisal from smallholdings. Total acreage under sisalreached a peak of about 750,000 acres in 1964 but has declined since. Asa consequence of price declines and wage increases, many estates had toclose down or improve productivity. The labor force employed in sisal hasfallen by over 70,000 workers since 1962.
48. In view of the deterioration in hard fiber prices, 31 producingcountries joined an FAO Study Group on Hard Fibers and agreed to a) establishexport quotas, b) establish indicative export price for the short run, andc) create a consultative sub-committee to extend the informal quota and
- 16 -
price agreement. Under this agreement, Tanzania obtained an export quota of205,700 tons, which is about 11 percent below the 1965 export record of229.9 tons. It was also agreed that Tanzania would accept a further 10 per-cent quota reduction in 1969 and that the selling price in 1969 would beSh 1,680/long ton c.i.f. Europe for E.A. Reject.
49. Until recently, Government policy was concerned largely withpromoting smallholder production in an industry controlled by large foreign-owned estates. In 1967, the Government acquired ownership or a majorityholding in some 60 percent of the industry's capacity and established theTanganyika Sisal Corporation (TSC) to manage the estates. TSC and its sub-sidiaries control a production potential of 95,000 tons. Internal salesquotas have been allotted to both TSC and private estates in order to holdproduction within Tanzania's quota. Currently, the Government is concentrat-ing production on the most viable estates.
50. The Second Plan target for 1974 is a production of 160,000 tonsplus/minus 10,000 tons. In addition, 30,000 tons may be required by a sisalpulp project presently under discussion (para. 243). Since the two mostefficient private estates have a combined production potential of about52,000 tons and are likely to compete successfully under prevailing priceconditions, the final level of total production will be determined by TSC.Production could be maintained at 190,000 tons throughout the Plan.
51. Tanzania should monitor acreage in production in order that newplanting can be encouraged if sisal is replaced by another crop. Sincesisal takes 18-24 months to come into production, the Ministry should re-view the acreage every year in order that new plantings can be maintainedso that Tanzania meets its quota.
52. Since TSC has taken over some of the marginal sisal estates, thepossibilities of diversification are being reviewed. There are severalaspects concerning diversification which need investigation. These are to:
a) develop crops which would offset losses in export earnings;b) nrovide alternative emplovment opportunities for the labor
force previously engaged in sisal production; andc) make une of the infrastructure - houslne- sheds; roAdq.
Since sisanl nrnodctinn in rcenterpd in are_n of lnw ralnfAll and relat-ivaly
poor soils, and idle land is available in other areas, there are few knownaiternative crops that CoUld nrof4etAby1v hga arvm tm the. 1 2sal lnnA. Tanzan4a
may wish to examine Kenya's crop experiments in its coastal region todetemir.ie n if some of the crops - ka1pok, cashew, cotton, AA na,.nut* - on
be profitably grown in the Tanga area.
53. Studies are needed to appraise the potential for dairy farms, pigand poultry raising on sisal estates close to malJor consumption centers.
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Some estates close to Dar es Salaam may also be converted into badly neededholding grounds for cattle purchased by Tanganyika Packers. However, this islikely to apply to very few estates only and efforts to diversify all plan-tations going out of production would clearly be uneconomic.
54. Coffee. Coffee was Tanzania's second largest export earner duringthe 1966-68 period. About 80 percent of total production is arabica and 20percent robusta. Smallholders produce about 75 percent and estates 25 per-cent of the total output.
55. Acreage expansion was mainly responsible for the growth in coffeeoutput until about 1960. In the last 6-7 years, however, increases inproduction have been mainly the result of intensification by estates andsmallholders through spraying and fertilizer application. However, theproductivity of the smallholder sector is low at about 5 cwt per acre, ascompared to average estate yields of 15 cwt. Acreage expansion, however,has continued in the West Lake and Mbeya Regions. The rate of productiongrowth was about 12.1 percent in the First Plan. The future rate of growthenvisaged in the Plan is considerably less, about 6 percent a year and willmainly be from yield increases.
Source: Th,e Second Five-Year Plan; The Annual Economic Survey, 1968.
56. Tanzania's quota under the International Coffee Agreement for thefour years 1969/70 - 1972/73, is 700,000 bags (41,000 tons). Domesticconsumption is only about 5,000 bags (300 tons). Since production substan-tially exceeds its quota, increasing quantities are being exported to non-quota markets.
57. The Second Plan assumes an annual growth rate of 6 percent duringthe next five years. Total production in 1974 would thus reach 67,000 tonsof which 65,500 tons would be for export. Since acreage expansion duringthe past years has been virtually unchecked, part of this production wouldbe realized from trees already planted, but not yet bearing or fully mature.The remainder would come from yield increases on already bearing acreage.The only check on this trend would be the occurrence of Coffee Berry Disease(CBD) presently severely curtailing coffee production in Kenya. This ftmgusdisease has been identified in the Arusha-Kilimanjaro area but has not sofar influenced local production significantly.
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58. As a result of the frost in Brazil in 1969, there has been adramatic change in the world supply-demand relation for coffee. Thisrequires a readjustment of output and export targets in the Plan, and amodification of policies previously aimed at curtailing acreage or diversi-fying output. The mission has taken the new situation into account inarriving at its projections of output and exports. Since the world coffeemarket is now roughly in balance after many years of chronic over-supply,the effect of the frost in Brazil would be to reduce output and hence main-tain an upward trend in coffee prices for the next few years. Although thenew situation reduces the urgency of policies aimed at curtailing output anddiversifying production in the coffee-growing areas, Tanzania and other pro-ducers should now consider ways by which some badly-needed stability couldbe introduced into the long-term market for coffee.
59. Notwithstanding the anticipated firming up of coffee prices, theGovernment should continue efforts which will imnrove Tanzania's 1ona-rtncompetitive position. One approach would be to license coffee acreage andto inirnhihit new planting. Another miQht hp to rtavtal produ4rtnn in margin-al areas. However, a combination of pricing policies, research on diseaseCnntrol- quatiaty lmprovement and nreliminarv nlgnning of a diversifiertinnprogram, in addition to restrictions on marginal acreage would seem to bethe most effective 8et of polic4 ie tn npr-iue.
60. A smallholder d ra4f1rnt4nn proposal is hbena preparvA for c^ffeeareas in Tanzania, although its implementation may not now be very urgent.The p-roposeal ontii4r4a thnat- , nn ha npart4ally f4v%nne,d
from funds which will become available through the ICO Coffee Diversifi-cation Fund. Since coffee areas are high potertial areas and have a tra-dition of cash crop farming, they offer the possibility of a rapid shiftinto alternative co odities . Dairy production in the Kil4man4aro areaoffers an excellent alternative to coffee. Credit from the DiversificationFund should be made _-a4lable to both small scale coffee prodA-era .nA
estates in the marginal areas in order to assist in the transition fromcoffee to slternative activities such as Aairyin .an hori-4culture.
61 At present, on.-.l percent of smallbolder ar,d 75 percen.t o0±L. A l #_ %_ lJ.L DU' I e I±.J ',±l ~%A u.*. I .
estate production are within the first six quality classes. By continuingquality improvement prograU W it should be feasible to irncrease qualitystandards to levels comparable with Kenya, i.e. about 80-90 percent of coffeein the upper six classes.
62. Tne management of pulperies is poor. Tne TCB is recruiting expe-rienced processing specialists. No further investment in pulperies isrecommended until bottlenecks in the present pulperies are sorted out.
63. Cashewnuts. Tanzania is the world's second largest producer ofcashewnuts accounting for about 30 percent of total world crop. Cashewnutsare a smallholder crop with the major production centers in Mtwara and CoastalRegions. Production increased at about 11.7 percent annually during the1960/62 - 1968 period.
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Table 8: CASHEWNUT EXPORTS, 1962-68(Quantity - '000 tons: Value - Sh million)
Source: The Second Five-Year Plan; The Annual Economic Survey, 1968.
64. There is little factual data available on cashew yields. Sample-surveys indicate that yields are between 450 lbs and 500 lbs an acre. Ifproduction was about 80,000 tons, this implies that about 425,000 acres wereunder cashewnuts in 1968.
65. The Plan's target growth of 10 percent a year would result ina total production of about 136,000 tons by 1974. This prolection is basedon estimates of planting already carried out and on the rate of increasewhich has been taking place since 1963. Past increases in production haveoccurred without any special Government programs and none are planned forthe Second Plan neriod. There is currently the view in Government thatlittle extension effort is justified for cashew in light of its rapid growthduring the Pirst Plan. This view requires revision. If farmers can beaided with advice on spacing, weeding and thinning, cashew output could wellexpand by 15-.20 percent in the Third Plan rather then at a rate of 10-11percent. It should be kept in mind that cashew is one of the few exportcrops that has good nrinee prosnects - in fact the world Drice of cashewnutsmay increase in the early 1970's. It is, therefore, recommended that plannersreopen the csge for a folsible inerease in extension assistance for cashew-nuts. A review is also needed of the existing and proposed cashew process-ing plants. If it becomes obvious that mechanised processing is unprofitable,the program for training in hand shelling should be considerably enlarged andexpedited.
66. NPW plantning during the Plan nperind wlll not contribute signifi-cantly to production until after 1974. Indications are that large-scaleplantings have taken place during the past years and that envisaged Droduc-tion increases would be realized. Extension efforts should concentrate onim-roving weeding practices Sand thinnina of existing plantations. Yield
increases could also be obtained by controlling insects responsible for somekernel damage. However, the profitability of such an operation has not vetbeen established and the physical problem of spraying large trees is consi-Lerale. EAlxpersive motor blowers would be required too do a efficient job
and it is doubtful if a smallholder could operate and maintain such compli-catedu adu delicate machinery. LLe plar.r.ed caLhewnut researcbht sation atMtwara will probably investigate this problem and eventually suggest economicsolutions.
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67. Flue-cured Tobacco. Flue cured tobacco production, which islargely a smallholder crop has grown rapidly in recent years. Presentproduction, 75 percent of which is by smallholders, is well organized, withfarmers using fertilizer and modern cultivation practices. Development ofthis crop has been largely assisted by improved world market prices mainlyas a consequence of reduced exports from Rhodesia.
Table 9: FLUE-CURED TOBACCO PRODUCTION(Quantity - lbs million: Value - Sh million)
Source: The Second Five-Year Plan; The Annual Economic Survey, 1968.
68. The Plan objective is to achieve a growth rate of 25 percentannually reaching 35 million lbs by 1974. A development program has beensubmitted to IDA for finance; the appraisal mission's tentative conclusionsare that the 30,000 acre project would be likely to yield an additional 10million lbs by 1974. Since 1969 production has been estimated at between 17 -
20 million lbs, the anticipated production target of 35 million lbs seemslikely to materialize.
69. The maior problems affecting flue-cured tobacco expansion are thelack of suitable land and a lack of wood fuel for drying in the IringaRegion. Other problems are poor drying, grading, and storage facilitiesand the lack of auction facilities. Expansion of flue cured tobacco isrecommended for the Tabora and Mbeya regions.
70. Fire-ciired Tobace. Fire-.^red tnharen in larcelv a smnllholdercrop, with modest demands on husbandry and drying skills. The output is asfollnws:
Table 10: VTRF-lA.RE TOBAnCC PPDUCrTION
(Quantity - lbs million: Value - Sh million)
1962 1963 1964 1965 1967 1968
Production 1.3 1.9 .7 2.7 3.4 7.0
Value n.a. n.a. .6 .7 .7 .8
Source: Tne Second Five-Year Plan.
71. The world outlook for fire-cured tobacco has improved within thepast one or two years. Fire-cured tobacco output 's falling ,u thle U'LtedUStates on account of the high labor requirements. The Plan's assumed growthrate of 6 percent per annum can easily be met. It is reco--ended that thefire-cured tobacco target be increased.
72. Oilseeds. Oilseeds presently grown are groundnuts, sesame,sunflower and castor beans. Soybeans cultivation is presently only on anexperimental scale. Production of oilseeds developed as follows:
Table 11: OILSEEDS PRODUCTION (FOR EXPORT), 1962-68
(Quantity - 'ooo tons, Value - Sh million)
Groundnuts Sesame Sunflower CastorVolume Value Volume Value Volume Value Volume Value
1962O 68 7. 185Q 1n0. 11 . 7 n 13.5 12.0
1963 12.2 15.2 9.3 12.6 6.8 4.1 26.9 20.3JL 7U4 - .1±. J L * . I *J . -I JW.J 9-m U. . * -
73. Output has shown a marked downward trend, which can be explainedby L±uctuat'ing a7nd gerLera@JLy UdcJ.L1.LL1n prL'Lcs aLIU more LL .eaVC cash
crops becoming available to farmers. Average yields are low at about 500lb per acre, mailnly due to poor cuLt'vatiLon practiLces. o-metLc markletsabsorb only negligible quantities of total production because of competitionwith cheap cotton seed oil which is available in iarge quantities.
74. T-he Plan envisages a growth of oilseeds production of about 7 per-cent annually. In the light of production performance during the pastyears it is unlikely that the declining trend can be reversed. Decliningworld market prices and expansion of alternative crops such as tobacco,cotton and cashewnuts in major oilseed producing areas will not be condu-cive to production expansion. The Plan provides for the establishment ofone oilseeds state farm, production of which will not balance decliningsmallholder output. No Government programs aimed at improving smallholderproductivity are contemplated. Thus, total oilseed production will at bestremain at 1968 levels or, more probably, will continue to decline.
75. Coconuts. Coconut palms are grown along the coast, from Mtwarato Tanga Region. There are no statistics on production, but Government
- 22 -
officials estimate that production has remained fairly stable during thepast 10 years, with a shift from dried copra production to sales of freshnuts. Total acreage is estimated at about 110,000 acres or about 6 mil-lion palms. With an average yield of about 375 lb/acre production on acopra basis, total production should be around 18,000 tons. (Copra pro-duction alone reached about 12,800 tons in 1968/69.)
76. The Plan aims at a copra production of 14;200 tons by 1974; An
increase of only 1,400 tons. Planned investment for this sector, however,in restricted to the establishment of 3 entates; which would not startbearing before the end of the Plan period. Little thought has been givento ipronduitt1vit-v Improvements hby ipinnlving the nionndA estate or smail-
holders with new hybrid varieties, which show earlier maturity. Moreresearch ould be needed and cottacts with West African coconut palm re-search institutes would be most useful.
Import Substitution Crops
77. Wheat. Soft wheat production expanded from 1962-1965 and thenle,velled off at about 30 thousar.d tons from 1095-1968. Whea,.t 4-.-,orts overthe 1962-1968 period have accounted for about one-half of annual consumption.
Table 12: PRODUCTION AND IMPORTS OF WHEAT, 1962-68
1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1/
Sf T".eatL....~. Pro.... 17.3 18.50 20.W7 30.1 2) 0 27 .4) '7 A
Source: The Second Five-Year Plan; Annual Trade Reports.
78. Over 90 percent of Tanzania's wheat which is entirely of "soft"varieties is produced in the Kiliminjaro and Arusha regions by large com-mercial farmers. An increasing number of African farmers are producingwheat in this area. The average wheat yield for the Northern area ofTanzania was 6 bags (of 200 pounds per bag) per acre over the 1962-1967period. Wheat yields in the Southern Highlands are between 4-5 bags peracre. In 1969 in the Arusha, Kiliminjaro and Mbulu area farmers receivedfrom Sh 50-52 per 200 pound bag of Grade I wheat, while farmers in theSouthern Highlands received from Sh 40-44 per bag. A transport subsidy hasbeen used since 1967 to encourage wheat production in outlying areas. Cur-rently the subsidy is Sh 6.50 per bag in the Sumbawanga area, Sh 1.50 perbag in the Mbulu area and Sh 1.00 per bag in the West Kiliminjaro area.
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79. Tanzania wishes to expand wheat production rapidly, in order toachieve self-sufficiency in soft wneat. Ten state farms are being usea asthe central means of expanding wheat production. The NDC state farm asBasotu was taken over by NrACO in Juiy 1969. Other wheat state rarms arebeing established by the Production Division in numerous areas. In addition,the Government is encouraging small farmers to produce wheat, particularlyin the Southern Highlands; production through Ujamaa villages is beingencouraged in thre SumrDawanga area.
80. Wheat production on state farms is experiencing numerous diffi-culties; there is little reason to be optimistic about profitable wheatproduction on state farms when average yields are 5-6 bags per acre andvariable costs of mechanized wheat production are about Sh 200-250 peracre. Unless minimum tillage can reduce tillage costs substantially ornew varieties become available which can increase yields to 8-10 bags peracre, state farms are likely to be an inefficient method of producing wheat.It is recommended that all wheat state farms be subjected to exhaustivetechnical and economic analysis.
81. Although wheat production on small farms is being emphasized i.nthe Second Plan, the present low yield of 4-5 bags per acre offers littleincentive for smallholder wheat production. The key to self-sufficiencyin wheat production will depend mainly on whether a technological break-through and agronomic competence can be achieved which will boost averageyields by 50-100 percent in the same manner as hybrid maize has revolution-ized maize production in Njombe District. In Njombe District, for example,farmers are averaging 4 bags of wheat per acre of 160 shillings grossreturn per acre from wheat as compared to Sh 545 per acre from hybridmaize in 1968. In 1968, 945 farmers each planted one acre of hybrid maizeand received average yields of 15 bags per acre as compared with one-halfbag per acre from local maize varieties. It is recommended that wheat notbe promoted by extension as a priority crop in the Njombe District.
82. The world price of wheat fell in 1969 following expanded worldproduction. In light of the decline in world wheat prices in 1969 and thelikely continuation of relatively low world wheat prices in the 1970's, itis recommended that Tanzania re-examine its Dolicv of trving to achieve self-sufficiency in soft wheat production during the Second Plan except in theevent of a maior technological breakthrough.
83. In Addition to reconsidering its noliev of self-aufficiencv. itis recommended that a technical-economic analysis is made of the cost ofnrndit--ino wh.at in trh Southern Highlanda An enmnA-ed with the marginalcost of increasing wheat output in the Arusha/Kilimanjaro regions. Sincethe RSouthern h'ihlands is A hbbh eARt n rVn lnO ArPA 4ImMediAte ntPnn nhoUld
be taken to expand applied research on fertilizer and variety tools, handtools, and ox-plaw demomnnstr-ationn- Alan- aimnla farm huAgotina shnould hecarried out in major districts in the Southern Highland where wheat isbeing given priorit- in order that the rovp prinrIties whirh have beenmainly developed on technical grounds can be "refined" to take into accountteh prf:4It_b 14 F- ^f n - n Ats4n& whant- ninA nli-to not 4"n no of- t1ha fmithe prof1tabIl~ty of prmdw.irg alter_ve crops r
level.
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84. It is recommended that the crop priorities be relaxed in orderto give the extension staff the freedom to downgrade wneat as a hign prior-ity crop in districts - such as Njombe - where alternative crops are sub-stantially more profitable to farmers. A monolithic national policy ofself-sufficiency in wheat which is rigidly adhered to at the districtlevel through the promotion of wneat witnout regard to economic criteriawill undermine the educational role of extension agents, when alternativesto wheat are more profitable to the farmer.
85. It seems likely that the northern part of Tanzania will continueto be the lowest cost producing area. For this reason the Government maydesire to assist small African farmers in the northern area with extensionadvice, credit, etc.
86. It is encouraging to note that attempts are being made to securetechnical assistance on wheat research, fertilizer and variety trials andthat discussions are under way to link wheat research in Tanzania withwheat research at Njoro, Kenya. The 1968 Canadian Team report offersexcellent technical advice on a wide range of problems facing wheat pro-ducers. However, the Canadian team did not include an economist. Forthis reason, an experienced production economist is needed to guide gov-ernment policy with respect to wheat production, pricing and marketing.
87. Sugar. Sugar is presently produced for domestic consumption only.Production during the past five years developed as follows:
Table 13: SUGAR PRODUCTION AND IMPORTS, 1964-68('000 tons)
Production 60.5 66.3 69.9 70.6 81.1
Imports 1.9 2.5 1.6 1.9 7.1
Source: The Second Five-Year Plan; Ministry of ARriculture Crop StatisticalReport January 1969; Annual Trade Summary, Tanzania, Uganda and
88. Sugav cane is nresentlv nroduced by five estates, four privateand one Government (Kilombero). Smallholder production is restricted tothe 41r^.mVrn Aara where thev enntrlbute about 12.5 nercent of the fac-tory's cane intake. An equal portion is supplied by larger outgrowers.
89. The Plan projects production to reach 110,000 tons in 1974, whichrepresents W^ual gr^wth rate of 7 n pe rcnt .Details of the prospeetsfor expansion are spelled out in other sections (para. 233).
90. Rice. Paddy production during the past 6 years was as follows:
Table 14: PADDY PRODUCTION AND RICE IMPORTS, 1962-68('000 tons)
1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968
Production (paddy) 80.9 99.0 109.2 92.9 129.2 108.5 n.a.
imports (rice) n.a. 2.4 1.6 4.5 14.9 2.5 16.6
Value of Imports(Sh million) n.a. 3.1 1.7 4.3 15.8 3.6 19.9
Source: Ministry of Agriculture; East African Trade Reports.
The Second Plan aims to turn Tanzania from a net importer to an exporter ofrice on a modest scale by 1974. However, production plans are vague exceptfor establishing 13,000 acres on state farms. Currently, extension does nothave any rice varieties or a package of inputs which will significantly in-crease yields. For example, the Ifakara research station does not have arice variety to release to farmers which will increase rice yields by morethan 10-15 percent. Also, Ifakara does not have solid fertilizer recommen-dation to offer to farmers. Presently, there is no rice breeder either atIfakara or Ilonga research stations.
91. Rice production is expanding rapidly in the world and the longterm world price of rice is expected to decline by 20-25 percent by themid-1970 's.
92. It is recommended that rice research receive high prioritythrough the addition of a small number of experienced plant breeders andagronomists at Ifakara and Ilonga. Also, Tanzanian restrictions onimporting new rice varieties from the International Rice Research Institutein the Philippines should be reviewed. It seems unwise to prevent research-ers from tapping the research and development experience of the Interna-tional Rice Research Institute. Pakistan, India and now West Africancountries are experimenting with new rice varieties from the Philippines.
93. Rice is a protected crop in Tanzania. If rice yields can beboosted through new varieties it seems likely that Tanzania can becomeself-sufficient and that rice prices to consumers may be reduced. However.in light of the likely decline of 20-25 percent in the world price of riceby the mid-1970's, Tanzania should drop the goal of trvina to export rice.Other export crops are likely to be far more profitable than rice.
Nutritionally Superior Foods
94. Dairying. Commercial milk supplies originate almost exclusivelyfrom some 12,000 crossbred dai. c COW, which yield in -le rage 3j0uuvgallons per lactation. Approximately half of these are owned by small-holders in herds of 1 to 4 artimalls . IIhese sualilholuders, matirt'Ly Lir the
Kilimanjaro area sell surplus milk to neighbors at prices ranging between60-80 cents per pint. The remaining 6,000 dairy-type anirmals are on largerfarms which supply milk to dairies in Arusha and Dar es Salaam. Fluid milkprices 1n Tanzania are art4flca.l.y high vJu accourLt ofL the Ken%yan I ai dairy
policy which maintains restrictions on the supply of fresh milk to theEast African market by channeliug part of its output to the low-priceEuropean butter market. Milk yield of native Zebu cattle is about 70-100gallons per lactation. This mllk is used by the suckling calf and by thefamily owning the cow.
95. Tanzania is importing the equivalent of 37,000 gallons wholemilk equivaler. per day. In 1968, milk ard dairy product imports wereworth Sh 32 million. This deficit represents the likely local yield ofsome A0,000 exotic and u-pgraAeA cattle.
96. Imports of dairy products fall into two main groups, namely,high cost fresh milk from Kenya and milk powder at low unit cost. Fluidmilk imports from Kenya average 3.7 million gallons a year at a cost ofabout Sh 12 million. The equivalent cost for milk reconstituted fromskim milk powder and butter oil would be about Sh 7 million per year ifconstituents were bought at current world market prices. This cost wouldbe even lower if nutritionally equivalent filled milk were used.
97. Only limited areas, by virtue of elevation and rainfall, arewell suited to dairy farming. Some of these areas are already denselypopulated and have only 'imited land available for dairying. Areas oflong term potential are in the Morogoro and the Arusha/Moshi regions.
98. To promote efficient dairy development the Government shouldestablish a dairy policy for the 1970-1979 period. Although there is aneed to improve nutritional standards of the population, efforts todevelop dairy in all parts of the country are not likely to be success-ful. Development should be concentrated in areas of high populationdensity. Preliminary data suggests that dairy cows in the Arusha/Moshiregion will yield a very attrative return on investment to farmers. Sincethe Arusha creamery is only operating at 1/3 capacity, whole milk productionshould be encouraged in this region and, when the plant reaches full capacity,a decision can be taken whether to expand the capacity at Arusha or move themilk to Dar es Salaam for pasteurizing.
99. There is a great deal of confusion among government officers(and among some bilateral donors) on whether to encourage state farmsand dairy plants to manufacture butter and ghee, or to produce freshmilk until fresh milk imports are eliminated. In fact, premature move-ment into the manufacturing of dairv products has already occurred e.g.the milk powder plant at Mara which will soon be expanded under Danish
technical assistance. The decision to expand the Mara plant to producemilk products i.e. ur±eu skim wmilk, uutter aulu s ±lee I gnIULe Lthe uaUsc
price structure of milk in Tanzania. As long as Tanzania is importingfresh milk from Kenya, every effort should be made by Tanzania producersto supply the fresh milk market rather than producing for the lower priceddairy products. Although the Mara project has a positive benefit cost ratio,it should be reviewed and a comparison made of the economics of processingwhole milk versis prv.assing of dairy prod zuch as ghza, Lutter andpowdered milk, particularly if the proposed improvement in roads creates amore favorable outlook for fresh milk.
iOO. The Government is producing dairy cattle for small farmers througha number of dairy cattle multiplication centers at Mbeya, Kitulo, Essenin-gor, Oljoro, North Mara and West Lake. These centers will probably be anefficient method of up-grading Zebu stock and producing cross-bred heifersfor farmers. However, the cross-bred heifers should not be restricted tolocal farmers surrounding these multiplication centers but rather chan-nelled to strategic low-cost milk producing areas which can supply at lowtransport costs to the Dar es Salaam market and also other smaller freshmilk markets such as Mwanza, Bukoba, Tabora, etc. Currently the mortalityof heifer calves in the Kilimanjaro area is extremely high. Since freshmilk sales are more profitable than feeding milk to calves, it is recom-mended that heifer calves to be purchased by the Government are reared in dairymultiplication centers.
101. Presently the Ministry is responding to a number of dairy proposalsfrom bilateral agencies. These proposals should be reviewed within anational framework. Therefore, it is recommended that a joint technical-economic working party be set up on dairy production and marketing policyto make recommendations concerning:
a) ways and means of making whole milk supplies available ingreatly increased quantities to low income consumers, in linewith national nutritional objectives and, in particular, toconsider within the context of the East African Community thecase for the sale (at prices significantly below presentwhole-milk levels) of reconstituted imported skim milk or'filled milk' (DSM reconstituted with vegetable fat);
b) whether the price of whole milk, which is currently determinedby the price of imports from Kenya, can be reduced by offer-ing Kenya a contractual share of the Tanzanian market for afixed period of time, or through some other negotiated arrange-ment;
c) the probable long-run level of whole-milk prices when demandfor whole-milk at current price levels is mainly or whollysatisfied from Tanzanian producers and supply restrictionsare not imposed;
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d) the ranking of alternative potential production areas inTAn7aniA in order of nrioritv fnr develnnmpnr in the light
of the predicted long-run level of milk prices, bearing inmind algn nnsibhle deuvlnnomnts in transnprt fAniliti.a and
urban population growth;
e) the scale and sequence of investment in whole-milk productionnrniport and the halnncep het-wer. large and TmnAl-l-nlAI dair.,
farms;
f) the benefits and costs arising from investment in the manu-facturlnt of dairy products -a-d slternative locations andtiming of investment in dairy plants;
g) the appraisal of the necessary infrastructural investmentfor dairy development 4n Tanzania, including -e----ch,farmer's education, water supplies, roads, credit and veteri-nar.y aUnJU aniM-l1 -u-ar.dr; ---- rl -I.d -- 14 . . 1A .tions
for efficient planning and implementation procedures and
102.. JDL.ee' Cattle. 'aiates ol cattle UUn-ers are l aU areusually quoted at about 11 million head, most of which are shorthorn Zebus.Most cattle are kept extensively ou naturaUL grass'ala iLn areas of 'lw rain-fall. About 12,000 crossbred cattle are mainly kept for dairying. Thenational herd has grown at about 4 percent a year over the 1960-69 period:
103. The FAO Livestock identification mission (FAO Report 15/69 TAN 4)inrdicated that about 34 percent of the national herd are fertile Cos. Atan average calving rate of 50 percent, annual calf production amounts toabout 'LI percent of 0.th.. S ut-i 1 fherd. A In percent calf . ortality IA-4
the first year and 10 percent during the second year yields a theoretical
offtake at about 11 percent. Since the national herd grew at about 4 per-cent and allowance has to be made Lfor auu'Lt catteLe 1088es,i conLumpt±1i off-
take was probably as low as 3-5 percent annually. This figure is partiallysupported by the number of annual hides and skins sales which are in theregion of 1.2 million.
104. The Plan anticipates that traditional beef production will growat the rate of 3 -eei.C a year and that th-e DC. eritar-ing the zecordzdmonetary economy will grow by 5 percent a year. The 5 percent rate alsoincludes increases in dairying and other animal production. Based on pastperformance, however, beef production is likely to continue to increase atabout 3 percent annually, both in the traditional system as well as in themarket economy.
105. A current project which is financed by IDA will reach full produc-tion only by 1976/77, and will not contribute significantly to beef produc-tion increases during the Plan period. Furthermore, production from theproject would, after full development, contribute only about 3 percent tototal marketed beef output. The establishment of additional State, TSC andNAFCO ranches as proposed in the Plan will not contribute to an increase inproduction until 1974.
106. Currently, considerable attention is being given to improvingtraditional herds. The components of this approach are reducing calfmortality, reducing cattle losses and offering incentives to cattle ownersin the form of better prices through improved marketing. The Plan providesnumerous projects which would help improve the off-take of traditional herds.However, most of the projects are isolated and not integrated into a com-prehensive livestock program. Since major bottlenecks are water supplies,overgrazing, disease and marketing, solutions to these problems should bedeveloped through "package programs". Establishment of ranching associations,as provided by the 1964 Range Development and Management Act, represents apilot approach to a package program. Rotational grazing on the UNDP-AIDassisted ranching schemes is facilitated by the introduction of fencing andwater supplies. Since East Coast Fever and trypanosomiasis contribute tohigh calf and cattle mortality, programs for establishing cattle dips andtsetse control have to become integral parts of beef cattle developmentprojects. Improvements of stock routes and provision of holding groundswould also be part of an overall beef cattle prolect. Establishment of anew meat plant at Shinyanga and slaughter houses at strategic points, com-bined with fixed marketing dates. qualitv grading and more consistent pro-ducer prices, should result in providing incentives for increased cattlesales.
107. A maJor opnortunitv for improving the beef industry ia to improvethe productivity of cattle through cross-breeding. However, cross-breedingmU8-t an hand in hand wilth investmAnts in tick centrol; water sunnlies tc..The increase Ln value productivity is likely to provide sufficient incentiveto secure cbhanges in the vAluep; and organ17atinn nf the tr8ditinnal cattlp
herders who control the majority of the nation's cattle. Government emphasis
should be directed to expanding the number and size of livestock multiplica-tion units and in reua.sing t4ik eontrol nroarmams= Finsllv ran._hing eason-4-
tions should be regarded as an experiment rather than a program ready fori mlementation. alge scale
108. Sheep, Goats, Pigs ad PoultrV. In 1967 sheep and goats rnbhered
2.8 and 4.4 million respectively. Indications are that the total numbershaeremai4ned4 fairly static ir. recent -ears. Fi-ures from the sale of skins
indicate that 500,000-700,000 sheep and 1.3 to 1.6 million goats were slaugh-tereA 4n 10:7. nf thse^ animals,on1 y 30,00 sheep 0--d 1000 gonn w^ re
%S UA L2 .V i 1X__ _.7 .-t_ei
slaughtered in licensed abattoirs. Sheep are mainly hair types rather thanwoo'l produucers ar.d the4'Mr vau lies ir. the6 prod4uctior. of' utton -'u8 skins
WUIJ. JLUUU.~ 5 .LL LI~.~. VCGJ,%A=A . J.A .&= & W L~~U. %.A~I ~ b"u6.I** ~for bedding, clothing and for sale. Goats are kept for the same reasons.Both' 'for-- anr. ipportaant p0artf ofA t-he subslistence economy.
10J-V. Sneep and goats togeLti'lser ±su ' y about .13L pect o toLta'L meatproduction, primarily for family subsistence or private sale within ruralareas. Tne only commercial trade in mutton i.s for the Dar es Salaam market,which amounted to about 37,000 animals or about 1 million lbe dead weightin 1967, representi,Lg about 6 percent of thle ciLty's at consumption.
110. Tne Kitulo ranch, Njo-mbe District, currently has 12,000 Corriedalesheep. Plans have been prepared to increase the number to 40,000 sheep on23,000 acres with the objective of supplying all requirements for nighquality mutton in major towns and also producing wool and meat for export.Tne project is being assisted by the FA0/UNiDP. Tne FA0/UNDP staff willcomplete their work in March 1971. In 1969 wool sales from Kitulo were80,000 lbs at an average export price of 2 shillings per lD of wool. It isstill too early to determine the profitability of the Kitulo project. In1967/68 the scheme incurred an operating deficit of Sh 320,000. An FAOagricultural economics consultant will analyze the 1968/69 accounts inearly 1970. Tne consultant should be requested to advise the Governmenton the economic viability of the project, by preparing three sets ofcalculations in order to guide government planners and the FAOuI4DP. Theseare:
(a) forward management accounts to assess the profitability ofthe scheme operated as a state commercial venture. Thisshould explore the implications of alternative scales ofoperation;
(b) benefit/cost synthesis for guidance on the establishment ofa second ranch elsewhere in Tanzania, the new scheme utiliz-ing the experience gained from the Kitulo project, and
(c) benefit/cost appraisal of the FAO/UNDP project for the benefitof future FAO/UNDP activities.
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111. Pork. There are only a few thousand pigs in Tanzania. Althougha large seg-entAIl ofL L`Lhe pLUVii wo uLV=&XLU ny Lb.LrLv.LULd LLULUo
eating pork, pig meat is generally not appreciated. Imports of pork for theexpatriate c-unity are vaLuedU at around Sh J1.4. illu a year, and comemostly from Kenya. Some import substitution could be achieved by establish-iing one large scale pig farm, preferably under TSC management on one of theformer sisal estates.
112. Poultry. Estimates of poultry numbers and consumption of poultrymeat and eggs are unobtainable since only a very smaii proportion of totaiproduction is sold through official market channels. Dressed poultry valuedat Sh 1 million is imported annually. Since there are some taboos on eggconsumption and since effective demand is an important constraint, onlymodest attention needs to be devoted to poultry. Establishment of one largecommercial broiler unit, similar to the one recommended for pig production,could probably lead to sizeable import reductions.
113. Fisheries. Tanzania, with an annual catch exceeding 100,000 tons,is one of the largest fish-producing countries in Africa. Although blessedwith a coastline of about 500 miles on the Indian Ocean, there has beenlittle development of sea fisheries, which account for less than 20 percentof total catches. Main suppliers of fish are the inland waters, with catchesfrom Lake Victoria accounting for about 40 percent of total production.
114. Available statistics, based largely on estimates, indicate a levelof annual production as follows:
~~ T vJ~~~. Lfl1 I. q CI .C I fl 'j'~ f li .I -, n 'n - '- . r ¶AILake ViLctor'L 49.'4 3J.6 46.9 .6U.U 41.2 i4I. . I.J.)J . 3.'4 41±.8
Lake Tanganyika 16.2 3.6 15.8 3.4 15.0 3.3 22.5 12.9 23.3 7.7f _t__ %_l_^ n It. 1. 17 In 12 - so 9 rn - I I I I rs I aLake Aukwa 10.0 4.4 7.0 3.. 19.4 58 2.0 6 .60 1J.8 4.0
115. The annual per capita fish consumption is about 20 lbs and isassumed to be growing rapnidly na s A lauilt nf joronenae In 4ncomes
116. There is little information on the fish potential of the contin-ental shelf and inland waters. However, international experts are confidentthat present production is taking - only a minor share of exploitble fishMore information should become available through the Fisheries Training andMar4ne Research station, Kur.duchi, the es*abl4sh.ment of which -is now in
progress under a Dutch technical assistance project. In regard to inlandfis8herices, Take Victoria 4e b-elng ir.vestigated ur.der a "'niD pro'ect arduCJ.L .& L . TL . o, .. L. L ... k..4 J L - Ahl:Jl ~.a similar project for Lake Tanganyika is under discussion. Unfortunately,the Zanzibar East Coast Fisheries Research station WhiCh previously engagedin tuna, long lining and other marine research activities is, not function-'rng on account of a lack oL qual.f'eu stsf-.
117. Marketing operations are conducted by small dealers and distribu-tion is hampered by limited availability of storage and transport facilities.Tnus, fresh flish is only sold -within the vicinity of fish-landing centers.Marketing outside these areas is based on smoked or sun dried fish. Preser-vatiLon method's are prim'itive adiu resuLt 1 'Losses of around 25 percent.
118. During the First Plan a fisheries division was established in theMinistry. The Fisheries program has grown at a phenomenal rate. The numberof field officers nas grown from 9 to 126 and the number of field assistantsis now 376. Since it is proposed to train additional field officers duringthe Second Plan at tne new station at Kunduchi, it is recommended thatfurther expansion should be held in abeyance until an appraisal of thefisheries program can be completed. This appraisal should determine if the129 field officers and 376 field assistants have profitable technology, andprocessing and marketing advice to offer to fishermen, and whether thenumber of the extension staff should be expanded or possibly reduced andtransferred to other sections of the Ministry. This analysis is importantin light of the substantial growth of the industry during the First Planwithout any appreciable extension assistance.
119. The Second Plan proposes to expand the fish catch by 9 percenta year. It appears that the fisheries section should use the early partof the Plan period to consolidate its activities - rather than train morestaff - and lay out a program of work which is consistent with the contribu-tion of fisheries to GDP and national nutrition targets, and reconciled withthe manpower shortages in other sections of the Ministry of Agriculture.
120. Staple Food Crops. The rate of growth of food production isslightly above population growth rates. The increased demand for staplefood (as a result of population growth and modesit increases in per capitaincome) has been met without the need for concentrated staple food cropproduction campaigns. Approximate estimates of staple food production aregiven in the table below.
121. Since manpower resources are limited, it is unwise to devoteadditional extension workers to food crops in the Second Plan except wherebreak-throughs in food crop technology are forthcoming. If new food croptechnology becomes available - such as a new rice or maize variety - thenit seems desirable for the appropriate District Agricultural Teams to developa production campaign with the assistance of Planners from the Ministry.Although food crop campaigns should be developed by the District agriculturalteams, assistance will be needed from the Planning Section in reorderingcrop priorities. For example, in Njombe District, although hybrid maizeis now far more profitable to farmers than wheat, the District Team ishesitant to encourage farmers to produce maize because wheat is viewed bynational planners as a high priority crop.
122. Maize is the only cereal crop which has achieved a technical break-through following the introduction of hybrid maize (from Kitale, in Kenya)in Njombe District and Ukiriguru Composite A maize varieties in the cottonzone. These new varieties will enable the NAPB price of maize to be reducedgradually to import price levels. The reduction of maize prices is essentialin order to reduce the cost of maize to consumers and poultrv producers.
Forestry
123. Tanzania has an estimated 160,000 sauare miles of forests. includ-ing about 35,000 square miles of tropical high forest and 600 square milesof mangrovea. About 50,000 square miles of thig area have been set asideas Forest Reserve. Until 1968 about 66,000 acres of softwood and 6,000acras of hardwood nlantations were entAblinhed. Ahoutt 23.O00 arren ofindigenous forests have been brought under intensive management.
124. In 1968/69 forestry contributed about 1.7 percent of the GDP, withaunhaitan'p nrntdit,tion an'-ountina for 1.1 nerrent And marketed outnut 0.7
percent. The large share of forestry production for subsisteance is explained.by its importance as the alst exclulve supplier of fuel (450 millinn r_ft in 1968) and timber for housing construction.
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Imports and exports of soft and hard wood are as follows:
Table 18: FOREST IMPORTS AND EXPORTS, 1964-68(Volume '000 cu ft)
125. Present domestic consumption of sawn hardwood is estimated at2.4 million cu ft and that of sawn softwood at 1.7 million cu ft a year.Exports of fine hardwoods could be increased by diverting domesticallyconsumed timber to outside markets and substituting in its place soft-woodseither imported or locally grown. This would facilitate taking advantageof the price differential which was Sh 11.50 a cu foot in 1968. Furtherefforts to increase exports would require a more agressive promotion campaignfor hardwood species which are presently little known in foreign markets.
126. Large scale investments in logging units and sawmills would have toawait the outcome of forest inventories to permit establishment of theseindustries at strategic points near the most promising forest areas. Consid-ering the time element involved in undertaking forest inventories, no largescale increases in hardwood output can be anticipated during the Plan period.
127. Production from softwood plantations reaching maturity is likelyto yield an additional 2 million cu ft by 1974. Based on an estimated demandof 3.5 million cu ft of softwood and 2.5 million cu ft of hardwood for domes-tic requirement, .1 million cu ft of hardwood would become available for ex-port.
128. Continuation of soft and hardwood plantations also deserves priorityin the forest development policy. Indications are that domestic timber useis growing at about 6 percent annually, and is likely to grow even fasterin the future. More attention should be paid to the firewood problem becauseresources, especially in densely populated savannah areas (tobacco growingareas) are beina rapidly depnleted. Establi8hment of firewood plantationswould lend itself as an excellent scheme to be executed under the Ujamaa
129. There is a need for a henefit/cost tpprnlonl of the returns to
forest investment and also of recurrent expenditure, including skilled man-power. Although there is a co.siderable time lag before invesnt 4n foreasbegins to bear fruit, it may not be possible to support the Government's
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expansion program in forestry until this type of cost/benefit analysis iscarried out and the expansion of SoJv wn. 6t 4nflmatmant infagainst alternative investment opportunities.
C. Mission's Assessment of Agriculture in the Second Plan
130. The Plan sets a target growth rate for monetary agriculture of,he order of 7.2 rCbent -..h'-h would pro;;--- a net …ncrement to GDP of
Sh 615 million over the Plan period. The main assumptions underlyingthese projections are spelled out ln Table 3 - Statistical Appendix.
131. The mission has assessed the physical ouitput targets and priceson a commodity by commodity basis and believes that the monetary agricul-tural GDP could reach Sh 604 million in 1973 which is only about Sh 11 mil-lion short: of the amount estimated in the Plan. The mission estimates thatthe actual physical output will be about Sh 39 million less than the Plan'sestimate, mainly on the basis of reduced programs for soft wheat, rice,oilseeds, and livestock, and some expansion of sisal. The breakdown ofthe decrease in output is shown in Table 19.
Table 19: EFFECT ON GDP OF CHANGES IN PHYSICAL OUTOUT(Sh million)
Increase in Sisal Output +16.4Decrease in Output of:
132. The mission has estimated that monetary agriculture will con-tribute Sh 28.5 million more to GDP during the Plan on the basis of itsassumptions concerning changes in commodity price. The breakdown of theincreased output is shown in Table 20.
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Table 20: EFFECT ON GDP OF CHANGES IN PRICE ASSUMPTIONS(S2. mil4on)
The above data show that the increase in coffee prices -- as a result of thesevere 1969 frost in Brazil -- will dramatically increase the contributionof coffee to GDP, and will more than offset the decline in GDP arisingfrom lower cotton prices and the downward revision in prices of othercommodities. The combined effect on GDP of changes in physical outputand price assumptions (Sh -39.3 and Sh +28.5 million respectively) resultsin a monetary GDP of Sh 604 million, only Sh 11 million short of the Plantarget of Sh 615 million.
133. The mission's summary view of the growth of GDP by sector is shownin Table 21. The growth rate of monetary agriculture is 8.1 and the growthrate of subsistence agriculture is 3.0 -- which is in line with populationgrowth. The rather high growth rate - 8.1 percent for monetary agricul-ture - is greatly influenced by the unexpected increase in world coffeeprices since the publication of the Second Plan. World coffee prices areexpected to remain high for 3-4 years, i.e. until about 1973/74, at whichtime Brazilian coffee production is expected to return to the 1968 level.In summarv the mission estimates that the actual output of monetary agri-culture can grow at 8.1 percent (as compared with the Plan's estimate of7=2 npe'pnt). nrovided the required changes are made in matters such asimproved technical-economic evaluation of projects, increased flexibilityin crop prionritieps a rpassessme1nt of self-suffiripncv in soft wheat and
dairy production, improved manpower planning etc. A more detailed dis-cussion of these np-int-u iR inritidad in Chanter ITT. Tt muat bh emnhasi7edthat, but for the increase in coffee prices, and the virtual disappearanceof tbe sua_ p ri e-differentl t betee ntn ut d nonnn,-uota T nakets the
likely rate of growth of monetary agriculture would have been appreciablylower tLLUXA tUh 7. pereer.trate as pro4ectd i. t Plan.
134. Subsistence output is assumed to increase in line with populationg ro FtA 4-4. 4"~"-- 4 _ w .A - h . 1 1u 260 million.. #.p a AI .os 4-Ik -X
o-- *-- fls .... a..^. - .eW v v Jf £. _tA _v,StU vu w*L S * l ma. lsLCJ%&; ' s.4&Xvu,^ z
estimate is not amenable to detailed analysis with the information presentlyava4lable or. subsisten.ce agriccult01-ure, the, missi.A. beleve ththevau
of subsistence output may have to be reduced, in view of the probable de-cline lr. the priLce of maize.
135. The mission's projection of agricultural exports during the Plan isshown in Table 22. The total value of agricultural exports is expected toincrease by about 50 percent during this period. Agricultural exports willrepresent 86.5 percent of the value of total exports in 1973 as comparedwith 81.6 percent in 1968.
Table 22: MISSION PROJECTION OF AGRICULTIIRAL EXPORTS
1968 (Actual) 1973 (Estimate)Commodity Quantity Price Value Quantity Price Value
Acdninis trat ion Agriculture Production Fiaheries Plant Water
and Per sonnel -_ Food and and SectiDn Research _ Eupplies -
Secti o. Advisory - Develeent SectionServices SectionSec Li on Forest Agroa'
Section AnLimal (Trrigati on)
Finance TechniLcal Resesrch
and Sevenue Aninal Services Section
Sectiorn Inrdustry __ ti on ForeotSecti on Tndus tries
Proje c t Tradning and
Technical AcCounits and Section Fenners' _
Cooperation -- Stres3 EducationSection Section
N2orongoro
I'1ianing ConservationMarket:ing Sectionald --
StatisticsSec ti on
1.U. T(7WARDS A STRATEGY FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN TANZANIA
A. Governmental Organization
136. Tne Ministry of Agriculture, was reorganized early in 1969 andrenamed the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Cooperatives. Food andCooperatives were added to Ministry's title in order to reflect theArusha Declaration's emphasis on food production and the cooperative orga-nization of production. The reorganized Ministry included one adminis-trative division and five technical divisions. Subsequently in March1969 the Water Development and Irrigation Department (WD&ID) was trans-ferred from the Ministry of Lands, Settlement and Water Development tothe Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Cooperatives. Trhe divisions andsections in the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Cooperatives areshown in Chart I.
137. In addition to the reorganization of the central headquarters ofthe Ministry two other major changes were made to ensure better coordina-tion of agricultural programs. First, all agricultural parastatals suchas NAFCO, TSC, etc. were made responsible to the Ministry. Second, theMinistry's field organization was decentralized in order to give greaterautonomy to the Regions and Divisions. Two new key positions were es-tablished in order to carry out the policy of decentralization. Theposition of Regional Director of Agriculture (RDA) was established foreach Region. The Regional Director is a fully executive position andhe is responsible to the Principal Secretary in Dar es Salaam, for carry-ing out a regional program of agricultural development. The RDA is sup-ported by a team of specialists officers which cover all the importantservices in the region. In addition a Regional Ministerial ExecutiveCommittee is to be formed in each region. Each district is headed by aDistrict Coordinator who is in charge of all ministerial administrationin the District.
138. In order to coordinate the Central, Regional and District struc-ture, a Ministerial Executive Committee has been formed comprising: a)the Minister, b) the Principal Secretary, c) the Directors of Divisions inthe Ministry, d) Regional Directors, and e) Research Directors.
139. A preliminary appraisal of the new Ministerial organizationpoints up a number of desirable features. Perhaps the major achievementis to bring all major governmental agricultural programs into one Minis-try. The merging of agriculture and animal industry into one Divisionhas reduced the tendency for these programs to be planned independentlyof each other. The integration of research into one Division will faci-litate the development of a national and Community research grid. Thecreation of a National Resources Division should aid in developing anintegrated approach to natural resources instead of maintaining frag-mentary program of fisheries, forestry and wild animals. While these meas-ures have been useful, it should be possible to improve efficiency furtherby tackling one or two prevailing organizational problems. These are:
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a) there appears to be a lack of central direction for exten-sion work. Eytension advisorv aRsiRtance for smAll farmers and 1iAmTa
villages is diffused among the Agricultural Division, Production Division,Research ,nA Tvalning DiYu{Rnin and the WD&TD. The lAnk of eentral direc-
tion is reflected in the lack of a production campaign for cotton, oneof the most important crops, tha hl4fting of fialA ev.tnaion personn el ata rapid rate - although this was probably a temporary phenomenon - and thepostirng of extension workers in a manner which has not alwa, en-,ured themaximum pay-offs to extension; and
b) the Research and Training Division has yet to provide theleadership required in de AnlowlA4gr a natioenal resarcrh. ysat-
140 Co-nsid-era-io-. shrouldA b1e gi.er.to the4 fol_i. ehar.-s ir h
organization of the Ministry of Agriculture, with a view to streamliningits workm-:
al I cl.JOse WoLrLng.relati oL.ship will A.a W.JL *LVVS eU UC UdVelUoeU
with the technical divisions. It seems desirable tocreate a p1anning cell lr.4V L sm L& .f te lr 4.v.ii.o-ls,
such as WD&ID and the Production Division. The PlanningSectior. should expand t-o about 15-20 experier.ced plarr.ers
in production economics, marketing, manpower planning,farm managemetu, pricig.g, etc. AJ.LuhLI a team of 8iX
FAO experts has recently joined the Planning Section, themagnitude of the planning pEouiLem Will require about I5experienced agricultural planners working in Headquartersand parastatals, and five working in the field on regionaland district plans, crop priorities, monitoring the progressof development projects, special problems such as backwardareas (Kigoma and Sumbawanga), and developing farm plansfor bringing smailholders into the Kahe irrigation scheme;
b) the Administration, Personnel and Planning Division maybenefit from its being reorganized as the Administrative,Personnel and Training Division. This reorganized divisioncould be a service unit to the Ministry and be primarilyconcerned with overall manpower planning and administration.Presently, the are over 10,000 posts in the Ministry.Major attention should be devoted to manpower planning.The training function is, of course, related to manpowerplanning. Even if it is not possible to reorganize theDivision to the extent suggested, steps should be takento ensure that there is close coordination of effort amongthose responsible for personnel and training work;
c) the position of District Coordinator should be reviewed.There is probably inadequate justification for keeping 66experienced personnel engaged in routine, low level adminis-trative tasks at the District level. Planning can be donefor agriculture, for example, by the District Agricultural
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Officer in coordination with the RAO and the RDA.The elimination of the post of District: Coordinator willrelease 66 trained personnel to concentrate on carryingout substantive programs in their area of specialization.For example, there is a critical need for experiencedagriculturalists to supervise the field assistants (themost common type of agent working with farmers);
d) the responsibility for large-scale government irrigationhas been centralised under one Division in WD&ID. A smallbut experienced team consisting of an irrigation agronomist,engineer and economist (who has now been recruited) is need-ed to provide the leadership in large tscale irrigation;
e) the responsibility for aiding small farmers and Ujamaavillages which is currently in the Production Divisionshould be transferred to the Agriculture Division. Itis planned to have some resident technical staff in theUjamaa villages.
B. High Level Manpower
141. Agricultural development in Tanzania, as elsewhere, requires theapplication of a wide range of technical and professional skills in orderto mount effective programs and projects. A scarcity of personnel in onecadre may significantly reduce the effectiveness and productivity of ex-pensively-trained staff in other cadres. A conscious review of the com-plementarities and balance between disciplines and their relationship tothe changing pattern of development opportunities is clearly of thehighest importance.
142. In the Dublic sector. in Darticular. Tanzania has inherited amarkedly hierarchical vertical structure within each professional cadre,with an associated gradation of training institutions. Agricultural andnatural resource manpower in the Ministry, for example, is categorizedby five levels of traininR, from the virtually untrained field assistant(FA) through the assistant field officer (AFO) with certificate-leveltraining, field officer (FO) with diploma training. agricultural (veteri-nary, forest, fisheries, etc.) officer (AO) with a University degree andhis more snecialized colleazues, often working on research. who have hadfurther, post-graduate level training.
143. The manpower stock available at the beginning of the Second Planto implement the nrogrAms of the MInistrv in indioated in *ogregate in
Table 5 - Statistical Appendix. Total vacancies at the beginning of thePlan were 7- vn,rer-ct nf the esal4ishment The establ4shment ca be In-creased annually, on the basis of demonstrated need, within a maximum limitof a a percent annual lr.crease i; total recurrent- expenditures for the Mir.-
istry. The approved establishment in the first year of the Plan has beenLncreasedu uy 1,330 posts, i.e. buy 13 percer.t. The omWJor LofLLese r.ew
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posts - nearly 80 percent -are at assistant field officer level or below.With the creation of these new posts and by filling 540 out of 827 vacanciesexisting at the beginning of the Plan, it is hoped to increase the numberof personnel in post from 10,297 to 11,340, i.e. an increase of 9 percentby the end of the first year of the Plan.
144. The 'technically-engaged' personnel of the Ministry, i.e. exclud-ing administrative and secretarial personnel, but including untrained fieldassistants, who were in post at the beginning of the Plan period were dis-tributed as follows:
Total Field Trained Staff Trained Staff as % of TotalAssts. (AFO and FO's) a)AFO & above b)FO & above
Crop Development 3,330 1,068 2,262 68.0 18.5
Livestock Development 2,219 1,312 907 40.9 9.6
Forestry (incl. Bees) 1,685 1,256 429 25.5 6.2
Game 1/ 749 625 124 16.6 10.0
Fisheries 521 376 145 26.8 7.5
Cooperatives 285 - 285 100.0 39.7
Total 8,789- 4,637 4,152 47.3 13.2
1/ Further analysis of the adeauacv of mannower for game nrograms has notbeen attempted here, as this input is best analyzed as a component ofthe tfn,riat Reptor.
2! The cpnvlet41ior. nf nn 1invntoi-i ^f Miniatv-v afnff biv ai4a4^n aind Reio4n
was still in progress at the time the mission was in Tanzania. Somemir.or chan.ges are expected from theA Amn uxs r-la by thm m4ss4in b utthese will not change the picture significantly.
145. The numerical strength of the Ministry is dominated by largen-LUULubers of relatively pFoorly A`uAated .LU fiel s .stant.s nd avSSistt fiLe LU
officers Grade 3 who have had only 6 months of 'crash' training.
146. High-level manpower was scarce at the beginning of the Plan. Thenet deficit in unfilled vacancies and requested posts not approved for thefirst year of the Plan is 85 diploma or graduate positions in agriculturecompared with 11 such positions for veterinary, forestry and fisheres com-bined. From field visits and interviews it was clear to the Mission that
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the scarcity of adequately qualified and experienced agricultural fieldstaff is quite serious. Over half the Tanzanian graduates in agriculturewere either in the Ministry in Dar es Salaam or in research and traininginstitutions. A minority of Regional Agricultural Officers visited bythe Mission possessed a degree, whilst quite a few District Coordinatorsand District Agricultural Officers generally lacked both the training andthe experience necessary to fulfill the developmental responsibilities oftheir positions. The relative weakness of district-level agriculturalstaffing in Ianzania is quite apparent compared to Kenya and Uganda where,however, a much smaller number of districts need to be manned.
147. Manpower planning for the agricultural sector in the Second Planis deficient in a number of respects. The total manpower demands arisingfrom programs in the sector, including parastatal demand, do not appear tohave been checked against the overall supply estimates which were made bythe Ministry of Economic PlanninR's Manpower Unit (see Volume IV of thePlan). This exercise would have indicated the magnitude of any shortfallsin particular cadres, with implications for technical assistance and train-ing policies, and the feasibility of implementing the full list of selectedpro4ects. Secondly! separate growth rates for the various nrofessionalcadres do not reflect their expected contributions to national income, butare probably the result of the 9 percent ceiling on recurrent exnenditurewhich is applicable to the Ministry.
148. An examination of the probable demand which is justified both byspecific prolects and by mannower:output ratino in the Stennd Plan rPUYAl1
a very serious shortfall in the supply of high-level agricultural manpower,narticularlv nf dinlnnmAten and graduiatesa i n cariuiiltu-ire andi he evpnliaA
agricultural and rural social sciences.
149. In Tanzania, the average return to manpower trained for work oncrop_ is considerably higher than in the other ma,or production areas. T.hispattern would remain broadly true even if one assumed a greater increase inlivestnor and fnvort nrnodic4in in the period after the Second Plan thanfor crop production, since such deferred increments to GDP would be subjectto hea., discou,nt rates. The substantially higher retur.n to extension oncrops suggests that training programs for additional veterinary and forestofficers should be given a relatively lower pr t - -p---
Plan. The mission considers that there is little economic justificationfor the M4nl8try's choIce of manpower growth rates shown in Table 7.
150. Est im-atO-ee s of the 19,691/74 supply soittuation tfor a-griLcult.ura.l useand diploma holders are given in Table 9 - Statistical Appendix. It islear that eve. if decision.s are tLallen rapidly tLo incease lntalkes iLto
the Faculty of Agriculture and Diploma courses, a significant increase ingraduuatLle andu dLp'Loma output car.not 'we achiUeved' uritLi'L tehle er.U o'U thLe Plar,.
However, the assumed rapid expansion of training facilities will requireadditiLona'l teachkers ar,d will make ver-y Lteavy aemanu' on thne existing andprospective supply of experienced high-level manpower.
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151. The estimated balance of supply and demand for graduates over thePlan period is shown in Table 10 - Statistical Appendix. The approach fol-lowed here has been to estimate the annual recruitment requirements to im-plement the agricultural projects and proposals in the Plan, using officialprojections and estimates wherever possible. This approach leans on theoptimistic side compared with a full review based on job specifications,since official demand projections tend to be adjusted to the short-run rela-tive availabilities of personnel of different grades and, therefore, tendto understate the real or justified demand for the scarcer, higher-levelcategories of personnel. It is clear that even on optimistic assumptionsabout the supply side, i.e. the earliest possible construction and staff-ing of agricultural training institutes and greatly improved performancein technical assistance recruitment - a significant shortfall of graduateand diploma-level manpower will nevertheless occur.
152. Volume IV of the Plan indicates a shortfall of 1,271 positionsin certificate level personnel for agriculture, veterinary, forestry,fisheries and game extension work. 1/ This shortfall appears to be anunderestimate, since it assumes an additional output of 450 certificateholders not specified in Volume II of the Plan. The shortfall would,therefore, amount to 1,721 positions in total. It will inevitably prolongthe period when reliance must be placed upon the virtually untrained fieldassistant as the direct contact agent with the farmer. When new techniquesrequiring greater sophistication are being introduced e.g. improved plantvarieties and livestock breeds, fertilizers, insecticides, etc., there isa danger that the farmers' problems will become more complex than the un-trained field assistant can handle.
153. The manpower analysis has revealed that the shortage of high levelmanpower will art an a maior constraint on the rate of agricultural proiectimplementation in the Second Plan. These calculations suggest that thereis a nped on Pithpr defer or delete between 25 nprernt and 30 nprepnt of
agricultural projects, measured by the input of high-level manpower. Thecpa-re-itvy will II moat ruvera in the f4rat three vyars of thp Plan= The
Planning Section of the Ministry of Agriculture has recently instituted arevlew of the manpower implications of projects and program . Th.ere ia Anurgent need for the Planning Section also to assess the manpower require-m.ts 4of par,astastal orga.nizations i4th a view to inatituti.na a coordirated
recruiting and training policy for the Ministry and the agricultural paras-tatals. In the altes,.-.ative, ther- ould b some co-pt4ti4 o. for- asncar
personnel among the various parastatal organizations and the Ministry withperhaps as m .asure of fru-stration all o round. Thi s 4is an area for nareful1manpower planning.
154. High priority must be given to agricultural training programs ifthLe over-riLLi.LLng manpower .or.6trs4r,t i9 Lo bL-je relieved, but sirce the O t rLaiLL
ing programs will themselves be heavy users of experienced high-level
1/ The Second Five-Year Plan, Volume IV, Table 5, page 12B.
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manpower, tne scarcity or personne; for otner projects will initiaily Deeven more severe.
155. There might be a temptation to make extensive use of lower-levelmanpower to substitute for the missing higher-level cadres, rather thandelaying the implementation of projects. Whilst the substitution of cheaperfor more expensive factors of production is, up to a point, in the interestsof economic efficiency, the process has already gone too far with agricul-tural personnel in Tanzania. Relatively poorly-trained personnel are com-monly found in positions for which their training has not equipped them.Technical training at the certificate level is quite inadequate for theduties of a District Agricultural Officer, let alone the more senior ofposition District Coordinator. Yet many of these posts have been filledby certificate level personnel. A reasonably objective indicator of abilityis provided by the content and format of an officer's annual report.Problems arising from the scarcity of able staff are discussed further inthe section dealing with agricultural extension (paras 185-193). The presenttendency to downgrade training qualifications for specific posts in orderto adjust to the scarce supply of more highly trained personnel needs to bemodified. Unless training course content and entry levels are upgraded,average work performance will be inadequate and basically sound programsand projects will be placed in jeopardy due to poor imtplementation capacity.
156. An important factor raising the necessary annual recruitmenttargets is the high rate of turnover of expatriate staff. Table 8 - Statis-tical Appendix indicates that 50 percent of senior posts in the Ministry'shead office, and 70 percent in research and training institutions, were heldby expatriates in August/September 1969. Also, the tour of duty of expatriatesis short. When it is recalled that a minimum period for the planning, imple-mentation and analysis of many agricultural research prolects is seven toten years (e.g. perennial crops) the policy of offering appointments on two-year contracts is clearly unrealistic, if not actuallv counter-productive.It is recommended that Central Establishments adopt a more flexible attitudetowards the recruitment of high-level personnel required for long-term workprograms and provide such additional incentives as would induce expatriatesto stay for a further tour of duty. A related point is the need to improvethe efficiency of overseas recruitment for unfilled posts. It is reportedthat the Ministry has been receiving only one-third of the number of tech-nical assistance personnel requested. The shortages shown in Appendix Tables10 and 11 are based on the assumption of 100 percent plus recruitment per-formance in 1969/70. If technical assistance recruitment slows down a num-of prolects would have to be deferred on account of a serious staff shortage.
157. Whilst localization of senior positions in the civil service isboth politically desirable and would also enhance productivity throughgreater continuitv. it would be hiRhlv disadvantaeeous if the nressureto localize the services inhibits the maintenance of an adequate supply ofhigh-level maniner ittring anprind whpn losial manpower supply is bui1ding
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up. The morale and efficiency or the subsequently recruited indigenuoushigh-level manpower would suffer if the more senior positions are rapidlyfilled by unqualified local personnel.
158. A matter of serious concern is the possibility of an imminentloss of the hard core of highly experienced British personnel following thetermination of their contracts on OSAS terms. A large number of key oper-ational positions in the agricultural sector are held by staff on OSAS terms.These officials possess between eight and 20 years of experience in Tanzaniaor other tropical countries, but many of them expect to leave the countrywithin the next 12 months. The replacement of this scarce resource, to-gether with the high rate of turnover among other expatriates and volunteershas created serious problems in maintaining the level of activity in severalareas in the agricultural sector. The replacement of these expatriate staffwith other technical assistance personnel possessing adequate experience,language ability, professional qualifications and long-term commitment willbe particularly difficult. 1/
159. Although the manpower requirements for implementing the individualprojects were not aggregated in order to determine the training outputs foreach cadre, the prospective shortage of agriculturalists has been recognizedin the estimates of high-level manpower required through technical assis-tance in the Plan; assistance is being requested for 156 posts with cropproduction qualifications out of a total of 256 requests. Other assistancerequested was as follows: veterinary and tsetse control - 15; fisheries -12; and 25 posts each for cooperatives, forestry and game. This exerciseexcluded prospective technical assistance currently being negotiated forwheat production. Since the requests for technical assistance are only forthe Ministry, they ignore prospective demand from the parastatals, theMinistries of Rural Development, and Education (for secondary schools andteacher training colleges) and the new Faculty of Agriculture.
160. It is clear that given the inevitable shortfalls in manpowersupply, in each of the three main cadres, a determined effort must be madeto increase the productivity of existing staff and present institutions.This is particularly relevant in agricultural extension organization, whichholds one of the keys to the fulfilment of targets in the Second Plan.Recommendations on improving the productivity of existing manpower are madebelow.
Summary of Recommendations
161. High-level agricultural manpower i.e. holders of qualificationsin narie-tltilre nr related subJeets at rertificate level and above will be
1, Tz.zania couIA A-e4Al to ca: the tot*l cost of world anrket salaries
for U.K. personnel, but many specialists would be unwilling to acceptthe customar-y 'Lw o=-year con.tract wit.hout being8 lirked with-, ar, U erseaS
technical assistance agency.
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in serious deficit in relation to the demands projected in the Plan, es-npriallv ifn the first three years. It is imnnrtant that high-level man-power is recognized as the key constraint on the rate of implementationof proxectsa- Even if a vigonus overseas recriitment progrram for ex-perienced agriculturalists is maintained, there will still remain aserious manpower gap at the cert4fi4rae leuvl And above- This en,ld well
mean that projected investment in agriculture may fall short of the Plantarget by 25-30 percent. It is strongly urged thst the priority of allprojects for the agricultural sector be re-examined on a scarce manpowerbasigs.
162.1 The- M4risty' pln for ----- n 4 .- -sta4:ff 1/ is not- closel
related to the relative scarcities of personnel in the various cadres judgedJn aJgu- oc 'erepce cotiu._n to.* econo. 4cA growth~. Proritw, 4- thA.L .L.L Al L. L LLEJ .L J L .J ~ LU #_JIL.J. I.~ LLJ ~L.U L~JlJU 6'I LA SA .L .L Ly -i~ &L&I
allocation of recurrent expenditures must be given to increasing the numbersofL agr'Lcu'ltural'ly-tra'Lne'd personne'l for workr- on crop production programs.eIn the livestock sector, the main need is for a modest increase in animalproduction specialists rather than 'or veterinarians. Cadres in forests,bees, fisheries and game should be held at their present level pendingtechnical-economic evaluation or their effectiveness in contributing toeconomic growth. In the light of this assessment, a case may emerge forthe phased reduction in some relatively unproductive cadres.
163. The demand for experienced agricultural personnel at the graduatelevel will expand throughout the Second Plan. The first call on experiencedoverseas and Tanzanian agriculturalists will be to replace the British per-sonnel who are leaving Tanzania in 1970. The crucial role of expatriateexpertise in developing agriculture during the Second Plan should be recog-nized explicitly and rapid localization - particularly of key positions --avoided until local personnel of the required calibre emerge.
164. The needed expansion in existing and new training institutionsfor agricultural personnel at graduate, diploma and certificate levelscreates a major demand for teachers who are experienced agriculturalspecialists. It is recommended that these inatitutions should receivehigh priority for technical assistance.
165. Consideration should be given to extending the length of contractsfnr nvwrseaps prsnnn-L Therp shnold hp greater flexibili tv in the lengthof contracts, coupled with the introduction of stronger financial incen-t4Yes for second and sihspnxpnt tnors during the period when oversepspersonnel are still required. Central Establishments should pay partic-ular attention to ways of in.creasin the effectiveness of overseas recruit-
ment for agricultural positions. Contracts with overseas research insti-tCutes and universities might, offer a partiFal. solution..
1/ . .ese grUwtL rates underilie the staff traJln'Lng program set out i4n Ltie
Second Plan, Volume I, p. 35.
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166. The process of substituting cheaper, less well-trained personnelfor scarcer more highly trained extension personnel has already been car-ried a long way in Tanzania. The promotion of junior staff after relativelylimited experience should be curtailed, as exDanding flows of higher-lpvelagricultural manpower will become available in 4 to 5 years.
167. The requirements of various government ministries employingagriculturalists (Agriculture, Rural Development. Education. Home Affairs)and the rapidly expanding needs of parastatal organizations and marketingboards renuire careful coordination. The outnut of Agrituulttiral traininginstitutions should not be restricted to the Ministry of Agriculture; somenronortional sharing system related to the ewnpeted contri n of man-power to economic growth and other national objectives should be devisedhv rho PlAnnino IT-nit- nf thp MNln4itrv no s hncla f^v tho nI1n^at4^- ofbys the P1r.- as a _~ _f_.i. _h _11,.*I __ _ ___ ce_L manpower by the committee of the Government which has this responsibility.
168. Some of the adverse effects of the manpower shortage can bemi-ni'mized Ith.rough. transfer of staf f from marginally productive projectsor programs to those showing a promise of greater returns, and by in-creasing thot n,vrorlAuCtivity of cu,r.- envt1 _v alrn b 1 le 1er..
C. Research
169. Research or. crpsi carriedI out in fisve stat-ions ad- l'"vestock-.Lv.~ L%WO=CX&LIL '.'L % A.WO �O C L.JU J1L. LI L LV ~L_L.UI -L U ±LVtJ LUC
research in four stations. Each of these stations also maintains a numberof U substations locatCLed atL strategic points thrvughout thIte couUtry Lo covermost ecological zones, but there is no doubt that facilities would have to'Le expanded to providL'e aduequatLe co-verage fLor th'e whole country. Special-u ~ ~AJIu~ULJjLJ±~~~UL LVL~ Lut WIUt0IULLy JpL e-
ized research units exist for marine and freshwater fisheries, forestry,game, agriLcu'LturaL machiner.y, and anmal disease.
170. The overall situation of Tanzania's agricultural, forestry andfisheries research has continued to deteriorate. The shortage of qualifiedpersonne'l has becomie seri±ous, aru research programming is weak under theMinistry's recently established Research and Training Division. Also,research stations received a cutback in their budget for some items in 1969/70. For example, the vote for travel is 25-30 percent lower in 1969/70 thanin 1968/69.
171. About 70 percent of the researchers are expatriates. Among theTanzanian personnel only a few have any appreciable experience in research.The qualifications of some of the expatriate staff are average or belowaverage; the Government's policy to limit contracts to two years is notconducive to attracting and retaining experienced expatriates. The rapidturnover of researchers also hampers continuity of long term research pro-grams. The objective of the personnel policy is to replace expatriate staffby Tanzanians. Progress in this regard has been slow. Because of heavydemand for new science graduates by various government departments, onlyfive to eight graduates will become available annually during the SecondPlan for research posting. Since some attrition in present Tanzanian staffmust also be anticipated, it will be about 10-15 years before services ofexpatriates could be discontinued.
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172. The budget allocations for some research votes were reduced about25-30 percent: in 1969/70, despite increased responsibilities of the Agricul-tural Research and Training Division, which has taken over research insti-tutes for forestry, fisheries and game research during the fiscal year!for which provision was not made in the original budget estimates. Thisaction has taken place despite an overall increase of 10 percent in theMinistry's 1969 budget and, as a consequence, many promising research pro-grams had to be curtailed. The Research Division's inability to secureadequate funds may stem partially from the absence of careful evaluationof research nrnarams The assessment of rpeparch nriori tfie has been donnon an ad hoc basis and priorities have sometimes been changed.
173. The Plan envisages expansion of research facilities by establish-inO t-n n vi rpQpA-rrh -0nt=V-q_ nnv fowner ass 7Fttiirpo n1- Matra nnf -A fg two ne reerl -_ -- -" -bea -n_oe oforestry. The expansion of existing centers and establishment of new sub-stations is also envisaged. TotalI nves*ten.t for this purose would beabout Sh 46.7 million. In the light of the manpower shortage, the proposedtsetse contr~oll re-se-arch inst4itute ar.d a r,atl4or.sl fooA ar.d r,utrit-lon institute,tset e~...,..b...,, ~ i.., .. o .. a. .. * .a L.L~fla A. JJL ~AUu L. .A. LUIJ&. -A. L.A.L. L
are of doubtful priority. Increased research efforts,, especially breeding,f ne, 4 __vA , . _ _ -4 A@4A_{A_.. 4AAb_1 -A--w J_ _______
fruit and vegetables, and the early establishment of a soils research insti-tute are of high priority. Additonal research also needs to be undertakenfor tea and livestock, especially for improving sheep and goat production.In view of the potential for draft aniMal echanization, improvements inquality of staff at the Tanzania Agricultural Machinery Testing Unit (TAMTU)woul.d deserve! priority. - In this context iJ t might De weli woren to attachTAMTU to the Faculty of Agriculture at Morogoro to form the nucleus of aneventual agrLcultural engineer'ng department (para. 192).
174. Although there are many bottlenecks in individuai researcn stationsthe starting point for improved research programming lies in Dar es Salaam.lThe mi8ssiLon recommends that the Training Section of the Research and Train-ing Division be transferred to the Administration Division. It also recom-mends that high level technical aUiLstance be secured for providing Boundleadership in the Research Division in Dar es Salaam so that the Divisioncould concentrate on uatters such as the research needs of Tanzania, researchpriorities and how research productivity can be improved by better budgeting,reduced rotation of researchers, and the association of Tanzanian researchstations with the E.A. Community and International Research Institutes. Thedevelopment of a large number of new research stations may not be very produc-tive unless the overall administration of the present stations is greatlyimproved.
175. One of the methods by which the needed research staff is obtainedwould be to offer five-year contracts to the truly exceptional senior re-searchers and, when possible, to attach bright local personnel to them toensure continuity of sound research. Also, research contracts with overseasorganizations can be arranged for some research programs. This has alreadybeen undertakcen for cotton by employing the services of the Cotton GrowingCorporation. Similar action is now contemplated by contracting the French
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Institut de Recherches Agronomiques Tropicales (IRAT) for tobacco research.Contract research has three advantages: (a) securing qualified staff who, bycontinuing to work for the sponsoring organizations have the assurance of acareer in research; (b) benefiting from the world-wide experience of theseorganizations; and (c) attracting bilateral assistance.
176. Cotton researchers at Ukiriguru have been somewhat slow in trans-lating their findings into form which facilitates its utilization by exten-sion agents who may not be well-qualified. There are no plans for trans-lating the recently completed Cotton Handbook in Swahili. The recommendedInter-Regional Cotton Committee should expedite the translation of the majorpoints of the cotton handbook into Swahili at the earliest possible date.
177. It is recommended that a mobile research team consisting of anagronomist, soils specialist and farm management specialist investigatethe types of crops that can be grown at the farm level in Kigoma Region,Sumbawanga District, etc. over the next two years, in order to guide ex-tension programming. Currently there appears to be the view that increasedextension assistance to these areas will provide immediate results. Thepriority should be reversed and, until applied farm level variety trialsand fertilizer trials can identify profitable crops, it will be unwise toincrease scarce extension assistance in these areas.
178. A provision for five small horticultural research stations isincluded in the Plan. It is recommended that only one major horticulturalstation be established with appropriate field stations in the major ecologicalzones.
179. The proposal to set up a tobacco research station with technicalassistance from France is strongly endorsed. Since tobacco is a highpriority crop, and no research station current:ly exists, the proposed stationwould serve an important need.
180. Tanzania has demonstrated foresight in posting farm managementresearchers at major research stations such as Ukiriguru. It is recommendedthat thls npoicv h. extended and nersonnel Drovided to other stations. Also,the mobile farm management research team which is recommended to help refinecrop priorities aaat the nistrirt lpvpl shnoild maintain close contart with
farm management researchers posted at the major research stations.
181. The Coffee Board is reported to be willing to finance the entiretI..u .g a. ol ,c.e ranrcl a T Lyamuenn, T1. The Gr,Ve-mont Adoa nelt f-r"nrt.U>t5C J- _U J_ CC .. J - 7 r-- -
the view that the Coffee Board should finance and manage coffee research,a.AJLLt LLL i LAne of thLe Coffee RPsearcbh Flouna-i.o - .y.
i82. Ine objective of the fLacuLty ofJ LgrlcuLture at rol0goUro suld
be broader than merely to training diplomates and graduates; a researchfunction has in fact been introduced into the objectives arnd staffing
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plans at Morogoro. It is recommended that the Faculty of Agriculture developjoint research programs wit'n nwapwa a-n ±Iakara Research Stations. Unlessthe Faculty at Morogoro undertakes "grassroots" social, economic and tech-nical research, it may not be possible to develop a curriculum which isrelevant to carry on both the teaching and research functions. Similarly,the teaching loads of the staff should be such as to enable them to takeactive interest in research. Technical assistance to the Morogoro Facultywould be useful for at least 10-15 years, and individuial arrangements toobtain personnel should preferably be for periods of five years or more.Other academic bodies in University College such as the Economic ResearchBureau could be extremely useful in carrying out research which will aidthe planning and implementation of agricultural development. The missiongathered the impression that there was some reluctance in some of the agenciesof the Government to use the staff of the Bureau.
183. The Tanganyika Wattle Company in Njombe is carrying out researchon various crops, including wheat and hybrid maize. Since the Wattle Com-pany's research is relevant for agricultural development of the SouthernHighlands in general and the Njombe District in particular, Government shouldconsider negotiating a modest research contract with the Wattle Company fora period of about five years to carry out applied research on hybrid maizeand wheat.
D. Small Scale Farming
184. Small scale farming is receiving major emphasis in the Second Plan.The following discussion focuses on agricultural extension, small scaleirrigation, mechanization, and rural water supplies. Since a recommendedproduction campaign for cotton, one of the two most important smallholdercrops has already been outlined, this item is not included in the discussionbelow.
Agricultural Extension
185. The crop and livestock and extension Drograms are the maJorvehicle for assisting small scale farmers. The crop and livestock exten-sion service is composed of 4658 staff.
186. The distribution of extension staff by resion weiQhtpd acrordirngto the training and experience of the various levels of staff, is shown inTable - Statistical Apnendix. There is substantial vAriatinn in tntalextension units from one region to another, from 105 units in Ruvuma to 318in Tabora (see line 3 in Table 4). I/ ThiR variatinn in nnt easily 'xpYAln.edby reference to objective criteria such as human and cattle population, geo-aranhiral Ri7a nr value of rrnn And livnatnrV prnAdii.ton. ennt4iA - pendI-ture on extension personnel should be primarily justified in terms of the
1/ See footnote in Table 4 - Statistical Appendix for the method ofcalculatioF4n of: extension units.o
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value of additional output which they cause, directly or indirectly, to begenerated. Table 4 - Statistical Appendix also provides estimates of thepossible contribution of proposed crop and livestock programs in the SecondPlan to GDP. The itucremental output per extension unit ranges from Sh 23,000in Kigoma (line 9) to over twelve times that amount - Sh 287,000 - in Tabora(line 9). The data have been assembled in this way to provide a first ap-proximate check on the objectivity of the distribution of scarce extensionpersonnel. l/ One may expect the average incremental productivity of extensionstaff to approximate their marginal returns, so that if extension staff weretransferred from low productivity areas such as Kigoma to high productivityregions such as Tabora, the total GDP which their expertise would generatewould increase. At the very least, the analysis suggests that staff inregions which are expected to make such a high contribution to nationalgrowth - e.g. main cotton, tobacco and tea regions - should be protectedagainst transfer of extension workers to other programs or regions. Inthe case of Mtwara Region a major cashew expansion program is receivingonly modest support by extension personnel. While past growth in cashewhas occurred through the spontaneous response of farmers, this does notrule out the potential high productivity of extension work on cashew. Inany case, the right question is whether the marginal extension worker as-signed to cashew nuts in the Second Plan will contribute more to the outputof some other crop. On the other hand, the extension staff have not yetidentified a major profitable commodity to extend to farmers in Kigoma andMorogoro Regions. As a result, priority needs to be assigned to plant breed-ing research and applied research activity in these regions. In the mean-time, some of the extension personnel and funds could be employed more pro-ductively elsewhere. Some proportion of current extension staff might beretained in the low productivity regions, however, ip order to assist re-search staff with farm trials and demonstration phases of the diffusion ofnew technology when it becomes available.
187. Table 4 - Statistical Appendix also indicates that the product-ivities of livestock extension personnel are much lower than in crop exten-sion work - Sh 32,000 compared with Sh 199,000 average. The inference isthat the livestock programs are relatively overstaffed (relative to theircontribution to GDP) and that increased emphasis in training and recruit-ment of new staff should be given to other cadres, especially for cropnrndiirtion programs. AlRo. given the high returns to tea and tobacco pro-grams, the projected rate of expansion of these crops may be increased abovePlanr taroets through the trannafr of Pxtpnflon wnrkprs tn the tpa and tnbarroareas. The Ministerial Planning Unit should incorporate a periodic reviewof Regional and Distrc4t extension persnnel in nrder tn vAln insgihtr onpossible reassignment of personnel to commodities with higher payoffs.
1/ See footnote on page 51.
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188. The wisdom of allocating extension workers according to commodi-ties with high economiC nnvnffn rnthpr thAn on the nresent seemlnalv ad hoc
basis can be illustrated by the hybrid maize program in NJombe District.r4 to 1096 Jo.mbe District was impnrtni-nr nhnaot I,OnO tona of maIzP Dpr
year. The average yield of local maize was about 1/2 bag per acre in thelojlomlue area. 1owever., s4-e loa m-ize w. o yleld,ng 3-1/2 ton 4-/19) hbagper acre in Ismani (near Iringa), most Njombe farmers migrated to Ismaniea…h year to plart enough msize for t1he4r fa41y requ4rements. The Tangan-
yika Wattle Company of Njombe District conducted field trials of the Kitalehybrid in 1966 and 1967, and NDCA made the Kitale hybrid avial to -JDistrict farmers in 1968. In 1968 a total of 975 farmers each planted oneacre of hybrid maize and followed iu.proved agroromic practices such as earlyplanting and the application of 2cwt of diammonium phosphate per acre.
~~ I ~ .r ~~ -- ..L ~13TWfA m
Farmers received Sh 170 oL credit per acre LruI the NDCA. LLe averageyield obtained by the 975 farmers was about 15 bags per acre. At 15 bagsper acre (Sh 22-24 a bag) farmers received hn 545 gross returnLs er acre ofhybrid maize which is highly competitive with pyrethrum. In 1969 a totalof 5511 farmers in the Njombe District each planted one acre of hybr'dmaize under the package program. The number of acres of hybrid maize inNjombe District may rise to 50,000 acres by 1974 if adequate extensionassistance and physical input supplies such as seed, credit, fertilizer andstorage can be made available at the farm level at appropriate times. 'hlybrid
maize is one of the few technological breakthroughs in food crops that hasbeen imported from outside Tanzania. Tne Kitale (Kenya) and ajumbe areas
are both at similar altitudes of 5,000-7,000 feet and the transfer of hybridmaize was greatly facilitated by the local adaptive research of a privatefirm - the Tanganyika Wattle Company - and from the presence of an extremelyable agricultural extension officer who designed the package system. Aiso,hybrid maize is yielding 15 bags per acre largely as a result of a vigorousextension program which emphasizes improved agronomic procedures, earlyplanting and application of fertilizer.
189. In simmary, manpower resources are so limited in the Second P:Lanperiod that it would be unwise to develop commodity campaigns at the vil-lage or district level for food crops unless there is a breakthrough infood crop technology such as in hybrid maize. The deployment of extensionworkers where their productivity is high should be one of the major tasksof the Planning Section of the Ministry.
190. At present there does not appear to be any documented extensionstrategy for implementing the small-scale farming approach in the SecondPlan 1/ with the exception of tea and flue-cured tobacco programs. Exten-sion and farmer training is fragmented at headquarters between the Agricul-ture Division, Production Division, and the Research, Training and Farmers'Education Division. Field visits were made to nine of the seventeen Regions
1/ Working Party 13 "Agricultural and Associated Rural Extension" did notprepare a report to guide Pianr- 4n the pearat40n of the SecndA
Plan.
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in order to gain some impressions of the field operation of extension. Theturnover rate of extension staff is extremely high. Frequently, two-thirdsof the extension staff at the field grade level and above had been in theregion for less than one year. Also, supervision at the district level ispoor. Field assistants were generally handicapped by having to follow na-tional crop priorities based on technical criteria, by a lack of simpleeconomic data on the gross incomes per acre of the major commodities, andthe lack of supporting equipment, such as housing, traneport.
191. Field visits by mission staff members revealed that the functionsof Regional Economic Secretaries were not clearly defined. The generalappraisal is that both the Regional Commissioner and the Regional EconomicSecretary are confused as to the role of the latter. The relatively inex-Derienced Regional Economic Secretaries are not integrated in the regionalagricultural team. Also they may be offering some advice without empiricalfoundation which may lead to counterproductive results. Although theRegional Economic Secretaries may be given more explicit terms of referenceby the Ministrv of Economic Planning. they may be more productive if theywere assigned to one major scheme such as the Elahe Irrigation Scheme, Inter-Regional Cotton Campaign, state farms or perhaps acting as monitors of on-going projects in close cooperation with the Project Appraisal Unit in Dares Salaam.
192. The routine tasks of coordinating vehicles and clerks at theDistrict level do not seem to warrant the skills of a professional agricul-tural or veterinary officer who serves as a Diqtrirt Goordinatnr. Themission recommends that the need for the position of District CoordinatorchouilA hp tho asQh-irt nf nn immTd1aAta nnA thnrouiah revuip Tf tho nnp t-niis abolished then 66 trained extension workers can be released for thecritical sob of supervising Field essistante - the extenaion aget who workswith farmers. If the District Coordinator's position is converted to thatof a District Ch-air..an, then thee chait=,n could Adevote one half ti.. tocoordinating activities and one half time in carrying out professional dutiessuc_Li as worin g. .in t 4.. IA .A+-I PA
t. -- A AP4N. 4. -A vA
t.
0UL45 ao WLAU SUE tAL A.t SC% YES: ** Et Cs _-ALJ fli vJ 0 O!fl%A 5-rsn .
193. The Government is aware of the shortcomings in the extenslionservice, and the need for resolving some of the problems expeditiously.folwever,i there are no quick or reaudy solULt'ons LU LLthZes Jpr.bl.L-.ILn In
this connection, consideration should be given to the following linesof action:
a) appointment of a team of experienced management consultantsto investigate the administration of the Extension AdvisoryService, including headquarters and fieid operations, incen-tives, promotions, communications, posting of personnel,housing, transportation allowances, and the reiationsnipsbetween the Headquarters, Regional and District ExtensionAdministration;
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b) appointment of a highly experienced officer with demonstratedadministrative ability to head all extension work;
c) revision of the format of annual reports of Regional andDistrict Teams from the present procedure of merely pro-viding a description of extension activities to one givingan evaluation of the performance of the extension staff andsuggesting changes in policies and supporting services thatare needed to make extension more productive in the Regionsand Districts;
d) a review of the need for retaining the position of DistrictCoordinator in its present form;
e) appointment of a Standing Inter-Ministerial Committee (Min-istry of Agriculture and Ministry of Regional Administrationand Rural Development) on Farmer Training Centers and DistrictTraining Centers;
f) expediting preparation by the Planning Section of the Ministryof Regional Administration and Rural Development of detailedplans for implementing the Ujamaa village programs. It shouldbe noted, in this connection, that the Farmers' TrainingCenters and the District Training Centers have been consoli-dated into the Rural Development Centers.
E. Mechanization
194. The history of Tanzanian Government policy on mechanization canbe described as a search for the "best" type of mechanization policy withmaior shifts in government policy occurring whenever a new solution wasadvanced by a new group of policy makers or advisors. An analysis ofmechanization opportunities in a country such as Tanzania quickly revealsthat a wide variety of forces - surplus land, seasonal labor peaks, criti-cal shortage of high level manpower, wide variety of crops, soils, andecological zones - rule out any search for the "best" mechanization policy.Mechanization should be broadly defined to include hand tools. and animaland tractor powered equipment. The design of mechanization policies topromote an efficient combination of these three principal types of mechani-zation is essgentially a pragmatic exercise which must be carried out aftera careful review of agricultural production and processing opportunitieswithin major farming systems. However, more needs to be done than design-ing mechanization systems which are financially profitable to the individualproducing unit - state farm, private farm, etc. Planners must also deter-mine whether financially profitable mechanization at the farm level willlead to an increase or a decrease in real national income.
195. The positive or negative contribution of mechanization schemes tonAtfnnAl lnrnme in often not rnnnidered moat of the t4me hv enoinpers and
agriculturalists who promote these schemes. A number of questions mustbe answered to determin. the 4impact of mechn-ization schemes on real ra--
tional income. Firstly, the project may incur additional costs which are
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indirect to the scheme itself. For example, a series of mechanized projectsmay entail expenditures on tractor driver and mechanic training courses.Workshop and fuel supply facilities may have to be installed but may befinanced out of other votes. The cost of senior staff engaged in adminis-tration and planning of such schemes are rarely charged against them. Se-cond, the financial gains deriving from mechanization may be exaggerated,compared to the real net benefit to the economy, due to pricing policies.Several crops which lend themselves to mechanization in Tanzania have aproducer price level enhanced by high levels of protection which are dif-ficult to justify on economic grounds; wheat and rice are examples (para.78). Further, statutory wage rates raise the price of a manual laborerabove the real cost to society of employing him; (this real cost is thevalue of goods and services the laborer would otherwise have producedif he had not been employed on that project - the opportunity cost).With statutory enhancement of wage rates, the financial advantage ofusing machinery to replace manual labor is exaggerated; also the numberof wage earning opportunities is smaller than it would have been. Thisartificial incentive to replace labor with machinery is further enhancedin the private sector by the capital investment allowance. Further, estatemanagers may derive psychic returns from the use of machines; they mayassume that machines are less troublesome than managing a large labor force.Also, some managers assume that modern machinery enhances the professionalstanding of agriculturists. Finally, the use of agricultural, machineryalways entails an increase in foreign exchange expenditures. The machineryitself costs 50-80 percent more than in the country of manufacture and theresultant flow of fuel, spare parts, tires and other inputs required tomaintain operating efficiency adds to foreign exchange requirements.initia11y. too, scarce exoatriate manpower may be employed in managementand training, often paid for partly in foreign exchange. Since foreign ex-chan-e 4s likelv to ber-sme somewhat of a connttralnt on Tanzania's economicdevelopment during the Plan, its use should be economized wherever possible.For these reasons, even a mechanized aaricultu1ral proJect which is Drofitable
at the farm level may actually reduce real national income. A careful ap-praisal of mechanized schemes through the use of benefit/cost analvsis is
essential in order to review many schemes which are financially profitablebut unsound from a national vlewioint.
196. The First Plan devoted major aDttenti-on to mechaniral rultivation
as an integral part of the transformation approach. Two major bulkorders of tractors were made in 1963 and 1965. Most of the tractors
were allocated to co-operatives. The NDCA extended loans on 673 tractors..e repay-went oil tractor loanr, by cooperatives was poor and an estiam ted
Sh 13.5 million of bad debts have been incurred on the bulk tractorord'ers. Si'nce m.ost oAf tbhe Clo=operative Ur.in'ons experier.ced substar.tialoperating losses on their tractor hire operations, the Government per-mitted all Cooperative Unions to return uunwarnted tractors in 1969. The
Government has repaired the tractors that have been returned and they arenow being sold to private farmers, and cooperative societies. The presentstatus of mechanization can be summaried as follows: tractors are mainlyconcentrated in the northern wheat growing areas and in the cotton zone.
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About 300 new tractors were sold to traders and privat:e farmers in thecotton zone in 1969. Animal mechanization is primarily confined to ox-plowing in the cotton zone. The number of ox plow sales increased from8250 in 1967 to 9100 in 1968 and an estimated 12,000 during the firstnine months of 1969. Although some attempts have been made to design oxequipment for weeding, ridging etc., oxen are used almost exclusivelyfor plowing.
197. The Government recognizes that it had stimu:Lated prematuretractor mechanization during the First Plan and has decided to emphasizehand tools and animals rather than tractor powered mechanization duringthe Second Plan. It has also develoned a re-alsti and praomatie annrnoahto animal powered mechanization in the Second Plan. However, substantialattention i0 also devnted in the Seennd Plan to tractnr mehnnAnivAtinn n
state farms. In order to implement the Government's 8well conceived ap-nrnoah there are at iPast four nn hle hbottlenecUk tAt must be overcome.These are the following:
a. preliminary evidence suggests that state farms will be-8A._u.-4 * 4 n4A v.,
4+ , ts rantn -n..
4" _nd - .. 1 eVtS V W U toy 04.S.C V-. &C iv O*.F".tJ&s CtSp.... a W,JJ. UCV
both financially unprofitable at the state farm level andeconomically ur-.proAuct,ive from a r,atior,al poir,; of vie,and will hinder the expansion of employment opportunitiesin agriculture, which i expected to generatie the majorproportion of employment, through self-employment;
b. the dearth of local research and development on animalpowered mechanization. It is important to tap the impres-sive research and development results on animal poweredequipment in ohner countries, particuiarly in India. TneMinistry has already 'mported and tested some ox-drawnequipment from Senegal.
c. the lack of certral direction and adequately trainedagricultural engineers for carrying out an extensionprograwi on annmial powered equipment; and
d. the lack of clear direction on wno will manufacture andsell hand tools and animal powered equipment.
These points are discussed below.
Mechanized State Farms
198. Although sufficient data are not available for detailedanalysis, preliminary evidence suggests that some of the state farms - likevillage settlements - will be overcapitalized and that the farm machinerybeing purchased for some farms such as the wheat state farms will not beappropriate for local soil conditions. For these reasons there is an urgentneed for an experienced agricultural engineer to review all present and pro-posed farm machinery plans for these farms and to place high priority on
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securing minimum tillage equipment 1/ for pilot trials on wheat statefarms. If the minimum tillage equipment proves successful on Dilottrials, then planting can be speeded up, soil erosion will probably de-crease and the costs of land Drenaration substAntially reduieed. nwoever,minimum tillage is just one example of the type of field investigationthat needs to be carried out on state farms. Gnntinuous trial anderror field level investigations of tractor equipment will be neededon state farms throuahout the Second Plan.
RPpparch nnd flvelonnmnt For All Tvnes of Mpehaniral Fn,,inmpnt
199. Rpnpnrrh and development on farm mechnniatinn ha been erriedon by the Tanganyika Agricultural Machinery Testing Unit (TAMTV) whichwas established in, 1959 at Tenguru Research Station, near Arusha nndthen transferred in late 1967 to a temporary location at the formerTanganylka Packers Ltd., Arusha. The ter-a, of reference for TAMTUU u-til1968 were to test machinery manufactured outside of Tanzania and toadGI a p t thUi s WOS clb. 4- n e fo0 r lo .c an 1 use. Ir. 1968 TA. shi4ftedA 4ita researchfocus from tractor to animal powered equipment. However, its operationsare presently sev-erely n-Fd b-y an lo o se.ioz
staff and lack of a decision on a permanent site. It is not entirelyclear whether th.e staff of TAW.U sU-old focus on research only or also00 onthe manufacture of animal powered equipment such as ox-carts, donkey carts,etc. T±YITU urgently requires severalexpeience agcultural uLieers,and economist and a rural sociologist. Moreover, the feasibility of trans-Lerring T14W1VJ oL LLth Facu.Lty of £6i.cLtuJ.LULe, M1rLU6Lo sLLUU.LU Ub explrULeU.
Alternatively, it could be shifted to Malya, and closely linked to theWtStLtetlL 50CI Attte[:1 bUILt UNX.LL±ULU.
Extension
200. hne Organization of extension f'or carrying out the mechan'izationprograms in the Second Plan should be reviewed. It seems desirable totransfer the responsibDiity for ox-training centers and the promotion ofox equipment from the Production Division to the Agriculture Division.If this organizational pattern were adopted, then the responsibilityfor field testing of tractor equipment on state farms could remain withinthe Production Division. However, TAMTU seems to be the logical organi-zation to carry out basic research and development on all mechanicalequipment, including tractor mechanized equipment.
1/ There are many meanings to minimum tillage. The depth of minimumtillage cultivation is usually 2-4 inches through the use of tinedimplements. Minimum tillage achieves a stirring or undercutting effectwhile leaving a protective mulch of trash and dead weeds on the surface.On the other hand, conventional cultivation is carried out at a depthof 6-9" by the use of disc or moldboard plows. See P. Northwood,"Wheat Growing in Tanzania", 1969 (draft paper).
Manufacture of Hand Tools and Animal Powered Equipment
201. It is recommended that TAMTU restrict its activities to researchand development of hand tools, animal powered equipment and tractor equip-ment while local blacksmiths, Ubongo Industrial Estate, Ujamaa villages,etc. be encouraged to manufacture donkey carts, and hand tools such ashand rakes, etc.
Summary
a. The emphasis on animal powered mechanization in theSecond Plan is sound. However, the mechanized statefarms show strong indications that they will reducelabor requirements rather than expanding employmentopportunities.
b. TAMTU's terms of reference should be restricted toresearch and development of a full range of mechanicalequipment, including simple hand tools, animal poweredequipment, household labor-saving innovatioms, smalltractors and associated equipment. The manufacture ofox equipment should be undertaken by Ujamaa villages,local blacksmiths, etc.
c. A study should be undertaken to determine the pros andcons of associating TAMTU with the Faculty of Agriculture,Morogoro.
d. Responsibility for demonstrations of ox powered equipmentthrough the field extension staff should be transferredfrom the Production Division to the Agriculture Division.
e. Pre-investment study of a full range of equipment in theSouthern Cotton Zone should be explored.
f. Technical assistance should be secured to support a wideranQae of activities; ineludina re8earrh and devlonnmentat TAMTU, field demonstration of ox equipment, and theflold t-aqt-ing of marchinorv on 8ntAt farms.
202. Si1re the nnpoff nn resa.nrrh amd develnompmnt on animnAl-pweredequipment is likely to come towards the end of the Second Plan and in theTird Plan, continuity, of researck.h and development effort on animal poweredequipment should be maintained rather than shifting from animal powermechaniza,tion to,. a new mechan.ization strate-, and a ne. s-portir.gresearch approach within a few years.
F. Smallholder Irrigation
203. Over the fifteen year period 1955-1969, a number of attemptshave been mde to develop viable smoallholder irr4gation schemes. However,most of these schemes have failed for numerous reasons, including inade-quate plannin..g, poor m--o - n .-A the- 1-..o p- .-f4itab4li4t f--- the
standpoint of the individual farmer. Also, research on all phases ofirrigation - plant breeding, fertilizer trials, engineering, etc. - hasbeen underplayed relative to the resources that have been directed toextenrsion and pilot de.uorstrations.
20'4. Lne Secondu Plan places a moduest eipi'las'Ls on smallholuer 'LrriL
gation. However, the responsibility for smallholder irrigation is locatedin the Production DivLsLon. S'nrce WD&ID was not transferred from theMinistry of Lands, Settlement and Water Development to the Ministry untilMarch 1969, adequate time was not available to develop an integrated ap-proach to irrigation in the Second Plan.
205. The proposed pattern of smallholder irrigation in the SecondPlan is as follows: TIhie roduCtioLn-1 DiVL8OnU PIoUp U LU UpendU hLI 4.0 mil-
lion to train 40 field staff who will advise farmers on simple and cheapmethods of irrigation. wD&ID is planning to spend Sn 3 million develop-ing one satellite Ujamaa village irrigation system for each region. Also,WDblD is carrying out a numDer of surveys and investigations for irriga-tion projects in the Second Plan.
206. Since land is not an important constraint on the expansion ofagricultural output in Tanzania and since there is a dearth of trainedgovernment irrigation staff (and token research on smallholder irrigation),the scope for smallholder irrigation in Tanzania appears to be quitelimited at present. In the light of these problems it is recommendedthat consideration should be given to transferring responsibility forsmallholder irrigation development from the Production Division andWD&ID to the Agriculture, Food and Advisory Services Division. It thetransfer is achieved, then an experienced irrigation specialist shouldbe appointed as head of the Irrigation Section in the Agriculture Division.Clear terms of reference should be given to the Agriculture Division towork with the field extension staff in developing smallholder irrigationschemes, with attention being given to Ujamaa village irrigation schemeswhere technically and economically feasible.
207. Research and development requirements for smallholder irrigationshould be reviewed. It appears that the Ifakara Research Station ispursuing research on a capital intensive farming system which is notsuitable to the needs of surrounding small farmers. Since rice appearsto be a crop of fairly good potential for small-scale irrigation, researchat Ifakara should be directed to small scale farming systems. At present,Ifakara does not have a high yielding rice variety that will respondto fertilizer and water. For these reasons a balanced research programat Ifakara should also focus on plant breeding and agronomic research
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on rice and cieveloping profitable cropping systems for small farmers.Research and development at TAMTU should be strengthened through theaddition of an experienced engineer who can design anci test pumps andirrigation equipment for smallholder conditions.
208. Since the world price of rice is expected to decline by 20-23percent in the next five years, no major expansion of rice on irrigatedland should be contemplated until a careful economic analysis has beencompleted (para. 90).
G. Rural Water Supply
209. The Government of Tanzania has assigned a hLgh priority to theprovision of adequate water to rural areas both for economic and socialreasons. Th:Ls priority is reflected in the Ministry of Agriculture' s1969/70 Development Budget Estimates where 29 percent of the totaldevelopment expenditures are earmarked for rural water development,exceeding the projected outlays on any other type of development expendi-ture bv the Ministrv.
210. The rural water suDplV scheme is operated by the Water Develop-ment and Irrigation Division (WD&ID) of the Ministry. WD&ID is one ofthe six technical divisions in the Ministry of Agriculture; it operatesa National Water Development program. The main representative of WD&IDat the reginnAl level in the regional water engineer. The RegionalDevelopment Committee, of which the regional water engineer is a member,haS primAry responsihilitv for determinina regional water priorities.
211. WD&ID uises aa widea varietv nf techniques to upnlv water torural areas ranging from large schemes with pumps supplying water toonre or several villa,as and several thousand popnnle tn amnl1 hand-duig
wells which may aerve only several households. Piped gravity schemesare generallvy used i n the mountalnous arean while storage nrole5ts
utilizing bore holes, dams or streams are used in the plains.
212. WD&ID criteria which were used to develop rural water schemesin the First Plan i.nclded a ceilin. 4 n-f Sh 200 capital cost per rnorvan
and a water supply system of sufficient capacity to provide 10 gallonsof water per person per day.
913 Only. fa-.-nnIn Andn ata nar e avaa ble othe im-acit of i--ov-md
water on production and consumption aspects of rural life in East Africa.Several recent studies reveal the following In a stuady of V..ral water
problems in nine areas of Tanzania it was reported that water consumptionvaried from 0.9 to 3-3 gallona p.r per.son. pa day. Jste: w A
from 1/2 mile to 6 miles and 3 to 7 hours were spent walking per day tosupp'ly water fLor orne rural family.11l In a- village stud ln nAdallStlppLy W~~L LL UL1 LULJ. L01LLJy.A.I~LI VLL.6JS- UL.UUY A.LLA &%=IYU %A&1..Ly
1/ Dennis Warner-"Rural Water Supply & Development" A Comparison of NineVillages in Tanzania, Economic Research Bureau Paper 67.17.
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per capita water consumption increased from 1.65 to 14.7 gallons afterA rutrAl wAtar runolv avatem waan inatalled in the villaae.1/ Plannprra
must assess the costs and benefits of improved water. Although it iseasy to assess the rAsts there have bpen fPw atudie8 of the henefit8 Ofimproved water. It is often hypothesized that one of the major benefitsof im4proved water in a reAiio-nn nf ndtilt illn.es nnan hen.ce lncreased
availability of adult labor for farming activities - especially duringplanting, weedin,o annd hnvriant4no n.ryrt%Aa 14waueuve the h,,neth"040 that
piped water will lead to increases in general health conditions among adultsis not su-abstantiated b, an.n kn.own st..My in East Africa. However, rural waterschemes do release women and children from carrying water and theoreticallyincreases the time they h.ave available for farm work. In su--ar", althoughthere is little research on assessing the economic benefits of improvedrural water, there is4 14ttle reasorn to assu,m-e that improved -vate ia a highlyproductive investment in rural areas. It appears that much of the benefitofL i-taprovedd water wmAust bDe assigr.ed to consu4mption ber.efilts.
214. thDring the First PDlan a r average of 6,000 AAdit4o,-l
people 2/ per year were supplied with water at an average cost of approx-imately Sh 1.40 per person. The Swedish riternational v lopment utho-rity (SIDA) assisted in financing 80 percent of 187 rural water schemesdurir,g the last he easo h Firs Plan 1 By tb.e e-d -- f 1968,%AAA UL J.a L ~ .4k&= V ~ M&O Wt t.&W KA&l S .4&. " L4-- =LA&u W& J7UU,
according to WD&ID estimates, 11 percent of the rural population wereLreCeivin "a VeqUa-9Ue W>ater. *L MW--VCL , M;AO0%: WL-=L Lo C'U JMUA.UUUU2
term. It frequently refers to the number of gallons of water per personper duay without refLerer.ce to thQ qualiUty of water. Ar-j dicus'r,o~J~L uy W.LLLUUL ~L~L~LL. &.U.L4 Ut WA.L * -AAy ULtDLscussio oL I
"adequate" water must include both the quantitative and qualitativee'LemerLts. Until 196J the Cen.tral Gover.-mUe pa'dU 7J5 percernt ofL the
capital costs of WD&ID rural water schemes and local communitiespaid 225 percent of the capital costs. However, the 25 percent contri-bution from local communities was waived when it was observed the moreprosperous rural areas were receiving proportionally more benerit fromWD&ID schemes than some of the "poorer geographical areas." From 1965the Central Government has paid 100 percent of the capitai costs ofWD&ID rural water schemes. Also, the Central Government has been unableto collect the 1 percent maintenance charge or wubiu water scnemes. As
a result, maintenance charges (of around 3 percent rather than 1 percent)for all rural water schemes will be paid by the Central Governmenteffective January 1970.
1/ I. D. Carruthers-"Rural Water Development in Kenya," RDR Paper 86,Dept. of Rural Economy, Maketere University College, 1969.
2/ The Second Plan incorrectly states that 60,000 additional familiesper year received water each year during the First Plan. See SecondPlan, Vol I, p. 40.
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215. nTe Second Five Year Plan envisages raising substantiallythle number ofL beneficiaries fLrom ruraL water suppJLy sebmes. Sincethe Plan has been published a "substantial increase" has been inter-preted to mean that 250,00U0U anuitional people per annum will receive
water in the 1969-74 period. However, the Second Plan earmarks Sh 100 1/m'llion Lor rural water supply development and rural water surveys anainvestigations. If the water schemes in the Second Plan are developedat an average capital cost of Sh 150 per person, the rotai or Shn i0million would provide water for 133,000 people a year as compared withthe target of 250,000. It is reported that only Sh 100 million wereearmarked for rural water development in the Second Plan because it wasassumed that a substantial share of the development costs could befinanced through self-help projects whereby village people donate laborto schemes being constructed in their villages. However, only tokenamounts of labor have been forthcoming and the supply of labor has todate been unreliable on the Uelf-help projects. Moreover, the totalunskilled labor costs are now estimated to be only 6-8 percent of schemescosting more than Sh 50,000. Since the self-help contribution inpractice appears to be of minor significance, the target of 250,000additional people per year cannot be reached unless the developmentbudget is substantially increased beyond the Sh 100 million earmarkedin the Plan for the 1969-74 period. The Treasury has allocated Sh 37.05million (rather than 15 million as proposed in the Second Plan), forrural water development in the 1969-70 development budget estimates.2/If the target: of 250,000 additional people per year is to be reached,an outlay of Sh 187.5 million will likely be required rather thanSh 100 million as spelled out in the Second Plan. The amount of theSIDA assistance for water development in 1969-70 and 1970-74 is uncertainat this time.
216. It is important that the recently recruited economist shouldproceed, as soon as possible, with the work of comparing the costs ofalternative methods of supplying water in rural areas. For example, it isreported that: shallow boreholes and hand pumps can supply water in somegeological formations at less than one-half the cost of piped water systems.If lower cost methods of supplying rural water are promising in some geolog-ical formations, then the deep borehole piped water technique should be re-considered. However, since engineers can supply data or alternative costsof various approaches, the primary task of an economist would be to assessthe benefits of rural water schemes. Since self-help has met with mixedreaction in rural areas and the productive benefits of improved water maybe of minor significance, one must question the wisdom of allocating 29percent of the agricultural development budget to improved water in 1969/70.
1/ There appears to be some doubt concerning the exact figure.
2/ The breakdown of the Sh 37.05 million is as follows: Sh 33.05 - ruralwater supply schemes and Sh 4 million - surveys and investigations forrural water supply schemes.
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If rural water continues to receive high priority in the Second Plan moreattention should be given to matching expansion in rural water with theexpansion of high priority commodities such as tobacco, cotton, tea, etc.,which are crops with high payoffs.
217. Since self-help has met with ambivalence, a rural socioloRistfrom the ERB should be requested to examine the bottlenecks in the self-help schemes to date and to make recommendations to Ruide planners onhow the self-help component can be increased.
H. Appraisal of Large-Scale Farming
218. The promotion of large-scale farming plays a central role inthe Second Plan. Three main types of larae-scale farming systems are:
(a) State farms and ranches under the administration of theProduction Division;
(b) Large-scale state farms and ranches operated by para-statals such as NAFCO. TSC, etc.; and
(c) Large-scale irrigation systams onerated by WD&ID.
An nnalvsis of each of these three natterns of large-scale farmings fnl-lows.
219. The number and types of state farms and ranches to be administeredhv thp Prnditxtinn vih1Qinn Anti nQrasrttA,q1ca {in tnrPrtain- Arlu4statmnta inthe size and number of projects are likely to be made as more technical andecor.omic data are acquired. However, the followiTg numher and types ofstate farms and ranches are proposed in the Second Plan..
Table 23: STATE FARM PROGRAM IN THE SECOND PLAN, 1969-74
Numbers Acreage
TJU ea' 10}0, 0
Rice 4 13,000V.ne 1 41, OOO
*Dairy 2 --
'Ranc'ies 9_Oilseeds 1 4,000Coconuts 2 6,000
29 124,000
* Acreage not yet delineated.
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220. The terms of reference for state farms and ranches operated bytheM ProCduCtior. DiVi.Lton are to:
(b) train extension agents in the operation of large-scale pro-UucLlton uriLts;
(c) serve as a testing ceater for new crops, livectock; and
(d) provide transport, harvesting equipment and services toUjamaa villages in the surrounding areas.
Since there are multiple objectives of state farms operated by the Produc-tion Division, an evaluation of the performance of the state farms must gobeyond commercial criteria and attempt to assess how non-production objec--tives are being met.
221. The terms of reference for state farms and ranches operated byparastatals are to establish efficient units using strict commercial cri-teria.
Management of State Farms
222. The Production Division requested 191 new posts to be establishedin 1969-70 to staff the state farms. Sixty-eight of the 191 posts wereapproved. The breakdown of posts requested and approved is shown in AppendixTable 6. The state farms will be managed by Production (Agricultural)Officers I, II or III. The qualifications for Production Officers GradeIII is B.Sc (Agriculture), Economics Degree or its equivalent; no stipula-tion has been made concerning experience.
223. Since state farms are highly capitalized and will require a laborforce of several hundred people, it is imperative that managers of statefarms have substantial (10 -15) years experience in managing the larger farmssuch as the 5,000-30,000 acre farms and ranches. It appears that overseasrecruitment will be necessary to recruit experienced managers for the larg-er schemes. Local production officers without experience can only serveas understudies to the experienced managers, at least in the initial years.
Wheat State Farms
224. Since wheat state farms represent the largest type of state farmsin numbers, the proposed operation of wheat farms will be reviewed in somedetail. Soft wheat ie a high priority crop in the Second Plan, and outputis projected to grow at an average annual rate of 16 percent in order toachieve self-sufficiency by 1974. There have been some modifications tothe list of wheat state farms since the Plan was published, and the currentlist is as follows:
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Wheat State Farm, Sumbawanga.
This wheat state farm is designed to produce wheat and provide a basefor wheat extension, seed multiplication and distribution. It islocated at Mkundi, 10 miles north of Sumbawanga. One thousand acresare being cleared for plantinR in early 1970. A total of 5.000 acresare anticipated at full development.
Wheat State Farm, Ilembo.
Proposed to be started in 1970-71.
Wheat State Farm, Syutilya.
Proposed to be started in 1971/72 - 1973/74.
Proposed State Farm, Ilindi.
This project was originally scheduled for Njombe District but wasshifted to Ilindi on account of insufficient land in a large blockin Niombe District. The Ilindi state farm is 46 miles southwest ofMbeya township. The original plan was to elear and nlnnt 1,000 acrein 1969/70 and expand annually until 5,000 acres are planted at theen.d of the Plan period. hnwpvpr; finencinl restretiinns havie limited
the 1969/70 plan of operation to 500 acres of wheat at Ilindi.
Wheat State Farm, Mara.
Five hundred acres will be planted in 1970/71. The total acreagewill be 1,000 acres. H ever, t}:4 state far ma y be vrd wi-ththe State Dairy Farm project, Mara.
Wheat State Farm, Milundikwa, Sumbawanga District.
This is a former village settlement which was taken over by theMinistry of ir. 199.a A t.otl o- I ,70) acres of wheat wereI1i n]LLry OfAW-ricu±lturLn .L7VL 1 LI%J%LC&. %OU&IL WLLLWL
harvested in 1969 at an average yield of only about 3 bags (200 lbs) peracre, resulting mainly fron a dry year.
Rwamkoma State Farm, Musoma District, t-Mra RegiLn.
Rwankoma is a rormer village settlement. In 1968O/6 the short rainwheat crop yielded 1.5 bags per acre and the long rain crop yielded2.5 bags per acre. It has been recommended by the Ministry or Agri-culture experts that only 400 acres of wheat be grown in 1969/70 ona pilot basis.
Basotu Wheat Scheme - NAFCO Managed
225. The largest single government wheat scheme is the Basotu Schemein Arusha Region. The Basotu farm lies 188 miles south of Arusha at analtitude of 5,500 to 5,800 feet. The Basotu wheat scheme was operated by
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the M1ni1strv of Agricuiltiure as s a wheat nead productionv farm until July 1,1969, at which time NAFCO assumed responsibility for the scheme. In 1969ra totAl of 5,000 Arres were paanted to wheat; rhe average yield obtainedwas 1/2 bag per acre. The low yield was caused by a dry year. It is pro-posed to "lant 10 000 to, 15,000 acres 4n who !n 1'6O,170 ant PvPntulL;R1
reach the target of 30,000 acres of wtxeat. If expansion of acreage on thisSc,a1l. hato a be.I-v4 ahien iwred A %,vrn 1 t tti lraa a it'at-nt-infi 1 trPA% in
staff.
Other Proposed State Farms
226. In addition to wheat six other types of stata farms are planned.geeral reviea w of U.thL-e status ofL7 pro-Jec t preparation . ft the nSl.-whaat -_n.,te
farms reveals that there are also major shortcomings in the planning for**000 far-LL-. FEJor example, theC vlgom.a 041 Palm St-te Pa,cIa l lfor a-a ex-
penditure of about Sh 5 million to clear and operate a 5000 acre oil palmstate farm 'i n r'. lgOm.a R1.Peggi0n. Satellite wL s WiLJ.l be encouraL& ed
The proposed state farm is 23 miles northeast of Kigoma in the LuicheForest Reserve where up to u,V I aL O fWI laIdu -are available. Local var-
ieties of palms are now being grown in the area. In 1968 an estimated F195tors of palmu kernels an,d 750 torns of palm oil were produced and soldlocally by smallholders. The technical data for the proposed oil palmstate farm 'La as follows: I. 1963 an extensive stuUdy Of Oil pa'l IL1
Tanzania was made by Mr. Olivin of the Research Institute of Oils and OilProducts. Mrr. Olivin stated in nis report that oil palms require at Le-t59'; of rainfall per year for commercial production. According to recordsmaintained by the Kigoma Climatological Station, Kigoma nad an average of37.81" of rainfall per annum over the past 24 years. In addition Kigomahas six successive "dry" months (less than 3.9" of rainfall per month) per
annum which adds another constraint on obtaining high yields. The Minis-
try's Plan of Operation for the Kigoma Oil Palm State Farm dated August 27,
1969, notes that the "Kigoma Climatological Station has recorded an aver-
age of 37.81"1 (of rainfall) per annum (24 year average). Tnis is consid-ered to be iasufficient for economic oil palm growing but nobody has deter-mined the amount of seepage water wnich is known to benefit oil palms inthis Luiche river basin." The other technical point which is important isthe use of local varieties versus hybrid palms on the state farm. Tne planof operation calls for using local varieties. However, hybrid palms whichwere developed in the Congo in the late 1930's are now widely used in theCongo, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Malaysia and Indonesia. Hybrid palms willgenerally give 300-600 percent higher yields than local palms. It isrecommended that steps be taken to acquire hybrid palm seeds for germinna-tion. There is no provision in the plan of operation for an oil palm pro-cessing plant of sufficient capacity to process palm bunches from a 5000acre plantation. The economics of the proposed oil palm state farm shouldbe analyzed in close consultation with technical experts who can offersome judgments on likely yields with local and hybrid palms in an area or37" of rainfall. Until this analysis is completed, it is recommended thatland clearing on this project be deferred.
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227. Another tvne of state farm which is beina Dut into oneration inan oil seed state farm which will be located at Nachingwea, Mtawara Region.l/A comnanion nroiect at the same site is "Production and Distribution ofSeeds" which is in fact a soyabean state farm at Nachingwea. The twinnroisctn will be carried out on several farms formerly onerated by theTanganyika Agricultural Corporation.
228. Two thousand acres of soyabeans will be brought into cultivationand the farms will be fully mechanized from the start. Eventually 4000acres of soyabeans will be grown at any one time while maize, simsim, andrattle grazing will orriinv the balance of the land.
229. The plan of work for the anvRheAn state fn8m. notes that t-he.
proJect "does not require a feasibility study" and "does not depend onthe employ ^mente of consultant" ITn li1ht nf t'ha deqire tp wtFh a"fully mechanized operation", it would be advisable to undertake a thoroughfenasibility study before proceeding weith thascea 8t-ate farm-n
cneAral Annrnaial nf State Parmt
230 Since the state fa-rm were nly o lannched a f - months ago, itis, of course, premature to speculate on their likely performance. Never-th*eless, o the kn4 basis of exa. 4 ng- 4 ^ nf the AroJecat statn@airsS uiscusslons
with Production Division officials and a few field visits, some preliminaryco.i.ents car, be ad varced a, t this et--ag. Th.e first 4s that- some of theproblems that were encountered in the Groundnut Scheme in the 1950's andin t-hIe V4-llae S-tlement Schemeasduri. A th4 e Fi-rst Plan -are- - a or --
are likely to appear in the state farms unless corrective action is taken.lor example, a careful rev-ew of tbe files of all proposed wheat s fas
jUL ~ 0 L~JL A. S~XW S. t~&AO &S.O '.S J.A YL1jJJa~ WLS~nu OLtCLL. A4L0LW
and a visit to the Milundikwa State Farm reveals that the farms are beingrushledU 'Lnto product'Lon b'Uefore even elemnt analysis UhaD L bee I __let
of the technical, managerial and economic aspects of state farms. SinceadUequate teC LnL.ca.L dlata hIave not bUeen coL[lected on thle fasL .L pJ gLs -
e.g. Milundikwa, Basotu, etc. - it is impossible to give guidelines to thestate farm maragers on appropr'ate tLllage techniques to use Lor wheat anufertilizer recommendations. The present managers of state farms are poorlytrainea to handle tne complexity oLf startiLng state farms - especially in
the light of the inadequacy of technical data. In addition, elementaryeconomic analysis of the highly capitalized method or production has notbeen completed on any of the state farms. The combination of inadequatetechnical data, inexperienced managers and the highly capitalized techniquesof production leads to the preliminary conclusion that many of the statefarms are likely to duplicate the experience of the Viliiage Settiement Schemesduring Tanzania's First Plan.
1/ On Page 30 of Volume II of the Second Plan it is reported that thelocation of the Project is Kigoma. The correct location is Nachingwea,Mtawara Region.
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211. It i -l reommcn.ded tlh.at a Jol.,ut scht.lc..--' 4 C w rtx-should be established to determine how losses can be minimized on the fazmsalreadly in operation an" to carry out the~- nees. -eh,ic .Aieo..
analysis of the proposed state farms. The working party should concentrateon fLarw 'r. operatLorn a,u mLae recoumUeUdatio.s or; how to minim ize 'Loss.Immediate steps should be taken to secure technical assistance to managetithe Large iarms, and to ne'lp staff' a mobile marnagemen:it team fuor th-ie S,mallerfarms. Minimum tillage techniques should be secured for trialu on the Basotuand Sum-bawanga wheat scheanes. it is ii,uortant to note tlat the -'fujJ eet A ,p_praisal Unit in the Ministry of Economic Planning is starting to undertakeproject appraisal analysis of the major types of State farsW. However, J.t
should be pointed out that considerable technical expertise will have to bebrought to bear on state farm problems. For these reasons an active woK';inLgrelationship should be established between the Project Appraisal Unit in theMinistry of Economic Planning and the Planning Section of the Ministryr ox'Agriculture and relevant technical personnel in other divisions in the Minis-try of Agriculture.
.. Large-Scale Gover.nment _rrigation Schemes
232. Large-scale government irrigation schemes consist of the Kahescheme near Moshi, the Mbarali rice scheme on the Usan.gu Plains, theKilombero sugar estate in the Kilombero Valley, and the Ruvu Rice StateFarm.
233. Two schemes - Kahe and Mbarali - are under the direction ofWD&ID. In early 1969 ownership of the Kilombero Sugar Estate was acquiredby the Government; it is currently being managed by an, external. managementgroup. 1/ NAFCO is tentatively planning to invest Sh 94 million in irri-gated sugar production at the Kagera and Mtibwa estates during the SecondPlan, in association with the Madhwani Group and Kagera Sugar Estates.
234. The Kahe irrigation scheme which lies southeast of Moshi waspartially developed during the last two years of the First Plan followingUNDP investigations of the technical and economic bases for irrigationdevelopment in the Pangani and Wami River Basins. On the basis of their1964-67 investigations the UNDP recommended that a 9,000 to 11,000 acreirrigation scheme be established at Kahe. As part of its overall investi-gations the UNDP conducted agronomic trials through 1967 and concludedthat no firm recommendations for an intensive cropping system could yetbe made.2/ The report further noted that lucerne yields were "disappoint-ing" and that "the suitability of lucerne to the area and its yield poten-tial require further investigation because problems of salinity, alkalin--ity, and concretionary layers may limit the potential of this crop." How-ever, the UNDP reported that kenaf yields were around 3/4 ton per acre
1/ A Dutch team is managing the Kilombero Sugar Estate under a Fiveyear contract which expires in May 1973.
2/ UNDP-FAO, Survey and Plans for Irrigation Development in thePang a*nand Wami River Basins, United Republic of Tanzania, Rome 1969.
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and that kenaf warranted further investigation in the light of supplyinga local bag factory at Moshi.l/ WD&ID staff took over the UNDP pilotagronomic trials and continued trials in 1968 and 1969. Concurrentlyv theengineering aspects of the 10,000 acre scheme were undertaken, includingthe construction of a dam and canals. The total capital cost of the Kahescheme to date is approximately Sh 20 million.2/ The first 2,500 acreblock of the 10.000 acre Kahe is to be operated as an enterprise of NDC.However, since the UNDP feasibility study ended in 1967 without establishingfirm agronomic and economic recommendations, and since WD&ID agronomic re-search over the past two years has been intermittent and inconclusive, the2.500 acre state farm should be regarded as a large pilot oneration. Sinrethere are plans to expand the present dairy herd at Kahe, the experimentson lucerne are of high priority. Also, kenaf experiments are necessary 4norder to determine the technical and economic potential of large-scale kenaforoduction. Although it is now intended that "ahe should be develnnped a alarge-scale project, it would be necessary to assess alternatives to thefollowino anpects within a benefit-cost analytical franTpwnrk if it in 1aterdecided to develop smallholder irrigation or promote other crops: (i) sizeof farm: (ii) cropping svstems: (iii) canital and recurrent char^e tn hbpaid by settlers; (iv) pros and cons of animal or tractor mechanization forsmallholders, and (v? organizational and mannnwpr reuiiira mnts for assistln-small farmers on the 7,,500 acres.
235. In summary the engineering progress on the Kahe scheme is runningsubs~tantial ly aheard of the ri'ed aaronnic and ao,-e -co=oJ C research.Priority should be given to bringing in an experienced team to guide theimpl em.enttaton of the schemeve t*he next 2-3 years.
236. The Mbarall Trr4gat4on state farm, UsOngu Plair, was developedduring the First Plan. Approximately 3,900 acres were under rice cultiva-tion in 196Q but some of the land in th.is blok requires levellir.g. Th.eland area under irrigation may possibly be expanded to 5,000 acres. Main-lar.d China ls p-O-JA 4ng technical assstanca for th"e Mb-aral-i sch-eme.
237. she Y" lorbero Ougar Estate 4a a hi hl -- ch n e sch me -w'c* ~ L. Z.L..lu,Uu JL
5A ~ I.C~ .. L &&B.,4LL.7Ly ~ LaAL~ UI941Wt_-lt WL1.Lr-U
has experienced technical problems and financial difficulties for a numberof years. Although there are about 20,000 acres in the iloumbero scheme,only about 7,000 acres are suitable for economical sugar production. In1969a Rtotal of 7,000 acres were harvested. The average yield was 33 tons
of cane per acre and the average sugar content was 10.59 percent. Averagecane vy e'U's on the Arus[a I'Ll i± EsLtae are usua'lly between 50-60 tons.Approximately 35 expatriates are engaged in managing various aspects of
1/ An integrated study has not been made of the benefits and costs ofinvestment in the irrigation scheme. bag factory and associated infra-structure in order to replace jute imports. This is a high prioritystudy.
2/ This figure cannot be verified. However- it could wall wall ha a,hbtann-tially higher than Sh 20 million.
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the production and proceeeing of sugar at `A.iombero. Thlere are a numberof factors which need to be investigated. Among thee. are the relativecost of expanding sugar processing capacity and >sugar production by Small-holders as compared with the development of the Kagera and Mtiwba scheme.Some preliminary thought should be given to transferring the managementof the Kahe and Mbarali schemes from WD&ID to the Production Division orto NAFCO.
238. NAFCO has tentative plans to invest Sh 94 million iu sugar pro-duction at Kagera and Mtiwba estates. There is a need for a thoroughfeasibility study of this scheme before - rather than after - a decisionhas been reached to invest Sh 94 million in this scheme. To date therelative cost of expanding sugar production at different sites in Tanzaniahas been given peripheral attention. The Kagera and Mtiwba schemes mustbe appraised within a national framework.
239. It is recommended that a small applied research team - agricul-tural economist, agronomist, water engineer - be recruited to provide thefull range of technical and economic data needed for planning and imple-menting large-scale irrigation schemes. To date there has not been aneconomist working on large-scale irrigation schemes in the WD&ID. As aresult, preliminary discussions by engineers on the future role of large-scale irrigation have focused on developing one state irrigation farm per
region, developing x acres of irrigated farming per year or bringing xpercent of the land area in Tanzania into irrigated farming. A balancedapplied research team could overcome many of these shortcomings by carry-
ing out a full range of problem-oriented studies, including technical,socio-economic and engineering aspects of large-scale irrigation in orderthat the present schemes can be efficiently executed. This approach shouldreplace current WD&ID planning criteria such as one state irrigated farmper region.
J. The Uiamaa Village Program
240. The Second Plan introduces a number of policy instruments tocheck the urban bias in planning and to emphasize rural development. Thedevelopment of Ujamaa villages 1/ in all regions and Districts is an expli-
cit mechanism for carrying out rural development and achieving rural social-ism. Ujamaa villages consist of "rural economic and social communitieswhere people live together and work together for the good of all." 2/ Inpractice this means that "most of the farming would be done by groups ofpeople who live as a community and work as a community. They would livetogether in a village; they would farm together, market together and under-take the provision of local services and omall local requirements as a
1/ Ujamaa is a Swahili word which conveys the notion of living and working
together on extended family princioles.
2/ Julius Nverere "Socialism & Rural Devaloomant," in Freedom & Socialism:
A Selection of Writings & Speeches, 1965-67, Nairobi: Oxford, 1968
- 72 -
community." However, there is no single pattern of Ujamaa villages. Localself-initiative is called on to develop a type of Ujamaa village compatiblewith local social patterns, farming systems, etc. Although Ulamaa villaaeswere started in the early 1960's without government assistance - e.g. RuvumaDevelopment Association - Government did not assign a high priority toUjamaa village until after the Arusha Declaration. President Nyerare'spolicy paper of September 1967 laid out practical guidelines for the imple-mentation of the Ujamaa village program. l/
241. Since the Ujamaa program is in its early stages, any appraisalof the proaram muAt be restricted to some preliminarv observationq. Also-since the road to rural socialism is viewed as a long journey, the problemsAndi Arh1eempnta of the Uiamna. villages withi=n the Second Plan neriod mtuRtbe viewed as only one Step in the long journey. There are three phases inthaD mnl m.ntat4inn of the Ulmanaa villaae nroaram. Firqt- sa the edulontinnand training of government and TANU leaders in the ideology, purpose andmot-di^A of sat-nali4shing Uinmna vd lsana Sernnnd- is the nrnoesn of tkl4ngthe ideas to the people. Third, is the establishment of Ujamaa villageswith wriTnav emPnhnibe hping pl aced on voluntary action, self-help and
self-reliance. The Ministry of Regional Administration and Rural Develop--t- 4a ls-4.i"A tiae voaisnor&l tA for nra4nnt{ne ell governmnot depa"rt--
ments in promoting the development of Ujamaa villages. All departmentsof governm....en.t are required to as-Icint in the implementatinn of Tinnman pTro-grams. Ujamaa villages are given priority in social services (rural water,sch.ools, ~ etc.), and th.e oeilcs Of trsineda Yover.nmnt peopdl - e g ex.ter.-
Sion advisors. Also Ujamaa villages are given priority in the allocationo,P4 V- - Vv.-A.. All s-tln-nxn vcahaa tf 4m"wlamnt-4n. tha~ IT.4-,.oaof -egiona -Deve-lo-pm-ent_ -.-uds -A three phases of implemer.-tr., the U_j___program are being carried out simultaneously. Seminars have already beenheld ei. 1T4Jamaa v4 1lages to in.form govern.men.t,a TANI .'P fficils of the
key aspects of Ujamaa villages. These seminars have lasted two to three-eeks. Nxe, 4 varius means - umeetln, nlewfpara ru-ri devlop --r-t
workers - are being used to inform rural people about Ujamaa villages.T.e "J aa progra… 4'.I promoted b-y TA. an.d governr?.ent feld staff
and new Ujamaa villages are reported to be springing up in every regionin Tanzania.
^ I n - sT 1 w T-Z *~w. mne uunber I ujaa villages 'La u certain Uecause oL tLL1 wuevariations in the connotation attached to a Ujamaa village. Members of theMission who toured nine of the seventeen regions found that 'Ujamaa villagesincluded groups of people living together and pooling their resources todevelop common social services (scnool or rural water supply), groups orpeople living in a village and pooling some labor and performing one taskin the production process - tobacco nursery - on a cooperative basis, andgroups of people living together and pooling resources to perform a commonharvesting function (wheat harvesting). Estimates of the number of Ujamaavillages now in existence ranges from 200 -600. There appears to be signifi-cant variations in the degree ot responsiveness to Ujamaa in different partsof the country.
_/ Ibid.
- 73 -
If.0 n1 A e-valuat'ort Of 'UJam -^progr.ai mi"t vWei'S, the mer').s oF Ui-amt;6;
against alternative means of achieving aocial, po3.itical and econowicguoals. A major que8t,01o 'Ls w4laether .e UJLiIUIL L ya-.Ja , ro Wa.. willtrs ult si adiversion of human and capital resources from on-going activities - e.g.cotton, tea anad livestock exLension programs - to a new but unproven venl--ture. Although difficult to evaluate, it appears thaL. cpital diversionwill be modest in light of the labor inteinsive naiture or most Uijamaa vililageactivities. The Government has assuumed that the Ujams.a. villages 60 notnecessitate a net increase in the demand for skilled jsersor.:ne!, but woulldcrather permit their more efficient deployment. In practice this is unlikelyto be so. The extent of high level manpower diversion. may be sizeable inthe Second Plan if additional pressure is pla::ed on regional and distr-ictofficials to step up the rate of formation of new Ujamaa villages. Si2ncoone AFO is being assigned per new Ujamaa village in some regions, the creationof 15-20 Ujamaa villages in a regiorn could eassly drain off a sizeable portionof the high level manpower from regUar extenaion activities such as tea, andcotton extension work, parti.cular.v if those pursuing these activities du notjoin Ujamaa villages, and are therefore assignned a lcrwer priority for Govern-ment services.
244. Ujamaa villages seem well suited to some new areas that arebeing Qpened up for settlement and to some crops such as flue-cured tobaccowhich requires orderly planning of tobacco nurseries, curing barns, etc.Also, Ujamaa villages seem to be an excellent means of producing andutilizing simple hand tools, ox-carts, donkey carts, etc. An ox-cart onlyrequires local timber, four days of carpentry labor, plus wheels and bolts.It appears that Ujamaa villages could produce tools, ox-carts and donkey cartsfor their own use and for sale to neighboring villages.
245. The Ministry of Regional Administration and Rural Developmenthas a Planning and Control and Research and Evaluation Sections for Ujamaavillages. These two sections provide the leadership in designing Ujamaavillages for a wide variety of local farming systems, social patterns,etc. These two sections are still being staffed. It remains to be seenwhether the evaluation section will be engaged in operational matters -promotion of Ujamaa villages - or whether they will be able to providethe intellectual input required in designing Ujamaa villages appropriatefor local farming systems and in evaluating the strength and weaknessesof Ujamaa villages. It seems likely that an objective evaluation of Ujamaavillages will not be possible in an executive Ministry which is chargedwith implementation of the Ujamaa program. If the review and evaluationfunction is the responsibility of the executive Ministry - Ministry ofRegional Administration and Rural Development - the Ujamaa program may bedefended for a number of years instead of being frankly and openly reviewedand modified as necessary. There was some evidence in the past that therural population was being coerced to form Uiamaa villages, but steps havebeen taken to prevent regional officials and politicians from using anypressure. It is possible. however, that non-nartiecnation in Ulamaa may bepenalized by withholding needed resources - e.g. Regional Development Furds -
from people wlho can utilize thet effectlvelv.
- 74 -
246I. Ti- orAer t-o develop a capac4lty for ar. objec-4,ve e-valuation, o.&-TV L&4 %& - - &S Uh Ij .LV UVIL U.LU J.
the Ujamaa program, it is recommended that an inter-Ministerial committeebe appo4 ned to review an,d evaluate the UJ samaa program. It is recomendjedthat the Ministry of Economic Planning serve as Secretariat for the inter--U"n0 Ls t e r ial commit tee and memDers ofJ 'UnvAersity. Collbeg6e beU co=optdL wuenrequired.
247. The proposed inter-ministerial committee should review the Ujamaavillage purgramf with specia'l attention to the Lol'Uow ing aspects:
(a) the incentives for farmers to Join UJamaa villlages in highpopulation density areas (Mt. Kilimanjaro area) and in lowpopulation densisty areas (Sumbawanga);
(b) empirical evidence, if any, on tne likely economies ofscale in the (i) provision of social services to Ujamaavillages, (ii) provision of inputs to agriculture on aUjamaa village basis, and (iii) production, harvesting,marketing and processing on a village cooperative basis;
(c) the unit costs of providing social services - water, dis-pensaries, and education - and the possibility of reducingthese in Ujamaa villages of varying sizes, e.g. 50 families,100, 200, 400, etc;
(d) the economic, technical and social advantages of expandingcotton, tea, tobacco, livestock production by Ujamaa villagesas compared with traditional peasant production; and
(e) the supply of adequate high level manpower to prepare villagelevel plans for Ujamaa villages as spelled out in the Plan.
248. Ujamaa villages are not designed solely to expand commodity out-put, although there could be many advantages in organising the production ofa number of commodities on a Ujamaa basis, as has been done successfully inthe case of tobacco. Ujamaa villages have economic, social and politicalobjectives. To evaluate the potential of the Ujamaa program, therefore, itis important that considerations wider than those of economics should bebrought to bear. The Ujamaa village program is in its infancy; it should beregarded as an important experiment extending throughout the Second Plan andfollowed by an objective assessment of the reaction of people concerned, re-sources required to ensure the success of the schemes, and the opportunitycosts of diverting resources where this has happened. The emphasis on self-help and self-reliance is sound. Much can be learned about the nature ofsocial and economic change in rural areas from a careful monitoring of theUjamaa program.
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K. Annual Planning: Implementation, Evaltiation And Rev',sion
249. Most of the agricultural projects listed in the Second Plan aremerely lists of forward capital spending, presumnably vunder the assumptiotnthat capital is the limiting factor in agricultural development. Also croppriorities in the Second Plan were formulated mainly on the basis of tech-nical rather than economic criteria. The Ministry of Agriculture appearsto have conceived its role mainly as An aen-ty for hantilina the imnlTment:a-tion of agricultural projects and programs. Since the Second Plan becameeffectivs in July 1969. the Minintrv haR aeeflred that Itq rnle as an exe(cu-tive Ministry is to proceed with implementing projec.te, which are funded :nthe 1969/70 estimntPe eiven theiugh rneAit of the proecta have not been sub-jected to technical and economic appraisal. For this reason the Ministryof Rrnmnmir Planning shoulmmillteiy o ial pel l r4 a-al 1 nca fn. QCatir,l¶
that the Ministry of Agriculture is accountable for mcore than just spendingthe rurrer.t: arnd development budets for 1096970.
250. Tl.e foc"s of I lemgn.ta0ion of the S-con-d P.1 -- *1-A o-44. 1$t
annual planning which devotes major attention to project appraisal, Manpowerre,uir4 0awns, integra f en G Aan 4 -A.a d.
refining the crop priorities to include economic payoffs at the farmlevel. Ann.ual plannng for agriculture will irnvolve close coordinationbetween the Ministry of Economic Planning and the Ministry of Agriculture.AI dtlou-1h "le malor responsibility for th 1-u,i. ar. - - - - -a io of~ %... IAL W.La JU U.UL IL L or h p'L anning anLLU iMu L=IU6L.@LV&h W~L
agricultural programs should rest with the Ministry of Agriculture, the*w.4nJO t.y JJf Eco .L&1J.&iL - as the overa'Ll. coorU.LLLA1L..LK £rL"L"Ly -=s
several important tasks to play in the implementation of the agriculturalplan. * J.Lle p.iorlty tasks Afor a senior agriLcuLtural. econouist iLu ;..eMinistry of Economic Planning are to:
(a) initiate appraisal of agricultural projects which involvethe agricultural and industrial sectors. Such projectsinclude the proposed kenaf production and processingcomplex and the proponed production and proceuling ofsisal. An inter-ministerial project appraisal team shouldgive hi8h pr'ority to these projects;
(b) initiate steps to ensure the recruitment of hign level ex-patriate manpower in agriculture;
(c) guide Regional Economic Secretaries on how they can facili-tate regional planning with special emphasis on agricultureand also on how they can meet the needs of the centralplanners; and
(d) assist in preparing several pilot regional plans in orderto gain experience for launching a nationwide regionalplanning exercise in the Third Plan.
- 76 -
291= Slnep imple-mentatlnn is usually the weak link in tho anorirulttlvnlplanning process, the Planning Section in the Ministry of Agriculture shouldplav A kev rnle in the nrAnaration of nro4iets in c c n wlnth
appropriate technical staff. The Planning Section should also review on-going prn4erta on a semi-annunl ha9isn a89ist in the nreanrant4on of a
annual agricultural sector plan with considerable attention being devotedto annual revision of nriring andi Tnret4nc npolic-ie and rop priori4ties
and integrating - as it is now being done - the recurrent and manpowerbudgets with the development budget.
r 252. Si4-e the% agriculturavl proJects n 4Vol^. TT o-f the Plan hav-eA....' -- r -- -- - - J -†L--_ - -. , AL &C
received only cursory technical and economic appraisal it will require afairly 1-are; st-af f in- th-- Plc-anni-g Section to overwcm -6 1ack, ovA project
level analysis in the Second Plan. The Planning Section should have as-adLUL nucleus of senior economists working or. macro=plan.ning proJULems andlstaff members deployed in plannlng cells in large Divisions in theMinistry (WDTID, Production Division) and inr key parastatals (AFCO). Also,a few three to five member mobile planning teams are needed for field workon S C4.a a'*VJ pr LO - 6 * *A A * VS Dg*ato *Lsc h SLumbawan UCgVa C deveUlCLL
problems, as well as reviewing the progress of on-going agricultural proj-ects, in close .ooperationwCrL.. with eg,. onal an' src Gt teasC .
25. 'IUULL . .uh WoU.U We desirable 'or the recouen'edU mUULeL± r.Lan-
ning Teams to help develop district and regional agricultural plans there.Ls neither tiLme nor m.anpower l.a he Second PlU an periLodu to UUVeUvlo a mU.LLt-
tude of village plans, 66 district plans and 17 regional agriculturalplans. LLLstea'u, iLt 'Ls recouwendUu that the mobile plar,nnng teamU identify
key problems and concentrate on key crop programs, cotton, tobacco, tea,etc., and on plan Irpl"nLLLULJ.U duLiLLg the remUaLinder of the Second Plan.In addition to the mobile planning team there is a need for a farm manage-ment team to clarify the technical and economic aspects or some or themore important annual cropping systems, particularly crops with peak labordemands. Tnese data will be useru; in revising crop priorities and inproviding even the least qualified extension worker with information on grossreturns to family labor for various crops. Tne farm management team canalso provide insights to researchers on new lines of research and offerjudgments on the likely probability of new innovations from researchstations.
254. Some of the problems which should receive priority attentionby the Planning Section in the Ministry ot Agriculture are:
(a) evaluation of the national crop priorities in order tointroduce flexibility in crop priorities at the regionl.,district, and local levels. This flexibility should beheavily - but not solely - based on economic payoffsat the farm level rather than on technical criteria oron the basis of some-national objectives. The refinementof crop priorities at the district level is likely tolead to two or three commodities- which can be emphasizedby each District Agricultural Team;
- 77 -
ass^8isting2 diatri4cc teams prepar-ing, a. product-ion. a,mipal;gn
for one or two high priority caslh crops. These plansinclude '&' La.-lu 1.Ld iLaO pi ysJL.fL inptJL * LL LUU4sr Uio storage,
credit, etc.;
(c) an early review of the 1970/71 budget witn a.arhasis onincorporatnig manpower, developmenu and recurrent estizlatits.This exercise will help planners to move awav from the mrainlyfinancial oLientation of VoL. II of -she rlan;
(d) appraising the manpower requirements of parastatals care-fully and devising procedures :0o allow orderly iatching olscarce manpower supply to demand;
(e) a review of all sLate farms and rephasing state farms i.n iCnewith available managerial and technical competence and profit-ability;
(f) assisting in the development of an integrated cotton product-ion campaign with special emphasis on the four main cottonproducing regions;
(g) establishment of a Dairy Working Party (with the aid ofhigh level technical assistance) to lay out a strategy fordairy development for the 1970/80 period. Until theworking party report is prepared and a governmental reviewTof the report completed, the myriad of dairy projects inVol. II of the Plan should be held in abeyance;
(h) the establishment of a Livestock Working Party to accomplishthe same objectives as the Dairy Working Party above. Fur-ther livestock projects should only be undertaken after thegovernment has formulated a strategy for livestock develop-ment;
(i) a technical-economic analysis of the Kahe irrigation scheme;
(j) a review of animal powered mechanization in order to determinehow to break bottlenecks and expand animal powered tools andequipment. This review should lead to policy decisions which,hopefully, will strengthen TAMTU by the addition of qualifiedgraduates, and will allow it to focus on research and develop-ment, while other organizations - e.g. Ujamaa villages, villagecarpenters and blacksmiths - manufacture hand tools and equip-ment.
ST.ATISTICAL APPENDIX
INDEX,.
Tha le Nko .
1.Crop 'Hubnbdry Quar Inverage 1960-6 to 1968.u
2. Value and Perce tagc of Pr-I ncipal and Tohai Food ImpoDrts8, .962-l96f-.
a/ imports net oI' rm-e>xoorts and inclIding imports from other nembers of the Fi:4.TotaL food imports ame defined as "food and live zniimals plus animal a-d vegetable oils and fatsa'(sitc code O plus Li).
b/ Includirg Zanzibar.
Source: East, African Trade Rieports.
*.3S ;L6'4951tufl.t bIttt UT'Pl&¶d o W Ppww m.q c-o sijat noTaq 6. A
PolJ.d wid n as qv-d 9-L :0veitJSa .Ziaa 11 '0-fl tds. ~r- i t Itoat (itoqi n PflCv:>9D/6
oqX o~ 596 d o *dwx:s .(tu 11 *i 'OZ Pt 661 t *dd'I d1-- tiLt 3-@-'IA 69flS3 *1aiftU4 ' Fi,ir;Iroi; jjzr- tt,li
.1 *Jtq( *C S~fi *uq;'S9i 6t S sT' 'hr.- ;iO. /}*1. -d 'qi pta tf S Iqu 'b 1 61 'i so a '"'n =s t
V Derived frri a) data on regional exters:on staff deploynent supplieed by the Adm.-idstration Personnel end Planning Division of the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Cocp.erasives;b) G.D.P. target o-itp.ts were est.imated frcm trie Plan, Vol. 1, see Table I, cols. VIII and II.
2/ Extersion staff uir.ts were calculated to account for differential wrork capacities based on training and experience. The following coefficients were used: SAO/SVO/A3/VO/TO/CFO/SFO * 2.0F.O. - 1.5L. FF. * 1.0li.A. * 0.53/ Output targets exclude those for wheat and sugar, where technical staflf will be provided by the Production Division, Ministry of Agriculture ard by KAFCG (w-:.tv pr.ivate fir-ns) respectively.
Outputs have been aLllocated between regions on the basis of a) rarketed production data reported in the Annual Reports of Regional Agricultural Officers, wan b) rc tobacco and tea,regional production programis and staff allocations. Estate coffee production is not expected to contribute to incremeraal output over the Plan period.
Table 5: AGRICUURAL THANPG72R: 19697O EST3ABLISE-P IT, KEDSTTRY OF AGTICULTURE,FCOI) A:.I' COOPEI I TVYSa
A6-ministration, CooMerative lia ter Develonment andPersonnel andF Plan- Division .SettlementJ/ Divisions M4inistry Totalsning Divisionsb. and Cooperative CcmriEssiork
1969 Vacancies rema:iningunfillen by June 1970 166 9 112 287
New Post3, :L969/70 356 :120 25 503
1969/70 EstablishLment 9,33,65 549 1,08L 11,627
L/J The totl. e.t!iliz'ent inlu6es :-<me liCo non---ricultmral positior( e staff etc.) ands Esimvirt.upRl1y untrained~ Field. Assistants. Technical and Prcfessionnl staff' at AssIstant FJild Offi,-er and
above reprecentled only 1tO~ of all sta.ff in pocs1% in April 19069.
:L~lucides staff for a) Acricuilture, F'ood and Advisocry -Services Division; b) Prcduction, revelopment. andTechnical Services Division; e-) N~atural Resources Division and ci) Research and TraiLning Di-vision
TLhe Settlement and 71'>t~er rDevelopcment Divisions were transferred f'rc.m the former Ministr y of lnsSett eT eit and We ter Development in March, 19 69.. h eteetDvso a endsaddav 2,f
transferred to other Divisions, especially the FProduction, and Agricultture Divisions.
Notes: The c-rowth rates were used to aalnilte axiinal inta' es into training insti-tutions so as to aChievethe obJective 3f Tanzanianization by 1980. The estiMated intalkes then infform.e6 the cinoize of in-vestmcent proj-ets for agricultural train-ing which are incorporated in the Plan.
1/ Aissumes a decision to retain 26 places in. the Faculty of Agriculture, Malcererz Unive:rsity College,from tlhe July 1970 intake onwards. 10% training wastage is assumed throughout.
2/ Assumes Morogoro intake rises from 18 in July, 1969 to 60 in .July 1970.
3/ Assumes Morogoro intake rises to 80 in July 1971.
4/ Based on data from Manpower Planning Unit, Developmert Plan. Overseas students studying agriculture =126, Less a) 35 reading sub-degree level courses b) 58 students at Makerere incLuded above = 33 - 3training wastage = 30 + 3 1 0 per annum.
5/ Assumes Morogoro intake can rise to 100 in February, 1970.
6/ Assumes decision taken to decentralize diploma training aLt the several certificate schools.
,'aopower gap 104-2?g Th6-32. 179-33% 127-20 85-12,9
Notesr r / Agricultu-re -raduate3 In 'Th5s ta2ie cir,cldes with catcgZr'es 0.02.63 Agricultural Sngineers, G.22.90 Biologeiusand Animal Scientists n.e.c., C-i,.2C A_rc,norists, 0.23.30 Horttulturists and 0.23.50 Soil Scientists. In addition,estinated deman. includes agricultural econonists and achool science teachers specialising in agriculture.
2/ At 1.534 per arnn o (seo ?an, Vol. IV).
No wateage rates for expatriates -;ere availahle fron Devplan. Aseumed that one-half expatriates serve one two-yeartour, 25' complete three ye..rs and 256 zc.rplete four years.
?/ 4ew posts are based on a) a Miniatry request for technical assistance for new posts over the plan period;b) Dis-isional requests for new pcsts related to plan pro3octs in the year 1969/70 not co7ered in a), andc) demanl for graduates for a-rIcultural teaching posts not otherwise identified, crmprising (i) the newAgriculture Faculty-13 Pxpatri.-es and up to 36 tutorial fellc-ws (UN-SCo: Higher Agricultural Education,M7arch 1969) and (iil Ministry Training institutions: 199 additional teach-ing positions (IBRD/FAO R9eorton Agricultural Education, Jure 1SCY). Total reduceod to 180, to be recruited over last four years of tbeplan.
Crude estimates were made for these activ-ities; the TBaD/FAO estimate of 181) Posts by 1979/80 appears teclow from information supplied by parastatal organizations; the figure used is an estimate ofdemand generated by new proFrama etc. by 1974.
Estim.ted that 35 U.K. nationals on OSAS terms will retire. Any reengaged on other tens would beincluded within the figure for new overseas reoroitnent.
Table 11: SUPPLY AND D A1D ESTIMATES FOFL AGPJCULTURE DIPLOMATES, L969-T7
_ 'I 1969 1R97 Kidl7 =7 T-Ra I 7l' Midli7 19 o73 Md-I7'7l- ~i-9 "'id :-'- - 'ff~~-T~ I77M- - dI970 P0/7 T W I - 1971727 7 T--7 1- 197277Y TI7T ----- --Tid973 7Ii
Notes: 1/ At 1.83t p.r. / The closing of the manpower gap by 1974 may be unduly optimistic.
Ministry figures which have been used in tliLs table understate2/ Sme assimptions ais in Table 1t0. totaL posts by over 100 compared to the Devplan calculations
in Volumle IV of the Plan; the figures for expatriates ink postAAssued that 13 U.X. natLonals on OSAS terms will retire in 1969/70. are also considerably lower than in Volume IV. We have also
aassIed that an enlarged dipleria stream cani emerge (probably
I New Posts for 19659/70 based on reelests by Ministry dIvistons, especially Productio. DivieiLon. from Horogorc) by December 1972, whereas Volume IV assumes
xpaision from 1970-714 follows the Ministry's planning decision of 9.6% p.a. increasie. this will not occur until a year later. These discreparicies
Detai.led staffing projections on the basis of individual projects were not available, at sholld be eliminited in the ciurrnt review being carried out
the time of the Mission's visit. by the Ministry's Planning Unit.
The IERD/FA0 Report estimrates 1979/80 demarnd at 155 positLons. However, current policy
for secondary education requires over half that figure in the next 3-4 yearsm TSTC's&-d 25 second,ry schools teaching agriLculture eith diplomate teachers), Manpower data
is particularly weak for parastatiLLs. The Sisal Ccrporation and Tea Atithority alonec
have indicated a cdemand aor over 100 aidditional diplomates between themt before the ondof the Plan period. The 1979/8c0 figure has bean cautiously advanced to) 1973/74.
MAPI
GAND!A I---1K-------JTANZANIA 4
BuADIc 1 OR/ r , K EN A hi REGIONS AND DISTRICTS
F? %v -4 N c, 4., R~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~egion boundariesN% R A P A Districl boundar es
ACE> mt2~~~~~~._. inerrZZa boundaries~
t r~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ '¾ '! .: -, - -- Proposd r'3Uoy_A 44bonds S H I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~N AN'-G A ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ lVinYod
| ;Qt,;1",, | t! ,ONDDA Ka AV~~~~~~~~~~~~I'>ANJARO.r4@
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UC 4- Nw D A~ ,/, cr o ,A K E 4 TANZAN)A 4 ! . L 8 d l .O<\ 1 '2z~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- ~~~~~~~~ S ~~IsohyetoJi InteryMos. X) H 9.4 rUAL h f 8 \} ! ,,ICF ,f,r,~ t ao0/ \' - Over 2600
1,, . X Z r j . ;---. \{1,>, - ,, - - -> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- S > ; - av,; ;-o~~~~~~~~~
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bilLES~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~b DAR ES
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JANUARY 1970 IBRD-2803~~~4
MAP 3
UGANDA~~~~~~~~~~~~ -~~~LA J<KE I"TANZANIA 4 V I C T 0 __A__K_E_N_Y_
' ;~~iV I TO RId t-azt 6~ 'KEN Y APOTENTIAL LAlND USE
FRW AN DAX3, jP oaI 0loo 200 3 300
~~-~~~~~-Z~~~~s I ~~~~~s' ~~KILOM'ETERSI I I~~~~~~~~~~~2O O O ~ 0
.0 o~~~~~~~~~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ I ~GROLJP OF SOILS
/~~~~~~<' 4 I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ jjj [Ilo~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~(ame, 1i-titec i raing for
/ I I /11 L.J cattle~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~,II ibl.Oy forestry itt
Ei U .~~~~~~~~~~,Iu- N D I Soil, '~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~he'e Wile C'.ppilq~~~~~~Sis nhr ltte rppngiI rfu~~~~~~~~~l . 6 . A j r," ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~possible.*i *'r~~~~~~~~~~~~.~~~~>, ~~~~~~~ I (~~~~~Ranching, gamen, sonnet nies
L1
K' I L MA 01 YARd I (n~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~miec "croppin r h soirghum.,~ ~ ~ ~~~~~r millet, costor, gro-d-uls
45 ~~~L-~~~,7-----4-4l- ,IfIIi i . ,iz 5. .i.where lo. rait-'A~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ --. 10 zu Hidep
Dadomo (~~~~~~~ji~~~~ £~~~/" ~~~~ o r I~Sos cf ow to medium len t IydApando ziba, C) .,th mode,cte p.te-fial~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~nOaron atnta
cci ~~~~~~ It~~~~~ "'- ,,,a ~~~~~~~~~~~~. L sal. grocedniats, sorglunni,~~~~~~~~~~~Sial golin.,ts S19.m'us A ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ma 50oy0, castleW,catr
5.:~~~~~~~~~~~~~ K.Ins,/M0onogrt DA4R ES SALAAM cattion co5511-, beans, Pas-
on s,1 ~~ ~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~6 )i' ( [Soils cl medium to highfriltDEMOCRATIC K .<~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~iim ~ ~ ~ ~~~~-- I ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~ II~~~~~~~ nigh parental.~~~~~~wthh'g ptetllIDEMOCIR c~~~~~O. r Oto 4(S~ ., - iArbico coffee, henat, pyr,e-
R E 'P IJ 6 ;~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~u 'Irez hrum, bancnas, poratoes,.OF THE ~ ~ ~ ~~~> 7 o' 'o / ~~~~~~~~~----- ~~~~~-rc-~~~~-,~~~ u mono, onions, aegetablrns,,',onins egtabes
-- .~~~~~~- ~~~ ~~~\ iw,, / ~~~~~~~~~ 1 coffer, pastutes, coconuts,~~~~~~~cofe, a wes ccoosspices at low altitudes.)
J ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~<I / ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~X 7 ,7 0 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 4 sits of Iota feirtility in alreasV~~~~~ B <~~~~~~~~ ii nit0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ o2 f hi igh rai,nfall
lath nyu 6 , (I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~dO no~~~~~~e, olbusto coffee, banatnas,I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~timber.)
,ZAMBIA - ' r ' /46 0 u /i ~~~~ ~~5 - nVairs aluo-a or coli- taf
